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At least 703 records · Page 39

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Degradation in photovoltaic encapsulation strength of attachment: Results of the first PVQAT TG5 artificial weathering study

Delamination of the encapsulant in photovoltaic (PV) module technology results in immediate optical loss and may enable subsequent corrosion or mechanical damage. The effects of artificial weathering were not previously known; therefore, an empirical study was performed to survey the factors most affecting adhesion, including the ultraviolet (UV) source (ie, Xe or fluorescent lamp[s]), the optical filters for the lamp, the chamber temperature, and the relative humidity. Natural weathering was also performed at locations, including the following: Golden, Colorado; Miami, Florida; Phoenix, Arizona; QiongHai, China; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; and Turpan, China. Specimens were constructed using a laminated glass/poly (ethylene-co-vinyl acetate)/glass geometry. The compressive shear test (CST) was used to quantify the mechanical strength of attachment, taken as a proxy for adhesion. The fractography of select specimens (including cross-sectional optical microscopy) was used to verify the failure mode (delamination or decohesion). Additional analysis of the local solar spectrum as well as the specimen temperature was performed to interpret the results of natural weathering. The goals of this study include to identify the most significant stressors, clarify where strong coupling may occur between stressors, and validate accelerated test results relative to natural weathering. The importance of specimen conditioning (for moisture) and hygrometric degradation as well as the effects of UV degradation are identified in this paper.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Drivers for the cracking of multilayer polyamide‐based backsheets in field photovoltaic modules: In‐depth degradation mapping analysis

Abstract There is a lack of understanding on the root cause of cracking of photovoltaic (PV) backsheets due to the challenge of multilayer characterization and the complicated failure modes at the submodule level. In this work, the in‐depth degradation mapping of field‐exposed polyamide‐based (PA‐based) PV module backsheets was studied, with the major focus on the identification of underlying drivers for the through cracking (in between the solar cells). PV modules were retrieved from five different locations, comprising a variety of climates, including humid subtropical, hot‐summer Mediterranean, tropical savanna climate, and hot arid. A suite of microscale cross‐sectional characterizations, including chemical changes, fluorescence intensity, and modulus as a function of distance from the air surface of the backsheet, was performed. Results showed more advanced signs of degradation of the inner layer than the outer layer in the cracking region. Increases in the modulus were identified as the major indicator for the cracking. Moreover, a rudimentary test by immersion in acetic acid, which forms during photodegradation of the ethylene‐vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) encapsulant, showed the first‐time direct evidence that acetic acid can largely accelerate the chemical degradation and facilitate the cracking of PA inner layer. This study suggests that the field cracking of PA‐based backsheet can be attributed to the combined effects of chemical degradation and physical reorganization (chemi‐crystallization) under cyclic thermomechanical stresses. Therefore, it is important to consider effects of local microclimates and interlayer infection to understand the heterogeneous nature of backsheet failures.

Lyu, Yadong↗

Advancing reliability assessments of photovoltaic modules and materials using combined-accelerated stress testing

Previously undiscovered failure modes in photovoltaic (PV) modules continue to emerge in field installations despite passing protocols for design qualification and quality assurance. Failure to detect these modes prior to widespread use could be attributed to the limitations of present-day standard accelerated stress tests (ASTs), which are primarily designed to identify known degradation or failure modes at the time of development by applying simultaneous or sequential stress factors (usually two at most). Here, we introduce an accelerated testing method known as the combined-accelerated stress test (C-AST), which simultaneously combines multiple stress factors of the natural environment. Simultaneous combination of multiple stress factors allows for improved identification of failure modes with better ability to detect modes not known a priori. A demonstration experiment was conducted that reproduced the field-observed cracking of polyamide- (PA-) and polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF)–based backsheet films, a failure mode that was not detected by current design qualification and quality assurance testing requirements. In this work, a two-phase testing protocol was implemented. The first cycle (“Tropical”) is a predominantly high-humidity and high-temperature test designed to replicate harsh tropical climates. The second cycle (“Multi-season”) was designed to replicate drier and more temperate conditions found in continental or desert climates. Testing was conducted on 2 × 2-cell crystalline-silicon cell miniature modules constructed with both ultraviolet (UV)–transmitting and UV-blocking encapsulants. Cracking failures were observed within a cumulative 120 days of the Tropical condition for one of the PA-based backsheets and after 84 days of Tropical cycle followed by 42 days of the Multi-season cycle for the PVDF-based backsheet, which are both consistent with failures seen in fielded modules. In addition to backsheet cracking, degradation modes were observed including solder/interconnect fatigue, various light-induced degradation modes, backsheet delamination, discoloration, corrosion, and cell cracking. The ability to simultaneously apply multiple stress factors may allow many of the test sequences within the standardized design qualification procedure to be performed using a single test setup.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Electrochemical mechanisms of leakage‐current in photovoltaic modules

