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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Optimization of an optically implemented on-board FDMA demultiplexer

Performance of a 30 GHz frequency division multiple access (FDMA) uplink to a processing satellite is modelled for the case where the onboard demultiplexer is implemented optically. Included in the performance model are the effects of adjacent channel interference, intersymbol interference, and spurious signals associated with the optical implementation. Demultiplexer parameters are optimized to provide the minimum bit error probability at a given bandwidth efficiency when filtered QPSK modulation is employed.

Fargnoli, J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Application of high precision two-way S-band ranging to the navigation of the Galileo Earth encounters

The application of high-accuracy S/S-band (2.1 GHz uplink/2.3 GHz downlink) ranging to orbit determination with relatively short data arcs is investigated for the approach phase of each of the Galileo spacecraft's two Earth encounters (8 December 1990 and 8 December 1992). Analysis of S-band ranging data from Galileo indicated that under favorable signal levels, meter-level precision was attainable. It is shown that ranginging data of sufficient accuracy, when acquired from multiple stations, can sense the geocentric angular position of a distant spacecraft. Explicit modeling of ranging bias parameters for each station pass is used to largely remove systematic ground system calibration errors and transmission media effects from the Galileo range measurements, which would otherwise corrupt the angle finding capabilities of the data. The accuracy achieved using the precision range filtering strategy proved markedly better when compared to post-flyby reconstructions than did solutions utilizing a traditional Doppler/range filter strategy. In addition, the navigation accuracy achieved with precision ranging was comparable to that obtained using delta-Differenced One-Way Range, an interferometric measurement of spacecraft angular position relative to a natural radio source, which was also used operationally.

Pollmeier, Vincent M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clear-sky detection for PV degradation analysis using multiple regression

A method is presented to detect clear-sky periods for plane-of-array irradiance time-averaged data that is based on the algorithm originally described by Reno and Hansen. Here we show this new method improves the state-of-the-art by providing accurate detection at longer data averaging intervals. Moreover, our new method detects clear periods in plane-of-array data, which is novel. The new method is developed by applying a Design of Experiment approach to optimize the parameters used in the Reno method, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to understand the robustness of the found parameters. Clear-sky detection accuracy is compared among four methods: the Reno method, the default clear-sky filter in RdTools, the Ellis method, and the method outlined in this work, using a hand-labeled two-year data set of 1-min plane-of-array irradiance for a fixed tilt system. The RdTools clear-sky filter is marred by excessive false positives. The other methods all perform well at 1-min data intervals; the method developed here provides more accurate detection at longer data averaging intervals. We show that the parameters are directly linked to the data frequency in the hope that these input variables may not have to be optimized for every data frequency and location. However, only a single fixed system in one location was carefully examined. Finally, we illustrate how accurate determination of clear-sky conditions helps to eliminate data noise and bias in the assessment of long-term performance of PV plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Future of Single- to Multi-band Detector Technologies: Review

Using classical optical components such as filters, prisms and gratings to separate the desired wavelengths before they reach the detectors results in complex optical systems composed of heavy components. A simpler system will result by utilizing a single optical system and a detector that responds separately to each wavelength band. Therefore, a continuous endeavors to develop the capability to reliably fabricate detector arrays that respond to multiple wavelength regions. In this article, we will review the state-of-the-art single and multicolor detector technologies over a wide spectral-range, for use in space-based and airborne remote sensing applications. Discussions will be focused on current and the most recently developed focal plane arrays (FPA) in addition to emphasizing future development in UV-to-Far infrared multicolor FPA detectors for next generation space-based instruments to measure water vapor and greenhouse gases. This novel detector component will make instruments designed for these critical measurements more efficient while reducing complexity and associated electronics and weight. Finally, we will discuss the ongoing multicolor detector technology efforts at NASA Langley Research Center, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, and others.

