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At least 703 records · Page 39

Tropical Cumulus Convection and Upward Propagating Waves in Middle Atmospheric GCMs

It is recognized that the resolved tropical wave spectrum can vary considerably between general circulation models (GCMs) and that these differences can have an important impact on the simulated climate. A comprehensive comparison of the waves is presented for the December-January-February period using high-frequency (three-hourly) data archives from eight GCMs and one simple model participating in the GCM Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS). Quantitative measures of the structure and causes of the wavenumber-frequency structure of resolved waves and their impacts on the climate are given. Space-time spectral analysis reveals that the wave spectrum throughout the middle atmosphere is linked to variability of convective precipitation, which is determined by the parameterized convection. The variability of the precipitation spectrum differs by more than an order of magnitude between the models, with additional changes in the spectral distribution (especially the frequency). These differences can be explained primarily by the choice of different, cumulus par amet erizations: quasi-equilibrium mass-flux schemes tend to produce small variability, while the moist-convective adjustment scheme is most active. Comparison with observational estimates of precipitation variability suggests that the model values are scattered around the truth. This result indicates that a significant portion of the forcing of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is provided by waves with scales that are not resolved in present-day GCMs, since only the moist convective adjustment scheme (which has the largest transient variability) can force a QBO in models that have no parameterization of non-stationary gravity waves. Parameterized cumulus convection also impacts the nonmigrating tides in the equatorial region. In most of the models, momentum transport by diurnal nonmigrating tides in the mesosphere is larger than that by Kelvin waves, being more significant than has been thought. It is shown that the equatorial semi-annual oscillation in the models examined is driven mainly by gravity waves with periods shorter than three days, with at least some contribution from parameterized gravity waves; the contribution from the ultra-fast zonal wavenumber-1 Kelvin waves is negligible.

Horinouchi, T.↗

Confronting Models with Data: The GEWEX Cloud Systems Study

The GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS; GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) was organized to promote development of improved parameterizations of cloud systems for use in climate and numerical weather prediction models, with an emphasis on the climate applications. The strategy of GCSS is to use two distinct kinds of models to analyze and understand observations of the behavior of several different types of clouds systems. Cloud-system-resolving models (CSRMs) have high enough spatial and temporal resolutions to represent individual cloud elements, but cover a wide enough range of space and time scales to permit statistical analysis of simulated cloud systems. Results from CSRMs are compared with detailed observations, representing specific cases based on field experiments, and also with statistical composites obtained from satellite and meteorological analyses. Single-column models (SCMs) are the surgically extracted column physics of atmospheric general circulation models. SCMs are used to test cloud parameterizations in an un-coupled mode, by comparison with field data and statistical composites. In the original GCSS strategy, data is collected in various field programs and provided to the CSRM Community, which uses the data to "certify" the CSRMs as reliable tools for the simulation of particular cloud regimes, and then uses the CSRMs to develop parameterizations, which are provided to the GCM Community. We report here the results of a re-thinking of the scientific strategy of GCSS, which takes into account the practical issues that arise in confronting models with data. The main elements of the proposed new strategy are a more active role for the large-scale modeling community, and an explicit recognition of the importance of data integration.

Randall, David↗

Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola↗

The NASA/Ames Mars General Circulation Model: Model Improvements and Comparison with Observations

For many years, the NASA/Ames Mars General Circulation Model (GCM) has been built around the UCLA B-grid dynamical core. An attached tracer transport scheme based on the aerosol microphysical model of Toon et al. (1988) provided a tool for studying dust storm transport and feedbacks (Murphy et al., 1995). While we still use a B-grid version of the model, the Ames group is now transitioning to the ARIES/GEOS Goddard C-grid dynamical core (Suarez and Takacs, 1995). The C-grid produces smoother fields when the model top is raised above 50 km, and has a built in transport scheme for an arbitrary number of tracers. All of our transport simulations are now carried out with the C-grid. We have also been updating our physics package. Several years ago we replaced our bulk boundary layer scheme with a level 2 type diffusive scheme, and added a multi-level soil model (Haberle et al., 2000). More recently we replaced our radiation code with a more generalized two-stream code that accounts for aerosol multiple scattering and gaseous absorption. This code gives us much more flexibility in choosing aerosol optical properties and radiatively active gases.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Overlap Properties of Clouds Generated by a Cloud Resolving Model

