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At least 703 records · Page 39

Large Contribution of Meteorological Factors to Inter-Decadal Changes in Regional Aerosol Optical Depth

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has become a crucial metric for assessing global climate change. Although global and regional AOD trends have been studied extensively, it remains unclear what factors are driving the inter-decadal variations in regional AOD and how to quantify the relative contribution of each dominant factor. This study used a long-term (1980–2016) aerosol dataset from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, along with two satellite-based AOD datasets (MODIS/Terra and MISR) from 2001 to 2016, to investigate the long-term trends in global and regional aerosol loading. Statistical models based on emission factors and meteorological parameters were developed to identify the main factors driving the inter-decadal changes of regional AOD and to quantify their contribution. Evaluation of the MERRA-2 AOD with the ground-based measurements of AERONET indicated significant spatial agreement on the global scale (r= 0.85, root-mean-square error = 0.12, mean fractional error = 38.7 %, fractional gross error = 9.86 % and index of agreement = 0.94). However, when AOD observations from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) were employed for independent verification, the results showed that MERRA-2 AODs generally underestimated CARSNET AODs in China (relative mean bias = 0.72 and fractional gross error =−34.3 %). In general, MERRA-2 was able to quantitatively reproduce the annual and seasonal AOD trends on both regional and global scales, as observed by MODIS/Terra, although some differences were found when compared to MISR. Over the 37-year period in this study, significant decreasing trends were observed over Europe and the eastern United States. In contrast, eastern China and southern Asia showed AOD increases, but the increasing trend of the former reversed sharply in the most recent decade. The statistical analyses suggested that the meteorological parameters explained a larger proportion of the AOD variability (20.4 %–72.8 %) over almost all regions of interest (ROIs) during 1980–2014 when compared with emission factors (0 %–56 %). Further analysis also showed that SO2 was the dominant emission factor, explaining 12.7 %–32.6 % of the variation in AOD over anthropogenic-aerosol-dominant regions, while black carbon or organic carbon was the leading factor over the biomass-burning-dominant (BBD) regions, contributing 24.0 %–27.7 % of the variation. Additionally, wind speed was found to be the leading meteorological parameter, explaining 11.8 %–30.3 % of the variance over the mineral-dust-dominant regions, while ambient humidity (including soil moisture and relative humidity) was the top meteorological parameter over the BBD regions, accounting for 11.7 %–35.5 % of the variation. The results of this study indicate that the variation in meteorological parameters is a key factor in determining the inter-decadal change in regional AOD.

Huizheng Che↗

Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet 1992–2016: Reconciling Results from GRACE Gravimetry With ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat Altimetry

GRACE and ICESat Antarctic mass-balance differences are resolved utilizing their dependencies on corrections for changes in mass and volume of the same underlying mantle material forced by ice-loading changes. Modeled gravimetry corrections are 5.22 times altimetry corrections over East Antarctica (EA) and 4.51 times over West Antarctica (WA), with inferred mantle densities 4.75 and 4.11 g/cu. cm. Derived sensitivities (Sg, Sa) to bedrock motion enable calculation of motion (δB0) needed to equalize GRACE and ICESat mass changes during 2003–08. For EA, δB0 is −2.2 mm/a subsidence with mass matching at 150 Gt/a, inland WA is −3.5 mm/a at 66 Gt/a, and coastal WA is only −0.35 mm/a at −95 Gt/a. WA subsidence is attributed to low mantle viscosity with faster responses to post-LGM deglaciation and to ice growth during Holocene grounding-line readvance. EA subsidence is attributed to Holocene dynamic thickening. With Antarctic Peninsula loss of −26 Gt/a, the Antarctic total gain is 95 ± 25 Gt/a during 2003–08, compared to 144 ± 61 Gt/a from ERS1/2 during 1992–2001. Beginning in 2009, large increases in coastal WA dynamic losses overcame long-term EA and inland WA gains bringing Antarctica close to balance at −12 ± 64 Gt/a by 2012–16.

