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At least 703 records · Page 39

A Three-Dimensional, Analytical Wind Turbine Wake Model: Flow Acceleration, Empirical Correlations, and Continuity

A new, three-dimensional, analytical, steady-state wake model is presented that includes local flow acceleration near the rotor, improving the wake description compared to existing models. Wake structures such as the momentum deficit and regions of accelerated flow are concisely described with compound and normal Gaussian functions. Large-eddy simulations (LES) are used as training data to develop the model using two in-line turbines under various inflow conditions parameterized by hub-height wind speed and turbulence intensity. Mass conservation is considered by fixing two components of the wake velocity model and optimizing the third to best satisfy continuity; after which, the model performs comparably if not better than existing work with regards to both relative error and mass consistency. The final model demonstrates a high degree of flexibility, making use of empirical correlations to scale across different inflow conditions. The inclusion of these effects is capable of revealing unused opportunities for enhanced power generation by aligning wake trajectories with these regions of accelerated flow.

modeling↗

Flexible and Modular Simultaneous Modeling of Flow and Reactive Transport in Rivers and Hyporheic Zones

Investigations of coupled multiphysics processes in rivers and hyporheic zones have extensively used numerical models. Most existing models use a sequential, one-way coupling between the surface and subsurface domains. Such one-way coupling potentially introduces error. To overcome this, a fully coupled model, hyporheicFoam, was developed using the open-source computational platform OpenFOAM. It captures the coupled flow and multicomponent reactive transport processes within both surface and subsurface domains and across their interface. The coupling between two domains is implemented by mapping conservative flux boundary conditions at the interface through an iterative algorithm. Reactive transport is enabled by specifying a reaction network. To start, we have implemented reaction kinetics following the double Monod-type model with inhibition. The model capability is illustrated through modeling of both conservative and reactive hyporheic flow and transport through dune bedforms. With the novel coupled model, it is now possible to quantify reactions wherein the reactants and products are constantly exchanging between domains and have feedbacks. hyporheicFoam can simulate large, three-dimensional cases owing to the computational flexibility and power offered by the code structure and parallel design of OpenFOAM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimating Atmospheric Parameters of DA White Dwarf Stars with Deep Learning

The determination of atmospheric parameters of white dwarf stars (WDs) is crucial for researches on them. Traditional methodology is to fit the model spectra to observed absorption lines and report the parameters with the lowest χ 2 error, which strongly relies on theoretical models that are not always publicly accessible. In this work, we construct a deep learning network to model-independently estimate T eff and log g of DA stars (DAs), corresponding to WDs with hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. The network is directly trained and tested on the normalized flux pixels of full optical wavelength range of DAs spectroscopically confirmed in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Experiments in test yield that the rms error for T eff and log g approaches 900 K and 0.1 dex, respectively. This technique is applicable for those DAs with T eff from 5000 to 40,000 K and log g from 7.0 to 9.0 dex. Furthermore, the applicability of this method is verified for the spectra with degraded resolution of ~200. So it is also practical for the analysis of DAs that will be detected by the Chinese Space Station Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

QuantumNAT: quantum noise-aware training with noise injection, quantization and normalization

Parameterized Quantum Circuits (PQC) are promising towards quantum advantage on near-term quantum hardware. However, due to the large quantum noises (errors), the performance of PQC models has a severe degradation on real quantum devices. Take Quantum Neural Network (QNN) as an example, the accuracy gap between noise-free simulation and noisy results on IBMQ-Yorktown for MNIST-4 classification is over 60%. Existing noise mitigation methods are general ones without leveraging unique characteristics of PQC; on the other hand, existing PQC work does not consider noise effect. To this end, we present QuantumNAT, a PQC-specific framework to perform noise-aware optimizations in both training and inference stages to improve robustness. We experimentally observe that the effect of quantum noise to PQC measurement outcome is a linear map from noise-free outcome with a scaling and a shift factor. Motivated by that, we propose post-measurement normalization to mitigate the feature distribution differences between noise-free and noisy scenarios. Furthermore, to improve the robustness against noise, we propose noise injection to the training process by inserting quantum error gates to PQC according to realistic noise models of quantum hardware. Lastly, post-measurement quantization is introduced to quantize the measurement outcomes to discrete values, achieving the denoising effect. Extensive experiments on 8 classification tasks using 6 quantum devices demonstrate that QuantumNAT improves accuracy by up to 43%, and achieves over 94% 2-class, 80% 4-class, and 34% 10-class classification accuracy measured on real quantum computers. The code for construction and noise-aware training of PQC is available in the TorchQuantum library.

