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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Very High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer: Outcomes Following Definitive Radiation

Purpose: Existing definitions of high-risk prostate cancer consist of men who experience significant heterogeneity in outcomes. As such, criteria that identify a subpopulation of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk prostate cancer patients who are at very high risk (VHR) for poor survival outcomes following prostatectomy were recently developed at our institution and include the presence of any of the following disease characteristics: multiple NCCN high-risk factors, primary Gleason pattern 5 disease and/or ≥5 biopsy cores with Gleason sums of 8 to 10. Whether these criteria also apply to men undergoing definitive radiation is unclear, as is the optimal treatment regimen in these patients. Methods and Materials: All men consecutively treated with definitive radiation by a single provider from 1993 to 2006 and who fulfilled criteria for NCCN high-risk disease were identified (n=288), including 99 patients (34%) with VHR disease. Multivariate-adjusted competing risk regression models were constructed to assess associations between the VHR definition and biochemical failure (BF), distant metastasis (DM), and prostate cancer–specific mortality (PCSM). Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis assessed the association of the VHR definition with overall mortality (OM). Cumulative incidences of failure endpoints were compared between VHR men and other NCCN high-risk men. Results: Men with VHR disease compared to other NCCN high-risk men experienced a higher 10-year incidence of BF (54.0% vs 35.4%, respectively, P<.001), DM (34.9% vs 13.4%, respectively, P<.001), PCSM (18.5% vs 5.9%, respectively, P<.001), and OM (36.4% vs 27.0%, respectively, P=.04). VHR men with a detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration at the end of radiation (EOR) remained at high risk of 10-year PCSM compared to VHR men with an undetectable EOR PSA (31.0% vs 13.7%, respectively, P=.05). Conclusions: NCCN high-risk prostate cancer patients who meet VHR criteria experience distinctly worse outcomes following definitive radiation and long-term androgen deprivation therapy, particularly if an EOR PSA is detectable. Optimal use of local therapies for VHR patients should be explored further, as should novel agents.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modern Radiation Therapy and Cardiac Outcomes in Breast Cancer

Purpose: Adjuvant radiation therapy, which has proven benefit against breast cancer, has historically been associated with an increased incidence of ischemic heart disease. Modern techniques have reduced this risk, but a detailed evaluation has not recently been conducted. The present study evaluated the effect of current radiation practices on ischemia-related cardiac events and procedures in a population-based study of older women with nonmetastatic breast cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 29,102 patients diagnosed from 2000 to 2009 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results–Medicare database. Medicare claims were used to identify the radiation therapy and cardiac outcomes. Competing risk models were used to assess the effect of radiation on these outcomes. Results: Patients with left-sided breast cancer had a small increase in their risk of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) after radiation therapy—the 10-year cumulative incidence for these patients was 5.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.9%-6.2%) and 4.5% (95% CI 4.0%-5.0%) for right-sided patients. This risk was limited to women with previous cardiac disease. For patients who underwent PCI, those with left-sided breast cancer had a significantly increased risk of cardiac mortality with a subdistribution hazard ratio of 2.02 (95% CI 1.23-3.34). No other outcome, including cardiac mortality for the entire cohort, showed a significant relationship with tumor laterality. Conclusions: For women with a history of cardiac disease, those with left-sided breast cancer who underwent radiation therapy had increased rates of PCI and a survival decrement if treated with PCI. The results of the present study could help cardiologists and radiation oncologists better stratify patients who need more aggressive cardioprotective techniques.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

