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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal gradient effect on helium and self-interstitial transport in tungsten

First-wall materials in a fusion reactor are expected to withstand harsh conditions, with high heat and particle fluxes that modify the materials microstructure. These fluxes will create strong gradients of temperature and concentration of diverse species. Besides the He ash and the hydrogenic species, neutron particles generated in the fusion reaction will collide with the material creating intrinsic defects, such as vacancies, self-interstitials atoms (SIAs), and clusters of such point defects. These defects and the He atoms will then migrate in the presence of the aforementioned gradients. In this study, we use nonequilibrium molecular dynamics to analyze the transport of He and SIAs in the presence of a thermal gradient in tungsten. We observe that, in all cases, the defects and impurity atoms tend to migrate toward the hot regions of the tungsten sample. The resulting species concentration profiles are exponential distributions, rising toward the hot regions of the sample, in agreement with irreversible thermodynamics analysis. For both He atoms and SIAs, we find that the resulting species flux is directed opposite to the heat flux, indicating that species transport is governed by a Soret effect (thermal-gradient-driven diffusion) characterized by a negative heat of transport that drives species diffusion uphill (from the cooler to the hot regions of the sample). Here, we demonstrate that the steady-state species profiles obtained accounting for the Soret effect vary significantly from those where temperature-gradient-driven transport is not considered and discuss the implications of such a Soret effect on the response to plasma exposure of plasma-facing tungsten.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

An optoelectronic heterostructure for neuromorphic computing: CdS/V 3 O 5

Nonvolatile resistive switching is one of the key phenomena for emerging applications in optoelectronics and neuromorphic computing. In most of the cases, an electric field is applied to a two terminal dielectric material device and leads to the formation of a low resistance filament due to ion migration. However, the stochastic nature of the ion migration can be an impediment for the device robustness and controllability, with uncontrolled variations of high and low resistance states or threshold voltages. Here, we report an optically induced resistive switching based on a CdS/V 3 O 5 heterostructure which can overcome this issue. V 3 O 5 is known to have a second order insulator to metal transition around T c ≈ 415 K, with an electrically induced threshold switching at room temperature. Upon illumination, the direct transfer of the photoinduced carriers from the CdS into V 3 O 5 produces a nonvolatile resistive switching at room temperature. The initial high resistance can be recovered by reaching the high temperature metallic phase, i.e., temperatures above T c . Interestingly, this resistive switching becomes volatile around the T c . In conclusion, by locally manipulating the volatile and nonvolatile resistive switching using electric field and light, this system is a promising platform for hardware based neuromorphic computing implementations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dean vortex-enhanced blood plasma separation in self-driven spiral microchannel flow with cross-flow microfilters

Point-of-care (POC) diagnostic devices have been developing rapidly in recent years, but they are mainly using saliva instead of blood as a test sample. A highly efficient self-separation during the self-driven flow without power systems is desired for expanding the point-of-care diagnostic devices. Microfiltration stands out as a promising technique for blood plasma separation but faces limitations due to blood cell clogging, resulting in reduced separation speed and efficiency. These limitations are mainly caused by the high viscosity and hematocrit in the blood flow. A small increment in the hematocrit of the blood significantly increases the pressure needed for the blood plasma separation in the micro-filters and decreases the separation speed and efficiency. Addressing this challenge, this study explores the feasibility of diluting whole blood within a microfluidic device without external power systems. This study implemented a spiral microchannel utilizing the inertial focusing and Dean vortex effects to focus the red blood cells and extract the blood with lower hematocrit. The inertial migration of the particles during the capillary flow was first investigated experimentally; a maximum of 88% of the particles migrated to the bottom and top equilibrium positions in the optimized 350 × 60 μm (cross-sectional area, 5.8 aspect ratio) microchannel. With the optimized dimension of the microchannel, the whole blood samples within the physiological hematocrit range were tested in the experiments, and more than 10% of the hematocrit reduction was compared between the outer branch outlet and inner branch outlet in the 350 × 60 μm microchannel.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast lithium ion diffusion in brownmillerite Li x Sr 2 Co 2 O 5