Antarctic glaciology↗

Empirical Assessment of the Appliance-Level Load Shape and Demand Response Potential in India

Over the next 15 years, electricity demand from the key residential and commercial appliances is projected to be nearly 300 GW or ~65% of India’s total peak demand. The objective of this study is to characterize appliance level demand and temporal variation, and identify the overall DR potential in India. We use Bangalore Electricity Supply Company territory (peak load of 3,505 MW in 2016) as a case study, using actual one-minute resolution load data for 2,979 distribution feeders and a detailed load survey. Our results show that agricultural pumping and space cooling (residential, commercial, and industrial) are the main contributors to the peak demand – with shares of 23-27% and 14-23%, respectively. Both sectors have about 1,000 MW of DR potential – agricultural pumps offering load shifting service while space cooling offering shimmy service that is capable of dynamically adjusting to react to short-run ramps and grid disturbances. Residential electric water heaters contribute nearly 18% of the winter morning peak demand and can also offer about 500 MW in shimmy service. Overall, we find that shifting and shimmy services offer 1,199 MW and 1,511 MW total DR potential, respectively.

demand response↗

From RNNs to Foundation Models: An Empirical Study on Commercial Building Energy Consumption

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting for commercial buildings is crucial for smart grid operations. While smart meters and deep learning models enable forecasting using past data from multiple buildings, data heterogeneity from diverse buildings can reduce model performance. The impact of increasing dataset heterogeneity in time series forecasting, while keeping size and model constant, is understudied. We tackle this issue using the ComStock dataset, which provides synthetic energy consumption data for U.S. commercial buildings. Two curated subsets, identical in size and region but differing in building type diversity, are used to assess the performance of various time series forecasting models, including finetuned open-source foundation models (FMs). The results show that dataset heterogeneity and model architecture have a greater impact on post-training forecasting performance than the parameter count. Moreover, despite the higher computational cost, finetuned FMs demonstrate competitive performance compared to base models trained from scratch.

commercial buildings↗

A Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination in Advanced Composites under Variable-Mode Loading

A thermodynamically consistent damage model is proposed for the simulation of progressive delamination in composite materials under variable-mode ratio. The model is formulated in the context of Damage Mechanics. A novel constitutive equation is developed to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A delamination initiation criterion is proposed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation accounts for crack closure effects to avoid interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers after complete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation, and the numerical predictions are compared with experimental results obtained in both composite test specimens and structural components.

Turon, A.↗

Skylab experience with Apollo docking/latching loads.

Description of the four-year development of Skylab analytical programs, mathematical model complexity, and vibration and load analyses associated with the docking/latching maneuver. Examples are shown where coarse models produced loads in excess of structural capability. However, subsequent model refinement lowered the loads to the point where redesign was not required. A summary of experience gained over a four-year period is presented in the conclusions.

Heath, R. A.↗

A new computational model for the prediction of mass loading phenomena for solar wind interactions with cometary and planetary ionospheres

The modified gasdynamic convected-magnetic-field MHD model developed by Spreiter and Stahara (1980) to simulate the supersonic flow of the solar wind past planetary magnetoionospheres is extended to account for cases (such as Venus and comets) in which significant numbers of neutral atmospheric atoms become ionized in the surrounding flow and add to its momentum, energy, and mass. The mathematical model and the solution procedures for the nose and tail regions are explained; typical computational grids are shown; and numerical results for a comet and for the Venus ionosheath and bow shock are presented graphically. It is found that the bow shock weakens and moves further upstream of the obstacle as mass loading is increased and the flow upstream of the bow shock becomes more compressed.

Stahara, Stephen S.↗

Modeling Workloads of a Linear Electromagnetic Code for Load Balancing Matrix Assembly

This report presents our work to model the workloads of a linear electromagnetic application based on the method of moments in the frequency domain to effectively load balance the matrix assembly. This application is particularly challenging to load balance due to its lack of persistent iterative behavior, its operation under tight memory constraint (where the matrix may fill 80% of memory on each node), and the algorithmic complexity of the computational method. This report describes the first step in our work to apply an inspector-executor approach for load balancing workloads where key parameters are exposed during the inspector phase and a pre-trained model is applied to predict relative task weights for the load balancer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A reliability-based cost effective fail-safe design procedure

The authors have developed a methodology for cost-effective fatigue design of structures subject to random fatigue loading. A stochastic model for fatigue crack propagation under random loading has been discussed. Fracture mechanics is then used to estimate the parameters of the model and the residual strength of structures with cracks. The stochastic model and residual strength variations have been used to develop procedures for estimating the probability of failure and its changes with inspection frequency. This information on reliability is then used to construct an objective function in terms of either a total weight function or cost function. A procedure for selecting the design variables, subject to constraints, by optimizing the objective function has been illustrated by examples. In particular, optimum design of stiffened panel has been discussed.