National Trends and Predictors of Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in Low-Risk Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is not recommended for low-risk prostate cancer because of its lack of benefit and potential for harm. We evaluated the incidence and predictors of ADT use in low-risk disease. Methods and Materials: Using the National Cancer Database, we identified 197,957 patients with low-risk prostate cancer (Gleason score of 3 + 3 = 6, prostate-specific antigen level <10 ng/mL, and cT1-T2a) diagnosed from 2004 to 2012 with complete demographic and treatment information. We used multiple logistic regression to evaluate predictors of ADT use and Cox regression to examine its association with all-cause mortality. Results: Overall ADT use decreased from 17.6% in 2004 to 3.5% in 2012. In 2012, 11.5% of low-risk brachytherapy patients and 7.6% of external beam radiation therapy patients received ADT. Among 82,352 irradiation-managed patients, predictors of ADT use included treatment in a community versus academic cancer program (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50-1.71; P<.001; incidence, 14.0% vs 6.0% in 2012); treatment in the South (AOR, 1.51), Midwest (AOR, 1.81), or Northeast (AOR, 1.90) versus West (P<.001); and brachytherapy use versus external beam radiation therapy (AOR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.27-1.37; P<.001). Among 25,196 patients who did not receive local therapy, predictors of primary ADT use included a Charlson-Deyo comorbidity score of ≥2 versus 0 (AOR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.06-1.91; P=.018); treatment in a community versus academic cancer program (AOR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.37-1.90; P<.001); and treatment in the South (AOR, 1.26), Midwest (AOR, 1.52), or Northeast (AOR, 1.28) versus West (P≤.008). Primary ADT use was associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients who did not receive local therapy (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.14-1.43; P<.001) after adjustment for age and comorbidity. Conclusions: ADT use in low-risk prostate cancer has declined nationally but may remain an issue of concern in certain populations and regions.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Flexible, cluster-based analysis of the electronic medical record of sepsis with composite mixture models

The widespread adoption of electronic medical records (EMRs) in healthcare has provided vast new amounts of data for statistical machine learning researchers in their efforts to model and predict patient health status, potentially enabling novel advances in treatment. In the case of sepsis, a debilitating, dysregulated host response to infection, extracting subtle, uncataloged clinical phenotypes from the EMR with statistical machine learning methods has the potential to impact patient diagnosis and treatment early in the course of their hospitalization. However, there are significant barriers that must be overcome to extract these insights from EMR data. First, EMR datasets consist of both static and dynamic observations of discrete and continuous-valued variables, many of which may be missing, precluding the application of standard multivariate analysis techniques. Second, clinical populations observed via EMRs and relevant to the study and management of conditions like sepsis are often heterogeneous; properly accounting for this heterogeneity is critical. Here, we describe an unsupervised, probabilistic framework called a composite mixture model that can simultaneously accommodate the wide variety of observations frequently observed in EMR datasets, characterize heterogeneous clinical populations, and handle missing observations. In conclusion, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on a large-scale sepsis cohort, developing novel techniques built on our model-based clusters to track patient mortality risk over time and identify physiological trends and distinct subgroups of the dataset associated with elevated risk of mortality during hospitalization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Regional Cardiac Sympathetic Nervous System Evaluation Using 123I-mIBG SPECT in Patients with Heart Failure

Heart failure (HF) involves both mechanical and autonomic nervous system dysfunction that can lead to sudden cardiac death. In the failing human heart, there is increased release of norepinephrine from neurons and reduced uptake. Iodine-123–labeled metaiodobenzylguanidine (123I-mIBG) demonstrates reduced global uptake and increased washout associated with increased mortality in HF. This research examined the potential benefits of single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) regional quantitation in risk stratification of HF patients and its role in prediction of cardiac morbidity and mortality.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Roadmap to control HBV and HDV epidemics in China

