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At least 703 records · Page 39

Statistical analysis of multivariate atmospheric variables

Topics covered include: (1) estimation in discrete multivariate distributions; (2) a procedure to predict cloud cover frequencies in the bivariate case; (3) a program to compute conditional bivariate normal parameters; (4) the transformation of nonnormal multivariate to near-normal; (5) test of fit for the extreme value distribution based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (6) test of fit for continuous distributions based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (7) effect of correlated observations on confidence sets based upon chi-square statistics; and (8) generation of random variates from specified distributions.

Tubbs, J. D.↗

Evolution of Drop Size Distributions during Hurricane Harvey and Their Effects on Rain Intensity

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017, before exiting the state as a tropical storm on August 29, 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding over southeast Texas with some locations measuring more than 60 inches of rain. The Houston NEXRAD radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event and is utilized in this study to better understand the evolution of the drop size distribution (DSD) in the lower (liquid) portions of the storm and how changes in the DSD were tied to observed and measured changes in rain intensities. From the KHGX dual-polarimetric radar data several DSD parameters were retrieved, including three different rain rate retrievals, as well as the mass-weighted mean-drop diameter Dm, and the normalized intercept parameter NW of the gamma distribution. Two of the rain retrievals are popular hybrid approaches, where reflectivity, differential and specific differential phase are used. The other is an attenuation-based retrieval. In a previous study, it was found that both hybrid retrievals significantly underestimated the rainfall during the heaviest rain periods, while the attenuation-based retrieval, with proper adjustment, agreed quite well with a large network of gauges from the Harris County Flood Warning System. Using Dm and NW as proxies for drop size and concentration, respectively, we will show that the heaviest rain intensities were associated in areas of the storm where there was a large concentration of large drops present. It is envisaged that results of this study can be used to develop a near-real-time tuning of the attenuation-based retrieval, thus providing timely, and possibly life-saving warnings during inundating rainfall.

David B. Wolff↗

Evolution of dynamo-generated magnetic fields in accretion disks around compact and young stars

Geometrically thin, optically thick, turbulent accretion disks are believed to surround many stars. Some of them are the compact components of close binaries, while the others are throught to be T Tauri stars. These accretion disks must be magnetized objects because the accreted matter, whether it comes from the companion star (binaries) or from a collapsing molecular cloud core (single young stars), carries an embedded magnetic field. In addition, most accretion disks are hot and turbulent, thus meeting the condition for the MHD turbulent dynamo to maintain and amplify any seed field magnetic field. In fact, for a disk's magnetic field to persist long enough in comparison with the disk viscous time it must be contemporaneously regenerated because the characteristic diffusion time of a magnetic field is typically much shorter than a disk's viscous time. This is true for most thin accretion disks. Consequently, studying magentic fields in thin disks is usually synonymous with studying magnetic dynamos, a fact that is not commonly recognized in the literature. Progress in studying the structure of many accretion disks was achieved mainly because most disks can be regarded as two-dimensional flows in which vertical and radial structures are largely decoupled. By analogy, in a thin disk, one may expect that vertical and radial structures of the magnetic field are decoupled because the magnetic field diffuses more rapidly to the vertical boundary of the disk than along the radius. Thus, an asymptotic method, called an adiabatic approximation, can be applied to accretion disk dynamo. We can represent the solution to the dynamo equation in the form B = Q(r)b(r,z), where Q(r) describes the field distribution along the radius, while the field distribution across the disk is included in the vector function b, which parametrically depends on r and is normalized by the condition max (b(z)) = 1. The field distribution across the disk is established rapidly, while the radial distribution Q(r) evolves on a considerably longer timescale. It is this evolution that is the subject of this paper.

Stepinski, Tomasz F.↗

An Inverse Chance-constrained Approach to the Calibration of Robust Models

This paper proposes a strategy to calibrate computational models according to uncertain input-output data. To this end, uncertainty in the data is first quantified by creating adversarial data sets. Samples drawn from such sets are then mapped from the input-output space to the parameter space using an inverse mapping. This mapping minimizes the collective output spread of an ensemble of point predictions while satisfying a set of individual data-matching requirements. The distribution of the resulting parameter points, which often exhibits strong parameter dependencies, is then modeled using sliced-normals. The chance-constrained formulation used to learn this distribution enables the analyst to trade-off a greater likelihood for most of the data against a lower likelihood for some of the data thereby relaxing the conservatism of the calibrated model. This formulation not only neglects the worst-performing quantiles of each adversarial distribution but also eliminates the potentially serious effects that outliers might have on the resulting model. This calibration approach not only has a considerably lower computational cost than the standard forward approach but it also allows for the identification of suitable distribution classes, which in turn yield better calibrated models.

