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Fast Bayesian optimization of Needle-in-a-Haystack problems using zooming memory-based initialization (ZoMBI)

Abstract Needle-in-a-Haystack problems exist across a wide range of applications including rare disease prediction, ecological resource management, fraud detection, and material property optimization. A Needle-in-a-Haystack problem arises when there is an extreme imbalance of optimum conditions relative to the size of the dataset. However, current state-of-the-art optimization algorithms are not designed with the capabilities to find solutions to these challenging multidimensional Needle-in-a-Haystack problems, resulting in slow convergence or pigeonholing into a local minimum. In this paper, we present a Zooming Memory-Based Initialization algorithm, entitled ZoMBI, that builds on conventional Bayesian optimization principles to quickly and efficiently optimize Needle-in-a-Haystack problems in both less time and fewer experiments. The ZoMBI algorithm demonstrates compute time speed-ups of 400× compared to traditional Bayesian optimization as well as efficiently discovering optima in under 100 experiments that are up to 3× more highly optimized than those discovered by similar methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Proceedings of the Workshop on Identification and Control of Flexible Space Structures, volume 1

Identification and control of flexible space structures were studied. Exploration of the most advanced modeling estimation, identification and control methodologies to flexible space structures was discussed. The following general areas were discussed: space platforms, antennas, and flight experiments; control/structure interactions - modeling, integrated design and optimization, control and stabilization, and shape control; control technology; control of space stations; large antenna control, dynamics and control experiments, and control/structure interaction experiments.

Rodriguez, G.↗

Adaptive Sampling-Based Bi-Fidelity Stochastic Trust Region Method for Stochastic Derivative-Free Optimization

Bi-fidelity stochastic optimization has gained increasing attention as an efficient approach to reduce computational costs by leveraging a low-fidelity (LF) model to optimize an expensive high-fidelity (HF) objective. In this paper, we propose ASTRO-BFDF, an adaptive sampling trust-region method specifically designed for unconstrained bi-fidelity stochastic derivative-free optimization problems. In ASTRO-BFDF, the LF function serves two purposes: (i) to identify better iterates for the HF function when the optimization process indicates a high correlation between them and (ii) to reduce the variance of the HF function estimates using bi-fidelity Monte Carlo (BFMC). The algorithm dynamically determines sample sizes while adaptively choosing between crude Monte Carlo and BFMC to balance the trade-off between optimization and sampling errors. We prove that the iterates generated by ASTRO-BFDF converge to a first-order stationary point almost surely. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm through numerical experiments on synthetic benchmarks and simulation optimization problems involving discrete event systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling for the phased injector upgrade for 12 GeV CEBAF

The upcoming Jefferson Lab K-Long experiment at Hall D will require unique beam conditions with a much lower bunch repetition rate and atypically high bunch charge. To optimize the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) injector for this experiment, we performed Multi-Objective Genetic Optimization (MGO) using General Particle Tracer (GPT) to determine the magnetic elements and RF settings necessary for the K-long bunch charge (0.64 pC) at 200 kV. We also investigated the transmission and beam characteristics of low to high charge per bunch electron beams through the injector for simultaneous operations of all four CEBAF Halls and characterized the transmission as a function of the photocathode laser spot size and pulse length. Our findings provide valuable insights into optimizing the CEBAF injector for the Jefferson Lab K-Long experiment, as well as for other experiments with similar beam conditions

Kazimi, R.↗

Risk-Adaptive Experimental Design for High-Consequence Systems: LDRD Final Report

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimization of Aluminum Anodization Conditions for the Fabrication of Nanowires by Electrodeposition

Anodized alumina nanotemplates have a variety of potential applications in the development of nanotechnology. Alumina nanotemplates are formed by oxidizing aluminum film in an electrolyte solution.During anodization, aluminum oxidizes, and, under the proper conditions, nanometer-sized pores develop. A series of experiments was conducted to determine the optimal conditions for anodization. Three-micrometer thick aluminum films on silicon and silicon oxide substrates were anodized using constant voltages of 13-25 V. 0.1-0.3M oxalic acid was used as the electrolyte. The anodization time was found to increase and the overshooting current decreased as both the voltage and the electrolyte concentrations were decreased. The samples were observed under a scanning electron microscope. Anodizing with 25V in 0.3M oxalic acid appears to be the best process conditions. The alumina nanotemplates are being used to fabricate nanowires by electrodeposition. The current-voltage characteristics of copper nanowires have also been studied.

