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At least 703 records · Page 39

Unbalanced Nested Random Effects Estimation of Variance Components

To investigate the contributing factors of variance in the measurement of an iodine 127 (127I) sample, we implement a nested random effects analysis of variance (ANOVA). Historically, the reported uncertainty on a measurement of 127I has been obtained by methods of forward uncertainty propagation because there is typically only one replicate of a given sample for which to estimate the uncertainty. When samples are processed there are several types of quality control (QC) standards analyzed along-side the unknown samples with two to five replicates for each. Assuming the variance observed in these replicate QC standards is representative of that of the unknown samples, we use these data in a nested random effects ANOVA to estimate the total uncertainty of a measurement. We demonstrate this approach with two sets of measurements from Idaho National Laboratory and compare the results with the forward uncertainty propagation approach. Variance component estimates for the coarsest level of the nesting structure were most imprecise because replicates were most limited at these levels. We find that the results largely agree between forward propagation and ANOVA, and the greatest contributors of variance are due to instrument variation and chemical processing, with human processing being among the smallest contributors. This analysis provides reassurance that the reported uncertainties using forward propagation are reasonable and the process is well controlled. We propose a future designed experiment to increase replicates at the coarsest level of the hierarchy to improve estimates of these variance components.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Update on the High Precision Titration Method for Uranium Assay Supported by NBL Program Office

The NBL Program Office (NBL PO) has coordinated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to implement the High Precision Titration (HPT) method for uranium assay measurements. The measurement method has been successfully developed and qualified, therefore ORNL has progressed to performing analyzes critical to the mission of the NBL PO. The HPT method is vital to producing the next generation of certified reference materials for uranium assay and isotopic abundance. The work described here focused on establishing traceability of the method to the NIST SRM 136 potassium dichromate series, and focused on investigating small differences between SRM 136e and 136f. The NBL PO evaluated the history of all of its primary uranium reference materials, including CRM 112A natural uranium metal, and worked with NIST in investigating the small differences in the dichromate SRM’s. ORNL performed comparative experiments on SRM 136e and 136f using CRM 112A. The results of the experiment will be presented here, along with NBL PO’s plans to re-evaluate the CRM 112A certified uncertainty to comply with JCGM 100, “Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement.”

Rogers, Kayron↗

The Evolution of the Galaxy Rest-Frame Ultraviolet Luminosity Function Over the First Two Billion Years

We present a robust measurement and analysis of the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) luminosity function at z = 4 to 8. We use deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging over the CANDELS/GOODS fields, the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and the Hubble Frontier Field deep parallel observations near the Abell 2744 and MACS J0416.1- 2403 clusters. The combination of these surveys provides an effective volume of 0.6-1.2 ×10(exp 6) Mpc(exp 3) over this epoch, allowing us to perform a robust search for bright (M(sub UV) less than −21) and faint (M(sub UV) = −18) galaxies. We select galaxies using a well-tested photometric redshift technique with careful screening of contaminants, finding a sample of 7446 galaxies at 3.5 less than z less than 8.5, with more than 1000 galaxies at z of approximately 6 - 8. We measure both a stepwise luminosity function for galaxies in our redshift samples, as well as a Schechter function, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to measure robust uncertainties. At the faint end our UV luminosity functions agree with previous studies, yet we find a higher abundance of UV-bright galaxies at z of greater than or equal to 6. Our bestfit value of the characteristic magnitude M* is consistent with −21 at z of greater than or equal to 5, different than that inferred based on previous trends at lower redshift. At z = 8, a single power-law provides an equally good fit to the UV luminosity function, while at z = 6 and 7, an exponential cutoff at the bright-end is moderately preferred. We compare our luminosity functions to semi-analytical models, and find that the lack of evolution in M* is consistent with models where the impact of dust attenuation on the bright-end of the luminosity function decreases at higher redshift, though a decreasing impact of feedback may also be possible. We measure the evolution of the cosmic star-formation rate (SFR) density by integrating our observed luminosity functions to M(sub UV) = −17, correcting for dust attenuation, and find that the SFR density declines proportionally to (1 + z)((exp −4.3)(+/-)(0.5)) at z greater than 4, consistent with observations at z greater than or equal to 9. Our observed luminosity functions are consistent with a reionization history that starts at redshift of approximately greater than 10, completes at z greater than 6, and reaches a midpoint (x(sub HII) = 0.5) at 6.7 less than z less than 9.4. Finally, using a constant cumulative number density selection and an empirically derived rising star-formation history, our observations predict that the abundance of bright z = 9 galaxies is likely higher than previous constraints, though consistent with recent estimates of bright z similar to 10 galaxies.