Transition metal oxides not only exhibits novel magnetic properties but also provides outstanding ionic transports. Ionic conductors have great potential for interesting tunable physical properties via ionic liquid gating and novel energy storage applications such as all-solid-state lithium batteries. In particular, low migration barriers and high hopping attempt frequency are the keys to achieve fast ion diffusion in solids. Taking advantage of the oxygen-vacancy channel in Li x Sr 2 Co 2 O 5 , we show that migration barriers of lithium ion are as small as 0.28–0.17 eV depending on the lithium concentration rates. Our first-principles calculation also investigated hopping attempt frequency and concluded the room temperature ionic diffusivity and ion conductivity are high as 10 −7 –10 −6 cm 2 s −1 and 10 −3 –10 −2 Scm −1 , respectively, which outperform most of perovskite-type, garnet-type, and sulfide Li-ion solid-state electrolytes. This work proves Li x Sr 2 Co 2 O 5 as a promising super-ionic conductor.

Crystallographic defects↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of interatomic potential and effect of ordering on defect properties in CrMnV

Developing materials that can withstand extreme environments, such as high radiation doses and elevated temperatures, is crucial for next-generation particle accelerators, including the 2.4 MW Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility. High-Entropy Alloys have emerged as promising candidates for beam window materials due to their superior mechanical strength, corrosion resistance, and radiation tolerance. In this study, we focus on the Cr–Mn–V alloy system, developing and employing machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) to investigate the formation of an ordered phase and its influence on defect properties. Using hybrid Monte Carlo-Molecular Dynamics simulations, we observe the formation of a B2-ordered phase at lower temperatures, consistent with Density Functional Theory (DFT) predictions. Ordered structures display a bimodal distribution of migration energies and reduced mean square displacement values, indicating suppressed vacancy diffusion. Our results also show that the migration energy barrier varies based on the atomic species, with Mn and V exhibiting the highest and lowest average barriers, respectively. These findings suggest that atomic ordering inhibits defect mobility, potentially enhancing the radiation resistance of CrMnV alloys. The validated MLIP provides a reliable framework for simulations that are faster than traditional DFT while maintaining the accuracy required to study defect and ordering properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mapping the Temperature-dependent and network site-specific onset of spectral diffusion at the surface of a water cluster cage

We explore the kinetic processes that sustain equilibrium in a microscopic, finite system. This is accomplished by monitoring the spontaneous, time-dependent frequency evolution (the frequency autocorrelation) of a single OH oscillator, embedded in a water cluster held in a temperature-controlled ion trap. The measurements are carried out by applying two-color, IR-IR photodissociation mass spectrometry to the D3O+?(HDO)(D2O)19 isotopologue of the “magic number” protonated water cluster, H+?(H2O)21. The OH group can occupy any one of the five spectroscopically distinct sites in the distorted pentagonal dodecahedron cage structure. The OH frequency is observed to evolve over tens of milliseconds in the temperature range (90-120 K). Starting at 100 K, large “jumps” are observed between two OH frequencies separated by ~300 cm-1 indicating migration of the OH group from the bound OH site at 3350 cm-1 to the free position at 3686 cm-1. Increasing the temperature to 110 K leads to partial interconversion among many sites. All sites are observed to interconvert at 120 K such that the distribution of the unique OH group among them adopts the form one would expect for a canonical ensemble. The spectral dynamics displayed by the clusters thus offer an unprecedented view into the molecular-level processes that drive spectral diffusion in an extended network of water molecules.