Fucsko, Viola↗

Optimization of Orifice Geometry for Cross-Flow Mixing in a Cylindrical Duct

Mixing of gaseous jets in a cross-flow has significant applications in engineering, one example of which is the dilution zone of a gas turbine combustor. Despite years of study, the design of jet injection in combustors is largely based on practical experience. A series of experiments was undertaken to delineate the optimal mixer orifice geometry. A cross-flow to core-flow momentum-flux ratio of 40 and a mass flow ratio of 2.5 were selected as representative of an advanced design. An experimental test matrix was designed around three variables: the number of orifices, the orifice aspect ratio (long-to-short dimension), and the orifice angle. A regression analysis was performed on the data to arrive at an interpolating equation that predicted the mixing performance of orifice geometry combinations within the range of the test matrix parameters. Results indicate that mixture uniformity is a non-linear function of the number of orifices, the orifice aspect ratio, and the orifice angle. Optimum mixing occurs when the asymptotic mean jet trajectories are in the range of 0.35 less than r/R less than 0.5 (where r = 0 is at the mixer wall) at z/R = 1.0. At the optimum number of orifices, the difference between shallow-angled slots with large aspect ratios and round holes is minimal and either approach will lead to good mixing performance. At the optimum number of orifices, it appears possible to have two local optimums where one corresponds to an aspect ratio of 1.0 and the other to a high aspect ratio.

Sowa, W. A.↗

Optimization of Orifice Geometry for Cross-Flow Mixing in a Cylindrical Duct

Mixing of gaseous jets in a cross-flow has significant applications in engineering, one example of which is the dilution zone of a gas turbine combustor. Despite years of study, the design of the jet injection in combustors is largely based on practical experience. The emergence of NO(x) regulations for stationary gas turbines and the anticipation of aero-engine regulations requires an improved understanding of jet mixing as new combustor concepts are introduced. For example, the success of the staged combustor to reduce the emission of NO(x) is almost entirely dependent upon the rapid and complete dilution of the rich zone products within the mixing section. It is these mixing challenges to which the present study is directed. A series of experiments was undertaken to delineate the optimal mixer orifice geometry. A cross-flow to core-flow momentum-flux ratio of 40 and a mass flow ratio of 2.5 were selected as representative of a conventional design. An experimental test matrix was designed around three variables: the number of orifices, the orifice length-to- width ratio, and the orifice angle. A regression analysis was performed on the data to arrive at an interpolating equation that predicted the mixing performance of orifice geometry combinations within the range of the test matrix parameters. Results indicate that the best mixing orifice geometry tested involves eight orifices with a long-to-short side aspect ratio of 3.5 at a twenty-three degree inclination from the center-line of the mixing section.

Kroll, J. T.↗

Aero-Propulsive Modeling for eVTOL Aircraft Using Wind Tunnel Testing with Multisine Inputs

A novel approach for modeling the aero-propulsive characteristics of an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft was developed and demonstrated in wind tunnel testing. The approach was applied to the NASA LA-8 tandem tilt-wing eVTOL aircraft, using an efficient, hybrid experiment design composed of a static I-optimal response surface design for slowly-varying test variables, and dynamic orthogonal phase-optimized multisine excitations for the control surfaces and electric propulsors. Both the static and dynamic experiment designs were executed simultaneously to collect informative data for model identification. Statistically-weighted multivariate orthogonal function modeling was used to combine local modeling results computed in the frequency domain using data collected with dynamic excitations operating on the control effectors to form an aggregate aero-propulsive model. The final identified model exhibited good predictive capability when compared to validation data acquired separately from the data used to develop the model. The required test time using these new techniques was reduced by at least a factor of five compared to previous static wind tunnel testing for the LA-8 aircraft, while providing more informative data, greater parameterization flexibility, and high-quality models.