In order for General Circulation Models (GCMs), one of our most important tools to predict future climate, to correctly describe the propagation of solar and thermal radiation through the cloudy atmosphere a realistic description of the vertical distribution of cloud amount is needed. Actually, one needs not only the cloud amounts at different levels of the atmosphere, but also how these cloud amounts are related, in other words, how they overlap. Currently GCMs make some idealized assumptions about cloud overlap, for example that contiguous cloud layers overlap maximally and non-contiguous cloud layers overlap in a random fashion. Since there are difficulties in obtaining the vertical profile of cloud amount from observations, the realism of the overlap assumptions made in GCMs has not been yet rigorously investigated. Recently however, cloud observations from a relatively new type of ground radar have been used to examine the vertical distribution of cloudiness. These observations suggest that the GCM overlap assumptions are dubious. Our study uses cloud fields from sophisticated models dedicated to simulate cloud formation, maintenance, and dissipation called Cloud Resolving Models . These models are generally considered capable of producing realistic three-dimensional representation of cloudiness. Using numerous cloud fields produced by such a CRM we show that the degree of overlap between cloud layers is a function of their separation distance, and is in general described by a combination of the maximum and random overlap assumption, with random overlap dominating as separation distances increase. We show that it is possible to parameterize this behavior in a way that can eventually be incorporated in GCMs. Our results seem to have a significant resemblance to the results from the radar observations despite the completely different nature of the datasets. This consistency is encouraging and will promote development of new radiative transfer codes that will estimate the radiation effects of multi-layer cloud fields more accurately.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

Numerical Simulation of the Large-Scale North American Monsoon Water Sources

A general circulation model (GCM) that includes water vapor tracer (WVT) diagnostics is used to delineate the dominant sources of water vapor for precipitation during the North American monsoon. A 15-year model simulation carried out with one-degree horizontal resolution and time varying sea surface temperature is able to produce reasonable large-scale features of the monsoon precipitation. Within the core of the Mexican monsoon, continental sources provide much of the water for precipitation. Away from the Mexican monsoon (eastern Mexico and Texas), continental sources generally decrease with monsoon onset. Tropical Atlantic Ocean sources of water gain influence in the southern Great Plains states where the total precipitation decreases during the monsoon onset. Pacific ocean sources do contribute to the monsoon, but tend to be weaker after onset. Evaluating the development of the monsoons, soil water and surface evaporation prior to monsoon onset do not correlate with the eventual monsoon intensity. However, the most intense monsoons do use more local sources of water than the least intense monsoons, but only after the onset. This suggests that precipitation recycling is an important factor in monsoon intensity.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Using Clustering to Establish Climate Regimes from PCM Output

A multivariate statistical clustering technique--based on the k-means algorithm of Hartigan has been used to extract patterns of climatological significance from 200 years of general circulation model (GCM) output. Originally developed and implemented on a Beowulf-style parallel computer constructed by Hoffman and Hargrove from surplus commodity desktop PCs, the high performance parallel clustering algorithm was previously applied to the derivation of ecoregions from map stacks of 9 and 25 geophysical conditions or variables for the conterminous U.S. at a resolution of 1 sq km. Now applied both across space and through time, the clustering technique yields temporally-varying climate regimes predicted by transient runs of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and clustering four fields of significance to the global water cycle (surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and snow depth) from 1871 through 2098, the authors' analysis shows an increase in spatial area occupied by the cluster or climate regime which typifies desert regions (i.e., an increase in desertification) and a decrease in the spatial area occupied by the climate regime typifying winter-time high latitude perma-frost regions. The patterns of cluster changes have been analyzed to understand the predicted variability in the water cycle on global and continental scales. In addition, representative climate regimes were determined by taking three 10-year averages of the fields 100 years apart for northern hemisphere winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July, and August). The result is global maps of typical seasonal climate regimes for 100 years in the past, for the present, and for 100 years into the future. Using three-dimensional data or phase space representations of these climate regimes (i.e., the cluster centroids), the authors demonstrate the portion of this phase space occupied by the land surface at all points in space and time. Any single spot on the globe will exist in one of these climate regimes at any single point in time. By incrementing time, that same spot will trace out a trajectory or orbit between and among these climate regimes (or atmospheric states) in phase (or state) space. When a geographic region enters a state it never previously visited, a climatic change is said to have occurred. Tracing out the entire trajectory of a single spot on the globe yields a 'manifold' in state space representing the shape of its predicted climate occupancy. This sort of analysis enables a researcher to more easily grasp the multivariate behavior of the climate system.

