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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Learning of Adatom Interactions from Atomically Resolved Imaging Data

Atomic structures and adatom geometries of surfaces encode information about the thermodynamics and kinetics of the processes that lead to their formation, and which can be captured by a generative physical model. In this work, we develop a workflow based on a machine-learning-based analysis of scanning tunneling microscopy images to reconstruct the atomic and adatom positions, and a Bayesian optimization procedure to minimize statistical distance between the chosen physical models and experimental observations. We optimize the parameters of a 2- and 3-parameter Ising model describing surface ordering and use the derived generative model to make predictions across the parameter space. For concentration dependence, we compare the predicted morphologies at different adatom concentrations with the dissimilar regions on the sample surfaces that serendipitously had different adatom concentrations. The proposed workflow can be used to reconstruct the thermodynamic models and associated uncertainties from the experimental observations of materials microstructures. The code used in the manuscript is available at https://github.com/saimani5/Adatom_interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automatic parameter selection for electron ptychography via Bayesian optimization

Abstract Electron ptychography provides new opportunities to resolve atomic structures with deep sub-angstrom spatial resolution and to study electron-beam sensitive materials with high dose efficiency. In practice, obtaining accurate ptychography images requires simultaneously optimizing multiple parameters that are often selected based on trial-and-error, resulting in low-throughput experiments and preventing wider adoption. Here, we develop an automatic parameter selection framework to circumvent this problem using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes. With minimal prior knowledge, the workflow efficiently produces ptychographic reconstructions that are superior to those processed by experienced experts. The method also facilitates better experimental designs by exploring optimized experimental parameters from simulated data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Density weighted angular redshift fluctuations: a new cosmological observable

We propose the use of angular fluctuations in the galaxy redshift field as a new way to extract cosmological information in the Universe. This new probe $\delta z (\hat{\mathbf {n}})$ consists of the statistics of sky maps built by projecting redshifts under a Gaussian window of width σz centred upon a redshift zobs, and weighted by the galaxy density field. We compute the angular power spectrum of the $\delta z (\hat{\mathbf {n}})$ field in both numerical simulations and in linear perturbation theory. From these, we find that the $\delta z (\hat{\mathbf {n}})$ field (i) is sensitive to the underlying density and peculiar velocity fields; (ii) is highly correlated, at the $\gtrsim 60\, {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ level, to the line-of-sight projected peculiar velocity field; (iii) for narrow windows (σz < 0.03), it is almost completely uncorrelated to the projected galaxy angular density field under the same redshift window; and (iv) it is largely unaffected by multiplicative and additive systematic errors on the observed number of galaxies that are redshift-independent over ~σz. We conclude that $\delta z (\hat{\mathbf {n}})$ is a simple and robust tomographic measure of the cosmic density and velocity fields, complementary to angular clustering, that will contribute to more complete exploitations of current and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Material Model Parameters Optimization in Liquid Mercury Target Dynamics Simulation With Machine Learning Surrogates

A pulsed spallation target is subjected to very short (∼0.7μs) but intense loads (23.3 kJ) from repeated proton pulses, which knock away neutrons from the mercury atoms’ nuclei for a wide range application in physics, engineering, medicine, petroleum exploration, biology, chemistry, etc. The effect of this pulsed loading on the stainless-steel target module which contains the flowing mercury target material is difficult to predict not only due to its short but intense explosive-like physical reaction, but also the nonlinear material behavior of the liquid mercury in the structure. Injecting small helium bubbles in the mercury has been an efficient method of mitigating the pressure wave at high power level stage. However, prediction of the resultant loading on the target is more difficult when helium gas is intentionally injected into the mercury. A 2-phase material model that incorporates the Rayleigh-Plesset (R-P) model is expected to address this complex multi-physics dynamics problem by including the bubble dynamics in the liquid mercury. A parameter sensitivity study was firstly employed to understand their impact on the simulation strains. The investigated parameters included E, μ, γ, σ, n, VFgas, and gas cumulative volume curve control parameters a and b. Verification and validation results from sparse polynomial expansions (SPE) method and directional Gaussian smoothing (DGS) optimization show that the surrogate model had training error of ∼7% and validation error of ∼15%, indicating that machine learning methods and surrogate models can help optimize the uncertain parameters in the complex 2-phase material model. This approach is expected to fill the knowledge gap between unknown liquid-gas mixture material model and measured vessel strain responses.

