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At least 703 records · Page 39

Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32◦ degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

agriculture↗

An Innovative Concept for Spacebased Lidar Measurement of Ocean Carbon Biomass

Beam attenuation coefficient, c, provides an important optical index of plankton standing stocks, such as phytoplankton biomass and total particulate carbon concentration. Unfortunately, c has proven difficult to quantify through remote sensing. Here, we introduce an innovative approach for estimating c using lidar depolarization measurements and diffuse attenuation coefficients from ocean color products or lidar measurements of Brillouin scattering. The new approach is based on a theoretical formula established from Monte Carlo simulations that links the depolarization ratio of sea water to the ratio of diffuse attenuation Kd and beam attenuation C (i.e., a multiple scattering factor). On July 17, 2014, the CALIPSO satellite was tilted 30Âdeg off-nadir for one nighttime orbit in order to minimize ocean surface backscatter and demonstrate the lidar ocean subsurface measurement concept from space. Depolarization ratios of ocean subsurface backscatter are measured accurately. Beam attenuation coefficients computed from the depolarization ratio measurements compare well with empirical estimates from ocean color measurements. We further verify the beam attenuation coefficient retrievals using aircraft-based high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) data that are collocated with in-water optical measurements.

Hu, Yongxiang↗

A Combined Solar and Geomagnetic Index for Thermospheric Climate

Infrared radiation from nitric oxide (NO) at 5.3 Â is a primary mechanism by which the thermosphere cools to space. The SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite has been measuring thermospheric cooling by NO for over 13 years. Physically, changes in NO emission are due to changes in temperature, atomic oxygen, and the NO density. These physical changes however are driven by changes in solar irradiance and changes in geomagnetic conditions. We show that the SABER time series of globally integrated infrared power (Watts) radiated by NO can be replicated accurately by a multiple linear regression fit using the F10.7, Ap, and Dst indices. This fit enables several fundamental properties of NO cooling to be determined as well as their variability with time, permitting reconstruction of the NO power time series back nearly 70 years with extant databases of these indices. The relative roles of solar ultraviolet and geomagnetic processes in determining the NO cooling are derived and shown to be solar cycle dependent. This reconstruction provides a long-term time series of an integral radiative constraint on thermospheric climate that can be used to test climate models.

Hunt, Linda↗

Investigating Space Weather Events Impacting the Spitzer Space Telescope

Our understanding of the dynamical process in the space environment has increased dramatically. A relatively new field of study called "Space Weather" has emerged in the last few decades. Fundamental to the study of space weather is an understanding of how space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections impact spacecraft in varying orbits and distances around the Sun. Specialized space weather satellite monitoring systems operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) allow scientists to predict space weather events affecting critical systems on and orbiting the Earth. However, the Spitzer Space Telescope is in an orbit far outside the areas covered by those space weather monitoring systems. This poses a challenge for the Spitzer's Mission Operations Team in determining whether space weather events affect Spitzer.

solar flare↗

Observations of Space Weather and Space Climate Over the Past 15 Years From SABER (And Longer!)

The global infrared (IR) energy budget of the thermosphere has been reconstructed back 70 years (to 1947). IR cooling, integrated over a solar cycle, is relatively constant over the 5 complete cycles (19 -23) studied. Result implies that solar energy (particles and photons) has similar, small (< 7%) variation from one cycle to next. From Earth's upper atmosphere perspective, solar cycles are really more similar than different, over their length. No consistent relationship between peak of IR cooling and sunspot number peak. Results submitted to GRL 8/2016.

Mlynczak, Marty↗

Vibration Damping Circuit Card Assembly

A vibration damping circuit card assembly includes a populated circuit card having a mass M. A closed metal container is coupled to a surface of the populated circuit card at approximately a geometric center of the populated circuit card. Tungsten balls fill approximately 90% of the metal container with a collective mass of the tungsten balls being approximately (0.07) M.

Hunt, Ronald Allen↗

STEREO Superior Solar Conjunction Mission Phase

With its long duration and high gain antenna (HGA) feed thermal constraint; the NASA Solar-TErestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) solar conjunction mission phase is quite unique to deep space operations. Originally designed for a two year heliocentric orbit mission to primarily study coronal mass ejection propagation, after 8 years of continuous science data collection, the twin STEREO observatories entered the solar conjunction mission phase, for which they were not designed. Nine months before entering conjunction, an unforeseen thermal constraint threatened to stop daily communications and science data collection for 15months. With a 3.5 month long communication blackout from the superior solar conjunction, without ground commands, each observatory will reset every 3 days, resulting in 35 system resets at an Earth range of 2 AU. As the observatories will be conjoined for the first time in 8 years, a unique opportunity for calibrating the same instruments on identical spacecraft will occur. As each observatory has lost redundancy, and with only a limited fidelity hardware simulator, how can the new observatory configuration be adequately and safely tested on each spacecraft? Without ground commands, how would a 3-axis stabilized spacecraft safely manage the ever accumulating system momentum without using propellant for thrusters? Could science data still be collected for the duration of the solar conjunction mission phase? Would the observatories survive? In its second extended mission, operational resources were limited at best. This paper discusses the solutions to the STEREO superior solar conjunction operational challenges, science data impact, testing, mission operations, results, and lessons learned while implementing.

STEREO↗

High Ice Water Concentrations in the 19 August 2015 Coastal Mesoconvective System

During August 2015, NASA's DC-8 research aircraft was flown into High Ice Water Content (HIWC) events as part of a three-week campaign to collect airborne radar data and to obtain measurements from microphysical probes. Goals for this flight campaign included improved characterization of HIWC events, especially from an airborne radar perspective. This paper focuses on one of the flight days, in which a coastal mesoscale convective system (MCS) was investigated for HIWC conditions. The system appears to have been maintained by bands of convection flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico. These convective bands were capped by a large cloud canopy, which masks the underlying structure if viewed from an infrared sensing satellite. The DC-8 was equipped with an IsoKinetic Probe that measured ice concentrations of up to 2.3 g m(exp -3) within the cloud canopy of this system. Sustained measurements of ice crystals with concentrations exceeding 1 g m(exp -3) were encountered for up to ten minutes of flight time. Airborne Radar reflectivity factors were found to be weak within these regions of high ice water concentrations, suggesting that Radar detection of HIWC would be a challenging endeavor. This case is then investigated using a three-dimensional numerical cloud model. Profiles of ice water concentrations and radar reflectivity factor demonstrate similar magnitudes and scales between the flight measurements and model simulation. Also discussed are recent modifications to the numerical model's ice-microphysics that are based on measurements during the flight campaign. The numerical model and its updated ice-microphysics are further validated with a simulation of a well-known case of a supercell hailstorm measured during the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment. Differences in HIWC between the continental supercell and the coastal MCS are discussed.

Proctor, Fred H.↗

The Uncertainty of Crop Yield Projections Is Reduced by Improved Temperature Response Functions

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for is greater than 50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 C to 33 C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

Wang, Enli↗