SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Monte Carlo Modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Score-Based Physics-Informed Neural Networks for High-Dimensional Fokker–Planck Equations

The Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is a foundational partial differential equation (PDE) in stochastic processes involving Brownian motions. However, the curse of dimensionality (CoD) poses a formidable challenge when dealing with high-dimensional FP equations. Although Monte Carlo simulation and (vanilla) Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have shown the potential to tackle CoD, both methods exhibit significant numerical errors in high dimensions when dealing with the probability density function (PDF) associated with Brownian motion. The point-wise PDF values tend to decrease exponentially as dimensionality increases, surpassing the precision of numerical simulations and resulting in substantial errors. In addition, due to its massive sampling, Monte Carlo fails to offer fast sampling. Modeling the logarithm likelihood (LL) via vanilla PINNs transforms the FP equation into a notoriously difficult Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, which is impractical for PINN learning, whose error grows rapidly with dimension. To this end, we propose a novel approach utilizing a score-based solver to fit the score function in stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The score function, defined as the gradient of the LL, plays a fundamental role in inferring LL and PDF and enables fast SDE sampling, offering an effective means to overcome the CoD. Three fitting methods, Score Matching (SM), Sliced Score Matching (SSM), and Score-PINN, are introduced, each contributing unique advantages in computational complexity, accuracy, and generality. The proposed score-based SDE solver operates in two stages: first, employing score matching or Score-PINN to acquire the score function; and second, solving the LL via an ordinary differential equation (ODE) using the obtained score function. Comparative evaluations across these methods showcase varying trade-offs. The proposed methodology is evaluated across diverse SDEs, including anisotropic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, geometric Brownian motion, and Brownian motion with varying eigenspace. We also test various distributions, including Gaussian, Log-normal, Laplace, and Cauchy distributions. The numerical results demonstrate the score-based SDE solver’s stability, speed, and performance across different experimental settings, solidifying its potential as a solution to CoD for high-dimensional FP equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of single-diffractive dijet production in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 8 TeV with the CMS and TOTEM experiments

Measurements are presented of the single-diffractive dijet cross section and the diffractive cross section as a function of the proton fractional momentum loss $\xi $ and the four-momentum transfer squared t. Both processes ${\text{ p }{}{}} {\text{ p }{}{}} \rightarrow {\text{ p }{}{}} {\text{ X }} $ and ${\text{ p }{}{}} {\text{ p }{}{}} \rightarrow {\text{ X }} {\text{ p }{}{}} $, i.e. with the proton scattering to either side of the interaction point, are measured, where ${\text{ X }} $ includes at least two jets; the results of the two processes are averaged. The analyses are based on data collected simultaneously with the CMS and TOTEM detectors at the LHC in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 8\,\text {Te}\text {V} $ during a dedicated run with $\beta ^{*} = 90\,\text {m} $ at low instantaneous luminosity and correspond to an integrated luminosity of $37.5{\,\text {nb}^{-1}} $. The single-diffractive dijet cross section $\sigma ^{{\text{ p }{}{}} {\text{ X }}}_{\mathrm {jj}}$, in the kinematic region $\xi < 0.1$, $0.03< |t | < 1\,\text {Ge}\text {V} ^2$, with at least two jets with transverse momentum $p_{\mathrm {T}} > 40\,\text {Ge}\text {V} $, and pseudorapidity $|\eta | < 4.4$, is $21.7 \pm 0.9\,\text {(stat)} \,^{+3.0}_{-3.3}\,\text {(syst)} \pm 0.9\,\text {(lumi)} \,\text {nb} $. The ratio of the single-diffractive to inclusive dijet yields, normalised per unit of $\xi $, is presented as a function of x, the longitudinal momentum fraction of the proton carried by the struck parton. The ratio in the kinematic region defined above, for x values in the range $-2.9 \le \log _{10} x \le -1.6$, is $R = (\sigma ^{{\text{ p }{}{}} {\text{ X }}}_{\mathrm {jj}}/\Delta \xi )/\sigma _{\mathrm {jj}} = 0.025 \pm 0.001\,\text {(stat)} \pm 0.003\,\text {(syst)} $, where $\sigma ^{{\text{ p }{}{}} {\text{ X }}}_{\mathrm {jj}}$ and $\sigma _{\mathrm {jj}}$ are the single-diffractive and inclusive dijet cross sections, respectively. The results are compared with predictions from models of diffractive and nondiffractive interactions. Monte Carlo predictions based on the HERA diffractive parton distribution functions agree well with the data when corrected for the effect of soft rescattering between the spectator partons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Critical Stack Pressure to Alter Void Generation at Li/Solid-Electrolyte Interfaces during Stripping