Lin, Lianshan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values, assuming uniformly distributed wind directions. For a spacing of five rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10 %, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain equivalent to 3.24 % of wake losses recovered, compared to 1.42 % of wake losses recovered with yaw offsets optimized for static wind directions. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2011

Calculating Launch Vehicle Flight Performance Reserve

This paper addresses different methods for determining the amount of extra propellant (flight performance reserve or FPR) that is necessary to reach orbit with a high probability of success. One approach involves assuming that the various influential parameters are independent and that the result behaves as a Gaussian. Alternatively, probabilistic models may be used to determine the vehicle and environmental models that will be available (estimated) for a launch day go/no go decision. High-fidelity closed-loop Monte Carlo simulation determines the amount of propellant used with each random combination of parameters that are still unknown at the time of launch. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulation, several methods were used to calculate the FPR. The final chosen solution involves determining distributions for the pertinent outputs and running a separate Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a best estimate of the required FPR. This result differs from the result obtained using the other methods sufficiently that the higher fidelity is warranted.

Hanson, John M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

Electrolytic capacitors↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ramdb: The NASA Raman Spectral Database (version 1.00).

Given that, in most instances, minimal sample preparation is required and due to its contactless instrument design, Raman spectroscopy is one of the most versatile vibrational spectroscopic techniques for the chemical analysis of environmental and biological specimens. The diversity of applications of Raman spectroscopy ranges anywhere from art [1] to planetary science missions [2]. The advancement in the use of Raman spectroscopy in Solar System missions, notably in post-mission sample return analysis, requires a spectral library holding the broad range of specimens that could be found in Solar System sources. For this purpose, we have initiated the development of a Raman spectral database (Ramdb) at NASA Ames Research Center. Currently, the database includes experimental and theoretical Raman spectra of PAHs [3, 4], as well as laboratory Raman spectra of amino acids, carbon allotropes, minerals, and analogs relevance to Earth Sciences [5], Exobiology [6], Planetary [7], and Astrochemistry [8] to name just a few examples. Ramdb can be found on the web at www.astrochemistry.org/ramdb, where raw and processed Raman spectra can be downloaded in CSV format. The laboratory Raman spectra are measured using a laser Raman spectrometer (JASCO NRS-5500-532QRI). The Raman instrument is equipped with three excitation lasers, with wavelengths of 405, 532, and 785 nm. A clean silicon substrate is used as the internal standard for wavenumber calibration. Powdered samples were prepared (microscopic >10 um, grounded microscopic < 10 um) on glass slides. Some raw data exhibited a background signal arising as a combination of laser-induced fluorescence from the sample. To correct this background, we developed a Python pipeline that uses open-source Python libraries. Ramdb provides both raw and processed (using Python pipeline) data, which includes tabulated Raman shift transitions and other measurement details. The theoretical Raman band positions of PAHs (pyrene monomers and tetramer clusters) were computed using density functional theory (DFT) with the help of the Gaussian 16 suite of programs [9]. In the near future, Ramdb will serve as a repository of Raman spectral data from Laboratory Astrophysics and Planetary Science experiments involving the irradiation of organic compounds under simulated space and planetary conditions. In addition, online and offline tools will be developed for utilising the database for comparison to the user’s sample.

N Punnakayathil↗
DOE OSTI2023

O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes

Here, the principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parallel derivative-free optimization for simulation-based design of behind-the-meter energy systems

In this work, the integrated design and dispatch of behind-the-meter or distributed resources (e.g. stationary battery storage and solar PV generation) is considered. A simulation-based framework is employed, generating high-fidelity results with closed-loop predictive control at a fine resolution, at the expense of high computational cost (several minutes to a few hours per design point). To address this challenge, parallel derivative-free design methods are considered. Four methods are compared, including state-of-the-art surrogate-based methods (Radial-Basis Functions and Gaussian processes) and sampling strategies, an evolutionary-based method, and a simple sequential grid refinement method. As a case study, two types of design problem with increasing complexity are considered, namely, the design of behind-the-meter resources (three design variables) and the inclusion of grid capacity (four design variables). The second yields a constrained design problem for which violations can only be determined after solving the computationally expensive simulation. For the three-dimensional case, all methods present a good performance, achieving a solution within 1% of the optimum after the first iteration, with the sequential grid refinement exhibiting the fastest convergence and achieving the best final objective value. This indicates that the parallel evaluation of multiple sampling points may be more important than the choice of method for small decision spaces. For the four-dimensional constrained case, the Genetic Algorithm presents the best tradeoff between performance and computational effort, while the rough objective function terrain generated by constraint violation penalties reduces the performance of surrogate-based methods. Contour plots with flat regions indicate flexibility in the optimal design and highlight the importance of characterizing the solution space.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Calibration of Expensive Simulation Models

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at different parameter settings. Using intelligent and adaptive selection of parameters to build the emulator can drastically improve the efficiency of the calibration process. The article proposes a sequential framework with a novel criterion for parameter selection that targets learning the posterior density of the parameters. The emergent behavior from this criterion is that exploration happens by selecting parameters in uncertain posterior regions while simultaneously exploitation happens by selecting parameters in regions of high posterior density. Furthermore, the advantages of the proposed method are illustrated using several simulation experiments and a nuclear physics reaction model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The miniJPAS survey quasar selection – I. Mock catalogues for classification