Abedin, M. Nurul↗
NASA NTRS1979

Multiple object tracking with non-unique data-to-object association via generalized hypothesis testing

A generalized hypothesis testing approach is applied to the problem of tracking several objects where several different associations of data with objects are possible. Such problems occur, for instance, when attempting to distinctly track several aircraft maneuvering near each other or when tracking ships at sea. Conceptually, the problem is solved by first, associating data with objects in a statistically reasonable fashion and then, tracking with a bank of Kalman filters. The objects are assumed to have motion characterized by a fixed but unknown deterministic portion plus a random process portion modeled by a shaping filter. For example, the object might be assumed to have a mean straight line path about which it maneuvers in a random manner. Several hypothesized associations of data with objects are possible because of ambiguity as to which object the data comes from, false alarm/detection errors, and possible uncertainty in the number of objects being tracked. The statistical likelihood function is computed for each possible hypothesized association of data with objects. Then the generalized likelihood is computed by maximizing the likelihood over parameters that define the deterministic motion of the object.

Porter, D. W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

An algorithmic approach to predicting mechanical draft cooling tower fan speeds from infrasound signals

Mechanical draft cooling towers (MDCTs) serve a critical heat management role in a variety of industries. For nuclear reactors in particular, the consistent, predictable operation of MDCTs is required to avoid damage to infrastructure and reduce the potential for catastrophic failure. Accurate, reliable measurement of MDCT fan speed is therefore an important maintenance and safety requirement. To that end, we have developed an algorithm for automatically predicting the rotational speeds of multiple, simultaneously operating fan rotors using contactless, infrasound measurements. The algorithm is based on identifying the blade passing frequencies (BPFs), their harmonics, as well as the motor frequencies (MFs) for each fan in operation. Using the algorithm, these frequencies can be automatically identified in the acoustic waveform’s short-time Fourier transform spectrogram. Attribution is aided by a set of filters that rely on the unique spectral and temporal characteristics of fan operation, as well as the intrinsic frequency ratios of the BPF harmonics and the BPF/MF signals. The algorithm was tested against infrasound data acquired from infrasound sensors deployed at two research reactors: the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). After manually identifying the MDCT gearbox ratio, the algorithm was able to quickly yield fan speeds at both reactors in good agreement with ground truth. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the ease by which MDCT fans may be monitored in order to optimize operational conditions and avoid infrastructure damage.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

IsoMatchMS : Open-Source Software for Automated Annotation and Visualization of High Resolution MALDI-MS Spectra

Due to its speed, accuracy, and adaptability to various sample types, matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS) has become a popular method to identify molecular isotope profiles from biological samples. Often MALDI-MS data do not include tandem MS fragmentation data, and thus the identification of compounds in samples requires external databases so that the accurate mass of detected signals can be matched to known molecular compounds. Most relevant MALDI-MS software tools developed to confirm compound identifications are focused on small molecules (e.g., metabolites, lipids) and cannot be easily adapted to protein data due to their more complex isotopic distributions. Here, we present an R package called IsoMatchMS for the automated annotation of MALDI-MS data for multiple datatypes: intact proteins, peptides, and glycans. This tool accepts already derived molecular formulas or, for proteomics applications, can derive molecular formulas from a list of input peptides or proteins including proteins with post-translational modifications. In conclusion, visualization of all matched isotopic profiles is provided in a highly accessible HTML format called a trelliscope display, which allows users to filter and sort by several parameters such as match scores and the number of peaks matched. IsoMatchMS simplifies the annotation and visualization of MALDI-MS data for downstream analyses.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accuracy-Based Annotation Quality Score (ABAQS) v1.0

Assessing genome annotation quality is crucial for downstream analyses, but current methods are inadequate for eukaryotes. We present Accuracy-Based Annotation Quality Score (ABAQS), a novel, minimal-data-driven method that comprehensively assesses annotation quality. ABAQS evaluates multiple factors, including genome completeness, gene model validity, and protein profile accuracy, outperforming other metrics like BUSCO and PSAURON. We applied ABAQS to over 2500 eukaryotic genomes and showed its robustness and effectiveness in evaluating genome annotation quality, making it a valuable tool for researchers working with genomic data. ABAQS reveals significant variation in annotation quality and highlights the importance of filtering in improving annotation quality and accuracy.

