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At least 703 records · Page 39

Gender-related Changes in Dorsal Hand and Foot Vein Function Following 60 Days of Head Down Bed Rest

It is well known that female astronauts are more likely to experience post-flight orthostatic hypotension and presyncope compared to male astronauts. It has been suggested that the disproportionally higher incidence of presyncope (83% of female vs. 20% male crewmembers) may be due to sex-related differences in vascular function between the upper and lower limbs. However, much of this evidence is specific to changes in resistance vessels. Given that more than 70% of the circulating blood volume resides in compliance vessels, it is conceivable that even small changes in venous function may contribute to post-flight orthostatic hypotension. In spite of this, little is currently known regarding the influence of microgravity exposure on venous function between males and females. PURPOSE: To determine the influence of 60 days of HDBR on dorsal foot and hand vein function between healthy males (M) and females (F). METHODS: Using 2-D ultrasound, dorsal hand and foot vein diameter responses to intravenous infusions phenylephrine (PE), acetylcholine (ACh), and nitroglycerine (NTG) were determined in 26 adults; 10 females (age:37 +/- 2 yr ) and 16 males (age:34 +/- 2 yr ). Changes in venous function were calculated as the difference between diameter at baseline and following each venoactive drug. Differences in venous function between limb and sexes across HDBR were determined using mixed-effects linear regression. RESULTS: In response to 60 days of HDBR, the change in venousconstrictor response to PE in the dorsal hand veins was not significantly different between M and F. Interestingly, the change in constrictor response in the dorsal foot veins (compared to pre HDBR) was approximately 30% greater in the F, whereas the constrictor response was approximately 45% less in the M (p=0.026). HDBR had no influence on the change in dilator response to ACh, or NTG between M and F and between vascular beds. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that 60 days of HDBR contributes to sex-related differences in venous function. Importantly, the changes are specific to dorsal foot veins and do not appear to be related to changes in endothelial or smooth muscle function. Previous data from our laboratory indicate that females have an impaired sympathetic response following HDBR. However, the results from the current investigation imply that F maintain the ability to respond to sympathetic stimulation but may not be able to adequately activate a proper response following HDBR.

Westby, Christian M.↗

Roles of Engineering Correlations in Hypersonic Entry Boundary Layer Transition Prediction

Efforts to design and operate hypersonic entry vehicles are constrained by many considerations that involve all aspects of an entry vehicle system. One of the more significant physical phenomenon that affect entry trajectory and thermal protection system design is the occurrence of boundary layer transition from a laminar to turbulent state. During the Space Shuttle Return To Flight activity following the loss of Columbia and her crew of seven, NASA's entry aerothermodynamics community implemented an engineering correlation based framework for the prediction of boundary layer transition on the Orbiter. The methodology for this implementation relies upon the framework of correlation techniques that have been in use for several decades. What makes the Orbiter boundary layer transition correlation implementation unique is that a statistically significant data set was acquired in multiple ground test facilities, flight data exists to assist in establishing a better correlation and the framework was founded upon state of the art chemical nonequilibrium Navier Stokes flow field simulations. The basic tenets that guided the formulation and implementation of the Orbiter Return To Flight boundary layer transition prediction capability will be reviewed as a recommended format for future empirical correlation efforts. The validity of this approach has since been demonstrated by very favorable comparison of recent entry flight testing performed with the Orbiter Discovery, which will be graphically summarized. These flight data can provide a means to validate discrete protuberance engineering correlation approaches as well as high fidelity prediction methods to higher confidence. The results of these Orbiter engineering and flight test activities only serve to reinforce the essential role that engineering correlations currently exercise in the design and operation of entry vehicles. The framework of information-related to the Orbiter empirical boundary layer transition prediction capability will be utilized to establish a fresh perspective on this role, to illustrate how quantitative statistical evaluations of empirical correlations can and should be used to assess accuracy and to discuss what the authors' perceive as a recent heightened interest in the application of high fidelity numerical modeling of boundary layer transition. Concrete results will also be developed related to empirical boundary layer transition onset correlations. This will include assessment of the discrete protuberance boundary layer transition onset data assembled for the Orbiter configuration during post-Columbia Return To Flight. Assessment of these data will conclude that momentum thickness Reynolds number based correlations have superior coefficients and uncertainty in comparison to roughness height based Reynolds numbers, aka Re(sub k) or Re(sub kk). In addition, linear regression results from roughness height Reynolds number based correlations will be evaluated, leading to a hypothesis that non-continuum effects play a role in the processes associated with incipient boundary layer transition on discrete protuberances.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