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is endemic in China. Almost 10% of HBV infected individuals are also infected with hepatitis D virus (HDV) which has a 5–10 times higher mortality rate than HBV mono-infection. The aim of this manuscript is to devise strategies that can not only control HBV infections but also HDV infections in China under the current health care budget in an optimal manner. Furthermore, using a mathematical model, an annual budget of 10 billion dollars was optimally allocated among five interventions namely, testing and HBV adult vaccination, treatment for mono-infected and dually-infected individuals, second line treatment for HBV mono-infections, and awareness programs. As a result, we determine that the optimal strategy is to test and treat both infections as early as possible while applying awareness programs at full intensity. Under this strategy, an additional 19.8 million HBV, 1.9 million HDV infections and 0.25 million lives will be saved over the next 10 years at a cost-savings of 79 billion dollars than performing no intervention. Introduction of second line treatment does not add a significant economic burden yet prevents 1.4 million new HBV infections and 15,000 new HDV infections. In conclusion, test and treatment programs are highly efficient in reducing HBV and HDV prevalence in the population. Under the current health budget in China, not only test and treat programs but awareness programs and second line treatment can also be implemented that minimizes prevalence and mortality, and maximizes economic benefits.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bark beetle impacts on forest evapotranspiration and its partitioning

Insect outbreaks affect forest structure and function and represent a major category of forest disturbance globally. However, the resulting impacts on evapotranspiration (ET), and especially hydrological partitioning between the abiotic (evaporation) and biotic (transpiration) components of total ET, are not well constrained. As a result, we combined remote sensing, eddy covariance, and hydrological modeling approaches to determine the effects of bark beetle outbreak on ET and its partitioning at multiple scales throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain Ecoregion (SRME), USA. At the eddy covariance measurement scale, 85 % of the forest was affected by beetles, and water year ET as a fraction of precipitation (P) decreased by 30 % relative to a control site, with 31 % greater reductions in growing season transpiration relative to total ET. At the ecoregion scale, satellite remote sensing masked to areas of >80 % tree mortality showed corresponding ET/P reductions of 9–15 % that occurred 6–8 years post-disturbance, and indicated that the majority of the total reduction occurred during the growing season; the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model showed an associated 9–18 % increase in the ecoregion runoff ratio. Long-term (16–18 year) ET and vegetation mortality datasets extend the length of previously published analyses and allowed for clear characterization of the forest recovery period. During that time, transpiration recovery outpaced total ET recovery, which was lagged in part due to persistently reduced winter sublimation, and there was associated evidence of increasing late summer vegetation moisture stress. Overall, comparison of three independent methods and two partitioning approaches demonstrated a net negative impact of bark beetles on ET, and a relatively greater negative impact on transpiration, following bark beetle outbreak in the SRME.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Differential cardiotoxicity in response to chronic doxorubicin treatment in male spontaneous hypertension-heart failure (SHHF), spontaneously hypertensive (SHR), and Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats

Life threatening complications from chemotherapy occur frequently in cancer survivors, however little is known about genetic risk factors. We treated male normotensive rats (WKY) and strains with hypertension (SHR) and hypertension with cardiomyopathy (SHHF) with 8 weekly doses of doxorubicin (DOX) followed by 12 weeks of observation to test the hypothesis that genetic cardiovascular disease would worsen delayed cardiotoxicity. Compared with WKY, SHR demonstrated weight loss, decreased systolic blood pressure, increased kidney weights, greater cardiac and renal histopathologic lesions and greater mortality. SHHF showed growth restriction, increased kidney weights and renal histopathology but no effect on systolic blood pressure or mortality. SHHF had less severe cardiac lesions than SHR. We evaluated cardiac soluble epoxide hydrolase (sEH) content and arachidonic acid metabolites after acute DOX exposure as potential mediators of genetic risk. Before DOX, SHHF and SHR had significantly greater cardiac sEH and decreased epoxyeicosatrienoic acid (EET) (4 of 4 isomers in SHHF and 2 of 4 isomers in SHR) than WKY. After DOX, sEH was unchanged in all strains, but SHHF and SHR rats increased EETs to a level similar to WKY. Leukotriene D4 increased after treatment in SHR. Genetic predisposition to heart failure superimposed on genetic hypertension failed to generate greater toxicity compared with hypertension alone. The relative resistance of DOX-treated SHHF males to the cardiotoxic effects of DOX in the delayed phase despite progression of genetic disease was unexpected and a key finding. Strain differences in arachidonic acid metabolism may contribute to variation in response to DOX toxicity. - Highlights: • Late doxorubicin toxicity evaluated in normal, hypertensive, and cardiomyopathic rats. • Hypertension enhances the delayed toxicity of doxorubicin. • Genetic predisposition to cardiomyopathy did not further enhance toxicity. • Epoxyeicosatrienoic acids increased in response to doxorubicin in SHR and SHHF. • Altered leukotriene metabolism may contribute greater toxicity in SHR vs. SHHF rats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Loss of Nrf2 promotes rapid progression to heart failure following myocardial infarction