Wang, Hanrui↗

Capturing the Page curve and entanglement dynamics of black holes in quantum computers

Quantum computers are emerging technologies expected to become important tools for exploring various aspects of fundamental physics in the future. Therefore, we pose the question of whether quantum computers can help us to study the Page curve and the black hole information dynamics, which has been a key focus in fundamental physics. In this regard, we rigorously examine the qubit transport model, a toy qubit model of black hole evaporation on IBM’s superconducting quantum computers, to shed light on this question. Specifically, we implement the quantum simulation of the scrambling dynamics in black holes using an efficient random unitary circuit. Furthermore, we employ the swap-based many-body interference protocol and the randomized measurement protocol to measure the entanglement entropy of Hawking radiation qubits in this model. Finally, by incorporating quantum error mitigation techniques into our challenging implementation of entanglement entropy measurement protocols on the IBM quantum hardware, we accurately determine the Rényi entropy in the qubit transport model, thus showcasing the utility of quantum computers for future investigations of complex quantum systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing Uncertainties and Approximations in Solar Heating of the Climate System

In calculating solar radiation, climate models make many simplifications, in part to reduce computational cost and enable climate modeling, and in part from lack of understanding of critical atmospheric information. Whether known errors or unknown errors, the community's concern is how these could impact the modeled climate. The simplifications are well known and most have published studies evaluating them, but with individual studies it is difficult to compare. Here, we collect a wide range of such simplifications in either radiative transfer modeling or atmospheric conditions and assess potential errors within a consistent framework on climate-relevant scales. We build benchmarking capability around a solar heating code (Solar-J) that doubles as a photolysis code for chemistry and can be readily adapted to consider other errors and uncertainties. The broad classes here include: use of broad wavelength bands to integrate over spectral features; scattering approximations that alter phase function and optical depths for clouds and gases; uncertainty in ice-cloud optics; treatment of fractional cloud cover including overlap; and variability of ocean surface albedo. We geographically map the errors in W m -2 using a full climate re-creation for January 2015 from a weather forecasting model. For many approximations assessed here, mean errors are ~2 W m -2 with greater latitudinal biases and are likely to affect a model’s ability to match the current climate state. Combining this work with previous studies, we make priority recommendations for fixing these simplifications based on both the magnitude of error and the ease or computational cost of the fix.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Developing an experimental-computational framework to investigate the deformation mechanisms and mechanical properties of Al-8Ce-10Mg alloys at micro and macroscales

There is a promising future for the use of aluminum-cerium-magnesium alloys in a broad range of applications, including devices that operate at high temperatures. With cerium currently considered a waste product of rare earth mining validation studies of possible applications are essential to reduce the environmental waste. Here, a computational-experimental framework is developed to investigate the role both the intermetallic and matrix have on the mechanical properties of these alloys. A set of experiments, including SEM/EBSD imaging, nanoindentation, in-situ SEM tensile testing, and in-situ SEM-DIC tests are performed to characterize the microstructure and mechanical properties of these alloys. Furthermore, the elastic, plastic, and failure deformation mechanisms of the microstructure, and their correlation with the bulk scale mechanical properties are investigated. Experimental results are also used to calibrate parameters for a crystal plasticity finite element model, by performing a computational framework that minimizes the error between the computational and experimental results. This model is then utilized to investigate how the area percentage of intermetallics and the crystallographic texture control the mechanical properties of the alloy. Simulation results show that an increase in the percentage of intermetallics increase the strength but decrease the ductility of the alloy. Also, a change in material texture improves strength and reduces damage that leads to material failure. The development of the crystal plasticity model, as discussed in this work, opens opportunities for future investigations of similar aluminum-cerium-magnesium alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning in particle accelerator applications

