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At least 703 records · Page 39

Probabilistic reasoning for intelligent wind shear avoidance

A computerized intelligent cockpit aid can increase flight-crew awareness of wind shear, improving avoidance decisions. The FAA Windshear Training Aid (WTA) provides guidelines for assessing the risk of wind shear encounter from meteorological evidence. Use of these guidelines in the cockpit is complicated by uncertainty surrounding meteorological knowledge of wind shear. Bayesian network representation is discussed as a means of modeling this uncertain knowledge in a computer. A probabilistic model of the WTA guidelines using Bayesian network representation is presented. This model combines evidence from sources of varying reliability and incorporates results from meteorological studies of wind shear. The probabilistic model can provide flight crews with meaningful estimates of risk to aid their decisions, using evidence from a variety of sources and a base of meteorological knowledge.

Stratton, D. Alexander↗

Model reduction for the dynamics and control of large structural systems via neutral network processing direct numerical optimization

Three neural network processing approaches in a direct numerical optimization model reduction scheme are proposed and investigated. Large structural systems, such as large space structures, offer new challenges to both structural dynamicists and control engineers. One such challenge is that of dimensionality. Indeed these distributed parameter systems can be modeled either by infinite dimensional mathematical models (typically partial differential equations) or by high dimensional discrete models (typically finite element models) often exhibiting thousands of vibrational modes usually closely spaced and with little, if any, damping. Clearly, some form of model reduction is in order, especially for the control engineer who can actively control but a few of the modes using system identification based on a limited number of sensors. Inasmuch as the amount of 'control spillover' (in which the control inputs excite the neglected dynamics) and/or 'observation spillover' (where neglected dynamics affect system identification) is to a large extent determined by the choice of particular reduced model (RM), the way in which this model reduction is carried out is often critical.

Becus, Georges A.↗

Crop Model Improvement Reduces the Uncertainty of the Response to Temperature of Multi-Model Ensembles

To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT worldwide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures greater than 24 C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively.

damage assessment↗

On the Performance of Global Magnetohydrodynamic Models in the Earth's Magnetosphere

We study the performance of four magnetohydrodynamic models (BATS-R-US, GUMICS, LFM, Open GGCM) in the Earths magnetosphere. Using the Community Coordinated Modeling Centers Run-on-Request system, we compare model predictions with magnetic field measurements of the Cluster, Geotail and Wind spacecraft during a multiple substorm event. We also compare model cross polar cap potential results to those obtained from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network(SuperDARN) and the model magnetopause standoff distances to an empirical magnetopause model. The correlation coefficient (CC) and prediction efficiency (PE) metrics are used to objectively evaluate model performance quantitatively. For all four models, the best performance outside geosynchronous orbit is found on the dayside. Generally, the performance of models decreases steadily down stream from the Earth. On the dayside most CCs are above 0.5 with CCs for Bx and Bz close to 0.9 for three out of four models. In the magnetotail at a distance of about -130 Earth radii from Earth, the prediction efficiency of all models is below that of using an average value for the prediction with the exception of Bz. Bx is most often best predicted and correlated both on the dayside and the nightside close to the Earth whereas in the far tail the CC and PE for Bz are substantially higher than other components in all models. We also find that increasing the resolution or coupling an additional physics module does notautomatically increase the model performance in the magnetosphere.

geomagnetic tail↗

Hybrid Modeling for Complex Systems Health Management

The research work presents application of hybrid physics-informed machine learning to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage. The powertrain model consists of Li-ion batteries, electronic speed controller with pulse-width modulation, and brush-less DC motor with connected propeller. Results obtained from combination of laboratory and simulation tests are discussed in this work.

PINNS↗

Physics Informed Neural Nets for Systems Health Management

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Development in data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. The research work presents application of physics-informed neural nets application to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗

Model Based Approaches for Fault Detection, Prognostics, Decision Making in Complex Systems

The presentation discusses application of model based approaches to complex systems. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗

Towards A Flexible Data Fusion Tool Incorporating Model, Satellite, Regulatory Monitor and Low-Cost Sensor Data for Air Quality Estimation and Forecasting

