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DOE OSTI2023

Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Coarse Woody Debris Decomposition Assessment Tool: Model validation and application

Coarse woody debris (CWD) is a significant component of the forest biomass pool; hence a model is warranted to predict CWD decomposition and its role in forest carbon (C) and nutrient cycling under varying management and climatic conditions. A process-based model, CWDDAT (Coarse Woody Debris Decomposition Assessment Tool) was calibrated and validated using data from the FACE (Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) Wood Decomposition Experiment utilizing pine ( Pinus taeda ), aspen ( Populous tremuloides ) and birch ( Betula papyrifera ) on nine Experimental Forests (EF) covering a range of climate, hydrology, and soil conditions across the continental USA. The model predictions were evaluated against measured FACE log mass loss over 6 years. Four widely applied metrics of model performance demonstrated that the CWDDAT model can accurately predict CWD decomposition. The R 2 (squared Pearson’s correlation coefficient) between the simulation and measurement was 0.80 for the model calibration and 0.82 for the model validation ( P <0.01). The predicted mean mass loss from all logs was 5.4% lower than the measured mass loss and 1.4% lower than the calculated loss. The model was also used to assess the decomposition of mixed pine-hardwood CWD produced by Hurricane Hugo in 1989 on the Santee Experimental Forest in South Carolina, USA. The simulation reflected rapid CWD decomposition of the forest in this subtropical setting. The predicted dissolved organic carbon (DOC) derived from the CWD decomposition and incorporated into the mineral soil averaged 1.01 g C m -2 y -1 over the 30 years. The main agents for CWD mass loss were fungi (72.0%) and termites (24.5%), the remainder was attributed to a mix of other wood decomposers. These findings demonstrate the applicability of CWDDAT for large-scale assessments of CWD dynamics, and fine-scale considerations regarding the fate of CWD carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Field Emission Mitigation in CEBAF SRF Cavities Using Deep Learning

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) operates hundreds of superconducting radio frequency (SRF) cavities in its two main linear accelerators. Field emission can occur when the cavities are set to high operating RF gradients and is an ongoing operational challenge. This is especially true in newer, higher gradient SRF cavities. Field emission results in damage to accelerator hardware, generates high levels of neutron and gamma radiation, and has deleterious effects on CEBAF operations. So, field emission reduction is imperative for the reliable, high gradient operation of CEBAF that is required by experimenters. Here we explore the use of deep learning architectures via multilayer perceptron to simultaneously model radiation measurements at multiple detectors in response to arbitrary gradient distributions. These models are trained on collected data and could be used to minimize the radiation production through gradient redistribution. This work builds on previous efforts in developing machine learning (ML) models, and is able to produce similar model performance as our previous ML model without requiring knowledge of the field emission onset for each cavity.

Ahammed, K.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Field Emission Mitigation in CEBAF SRF Cavities Using Deep Learning

Ahammed, K.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of Type I Interferon Inhibition by Viral Proteins: Ebola Virus as a Case Study

Type I interferons (IFNs) are cytokines with both antiviral properties and protective roles in innate immune responses to viral infection. They induce an antiviral cellular state and link innate and adaptive immune responses. Yet, viruses have evolved different strategies to inhibit such host responses. One of them is the existence of viral proteins which subvert type I IFN responses to allow quick and successful viral replication, thus, sustaining the infection within a host. We propose mathematical models to characterise the intra-cellular mechanisms involved in viral protein antagonism of type I IFN responses, and compare three different molecular inhibition strategies. We study the Ebola viral protein, VP35, with this mathematical approach. Approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo, together with experimental data and the mathematical models proposed, are used to perform model calibration, as well as model selection of the different hypotheses considered. Finally, we assess if model parameters are identifiable and discuss how such identifiability can be improved with new experimental data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Addressing deep array effects and impacts to wake steering with the cumulative-curl wake model

Abstract. Wind farm design and analysis heavily rely on computationally efficient engineering models that are evaluated many times to find an optimal solution. A recent article compared the state-of-the-art Gauss-curl hybrid (GCH) model to historical data of three offshore wind farms. Two points of model discrepancy were identified therein: poor wake predictions for turbines experiencing a lot of wakes and wake interactions between two turbines over long distances. The present article addresses those two concerns and presents the cumulative-curl (CC) model. Comparison of the CC model to high-fidelity simulation data and historical data of three offshore wind farms confirms the improved accuracy of the CC model over the GCH model in situations with large wake losses and wake recovery over large inter-turbine distances. Additionally, the CC model performs comparably to the GCH model for single- and fewer-turbine wake interactions, which were already accurately modeled. Lastly, the CC model has been implemented in a vectorized form, greatly reducing the computation time for many wind conditions. The CC model now enables reliable simulation studies for both small and large offshore wind farms at a low computational cost, thereby making it an ideal candidate for wake-steering optimization and layout optimization.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1989

Turbulent hydrocarbon combustions kinetics - Stochastic modeling and verification

Idealized reactors, that are designed to ensure perfect mixing and are used to generate the combustion kinetics for complex hydrocarbon fuels, may depart from the ideal and influence the kinetics model performance. A complex hydrocarbon kinetics model that was established by modeling a jet-stirred combustor (JSC) as a perfectly stirred reactor (PSR), is reevaluated with a simple stochastic process in order to introduce the unmixedness effect quantitatively into the reactor system. It is shown that the comparisons of the predictions and experimental data have improved dramatically with the inclusion of the unmixedness effect in the rich combustion region. The complex hydrocarbon kinetics is therefore verified to be mixing effect free and be applicable to general reacting flow calculations.