Yang, Nan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sculpting crystals one Burgers vector at a time: Toward colloidal lattice robot swarms

Plastic deformation of crystalline materials with isotropic particle attractions proceeds by the creation and migration of dislocations under the influence of external forces. If dislocations are produced and migrated under the action of local forces, then material shape change can occur without the application of surface forces. We investigate how particles with variable diameters can be embedded in colloidal monolayers to produce dislocations on demand. Additionally, we find in simulation that when embedded clusters of variable diameter particles are taken through multiple cycles of swelling and shrinking, large cumulative plastic slip is produced by the creation and biased motion of dislocation pairs in the solid for embedded clusters of particular geometries. In this way, dislocations emitted by these clusters (biased “dislocation emitters”) can be used to reshape colloidal matter. Our results are also applicable to larger-scale swarms of robotic particles that organize into dense ordered two-dimensional (2D) arrangements. We conclude with a discussion of how dislocations fulfill for colloids the role sought by “metamodules” in lattice robotics research and show how successive applications of shear as a unit operation can produce shape change through slicing and swirling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Self-consistent dispersal puts tight constraints on the spatiotemporal organization of species-rich metacommunities

Dispersal can be critical to the maintenance of ecosystems as it allows local communities to be recolonized after extinction. However, it remains unclear whether the extinction-mitigating effect of dispersal persists when the number of competing species is large. Based on a spatially explicit mathematical description of metacommunities, we show that when many species coexist, each species operates near its extinction threshold, barely surviving due to dispersal. This has general consequences for spatiotemporal abundance patterns. For short-range dispersal, species organize into fractal spatiotemporal extinction patterns characteristic of a directed percolation phase transition. As species approach their extinction threshold, biodiversity is very sensitive to perturbation, suggesting that dispersal within a metacommunity puts tight constraints on the robustness and evolution of species-rich metacommunities. Biodiversity is often attributed to a dynamic equilibrium between the immigration and extinction of species. This equilibrium forms a common basis for studying ecosystem assembly from a static reservoir of migrants—the mainland. Yet, natural ecosystems often consist of many coupled communities (i.e., metacommunities), and migration occurs between these communities. The pool of migrants then depends on what is sustained in the ecosystem, which, in turn, depends on the dynamic migrant pool. This chicken-and-egg problem of survival and dispersal is poorly understood in communities of many competing species, except for the neutral case—the “unified neutral theory of biodiversity.” Employing spatiotemporal simulations and mean-field analyses, we show that self-consistent dispersal puts rather tight constraints on the dynamic migration–extinction equilibrium. When the number of species is large, species are pushed to the edge of their global extinction, even when competition is weak. As a consequence, the overall diversity is highly sensitive to perturbations in demographic parameters, including growth and dispersal rates. When dispersal is short range, the resulting spatiotemporal abundance patterns follow broad scale-free distributions that correspond to a directed percolation phase transition. The qualitative agreement of our results for short-range and long-range dispersal suggests that this self-organization process is a general property of species-rich metacommunities. Our study shows that self-sustaining metacommunities are highly sensitive to environmental change and provides insights into how biodiversity can be rescued and maintained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Osmotic and phoretic competition explains chemotaxic assembly and sorting

Microscale objects responding to chemical gradients by migrating toward or away from a preferred species is a simple yet constitutive mechanism by which transport occurs in biological organisms. Synthetic chemotaxis provides key physical descriptions of simplified systems that can be used in biological models, or in the creation of advanced responsive material systems. In this article, we provide a quantitative framework for understanding synthetic chemotaxis of microparticles which involves a competition between phoresis and osmosis. We present separate quantitative measurements of phoresis and osmosis acting on individual taxing particles, finding that phoresis follows the long-predicted v ∼ 1 / r 2 scaling while the osmotic contribution depends on the geometry and details of the system, and must be solved on a case-by-case basis. Through this, we are able to develop a more accurate picture of particle transport at the single particle level. Equipped with this approach, we go on to describe how high concentrations of particles in a symmetric chemical gradient grow close-packed hives that reach a steady-state size tunable through light intensity or particle size. Last, we demonstrate that mixed particles experiencing the same chemical gradient will selectively migrate toward or away depending on the nature of the particle surface, thereby locally sorting out a particular species. We anticipate these results will be important in describing both biological and synthetic chemotaxis in phoretic systems and should bring a wealth of studies that take advantage of competing osmotic flows to illicit unexpected dynamic active behavior.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Population structure limits the use of genomic data for predicting phenotypes and managing genetic resources in forest trees