60 Days of Head-down Bedrest Differentially Alters Venous Function in Lower and Upper Body Between Healthy Men and Women

The incidence of orthostatic intolerance after space flight is disproportionally higher in female compared to male crewmembers (83% vs. 20%). Experimental and human data suggest that the loss of orthostatic tolerance is due, at least in part, to microgravity-induced changes in venous compliance and that these changes are specific to the lower body. It is unknown however, whether the changes in venous compliance are different between males and females after space flight, and whether this is related to the disparity in orthostatic intolerance between the sexes. Using 6deg head-down bed rest (BR) as a model of space flight, we tested the following hypotheses; 1) females, compared to males, would experience a greater increase in venous compliance in dorsal foot veins as an effect of BR and 2) no differences in venous compliance would be found in dorsal hand veins between sexes and across BR days. Using 2-D ultrasound, dorsal hand (DHV) and foot vein (DFV) responses (diameter; expressed as sq mm) to 40 mmHg of congestion pressure (compliance) and to intravenous infusion of phenylephrine (PE; 3160ng/min) were determined in 10 females and 16 males before and after 60 days of BR. The relation between changes in vein diameter (in response to pressure and PE), sex, limb, and BR days were determined using a mixed-effect linear regression. It was found that after 60 days of BR, DFV dilator response to pressure was significantly greater in females and significantly less in males compared to pre-BR. As expected, there were no differences in DHV dilator response between sexes nor was there a significant difference between pre and post measures within groups. Notably, the venoconstrictor response to infusions of PE in the DHV and DFV where similar between sexes and across BR days. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that after 60 days of BR, dorsal foot veins are more compliant in women and less compliant in men. Moreover, the changes in lower body vein compliance in females do not appear to be due to changes in vasoconstrictor tone as their response to PE was preserved and similar to that in males. Taken together these data suggest that the higher incidence of orthostatic intolerance in females after space flight is due to increased venous compliance in the lower body which could translate to lower venous filling pressures and a reduced stroke volume.

Westby, Christian M.↗

Mechanisms and Feedbacks Causing Changes in Upper Stratospheric Ozone in the 21st Century

Stratospheric ozone is expected to increase during the 21st century as the abundance of halogenated ozone-depleting substances decrease to 1960 values. However, climate change will likely alter this "recovery" of stratospheric ozone by changing stratospheric temperatures, circulation, and abundance of reactive chemical species. Here we quantity the contribution of different mechanisms to changes in upper stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM), using multiple linear regression analysis applied to simulations using either Alb or A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. In both these scenarios upper stratospheric ozone has a secular increase over the 21st century. For the simulation using the Alb GHG scenario, this increase is determined by the decrease in halogen amounts and the greenhouse gas induced cooling, with roughly equal contributions from each mechanism. There is a larger cooling in the simulation using the A2 GHG scenario, but also enhanced loss from higher NOy and HOx concentrations, which nearly offsets the increase due to cooler temperatures. The resulting ozone evolutions are similar in the A2 and Alb simulations. The response of ozone due to feedbacks from temperature and HOx changes, related to changing halogen concentrations, are also quantified using simulations with fixed halogen concentrations.

Oman, Luke↗

An Investigation of Widespread Ozone Damage to the Soybean Crop in the Upper Midwest Determined From Ground-Based and Satellite Measurements

Elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) are frequently measured over farmland regions in many parts of the world. While numerous experimental studies show that O3 can significantly decrease crop productivity, independent verifications of yield losses at current ambient O3 concentrations in rural locations are sparse. In this study, soybean crop yield data during a 5-year period over the Midwest of the United States were combined with ground and satellite O3 measurements to provide evidence that yield losses on the order of 10% could be estimated through the use of a multiple linear regression model. Yield loss trends based on both conventional ground-based instrumentation and satellite-derived tropospheric O3 measurements were statistically significant and were consistent with results obtained from open-top chamber experiments and an open-air experimental facility (SoyFACE, Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment) in central Illinois. Our analysis suggests that such losses are a relatively new phenomenon due to the increase in background tropospheric O3 levels over recent decades. Extrapolation of these findings supports previous studies that estimate the global economic loss to the farming community of more than $10 billion annually.

