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DOE OSTI2020

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R 0 ) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). Here, we further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SGR A* and its environment: low-mass star formation, the origin of X-ray gas and collimated outflow

We present high-resolution multiwavelength radio continuum images of the region within 150″ of Sgr A*, revealing a number of new extended features and stellar sources in this region. First, we detect a continuous 2″ east–west ridge of radio emission, linking Sgr A* and a cluster of stars associated with IRS 13 N and IRS 13E. The ridge suggests that an outflow of east–west blob-like structures is emerging from Sgr A*. In particular, we find arc-like radio structures within the ridge with morphologies suggestive of photoevaporative protoplanetary disks. We use infrared K{sub s} and L′ fluxes to show that the emission has similar characteristics to those of a protoplanetary disk irradiated by the intense radiation field at the Galactic center. This suggests that star formation has taken place within the S-cluster 2″ from Sgr A*. We suggest that the diffuse X-ray emission associated with Sgr A* is due to an expanding hot wind produced by the mass loss from B-type main sequence stars, and/or the disks of photoevaporation of low mass young stellar objects (YSOs) at a rate of ∼10{sup −6} M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1}. The proposed model naturally reduces the inferred accretion rate and is an alternative to the inflow–outflow style models to explain the underluminous nature of Sgr A*. Second, on a scale of 5″ from Sgr A*, we detect new cometary radio and infrared sources at a position angle PA ∼ 50° which is similar to that of two other cometary sources X3 and X7, all of which face Sgr A*. In addition, we detect a striking tower of radio emission at a PA ∼ 50°–60° along the major axis of the Sgr A East supernova remnant shell on a scale of 150″ from Sgr A*. We suggest that the cometary sources and the tower feature are tracing interaction sites of a mildly relativistic jet from Sgr A* with the atmosphere of stars and the nonthermal Sgr A East shell at a PA ∼ 50°–60° with M-dot ∼1×10{sup −7} M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1}, and opening angle 10°. Lastly, we suggest that the east–west ridge of radio emission traces an outflow that is potentially associated with past flaring activity from Sgr A*. The position angle of the outflow driven by flaring activity is close to −90°.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

WHAT IS CONTROLLING THE FRAGMENTATION IN THE INFRARED DARK CLOUD G14.225–0.506?: DIFFERENT LEVELS OF FRAGMENTATION IN TWIN HUBS

We present observations of the 1.3 mm continuum emission toward hub-N and hub-S of the infrared dark cloud G14.225–0.506 carried out with the Submillimeter Array, together with observations of the dust emission at 870 and 350 μm obtained with APEX and CSO telescopes. The large-scale dust emission of both hubs consists of a single peaked clump elongated in the direction of the associated filament. At small scales, the SMA images reveal that both hubs fragment into several dust condensations. The fragmentation level was assessed under the same conditions and we found that hub-N presents 4 fragments while hub-S is more fragmented, with 13 fragments identified. We studied the density structure by means of a simultaneous fit of the radial intensity profile at 870 and 350 μm and the spectral energy distribution adopting a Plummer-like function to describe the density structure. The parameters inferred from the model are remarkably similar in both hubs, suggesting that density structure could not be responsible for determining the fragmentation level. We estimated several physical parameters, such as the level of turbulence and the magnetic field strength, and we found no significant differences between these hubs. The Jeans analysis indicates that the observed fragmentation is more consistent with thermal Jeans fragmentation compared with a scenario in which turbulent support is included. The lower fragmentation level observed in hub-N could be explained in terms of stronger UV radiation effects from a nearby H ii region, evolutionary effects, and/or stronger magnetic fields at small scales, a scenario that should be further investigated.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Kiloparsec mass/light offsets in the galaxy pair-Lyα emitter lens system SDSS J1011+0143