Oglesby, Robert↗

Martian Atmospheric Circulation and Climate

This proposal is focused on using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data and numerical models to address issues of atmospheric mixing of volatiles and aerosols, on defining the mean state of the atmosphere and the degree of variability, and on the processes which exchange volatiles and aerosols between the surface and atmosphere. Specifically, five areas of research were defined: In the first, we proposed to use TES data to examine the general circulation of the atmosphere both through retrieval of the residual circulation, and by comparison of the TES data with a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM). In the second, we proposed to look at synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric mixing processes (baroclinic storms, etc.) by combining TES and MOC Wide Angle data, and by employing a Mars Mesoscale Model. In the third section, we proposed to examine the record of the Martian atmospheric state provided by MGS, Viking, and Mariner 9 - as well as published ground-based observations - in order to assess the nature of interannual variability. In the forth section, we proposed to compare numerical models of the Martian water and dust cycles with TES and MOC data, specifically looking at water ice cloud distributions, dust distribution, etc. In the fifth section, we propose to use the mesoscale model to study the Mars Pathfinder Lander data. This work has now concluded its final of three years.

Ingersoll, Andrew P.↗

Martian Global-scale Seasonal CO2 Change: Comparison of Geodetic Observations and Numerical Simulations

The Martian atmosphere exhibits an annual cycle in the CO2 concentration; as much as 30% of the atmosphere takes part in seasonal exchange of mass between the atmosphere and the seasonal polar caps. The signature of this global-scale annual cycle can be found in the variation of gravitational field. This information can be used to estimate the global scale seasonal mass and atmospheric pressure variations. With recent Mars Global Surveyor mission, global scale CO2 change in polar caps has been estimated by several authors. Although similar geodetic data are used, the results vary due to the differences in the approximations made. In the present study, these approaches are discussed and the polar mass changes are estimated. The results are compared with the values given by two Martian Global Circulation Models (GCM) as well as observations.

O Karatekin↗

Intercomparison of Atmospheric Radiation Schemes for the Lower Martian Atmosphere

Interpretation of the vast data flow from the recent and ongoing Mars missions requires extensive modeling activity to support the investigations and conclusions drawn from the observations. We have initiated a campaign to compare atmospheric radiation schemes for the lower Martian atmosphere with leastcompromise reference line-by-line calculations (Meadows and Crisp 1996, Crisp 1986). By using fixed reference conditions we are introducing an intercomparison framework to enable atmospheric modeling teams to compare their modeling results with the reference line-by-line calculations, and to improve their models. The atmosphere of Mars is thin and therefore its response to local radiative forcing is strong when compared to that of the Earth s troposphere. Airborne dust and also the water vapor give significant contributions to the radiative fluxes. Thus models of the Martian atmosphere should have fairly accurate radiative transfer (RT) algorithms. This is specifically important for the net radiative flux at the surface, which is the main driver for the surface temperature evolution, since the surface turbulent fluxes are small due to the thin atmosphere (e.g. Haberle et al. 1993, Savij arvi 1991a, Savij arvi 1991b, Savij arvi 1999). However, the accuracy of the RT schemes has not been rigorously tested in many cases as reference calculations have been rare. We introduce a set of reference cases for Martian atmospheric conditions with profiles for temperature, pressure, dust optical depth (Conrath 1975, Clancy et al. 1995, OckertBell et al. 1997, Smith et al. 2000), water, CO2,O3,CO and O2 (Table 1). The reference atmosphere uses a diurnally and globally averaged thermal structure derived from Mariner 9 IRIS observations acquired during late southern summer. Thermal structures for nighttime and daytime conditions will be included shortly. Computationally expensive reference simulations were performed by applying a spectrum resolving (line-by-line multiple scattering) model, SRM, to give the least-compromise base for comparisons. We call for other groups to join in future comparisons. This resembles the International Comparison of Radiation Codes for Climate Models (ICRCCM; e.g. Ellingson and Fouquart 1991, Ellingson et al. 1991). The ICRCCM led to many improvements in the Earth GCM radiation codes. The intercomparison framework presented in this paper is a step toward that direction for Mars. We have already five modeling teams participating in this intercomparison exercice. Additional teams investigating the Martian atmosphere are cordially invited to join this effort of comparing the radiation schemes in fixed conditions. The results achieved will be reported and some additional features to be included in the intercomparison will be discussed.