Abstract This paper analyzes the mechanisms and pathways for leakage current flow observed in Si photovoltaic modules subjected to high temperature and humidity and a large voltage bias with respect to ground. The current inside of the frame is in the form of electron motion, but in the glass and polymer, it is in at least a large part attributable to the movement of ions. When the mode of current flow changes from electronic to ionic conduction, electrochemical reactions will take place at the interface. This can include reactions that produce volatile chemical species like H 2 , CO x , and O 2 , along with ionic species such as OH − and H 3 O + . Here, we see evidence of the importance of different charge carriers with different diffusion rates and the influence of electrochemical processes involved. The application of negative voltage to the cell circuit affects the resistivity of glass producing surfaces with poor conductivity but with some increases in the electrochemical potential producing complicated interactions that are important when the voltage is changed. In the polymer, there is the development of a space charge region and a chemical gradient providing two oppositional forces to current flow, which when released create a complicated discharge process. Here, we give a basic understanding of the charge/discharge of PV cells highlighting how the specific mechanisms are important in understanding some of the degradation processes in PV modules. We find that there is evidence of multiple significant charge carrier species with different diffusion time scales. The glass/polymer interface forms a depleted region of higher resistance after prolonged exposure to current. Charge also builds up at the polymer to cell antireflective coating interface and mostly flows to the gridlines to experience electrochemical reactions. These complexities result in non‐linear behavior where the apparent resistivities of the different layers change during charge/discharging processes, making the modeling of the current flow extremely difficult.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantifying optical loss of high-voltage degradation modes in photovoltaic modules using spectral analysis

The direct current bias for photovoltaic (PV) modules interconnected in series-strings may include both high voltage negative (“HV-”) and positive (“HV+”) polarity with respect to the electrical ground. Multiple degradation modes, resulting in quantifiable optical loss, were found to occur during HV-/HV+ sequential stress, including corrosion of the external glass surface, encapsulant delamination (at its interfaces with the glass and the PV cell), internal haze formation (resulting from a chemical interaction between the glass and the encapsulant), corrosion and migration of the gridlines, and corrosion of the silicon nitride (Si x N y ) antireflective coating on the cell. The effects of these separate modes were examined using monolithic (e.g., glass or PV cell) and laminated-coupon (glass/encapsulant/glass or glass/encapsulant/cell/encapsulant/backsheet) specimens. Characterizations during and after unbiased accelerated testing at 85°C/85% relative humidity included spectrophotometry, optical microscopy, electron microscopy, and ellipsometry. For some module components (i.e., the glass and the Si x N y coating), the optical performance was determined through iterative analysis of empirical measurements. Concentrating on just their spectral effect, a novel model was then developed to estimate the transfer of light to the PV cell and the return of light from the PV module with simultaneous degradation mechanisms, which was compared with a mini-module previously subjected to HV-/HV+ stress. Here the model suggests that one third of the current loss observed for the mini-module can be attributed to the optical degradation of the packaging materials. The dominant degradation modes include encapsulant delamination and corrosion of the Si x N y coating. Recommendations are given so that the optical model may be improved relative to accelerated testing and validated relative to field aging.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Susceptibility to polarization type potential induced degradation in commercial bifacial p-PERC PV modules

Potential induced degradation (PID) is a reliability issue affecting photovoltaic (PV) modules, mainly when PV strings operate under high voltages in hot/humid conditions. Polarization-type PID (PID-p) has been known to decrease module performance quickly. PID-p can be reduced or recovered under the light in some cases, but this effect, as expected, would be less pronounced on the rear side of bifacial PV modules receiving lower irradiance. As bifacial PV modules are projected to dominate the PV market within the next 10 years, it is crucial to understand the PID-p issue in bifacial modules better. In this study, we performed indoor PID testing to induce PID-p on 14 commercial bifacial p-PERC modules with three different module constructions from three manufacturers. Here, four rounds (+ve and –ve polarities for front and rear sides) of PID testing are done at 25°C, 54% relative humidity (RH) for 168 h using the aluminum foil method. Each module side (front cell side and back cell side) is tested individually under both negative and positive voltage bias. The results show that the highest degradation of 32% in maximum power (Pmax) at standard test conditions (1000 W/m 2 ) and 51% at low irradiance (200 W/m 2 ) has been observed in some cases. Recovery under sunlight is also done, and outcomes show a near-complete recovery in Pmax. This study presents an extensive experimental methodology and a detailed analysis to systematically and simultaneously/sequentially evaluate multiple construction types of bifacial modules to the PID-p susceptibility and recovery.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Predicting encapsulant delamination in photovoltaic modules bridging photochemical reaction kinetics and fracture mechanics