Calibration↗

Photocatalytic Active Radiation Measurements and Use

Photocatalytic materials are being used to purify air, to kill microbes, and to keep surfaces clean. A wide variety of materials are being developed, many of which have different abilities to absorb various wavelengths of light. Material variability, combined with both spectral illumination intensity and spectral distribution variability, will produce a wide range of performance results. The proposed technology estimates photocatalytic active radiation (PcAR), a unit of radiation that normalizes the amount of light based on its spectral distribution and on the ability of the material to absorb that radiation. Photocatalytic reactions depend upon the number of electron-hole pairs generated at the photocatalytic surface. The number of electron-hole pairs produced depends on the number of photons per unit area per second striking the surface that can be absorbed and whose energy exceeds the bandgap of the photocatalytic material. A convenient parameter to describe the number of useful photons is the number of moles of photons striking the surface per unit area per second. The unit of micro-einsteins (or micromoles) of photons per m2 per sec is commonly used for photochemical and photoelectric-like phenomena. This type of parameter is used in photochemistry, such as in the conversion of light energy for photosynthesis. Photosynthetic response correlates with the number of photons rather than by energy because, in this photochemical process, each molecule is activated by the absorption of one photon. In photosynthesis, the number of photons absorbed in the 400 700 nm spectral range is estimated and is referred to as photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). PAR is defined in terms of the photosynthetic photon flux density measured in micro-einsteins of photons per m2 per sec. PcAR is an equivalent, similarly modeled parameter that has been defined for the photocatalytic processes. Two methods to measure the PcAR level are being proposed. In the first method, a calibrated spectrometer with a cosine receptor is used to measure the spectral irradiance. This measurement, in conjunction with the photocatalytic response as a function of wavelength, is used to estimate the PcAR. The photocatalytic response function is determined by measuring photocatalytic reactivity as a function of wavelength. In the second method, simple shaped photocatalytic response functions can be simulated with a broad-band detector with a cosine receptor appropriately filtered to represent the spectral response of the photocatalytic material. This second method can be less expensive than using a calibrated spectrometer.

Davis, Bruce A.↗

The stellar composition of X-ray surveys from the Einstein Observatory

A new class of X-ray-luminous 'yellow' stellar objects which contributes significantly to the stellar log N-log S distribution, but which cannot be reconciled with normal G and K main-sequence stars. This identification results from a new analysis of the stellar content of three samples of X-ray-selected X-ray sources observed with the Einstein Observatory, namely the 'Medium Sensitivity Survey', the 'High Sensitivity Survey', and the 'Hyades Region Survey'. In this paper, both X-ray and optical properties of the stellar samples in these surveys are reported. The actual stellar content of the surveys is compared with predictions based on current knowledge of stellar X-ray luminosity functions and the stellar composition and spatial distribution in the Galaxy. It is shown that a plausible identification for the excess population of 'yellow' stars is with the active, RS CVn-like binaries.

Favata, F.↗

A dual frequency radar for ocean roughness sampling

A microwave technique for determining the roughness (rms wave height) of a randomly varying air-water interface has been developed theoretically, verified with laboratory wavetank studies and is currently being implemented for ocean surface measurements in a series of applications flight experiments. These aircraft observations will be near the Chesapeake Light Tower and will include a range of altitudes and sea conditions. The measurement concept involves cross-correlating the envelope fluctuations on two received carriers that are monochromatic when transmitted in a normal direction to the interface and are observed in a backscatter direction after reflection by the large number of randomly distributed specular points on the surface. The measured correlation coefficient (normalized covariance) as a function of carrier frequency separation will depend on the surface roughness, specifically the probability density function of the specular point height. Details of the flight system are discussed, and preliminary flight results are presented.

Weissman, D. E.↗

Finite difference procedure for boundary layers including effects of longitudinal and transverse curvatures

A second order viscous layer solution procedure has been developed that does in a consistent way include curvature effects and the corresponding normal pressure gradients. In the present system, the normal momentum equation is retained. The parabolic system of nonlinear partial differential equations is converted by linear finite differencing procedures to a system of linear algebraic equations and solved in primitive coordinates. The solutions have been shown to give smooth stable distributions for all the variables, most particularly the normal velocity which plays an important role in the interaction procedure. An algorithm for matching the viscous layer solution with a rotational characteristics outer solution has been developed.