Galaxy↗

Probing Systematic Bias in Low-redshift Type Ia Supernova Measurements by Cross Analyzing Surface Brightness and Hubble Residuals

For low-redshift (z < 0.1) SN Ia samples used in several cosmological analyses over the past decade, we probe for systematic bias by looking for correlations between surface brightness (SB) measurements and Hubble residuals (HR). For 292 SNe Ia, we measure SB at the location of the SN Ia from publicly available Pan-STARRS (PS1) images. The Hubble residuals are from two recent measurements with low-z SNe Ia that overlap the PS1 footprint: (1) the DES 3 yr cosmology analysis, with 120 overlapping low-z SNe Ia from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics surveys and Carnegie Supernova Project, and (2) the PS1 single-telescope analysis, with 172 overlapping low-z SNe Ia from the Foundation Supernova Survey. This study is motivated by previous reports of anomalous inefficiencies and flux scatter for transients on bright galaxies. Here, we compare HR distributions of the bright and faint halves of the SB distribution: the mean HR values differ by ${\rm{\Delta }}\overline{\mathrm{HR}}$ = 0.031 ± 0.018, consistent with no difference at the 2σ level. We also perform a Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test for the bright and faint half HR distributions, and conclude that the two distributions are statistically consistent with a KS p-value of 0.07. However, if future studies with larger data sets find ${\rm{\Delta }}\overline{\mathrm{HR}}\sim 0.03$ with high significance, this difference would be a leading systematic uncertainty in measurements of the dark energy equation of state, w.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characterization of modeling and experimental data inconsistencies from burst testing for high-burnup commercial fuel rod applications

Fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal are some of the largest issues remaining in the nuclear industry before rod-average burnup can be increased beyond 62 GWd/tU. The issue is primarily related to the potential for fuel to be dispersed into the reactor primary system, which may increase public risk. One way to prevent dispersal is to avoid cladding burst. The objective of this work is to support the high burnup safety case by evaluating cladding burst under high-burnup, full-length fuel rods and to identify uncertainties that could improve model predictions. The results of this analysis will evaluate realistic, prototypic loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions; support future cladding burst test designs; and inform the development of mechanistic material models. Realistic high-burnup operating conditions were implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to simulate steady-state and LOCA transient fuel rod evolution to the point at which cladding burst occurred. Parametric studies are performed to assess code response to changes in rod internal pressures and heating rates. Results were compared with simulated LOCA experiments to identify inconsistencies between commercial fuel rod analysis and experimental validation. The representative full-length fuel rod LOCA simulation results did not agree with cladding burst tests. Cladding burst tests indicated burst occurring well below (100–150 °C) those calculated in the full-length fuel rod LOCA analysis. Further investigation indicated that the cladding burst tests do not appear to be representative for full-length fuel rods. The inconsistency investigated in this work showed that the differences between the BISON simulation and the experiment's cladding burst conditions arise from an incomplete characterization of the cladding surface temperature, detailed rodlet characterization, lack of cladding strain measurements, and uncertainty in the cladding creep and failure models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A new generation of uranium coincidence fast neutron collars for assay of LWR fresh fuel assemblies

