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DOE OSTI2014

Fast radio burst/gamma-ray burst cosmography

Recently, both theoretical arguments and observational evidence suggested that a small fraction of fast radio bursts (FRBs) could be associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). If such FRB/GRB association systems are commonly detected in the future, the combination of dispersion measures (DM) derived from FRBs and redshifts derived from GRBs makes these systems a plausible tool to conduct cosmography. We quantify uncertainties in deriving the redshift-dependent DM{sub IGM} as a function of z and test how well dark energy models can be constrained with Monte Carlo simulations. We show that with several tens of FRB/GRB systems potentially detected in a decade or so, one may reach reasonable constraints on wCDM models. When combined with Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) data, unprecedented constraints on the dark energy equation of state may be achieved, thanks to the prospects of detecting FRB/GRB systems at relatively high redshifts. The ratio between the mean value and luminosity distance (D {sub L}(z)) is insensitive to dark energy models. This gives the prospect of applying SN Ia data to calibrate using a relatively small sample of FRB/GRB systems, allowing a reliable constraint on the baryon inhomogeneity distribution as a function of redshift. The methodology developed in this paper can also be applied if the FRB redshifts can be measured by other means. Some caveats of putting this method into practice are also discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Three-dimensional simulations of pure deflagration models for thermonuclear supernovae

We present a systematic study of the pure deflagration model of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) using three-dimensional, high-resolution, full-star hydrodynamical simulations, nucleosynthetic yields calculated using Lagrangian tracer particles, and light curves calculated using radiation transport. We evaluate the simulations by comparing their predicted light curves with many observed SNe Ia using the SALT2 data-driven model and find that the simulations may correspond to under-luminous SNe Iax. We explore the effects of the initial conditions on our results by varying the number of randomly selected ignition points from 63 to 3500, and the radius of the centered sphere they are confined in from 128 to 384 km. We find that the rate of nuclear burning depends on the number of ignition points at early times, the density of ignition points at intermediate times, and the radius of the confining sphere at late times. The results depend primarily on the number of ignition points, but we do not expect this to be the case in general. The simulations with few ignition points release more nuclear energy E{sub nuc}, have larger kinetic energies E{sub K}, and produce more {sup 56}Ni than those with many ignition points, and differ in the distribution of {sup 56}Ni, Si, and C/O in the ejecta. For these reasons, the simulations with few ignition points exhibit higher peak B-band absolute magnitudes M{sub B} and light curves that rise and decline more quickly; their M{sub B} and light curves resemble those of under-luminous SNe Iax, while those for simulations with many ignition points are not.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Possible detection of the stellar donor or remnant for the type Iax supernova 2008ha

Type Iax supernovae (SNe Iax) are thermonuclear explosions that are related to SNe Ia, but are physically distinct. The most important differences are that SNe Iax have significantly lower luminosity (1%-50% that of typical SNe Ia), lower ejecta mass (∼0.1-0.5 M {sub ☉}), and may leave a bound remnant. The most extreme SN Iax is SN 2008ha, which peaked at M{sub V} = –14.2 mag, about 5 mag below that of typical SNe Ia. Here, we present Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images of UGC 12682, the host galaxy of SN 2008ha, taken 4.1 yr after the peak brightness of SN 2008ha. In these deep, high-resolution images, we detect a source coincident (0.86 HST pixels; 0.''043; 1.1σ) with the position of SN 2008ha with M {sub F814W} = –5.4 mag. We determine that this source is unlikely to be a chance coincidence, but that scenario cannot be completely ruled out. If this source is directly related to SN 2008ha, it is either the luminous bound remnant of the progenitor white dwarf (WD) or its companion star. The source is consistent with being an evolved >3 M {sub ☉} initial mass star, and is significantly redder than the SN Iax 2012Z progenitor system, the first detected progenitor system for a thermonuclear SN. If this source is the companion star for SN 2008ha, there is a diversity in SN Iax progenitor systems, perhaps related to the diversity in SN Iax explosions. If the source is the bound remnant of the WD, it must have expanded significantly. Regardless of the nature of this source, we constrain the progenitor system of SN 2008ha to have an age of <80 Myr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Constraints on the progenitor system and the environs of SN 2014J from deep radio observations