Nrf2 gene encodes a transcription factor regulating the expression of antioxidant and detoxification genes. We test here whether Nrf2 plays a role for cardiac protection during ischemic injury in an effort to establish Nrf2 as a target for cardiac protection therapies. Cardiac ischemia induced by the left anterior descending (LAD) coronary artery ligation results in myocardial infarction (MI). Young mice surviving MI show minimal signs of heart failure. Mice lacking Nrf2 experience an accelerated progression to heart failure that occurs within 10 days following induction of MI. Nrf2 knockout (Nrf2 KO) mice have a survival rate similar to wild type (WT) mice at 24 h after MI, but a significantly higher mortality rate within 10 days after MI (50% vs 86%). Morphological examination revealed maladaptive remodeling, including cardiac hypertrophy and dilated left ventricle in Nrf2 KO mice, which were absent in WT mice. Measurements of cardiac function revealed increased left ventricular mass and decreases in cardiac output in Nrf2 KO mice. In addition, Nrf2 KO mice show biomarkers of heart failure, such as elevated levels of β-MHC, ANF, and BNP mRNA in the myocardium. These data support that Nrf2 plays an important role in protecting the myocardium from ischemic injury. Lack of Nrf2 leads to rapid development of heart failure. - Highlights: • We test whether Nrf2 serves to protect the heart from ischemic injury. • Nrf2 knockout mice have increased mortality following myocardial ischemia. • Heart failure develops in 10 days following myocardial ischemia due to Nrf2 knockout.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Zingerone reduces HMGB1-mediated septic responses and improves survival in septic mice

High mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) is considered a late mediator of sepsis and the inhibition of HMGB1-mediated severe inflammatory responses and restoration of endothelial integrity have emerged as attractive therapeutic strategies for the management of sepsis. Zingerone (ZGR), a phenolic alkanone isolated from ginger, has been reported to possess various pharmacological activities. We examined the effects of ZGR on HMGB1-mediated septic responses and survival rate in a mouse model of sepsis. ZGR was administered after HMGB1 challenge. The antiseptic activity of ZGR was determined from the measurements of permeability, leukocyte adhesion and migration, activation of pro-inflammatory proteins, and the production of tissue injury markers in HMGB1-activated HUVECs and mice. ZGR significantly reduced HMGB1 release in LPS-activated HUVECs via the SIRT1-mediated deacetylation of HMGB1. And, ZGR suppressed the production of TNF-α and IL-6 and the activation of NF-κB and ERK 1/2 by HMGB1. ZGR also inhibited HMGB1-mediated hyperpermeability and leukocyte migration in mice. In addition, treatment with ZGR reduced the CLP-induced release of HMGB1, sepsis-related mortality, and tissue injury in vivo. Our results indicated that ZGR might be useful in the treatment of sepsis by targeting HMGB1. - Highlights: • HMGB1 is considered a late mediator of sepsis. • Zingerone suppressed LPS-induced secretion of HMGB1 in vitro and in vivo. • Zingerone reduced HMGB1-mediated hyperpermeability in vitro and in vivo. • Zingerone inhibited HMGB1-mediated leukocytes adhesion and migration. • Zingerone reduced mortality and lung injury in mouse sepsis model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Temperature-Responsive Polymersomes of Poly(3-methyl- N -vinylcaprolactam)- block -poly( N -vinylpyrrolidone) To Decrease Doxorubicin-Induced Cardiotoxicity