There is overwhelming evidence that forest trees are locally adapted to climate. Thus, genecological models based on population phenotypes have been used to measure local adaptation, infer genetic maladaptation to climate, and guide assisted migration. However, instead of phenotypes, there is increasing interest in using genomic data for gene resource management. We used whole-genome resequencing and common-garden experiments to understand the genetic architecture of adaptive traits in black cottonwood. We studied the potential of using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and genomic prediction to detect causal loci, identify climate-adapted phenotypes, and inform gene resource management. We analyzed population structure by partitioning phenotypic and genomic (single-nucleotide polymorphism) variation among 840 genotypes collected from 91 stands along 16 rivers. Most phenotypic variation (60 to 81%) occurred among populations and was strongly associated with climate. Population phenotypes were predicted well using genomic data (e.g., predictive abilityr> 0.9) but almost as well using climate or geography (r> 0.8). In contrast, genomic prediction within populations was poor (r< 0.2). We identified many GWAS associations among populations, but most appeared to be spurious based on pooled within-population analyses. Hierarchical partitioning of linkage disequilibrium and haplotype sharing suggested that within-population genomic prediction and GWAS were poor because allele frequencies of causal loci and linked markers differed among populations. Given the urgent need to conserve natural populations and ecosystems, our results suggest that climate variables alone can be used to predict population phenotypes, delineate seed zones and deployment zones, and guide assisted migration.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Collective behavior of “flexicles”

In recent years the functionality of synthetic active microparticles has edged even closer to that of their biological counterparts. However, we still lack the understanding needed to recreate at the microscale key features of autonomous behavior exhibited by microorganisms or swarms of macroscopic robots. In this study, we propose a model for a three-dimensional deformable cellular composite particle consisting of self-propelled rod-shaped colloids confined within a flexible vesicle—representing a superstructure we call a “flexicle” that couples particle deformation to the internal dynamics of the internal active components. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we investigate the collective behavior of dense systems composed of many flexicles. We show that individual flexicles exhibit shape changes upon collisions with other flexicles that lead to rearrangements of the internal active rods, which slows flexicle motion. This shape deformability gives rise to a diverse set of motility-induced phase separation phenomena and the spontaneous flow of flexicles reminiscent of the migration of cells in dense tissues. Our findings establish a foundation for designing responsive, cell-like active particles and developing strategies for controlling swarm migration and other autonomous swarm behaviors at cellular and colloidal scales.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing the formation of ionic defects to study the ice Ih/XI transition with molecular dynamics simulations

Ice Ih, the common form of ice in the biosphere, contains proton disorder. Its proton-ordered counterpart, ice XI, is thermodynamically stable below 72 K. However, the formation of ice XI is kinetically hindered, and experimentally it is obtained by doping with KOH. Doping creates ionic defects that promote the migration of protons and the associated change in proton configuration. In this article, we mimic the effect of doping with a bias potential that enhances the formation of ionic defects in molecular dynamics simulations. The recombination of the ions thus formed proceeds through fast migration of the hydroxide along hydrogen bond loops, providing a physical and expedite way to change the proton configuration. Here, a key ingredient of this approach is a machine learning potential trained with density functional theory data and capable of modelling molecular dissociation. We exemplify the usefulness of this idea by studying the order-disorder transition using an appropriate order parameter that distinguishes the proton environments in ice Ih and XI. We calculate the changes in free energy, enthalpy, and entropy associated with the transition. Our estimated entropy agrees with experiment within the error bars of the calculation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

A porcine ligated loop model reveals new insight into the host immune response against Campylobacter jejuni