We report deep EVN and eMERLIN observations of the Type Ia SN 2014J in the nearby galaxy M82. Our observations represent, together with JVLA observations of SNe 2011fe and 2014J, the most sensitive radio studies of Type Ia SNe ever. By combining data and a proper modeling of the radio emission, we constrain the mass-loss rate from the progenitor system of SN 2014J to M-dot ≲7.0×10{sup −10} M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} (for a wind speed of 100 km s{sup –1}). If the medium around the supernova is uniform, then n {sub ISM} ≲ 1.3 cm{sup –3}, which is the most stringent limit for the (uniform) density around a Type Ia SN. Our deep upper limits favor a double-degenerate (DD) scenario—involving two WD stars—for the progenitor system of SN 2014J, as such systems have less circumstellar gas than our upper limits. By contrast, most single-degenerate (SD) scenarios, i.e., the wide family of progenitor systems where a red giant, main-sequence, or sub-giant star donates mass to an exploding WD, are ruled out by our observations. (While completing our work, we noticed that a paper by Margutti et al. was submitted to The Astrophysical Journal. From a non-detection of X-ray emission from SN 2014J, the authors obtain limits of M-dot ≲1.2×10{sup −9} M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1} (for a wind speed of 100 km s{sup –1}) and n {sub ISM} ≲ 3.5 cm{sup –3}, for the ρ∝r {sup –2} wind and constant density cases, respectively. As these limits are less constraining than ours, the findings by Margutti et al. do not alter our conclusions. The X-ray results are, however, important to rule out free-free and synchrotron self-absorption as a reason for the radio non-detections.) Our estimates on the limits on the gas density surrounding SN2011fe, using the flux density limits from Chomiuk et al., agree well with their results. Although we discuss the possibilities of an SD scenario passing observational tests, as well as uncertainties in the modeling of the radio emission, the evidence from SNe 2011fe and 2014J points in the direction of a DD scenario for both.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Thermonuclear supernovae: probing magnetic fields by positrons and late-time IR line profiles

We show the importance of γ and positron transport for the formation of late-time spectra in Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The goal is to study the imprint of magnetic fields (B) on late-time IR line profiles, particularly the [Fe II] feature at 1.644 μm, which becomes prominent two to three months after the explosion. As a benchmark, we use the explosion of a Chandrasekhar mass (M {sub Ch}) white dwarf (WD) and, specifically, a delayed detonation model that can reproduce the light curves and spectra for a Branch-normal SN Ia. We assume WDs with initial magnetic surface fields between 1 and 10{sup 9} G. We discuss large-scale dipole and small-scale magnetic fields. We show that positron transport effects must be taken into account for the interpretation of emission features starting at about one to two years after maximum light, depending on the size of B. The [Fe II] line profile and its evolution with time can be understood in terms of the overall energy input by radioactive decay and the transition from a γ-ray to a positron-dominated regime. We find that the [Fe II] line at 1.644 μm can be used to analyze the overall chemical and density structure of the exploding WD up to day 200 without considering B. At later times, positron transport and magnetic field effects become important. After about day 300, the line profile allows one to probe the size of the B-field. The profile becomes sensitive to the morphology of B at about day 500. In the presence of a large-scale dipole field, a broad line is produced in M {sub Ch} mass explosions that may appear flat-topped or rounded depending on the inclination at which the SN is observed. Small or no directional dependence of the spectra is found for small-scale B. We note that narrow-line profiles require central {sup 56}Ni as shown in our previous studies. Persistent broad-line, flat-topped profiles require high-density burning, which is the signature of a WD close to M {sub Ch}. Good time coverage is required to separate the effects of optical depth, the size and morphology of B, and the aspect angle of the observer. The spectra require a resolution of about 500 km s{sup –1} and a signal-to-noise ratio of about 20%. Two other strong near-IR spectral features at about 1.5 and 1.8 μm are used to demonstrate the importance of line blending, which may invalidate a kinematic interpretation of emission lines. Flat-topped line profiles between 300 and 400 days have been observed and reported in the literature. They lend support for M {sub Ch} mass explosions in at least some cases and require magnetic fields equal to or in excess of 10{sup 6} G. We briefly discuss the effects of the size and morphology of B on light curves, as well as limitations. We argue that line profiles are a more direct measurement of B than light curves because they measure both the distribution of {sup 56}Ni and the redistribution of the energy input by positrons rather than the total energy input. Finally, we discuss possible mechanisms for the formation of high B-fields and the limitations of our analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Superluminous supernovae as standardizable candles and high-redshift distance probes