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) modules are subjected to environmental stressors (UV exposure, temperature, and humidity) that cause degradation within the encapsulant and its interfaces with adjacent glass and cell substrates. To save experimental time and to enable long‐term assessment with intensive degradation only taking place after many years, the development of predictive models is indispensable. Previous works have modeled the delamination of the ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) encapsulant/glass and encapsulant/cell interfaces under field aging conditions with fundamental photochemical degradation reactions that lead to molecular scission and loss of interfacial adhesion, characterized by the fracture resistance, G c . However, these models were fundamentally limited in that the following aspects were not incorporated: (i) molecular crosslinking in the field, (ii) synergistic autocatalytic interactions of degradation mechanisms, (iii) connection between degraded encapsulant structure and its mechanical properties, and (iv) rigorous treatment of the plasticity contribution to G c with finite element models. Here, we present a time‐dependent multiscale model that addresses these limitations and is applicable to a wide range of encapsulants and interfaces. For the reference EVA encapsulant and its interfaces with the glass and cell, the presented model predicts an initial rise in G c in the first 3 years of field aging from crosslinking, then a subsequent sharp decline from degradation mechanisms. We used nanoindentation to measure the changes in EVA mechanical properties over exposure time to tune the model parameters. The model predictions of G c and mechanical properties match with experimental data and show an improvement compared to previous models. The model can even predict switches in failure interfaces, such as the observed EVA/cell to EVA/glass transition. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis study by varying the degradation and crosslinking kinetic parameters to demonstrate their effects on G c . Model extensions to polyolefin elastomer‐ and silicone‐encapsulants and their interfaces are also demonstrated.

Liu, Kuan↗

A Spatially Resolved Evaluation of Accelerated Environmental Aging on Emerging Polypropylene-Based Photovoltaic Backsheets Using Raman Spectroscopy

For this work, accelerated aging was used to assess environmental degradation in emerging co-extruded polypropylene (PP)-based backsheets under three different environmental conditions (65°C/20% relative humidity (RH), 75°C/20% RH, and 75°C/50% RH). Although differential scanning calorimetry did not measure crystallinity changes with exposure, spatially resolved Raman spectroscopy identified crystallinity increases in the core layer of aged samples, indicating a heterogeneous postcrystallization process. The Raman results were in agreement with synchrotron-based microfocused wide-angle X-ray scattering measurements. Cross-sectional nanoindentation was used to correlate localized crystallinity shifts with changes in Young's modulus. A similar trend was found where increased modulus was measured in the core layer, supporting the relationship between modulus and crystallinity. Finally, dielectric characterization was used to assess the impact of these material property changes on performance. While changes in the backsheet material properties and dielectric performance were observed with accelerated aging, these shifts generally equilibrated with time, indicating overall stability in response to environmental stressors. Additionally, the identified heterogeneous material property changes indicate that spatially resolved crystallinity measurements may be a valuable early failure indicator to be used in the assessment of PV backsheet long-term durability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Long-Term Photovoltaic System Performance in Cold, Snowy Climates