Haridas, Sajeet [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗
NASA NTRS1987

Onboard multichannel demultiplexer/demodulator

An investigation performed for NASA LeRC by COMSAT Labs, of a digitally implemented on-board demultiplexer/demodulator able to process a mix of uplink carriers of differing bandwidths and center frequencies and programmable in orbit to accommodate variations in traffic flow is reported. The processor accepts high speed samples of the signal carried in a wideband satellite transponder channel, processes these as a composite to determine the signal spectrum, filters the result into individual channels that carry modulated carriers and demodulate these to recover their digital baseband content. The processor is implemented by using forward and inverse pipeline Fast Fourier Transformation techniques. The recovered carriers are then demodulated using a single digitally implemented demodulator that processes all of the modulated carriers. The effort has determined the feasibility of the concept with multiple TDMA carriers, identified critical path technologies, and assessed the potential of developing these technologies to a level capable of supporting a practical, cost effective on-board implementation. The result is a flexible, high speed, digitally implemented Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) bulk demultiplexer/demodulator.

Campanella, S. Joseph↗
NASA NTRS1990

H2, fixed architecture, control design for large scale systems

The H2, fixed architecture, control problem is a classic linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) problem whose solution is constrained to be a linear time invariant compensator with a decentralized processing structure. The compensator can be made of p independent subcontrollers, each of which has a fixed order and connects selected sensors to selected actuators. The H2, fixed architecture, control problem allows the design of simplified feedback systems needed to control large scale systems. Its solution becomes more complicated, however, as more constraints are introduced. This work derives the necessary conditions for optimality for the problem and studies their properties. It is found that the filter and control problems couple when the architecture constraints are introduced, and that the different subcontrollers must be coordinated in order to achieve global system performance. The problem requires the simultaneous solution of highly coupled matrix equations. The use of homotopy is investigated as a numerical tool, and its convergence properties studied. It is found that the general constrained problem may have multiple stabilizing solutions, and that these solutions may be local minima or saddle points for the quadratic cost. The nature of the solution is not invariant when the parameters of the system are changed. Bifurcations occur, and a solution may continuously transform into a nonstabilizing compensator. Using a modified homotopy procedure, fixed architecture compensators are derived for models of large flexible structures to help understand the properties of the constrained solutions and compare them to the corresponding unconstrained ones.

Mercadal, Mathieu↗
NASA NTRS2011

Towards Simulating a Realistic Planetary Seismic Wavefield: The Contribution of the Megaregolith and Low-Velocity Waveguides

Lunar seismograms are distinctly different from their terrestrial counterparts. The Apollo lunar seismometers recorded moonquakes without distinct P- or S-wave arrivals; instead waves arrive as a diffuse coda that decays over several hours making the identification of body waves difficult. The unusual character of the lunar seismic wavefield is generally tied to properties of the megaregolith: it consists of highly fractured and broken crustal rock, the result of extensive bombardment of the Moon. The megaregolith extends several kilometers into the lunar crust, possibly into the mantle in some regions, and is covered by a thin coating of fine-scale dust. These materials possess very low seismic velocities that strongly scatter the seismic wavefield at high frequencies. Directly modeling the effects of the megaregolith to simulate an accurate lunar seismic wavefield is a challenging computational problem, owing to the inherent 3-D nature of the problem and the high frequencies (greater than 1 Hz) required. Here we focus on modeling the long duration code, studying the effects of the low velocities found in the megaregolith. We produce synthetic seismograms using 1-D slowness integration methodologies, GEMINI and reflectivity, and a 3-D Cartesian finite difference code, Wave Propagation Program, to study the effect of thin layers of low velocity on the surface of a planet. These codes allow us generate seismograms with dominant frequencies of approximately 1 Hz. For background lunar seismic structure we explore several models, including the recent model of Weber et al., Science, 2011. We also investigate variations in megaregolithic thickness, velocity, attenuation, and seismogram frequency content. Our results are compared to the Apollo seismic dataset, using both a cross correlation technique and integrated envelope approach to investigate coda decay. We find our new high frequency results strongly support the hypothesis that the long duration of the lunar seismic codes is generated by the presence of the low velocity megaregolith, and that the diffuse arrivals are a combination of scattered energy and multiple reverberations within this layer. The 3-D modeling indicates the extreme surface topography of the Moon adds only a small contribution to scattering effects, though local geology may play a larger role. We also study the effects of the megaregolith on core reflected and converted phases and other body waves. Our analysis indicates detection of core interacting arrivals with a polarization filter technique is robust and lends the possibility of detecting other body waves from the Moon.