We investigate the use of type Ic superluminous supernovae (SLSN Ic) as standardizable candles and distance indicators. Their appeal as cosmological probes stems from their remarkable peak luminosities, hot blackbody temperatures, and bright rest-frame ultraviolet emission. We present a sample of 16 published SLSN, from redshifts 0.1 to 1.2, and calculate accurate K corrections to determine uniform magnitudes in 2 synthetic rest-frame filter bandpasses with central wavelengths at 400 nm and 520 nm. At 400 nm, we find an encouragingly low scatter in their uncorrected, raw mean magnitudes with M(400) = –21.86 ± 0.35 mag for the full sample of 16 objects. We investigate the correlation between their decline rates and peak magnitude and find that the brighter events appear to decline more slowly. In a manner similar to the Phillips relation for type Ia SNe (SNe Ia), we define a ΔM {sub 20} decline relation. This correlates peak magnitude and decline over 20 days and can reduce the scatter in standardized peak magnitudes to ±0.22 mag. We further show that M(400) appears to have a strong color dependence. Redder objects are fainter and also become redder faster. Using this peak magnitudecolor evolution relation, a surprisingly low scatter of between ±0.08 mag and ±0.13 mag can be found in peak magnitudes, depending on sample selection. However, we caution that only 8 to 10 objects currently have enough data to test this peak magnitudecolor evolution relation. We conclude that SLSN Ic are promising distance indicators in the high-redshift universe in regimes beyond those possible with SNe Ia. Although the empirical relationships are encouraging, the unknown progenitor systems, how they may evolve with redshift, and the uncertain explosion physics are of some concern. The two major measurement uncertainties are the limited numbers of low-redshift, well-studied objects available to test these relationships and internal dust extinction in the host galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

The initiation and propagation of helium detonations in white dwarf envelopes

Detonations in helium-rich envelopes surrounding white dwarfs have garnered attention as triggers of faint thermonuclear '.Ia' supernovae and double detonation Type Ia supernovae. However, recent studies have found that the minimum size of a hotspot that can lead to a helium detonation is comparable to, or even larger than, the white dwarf's pressure scale height, casting doubt on the successful ignition of helium detonations in these systems. In this paper, we examine the previously neglected effects of C/O pollution and a full nuclear reaction network, and we consider hotspots with spatially constant pressure in addition to constant density hotspots. We find that the inclusion of these effects significantly decreases the minimum hotspot size for helium-rich detonation ignition, making detonations far more plausible during turbulent shell convection or during double white dwarf mergers. The increase in burning rate also decreases the minimum shell mass in which a helium detonation can successfully propagate and alters the composition of the shell's burning products. The ashes of these low-mass shells consist primarily of silicon, calcium, and unburned helium and metals and may explain the high-velocity spectral features observed in most Type Ia supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Are models for core-collapse supernova progenitors consistent with the properties of supernova remnants?

The recent discovery that the Fe–K line luminosities and energy centroids observed in nearby supernova remnants are a strong discriminant of both progenitor type and circumstellar environment has implications for our understanding of supernova progenitor evolution. Using models for the chemical composition of core-collapse supernova (CCSN) ejecta, we model the dynamics and thermal X-ray emission from shocked ejecta and circumstellar material, modeled as an r{sup −2} wind, to ages of 3000 yr. We compare the X-ray spectra expected from these models to observations made with the Suzaku satellite. We also model the dynamics and X-ray emission from Type Ia progenitor models. We find a clear distinction in Fe–K line energy centroid between core-collapse and Type Ia models. The CCSN models predict higher Fe–K line centroid energies than the Type Ia models, in agreement with observations. We argue that the higher line centroids are a consequence of the increased densities found in the circumstellar environment created by the expansion of the slow-moving wind from the massive progenitors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Detection of a light echo from the otherwise normal SN 2007af