We report the discovery of significant mass/light offsets in the strong gravitational lensing system SDSS J1011+0143. We use the high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope (HST) F555W- and F814W-band imaging and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopy of this system, which consists of a close galaxy pair with a projected separation of ≈4.2 kpc at z{sub lens} ∼ 0.331 lensing an Lyα emitter (LAE) at z{sub source} = 2.701. Comparisons between the mass peaks inferred from lens models and light peaks from HST imaging data reveal significant spatial mass/light offsets as large as 1.72 ± 0.24 ± 0.34 kpc in both filter bands. Such large mass/light offsets, not seen in isolated field lens galaxies and relaxed galaxy groups, may be related to the interactions between the two lens galaxies. The detected mass/light offsets can potentially serve as an important test for the self-interacting dark matter model. However, other mechanisms such as dynamical friction on spatially differently distributed dark matter and stars could produce similar offsets. Detailed hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy–galaxy interactions with self-interacting dark matter could accurately quantify the effects of different mechanisms. The background LAE is found to contain three distinct star-forming knots with characteristic sizes from 116 to 438 pc. It highlights the power of strong gravitational lensing in probing the otherwise too faint and unresolved structures of distance objects below subkiloparsec or even 100 pc scales through its magnification effect.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

IMAGING OBSERVATIONS OF THE HYDROGEN COMA OF COMET 67P/CHURYUMOV–GERASIMENKO IN 2015 SEPTEMBER BY THE PROCYON/LAICA

The water production rate of a comet is one of the fundamental parameters necessary to understand cometary activity when a comet approaches the Sun within 2.5 au, because water is the most abundant icy material in the cometary nucleus. Wide-field imaging observations of the hydrogen Lyα emission in comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko were performed by the Lyman Alpha Imaging Camera (LAICA) on board the 50 kg class micro spacecraft, the Proximate Object Close Flyby with Optical Navigation (PROCYON), on UT 2015 September 7.40, 12.37, and 13.17 (corresponding to 25.31, 30.28, and 31.08 days after the perihelion passage of the comet, respectively). We derive the water production rates, Q{sub H{sub 2O}}, of the comet from Lyα images of the comet by using a 2D axi-symmetric Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo model of the atomic hydrogen coma; (1.46 ± 0.47) × 10{sup 28}, (1.24 ± 0.40) × 10{sup 28}, and (1.30 ± 0.42) × 10{sup 28} molecules s{sup −1} on 7.40, 12.37, and 13.17 September, respectively. These values are comparable to the values from in situ measurements by the Rosetta instruments in the 2015 apparition and the ground-based and space observations during the past apparitions. The comet did not show significant secular change in average water production rates just after the perihelion passage for the apparitions from 1982 to 2015. We emphasize that the measurements of absolute Q{sub H{sub 2O}} based on the wide field of view (e.g., by the LAICA/PROCYON) are so important to judge the soundness of the coma models used to infer Q{sub H{sub 2O}} based on in situ measurements by spacecraft, like the Rosetta.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Excitation and Depletion of the Asteroid Belt in the Early Instability Scenario

Containing only a few percentages of the mass of the moon, the current asteroid belt is around three to four orders of magnitude smaller than its primordial mass inferred from disk models. Yet dynamical studies have shown that the asteroid belt could not have been depleted by more than about an order of magnitude over the past ∼4 Gyr. The remainder of the mass loss must have taken place during an earlier phase of the solar system’s evolution. An orbital instability in the outer solar system occurring during the process of terrestrial planet formation can reproduce the broad characteristics of the inner solar system. Here, we test the viability of this model within the constraints of the main belt’s low present-day mass and orbital structure. Although previous studies modeled asteroids as massless test particles because of limited computing power, our work uses graphics processing unit acceleration to model a fully self-gravitating asteroid belt. We find that depletion in the main belt is related to the giant planets’ exact evolution within the orbital instability. Simulations that produce the closest matches to the giant planets’ current orbits deplete the main belt by two to three orders of magnitude. These simulated asteroid belts are also good matches to the actual asteroid belt in terms of their radial mixing and broad orbital structure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Relativistic Magnetic Reconnection in Electron–Positron–Proton Plasmas: Implications for Jets of Active Galactic Nuclei