The active uranium neutron coincidence collar provides a means of non-destructively assaying the fissile linear density of Light Water Reactor fresh fuel assemblies containing low enriched uranium. These neutron collars can operate in two modes: a thermal and a fast mode. In fast mode, a neutron collar has an added cadmium (Cd) liner in the sample cavity of the detector to reduce the impact of the burnable poison (thermal neutron absorber) on the detector signal (doubles). The main advantage for operating in fast mode is a detected signal that is less dependent of the burnable neutron poison content and thus less dependent on facility operator declarations. The drawback is that operating in fast mode requires a longer measurement time (~hour vs tens of minutes for thermal mode) to achieve the statistically needed precision in the measurements. The trend in the modern reactor fuel assemblies is moving to higher burnup by using higher initial enrichment and, consequently, a higher number of burnable poison rods to compensate the initial neutron reactivity. The increase of the burnable poison loading has motivated the development of a new generation of high efficiency fast neutron collars to allow practical measurements in-field by nuclear inspectors. This paper describes the development and performance evaluation of a new generation of neutron collars, for both boiling water reactor (BWR) and pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuels, jointly developed between the US Department of Energy, through Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Euratom Safeguards Directorate of the European Commission. In this work, we present here calibrations with reference fuel assemblies at Los Alamos National Laboratory as well as the results of in-field measurement campaigns in fuel fabrication plants with modern commercial fuel assemblies. The experimental results show that a typical PWR verification can be made in a total time of 30 min with an uncertainty in the measured mass of 2% at one standard deviation (1σ). A BWR verification can be made in 47 min with an uncertainty in the measured mass of 1.9% at 1σ, or a total time of 20 min with 1σ uncertainty in the measured mass of 2.5%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Hadron Polarimetry for the Electron-Ion Collider

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) will be the first collider to use both polarized electron beams and polarized proton and light ion beams. It will therefore offer unique opportunities to study the structure of nucleons and to answer fundamental questions in QCD. The uncertainties on the polarization measurement translate directly into the uncertainties of final physics observables. Hence, a precise measurement of the hadron beam polarization and a good control of systematic uncertainties are critical for the success of the spin program at the EIC. Contrary to the case of electron beam polarimetry, which uses physical processes derived from first principles that allow a high precision extraction of the electron beam polarization, for hadron beams no such process is available. The currently best used methods rely on the process of elastic scattering in the Coulomb-Nuclear Interference (CNI) region, for which there are only effective models available. The experience from RHIC, the only existing polarized proton collider, will be detailed and the challenges of the measurements at the EIC will be addressed. In particular, measurements of the present RHIC polarimeters and simulations of the future EIC polarimeters will be presented.

Nunes, Ana Sofia↗

CHARGED-CURRENT DOUBLE-DIFFERENTIAL CROSS SECTION MEASUREMENT OF ELECTRON NEUTRINOS IN LOW RECOIL REGION ON HYDROCARBON AT ∼7 GEV

Measuring neutrino mixing angles, especially the CP violation phase and mass hierarchy, is one of the priorities of the neutrino community and long baseline neutrino oscillation programs, such as T2K and NOvA, provided the most precise measurements to date. One of the dominating uncertainties of the measurements is the neutrino interaction model due to the difficulty of modeling the nuclear effects from first principles. As a result, neutrino scattering experiments such as MINERvA were conducted to provide data as input to reduce this uncertainty. This thesis presents a charged-current double-differential cross section measurement of electron neutrinos using the MINERvA detector in terms of available energy (a proxy of energy transfer), three-momentum transfer, and/or transverse momentum of the final state electron. This measurement focuses on the transition region between quasi-elastic and resonance processes, where the multi-nucleon knockout process dominates. The result is compared to a modified GENIE model and similar measurements using muon neutrino samples. In addition, this measurement reproduces the photon-like excess seen by previous MINERvA electron neutrino measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Reactivity Coefficient Measurements to Aid in Reducing Compensating Errors in Plutonium Nuclear Data