The lithium stripping process generates vacancies, which may accumulate as voids and lead to uneven current distribution and dendrite growth in the following plating cycles. A stack pressure is typically required during stripping, but how to optimize the stack pressure is not clear. In this work, extremely lithiophilic Li/Li 2 O and lithiophobic Li/LiF interfaces were used to reveal the combining effect of interface interaction and stack pressure induced lithium creep on the stripping critical current density (CCD). A multiscale simulation scheme with Density Functional Theory (DFT), kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations, and an analytical model was developed. The analytical model predicted lithiophobic interfaces require a higher stack pressure than lithiophilic interfaces to reach the same CCD. The KMC simulations also showed higher stack pressure is needed at lithiophobic interfaces to accelerate Li vacancy diffusion into the bulk and maintain a flat surface. This stack pressure needs to be high enough to alter the Li forward-and-backward hopping barriers at the interface. This multiscale simulation scheme illustrates the importance to include the chemical-mechanical effects during Li stripping morphology evolution. It can be used to design ideal interlayer coating materials to maintain a flat Li surface during cycling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calculation of neutron flux spectra of the VVER-1000 mock-up shielding benchmark with Monte Carlo code MCS utilizing mesh-based weight window

The measurements of neutron spectra compiled inside the NEA-1517/82 package from the Shielding Integral Benchmark Archive and Database (SINBAD) are chosen as benchmark cases to validate the variance reduction technique based on weight window in Monte Carlo Code MCS. A full 3D model for fixed source mode calculation with hexagonal lattice source definition is developed to simulate total of 6 points of measurements at the vicinity of the reactor and the reactor pressure vessel region. A code/code comparison against MCNP6 code is first conducted as verification element for the mesh-based weight window capability in MCS. Finally, the validation results are presented against measurements. The verification against MCNP6 code gives good agreement in addition of the insight to the importance of user understanding to determine proper reference point and reference lower weight bound for scaling which is not required in MCS code due to its capability of automatic scaling. The comparison of neutron spectra between MCS and measurements shows good agreement within 3 standard deviations for all of six detector positions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Joule heating in bad and slow metals

Heat supplied to a metal is absorbed by the electrons and then transferred to the lattice. In conventional metals energy is released to the lattice by phonons emitted from the Lindhard continuum. However in a 'bad' metal, with short mean free path, the low energy Lindhard continuum is destroyed. To describe energy transfer to the lattice in these cases we obtain a general Kubo formula for the energy relaxation rate in terms of the electronic density spectral weight \text{lm} \, G^R_{nn}(\omega_{k},k) lm G n n R ( ω k , k ) evaluated on the phonon dispersion \omega_k ω k . We apply our Kubo formula to the high temperature Hubbard model, using recent data from quantum Monte Carlo and experiments in ultracold atoms to characterize \text{lm} \, G^R_{nn}(\omega_{k},k) lm G n n R ( ω k , k ) . We furthermore use recent data from electron energy-loss spectroscopy to estimate the energy relaxation rate of the cuprate strange metal to a high energy optical phonon. As a second, distinct, application of our formalism we consider 'slow' metals. These are defined to have Fermi velocity less than the sound velocity, so that particle-hole pairs are kinematically unable to emit phonons. We obtain an expression for the energy relaxation rate of a slow metal in terms of the optical conductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Increased Monte Carlo Parameters on Sensitivity Calculations with SCALE [Slides]

For both models and tests, NPG and NSK parameters have only small effects on calculated sensitivity coefficients. Outside of NPG=100, only differences in CFP affected sensitivity coefficient values. Fission reactions ( 235 U) require more NPG values than scattering ( 238 U) reactions – more particles are needed to locate fission sources in the model more accurately. This work confirms the previous results with the IFP method where the CFP parameter has the greatest impact on calculated sensitivity coefficients. While immediate work focuses on fast systems, other model specifications may require a different set of MC parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the Impact of Realistic Sensor Physics and the Integration of Ex-Core Sensors on Reactor Power Synthesis