Schmerr, Nicholas C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fungal-Bacterial Cooccurrence Patterns Differ between Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi and Nonmycorrhizal Fungi across Soil Niches

Soil bacteria and fungi are known to form niche-specific communities that differ between actively growing and decaying roots. Yet almost nothing is known about the cross-kingdom interactions that frame these communities and the environmental filtering that defines these potentially friendly or competing neighbors. We explored the temporal and spatial patterns of soil fungal (mycorrhizal and nonmycorrhizal) and bacterial cooccurrence near roots of wild oat grass, Avena fatua, growing in its naturalized soil in a greenhouse experiment. Amplicon sequences of the fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and bacterial 16S rRNA genes from rhizosphere and bulk soils collected at multiple plant growth stages were used to construct covariation-based networks as a step toward identifying fungal-bacterial associations. Corresponding stable-isotope-enabled metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) of bacteria identified in cooccurrence networks were used to inform potential mechanisms underlying the observed links. Bacterial-fungal networks were significantly different in rhizosphere versus bulk soils and between arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and nonmycorrhizal fungi. Over 12 weeks of plant growth, nonmycorrhizal fungi formed increasingly complex networks with bacteria in rhizosphere soils, while AMF more frequently formed networks with bacteria in bulk soils. Analysis of network-associated bacterial MAGs suggests that some of the fungal-bacterial links that we identified are potential indicators of bacterial breakdown and consumption of fungal biomass, while others intimate shared ecological niches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

ORNL_AISD_NiPt_108atoms

This dataset describes the nickel-platinum (NiPt) solid solution binary alloy, where the two constituent elements nickel (Ni) and platinum (Pt) are randomly placed on the face centered cubic (FCC) crystal structure, with the lattice constant of 3.840 angstroms. The dataset comprises data for crystal structures with 108 atoms with 1,900 configurations. The data set was generated for concentrations ranging from 0at% of Pt to 100at% of Pt in the NiPt binary system, with increasing the concentration of Pt in the system every 5at%. For each one of the chemical compositions, 100 random configurations were generated, each with a different random seed. Each of the output files contains the mass, type, atomic coordinates, energy per atom, and forces in x, y, and z directions respectively. For each atomic configuration, the output was collected every 150 steps during the minimization stage and every 1000 steps during the replica exchange stage. Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS) [1], which is a molecular dynamics code, was used to generate data for NiPt alloy. The simulation used the interatomic potential for NiPt binary system 'MEAM_LAMMPS_KimSeolJi_2017_PtNi__MO_020840179467_001' [3] from the OpenKIM library (Open Knowledgebase of Interatomic Models) [2]. This potential was developed based on the second nearest-neighbor modified embedded-atom method (2NN MEAM). The simulation process begins with the generation of the random NiPt structure and follows with the short minimization and replica exchange simulation. The minimization procedure adjusts atomic coordinates and performs energy minimization, which typically leads to a local potential energy minimum. The method used for the minimization was the conjugate gradient algorithm. A short replica exchange (parallel tempering) simulation involves four replicas (ensembles) of a system and follows the minimization stage. Multiple snapshots of the configuration were collected during the minimization and replica exchange stages. NiPt alloy is interesting due to its magnetic and charge transfer properties [4]. The data is provided in a compressed zipped folders atoms108.zip. The zipped folder contains the data structured in the following way: - Ni_ground_state.cfg --> atomic configuration for the pure nickel - Pt_ground_state.cfg --> atomic configuration for the pure platinum - Pt#_filtered --> folders containing atomic configurations for #at% concentration of platinum. The folder contains 100 atomic configurations, each saved in a subfolder - Each subfolder named config* is associated with a specific atomic configuration. Each of these subfolders contains files with .cfg format, corresponding to outputs for each atomic configuration The total number of atomic configurations contained in atoms108.zip is 66,132. This dataset is an extension to the dataset ORNL_AISD_NiPt [5] that has been previously released with crystal structures of 256 atoms, 864 atoms, and 2,048 atoms, with the same methodology for data collection. References [1] https://www.lammps.org/ [2] https://openkim.org/ [3] https://openkim.org/id/MEAM_LAMMPS_KimSeolJi_2017_PtNi__MO_020840179467_001 [4] El-Gendy, Ahmed A. and Hampel, Silke and Büchner, Bernd and Klingeler, Rüdiger, Tuneable magnetic properties of carbon-shielded NiPt-nanoalloys, RSC Adv., volume 6, issue 57, pages 52427-52433, 2016, The Royal Society of Chemistry, doi:10.1039/C6RA05910D [5] M. Karabin, M. Lupo Pasini, and M. Eisenbach. ORNL_AISD_NiPt. United States: N. p., 2023. Web. doi:10.13139/OLCF/1958172.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical Modeling to Enhance Spectrophotometry Measurements—Overcoming Dynamic Range Limitations for Remote Monitoring of Neptunium