Compensating errors between several nuclear data observables in a nuclear data library can adversely impact application simulations. The primary goal of the EUCLID project (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) is to reduce compensating errors between fast (0.1–5 MeV) 239Pu nuclear data for prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS), average prompt fission neutron multiplicities, and neutron induced fission, capture, elastic, and inelastic cross sections. This work will focus on the design and execution of void reactivity coefficient measurements in the EUCLID experiment, performed on the Planet vertical lift critical assembly machine at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). Two different base configurations were designed and measured, one with high neutron leakage, and one with low neutron leakage. Both were primarily made up of plutonium metal (Zero Power Physics Reactor plates) without interstitial moderators and reflected by half-inch aluminum. Design optimization showed that void reactivity coefficient measurements in three locations per configuration was most impactful to reduce nuclear data uncertainties due to the varying impacts from elastic and inelastic scattering, as well as fission and capture. The locations for measurements were chosen based on preliminary studies which balanced measurement uncertainty and measurement practicality. The measurements were also selected to have sensitivities maximally complementary to previous arrangements. Comparisons across nuclear data libraries highlight the potential impact.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The soil health assessment protocol and evaluation applied to soil organic carbon

The concept of soil health has evolved over the past several decades, recognizing that dynamic soil property response to management and land use is highly dependent on site-specific factors that must be considered when interpreting soil health measurements. Initially, the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF) and Comprehensive Assessment of Soil Health (CASH) were developed and used globally for scoring soil health indicators. However, both SMAF and CASH frameworks were developed using a relatively small dataset and their interpretation curves were not validated at the nationwide scale. Expanding upon these concepts, we propose the Soil Health Assessment Protocol and Evaluation (SHAPE) tool. The SHAPE was developed using 14,680 soil organic C (SOC) observations from across the United States, and accounts for edaphic and climate factors at the continental scale. Data were compiled from the literature, the Cornell Soil Health Laboratory, and the Kellogg Soil Survey Laboratory. In this approach, scoring curves are Bayesian model-based estimates of the conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) for defined soil peer groups reflecting five soil texture and five soil suborder classes adjusted for mean annual temperature and precipitation. Specifically, SHAPE produces scores between 0 and 1 (0–100%) for measured SOC values that reflect the quantile or position within the conditional CDF along with measures of uncertainty. Herein, we focus on development of the SHAPE scoring curve for SOC with our case studies. SHAPE is a flexible, quantitative tool that provides a regionally relevant interpretation of this key soil health indicator.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative Analysis of Imaging and Measurements of Micrometer-Scale Fracture Aperture Fields Within a Heterogeneous Rock Using PET and X-ray CT

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of fracture apertures is essential for reliable characterization of flow and transport processes in fractured systems and for better understanding of physicochemical matrix–fracture interactions. Here, we propose and test two image-based methods, thereby extending the current experimental capabilities to characterize aperture size distribution in structurally heterogeneous geologic porous media noninvasively. The first approach utilizes an inversion method based on the dataset acquired from positron emission tomography (PET) and the second approach considers an extension of the classic missing attenuation technique that relies on clinical X-ray computed tomography (X-ray CT). Independent sets of imaging experiments are conducted on a fractured basalt core with heterogeneous matrix properties and aperture distributions to compare the two methodologies. A repeat of each experiment is conducted to verify the proposed workflows. The performance of these two imaging techniques is systematically evaluated through the analysis of signal-to-noise ratio, minimum fracture size detectability, and measurement errors. While both approaches provide a reliable estimation of fracture aperture distributions, PET yields a signal-to-noise ratio that is substantially higher than the corresponding X-ray CT measurements. Furthermore, uncertainties of the aperture values for PET are considerably lower ($\bar {\sigma}_{\text {d}} = 15\%$) compared to those obtained from X-ray CT ($\bar {\sigma}_{\text {d}} = 29\%$), allowing for the detection of minimum aperture sizes of 20 $\mu$m with 70% confidence level. Finally, these approaches provide key experimental tools for better understanding dynamic hydromechanical fracture properties in geologic systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring density and strength variations in asteroid 16 Psyche’s composition with 3D hydrocode modeling of its deepest impact structure

