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At least 703 records · Page 39

Modeling PAH Mixture Interactions in a Human In Vitro Organotypic Respiratory Model

One of the most significant challenges in human health risk assessment is to evaluate hazards from exposure to environmental chemical mixtures. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a class of ubiquitous contaminants typically found as mixtures in gaseous and particulate phases in ambient air pollution associated with petrochemicals from Superfund sites and the burning of fossil fuels. However, little is understood about how PAHs in mixtures contribute to toxicity in lung cells. To investigate mixture interactions and component additivity from environmentally relevant PAHs, two synthetic mixtures were created from PAHs identified in passive air samplers at a legacy creosote site impacted by wildfires. The primary human bronchial epithelial cells differentiated at the air–liquid interface were treated with PAH mixtures at environmentally relevant proportions and evaluated for the differential expression of transcriptional biomarkers related to xenobiotic metabolism, oxidative stress response, barrier integrity, and DNA damage response. Component additivity was evaluated across all endpoints using two independent action (IA) models with and without the scaling of components by toxic equivalence factors. Both IA models exhibited trends that were unlike the observed mixture response and generally underestimated the toxicity across dose suggesting the potential for non-additive interactions of components. Overall, this study provides an example of the usefulness of mixture toxicity assessment with the currently available methods while demonstrating the need for more complex yet interpretable mixture response evaluation methods for environmental samples.

3D in vitro models↗

Hector-FACTS Technical Report & User Guide: Integrating Hector into the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level

The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) platform was developed by (Kopp et al., 2023) as an open-source modular tool capable of generating probabilistic projections for global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City (Kopp et al., 2023). FACTS is the first open-source modular tool designed to explore deep uncertainty in SLR while also synthesizing across different modeling groups and integrating the various components of SLR used in key climate reports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Techno-economic life cycle assessment of CO 2 -EOR operations towards net negative emissions at farnsworth field unit

Optimizations of CO 2 Water Alternating Gas(WAG)- systems with multi-objectives of incremental recovery and maximization of CO 2 storage are challenging. Here, the incorporation of a total Greenhouse gas (GHG) life cycle assessment is mostly ignored leading to inaccurate estimation of overall net carbon emissions of their operations. In this study, the effect of a total GHG life cycle assessment on a multi-objective CO 2 -WAG optimization with integrated techno-economic assessment (TEA) which factors carbon tax credit is conducted. A life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted utilizing a 20 -year optimized post history matched data from a high fidelity reservoir simulation model. Using data generated from the optimum result, a techno-economic life cycle analysis was further conducted. The first scenario classified as the base model had an estimated 81% of purchased CO 2 sequestered. The results through a comprehensive techno-economic LCA model yielded a net estimate of 73% of purchased CO 2 . The optimized forecasted model which considered key operational and reservoir factors such as WAG ratio, injection rates and periods, and well specification resulted in an improved sequestration of 92% of purchased CO 2 . However, this also dropped to 84% after taking it through LCA. These results clearly indicate a significant amount of net CO 2 is not accounted for when operations are not analyzed through LCA. From the LCA, direct flaring volumes of CO 2 , energy consumption and efficiency of unit equipment were noticed to be the major causes of these reductions. Considering ten main sources of energy as source of energy generation, a comparative techno-eco LCA was conducted. The results confirmed a lower net volume and NPV for energy sources with higher carbon footprints and vice versa. Thus, a total LCA of CO 2 -WAG greatly influences net storage factor of purchased CO 2 and hence project NPV where tax credit/incentives per ton of CO 2 sequestered is considered. Although operational conditions are optimized for best results, there are significant factors that leads to minimization of net storage factor. This study therefore provides an insightful information for optimizing CO 2 -WAG multi-objectives to achieve minimum GHG emission.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Verification of Bison fission product species conservation under TRISO reactor conditions

When assessing the reliability and predictive capabilities of a simulation tool, code verification is used to ensure that the implemented numerical algorithm is a faithful representation of its underlying mathematical model, including partial differential or integral equations, initial and boundary conditions, and auxiliary relationships. During this process, numerical results in a discrete solution are compared to the analytical solution of the mathematical model. Here, in this paper, the code verification process is applied to one-dimensional spatiotemporal problems that exercise partial differential equation governing the conservation of fission product species (or mass diffusion). Numerical experiments were performed in the Bison fuel performance code to evaluate its predictive capability under various TRISO reactor conditions such as base irradiation and safety heating test conditions for either short- or long-lived fission product species, as well as a case concerning evaporation from the outer surface of a particle. The code predictions were compared with the expected exact results obtained from the analytical expressions, and the fact that they demonstrate the correct analytical behavior provides strong evidence of proper numerical algorithm implementation.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Surface parameters and bedrock properties covary across a mountainous watershed: Insights from machine learning and geophysics