Despite being one of the most potent chemotherapeutics, doxorubicin (DOX) facilitates cardiac toxicity by irreversibly damaging the cardiac muscle as well as severely dysregulating the immune system and impairing the resolution of cardiac inflammation. Herein, we report synthesis and aqueous self-assembly of nanosized polymersomes from temperature-responsive poly(3-methyl- N -vinylcaprolactam)- block -poly( N -vinylpyrrolidone) (PMVC-PVPON) diblock copolymers and demonstrate their potential to minimize DOX cardiotoxicity compared to liposomal DOX. RAFT polymerization of vinylpyrrolidone and 3-methyl- N -vinylcaprolactam, which are structurally similar monomers but have drastically different hydrophobicity, allows decreasing the cloud point of PMVCm-PVPON n copolymers below 20 °C. The lower critical solution temperature (LCST) of the PMVC 58 -PVPON n copolymer varied from 19.2 to 18.6 and to 15.2 °C by decreasing the length of the hydrophilic PVPON n block from n = 98 to n = 65 and to n = 20, respectively. The copolymers assembled into stable vesicles at room temperature when PVPON polymerization degrees were 65 and 98. Anticancer drug DOX was entrapped with high efficiency into the aqueous PMVC 58 -PVPON 65 polymersomal core surrounded by the hydrophobic temperature-sensitive PMVC shell and the hydrophilic PVPON corona. Unlike many liposomal, micellar, or synthetic drug delivery systems, these polymersomes exhibit an exceptionally high loading capacity of DOX (49%) and encapsulation efficiency (95%) due to spontaneous loading of the drug at room temperature from aqueous DOX solution. We also show that C57BL/6J mice injected with the lethal dose of DOX at 15 mg kg –1 did not survive the 14 day treatment, resulting in 100% mortality. The DOX-loaded PMVC 58 -PVPON 65 polymersomes did not cause any mortality in mice indicating that they can be used for successful DOX encapsulation. The gravimetric analyses of the animal organs from mice treated with liposome-encapsulated DOX (Lipo-DOX) and PMVC 58 -PVPON 65 polymersomes (Poly-DOX) revealed that the Lipo-DOX injection caused some toxicity manifesting as decreased body weight compared to Poly-DOX and saline control. Masses of the left ventricle of the heart, lung, and spleen reduced in the Lipo-DOX-treated mice compared to the nontoxic saline control, while no significant decrease of those masses was observed for the Poly-DOX-treated mice. Furthermore, our results provide evidence for superior stability of synthetic polymersomes in vivo and show promise for the development of next-generation drug carriers with minimal side effects.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Solar-Induced Fluorescence Detects Interannual Variation in Gross Primary Production of Coniferous Forests in the Western United States

Quantifying gross primary production (GPP), the largest flux of the terrestrial carbon cycle, remains difficult at the landscape scale. Evergreen needleleaf (coniferous) forests in the western United States constitute an important carbon reservoir whose annual GPP varies from year-to-year due to drought, mortality, and other ecosystem disturbances. Evergreen forest productivity is challenging to determine via traditional remote sensing indices (i.e., NDVI and EVI), because detecting environmental stress conditions is difficult. We investigated the utility of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to detect year-to-year variation in GPP in four coniferous forests varying in species composition in the western United States (Sierra Nevada, Cascade, and Rocky Mountains). We show that annually averaged, satellite-based observations of SIF (retrieved from GOME-2) were significantly correlated with annual GPP observed at eddy covariance towers over several years. Further, SIF responded quantitatively to drought-induced mortality, suggesting that SIF may be capable of detecting ecosystem disturbance in coniferous forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Drives Modeled Forest Carbon Cycling Resistance and Resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond (resistance) and recover from (resilience) to rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the ED-2.2 model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900, and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes, and interacted with one another. We then calculated metrics of functional ecosystem stability. Modeled gross primary production exhibited a mean resistance of -0.13, -0.23, and -0.42 (unitless) in response to increasing disturbance severity of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality, respectively; and resilience of 0.002, 0.004, 0.008 (yr-1) respectively. This pattern held true for other carbon fluxes, meaning that in general simulated GPP declined more initially but recovered more quickly from higher mortality. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large Divergence of Projected High Latitude Vegetation Composition and Productivity Due To Functional Trait Uncertainty