A-M Harri↗

Aeolin Features and Processes at the Mars Pathfinder Landing Site

The Mars Pathfinder landing site contains abundant features attributed to aeolian, or wind, processes. These include wind tails, drift deposits, duneforms of various types, ripplelike features, and ventifacts (the first clearly seen on Mars). Many of these features are consistant with formation involving sand-size particles. Although some features, such as dunes, could develop from saltating sand-size aggregates of finer grains, the discovery of ventifact flutes cut in rocks strongly suggests that at least some of the grains are crystalline, rather than aggregates. Excluding the ventifacts, the orientations of the wind-related features correlate well with the orientations of bright wind steaks seen on Viking Orbiter images in the general area. They also correlate with wind direction predictions from the NASA-Ames General Circulation Model (GCM) which show that the strongest winds in the area occur in the northern hemisphere winter and are directed toward 209 degrees.

Greeley, Ronald↗

The Reanalysis for Stratospheric Trace-gas Studies

In order to re-examine trace gas transport in the middle atmosphere for the period May 1991 until April 1995, a "reanalysis" is being performed using an up-to-date version of the DAO's "GEOS" assimilation system. The Reanalysis for Stratospheric Trace-gas Studies (ReSTS) is intended to provide state-of-the-art estimates of the atmosphere during a period when the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite provided a high density of trace-gas observations, and when the aerosol loading from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo contaminated the lower stratosphere, at the same time performing a natural tracer transport experiment. This study will present the first results from ReSTS, focussing on the improvements over the meteorological analyses produced by the then-operational GEOS-1 data assimilation system; emphasis will be placed on the improved representations of physical processes between GEOS-1 and the current GEOS-4 systems, highlighting the transport properties of the datasets. Alongside the production of a comprehensive atmospheric dataset, important components of ReSTS include performing sensitivity studies to the formulation of the assimilation system (including the representation of physical processes in the GCM, such as feedbacks between ozone/aerosols and meteorology) and to the inclusion of additional data types (including limb-sounding temperature data alongside the TOVS observations). Impacts of some of these factors on the analyzed meteorology and transport will be discussed. Of particular interest are attempts to determine the relative importance of various steps in the assimilation process to the quality of the final analyses.

Pawson, Steven↗

Decoupling of Iron and Phosphate in the Global Ocean

Iron is an essential micronutrient for marine phytoplankton, limiting their growth in high nutrient, low chlorophyll regions of the ocean. I use a hierarchy of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry models to understand controls on global iron distribution. I formulate a mechanistic model of iron cycling which includes scavenging onto sinking particles and complexation with an organic ligand. The iron cycle is coupled to a phosphorus cycling model. Iron's aeolian source is prescribed. In the context of a highly idealized multi-box model scheme, the model can be brought into consistency with the relatively sparse ocean observations of iron in the oceans. This biogeochemical scheme is also implemented in a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model. This model also successfully reproduces the broad regional patterns of iron and phosphorus. In particular, the high macronutrient concentrations of the Southern Ocean result from iron limitation in the model. Due to the potential ability of iron to change the efficiency of the carbon pump in the remote Southern Ocean, I study Southern Ocean surface phosphate response to increased aeolian dust flux. My box model and GCM results suggest that a global ten fold increase in dust flux can support a phosphate drawdown of 0.25-0.5 micromolar.