Hanagud, S.↗

Tests of a protective shell passive release mechanism for hypersonic wind-tunnel models

A protective shell mechanism for wind tunnel models was developed and tested. The mechanism is passive in operation, reliable, and imposes no new structural design changes for wind tunnel models. Methods of predicting the release time and the measured loads associated with the release of the shell are given. The mechanism was tested in a series of wind tunnel tests to validate the removal process and measure the pressure loads on the model. The protective shell can be used for wind tunnel models that require a step input of heating and loading such as a thin skin heat transfer model. The mechanism may have other potential applications.

Puster, R. L.↗

Results of a landing gear loads test using a 0.0405-scale model (16-0) of the space shuttle orbiter in the Rockwell International NAAL wind tunnel (OA163B), volume 1

Aerodynamic loads on a sting mounted 0.045-scale representation of the 140C outer mold line space shuttle orbiter configuration were measured to verify orbiter landing gear system pressure loading and hinge moment levels. Pressure, force, and hinge moment data, recorded over smaller increments of the landing gear deployment schedule to insure data accuracy and to investigate the effects of asymmetric gear deployment on all parameters, are presented. Tests were conducted at a Mach number of 0.17, and freestream dynamic pressure of 42.5 psf, and a Reynolds number per unit length of 1.2 million foot. Angle of attack variation was -2 to 10 degrees while angles of sideslip varied from -5 to 5 degrees.

Mennell, R. C.↗

The structure of mass-loading shocks

A new two-fluid model which describes mass loading in the solar wind (e.g., the interaction of the solar wind with a cometary coma or the local interstellar medium) is presented. The self-consistent back-reaction of the mass-loaded ions is included through their effective scattering in low-frequency MHD turbulence and the invocation of a diffusive approximation. Such an approximation has the advantage of introducing self-consistent dissipation coefficients into the governing equations, thereby facilitating the investigation of the internal structure of shocks in mass-loading environments. To illustrate the utility of the new model, we consider the structure of cometary shocks in the hypersonic one-dimensional limit, finding that the incoming solar wind is slowed by both mass loading and the development of a large cometary ion pressure gradient. The shock is broadened and smoothed by the cometary ions with a thickness of the order of the cometary ion diffusion scale.

Zank, G. P.↗

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR (Hybird-Reinforcement-Learning-Model-Predictive-Control-for-Reserve-Policy-Assisted-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Distribution-Grids)

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR was developed as a hybrid controller for active distribution grid critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. The RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while the MPC models grid operations incorporating the RL policy actions (i.e., reserve requirements), renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. The developers formulated the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision-making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC simulation. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The software is developed using various software packages in Python. The MPC's optimal power flow (OPF) model is implemented using the Pyomo package, the RL simulation environment is implemented using the MPC simulation with various scenarios of renewable energy and load demand profiles and power outage beginning times, based on the OpenAI Gym framework. The RL agent training is performed using the RLlib Ray package. The RL algorithm is trained offline using historical forecasts of renewable generation and load demand profiles. Simulation analysis and performance tests are conducted using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine, and battery.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗

ComStock Measure Documentation: Ideal Thermal Air Loads

This study provides hypothetical thermal heating and cooling loads for ComStock models representing the U.S. commercial building stock. This measure scenario removes all HVAC models from the baseline ComStock building model and instead uses "ideal air" to meet loads. "Ideal air" can be thought of as an HVAC unit that mixes air at the zone exhaust condition with the specified amount of outdoor air, and then adds or removes heat and moisture at 100% efficiency to produce a supply air stream at the specified conditions. The resulting ideal thermal loads are represented under the "district" fuel type for both heating and cooling and can be found in both annual and timeseries results in the ComStock public dataset. This measure scenario does not represent any real technology or improvement, but rather, serves as a resource for thermal heating and cooling loads for buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Development of an Aeroelastic Modeling Capability for Transient Nozzle Side Load Analysis

Lateral nozzle forces are known to cause severe structural damage to any new rocket engine in development during test. While three-dimensional, transient, turbulent, chemically reacting computational fluid dynamics methodology has been demonstrated to capture major side load physics with rigid nozzles, hot-fire tests often show nozzle structure deformation during major side load events, leading to structural damages if structural strengthening measures were not taken. The modeling picture is incomplete without the capability to address the two-way responses between the structure and fluid. The objective of this study is to develop a coupled aeroelastic modeling capability by implementing the necessary structural dynamics component into an anchored computational fluid dynamics methodology. The computational fluid dynamics component is based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based computational fluid dynamics formulation, while the computational structural dynamics component is developed in the framework of modal analysis. Transient aeroelastic nozzle startup analyses of the Block I Space Shuttle Main Engine at sea level were performed. The computed results from the aeroelastic nozzle modeling are presented.

Wang, Ten-See↗