system identification↗

Wake steering optimization under uncertainty

Turbines in wind power plants experience significant power losses when wakes from upstream turbines affect the energy production of downstream turbines. A promising plant-level control strategy to reduce these losses is wake steering, where upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. However, there are significant uncertainties in many aspects of the wake steering problem. For example, infield sensors do not give perfect information, and inflow to the plant is complex and difficult to forecast with available information, even over short time periods. Here, we formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for determining optimal plant-level wake steering strategies in the presence of independent uncertainties in the direction, speed, turbulence intensity, and shear of the incoming wind, as well as in turbine yaw positions. The OUU wake steering strategy is first examined for a two-turbine test case to explore the impacts of different types of inflow uncertainties, and it is then demonstrated for a more realistic 11-turbine wind power plant. Of the sources of uncertainty considered, we find that wake steering strategies are most sensitive to uncertainties in the wind speed and direction. When maximizing expected power production, the OUU strategy also tends to favor smaller yaw angles, which have been shown in previous work to reduce turbine loading. Ultimately, the plant-level wake steering strategy formulated using an OUU approach yields 0.48?% more expected annual energy production for the 11-turbine wind plant than a strategy that neglects uncertainty when considering stochastic inputs. Thus, not only does the present OUU strategy produce more power in realistic conditions, but it also reduces risk by prescribing strategies that call for less extreme yaw angles.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Building a standardized Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework for Mars

We advocate that the Decadal Survey recommends the NASA Science Mission Directorate to develop a rigorous Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework for Mars, to optimize future atmospheric observations. Atmospheric conditions on Mars are a potential hazard source for landing missions. Errors in the estimates of atmospheric density profiles, inadequate knowledge of wind vertical structure and dust concentration as a function of height are likely causes of uncertainty at the landing site on the order of kilometers. An operational real-time weather forecasting capability for Mars would reduce such uncertainties, carrying enormous benefits to future robotic missions, and would be an invaluable prerequisite for human missions.A real-time forecasting capability relies upon three fundamental components: a critical mass of observing systems, a data assimilation system (DAS), and a global forecast model. The DAS allows the model to ingest the data effectively, optimizing the observational information content,and transforming them into a gridded representation of the atmosphere at a given time, called an ‘analysis’. The analysis is the best estimate of the atmospheric state for that time, and also represents a set of ‘initial conditions’ from which a global model can be initialized, to predict a future state of the atmosphere. The connection between analysis and forecast represents the foundation of modern weather forecasting. However, from the point of view of a forecast system,not all observations are equally impactful, partially because of the problem of “observational error correlation”, one important research topic in data assimilation development. For the Earth, partly due to the spontaneous and deregulated development of observations and forecast capabilities worldwide for more than half a century,the use of observations in contemporary operational forecast systems is suboptimal, with many potentially useful data being underutilized. On the contrary, Mars atmospheric scientists are in the unique situation of designing the next-generation observing systems by learning from the experience gathered on the Earth, so as to assure that the future instruments are specifically optimized to give the maximum benefit to a future weather forecast capability.An immensely powerful tool that has been firmly established by atmospheric scientists on the Earth is represented by a properly designed OSSE framework. A realistic OSSE framework cannot only quantify the benefit of future data types, be them surface based or space borne, but can also help design and optimize an entire observational network. Furthermore, OSSEs can provide deep insights into an atmosphere’s behavior, by addressing conceptual problems of its intrinsic predictability and delineating the regions or features of the atmosphere which are more sensitive to additional data and would benefit from a denser sampling. The difficulties posed by OSSEs are fundamentally different for Earth and Mars. For Earth, the enormous data volume imposes a tremendous constraint on any innovation in the observing systems: it is very hard for a single sensor to impact the skill. For Mars, the problem is the opposite: almost any additional instrument will exert some impact. However, OSSEs can help to evaluate the cost/benefit for every sensor and suggest optimal data configuration and density.The purpose of this white paper is to provide an introduction to a rigorously designed OSSE framework, explain the underlying problems and challenges, and engage the Mars community to collaborate with Earth Atmospheric scientists in order to develop a joint-OSSE framework for Mars with the largest consensual basis possible. An OSSE infrastructure would increase the understanding of the Martian atmosphere, would help NASA to optimize instrument specifications and orbit choice, providing the maximium benefit for a given expenditure of resources, and could even help establishing a roadmap for a future real-time weather forecasting capability.