Air quality managers, researchers, and concerned community scientists around the world have a variety of sources for air quality information, ranging from traditional regulatory monitoring networks and atmospheric chemistry models to remote sensing data products and low-cost sensor networks. However, the ability to incorporate data from these disparate sources and synthesize a comprehensive overview of the local air quality situation remains a considerable barrier for many end-users. This presentation will outline a tool, currently in development, which will address this need using a flexible data fusion approach. The tool will make use of air quality forecast model outputs (primarily from the NASA GEOS-CF composition forecast modeling system), satellite remote sensing data (from instruments including MODIS, VIIRS, TROPOMI, plus TEMPO for the US when available), and in-situ data from official regulatory and/or low-cost networks where these are available. The ability to incorporate data from low-cost sensor networks will be a key feature of the tool; it will make use of other available data sources to calibrate the low-cost sensor data on a regional scale, then use these calibrated low-cost sensor data for localized updating to resolve finer-scale air quality patterns. Development of this tool is taking place with the help of national and international partners and end-user groups, coordinated through the US EPA and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The tool is being developed on the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform to facilitate integration of diverse data sources and free access by a broad community of end-users. Stewardship of the tool will be passed to US EPA and UNEP to support future activities with end-users in the US and around the world, and the tool itself will remain freely accessible. We hope that this tool will lower the barrier to entry for various user groups worldwide, including community scientists, who struggle to integrate disparate data sources to gain insight into their local air quality situations. This presentation will cover the early stages of the development of the tool, including the underlying methods and some pilot case studies in integrating low-cost sensor data.

global models↗

Results of APL rain gauge network measurements in mid-Atlantic coast region and comparisons of distributions with CCIR models

In this effort are described cumulative rain rate distributions for a network of nine tipping bucket rain gauge systems located in the mid-Atlantic coast region in the vicinity of the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia. The rain gauges are situated within a gridded region of dimensions of 47 km east-west by 70 km north-south. Distributions are presented for the individual site measurements and the network average for the year period June 1, 1986 through May 31, 1987. A previous six year average distribution derived from measurements at one of the site locations is also presented. Comparisons are given of the network average, the CCIR (International Radio Consultative Committee) climatic zone, and the CCIR functional model distributions, the latter of which approximates a log normal at the lower rain rate and a gamma function at the higher rates.

Goldhirsh, Julius↗

The prediction of nonlinear dynamic loads on helicopters from flight variables using artificial neural networks

A method of indirectly monitoring component loads through common flight variables is proposed which requires an accurate model of the underlying nonlinear relationships. An artificial neural network (ANN) model learns relationships through exposure to a database of flight variable records and corresponding load histories from an instrumented military helicopter undergoing standard maneuvers. The ANN model, utilizing eight standard flight variables as inputs, is trained to predict normalized time-varying mean and oscillatory loads on two critical components over a range of seven maneuvers. Both interpolative and extrapolative capabilities are demonstrated with agreement between predicted and measured loads on the order of 90 percent to 95 percent. This work justifies pursuing the ANN method of predicting loads from flight variables.

Cook, A. B.↗

A model to compare performance of space and ground network support of low-Earth orbiters

This article compares the downlink performance in a gross average sense between space and ground network support of low-Earth orbiters. The purpose is to assess what the demand for DSN support of future small, low-cost missions might be, if data storage for spacecraft becomes reliable enough and small enough to support the storage requirements needed to enable support only a fraction of the time. It is shown that the link advantage of the DSN over space reception in an average sense is enormous for low-Earth orbiters. The much shorter distances needed to communicate with the ground network more than make up for the speedup in data rate needed to compensate for the short contact times with the DSN that low-Earth orbiters have. The result is that more and more requests for DSN-only support of low-Earth orbiters can be expected.

Posner, E. C.↗

Contact Multigraph Routing: Overview and Implementation

In Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), the standard routing algorithm used to navigate time-varying networks has been Contact Graph Routing (CGR). In CGR, a globally distributed list of contacts, periods during which two DTN nodes may communicate, is used to construct a contact graph, in which contacts are vertices. A version of Dijkstra’s algorithm can then be used to find paths through this model of the timevarying network. However, since contact graphs may be large compared to the network, potentially growing with the square of the number of network nodes and linearly with the time interval represented, the resulting algorithm does not scale well with the size of the network or time. Any improvement to the routing algorithm will bring significant returns to scale. In a previous paper, we briefly introduced an alternative to the contact graph model for routing. This alternative model is based on a multigraph (a graph in which there may be multiple edges between a pair of vertices) where vertices represent network nodes instead of contacts. A version of Dijkstra’s algorithm in these multigraph models reduces the time needed to perform the same routing computations done in the existing CGR algorithm. Moreover, a modified version of Yen’s algorithm for multigraphs is included. Our variation of CGR, which we call Contact Multigraph Routing (CMR), provides an in-line replacement for the previously used pathfinding algorithms. This paper describes an implementation created based on the CMR approach, and experimental comparisons to traditional CGR are given. In addition, we explore some additional modifications to the routing pipeline traditionally assumed in CGR. These modifications range from the theoretical to the practical in terms of size and scope. We step forward our understanding of sheaftheoretic networking and describe how to model the routing pipeline using sheaves. We detail some enhanced route selection criteria that addresses some of the added complexity of DTNbased systems. We also include a future works section on future improvements and implementations that would be of service to the broader DTN community.