We present the discovery of a light echo from SN 2007af, a normal Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) in NGC 5584. Hubble Space Telescope images taken three years post explosion reveal two separate echoes: an outer echo and an extended central region, which we propose to be an inner echo for which details are unresolved. Multiple images were obtained in the F160W, F350LP, F555W, and F814W using the Wide Field Camera 3. If the outer echo is produced by an interstellar dust sheet perpendicular to the line of sight, it is located ∼800 pc in front of the SN. The dust for the inner echo is 0.45 pc < d<90 pc away from the SN. The inner echo color is consistent with typical interstellar dust wavelength-dependent scattering cross-sections, while the outer echo is redder than predicted. Both dust sheets, if in the foreground, are optically thin for scattering, and the outer echo sheet thickness is consistent with the inferred extinction from peak brightness. Whether the inner echo is from interstellar or circumstellar dust is ambiguous. Overall, the echo characteristics are quite similar to previously observed SN Ia echoes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A MAGNIFIED GLANCE INTO THE DARK SECTOR: PROBING COSMOLOGICAL MODELS WITH STRONG LENSING IN A1689

In this paper we constrain four alternative models to the late cosmic acceleration in the universe: Chevallier–Polarski–Linder (CPL), interacting dark energy (IDE), Ricci holographic dark energy (HDE), and modified polytropic Cardassian (MPC). Strong lensing (SL) images of background galaxies produced by the galaxy cluster Abell 1689 are used to test these models. To perform this analysis we modify the LENSTOOL lens modeling code. The value added by this probe is compared with other complementary probes: Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia), baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), and cosmic microwave background (CMB). We found that the CPL constraints obtained for the SL data are consistent with those estimated using the other probes. The IDE constraints are consistent with the complementary bounds only if large errors in the SL measurements are considered. The Ricci HDE and MPC constraints are weak, but they are similar to the BAO, SN Ia, and CMB estimations. We also compute the figure of merit as a tool to quantify the goodness of fit of the data. Our results suggest that the SL method provides statistically significant constraints on the CPL parameters but is weak for those of the other models. Finally, we show that the use of the SL measurements in galaxy clusters is a promising and powerful technique to constrain cosmological models. The advantage of this method is that cosmological parameters are estimated by modeling the SL features for each underlying cosmology. These estimations could be further improved by SL constraints coming from other galaxy clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

First Results from the La Silla-Quest Supernova Survey and the Carnegie Supernova Project

The La Silla/QUEST Variability Survey (LSQ) and the Carnegie Supernova Project (CSP II) are collaborating to discover and obtain photometric light curves for a large sample of low-redshift (z < 0.1) Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The supernovae are discovered in the LSQ survey using the 1 m ESO Schmidt telescope at the La Silla Observatory with the 10 square degree QUEST camera. The follow-up photometric observations are carried out using the 1 m Swope telescope and the 2.5 m du Pont telescopes at the Las Campanas Observatory. This paper describes the survey, discusses the methods of analyzing the data, and presents the light curves for the first 31 SNe Ia obtained in the survey. The SALT 2.4 supernova light-curve fitter was used to analyze the photometric data, and the Hubble diagram for this first sample is presented. Furthermore, the measurement errors for these supernovae averaged 4%, and their intrinsic spread was 14%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Supernovae as probes of cosmic parameters: estimating the bias from under-dense lines of sight

Correctly interpreting observations of sources such as type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) require knowledge of the power spectrum of matter on AU scales — which is very hard to model accurately. Because under-dense regions account for much of the volume of the universe, light from a typical source probes a mean density significantly below the cosmic mean. The relative sparsity of sources implies that there could be a significant bias when inferring distances of SNe Ia, and consequently a bias in cosmological parameter estimation. While the weak lensing approximation should in principle give the correct prediction for this, linear perturbation theory predicts an effectively infinite variance in the convergence for ultra-narrow beams. We attempt to quantify the effect typically under-dense lines of sight might have in parameter estimation by considering three alternative methods for estimating distances, in addition to the usual weak lensing approximation. We find in each case this not only increases the errors in the inferred density parameters, but also introduces a bias in the posterior value.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The need for accurate redshifts in supernova cosmology