As countries around the world transition towards renewable energy, there is increasing interest in using photovoltaic (PV) technologies to help decarbonize northern and alpine communities due to their scalability and affordability. However, a barrier to large-scale adoption of PV in cold climates is long-term performance uncertainty under snowfall, freeze-thaw cycles, low temperatures, and high winds. In this work, we provide a comprehensive review of published silicon degradation rates in cold Koppen-Geiger climate classifications of Dfb (humid continental), Dfc (subarctic), and ET (tundra). We first analyze the system degradation rates of three subarctic ground-mounted photovoltaic sites in North America using the RdTools year-on-year method: an Al-BSF double-axis tracking site in Fairbanks, Alaska (65degrees N); a PERC and silicon heterojunction bifacial vertical and south-tilted site in Fairbanks, Alaska; and a PERC south-facing fixed-tilt site in Fort Simpson, Northwest Territories (62degrees N). Degradation rates of these newly analyzed sites vary between -0.4%/year and -1.5%/year. Combining these data with previously reported cold climate degradation rates, we show that the distribution of cold climate degradation peaks at -0.1%/year to -0.2%/year but has a large tail with rates above -0.5%/year. The average reported cold climate degradation rate is -0.45%/year, whereas the median value is -0.33%/year. These results suggest that despite frequent freeze-thaw cycles and potential exposure to high wind and snow loads, PV systems in cold climates tend to degrade slower than PV systems in warmer climates. The limited sample size of reported degradation rates in cold climates (27) motivates the need for further data acquisition and monitoring efforts as new technologies are deployed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimization of anionic conductivity through the coexistence of ionomer cluster and backbone-backbone morphologies in anion exchange membranes

Random copolymers of poly(4-vinylpyridine) and polyisoprene were synthesized, and subsequently quaternized with 1-alkylbromides. The number of carbons on the pendant side-chain of the resultant comb-shaped polymer, n, ranged from 2-8. The comb-shaped polymers were crosslinked employing thiol-ene chemistry to give mechanically robust ion conducting membranes. Analysis by wide and medium-angle X-ray scattering show three morphology regimes that are dependent on the number of carbons on the pendant side-chains. When n = 2, ionomer cluster morphology was dominant, when n = 8 backbone-backbone morphology was dominant, and when n = 3-6, the membrane showed a coexistence of both ionomer cluster and backbone-backbone morphologies. Evaluation of the water uptake of the membranes showed a maximum water uptake per cation of 9.5 when n = 5 at 95% relative humidity (RH) and 60 degrees C. Finally, conductivity of the samples characterized by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy showed bromide conductivity as high as 110 mS/cm when n = 3 at 95% RH and 90 degrees C.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reflectometry with Polarized Neutrons on In Situ Grown Thin Films

Originating from the demand for obtaining depth-resolved magnetization profiles from thin films and heterostructures, polarized neutron reflectometry (PNR) has developed into a unique research tool, which also finds application in the analysis of superconducting or soft matter thin films. While certain in situ sample environments such as gas-loading or humidity cells were quickly realized after PNR first emerged, preparing and growing thin magnetic films directly in the neutron beam could only be realized in recent years. Herein, a dedicated insight is given on the history and development of in situ thin film growth capabilities for PNR, from early pioneering experiments to the present day. The scientific and technological challenges as well as the advances of neutron sources, neutronics, and data treatment that have led to its realization are highlighted together with the unique research opportunities that it provides and recently obtained experimental results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Moisture ingress in commercial steel drums: Water content determination, diffusion modelling and predicted permeation rates

Commercial steel drums underpin the global economy, playing a pivotal role in the storage and transportation of critical materials. Transported and stored materials, such as food, chemical and nuclear waste, can be sensitive to ambient conditions, particularly moisture that can enhance negative effects such as corrosion and material degradation. Although international standards and regulations are in place for the qualification of steel drums, there are no current testing requirements, established limits or boundaries for the permeation of moisture into the drums during transportation or storage. This work aims to provide insights into the moisture ingress over time into properly sealed steel drums and provides estimated moisture ingress rates over time through extrapolation. Water vapour transmission rate (WVTR) measurements through the gasket material at 10–40°C were 0.11–2.1 g/m 2 /day resulting in a permeation activation energy of 30.2 kJ/mol. Water sorption measurements and Karl Fischer titration (KFT) on ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) gasket material revealed a decrease in equilibrium moisture saturation with increasing temperature. KFT measurements also revealed the presence of moisture within the adhesive and drum wall after exposure to ambient conditions. KFT and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) show that moisture will desorb from the EPDM and drum wall after exposure to desiccating conditions, although a minimal amount of moisture will remain present. When sealed to the manufacturer's recommendations, the steel drums are effective in minimizing moisture ingress. In conclusion, in sealed empty drums, moisture ingress rates for 19-L drums were 0.4–1.5 mg/day at 25°C 15% relative humidity (RH) and increased to 7.1–8.8 mg/day at 40°C 90% RH, and moisture ingress rates for 210-L drums were 2.5 and 3.5 mg/day at field deployment conditions of 15.5°C 51.5% RH and 23°C 40% RH, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Composited structure of non-precipitating shallow cumulus clouds