contact graph routing↗

Analysis of economics of a TV broadcasting satellite for additional nationwide TV programs

The influence of a TV broadcasting satellite, transmitting four additional TV networks was analyzed. It is assumed that the cost of the satellite systems will be financed by the cable TV system operators. The additional TV programs increase income by attracting additional subscribers. Two economic models were established: (1) each local network is regarded as an independent economic unit with individual fees (cost price model) and (2) all networks are part of one public cable TV company with uniform fees (uniform price model). Assumptions are made for penetration as a function of subscription rates. Main results of the study are: the installation of a TV broadcasting satellite improves the economics of CTV-networks in both models; the overall coverage achievable by the uniform price model is significantly higher than that achievable by the cost price model.

Becker, D.↗

DSN 70-meter antenna X- and S-band calibration. Part 2: System noise temperature measurements and telecommunications link evaluation

The X- and S-band system operating noise temperatures of the Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-m antennas are presented. Models of atmosphere and ground noise temperature contributions, as they affect the antenna calibrations, are given for future use in telecommunications link modeling. The measured 70-m antenna network gain/system noise temperature (G/T) performance is presented. Compared with the earlier 64-m antenna network, G/T improvements of from 1.8 dB to 2.5 dB, depending on elevation angle, were achieved. G/T comparisons are made with the DSN/Flight Project Design Handbook and the Voyager telecommunications design control table. Actual Voyager telecommunications link performance is compared with predictions made by TPAP (the Voyager telecommunications prediction and analysis program) and with measured performance of the individual 70-m antennas. A modification in the use of antenna gain, system noise temperature, and atmospheric attenuation in existing telecommunications design control tables is suggested.

Slobin, S. D.↗

Resource Tracking Model Updates and Trade Studies

The Resource Tracking Model has been updated to capture system manager and project manager inputs. Both the Trick/General Use Nodal Network Solver Resource Tracking Model (RTM) simulator and the RTM mass balance spreadsheet have been revised to address inputs from system managers and to refine the way mass balance is illustrated. The revisions to the RTM included the addition of a Plasma Pyrolysis Assembly (PPA) to recover hydrogen from Sabatier Reactor methane, which was vented in the prior version of the RTM. The effect of the PPA on the overall balance of resources in an exploration vehicle is illustrated in the increased recycle of vehicle oxygen. Case studies have been run to show the relative effect of performance changes on vehicle resources.

Chambliss, Joe↗

Regulation, Competition and Network Evolution in Aviation

Our focus is the evolution of business strategies and network structure decisions in the commercial passenger aviation industry. The paper reviews the growth of hub-and-spoke networks as the dominant business model following deregulation in the latter part of the 20 century, followed by the emergence of value-based airlines as a global phenomenon at the end of the century. The paper highlights the link between airline business strategies and network structures, and examines the resulting competition between divergent network structure business models. In this context we discuss issues of market structure stability and the role played by competition policy.

Gillen, David↗

On Similarity Transformation and Geodetic Network Distortions Based on Doppler Satellite Observations

Models used in geodesy to transform two sets of coordinates are studied and distortions in geodetic networks are investigated. Commonly used transformation models are first reviewed and most of them are interpreted. Differences between various models are discussed. Pitfalls in partial solutions are then considered. It is shown that only as many chords and/or directional elements can be used in the computation as are needed to completely determine the size or shape of the polyhedron implied in the set of Cartesian coordinates. Each additional element causes the normal matrix to be singular provided that all correlations between the chords are used. A number of tables and maps indicating distortions in the NAD 27, Precise Traverse M-R '72, AUS, and SAD 69 geodetic datums are also included. The residuals of the coordinates are scanned for systematic patterns after transforming each geodetic system to the NWL9D Doppler system. Also, an attempt is made to show scale distortions in the NAD 27.

Leick, Alfred↗