With the advent of increased computational resources and improved algorithms, machine learning-based models are being increasingly applied to complex problems in particle accelerators. However, such data-driven models may provide overly confident predictions with unknown errors and uncertainties. For reliable deployment of machine learning models in high-regret and safety-critical systems such as particle accelerators, estimates of prediction uncertainty are needed along with accurate point predictions. In this investigation, we evaluate Bayesian neural networks (BNN) as an approach that can provide accurate predictions along with reliably quantified uncertainties for particle accelerator problems, and compare their performance with bootstrapped ensembles of neural networks. We select three accelerator setups for this evaluation: a storage ring, a photoinjector, and a linac. The problems span different data volumes and dimensionalities (e.g., scalar predictions as well as image outputs). It is found that BNN provide accurate predictions of the mean along with reliable estimates of predictive uncertainty across the test cases. In this vein, BNN may offer an attractive alternative to deterministic deep learning tools to generate accurate predictions with quantified uncertainties in particle accelerator applications.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Development and validation of a mathematical model of heart rate response to fluid perturbation

Physiological closed-loop controlled (PCLC) medical devices monitor and automatically adjust the patient’s condition by using physiological variables as feedback, ideally with minimal human intervention to achieve the target levels set by a clinician. PCLC devices present a challenge when it comes to evaluating their performance, where conducting large clinical trials can be expensive. Virtual physiological patients simulated by validated mathematical models can be utilized to obtain preclinical evidence of safety and assess the performance of the PCLC medical device during normal and worst-case conditions that are unlikely to happen in a limited clinical trial. A physiological variable that plays a major role during fluid resuscitation is heart rate (HR). For in silico assessment of PCLC medical devices regarding fluid perturbation, there is currently no mathematical model of HR validated in terms of its predictive capability performance. This paper develops and validates a mathematical model of HR response using data collected from sheep subjects undergoing hemorrhage and fluid infusion. The model proved to be accurate in estimating the HR response to fluid perturbation, where averaged between 21 calibration datasets, the fitting performance showed a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 7.41 ± 2.8%. The model was also evaluated in terms of model predictive capability performance via a leave-one-out procedure (21 subjects) and an independent validation dataset (6 subjects). Two different virtual cohort generation tools were used in each validation analysis. The generated envelope of virtual subjects robustly met the defined acceptance criteria, in which 95% of the testing datasets presented simulated HR patterns that were within a deviation of 50% from the observed data. In addition, out of 16000 and 18522 simulated subjects for the leave one-out and independent datasets, the model was able to generate at least one virtual subject that was close to the real subject within an error margin of 9.56 ± 3.15% and 11.1 ± 1.22% NRMSE, respectively. In conclusion, the model can generate valid virtual HR physiological responses to fluid perturbation and be incorporated into future non-clinical simulated testing setups for assessing PCLC devices intended for fluid resuscitation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Toward shell model interactions with credible uncertainties

Background: The nuclear shell model is a powerful framework for predicting nuclear structure observables, but relies on interaction matrix elements fit to experimental data as its inputs. Extending the shell model's applicability, particularly toward dripline nuclei, requires efficient fitting methods and credible uncertainty quantification. Traditional approaches face computational challenges and may underestimate uncertainties. Purpose: We develop and test a framework combining eigenvector continuation and Markov chain Monte Carlo to efficiently fit shell model interaction matrix elements and quantify their uncertainties. Methods: Eigenvector continuation is used to emulate shell model calculations, reducing computational costs. The emulator enables Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to optimize interaction matrix elements and rigorously assess parametric uncertainties. Here, the framework is benchmarked using the USDB interaction in the 𝑠⁢𝑑 shell. Results: The emulator reproduces the USDB interaction with negligible error, validating its use in shell model fitting applications. However, we find that to obtain credible predictive intervals, the model defect of the shell model itself, rather than experimental or emulator error, must be taken into account in order to obtain credible uncertainties. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an efficient and rigorous approach for fitting shell model interactions and quantifying uncertainties. Further, the normality assumption used in the past appears sufficient to describe the distribution of interaction matrix elements. However, it is crucial to account for model correlations to avoid underestimating uncertainties.