Bedrock property quantification is critical for predicting the hydrological response of watersheds to climate disturbances. Estimating bedrock hydraulic properties over watershed scales is inherently difficult, particularly in fracture-dominated regions. Our analysis tests the covariability of above- and belowground features on a watershed scale, by linking borehole geophysical data, near-surface geophysics, and remote sensing data. We use machine learning to quantify the relationships between bedrock geophysical/hydrological properties and geomorphological/vegetation indices and show that machine learning relationships can estimate most of their covariability. Although we can predict the electrical resistivity variation across the watershed, regions of lower variability in the input parameters are shown to provide better estimates, indicating a limitation of commonly applied geomorphological models. Our results emphasize that such an integrated approach can be used to derive detailed bedrock characteristics, allowing for identification of small-scale variations across an entire watershed that may be critical to assess the impact of disturbances on hydrological systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integrated and dynamic multi-spectroscopic in situ imaging of plant metabolism at the level of subcellular compartments. Final Report

The goals of this project was to develop integrated multi-spectral molecular imaging technologies (Raman, fluorescence, and mass spectrometry), that can assess, and image metabolic processes at the cellular and subcellular levels of plant organs. These imaging technologies were developed in the context of computational capabilities that integrated multi-spectral images with genome scale models of metabolism. The integrated molecular imaging technologies were developed in the biological context of autophagy that remodels membrane lipid topologies, which control spatially defined subcellular regions within plant cells and optimizes plant biomass productivity during environmental stresses that can limit biomass productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework

The intermittent and stochastic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) necessitates accurate power production prediction for effective scheduling and grid management. This paper presents a comprehensive review conducted with reference to a pioneering, comprehensive, and data-driven framework proposed for solar Photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction. The systematic and integrating framework comprises three main phases carried out by seven main comprehensive modules for addressing numerous practical difficulties of the prediction task: phase I handles the aspects related to data acquisition (module 1) and manipulation (module 2) in preparation for the development of the prediction scheme; phase II tackles the aspects associated with the development of the prediction model (module 3) and the assessment of its accuracy (module 4), including the quantification of the uncertainty (module 5); and phase III evolves towards enhancing the prediction accuracy by incorporating aspects of context change detection (module 6) and incremental learning when new data become available (module 7). This framework adeptly addresses all facets of solar PV power production prediction, bridging existing gaps and offering a comprehensive solution to inherent challenges. By seamlessly integrating these elements, our approach stands as a robust and versatile tool for enhancing the precision of solar PV power prediction in real-world applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data for Filling the Cellulosic Bio-economy Gap by Utilizing a Wedge Approach Combined with Stakeholder Collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. The role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

Economics↗

Experimental testing of hypotheses for temperature‐ and pH ‐based niche specialization of ammonia oxidizing archaea and bacteria

Summary Investigation of niche specialization in microbial communities is important in assessing consequences of environmental change for ecosystem processes. Ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA) present a convenient model for studying niche specialization. They coexist in most soils and effects of soil characteristics on their relative abundances have been studied extensively. This study integrated published information on the influence of temperature and pH on AOB and AOA into several hypotheses, generating predictions that were tested in soil microcosms. The influence of perturbations in temperature was determined in pH 4.5, 6 and 7.5 soils and perturbations in pH were investigated at 15°C, 25°C and 35°C. AO activities were determined by analysing changes in amoA gene and transcript abundances, stable isotope probing and nitrate production. Experimental data supported major predictions of the effects of temperature and pH, but with several significant discrepancies, some of which may have resulted from experimental limitations. The study also provided evidence for unpredicted activity of AOB in pH 4.5 soil. Other discrepancies highlighted important deficiencies in current knowledge, particularly lack of consideration of niche overlap and the need to consider combinations of factors when assessing the influence of environmental change on microbial communities and their activities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling Interfaces to Support Low-Level Waste Disposal System Performance Assessments - 20366