In this series of papers, we employ several machine learning (ML) methods to classify the point-like sources from the miniJPAS catalogue, and identify quasar candidates. Since no representative sample of spectroscopically confirmed sources exists at present to train these ML algorithms, we rely on mock catalogues. In this first paper, we develop a pipeline to compute synthetic photometry of quasars, galaxies, and stars using spectra of objects targeted as quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey . To match the same depths and signal-to-noise ratio distributions in all bands expected for miniJPAS point sources in the range 17.5 ≤ r < 24, we augment our sample of available spectra by shifting the original r-band magnitude distributions towards the faint end, ensure that the relative incidence rates of the different objects are distributed according to their respective luminosity functions, and perform a thorough modelling of the noise distribution in each filter, by sampling the flux variance either from Gaussian realizations with given widths, or from combinations of Gaussian functions. Finally, we also add in the mocks the patterns of non-detections which are present in all real observations. Although the mock catalogues presented in this work are a first step towards simulated data sets that match the properties of the miniJPAS observations, these mocks can be adapted to serve the purposes of other photometric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latent Stochastic Differential Equations for Modeling Quasar Variability and Inferring Black Hole Properties

Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar’s brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1989

The generation of surface targets with specified surface statistics

Results are presented from efforts to generate physical surfaces from known or desired surface statistical properties, proceeding from previous work on the generation of random surfaces for use in computer simulations. The known statistical surface is extended using a bicubic spline technique; these results are interfaced with a numerically controlled machine in order to generate the physical surface. A portion of a complete surface with Gaussian statistics was constructed and tested to measure conformity to the desired statistics.

Rochier, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

PDF turbulence modeling and DNS

The problem of time discontinuity (or jump condition) in the coalescence/dispersion (C/D) mixing model is addressed in probability density function (pdf). A C/D mixing model continuous in time is introduced. With the continuous mixing model, the process of chemical reaction can be fully coupled with mixing. In the case of homogeneous turbulence decay, the new model predicts a pdf very close to a Gaussian distribution, with finite higher moments also close to that of a Gaussian distribution. Results from the continuous mixing model are compared with both experimental data and numerical results from conventional C/D models. The effect of Coriolis forces on compressible homogeneous turbulence is studied using direct numerical simulation (DNS). The numerical method used in this study is an eight order compact difference scheme. Contrary to the conclusions reached by previous DNS studies on incompressible isotropic turbulence, the present results show that the Coriolis force increases the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, and that anisotropy develops as the Coriolis force increases. The Taylor-Proudman theory does apply since the derivatives in the direction of the rotation axis vanishes rapidly. A closer analysis reveals that the dissipation rate of the incompressible component of the turbulent kinetic energy indeed decreases with a higher rotation rate, consistent with incompressible flow simulations (Bardina), while the dissipation rate of the compressible part increases; the net gain is positive. Inertial waves are observed in the simulation results.

Hsu, A. T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coil optimization for quasi-helically symmetric stellarator configurations

Filament-based coil optimizations are performed for several quasi-helical stellarator configurations, beginning with the one from Landreman & Paul ( Phys. Rev. Lett. , vol. 128, 2022, 035001), demonstrating that precise quasi-helical symmetry can be achieved with realistic coils. Several constraints are placed on the shape and spacing of the coils, such as low curvature and sufficient plasma–coil distance for neutron shielding. The coils resulting from this optimization have a maximum curvature 0.8 times that of the coils of the Helically Symmetric eXperiment (HSX) and a mean squared curvature 0.4 times that of the HSX coils when scaled to the same plasma minor radius. When scaled up to reactor size and magnetic field strength, no fast particle losses were found in the free-boundary configuration when simulating 5000 alpha particles launched at $3.5\,\mathrm {MeV}$ on the flux surface with a normalized toroidal flux of $s=0.5$ . An analysis of the tolerance of the coils to manufacturing errors is performed using a Gaussian process model, and the coils are found to maintain low particle losses for smooth, large-scale errors up to amplitudes of approximately $0.15\,\mathrm {m}$ . Another coil optimization is performed for the Landreman–Paul configuration with the additional constraint that the coils are purely planar. Visual inspection of the Poincaré plot of the resulting magnetic field-lines reveal that the planar modular coils alone do a poor job of reproducing the target equilibrium. Additional non-planar coil optimizations are performed for the quasi-helical configuration with $5\,\%$ volume-averaged plasma beta from Landreman et al. ( Phys. Plasma , vol. 29, issue 8, 2022, 082501), and a similar configuration also optimized to satisfy the Mercier criterion. The finite beta configurations had larger fast-particle losses, with the free-boundary Mercier-optimized configuration performing the worst, losing approximately $5.5\,\%$ of alpha particles launched at $s=0.5$ .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