Recent papers have shown that a small systematic redshift shift (Δ z ∼ 10{sup −5}) in measurements of type Ia supernovae can cause a significant bias (∼1%) in the recovery of cosmological parameters. Such a redshift shift could be caused, for example, by a gravitational redshift due to the density of our local environment. The sensitivity of supernova data to redshift shifts means supernovae make excellent probes of inhomogeneities. We therefore invert the analysis, and try to diagnose the nature of our local gravitational environment by fitting for Δ z as an extra free parameter alongside the usual cosmological parameters. Using the Joint Light-curve SN Ia dataset we find the best fit includes a systematic redshift shift of Δ z = (2.6{sup +2.7}{sub −2.8}) × 10{sup −4}. This is a larger shift than would be expected due to gravitational redshifts in a standard Λ-Cold Dark Matter universe (though still consistent with zero), and would correspond to a monopole Doppler shift of about 100 km s{sup −1} moving away from the Milky-Way. However, since most supernova measurements are made to a redshift precision of no better than 10{sup −3}, it is possible that a systematic error smaller than the statistical error remains in the data and is responsible for the shift; or that it is an insignificant statistical fluctuation. We find that when Δ z is included as a free parameter while fitting to the JLA SN Ia data, the constraints on the matter density shifts to Ω {sub m} = 0.313{sup +0.042}{sub −0.040}, bringing it into better agreement with the CMB cosmological parameter constraints from Planck. A positive Δ z ∼ 2.6×10{sup −4} would also cause us to overestimate the supernova measurement of Hubble's constant by Δ H {sub 0} ∼ 1 kms{sup −1}Mpc{sup −1}. However this overestimation should diminish as one increases the low-redshift cutoff, and this is not seen in the most recent data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Probing the cosmic distance duality relation using time delay lenses

The construction of the cosmic distance-duality relation (CDDR) has been widely studied. However, its consistency with various new observables remains a topic of interest. We present a new way to constrain the CDDR η( z ) using different dynamic and geometric properties of strong gravitational lenses (SGL) along with SNe Ia observations. We use a sample of 102 SGL with the measurement of corresponding velocity dispersion σ{sub 0} and Einstein radius θ {sub E} . In addition, we also use a dataset of 12 two image lensing systems containing the measure of time delay Δ t between source images. Jointly these two datasets give us the angular diameter distance D {sub A} {sub ol} of the lens. Further, for luminosity distance, we use the 740 observations from JLA compilation of SNe Ia. To study the combined behavior of these datasets we use a model independent method, Gaussian Process (GP). We also check the efficiency of GP by applying it on simulated datasets, which are generated in a phenomenological way by using realistic cosmological error bars. Finally, we conclude that the combined bounds from the SGL and SNe Ia observation do not favor any deviation of CDDR and are in concordance with the standard value (η=1) within 2σ confidence region, which further strengthens the theoretical acceptance of CDDR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 VI: cosmological constraints from the measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations

We present cosmological results from the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in galaxy, quasar and Lyman-α forest tracers from the first year of observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), to be released in the DESI Data Release 1. DESI BAO provide robust measurements of the transverse comoving distance and Hubble rate, or their combination, relative to the sound horizon, in seven redshift bins from over 6 million extragalactic objects in the redshift range 0.1 < z < 4.2. To mitigate confirmation bias, a blind analysis was implemented to measure the BAO scales. DESI BAO data alone are consistent with the standard flat ΛCDM cosmological model with a matter density Ω m =0.295±0.015. Paired with a baryon density prior from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and the robustly measured acoustic angular scale from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), DESI requires H 0 =(68.52±0.62) km s -1 Mpc -1 . In conjunction with CMB anisotropies from Planck and CMB lensing data from Planck and ACT, we find Ω m =0.307± 0.005 and H 0 =(67.97±0.38) km s -1 Mpc -1 . Extending the baseline model with a constant dark energy equation of state parameter w, DESI BAO alone requirew=-0.99 +0.15 -0.13 . In models with a time-varying dark energy equation of state parametrised by w 0 and w a , combinations of DESI with CMB or with type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) individually prefer w 0 > -1 and w a < 0. This preference is 2.6σ for the DESI+CMB combination, and persists or grows when SN Ia are added in, giving results discrepant with the ΛCDM model at the 2.5σ, 3.5σ or 3.9σ levels for the addition of the Pantheon+, Union3, or DES-SN5YR supernova datasets respectively. For the flat ΛCDM model with the sum of neutrino mass ∑ m ν free, combining the DESI and CMB data yields an upper limit ∑ m ν < 0.072 (0.113) eV at 95% confidence for a ∑ m ν > 0 (∑ m ν > 0.059) eV prior. These neutrino-mass constraints are substantially relaxed if the background dynamics are allowed to deviate from flat ΛCDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II Supernova Survey