Fishman, Jack↗

Multi-Model Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution Over the 21st Century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from fourteen chemistry-climate models. There is general agreement among the models at the broadest levels, showing column ozone decreasing at all latitudes from 1960 to around 2000, then increasing at all latitudes over the first half of the 21st century, and latitudinal variations in the rate of increase and date of return to historical values. In the second half of the century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off or even decrease depending on the latitude, resulting in variable dates of return to historical values at latitudes where column ozone has declined below those levels. Separation into partial column above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely due to differences in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels before the end of the century, although there is a spread among the models in dates that ozone returns to historical values. Using multiple linear regression, we find decreasing halogens and increasing greenhouse gases contribute almost equally to increases in the upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere an increase in tropical upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in all models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels.

Oman, L. D.↗

Design and Development of a Model to Simulate 0-G Treadmill Running Using the European Space Agency's Subject Loading System

Develop a model that simulates a human running in 0 G using the European Space Agency s (ESA) Subject Loading System (SLS). The model provides ground reaction forces (GRF) based on speed and pull-down forces (PDF). DESIGN The theoretical basis for the Running Model was based on a simple spring-mass model. The dynamic properties of the spring-mass model express theoretical vertical GRF (GRFv) and shear GRF in the posterior-anterior direction (GRFsh) during running gait. ADAMs VIEW software was used to build the model, which has a pelvis, thigh segment, shank segment, and a spring foot (see Figure 1).the model s movement simulates the joint kinematics of a human running at Earth gravity with the aim of generating GRF data. DEVELOPMENT & VERIFICATION ESA provided parabolic flight data of subjects running while using the SLS, for further characterization of the model s GRF. Peak GRF data were fit to a linear regression line dependent on PDF and speed. Interpolation and extrapolation of the regression equation provided a theoretical data matrix, which is used to drive the model s motion equations. Verification of the model was conducted by running the model at 4 different speeds, with each speed accounting for 3 different PDF. The model s GRF data fell within a 1-standard-deviation boundary derived from the empirical ESA data. CONCLUSION The Running Model aids in conducting various simulations (potential scenarios include a fatigued runner or a powerful runner generating high loads at a fast cadence) to determine limitations for the T2 vibration isolation system (VIS) aboard the International Space Station. This model can predict how running with the ESA SLS affects the T2 VIS and may be used for other exercise analyses in the future.

Caldwell, E. C.↗

Simulation and Flight Evaluation of a Parameter Estimation Input Design Method for Hybrid-Wing-Body Aircraft

As part of an effort to improve emissions, noise, and performance of next generation aircraft, it is expected that future aircraft will make use of distributed, multi-objective control effectors in a closed-loop flight control system. Correlation challenges associated with parameter estimation will arise with this expected aircraft configuration. Research presented in this paper focuses on addressing the correlation problem with an appropriate input design technique and validating this technique through simulation and flight test of the X-48B aircraft. The X-48B aircraft is an 8.5 percent-scale hybrid wing body aircraft demonstrator designed by The Boeing Company (Chicago, Illinois, USA), built by Cranfield Aerospace Limited (Cranfield, Bedford, United Kingdom) and flight tested at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dryden Flight Research Center (Edwards, California, USA). Based on data from flight test maneuvers performed at Dryden Flight Research Center, aerodynamic parameter estimation was performed using linear regression and output error techniques. An input design technique that uses temporal separation for de-correlation of control surfaces is proposed, and simulation and flight test results are compared with the aerodynamic database. This paper will present a method to determine individual control surface aerodynamic derivatives.

Taylor, Brian R.↗

Physical Interpretation of the Correlation Between Multi-Angle Spectral Data and Canopy Height

Recent empirical studies have shown that multi-angle spectral data can be useful for predicting canopy height, but the physical reason for this correlation was not understood. We follow the concept of canopy spectral invariants, specifically escape probability, to gain insight into the observed correlation. Airborne Multi-Angle Imaging Spectrometer (AirMISR) and airborne Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) data acquired during a NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program aircraft campaign underlie our analysis. Two multivariate linear regression models were developed to estimate LVIS height measures from 28 AirMISR multi-angle spectral reflectances and from the spectrally invariant escape probability at 7 AirMISR view angles. Both models achieved nearly the same accuracy, suggesting that canopy spectral invariant theory can explain the observed correlation. We hypothesize that the escape probability is sensitive to the aspect ratio (crown diameter to crown height). The multi-angle spectral data alone therefore may not provide enough information to retrieve canopy height globally