Magnetic reconnection is often invoked to explain the nonthermal radiation of relativistic outflows, including jets of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Motivated by the largely unknown plasma composition of AGN jets, we study reconnection in the unexplored regime of electron–positron–proton (pair-proton) plasmas with large-scale two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations. We cover a wide range of pair multiplicities (lepton-to-proton number ratio κ = 1–199) for different values of the all-species plasma magnetization (σ = 1, 3, and 10) and electron temperature (${{\rm{\Theta }}}_{e}\equiv {{kT}}_{e}/{m}_{e}{c}^{2}=0.1\mbox{--}100$). We focus on the dependence of the post-reconnection energy partition and lepton energy spectra on the hot pair plasma magnetization ${\sigma }_{e,h}$ (i.e., the ratio of magnetic to pair enthalpy densities). We find that the post-reconnection energy is shared roughly equally between magnetic fields, pairs, and protons for ${\sigma }_{e,h}$ gsim 3. We empirically find that the mean lepton Lorentz factor in the post-reconnection region depends on σ, Θ e , and ${\sigma }_{e,h}$ as $\langle {\gamma }_{e}-1\rangle \approx \sqrt{\sigma }(1+4{{\rm{\Theta }}}_{e})\left(1+{\sigma }_{e,h}/30\right)$, for σ ≥ 1. The high-energy part of the post-reconnection lepton energy distributions can be described by a power law, whose slope is mainly controlled by ${\sigma }_{e,h}$ for κ gsim 3–6, with harder power laws obtained for higher magnetizations. We finally show that reconnection in pair-proton plasmas with multiplicities κ ~ 1–20, magnetizations σ ~ 1–10, and temperatures Θ e ~ 1–10 results in particle power-law slopes and average electron Lorentz factors that are consistent with those inferred in leptonic models of AGN jet emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

SAGAbg. I. A Near-unity Mass-loading Factor in Low-mass Galaxies via Their Low-redshift Evolution in Stellar Mass, Oxygen Abundance, and Star Formation Rate

Measuring the relation between star formation and galactic winds is observationally difficult. In this work we make an indirect measurement of the mass-loading factor (the ratio between the mass outflow rate and star formation rate) in low-mass galaxies using a differential approach to modeling the low-redshift evolution of the star-forming main sequence and mass–metallicity relation. We use Satellites Around Galactic Analogs (SAGA) background galaxies, i.e., spectra observed by the SAGA Survey that are not associated with the main SAGA host galaxies, to construct a sample of 11,925 spectroscopically confirmed low-mass galaxies from 0.01 ≲ z ≤ 0.21 and measure auroral line metallicities for 120 galaxies. The crux of the method is to use the lowest-redshift galaxies as the boundary condition of our model, and to infer a mass-loading factor for the sample by comparing the expected evolution of the low-redshift reference sample in stellar mass, gas-phase metallicity, and star formation rate against the observed properties of the sample at higher redshift. We infer a mass-loading factor of η m = $0.92^{+1.76}_{-0.74}$, which is in line with direct measurements of the mass-loading factor from the literature despite the drastically different sets of assumptions needed for each approach. While our estimate of the mass-loading factor is in good agreement with recent galaxy simulations that focus on resolving the dynamics of the interstellar medium, it is smaller by over an order of magnitude than the mass-loading factor produced by many contemporary cosmological simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Stochastic Approach to Reconstruct Gamma-Ray-burst Light Curves