The symptoms of infectious diarrheal disease are mediated by a combination of a pathogen’s virulence factors and the host immune system. Campylobacter jejuni is the leading bacterial cause of diarrhea worldwide due to its near-ubiquitous zoonotic association with poultry. One of the outstanding questions is to what extent the bacteria are responsible for the diarrheal symptoms via intestinal cell necrosis versus immune cell initiated tissue damage. To determine the stepwise process of inflammation that leads to diarrhea, we used a piglet ligated intestinal loop model to study the intestinal response to C. jejuni. Pigs were chosen due to the anatomical similarity between the porcine and the human intestine. We found that the abundance of neutrophil related proteins increased in the intestinal lumen during C. jejuni infection, including proteins related to neutrophil migration (neutrophil elastase and MMP9), actin reorganization (Arp2/3), and antimicrobial proteins (lipocalin-2, myeloperoxidase, S100A8, and S100A9). The appearance of neutrophil proteins also corresponded with increases of the inflammatory cytokines IL-8 and TNF-a. Compared to infection with the C. jejuni wild-type strain, infection with the noninvasive C. jejuni ?ciaD mutant resulted in a blunted inflammatory response, with less inflammatory cytokines and neutrophil markers. These findings indicate that intestinal inflammation is driven by C. jejuni virulence and that neutrophils are the predominant cell type responding to C. jejuni infection. We propose that this model can be used as a platform to study the early immune events during infection with intestinal pathogens.

disease model, INNATE IMMUNITY, proteomics, intest↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient and generalizable nested Fourier-DeepONet for three-dimensional geological carbon sequestration

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) involves injecting CO2 into subsurface geological formationsfor permanent storage. Numerical simulations could guide decisions in GCS projects by predictingCO 2 migration pathways and the pressure distribution in storage formation. However, these simula-tions are often computationally expensive due to highly coupled physics and large spatial-temporalsimulation domains. Surrogate modelling with data-driven machine learning has become a promis-ing alternative to accelerate physics-based simulations. Among these, the Fourier neural operator(FNO) has been applied to three-dimensional synthetic subsurface models. Despite its good accuracyin simulating CO 2 plume migration, it requires large computational resources in training and alsolacks generalizability. Here, to further improve performance, we have developed a nested Fourier-DeepONet by combining the expressiveness of the FNO with the modularity of a deep operatornetwork (DeepONet). This new framework is twice as efficient as a nested FNO for training and has atleast 80% lower GPU memory requirement due to its flexibility to treat temporal coordinates sepa-rately. These performance improvements are achieved without compromising prediction accuracy.In addition, the generalization and extrapolation ability of nested Fourier-DeepONet beyond thetraining range has been thoroughly evaluated. Nested Fourier-DeepONet outperformed the nestedFNO for extrapolation in time with more than 50% reduced error. It also exhibited good extrapolationaccuracy beyond the training range in terms of reservoir properties, number of wells, and injectionrate.

Lee, Jonathan E. [Department of Chemical and Envir↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrically-driven IMT and volatile memristor behavior in NdNiO 3 films

Abstract Transition metal oxides with insulator-metal transitions (IMTs) are uniquely suited for volatile memristor devices that mimic the spiking of biological neurons. Unlike most non-volatile memristors, which often operate via ion migration into filaments, volatile devices utilize a reversible phase change that returns to a ground state in the absence of applied stimulus. In these devices, Joule heating triggers the IMT and changes the bulk resistivity rather than influencing conduction through defects, as in previous studies. This volatile resistive switching behavior has previous been leveraged in niobium and vanadium oxides, but not in rare-earth nickelates, despite their tunable transition temperatures. This study demonstrates an electrically driven IMT in the prototypical rare-earth nickelate, NdNiO 3 , in large area devices. While previous work examining the electrically-driven IMT in NdNiO 3 suggests defect-dominated conduction, this study shows clear s-type negative differential resistance (NDR) consistent with temperature-dependent resistivity measurements. The NDR peak-to-valley voltage scales linearly with temperature as expected for conductivity pathways dominated by bulk IMT behavior. Unlike other transition metal oxides, which are modeled using the insulator-metal phase fraction as the internal state variable, a thermoelectric model with temperature as the internal state variable is found to more accurately describe the current–voltage characteristic of NdNiO 3 volatile memristors. Overall, we report the synthesis, fabrication, and characterization of NdNiO 3 volatile memristors with resistivity dominated by bulk-like IMT behavior which is scalable and not dependent upon oxygen vacancy migration or defect mediated conduction pathways.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase-field modeling of stored-energy-driven grain growth with intra-granular variation in dislocation density