Schull, M. A.↗

Multi-Model Assessment of the Factors Driving the Ozone Evolution Over the 21st Century

The evolution of ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from fourteen chemistry-climate models. There is general agreement among the models at the broadest levels, with all showing column ozone decreasing at all latitudes from 1960 to around 2000, then increasing at all latitudes over the first half of the 21 st century (21 C), and latitudinal variations in the rate of increase and date of return to historical values. In the second half of the century, ozone is projected to carry on increasing, level off or even decrease depending on the latitude, resulting in variable dates of return to historical values at latitudes where column ozone has declined below those levels. Separation into partial column above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely due to differences in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21 C and returns to 1960 levels before the end of the century, although there is a spread among the models in dates that ozone returns to historical values. Using multiple linear regression the upper stratospheric ozone increase comes from almost equal contributions due to decrease in halogens and cooling from increased greenhouse gas concentrations. The evolution of lower stratospheric ozone differs with latitude. In the tropical lower stratosphere an increase in tropical upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21C, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in all models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21 C and returns to 1960 levels. For all models there is an earlier return for ozone to historical levels in the northern hemisphere. This is thought to be due to interhemispheric differences in transport.

Oman, L.↗

Estimation of Surface Air Temperature from MODIS 1km Resolution Land Surface Temperature Over Northern China

Surface air temperature is a critical variable to describe the energy and water cycle of the Earth-atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. It is a very important variable in agricultural applications and climate change studies. This is a preliminary study to examine statistical relationships between ground meteorological station measured surface daily maximum/minimum air temperature and satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature from MODIS over the dry and semiarid regions of northern China. Studies were conducted for both MODIS-Terra and MODIS-Aqua by using year 2009 data. Results indicate that the relationships between surface air temperature and remotely sensed land surface temperature are statistically significant. The relationships between the maximum air temperature and daytime land surface temperature depends significantly on land surface types and vegetation index, but the minimum air temperature and nighttime land surface temperature has little dependence on the surface conditions. Based on linear regression relationship between surface air temperature and MODIS land surface temperature, surface maximum and minimum air temperatures are estimated from 1km MODIS land surface temperature under clear sky conditions. The statistical errors (sigma) of the estimated daily maximum (minimum) air temperature is about 3.8 C(3.7 C).

Shen, Suhung↗

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao↗

The Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO

We have successfully reproduced the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) forced by observed sea surface temperatures over a 25-year period. The vertical ozone response to ENSO is consistent with changes in the Walker circulation. We derive the sensitivity of simulated ozone to ENSO variations using linear regression analysis. The western Pacific and Indian Ocean region shows similar positive ozone sensitivities from the surface to the upper troposphere, in response to positive anomalies in the Nino 3.4 Index. The eastern and central Pacific region shows negative sensitivities with the largest sensitivity in the upper troposphere. This vertical response compares well with that derived from SHADOZ ozonesondes in each region. The OEI reveals a response of tropospheric ozone to circulation change that is nearly independent of changes in emissions and thus it is potentially useful in chemistry-climate model evaluation.

Oman, L. D.↗

System Identification Applied to Dynamic CFD Simulation and Wind Tunnel Data

Demanding aerodynamic modeling requirements for military and civilian aircraft have provided impetus for researchers to improve computational and experimental techniques. Model validation is a key component for these research endeavors so this study is an initial effort to extend conventional time history comparisons by comparing model parameter estimates and their standard errors using system identification methods. An aerodynamic model of an aircraft performing one-degree-of-freedom roll oscillatory motion about its body axes is developed. The model includes linear aerodynamics and deficiency function parameters characterizing an unsteady effect. For estimation of unknown parameters two techniques, harmonic analysis and two-step linear regression, were applied to roll-oscillatory wind tunnel data and to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulated data. The model used for this study is a highly swept wing unmanned aerial combat vehicle. Differences in response prediction, parameters estimates, and standard errors are compared and discussed