In the work documented in this report, a weighting function–based core power synthesis method was applied to multiple Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) reactor models, which are informed based on simulated self-powered neutron detector (SPND) responses. The weighting function method used has been coined the point-based iterative (PBI) method. The goal of this application is to assess the impact of considering realistic sensor physics in the generation of the simulated SPND outputs as well as to consider how the synthesis is impacted based on the inclusion of ex-core detectors in the model. The NuScale small modular reactor (SMR) and Westinghouse AP1000 pressurized water reactor (PWR) are the models that served as the testbeds for the assessment of realistic sensor physics; this was achieved by using Geant4 SPND models in comparison with analytical models, such that the effect of electron transport in realistic SPND geometries in the Geant4 model can be understood in terms of synthesis error and convergence time. The comparison was considered for fuel burnup–induced perturbations, for a range of sensor string densities and synthesized power distribution axial fidelities. The Texas A&M Testing, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor (TAMU TRIGA) reactor MCNP model was used to assess the impact of ex-core sensors; this was done by performing synthesis with and without the ex-core detectors and by quantifying the synthesis error and number of iterations associated with Gaussian-type perturbations in many locations in the core. The TAMU TRIGA model was particularly pertinent for this study because of the interest in future experimental tests with SPNDs in this reactor, as well as the ease of modifying the MCNP model to include ex-core detectors with heterogeneously described response functions. Results from the comparison between the Geant4 and analytical SPND models indicate that similar average and maximum synthesis errors were obtained for burnup-induced perturbations in both the NuScale SMR and the AP1000. This was true for a range of sensor string densities and axial fidelities. However, there were marked differences between both the Geant4 and analytically informed models in terms of the iterations required to converge on the synthesized power distribution. Namely, the Geant4-informed models tended to lead to fewer iterations, except for a few sensor–core configurations that had particularly numerous iterations. Results from the ex-core sensor assessment with the TAMU TRIGA model indicate that the inclusion of ex-core sensors drastically reduces the synthesis error of Gaussian-type perturbations close to the edge of the core, and it slightly reduces synthesis errors for perturbations closer to the center of the core. This was achieved with a minimal increase in computational cost—that is, the number of iterations required for convergence. The errors were identified to be in the same location as the perturbation in the core, indicating that the methodology remains robust for unperturbed regions of the core. A secondary result from this study with the TAMU TRIGA was yielded by analysis of the neutron flux levels in the in-core and ex-core sensor locations of the core; these flux levels indicate that SPNDs could be used as both in-core and ex-core sensors, so long as the emitter material is sensitive to thermal neutrons. The results from these studies provide a quantitative understanding of the importance of considering realistic sensor physics and including ex-core sensors to perform accurate and timely power distribution synthesis of a reactor core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Detailed Characterization of HR 8799's Debris Disk with ALMA in Band 7

The exoplanetary system of HR 8799 is one of the rare systems in which multiple planets have been directly imaged. Its architecture is strikingly similar to that of the solar system, with the four imaged giant planets surrounding a warm dust belt analogous to the Asteroid Belt, and themselves being surrounded by a cold dust belt analog to the Kuiper Belt. Previous observations of this cold belt with ALMA in Band 6 (1.3 mm) revealed its inner edge, but analyses of the data differ on its precise location. It was therefore unclear whether or not the outermost planet HR 8799 b was dynamically sculpting it. We present here new ALMA observations of this debris disk in Band 7 (340 GHz, 880 μm). These are the most detailed observations of this disk obtained so far, with a resolution of 1″ (40 au) and sensitivity of 9.8 μJy beam{sup −1}, which allowed us to recover the disk structure with high confidence. In order to constrain the disk morphology, we fit its emission using radiative transfer models combined with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. We find that this disk cannot be adequately represented by a single power law with sharp edges. It exhibits a smoothly rising inner edge and smoothly falling outer edge, with a peak in between, as expected from a disk that contains a high-eccentricity component, hence confirming previous findings. Whether this excited population and inner edge shape stem from the presence of an additional planet remains, however, an open question.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Cloud‐Base Ice Precipitation Properties Retrieved Using Bayesian Inference

Abstract Cloud‐climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long‐lived, and nearly continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This Arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at Arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud‐base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. Here I describe an inverse model for the estimation of cloud base ice precipitation properties over Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska, using the synthesis of ground‐based radar and lidar measurements. By leveraging a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm as the core of the inverse model, a wide range of particle size distributions are sampled, and different combinations of ice habit models are examined, both of which are typically fixed in other retrieval methods. Results show intriguing links between different cloud base thermodynamic and ice precipitation properties. Apparent ice number concentration enhancements at temperatures of −5 and −15°C suggest possible secondary ice production (SIP). The analysis alludes to an overestimation of SIP occurrence and intensity, especially in studies relying only on radar or lidar measurements. Finally, reflectivity‐dependent ice precipitation rate and ice water content parameterizations are presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hamming distance and the onset of quantum criticality