Nuclear forces↗

FLOWERS AEP: An Analytical Model for Wind Farm Layout Optimization

Annual energy production (AEP) is commonly used in objective functions for wind farm layout optimization. AEP is proportional to wind farm power production integrated over an annual distribution of free-stream wind conditions. Physics-based estimates of wind farm power production typically rely on low-fidelity engineering wake models that approximate the steady-state wind farm flow field. AEP estimates are then obtained by performing independent simulations for discrete wind conditions and using rectangular quadrature to account for each condition's expected frequency of occurrence. Depending on the number of simulated discrete wind conditions, this numerical integral could be hampered by poor accuracy or high computational costs. The FLOWERS AEP model instead poses an analytical integral of the engineering wake model over the variable wind conditions, yielding a closed-form, analytical function for wind farm AEP. This paper derives the analytical functions for FLOWERS AEP and its derivatives with respect to turbine position, which are useful for gradient-based wind farm layout optimization, in nondimensional form. We then analyze the benefits of the FLOWERS AEP model over conventional reference models, focusing on its low cost, adequate wake loss predictions, and smooth design space. Although the FLOWERS approach is found to predict the exact value of AEP with some error relative to the reference model (within 14% on average), it dramatically reduces computation time by an order of magnitude, produces a qualitatively similar design space at relatively low resolution, and yields comparable optimal layouts. This significant speed improvement is critical in layout optimization applications, where determining an optimal layout in an efficient manner is more important than precise AEP prediction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Symplectic machine learning model for fast simulation of space-charge effects

Symplectic simulation of space-charge effects is crucial for the design and operation of high-intensity particle accelerators. Traditional methods for simulating these effects are often computationally expensive, resulting in significant overhead. In this work, we introduce a generative model based on a U-Net architecture within a generative adversarial network framework to efficiently simulate space-charge effects. The model is trained to predict the transverse multiparticle space-charge Hamiltonian, which can be physically computed using a gridless spectral method. The one-step symplectic transverse transfer map for the particles is then obtained by differentiating the predicted Hamiltonian. Benchmarking results demonstrate that this generative model achieves an order of magnitude higher computational efficiency compared to the spectral method, providing a highly efficient alternative for simulating space-charge effects with a large number of particles. By maintaining symplecticity, the model effectively preserves the phase-space structure and mitigates nonphysical errors in long-term simulations. This model has been integrated into jutrack, a novel autodifferentiable accelerator modeling code developed in the julia programming language.

Beam code development & simulation techniques↗

Generating MCNP Input Files for Unstructured Mesh Geometries

The Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (LANL) Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP)1 transport code version 6.3 (also known as MCNP6.3) has the capability for tracking particles on unstructured mesh (UM) geometry models embedded into constructive solid geometry (CSG) cells. This feature has been developed for performing calculations of complex geometry models because manually creating CSG models is time-consuming and error-prone as the complexities of geometries increase. A UM geometry model is a collection of finite elements representing a solid geometry. The first step of the MCNP UM calculation is using other software packages to create a finite element mesh representation of a solid 3D geometry because the MCNP code cannot be used to generate a UM model. Computer-aided design (CAD) software is typically used to create a solid geometry model, which is later imported into mesh generation software to create a UM model. Some mesh generation software packages may also be used to create solid geometries and thus CAD files are not needed. The MCNP UM feature was originally designed for models generated by the Abaqus/CAE software suite. The MCNP code version 6.0 and later can process UM models formatted as Abaqus input files. Starting with a 6.3 version, the MCNP code can process HDF5 mesh input files. We only focus on the UM models formatted as Abaqus input files in this report since currently no external software can be used to generate HDF5 mesh input files for MCNP UM calculations. The MCNP code version 6.3 can be used to convert the Abaqus mesh input files into the HDF5 mesh input files, but this option is typically used by the MCNP code development team to test the HDF5 mesh input file feature. Several software packages (such as Abaqus, Attila4MC, or Cubit) can be used to create the Abaqus input files for MCNP UM calculations. An MCNP UM calculation using an Abaqus model requires two input file types: MCNP and Abaqus input files. The Abaqus input files needed for MCNP UM calcu lations must have the correct Abaqus syntax and meet the additional requirements by the MCNP code. The MCNP code can process only Abaqus input files that make use of part and assembly definitions, where elements in each part must be grouped into one or more element sets (i.e., elset) using *Elset keyword lines with specified naming formats. The MCNP and Abaqus input files required for MCNP UM simulations must be related; pseudo-cells in an MCNP input file must be constructed from mesh model data from an Abaqus input file. For large complex UM models, it is tedious to manually create MCNP UM input files. The um pre op (unstructured mesh pre operations) program with the -m option can be used to create a skeleton MCNP input file from an Abaqus input file [6]. Since the um pre op program was written in Fortran and was not written for optimized performance, this program is a deprecated feature in the MCNP code version 6.3 and may be removed in the next release of the code. To improve calculation flow of multiphysics calculations, a Python3 code called write mcnp um input has been developed to generate an MCNP input file instead of using the um_pre_op -m option. This Python code was initially released to the public in 2020. We have updated this Python code for MCNP6.3 and it was used to generate the MCNP input files used to verify the MCNP6.3 code. The write_mcnp_um_input code is included with the MCNP6.3 code package which will be released to the public through the Radiation Safety Information Computational Center (RSICC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This report is a revision of LA-UR-20-27139 report.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Finite Element Analysis System Workflow Tools