A robust hierarchical model has been demonstrated for monitoring a wide range of neptunium concentrations (0.75–890 mM) and varying temperatures (10–80 °C) using chemometrics and feature selection. The visible–near infrared electronic absorption spectrum (400–1700 nm) of monocharged neptunyl dioxocation (Np(V) = NpO2+) includes many bands, which have molar absorption coefficients that differ by nearly 2 orders of magnitude. The shape, position, and intensity of these bands differ with chemical interactions and changing temperature. These challenges make traditional quantification by univariate methods unfeasible. Measuring Np(V) concentration over several orders of magnitude would typically necessitate cells with varying path length, optical switches, and/or multiple spectrophotometers. Alternatively, the differences in the molar extinction coefficients for multiple absorption bands can be used to quantify Np(V) concentration over 3 orders of magnitude with a single optical path length (1 mm) and a hierarchical multivariate model. In this work, principal component analysis was used to distinguish the concentration regime of the sample, directing it to the relevant partial least squares regression submodels. Each submodel was optimized with unique feature selection filters that were selected by a genetic algorithm to enhance predictions. Through this approach, the percent root mean square error of prediction values were ≤1.05% for Np(V) concentrations and ≤4% for temperatures. This approach may be applied to other nuclear fuel cycle and environmental applications requiring real-time spectroscopic measurements over a wide range of conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2002

Evaluation of a Pair-Wise Conflict Detection and Resolution Algorithm in a Multiple Aircraft Scenario

The KB3D algorithm is a pairwise conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) algorithm. It detects and generates trajectory vectoring for an aircraft which has been predicted to be in an airspace minima violation within a given look-ahead time. It has been proven, using mechanized theorem proving techniques, that for a pair of aircraft, KB3D produces at least one vectoring solution and that all solutions produced are correct. Although solutions produced by the algorithm are mathematically correct, they might not be physically executable by an aircraft or might not solve multiple aircraft conflicts. This paper describes a simple solution selection method which assesses all solutions generated by KB3D and determines the solution to be executed. The solution selection method and KB3D are evaluated using a simulation in which N aircraft fly in a free-flight environment and each aircraft in the simulation uses KB3D to maintain separation. Specifically, the solution selection method filters KB3D solutions which are procedurally undesirable or physically not executable and uses a predetermined criteria for selection.