Simulating models for quantum correlated matter unveils the inherent limitations of deterministic classical computations. In particular, in the case of quantum Monte Carlo methods, this is manifested by the emergence of negative weight configurations in the sampling, that is, the sign problem (SP). There have been several recent calculations which exploit the SP to locate underlying critical behavior. Here, utilizing a metric that quantifies phase-space ergodicity in such sampling, the Hamming distance, we suggest a significant advance on these ideas to extract the location of quantum critical points in various fermionic models, in spite of the presence of a severe SP. Combined with other methods, exact diagonalization in our case, it elucidates both the nature of the different phases as well as their location, as we demonstrate explicitly for the honeycomb and triangular Hubbard models, in both their U(1) and SU(2) forms. Furthermore, our approach exemplifies a possible path allowing the exploration of the phase diagram of a variety of fermionic quantum models hitherto considered to be impractical via quantum Monte Carlo simulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

A multifidelity method for a nonlocal diffusion model

Nonlocal models feature a finite length scale, referred to as the horizon, such that points separated by a distance smaller than the horizon interact with each other. Such models have proven to be useful in a variety of settings. However, due to the reduced sparsity of discretizations, they are also generally computationally more expensive compared to their local differential equation counterparts. In this work, we introduce a multifidelity Monte Carlo method that combines the high-fidelity nonlocal model of interest with surrogate models that use coarser grids and/or smaller horizons and thus have lower fidelities and lower costs. Using the multifidelity method, the overall computational cost of uncertainty quantification is reduced without compromising accuracy. It is shown for a one-dimensional nonlocal diffusion example that speedups of up to two orders of magnitude can be achieved using the multifidelity method to estimate the expectation of an output of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Constraining neutrino oscillation and interaction parameters with the NOvA Near Detector and Far Detector data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

This thesis reports a constraint of the neutrino oscillation parameters $\Delta m^{2}_{32}$, $\sin^2 \theta_{23}$, and $\delta_{CP}$ using the NuMI Off-Axis $\nu$ Appearance (NOvA) experiment's Near Detector (ND) data and Far Detector (FD) fake data set simultaneously. This thesis also reports a constraint on NOvA's systematic uncertainty model solely with its Near Detector data. The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm is used to estimate Bayesian Credible Intervals for the oscillation and interaction parameters. The $1\sigma$ Credible Intervals for $\sin^2 \theta_{23}$ are $(0.44, 0.512)$ $\cup$ $(0.536, 0.56)$, for $\Delta m^{2}_{32}$ $(2.41 \times 10^{-3}$ eV$^2,\ 2.52 \times 10^{-3}$ eV$^2)$, and for $\delta_{CP}$ $(0.74\pi,\ 1.1\pi)$ $\cup$ $(1.38\pi,\ 1.58\pi)$. The statistical power of the ND data constrains NOvA's interaction parameters, while the FD fake data constrains the oscillation parameters. This is the first analysis within NOvA to constrain the ND and FD prediction sim ultaneously, and to investigate the neutrino interaction modeling in the context of constraining the oscillation parameters. To constrain the ND data requires a sophisticated understanding of the neutrino interaction modeling and its uncertainties. The interested reader is advised to focus on Chapters 4 and 6, which discuss the ND selection, uncertainties, and ND-only fits to data. The reader interested in oscillation parameter constraints will find this in Chapter 7.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reactor physics benchmark of Westinghouse PWR core design suite for high burnup/high enrichment fuel - Part 2: 2D and 3D core simulations

Westinghouse has performed a comprehensive set of code-to-code benchmark comparisons to corroborate application of its state-of-the-art NEXUS-based code suite to high burnup and high enrichment (HB/HE) fueled PWR core design and reload analysis. The benchmark consisted of a progression in complexity from modeling single 2D pin cells, through 2D lattices and finally to whole core 2D and then 3D scenarios. The accompanying paper (Part 1) presented the results for a variety of pin cell and lattices representative of high energy cores and established the ability of the MPACT code to accurately match the predictions of the Monte-Carlo code SERPENT2 such that the former may be used as a surrogate reference code in spatially complex whole core modeling applications where using Monte-Carlo methods is somewhat impractical. This paper focuses on comparisons at the whole core level using a representative high power density 3-loop Westinghouse NSSS core operating for 24 month cycles employing high enriched fuel with use of combined burnable absorbers to hold down excess reactivity. The evolution of the core reactivity and power distribution characteristics throughout the cycle are calculated using the Westinghouse NEXUS-based code suite and compared to the results using MPACT. The results of this whole core benchmark confirm the conclusions that the Westinghouse code suite accurately models HB/HE fuel designs, with very good prediction of core reactivity and power distribution throughout the cycle. The industry can be confident that the NEXUS code system can be deployed to support PWR reload safety and operational analyses for cores featuring HB/HE fuel and 24-month cycle operation. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the Pion Exclusive Electro-Production Cross-Section in the E12-19-006 Experiment in Hall-C at Jefferson Lab