Tassa, Y.↗

An improved method for the aerodynamic analysis of wing-body-tail configurations in subsonic and supersonic flow. Part 1: Theory and application

A new method has been developed for calculating the pressure distribution and aerodynamic characteristics of wing-body-tail combinations in subsonic and supersonic potential flow. A computer program has been developed to perform the numerical calculations. The configuration surface is subdivided into a large number of panels, each of which contains an aerodynamic singularity distribution. A constant source distribution is used on the body panels, and a vortex distribution having a linear variation in the streamwise direction is used on the wing and tail panels. The normal components of velocity induced at specified control points by each singularity distribution are calculated and make up the coefficients of a system of linear equations relating the strengths of the singularities to the magnitude of the normal velocities. The singularity strengths which satisfy the boundary condition of tangential flow at the control points for a given Mach number and angle of attack are determined by solving this system of equations using an interactive procedure. Once the singularity strengths are known, the pressure coefficients are calculated, and the forces and moments acting on the configuration determined by numerical integration.

Woodward, F. A.↗

Palmer Station, Antarctica: A Ground-Based Spaceflight Analog Suitable for Validation of Biomedical Countermeasures for Deep Space Missions

Astronauts are known to exhibit a variety of immunological alterations during spaceflight including changes in leukocyte distribution and plasma cytokine concentrations, a reduction in T-cell function, and subclinical reactivation of latent herpesviruses. These alterations are most likely due to mission-associated stressors including circadian misalignment, microgravity, isolation, altered nutrition, and increased exposure to cosmic radiation. Some of these stressors may also occur in terrestrial situations. This study sought to determine if crewmembers performing overwinter deployment at Palmer Station, Antarctica displayed similar immune alterations. The larger goal was to validate a ground analog suitable for the evaluation of countermeasures designed to protect astronauts during future deep space missions. For this pilot study, plasma, saliva, hair, and health surveys were collected from Palmer Station, Antarctica winterover participants at baseline, and at five overwinter timepoints. Twenty-six subjects consented to participate over the course of two seasons. Initial sample processing was performed at Palmer, and eventually stabilized samples were returned to the Johnson Space Center for analysis. A white blood cell differential was performed (real time) using a fingerstick blood sample to determine alterations in basic leukocyte subsets throughout the winterover. Plasma and saliva samples were analyzed for 30 and 13 cytokines, respectively. Saliva was analyzed for cortisol concentration and three latent herpesviruses (DNA by qPCR), EBV, HSV1, and VZV. Hair samples were analyzed for several hormones, as a measure of stress over prolonged periods of time. Voluntary surveys related to general health and adverse clinical events were distributed to participants. It is noteworthy that due to logistical constraints due to COVID-19, the baseline samples for each season were collected in Punta Arenas, Chile, after long international travel and during isolation. Therefore, the palmer pre mission samples may not reflect a true normal ‘baseline’. Minimal alterations were observed in leukocyte distribution during overwinter. The mean percentage of monocyte concentration elevated at one timepoint. Plasma G-CSF, IL1RA, MCP-1, MIP-1β, TNFα and VEGF were decreased during at least one overwinter timepoint, whereas RANTES was significantly increased. No statistically significant changes were observed in mean saliva cytokine concentrations. Salivary cortisol was substantially elevated throughout the entire winterover compared to baseline. Compared to shedding levels observed in healthy controls (23%), the percentage of participants who shed EBV was higher throughout all winterover timepoints (52-60%). Five subjects shed HSV1 during at least one timepoint throughout the season compared to no subjects shedding during pre-deployment. Finally, VZV reactivation, common in astronauts but exceptionally rare in ground-based stress analogs, was observed in one subject during pre-deployment and a different subject at WO2 and WO3. These pilot data, somewhat influenced by the COVID-19 situation, do suggest that participants at Palmer Station do undergo immunological alterations similar to, but likely in reduced magnitude, as those observed in astronauts. We suggest that overwinter at Palmer Station may be suitable test analog for spaceflight biomedical countermeasures designed to mitigate clinical risks for deep space missions.