GLOBAL OCEAN MODEL↗

Solar Effects on Climate and the Maunder Minimum: Minimum Certainty

The current state of our understanding of solar effects on climate is reviewed. As an example of the relevant issues, the climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The GISS Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model coupled to a q-flux/mixed layer model is used for the simulations, which begin in 1500 and extend to the present. Experiments were made to investigate the effect of total versus spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes; spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes on the stratospheric ozone/climate response with both pre-industrial and present trace gases; and the impact on climate and stratospheric ozone of the preindustrial trace gases and aerosols by themselves. The results showed that: (1) the Maunder Minimum cooling relative to today was primarily associated with reduced anthropogenic radiative forcing, although the solar reduction added 40% to the overall cooling. There is no obvious distinguishing surface climate pattern between the two forcings. (2)The global and tropical response was greater than 1 C, in a model with a sensitivity of 1.2 C per W m-2. To reproduce recent low-end estimates would require a sensitivity 1/4 as large. (3) The global surface temperature change was similar when using the total and spectral irradiance prescriptions, although the tropical response was somewhat greater with the former, and the stratospheric response greater with the latter. (4) Most experiments produce a relative negative phase of the NAO/AO during the Maunder Minimum, with both solar and anthropogenic forcing equally capable, associated with the tropical cooling and relative poleward EP flux refraction. (5) A full stratosphere appeared to be necessary for the negative AO/NAO phase, as was the case with this model for global warming experiments, unless the cooling was very large, while the ozone response played a minor role and did not influence surface temperature significantly. (6) Stratospheric ozone was most affected by the difference between present day and preindustrial atmospheric composition and chemistry, with increases in the upper and lower stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum. While the estimated UV reduction led to ozone decreases, this was generally less important than the anthropogenic effect except in the upper middle stratosphere, as judged by two different ozone photochemistry schemes. (7) The effect of the reduced solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone and on climate was similar in Maunder Minimum and current atmospheric conditions.

Rind, David↗

Status of Middle Atmosphere-Climate Models: Results SPARC-GRIPS

The middle atmosphere is an important component of the climate system, primarily because of the radiative forcing of ozone. Middle atmospheric ozone can change, over long times, because of changes in the abundance of anthropogenic pollutants which catalytically destroy it, and because of the temperature sensitivity of kinetic reaction rates. There is thus a complex interaction between ozone, involving chemical and climatic mechanisms. One question of interest is how ozone will change over the next decades , as the "greenhouse-gas cooling" of the middle atmosphere increases but the concentrations of chlorine species decreases (because of policy changes). concerns the climate biases in current middle atmosphere-climate models, especially their ability to simulate the correct seasonal cycle at high latitudes, and the existence of temperature biases in the global mean. A major obstacle when addressing this question This paper will present a summary of recent results from the "GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC" (GRIPS) initiative. A set of middle atmosphere-climate models has been compared, identifying common biases. Mechanisms for these biases are being studied in some detail, including off-line assessments of the radiation transfer codes and coordinated studies of the impacts of gravity wave drag due to sub-grid-scale processes. ensemble of models will be presented, along with numerical experiments undertaken with one or more models, designed to investigate the mechanisms at work in the atmosphere. The discussion will focus on dynamical and radiative mechanisms in the current climate, but implications for coupled ozone chemistry and the future climate will be assessed.

Pawson, Steven↗

Total Ozone Prediction: Stratospheric Dynamics

The correct prediction of total ozone as a function of latitude and season is extremely important for global models. This exercise tests the ability of a particular model to simulate ozone. The ozone production (P) and loss (L) will be specified from a well- established global model and will be used in all GCMs for subsequent prediction of ozone. This is the "B-3 Constrained Run" from M&MII. The exercise mostly tests a model stratospheric dynamics in the prediction of total ozone. The GCM predictions will be compared and contrasted with TOMS measurements.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Mars Polar Science and Exploration

The session, "Mars Polar Science and Exploration" included the following reports: Evidence for Possible Exposed Water Ice Deposits in Martian Low Latitude Chasms and Chaos; Stability and Exchange of Subsurface Ice on Mars; Evaporation Rates for Liquid Water and Ice Under Current Martian Conditions; Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Dioxide and Atmospheric Circulation in Mars Southern Hemisphere as Observed by Neutron Spectroscopy; Imaging Polarimetry of Mars with Hubble Space Telescope in 2003 Opposition; GCM Simulations of Tropical Ice Accumulations: Implications for Cold-based Glaciers; Numerical Modeling of Glaciers in Martian Paleoclimates; Valley Glaciers on Mars: Calculation of Flow Rate and Thickness; Internal Structure of the Southern Polar Cap of Mars and Formation Implications; Sublimation at the Base of a Seasonal CO2 Slab on Mars; Impact Crater Abundance of the Martian South Polar Layered Deposits from THEMIS Visible Imaging; Recent Changes in South-Polar-Polygonal Terrain During One Martian Year: Implications for Subsurface Ice-Wedges; and An Historical Search for Unfrozen Water at the Phoenix Landing Site.

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Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

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