Oreste Reale↗

Performance of Optimized Actuator and Sensor Arrays in an Active Noise Control System

Experiments have been conducted in NASA Langley's Acoustics and Dynamics Laboratory to determine the effectiveness of optimized actuator/sensor architectures and controller algorithms for active control of harmonic interior noise. Tests were conducted in a large scale fuselage model - a composite cylinder which simulates a commuter class aircraft fuselage with three sections of trim panel and a floor. Using an optimization technique based on the component transfer functions, combinations of 4 out of 8 piezoceramic actuators and 8 out of 462 microphone locations were evaluated against predicted performance. A combinatorial optimization technique called tabu search was employed to select the optimum transducer arrays. Three test frequencies represent the cases of a strong acoustic and strong structural response, a weak acoustic and strong structural response and a strong acoustic and weak structural response. Noise reduction was obtained using a Time Averaged/Gradient Descent (TAGD) controller. Results indicate that the optimization technique successfully predicted best and worst case performance. An enhancement of the TAGD control algorithm was also evaluated. The principal components of the actuator/sensor transfer functions were used in the PC-TAGD controller. The principal components are shown to be independent of each other while providing control as effective as the standard TAGD.

Palumbo, D. L.↗

Performance of Optimized Actuator and Sensor Arrays in an Active Noise Control System

Experiments have been conducted in NASA Langley s Acoustics and Dynamics Laboratory to determine the effectiveness of optimized actuator/sensor architectures and controller algorithms for active control of harmonic interior noise. Tests were conducted in a large scale fuselage model - a composite cylinder which simulates a commuter class aircraft fuselage with three sections of trim panel and a floor. Using an optimization technique based on the component transfer functions, combinations of 4 out of 8 piezoceramic actuators and 8 out of 462 microphone locations were evaluated against predicted performance. A combinatorial optimization technique call tabu search was employed to select the optimum transducer arrays. Three test frequencies represent the cases of a strong acoustic and strong structural response, a weak acoustic and strong structural response and a strong acoustic and weak structural response. Noise reduction was obtained using a Time Averaged/Gradient Descent (TAGD) controller. Results indicate that the optimization technique successfully predicted best and worst case performance. An enhancement of the TAGD control algorithm was also evaluated. The principal components of the actuator/sensor transfer functions were used in the PC-TAGD controller. The principal components are shown to be independent of each other while providing control as effective as the standard TAGD.

Palumbo, D. L.↗

ORNL_AISD-Ex: Quantum chemical prediction of UV/Vis absorption spectra for over 10 million organic molecules