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), as they are observed at high redshift ( z = 9.4), are vital to cosmological studies and investigating Population III stars. To tackle these studies, we need correlations among relevant GRB variables with the requirement of small uncertainties on their variables. Thus, we must have good coverage of GRB light curves (LCs). However, gaps in the LC hinder the precise determination of GRB properties and are often unavoidable. Therefore, extensive categorization of GRB LCs remains a hurdle. We address LC gaps using a stochastic reconstruction, wherein we fit two preexisting models (the Willingale model; W07; and a broken power law; BPL) to the observed LC, then use the distribution of flux residuals from the original data to generate data to fill in the temporal gaps. We also demonstrate a model-independent LC reconstruction via Gaussian processes. At 10% noise, the uncertainty of the end time of the plateau, its correspondent flux, and the temporal decay index after the plateau decreases by 33.3%, 35.03%, and 43.32% on average for the W07, and by 33.3%, 30.78%, 43.9% for the BPL, respectively. The uncertainty of the slope of the plateau decreases by 14.76% in the BPL. After using the Gaussian process technique, we see similar trends of a decrease in uncertainty for all model parameters for both the W07 and BPL models. These improvements are essential for the application of GRBs as standard candles in cosmology, for the investigation of theoretical models, and for inferring the redshift of GRBs with future machine-learning analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards Fast and Accurate Predictions of Radio Frequency Power Deposition and Current Profile via Data-driven Modeling

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest, and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modeling and real-time control applications. The machine learning models use a database of 16,000+ GENRAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation, and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods ensure that the database covers the range of 9 input parameters ($n_{e0}$, $T_{e0}$, $I_p$, $B_t$, $R_0$, $n_{||}$, $Z_{eff}$, $V_{loop}$, $P_{LHCD}$) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the inference time from minutes to ~ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1971

Rocket-based measurement of Birkeland currents related to an auroral arc and electrojet.

A rocket-borne experiment performed to study currents associated with a quiet auroral arc is discussed. The magnetic field in the vicinity of the arc was measured with a vector magnetometer, while the orientation of the payload was determined with a lunar-aspect sensor. Possible current configurations were inferred by constructing model current systems that reproduced the magnetic field variations measured along the flight path. The data are interpreted in terms of a model current system consisting of a northwestward electrojet and two oppositely directed Birkeland sheet currents, all lying in planes approximately parallel to the auroral arc. The current density integrated through the 16-km thickness of each Birkeland current sheet was found to be roughly 0.16 A/m. The electrojet current was roughly 6000 A.

Park, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Measurements of field-aligned currents in a multiple auroral arc system

A rocket-borne experiment to study the currents associated with a system of multiple auroral arcs was conducted at Poker Flat, Alaska, at 1122 UT on Feb. 2, 1972. The magnetic field in the vicinity of the auroral system was measured with a cesium vector magnetometer. Possible configurations were inferred by constructing model current systems that reproduced the magnetic field variations measured along the flight path. The data are interpreted in terms of a model current system consisting of two eastward electrojets and one westward electrojet and three pairs of oppositely directed Birkeland sheet currents, all lying in a plane approximately parallel to the auroral arcs. Sheet thicknesses ranged from 20 to 60 km and current densities from 10 to 45 microampere/sq m; the electrojet currents ranged from 1000 to 2000 A. A possible alternate model consisted of four pairs of sheets whose thicknesses range from 10 to 40 km with current densities from 10 to 90 microampere/sq m. There was quite good agreement between the locations of the visual arcs and the upward current sheets. The overall current configuration is discussed in view of the theoretical models constructed by Atkinson and Sato and Holzer and of other observations.

Sesiano, J.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Crystallization of a lunar magma ocean

The results of applying the presently most detailed thermal model to the cooling, crystallization and differentiation of a lunar magma ocean are used to delineate its general features, i.e., those features that are model independent within reasonable variations in ocean characteristics. Two primitive lunar compositions are used to illustrate the effect of different compositions and phase equilibria on the solidification time and mineralogy of magma oceans. The magma ocean thermal model led to some inferences about the thermal evolution of the outer portion of the moon modeled as isolated magma pods rather than as a magma ocean.

Minear, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Collapsing cloud models for Bok globules

The dynamic collapse of rotating gas clouds is calculated for a wide range of initial conditions. Properties of cloud models are compared with observed radio and optical properties of Bok globules, to test the hypothesis that globules undergo collapse and to determine parameters which are not easily observed. Five of the six globules studied are consistent with collapse models. It is inferred that these objects have masses of about 100 solar masses and ages smaller than their free-fall times. Inferred initial densities are much larger than minimum densities for gravitational collapse, suggesting that collapse is initiated by strong external compression or that globules are fragments of larger condensed clouds. Values inferred for the (C-13)O/H2 ratio are smaller than previous estimates and depend strongly on cloud density.