Wang, T. S.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Hydrostatic Stress Effect on the Yield Behavior of Inconel 100

Classical metal plasticity theory assumes that hydrostatic stress has negligible effect on the yield and postyield behavior of metals. Recent reexaminations of classical theory have revealed a significant effect of hydrostatic stress on the yield behavior of various geometries. Fatigue tests and nonlinear finite element analyses (FEA) of Inconel 100 (IN100) equal-arm bend specimens and new monotonic tests and nonlinear finite element analyses of IN100 smooth tension, smooth compression, and double-edge notch tension (DENT) test specimens have revealed the effect of internal hydrostatic tensile stresses on yielding. Nonlinear FEA using the von Mises (yielding is independent of hydrostatic stress) and the Drucker-Prager (yielding is linearly dependent on hydrostatic stress) yield functions were performed. A new FEA constitutive model was developed that incorporates a pressure-dependent yield function with combined multilinear kinematic and multilinear isotropic hardening using the ABAQUS user subroutine (UMAT) utility. In all monotonic tensile test cases, the von Mises constitutive model, overestimated the load for a given displacement or strain. Considering the failure displacements or strains for the DENT specimen, the Drucker-Prager FEM s predicted loads that were approximately 3% lower than the von Mises values. For the failure loads, the Drucker Prager FEM s predicted strains that were up to 35% greater than the von Mises values. Both the Drucker-Prager model and the von Mises model performed equally-well in simulating the equal-arm bend fatigue test.

Allen, Phillip A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Leveraging Improvements in Precipitation Measuring from GPM Mission to Achieve Prediction Improvements in Climate, Weather and Hydrometeorology

The main scientific goal of the GPM mission, currently planned for start in the 2007 time frame, is to investigate important scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing Operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US and the National Space Development Agency in Japan. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international partners and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what ultimately is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of this mission as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. In this presentation, an overview of the GPM mission design will be presented, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk will address how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. Improved hydrometeorological forecasting will be possible by using continuous global precipitation observations to obtain better closure in water budgets and to generate more realistic forcing of the models themselves to achieve more accurate estimates of interception, infiltration, evaporation/transpiration fluxes, storage, and runoff.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Anticipated Improvements in Precipitation Physics and Understanding of Water Cycle from GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late-2007 to early-2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation s orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, involving existing, pending, projected, and under-study partnerships which will link NASA and NOAA in the US, NASDA in Japan, ESA in Europe, ISRO in India, CNES in France, and possibly AS1 in Italy, KARI in South Korea, CSA in Canada, and AEB in Brazil. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international collaborators and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of GPM as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. An overview of the GPM mission design is given, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk addresses how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. These improvements become possible by using more accurate, more microphysically-centric, more frequent, and fully global precipitation observations to achieve better water budget closure and to provide more realistic forcing and assessment of prediction models.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Forebody/Inlet of the Joint Strike Fighter Tested at Low Speeds

As part of a national cooperative effort to develop a multinational fighter aircraft, a model of a Joint Strike Fighter concept was tested in several NASA Lewis Research Center wind tunnels at low speeds over a range of headwind velocities and model attitudes. This Joint Strike Fighter concept, which is scheduled to go into production in 2005, will greatly improve the range, capability, maneuverability, and survivability of fighter aircraft, and the production program could ultimately be worth $100 billion. The test program was a team effort between Lewis and Lockheed Martin Tactical Aircraft Systems. Testing was completed in September 1997, several weeks ahead of schedule, allowing Lockheed additional time to review the results and analysis data before the next test and resulting in significant cost savings for Lockheed. Several major milestones related to dynamic and steady-state data acquisition and overall model performance were reached during this model test. Results from this program will contribute to both the concept demonstration phase and the production aircraft.