One of the most effective methods for exploring the transition from hadronic degrees of freedom to quark-gluon degrees of freedom in Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) is through the investigation of \exclusive" pion and kaon electro-production reactions at various Q2 and ?t values. The E12-19-006 experiment is conducted within the confi?nes of experimental Hall C at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility, USA, for such studies. The primary aim of the experiment is to ?first enhance our comprehension of the pion electro-production cross-section and its form factor at Q2 = 0.38 and 0.42 GeV2. This is the fi?rst run period of the E12-19-006 experiment which ran in summer 2019. A more profound understanding of the pion electro-production reaction, 1H(e,e'?+)n, at low Q2 is deemed essential to employ this electro-production reaction (an indirect technique) for the high Q2 studies, thereby delving deeper into the realm of QCD. Consequently, this dissertation presents a thorough analysis of the experimental data acquired in the ?first run period of the E12-19-006 experiment. In pursuit of precision, a series of systematic studies (target boiling correction study, the elastic reaction cross-section measurements, study for determining vari- ous kinematics o?sets, etc.) are conducted to discern the accuracy of the analyzed data, a prerequisite for the use of Rosenbluth separation technique to separate the pion electro-production cross-section terms in t bins. The separated pion electro-production cross-section through the Rosenbluth separation technique is then used to extract the pion electromagnetic form factor. In this dissertation, the pion electro-production cross-section is carefully dissected into its four constituent components: longitudinal (?L), transverse (?T ), longitudinal-transverse (?LT ), and transverse-transverse (?TT ), using the full version of Rosenbluth separation technique for the Q2 = 0.38 GeV2. The technique is simultaneously fi?tted to the unseparated pion electro-production cross-sections at the three values of polarization of the virtual photon (?), i.e., ? = 0.286, 0.629 and 0.781. An iterative process is applied to re?ne the parameters of the model cross-sections until the yield ratio of experimental and Monte Carlo simulation converges. In this study, 21 iterations are conducted to re?ne the model cross-section parameters. The fi?nal pion electro-production cross-section terms are then determined for 7 t bins using the optimized parameters of the model cross-sections.

Kumar, Vijay↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Enhancements, Cross-Section Generation Updates, and Benchmarking with Shift

This technical report documents the modeling enhancements, cross-section generation updates, and bench marking with the Shift Monte Carlo code performed under the US Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program in FY 2024. The work performed included several modeling enhancements, such as integration of cross-section generation in Titan and the ability to produce microscopic multigroup cross sections with Shift. Benchmarking of the cross sections produced by Shift and the two-step workflow with Griffin was performed for three problems: the Advanced Breeder Test Reactor, a generic pebble bed reactor, and a TRISO heat pipe microreactor. Comparisons of results from these benchmark problems were done with Serpent, OpenMC, and Griffin. These enhancements provide a robust foundation for applying Shift for both reference and two-step neutronics analysis for advanced reactor simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

SERPENT 2 and TRIPOLI-4 neutronics benchmarking of the Jules Horowitz reactor

Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR) is a future center for nuclear material testing in Europe, currently under construction at CEA Cadarache in southern France. It has been modelled extensively with CEA's HORUS3D/N neutron calculation package, that includes a Monte-Carlo neutron transport code TRIPOLI-4. In order to support the future computational analyses on the reactor core physics, VTT's Monte Carlo neutronics code SERPENT 2 has been used to create an alternative model of the JHR, taking advantage of the pre-existing Constructive Solid Geometry (CSG) structures on which the TRIPOLI-4 model was built. This work describes a benchmark, in which two JHR core configurations were analyzed using both of these models. The first configuration is a fresh fuel core at the beginning of life, in which aluminum based dummy-devices are installed in the reactor test positions. The second configuration represents the end-of-cycle equilibrium core with a heterogeneous burnup distribution, in which CALIPSO devices containing cladding material samples are installed at the in-core experimental positions, while the reflector positions are occupied by DEN-REP devices containing UO{sub 2} fuel. Neutron flux spectra and heat deposition are the parameters of interest in this study, due to their high importance in creating the desired experimental irradiation environment. The impact of delayed gamma energy deposition will be studied in detail, since the two models account for it with different methods. This work aims to establish a SERPENT 2 model of JHR, understanding its differences and agreements with TRIPOLI-4, and discussing its potential future applications. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