Abstract Vegetation distribution and composition are expected to change in northern high latitudes under rapid warming, which regulates ecosystem functions but remains challenging to predict. Vegetation change arises from the interplay of chronic climate trends such as warming and transient demographic processes of recruitment, growth, competition, and mortality. Most predictive models overlooked the role of demographic dynamics controlled by plant traits. Here, we simulate vegetation dynamics at the Kougarok Hillslope site in Alaska under historical and future climates using the E3SM Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator (ELM‐FATES). To evaluate the roles of plant traits, we parameterize the model with 5,265 trait configurations representing diverse physiological and demographic strategies. Results show current modeled biomass, composition, and productivity are most sensitive to traits controlling photosynthetic capacity, carbon allocation, allometry, and phenology. Among all trait configurations, ∼5% reproduce in situ biomass and plant functional type (PFT) composition measured in 2016, that are indistinguishable from these two observed ecosystem states. Notably, these same trait configurations produce diverging biomass, composition, and productivity under future climate, where the uncertainty attributable to traits is twice the change attributable to climate change. The variation of projected productivity arises from emerging PFT composition under novel climate regimes, primarily explained by traits controlling cold‐induced mortality, recruitment, and allometry. Our findings highlight the importance and uncertainty of demographic dynamics and its interaction with climate change in shaping Arctic vegetation change. Improved model predictions will likely benefit from explicit consideration of vegetation demography and better constraints of critical traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing Soil Microbial Dynamics and Organo‐Mineral Interactions in the E3SM Land Model (ELM‐ReSOM)

Explicit representation of soil microbial processes and interactions with biotic and abiotic processes in Earth System Models (ESMs) remains limited, despite their importance in biogeochemical cycles. To address this gap, which hinders prediction of global biogeochemial cycling and responses to atmospheric conditions, we integrated a microbe- and mineral-surface-explicit model, the Reaction-network-based model of soil organic matter and Microbes (ReSOM), into the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SM) land model (ELM). Here, we describe ELM-ReSOM and show a case study at a conifer forest in California. ELM-ReSOM accurately simulated surface CO 2 fluxes and SOM stocks, demonstrating improved representations of microbial and mineral interactions compared to the default ELM. We examined ELM-ReSOM sensitivity to microbial traits, enzyme properties, and organo-mineral interactions. Microbial traits such as the maximum mortality rate, transporter-density scaling factor, and maximum monomer assimilation rate were strong controllers of heterotrophic respiration, while these microbial traits and enzyme-related properties collectively influenced SOM stocks. Mineral surfaces primarily affected SOM stocks by adsorbing enzymes, thereby limiting depolymerization. Synergies among processes led to stronger impacts of parameters when evaluated together versus separately (i.e., most parameters had greater indirect than direct effects). For example, due to interactions of microbial necromass with mineral surface adsorption, the indirect effect of the maximum microbial mortality rate was 33% larger than its direct effect on SOM stock. Thus, microbial and enzyme dynamics and their interactions with mineral surfaces play critical roles in SOM cycling. Tackling the challenges of microbe-explicit models will advance understanding and modeling of SOM dynamics.

Tao, Jing [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO 2 and Temperature: A Process‐Based Approach

Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh-dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES-Hydro, we conducted 30-year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO 2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO 2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity- and submersion-driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non-water-limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. In conclusion, our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community-level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests.

Ding, Junyan [Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution6, 7, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region14, 19, 20, 21, 22. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions23, air quality14 and health24 have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.

Zhang, Qiang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Abstract Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