The normalized distributions of thermodynamic and dynamical variables both within and outside shallow clouds are investigated through a composite algorithm using large-eddy simulations of oceanic and continental cases. The normalized magnitude is maximum near the cloud centre and decreases outwards. While relative humidity (RH) and cloud liquid water ( q l ) decrease smoothly to match the environment, the vertical velocity, virtual potential temperature (θ v ), and potential temperature (θ) perturbations have more complicated behaviour towards the cloud boundary. Below the inversion layer, θ' v becomes negative before the vertical velocity has turned from an updraft to a subsiding shell outside the cloud, indicating the presence of a transition zone where the updraft is negatively buoyant. Due to the downdraft outside the cloud and enhanced horizontal turbulent mixing across the edge, the normalized turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and horizontal turbulent kinetic energy (HTKE) decrease more slowly from the cloud centre outwards than the thermodynamic variables. The distributions all present asymmetric structures in response to the vertical wind shear, with more negatively buoyant air, stronger downdrafts, and larger TKE on the downshear side. We discuss several implications of the distributions for theoretical models and parameterizations. Positive buoyancy near the cloud base is mostly due to the virtual effect of water vapour, emphasizing the role of moisture in triggering. The mean vertical velocity is found to be approximately half the maximum vertical velocity within each cloud, providing a constraint to achieve possible power-law distributions for some models. Finally, the normalized distributions for different variables are used to estimate the vertical heat and moisture fluxes within clouds. The results suggest that distributions near the cloud edge and variability of maximum perturbations need careful treatment. The fluxes are underestimated in the inversion layer because cloud-top downdrafts cannot be captured well.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Process-oriented stochastic perturbations applied to the parametrization of turbulence and shallow convection for ensemble prediction

Weather forecasting nowadays often requires some estimation of uncertainties associated with the output of meteorological models, in order to better inform decision making, especially in the context of intense weather events. Ensemble prediction systems provide such information through sets of possible scenarios which are designed to represent various uncertainty sources, including model uncertainties. A wide variety of methods have been proposed to estimate model uncertainties, among which perturbation methods targeting uncertain processes are a promising research field. Here, we focus on the representation of small-scale variability by process-oriented perturbation schemes applied to two key physical processes, namely turbulence and shallow convection. The perturbations are applied to a single-column version of the convection-permitting AROME model, in three idealized boundary-layer cases. Large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the same cases serve as a reference for the subgrid variability that has to be represented, and the results are also compared to those given by the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) method, which is a method commonly used by weather forecast centres to represent model uncertainty. The spread produced by our process-oriented perturbations of turbulence and shallow convection does not represent all the small-scale variability implied by the LESs for temperature and humidity. However, it is of a similar order of magnitude for the wind, thanks to perturbations generated by the stochastic turbulence scheme. The dispersion is structurally different from what is obtained with SPPT. It is non-negligible in the lower levels, where SPPT perturbations are usually suppressed because of numerical instabilities, indicating a possible complementarity between the schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-resolution measurements of microphysics and entrainment in marine stratocumulus clouds

High-resolution measurements from the Airborne Cloud-Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS) during the Azores Stratocumulus Measurements of Radiation, Turbulence and Aerosols (ACORES) campaign are analysed for an investigation of the vertical profiles of microphysical properties and entrainment velocity ( W e ) in marine stratocumulus clouds. Here, the vertical profiles show the transition from the cloudy layer to free troposphere with nearly linear profiles of total water mixing ratio, liquid water potential temperature and virtual potential temperature, but the thickness of entrainment interfacial layer varies significantly. Sharp transitions of cloud microphysical and optical properties within a single horizontal flight leg are found in one stratocumulus cloud system. They seem to be related to the local environmental conditions, such as the wind shear and turbulent dissipation rate. W e values estimated by three methods show consistent tendencies in general and are clearly related to the local environmental conditions, such as vertical shear of the horizontal wind and turbulence intensity. However, the magnitudes of W e values differ by up to two orders of magnitude depending on the methods, which suggests that the estimation of W e from in situ measurements is still a challenge. Analysis of the microphysical response to entrainment suggests that inhomogeneous mixing occurs dominantly. On the other hand, the analysis results for the clouds under more humid conditions indicate a higher likelihood of homogeneous mixing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