Villere, K. R.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Electromagnet configurations for extreme attitude testing in magnetic suspension and balance systems

The inclusion of adequate versatility into the electromagnet array configuration requires sizing the electromagnets to satisfy particular absolute force and moment requirements. Magnetic performance of a permanent magnet model core, air cored electromagnet may easily and reliably be computed by using the FORCE program which calculates model forces and moments via representations of the model as an assembly of dipoles and the electromagnets as an assembly of line currents. Some aspects of the performance of an ellipsoidal iron cored model may be inferred from the above under certain circumstances.

Britcher, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Lunar volcanic glasses and their constraints on mare petrogenesis

The compositional properties of volcanic glasses from the Apollo 11, 14, 15 and 16 landing sites are examined and implications of the results for mare basalt petrogenesis and deep lunar structures are discussed. Major-element and nickel analyses were performed on the glasses using electron probe techniques, and R-mode principal component analysis was performed on the 19 different compositions of glass distinguished. The glasses are found to form two distinct chemical arrays based on the major elements and Ni. The presence of two chemically isolated cumulate systems in the mantle at different depths is thus inferred, and a model is developed for mare petrogenesis in which each system was itself composed of two lithologic components that underwent hybridization, assimilation or mixing to generate the large compositional range of magmas represented by the lunar volcanic glasses. The surface-correlated elements associated with the volcanic glasses are attributed to another reservoir in the deep interior which may be responsible for gas emissions causing lunar transient phenomena. The model developed allows predictions to be made concerning the liquidus phase relations, trace and radiogenic element distributions, nonradiogenic isotope compositions and sample ages.

Delano, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A statistical examination of Nimbus 7 SMMR data and remote sensing of sea surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere and surfaces wind speed

Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) brightness temperature measurements over the global oceans have been examined with the help of statistical and empirical techniques. Such analyses show that zonal averages of brightness temperature measured by SMMR, over the oceans, on a large scale are primarily influenced by the water vapor in the atmosphere. Liquid water in the clouds and rain, which has a much smaller spatial and temporal scale, contributes substantially to the variability of the SMMR measurements within the latitudinal zones. The surface wind not only increases the surface emissivity but through its interactions with the atmosphere produces correlations, in the SMMR brightness temperature data, that have significant meteorological implications. It is found that a simple meteorological model can explain the general characteristics of the SMMR data. With the help of this model methods to infer over the global oceans, the surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere, and surface wind speed are developed. Monthly mean estimates of the sea surface temperature and surface winds are compared with the ship measurements. Estimates of liquid water content in the atmosphere are consistent with earlier satellite measurements.

Prabhakara, C.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Radial diffusion in Saturn's radiation belts - A modeling analysis assuming satellite and ring E absorption

A modeling analysis is carried out of six experimental phase space density profiles for nearly equatorially mirroring protons using methods based on the approach of Thomsen et al. (1977). The form of the time-averaged radial diffusion coefficient D(L) that gives an optimal fit to the experimental profiles is determined under the assumption that simple satellite plus Ring E absorption of inwardly diffusing particles and steady-state radial diffusion are the dominant physical processes affecting the proton data in the L range that is modeled. An extension of the single-satellite model employed by Thomsen et al. to a model that includes multisatellite and ring absorption is described, and the procedures adopted for estimating characteristic satellite and ring absorption times are defined. The results obtained in applying three representative solid-body absorption models to evaluate D(L) in the range where L is between 4 and 16 are reported, and a study is made of the sensitivity of the preferred amplitude and L dependence for D(L) to the assumed model parameters. The inferred form of D(L) is then compared with that which would be predicted if various proposed physical mechanisms for driving magnetospheric radial diffusion are operative at Saturn.

Hood, L. L.↗