Asteroid 16 Psyche is the largest metallic Main Belt Asteroid and is the subject of a forthcoming NASA mission. The composition of Psyche is still unknown and subject of recent debate. In particular, how much porosity is within Psyche, along with how much of Psyche consists of non-metallic versus metallic materials, are central questions to the issue of Psyche’s composition. If Psyche is indeed predominantly composed of metallic materials, it would need to have considerable porosity (~ 30%–50%) for a composition consistent with its expected bulk density (~ 3.7–4.1 g/cm). In this work, we vary the density and strength of Psyche by including uniform and layered fields of pseudo-microporosity, in addition to investigating the presence of macroscopic voids, i.e., spaces larger than the size of the simulation’s mesh cells, in rubble-pile configurations. Further, all configurations result in bulk densities within the uncertainties of measured values, however the strength of Psyche and the distribution of pseudo-pores are varied. Through 3D computational models of Psyche’s deepest impact structure, we show that Psyche’s composition is unlikely to contain only pseudo-microporosity. Rather, rubble pile structures, which include macroscopic voids, are shown to match the crater’s measured aspect ratio better than simulations of structures that included only pseudo-microporosity.

3D↗

Seismic monitoring of a small CO 2 injection using a multi-well DAS array: Operations and initial results of Stage 3 of the CO 2 CRC Otway project

Active time-lapse seismic is widely employed for monitoring CO 2 geosequestration due to its ability to track the distribution of fluids in space and time. However, standard 4D seismic monitoring suffers from several challenges, including high cost, disruption to other land uses, and, consequently, relatively large intervals between monitor surveys. Some of these challenges can be mitigated using permanently installed sources and receivers. Such an approach was tested at the CO 2 CRC Otway site by continuous offset VSP monitoring of 15,000 t of supercritical CO 2 injected into an aquifer 1,500 m deep with nine permanent seismic sources (surface orbital vibrators or SOVs) and five downhole fibre-optic receivers. This continuous monitoring is complemented by multi-well 4D VSP using a mobile vibroseis source and the same DAS receivers, which included one baseline and two monitor surveys after injection of 4,000 and 12,000 t of CO 2 . The continuous DAS-SOV monitoring detected an abrupt increase of travel times below the injection interval on the second day of injection (after injection of 300 t of CO 2 ) and tracked the growth of the areal CO 2 plume by mapping changes of reflection amplitudes. The plume is also detected by time-lapse changes of reflection amplitudes in multi-well 4D VSPs. The plume images obtained from continuous offset VSP and 4D VSP are broadly consistent with each other but with some differences due to differences in illumination, lateral variations of velocities and seismic anisotropy. Furthermore, these differences also serve as a measure of uncertainty of 4D VSP images.

4D VSP↗

Melt pool temperature measurement and monitoring during laser powder bed fusion based additive manufacturing via single-camera two-wavelength imaging pyrometry (STWIP)

Melt pool (MP) temperature is one of the determining factors and a key signature for evaluating the properties of printed components in metal additive manufacturing (AM). The state-of-the-art measurement systems are hindered, primarily by the large-scale data acquisition and processing demands. In this work, we introduce a novel coaxial, high-speed, single-camera two-wavelength imaging pyrometer (STWIP) system as opposed to the typical utilization of multiple cameras for measuring MP temperature profiles in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) processes. Developed on a commercial LPBF machine (EOS M290), the STWIP system demonstrated its ability to quantitatively monitor the MP temperature and its variation for 50 layers at high framerates (>30,000 fps) for a real-world application (standard fatigue specimens) print. High performance computing is employed to analyze the acquired big data (MP images), for determining each MP's average temperature and 2D temperature profile. The MP temperature evolution in the gage section of a fatigue specimen is also examined at a temporal resolution of 1 ms, by evaluating the MP temperatures in the samples' first, middle, and last layers. This report is the first of its kind on monitoring MP temperature distribution and evolution at such a large, detailed scale for longer durations in practical applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Raman and infrared spectra of plutonium (IV) oxalate and its thermal degradation products