A collection of MATLAB functions and class definitions called System Workflow Tools (SWFT) are available to semi-automate steps in the simulation process. Some of these steps are often simple and routine for smaller finite element models, but if done directly by an analyst can quickly become labor intensive, cumbersome, and error prone for larger, system level models. Some of SWFT’s capabilities demonstrated in this report includes writing Sierra input decks and processing Quantities of Interest (QOI) from results files. SWFT also writes scripts in order to utilize other software programs such as Cubit (separating system level CAD into subassemblies and components, creating nodesets and sidesets), DAKOTA (ensemble management), and ParaView (contour plots and animations). Detailed commands and workflows from mesh generation to report generation are provided as examples for analysts to utilize SWFT capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantifying Errors in Effective Cluster Interactions of Lattice Gas Cluster Expansions

The promise of lattice gas (LG) cluster expansions (CEs) is that they can describe a given system property to any level of accuracy since the orthogonal “cluster basis functions” span the complete space of available configurations. Such an approach can be constructed to an arbitrarily large surface of a finite number of distinct adsorption sites. Unfortunately, this is only true for the case of an ideal, fixed lattice decorated with components at precise lattice points (the lattice “sites”) with no distortions or relaxations subsequently allowed. Since most systems, and surfaces specifically, do not conform to such an ideal set of constraints, errors in LG CEs must be expected or CE convergence severely hampered. Beyond this, numerical errors in the provided data can complicate the proper construction of a truly predictive and/or physically significant CE. In this work, we show here how reliance on typical statistical tools like confidence intervals cannot be expected to provide an accurate representation of the uncertainty of effective cluster interactions (ECIs) in the CE due to the nature of the target ab initio data and the nature of CEs themselves. We develop a method for estimating these errors that does not rely on statistical assumptions about the model or data. We then use these ECI errors to quantify fundamental consequences on the uncertainty of ECIs in CEs built from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates have been allowed to relax in a typical manner and from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates are fixed in ideal lattice positions. We also quantify the effect of using a different density functional theory exchange–correlation functional, using these ECI errors to assess the significance in any deviations. In both cases, our method is shown to have remarkable utility in the quantification of errors in the ECIs of CEs. While we stick to the lattice gas convention in this work, the method is equally applicable to the Ising convention or, in principle, any linear model of sufficient complexity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Editorial: Resolving atmospheric flow in complex environments: recent experiments in terrain and forest canopies

The characterization of atmospheric flows in complex environments, which may include steep terrain slopes and heterogeneous vegetation and/or forest cover, is a long-standing challenge in boundary-layer meteorology. Atmospheric observations are complicated by the presence of transient, terrain-induced flow features, forest-canopy-atmosphere interactions, and atmospheric stability effects, not to mention the logistical hurdles involved with instrument deployment, data analysis, and quality control. Furthermore, challenges in atmospheric modeling arise due to numerical errors associated with complex terrain flows, as well as reliance on simplified parameterizations for unresolved processes such as turbulent mixing and land-surface or forest-canopy-atmosphere interactions. These modeling challenges are exacerbated in the so-called “gray zone,” wherein features of interest have length scales that are similar to the model grid spacing, or when the principal flow layer is smaller than the grid spacing (e.g., slope flows).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