Johns, Albert L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Advanced UVOIR Mirror Technology Development for Very Large Space Telescopes

Objective of this work is to define and initiate a long-term program to mature six inter-linked critical technologies for future UVOIR space telescope mirrors to TRL6 by 2018 so that a viable flight mission can be proposed to the 2020 Decadal Review. (1) Large-Aperture, Low Areal Density, High Stiffness Mirrors: 4 to 8 m monolithic & 8 to 16 m segmented primary mirrors require larger, thicker, stiffer substrates. (2) Support System:Large-aperture mirrors require large support systems to ensure that they survive launch and deploy on orbit in a stress-free and undistorted shape. (3) Mid/High Spatial Frequency Figure Error:A very smooth mirror is critical for producing a high-quality point spread function (PSF) for high-contrast imaging. (4) Segment Edges:Edges impact PSF for high-contrast imaging applications, contributes to stray light noise, and affects the total collecting aperture. (5) Segment-to-Segment Gap Phasing:Segment phasing is critical for producing a high-quality temporally stable PSF. (6) Integrated Model Validation:On-orbit performance is determined by mechanical and thermal stability. Future systems require validated performance models. We are pursuing multiple design paths give the science community the option to enable either a future monolithic or segmented space telescope.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

NASA NTRS2012

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

Models are key elements of space weather forecasting. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) hosts a broad range of state-of-the-art space weather models and enables access to complex models through an unmatched automated web-based runs-on-request system. Model output comparisons with observational data carried out by a large number of CCMC users open an unprecedented mechanism for extensive model testing and broad community feedback on model performance. The CCMC also evaluates model's prediction ability as an unbiased broker and supports operational model selections. The CCMC is organizing and leading a series of community-wide projects aiming to evaluate the current state of space weather modeling, to address challenges of model-data comparisons, and to define metrics for various user s needs and requirements. Many of CCMC models are continuously running in real-time. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in developing and maintaining real-time systems. CCMC staff expertise and trusted relations with model owners enable to keep up to date with rapid advances in model development. The information gleaned from the real-time calculations is tailored to specific mission needs. Model forecasts combined with data streams from NASA and other missions are integrated into an innovative configurable data analysis and dissemination system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov) that is accessible world-wide. The talk will review the latest progress and discuss opportunities for addressing operational space weather needs in innovative and collaborative ways.

Kuznetsova, M.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗

NASA NTRS2024

Modeling Atmospheric Brown Carbon in the GISS ModelE Earth System Model

Brown carbon (BrC) is an absorbing organic aerosol (OA), primarily emitted through biomass burning (BB), which exhibits light absorption unique to both black carbon (BC) and other organic aerosols. Despite many field and laboratory studies seeking to constrain BrC properties, the radiative forcing (RF) of BrC is still highly uncertain. To better understand its climate impact, we introduced BrC to the One-Moment Aerosol (OMA) module of the GISS ModelE Earth system model (ESM). We assessed ModelE sensitivity to primary BrC processed through a novel chemical aging scheme and to secondary BrC formed from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Initial results show that BrC typically contributes a top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiative effect of 0.04 W m −2 . Sensitivity tests indicate that explicitly simulating BrC (separating it from other OAs), including secondary BrC, and simulating chemical bleaching of BrC contribute distinguishable radiative effects and should be accounted for in BrC schemes. This addition of prognostic BrC to ModelE allows greater physical and chemical complexity in OA representation with no apparent trade-off in model performance, as the evaluation of ModelE aerosol optical depth against Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieval data, with and without the BrC scheme, reveals similar skill in both cases. Thus, BrC should be explicitly simulated to allow more physically based chemical composition, which is crucial for more detailed OA studies like comparisons to in situ measurement campaigns. We include a summary of best practices for BrC representation within ModelE at the end of this paper.

brown carbon aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2020

Xyce Case Study

With the elimination of underground nuclear testing and declining defense budgets, science-based stockpile stewardship requires increased reliance on high performance modeling and simulation of weapon systems. Today's weapon systems are comprised of various electrical components and systems. As a result, there is a need for tools that will allow the use of massively parallel modeling and simulation techniques on high performance computers in existing and future weapons' electrical systems models. The Xyce Parallel Electronic Simulator is a SPICE (Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis)- compatible circuit simulator designed to run on large-scale parallel computing platforms, though it can also execute efficiently on a variety of architectures including single processor workstations. As a mature platform for large-scale parallel circuit simulation, Xyce supports standard capabilities available in commercial simulators, in addition to various devices and models specific to Sandia's needs. Specifically, Xyce aids in the design and verification of electrical and electronic circuits and systems prior to weapons' manufacturing and deployment.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2020

Xyce Case Study

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2026

Teleseismic Network Association with GENIE

In this report we investigate adapting the Graph Neural Interpretation Engine (GENIE), an associator developed for three-component dense monitoring networks, to regional to teleseismic association using a sparse network of array stations. We expand GENIE’s input features to include first-P detection time, azimuth, and slowness estimates. Additionally, we include a probability of detection (PDET) term which measures a station’s likelihood of detecting an event. To assess each feature’s relative importance, we train four models, each using an increasing set of node features and find that the PDET models perform the best. We define two measures of event complexity which demonstrate that all GENIE model versions perform better than the standard backprojection stack.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