Carreno, Victor A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

International Space Station Increment-4/5 Microgravity Environment Summary Report

This summary report presents the results of some of the processed acceleration data measured aboard the International Space Station during the period of December 2001 to December 2002. Unlike the past two ISS Increment reports, which were increment specific, this summary report covers two increments: Increments 4 and 5, hereafter referred to as Increment-4/5. Two accelerometer systems were used to measure the acceleration levels for the activities that took place during Increment-4/5. Due to time constraint and lack of precise timeline information regarding some payload operations and station activities, not a11 of the activities were analyzed for this report. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration sponsors the Microgravity Acceleration Measurement System and the Space Acceleration Microgravity System to support microgravity science experiments which require microgravity acceleration measurements. On April 19, 2001, both the Microgravity Acceleration Measurement System and the Space Acceleration Measurement System units were launched on STS-100 from the Kennedy Space Center for installation on the International Space Station. The Microgravity Acceleration Measurement System supports science experiments requiring quasi-steady acceleration measurements, while the Space Acceleration Measurement System unit supports experiments requiring vibratory acceleration measurement. The International Space Station Increment-4/5 reduced gravity environment analysis presented in this report uses acceleration data collected by both sets of accelerometer systems: The Microgravity Acceleration Measurement System, which consists of two sensors: the low-frequency Orbital Acceleration Research Experiment Sensor Subsystem and the higher frequency High Resolution Accelerometer Package. The low frequency sensor measures up to 1 Hz, but is routinely trimmean filtered to yield much lower frequency acceleration data up to 0.01 Hz. This filtered data can be mapped to arbitrary locations for characterizing the quasi-steady environment for payloads and the vehicle. The high frequency sensor is used to characterize the vibratory environment up to 100 Hz at a single measurement location. The Space Acceleration Measurement System, which deploys high frequency sensors, measures vibratory acceleration data in the range of 0.01 to 400 Hz at multiple measurement locations. This summary report presents analysis of some selected quasi-steady and vibratory activities measured by these accelerometers during Increment- 4/5 from December 2001 to December 2002.

Jules, Kenol↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an open-source regional data assimilation system in PEcAn v. 1.7.2: application to carbon cycle reanalysis across the contiguous US using SIPNET

Abstract. The ability to monitor, understand, and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle requires the capacity to robustly and coherently synthesize multiple streams of information that each provide partial information about different pools and fluxes. In this study, we introduce a new terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system, built on the PEcAn model–data eco-informatics system, and its application for the development of a proof-of-concept carbon “reanalysis” product that harmonizes carbon pools (leaf, wood, soil) and fluxes (GPP, Ra, Rh, NEE) across the contiguous United States from 1986–2019. We first calibrated this system against plant trait and flux tower net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using a novel emulated hierarchical Bayesian approach. Next, we extended the Tobit–Wishart ensemble filter (TWEnF) state data assimilation (SDA) framework, a generalization of the common ensemble Kalman filter which accounts for censored data and provides a fully Bayesian estimate of model process error, to a regional-scale system with a calibrated localization. Combined with additional workflows for propagating parameter, initial condition, and driver uncertainty, this represents the most complete and robust uncertainty accounting available for terrestrial carbon models. Our initial reanalysis was run on an irregular grid of ∼ 500 points selected using a stratified sampling method to efficiently capture environmental heterogeneity. Remotely sensed observations of aboveground biomass (Landsat LandTrendr) and leaf area index (LAI) (MODIS MOD15) were sequentially assimilated into the SIPNET model. Reanalysis soil carbon, which was indirectly constrained based on modeled covariances, showed general agreement with SoilGrids, an independent soil carbon data product. Reanalysis NEE, which was constrained based on posterior ensemble weights, also showed good agreement with eddy flux tower NEE and reduced root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the calibrated forecast. Ultimately, PEcAn's new open-source regional data assimilation framework provides a scalable workflow for harmonizing multiple data constraints and providing a uniform synthetic platform for carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) as well as accelerating terrestrial carbon cycle research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Changepoint Detection for Non‐Gaussian Time Series

ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.

Lund, Robert [Department of Statistics University ↗