For over 80 years, plutonium dioxide has been routinely produced via thermal decomposition of hydrated plutonium(IV) oxalate. Despite the longstanding utility of this process, the chemical structures of starting materials and intermediates produced during this thermal conversion remain ill-defined. To help resolve this uncertainty, we measured high-resolution Raman and infrared spectra of Pu(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O that was heated to 25, 100, 220, 250, 350, and 450 °C in air. Our measurements show that Pu(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O has a rich vibrational spectrum with at least 15 Raman bands between 180 cm -1 and 1900 cm -1 and 9 infrared bands between 800 cm -1 and 4000 cm -1 . As Pu(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O is heated, water is liberated, and the oxalate ligand decomposes to produce plutonium oxycarbide species. When heated to 350 °C or higher, vibrational spectra are consistent with PuO 2 with some residual carbon-containing species. Full vibrational spectra, powder X-ray diffraction, and scanning electron microscopy measurements of Pu(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O and its thermal degradation products are presented herein along with approximate assignments for observed spectral bands. These data can be used to validate and potentially improve existing computational models that describe the chemical structure of compounds produced during thermal degradation of plutonium (IV) oxalate. Given the utility of plutonium (IV) oxalate in synthesizing plutonium dioxide, these results are expected to provide value in the fields of nuclear fuel processing, nuclear nonproliferation, and nuclear forensics.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Coherent J/ψ photoproduction at midrapidity in Pb – Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The coherent J∕𝜓 photoproduction cross section is measured for the first time at midrapidity in peripheral to semicentral P b − P b collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The centrality differential cross section d 𝜎 ∕d𝑦 is reported for the centrality range 40–90%, together with the doubly-differential cross section d 2 𝜎∕d𝑦d𝑝 T , extracted in two peripheral centrality classes. The J∕𝜓 mesons are reconstructed in the dielectron channel, in the rapidity interval |𝑦| < 0.9 using the ALICE central barrel detectors. The J∕𝜓 cross section at midrapidity is statistically compatible to the earlier ALICE measurement at forward rapidity and at the same centre-of-mass energy, and shows only a mild centrality dependence over the covered range. Several sets of theoretical calculations taking into account the hadronic overlap in the collisions but ignoring possible final-state effects from a hot expanding medium are found to give a fairly good description of the current measurements within uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Integrated flux and pool size analysis in plant central metabolism reveals unique roles of glycine and serine during photorespiration

Photorespiration is an essential process juxtaposed between plant carbon and nitrogen metabolism that responds to dynamic environments. Photorespiration recycles inhibitory intermediates arising from oxygenation reactions catalysed by Rubisco back into the C 3 cycle, but it is unclear what proportions of its nitrogen-containing intermediates (glycine and serine) are exported into other metabolisms in vivo and how these pool sizes affect net CO 2 gas exchange during photorespiratory transients. Here, to address this uncertainty, we measured rates of amino acid export from photorespiration using isotopically non-stationary metabolic flux analysis. This analysis revealed that ~23–41% of the photorespiratory carbon was exported from the pathway as serine under various photorespiratory conditions. Furthermore, we determined that the build-up and relaxation of glycine pools constrained a large portion of photosynthetic acclimation during photorespiratory transients. Furthermore, these results reveal the unique and important roles of glycine and serine in successfully maintaining various photorespiratory fluxes that occur under environmental fluctuations in nature and providing carbon and nitrogen for metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of multipacting threshold sensitivity to the random distributions of the secondary electron yield parameters

The way multipacting develops, depends strongly on the secondary emission property of the surface material. The knowledge of secondary electron yield is crucial for accurate prediction of the multipacting threshold. Variations in secondary electron yield parameters from experimental measurements create uncertainty, stemming from handling and surface preparation, and these uncertainties significantly affect multipacting threshold predictions. Despite their significance, the previous studies on the multipacting phenomenon did not adequately address the effect of an assumed random distribution of the secondary emission parameters on the multipacting threshold. Therefore, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive statistical study on how the different random distributions of the secondary emission parameters and, as a result, the uncertainty in the secondary electron yield affect multipacting thresholds. We focus on three commonly used distributions, namely uniform, normal, and truncated normal distributions, to define the uncertainty of random inputs. We use the chaos polynomial expansion method to determine how much each of the random parameters contributes to the multipacting threshold uncertainty. Additionally, we calculate Sobol sensitivity indices to evaluate the impact of the individual parameters or groups of parameters on the model outputs and study how different random distributions of these parameters affected the Sobol index results.

physics↗