This paper describes the data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II (SDSS-II) Supernova Survey conducted between 2005 and 2007. Light curves, spectra, classifications, and ancillary data are presented for 10,258 variable and transient sources discovered through repeat ugriz imaging of SDSS Stripe 82, a 300 deg2 area along the celestial equator. This data release is comprised of all transient sources brighter than r~22.5 mag with no history of variability prior to 2004. Dedicated spectroscopic observations were performed on a subset of 889 transients, as well as spectra for thousands of transient host galaxies using the SDSS-III BOSS spectrographs. Photometric classifications are provided for the candidates with good multi-color light curves that were not observed spectroscopically. From these observations, 4607 transients are either spectroscopically confirmed, or likely to be, supernovae, making this the largest sample of supernova candidates ever compiled. We present a new method for SN host-galaxy identification and derive host-galaxy properties including stellar masses, star-formation rates, and the average stellar population ages from our SDSS multi-band photometry. We derive SALT2 distance moduli for a total of 1443 SN Ia with spectroscopic redshifts as well as photometric redshifts for a further 677 purely-photometric SN Ia candidates. Using the spectroscopically confirmed subset of the three-year SDSS-II SN Ia sample and assuming a flat Lambda-CDM cosmology, we determine Omega_M = 0.315 +/- 0.093 (statistical error only) and detect a non-zero cosmological constant at 5.7 sigmas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Extending Supernova Spectral Templates for Next-generation Space Telescope Observations

Empirical models of supernova (SN) spectral energy distributions (SEDs) are widely used for SN survey simulations and photometric classifications. The existing library of SED models has excellent optical templates, but limited, poorly constrained coverage of ultraviolet (UV) and infrared (IR) wavelengths. However, both regimes are critical for the design and operation of future SN surveys, particularly at IR wavelengths that will be accessible with the James Webb Space Telescope and the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope. We create a public repository of improved empirical SED templates using a sampling of Type Ia and core-collapse (CC) photometric light curves to extend the Type Ia parameterized SALT2 model and a set of SN Ib, SN Ic, and SN II SED templates into the UV and near-IR. We apply this new repository of extrapolated SN SED models to examine how future surveys can discriminate between CC and Type Ia SNe at UV and IR wavelengths, and present an open-source software package written in Python, SNSEDextend, that enables users to generate their own extrapolated SEDs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate change and federal aid disbursements after Hurricane Harvey: an extreme event attribution analysis

The role climate change plays in increasing the burden placed on governments and insurers to pay for recovery has not been extensively explored and is the focus of this study. This study examines the impacts of climate change attributed flooding on federal disaster aid disbursement in Harris County, Texas following Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Our approach uses flood models to estimate the amount of flood damages attributable and not attributable to climate change under two climate change attribution scenarios from peer reviewed studies: 20% and 38% increases in rainfall associated with the hurricane due to climate change. These estimates are combined with census tract-level disbursement data for FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the Individual Assistance (IA) part of the Individuals and Households Program. We employ spatial lag regression models with direct and spatial spillover effects to analyze the relationship between a tract’s flood damages—both attributed and not attributed to climate change—and federal disaster aid. We find that both types of flood damage shape federal aid disbursements, but that climate change attributed damages tend to have larger effect sizes (elasticities) especially for IA. Specifically, for a 1% increase in additional climate change attributed damages per household in a census tract (under the 20% scenario), expected NFIP levels in that census tract are 0.26% higher and IA levels are 0.3% higher. Implications center on federal funding in an era of climate change.

FEMA↗