In low-level waste (LLW) disposal sites, interfaces between cementitious materials, used as waste forms and/or engineered barriers, and the surrounding soil or backfill material are often encountered. Reactions across these interfaces may lead to chemical and structural alteration of the cementitious and backfill materials that may ultimately affect long-term performance. For example, the ingress of carbon dioxide from soil gas into a waste tank concrete shell at the Hanford Site or Savannah River Site (SRS) or a low-level waste disposal vault at SRS leads to carbonation of cement hydration products (e.g. portlandite, calcium-silicate hydrate or C-S-H, and ettringite). The result of carbonation is a decrease in pH in the cement paste portion of the tank wall or vault concrete structure that could ultimately lead to de-passivation of the embedded structural steel and, eventually, to cracking. Cracking can lead to increased ingress of water into the structure, corresponding increased release of constituents of concern, and to subsequent increased transport of these constituents to the surrounding environment. The mobility of trace constituents (e.g., radionuclides of concern) in waste forms may increase in response to changes in pH, pore structure, and mineralogical gradients. Depletion of portlandite results in subsequent decalcification of C-S-H that leads to changes in the cement strength and may lead to structural failure. At the boundary between waste forms and concrete vaults, the migration of sulfate ions from the salt waste form (e.g., the saltstone waste form used for LLW disposal at the Savannah River Site in Saltstone Disposal Units, or SDUs) into the barrier or vault concrete has been predicted to result in expansive mineral phase formation (or 'sulfate attack'). Expansive mineral formation could result in cracking and potential loss of structural integrity in the vault concrete. In the performance assessment (PA) for the SRS SDUs, prediction of both the carbonation and sulfate attack fronts are critical to assessing the long-term performance of these LLW disposal vaults. A general purpose geochemical reactive transport model has been developed in LeachXS/ORCHESTRA to evaluate typical interfaces for LLW disposal environments, including SDUs at SRS. The model may be used to predict the long-term performance of interfaces between cementitious materials and saltstone or backfill materials with respect to primary phases by considering mass transport, cement chemistry, geochemical speciation, and multi-ionic diffusion over interfaces between different materials. The present study compares the performance and interactions between vault concrete and saltstone waste form for a representative SDU scenario. The materials were characterized using pH-dependence leaching test (EPA 1313) and semi-dynamic transport tests (EPA 1315) with test results used to parameterize the interface model. The development of a credible inter model provides an important basis for supporting future PAs where carbonation and sulfate attack are important aging and degradation mechanisms. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating biomass composition and size effects on fast pyrolysis using global sensitivity analysis and CFD simulations

It is notoriously difficult to build an accurate universal model for biomass pyrolysis due to its sensitivity to a wide number of critical material attributes such as chemical species and physical sizes. In this work, a biomass pyrolysis kinetics with 32 heterogeneous reactions and 59 species was implemented in an open-source multiphase computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software MFiX and validated against two different experimental pyrolysis data sets that provided detailed data describing chemical component yields. The reaction scheme was then used to build a surrogate model and assess the sensitivity of pyrolysis yields to feedstock compositions. The sensitivity analysis determined that the yield of bio-char showed a strong positive sensitivity to the carbon-rich lignin and tannin pseudo-species in the reaction scheme while the bio-oil and bio-gas were correlated to oxygen-rich lignin pseudo-species. The reaction scheme was then integrated into a coarse-grained discrete element model to simulate fast pyrolysis in a bubbling fluidized bed over a range of feedstock particle sizes. The reactor simulations showed further sensitivity to particle size and hydrodynamics. Notably, particles under 0.5 mm have small heat transfer limitations but left the reactor before completely converting and thus reduced the bio-oil yield. Results from this study can be used to guide future development of highly accurate models for fast pyrolysis reactors with a variety of feedstock properties and operating conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Unsupervised probabilistic models for sequential Electronic Health Records

We develop an unsupervised probabilistic model for heterogeneous Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Utilizing a mixture model formulation, our approach directly models sequences of arbitrary length, such as medications and laboratory results. This allows for subgrouping and incorporation of the dynamics underlying heterogeneous data types. The model consists of a layered set of latent variables that encode underlying structure in the data. These variables represent subject subgroups at the top layer, and unobserved states for sequences in the second layer. We train this model on episodic data from subjects receiving medical care in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California integrated healthcare delivery system. The resulting properties of the trained model generate novel insight from these complex and multifaceted data. In addition, we show how the model can be used to analyze sequences that contribute to assessment of mortality likelihood.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗

Highly Integrated Wide Bandgap Power Module for Next Generation Plug-In Vehicles (Final Report)