Murphy, Patrick C.↗

Evaluation and Windspeed Dependence of MODIS Aerosol Retrievals Over Open Ocean

The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) data set provides high quality ground-truth to validate the MODIS aerosol product over open ocean. Prior validation of the ocean aerosol product has been limited to coastal and island sites. Comparing MODIS Collection 5 ocean aerosol retrieval products with collocated MAN measurements from ships shows that MODIS is meeting the pre-launch uncertainty estimates for aerosol optical depth (AOD) with 64% and 67% of retrievals at 550 nm, and 74% and 78% of retrievals at 870 nm, falling within expected uncertainty for Terra and Aqua, respectively. Angstrom Exponent comparisons show a high correlation between MODIS retrievals and shipboard measurements (R= 0.85 Terra, 0.83 Aqua), although the MODIS aerosol algorithm tends to underestimate particle size for large particles and overestimate size for small particles, as seen in earlier Collections. Prior analysis noted an offset between Terra and Aqua ocean AOD, without concluding which sensor was more accurate. The simple linear regression reported here, is consistent with other anecdotal evidence that Aqua agreement with AERONET is marginally better. However we cannot claim based on the current study that the better Aqua comparison is statistically significant. Systematic increase of error as a function of wind speed is noted in both Terra and Aqua retrievals. This wind speed dependency enters the retrieval when winds deviate from the 6 m/s value assumed in the rough ocean surface and white cap parameterizations. Wind speed dependency in the results can be mitigated by using auxiliary NCEP wind speed information in the retrieval process.

Kleidman, Richard G.↗

Non-Contact Thrust Stand Calibration Method for Repetitively-Pulsed Electric Thrusters

A thrust stand calibration technique for use in testing repetitively-pulsed electric thrusters for in-space propulsion has been developed and tested using a modified hanging pendulum thrust stand. In the implementation of this technique, current pulses are applied to a solenoidal coil to produce a pulsed magnetic field that acts against the magnetic field produced by a permanent magnet mounted to the thrust stand pendulum arm. The force on the magnet is applied in this non-contact manner, with the entire pulsed force transferred to the pendulum arm through a piezoelectric force transducer to provide a time-accurate force measurement. Modeling of the pendulum arm dynamics reveals that after an initial transient in thrust stand motion the quasisteady average deflection of the thrust stand arm away from the unforced or zero position can be related to the average applied force through a simple linear Hooke s law relationship. Modeling demonstrates that this technique is universally applicable except when the pulsing period is increased to the point where it approaches the period of natural thrust stand motion. Calibration data were obtained using a modified hanging pendulum thrust stand previously used for steady-state thrust measurements. Data were obtained for varying impulse bit at constant pulse frequency and for varying pulse frequency. The two data sets exhibit excellent quantitative agreement with each other as the constant relating average deflection and average thrust match within the errors on the linear regression curve fit of the data. Quantitatively, the error on the calibration coefficient is roughly 1% of the coefficient value.

Wong, Andrea R.↗

Lower Limb Venous Compliance is Different Between Men and Women Following 60 Days of Head-Down Bedrest but Is Not Associated with Venoconstriction Dysfunction

Space flight-induced orthostatic intolerance (OI) is more prevalent in female (F) than male (M) astronauts. The mechanisms explaining the higher incidence of OI in F are unclear. We tested the hypothesis that venous compliance would be higher in F more than M following 6 deg head-down bed rest (BR) and would be associated with constrictor dysfunction. Using 2-D ultrasound, dorsal hand (DHV) and dorsal foot (DFV) vein compliances were determined in 24 subjects (10 F, 14 M; 35 +/- 1 yr) by measuring mean diameter response to increasing congestion pressure (0, 20, 30, and 40 mmHg) before and after 60 d of BR. Constrictor function was assessed by intravenous infusions of Ketorolac (KE; 1.5 ig/min) Phenylephrine (PE; 3160 ng/min), and L-NMMA (50 ig/min). The effects of BR between F vs. M and hand vs. foot were determined using mixed-effects linear regression. DFV but not DHV compliance changed in response to BR (p=0.012). Mean DFV increased significantly (0.903 mm to 1.191mm) in F but decreased in M (1.353 mm to 1.154 mm). DFV constrictor response was not different between sexes in response to BR (KE; p=0.647, PE; p=0.717, and L-NMMA; p=0.825). These BR data suggest that the higher incidence of OI in F astronauts may be related to increased lower limb venous compliance, contributing to blood pooling upon standing. Notably, changes to DFV compliance was not accompanied by impaired constrictor function.

Westby, Christian M.↗

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Barrett, Joe, III↗