Abstract We present a phase-field (PF) model to simulate the microstructure evolution occurring in polycrystalline materials with a variation in the intra-granular dislocation density. The model accounts for two mechanisms that lead to the grain boundary migration: the driving force due to capillarity and that due to the stored energy arising from a spatially varying dislocation density. In addition to the order parameters that distinguish regions occupied by different grains, we introduce dislocation density fields that describe spatial variation of the dislocation density. We assume that the dislocation density decays as a function of the distance the grain boundary has migrated. To demonstrate and parameterize the model, we simulate microstructure evolution in two dimensions, for which the initial microstructure is based on real-time experimental data. Additionally, we applied the model to study the effect of a cyclic heat treatment (CHT) on the microstructure evolution. Specifically, we simulated stored-energy-driven grain growth during three thermal cycles, as well as grain growth without stored energy that serves as a baseline for comparison. We showed that the microstructure evolution proceeded much faster when the stored energy was considered. A non-self-similar evolution was observed in this case, while a nearly self-similar evolution was found when the microstructure evolution is driven solely by capillarity. These results suggest a possible mechanism for the initiation of abnormal grain growth during CHT. Finally, we demonstrate an integrated experimental-computational workflow that utilizes the experimental measurements to inform the PF model and its parameterization, which provides a foundation for the development of future simulation tools capable of quantitative prediction of microstructure evolution during non-isothermal heat treatment.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of ExB effects on tungsten re-deposition and transport in the DIII-D divertor

Mixed-material DIVIMP-WallDYN modelling, now incorporating ExB drifts, is presented that simultaneously reproduces tungsten (W) erosion and deposition patterns observed during the DIII-D Metal Rings Campaign, in which a toroidally symmetric set of W-coated tiles were installed in the carbon (C) DIII-D divertor. Since most reactor plasma facing component (PFC) designs call for mixed-material environments, including ITER’s W/Be enviroment, the divertor targets will quickly evolve into reconstitued surfaces of multiple elements. This work identifies controlling physics that affects material migration patterns in the divertor, which impact PFC lifetimes and impurity leakage from the divertor to the core. These simulations indicate that radial and poloidal ExB transport dominates over parallel force balance for high-Z impurities such as W in the divertor region of DIII-D. It is demonstrated that ExB drifts are required to reproduce the experimental observation of non-local W and C co-accumulation in a band ~7-9 cm outboard of the outer-strike-point (OSP) W source, for attached Lmode conditions in the unfavorable ion grad-B drift direction. In addition, W gross erosion is localized to the region outboard of the OSP, as the formation of C co-deposits suppresses W erosion at the strike point. Time-dependent simulations with scaled ExB impurity drifts (60% of the OEDGE-calculated drift velocity) and W re-erosion quantitatively reproduce these features, including depth-resolved W/C ratios, within a factor of 2 over ~115 seconds of accumulated plasma exposure. The location of co-deposition regions is shown to be well represented by an analytic leakage model, driven largely by poloidal ExB drifts. Qualitative agreement is also found between campaign-integrated W deposition measurements and simulations for the favorable ion grad-B drift direction, the standard mode of operation for most tokamaks. Furthermore, these results imply that a longterm inward radial migration of material from the outer divertor through the private flux region may occur in future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