Space↗

Improving the chi-squared approximation for bivariate normal tolerance regions

Let X be a two-dimensional random variable distributed according to N2(mu,Sigma) and let bar-X and S be the respective sample mean and covariance matrix calculated from N observations of X. Given a containment probability beta and a level of confidence gamma, we seek a number c, depending only on N, beta, and gamma such that the ellipsoid R = (x: (x - bar-X)'S(exp -1) (x - bar-X) less than or = c) is a tolerance region of content beta and level gamma; i.e., R has probability gamma of containing at least 100 beta percent of the distribution of X. Various approximations for c exist in the literature, but one of the simplest to compute -- a multiple of the ratio of certain chi-squared percentage points -- is badly biased for small N. For the bivariate normal case, most of the bias can be removed by simple adjustment using a factor A which depends on beta and gamma. This paper provides values of A for various beta and gamma so that the simple approximation for c can be made viable for any reasonable sample size. The methodology provides an illustrative example of how a combination of Monte-Carlo simulation and simple regression modelling can be used to improve an existing approximation.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

Wind tunnel force and pressure tests of a 21% thick general aviation airfoil with 20% aileron, 25% slotted flap and 10% slot-lip spoiler

Force and surface pressure distributions were measured for the 21% LS(1)-0421 modified airfoil fitted with 20% aileron, 25% slotted flap and 10% slot lip spoiler. All tests were conducted at a Reynolds number of 2.2 x 10 to the 6th power and a Mach number of 0.13. The lift, drag, pitching moments, control surface normal force and hinge moments, and surface pressure distributions are included in the results. Incremental performance of flap and aileron are discussed and compared to the GA(W)-2 airfoil. Spoiler control which shows a slight reversal tendency at high alpha, is examined.

Wentz, W. H., Jr.↗

The Normalization of Surface Anisotropy Effects Present in SEVIRI Reflectances by Using the MODIS BRDF Method

A modified version of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) algorithm is presented for use in the angular normalization of surface reflectance data gathered by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) aboard the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites. We present early and provisional daily nadir BRDFadjusted reflectance (NBAR) data in the visible and near-infrared MSG channels. These utilize the high temporal resolution of MSG to produce BRDF retrievals with a greatly reduced acquisition period than the comparable MODIS products while, at the same time, removing many of the angular perturbations present within the original MSG data. The NBAR data are validated against reflectance data from the MODIS instrument and in situ data gathered at a field location in Africa throughout 2008. It is found that the MSG retrievals are stable and are of high-quality across much of the SEVIRI disk while maintaining a higher temporal resolution than the MODIS BRDF products. However, a number of circumstances are discovered whereby the BRDF model is unable to function correctly with the SEVIRI observations-primarily because of an insufficient spread of angular data due to the fixed sensor location or localized cloud contamination.

SEVIRI↗

A multispectral technique to determine sea surface temperature using Nimbus 2 data.

Three channels of the Nimbus 2 five-channel Medium Resolution Infrared Radiometer have been employed in the development of a technique to determine sea surface temperature. Two of the channels in the 0.2-4.0 and 6.4-6.9 micron spectral regions are used to indicate a cloud-free line of sight and the third, a high signal-to-noise window channel (10-11 microns), measures the equivalent blackbody temperature (Tbb) which is a function of the thermal emission from the sea surface and the intervening atmosphere. Equivalent blackbody temperatures and normalized reflectance thresholds were established using frequency distributions from the 6.4-6.9 and 0.2-4.0 micron channels, respectively, to determine the existence of cloud-free conditions. The window Tbb's were compared with ship ocean temperature measurements for a one-month period over the western North Atlantic. This comparison revealed a plus or minus 1.5 K dispersion about the mean difference between the ship temperatures and window Tbb's between 31-34 N.

Shenk, W. E.↗

Scintillation in an earth-to-space propagation path.

Results of an experiment to measure the scintillation at a satellite from a ground-based laser transmitter. The GEOS-II satellite in a nearly circular orbit of 1250 km was illuminated by a ground-based laser tracking station using a 4880-A CW argon laser. A detector aboard the satellite measured the incident light and telemetered the data to recording equipment on the ground. Log-amplitude variance, probability distributions, and scintillation frequency distributions are derived from the data. The probability distribution is shown to be log-normal. Log-amplitude variance and normalized power spectral density are shown to be within the limits measured for stellar scintillation.-

Minott, P. O.↗

Electron energy distribution in a helium plasma created by nuclear radiations

An integral balance technique for calculation of the electron energy distribution in a radiation-induced plasma is described. Results predict W-values reasonably well and compare favorably with more complicated Monte-Carlo calculations. The distribution found differs from that in a normal electrical discharge and is of interest in radiation-pumped laser research.

Lo, R. H.↗