Wide bandgap devices are key enablers for high power density traction inverters. A highly integrated wide bandgap (WBG) power module enables higher temperature operation, higher inverter efficiency and overall smaller die area with the same power delivery. However, it requires careful design of the power module to take advantage of all the superior material properties that silicon carbide (SiC) provides over conventional silicon (Si) Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT) based design. This project developed an efficient and densely packed SiC power module for an automotive traction inverter application. Extensive study was performed to select the best performing SiC die considering a wide range of temperature variation, suitability to integrate into target packaging, robust body diode performance and overall high electrical efficiency. Multiple design ideas were explored to achieve lower stray inductance for both power loop and signal loop, uniform current distribution, compact form factor, and very high thermal performance. The final power module package includes all six inverter switches in the same module (six-pack) with die sintered at both bottom and top surfaces utilizing high performance substrate to achieve high electrical and thermal performance. Two power module variants were developed using 900 V and 1200 V devices for operating at two different high voltage levels (> 600 V HV battery). Both power modules were comprehensively characterized, and high efficiency operation of the inverter was confirmed through analysis. Finally, a complete functional inverter was built with the 1200V power modules using other essential components (HV capacitors, gate driver board, controller board, current sensor, connectors etc.) and tested using GM’s standard test procedure. There are several challenges associated with adopting WBG devices for high voltage operation. In order to assess and mitigate those challenges, GM and subrecipients of this project have conducted multiple detailed studies. This includes phase current reconstruction using integrated Rogowski coil, device junction temperature estimation using on-state gate resistance, modeling and testing the effect of high voltage and fast switching on motor insulation and bearings, partial discharge inception voltage measurement under different environmental conditions. Findings of all these studies are summarized in this report.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Fusion Energy Research at Idaho National Laboratory: Experimentation and Simulation to Support Safety and Rapid Technology Development

Research into fusion energy is growing rapidly, responding to a call for sustainable sources of energy to replace fossil fuels and mitigate climate change. Within the United States, at least, researchers are also responding to the “Bold Decadal Vision” proposed by the White House, seeking to have a commercially relevant fusion pilot plant deployed within a decade. Before this can become a reality, many Fusion Science & Technology (FS&T) gaps remain. For over 45 years, Idaho National Laboratory has been at the forefront of addressing these FS&T gaps in the context of fusion safety and technology via the operation of world-leading experimental facilities within the Safety and Tritium Applied Research (STAR) Facility. Here, INL focuses on the tritium fuel cycle, conceptual system design studies, risk assessment, waste management, and materials safety. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) has also been a component of this portfolio of research, but, early on, focused on individual systems. Since 2019, active development and research on integrated whole device modeling tools based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework has been undertaken. This has culminated in a MOOSE-based version of the Tritium Migration and Analysis Program (TMAP), an INL code historically focused on tritium permeation and trapping within fusion systems. More recently, INL Laboratory Directed Research and Development funds have been used to create the Fusion ENergy Integrated multiphys-X (FENIX) code focused on scrape-off layer plasma physics and the first wall of a magnetically confined fusion device. This talk will focus on an overview of INL activities in the FS&T research area, with a particular focus on recent M&S activities and results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

From Subsurface to System: Offshore CCS Development for the Northeastern U.S. Atlantic Shelf

This study evaluated offshore carbon sequestration potential and infrastructure design along the mid-north Atlantic outer continental shelf, addressing the limited onshore storage options in the northeastern U.S. The objective was to define viable CCS pathways by integrating geological characterization, reservoir modeling, and system-level engineering for decarbonizing regional industrial sources. The work was conducted under US DOE grant FE0032407 for the Regional Initiatives and builds on a previous prospective resources assessment project by Battelle.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Business Case Evaluation of Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) Technology: A Promising Technology for Natural Gas Reforming with Integrated CO2 Capture

Hydrogen is essential in the transition to sustainable energy, and developing low-carbon production methods is a key research focus. Traditional steam methane reforming (SMR) dominates the hydrogen industry but contributes substantially to CO2 emissions. In response, Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) has emerged as a novel process that integrates carbon capture and utilizes process heat more efficiently. Unlike other reforming methods, GSR consolidates oxidation and reduction reactions within a single reactor, which minimizes external energy inputs and simplifies scaling. Like conventional steam methane reforming (SMR), GSR can be integrated with water-gas shift and pressure swing adsorption units for pure hydrogen production. This work presents a comprehensive business case analysis of GSR technology based on experimental results in Technology Readiness Level 3, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Techno-Economic (TEA) evaluation incorporating ASPEN Plus process modeling considering different configurations and energy scenarios. The TEA incorporates data from kinetic experiments from various catalysts to evaluate the GSR process under various conditions. The goal of this work is to evaluate GSR’s potential to serve as a low-carbon alternative to SMR, focusing on global warming potential and additional impact categories to evaluate a wide spectrum of environmental impacts. Comparative assessments were conducted with SMR, chemical loop reforming (CLR), and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis to explore trade-offs across environmental metrics. The environmental impact assessment of this work encompasses the entire hydrogen production lifecycle from raw material extraction to plant decommissioning, using a cradle-to-gate boundary. Preliminary findings highlight that GSR, when integrated with low-carbon energy sources, could significantly reduce environmental impacts, making it a promising candidate for low-carbon hydrogen infrastructure. The insights from this business case evaluation aim to guide industry in scale-up and commercialization of this promising clean energy technology.

03 NATURAL GAS↗