We performed calculations of electronic excitation energies and associated oscillator strengths based on the time-dependent density-functional tight-binding (TD-DFTB) method [1]. The SMILES (Simplified molecular-input line-entry system) strings of the molecules from the AISD HOMO-LUMO database [2] were converted to a 3D atomistic structure and stored in a PDB file after preliminary geometry optimization using the Merck Molecular Force Field (MMFF94) in RDKit [3,4]. The primary information stored in the PDB file archive consists of Cartesian coordinates for each atom of the molecule in their 3D location in space, along with summary information about the structure, sequence, and experiment. We then performed molecular geometry optimization using the density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) method [5] in the electronic ground state, followed by single-point excited states calculations, as described below. We note that, since RDKit employs a random choice for the generation of molecular conformers, the molecular geometries obtained in this dataset could be different from the ones that were generated when the AISD HOMO-LUMO dataset was generated. The computed excitation energies and associated oscillator strengths can be converted to predict UV/Vis absorption spectra, where excitation energies correspond to absorption peak positions, and oscillator strengths are a good measure of the probability of absorption of visible or UV light in transitions between electronic ground and excited states. The conversion of SMILES strings to 3D Cartesian coordinates of fully DFTB-optimized molecules was successful for 10,502,904 out of 10,502,917 molecules. For these molecules, both geometry optimizations and excited states calculations were successful. The DFTB calculations did not complete for 13 molecules of the original AISD HOMO-LUMO dataset. We still provide information about the geometry of these molecules. The molecules are diverse for chemical compositions (which span 5 non-hydrogen elements: oxygen, carbon, nitrogen, fluorine, sulfur) and molecular size (the smallest molecule contains 5 non-hydrogen atoms, and the largest molecule contains 71 non-hydrogen atoms). The DFTB method [5] is an approximation to density functional theory (DFT), utilizing a minimal basis set in conjunction with a two-center approximation to the electronic Hamiltonian and overlap matrix elements. The DFTB total energy is the sum of an electronic and a repulsive energy contribution, and their calculation requires optimized electronic parameters and diatomic repulsive potential energy functions. All DFTB calculations were performed using the DFTB+ code [6] (version 21.2) and the wrapper for DFTB+ in the Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE) (version 3.22.1) [7], which performed an internal conversion of Cartesian coordinates from PDB to the .gen file format. For the geometry optimizations on the electronic ground state potential energy surface of the molecules, we have chosen the third-order DFTB (DFTB3) method [5c] and employed the matching 3ob set of electronic parameters and repulsive potentials [8]. The empirical γ-damping for hydrogen bond correction, and Grimme's D3 empirical dispersion correction with Becke-Johnson damping (D3(BJ)) [9] dispersion correction was included to improve the description of non-covalent interactions. For excited states single-point energy calculations, we employed the TD-DFTB method in conjunction with the DFTB2 method [5b] and the matching mio [5b,10] and halorg [11] parameter sets. We opted to request the simultaneous calculation of 50 excited states for singlet transition to investigate sufficient number of excited states, based on linear response theory using the Casida equation [Ref: T. A. Niehaus, S. Suhai, F. Della Sala, P Lugli, M. Elstner, G. Seifert, and Th. Frauenheim. Tight-binding approach to time-dependent density-functional response theory. Phys. Rev. B, 63:085108, 2001] and the ARPACK diagonalizer [R. B. Lehoucq, D. C. Sorensen, and C. Yang. Arpack users guide: Solution of large-scale eigenvalue problems by implicitly restarted arnoldi methods, 1997. 46, 51]. The dataset contains 1001 tar.gz files. Tar files are named as “ornl_aisd_ex_1.tar.gz†through “ornl_aisd_ex_1000.tar.gzâ€. Additionally, the 13 failed molecules are in “ornl_aisd_ex_unprocessed.tar.gzâ€. Except for the tar files listed below, each tar file contains 10,500 molecules. Tar files numbered 34, 121, 128, 352, 360, 429, 495, 509, 518, 627, 676, 668, and 862 contain 10,499 molecules each. The last tar file numbered 1000 contains 13,417 molecules. The total size of the uncompressed dataset is over 283 Gigabytes. The code for calculating the electronic excitation energies and statistical analysis of the dataset is provided at the following GitLab repository: https://github.com/ORNL/Analysis-of-Large-Scale-Molecular-Datasets-with-Python Calculating the UV spectrum of a molecule requires performing 3 main operations: 1. Converting the smiles string representation of a molecule into a geometric structure where each atom is assigned XYZ coordinates. The geometric structure is written to the file smiles.pdb. 2. Using smiles.pdb to compute the relaxed geometry of the molecule, which corresponds with the position of the atoms at the position of equilibrium at the ground state. This generates the files band.out, detailed.out, and geo_end.gen. 3. Using geo_end.gen to calculate the UV spectrum of the molecule which is written into the file EXC.DAT. Every molecule in the dataset has its own directory. The files contained in each molecule directory are as follows: 1. geo_end.gen 2. detailed.out 3. band.out 4. EXC.DAT 5. smiles.pdb REFERENCES [1] Niehaus, T. A.; Suhai, S.; Della Salla, F.; Lugli, P.; Elstner, M.; Seifert, G.; Frauenheim, Th. Tight-binding approach to time-dependent density-functional response theory. Phys. Rev. B, 2001, 63, 085108/1-9. [2] Blanchard, A.; Gounley, J.; Metha, K.; Yoo, P.; Irle, S. AISD HOMO-LUMO. DOI: 10.13139/ORNLNCCS/1869409 [3] RDKit: Cheminformatics and Machine Learning Software. 2013, [http://www.rdkit.org] [4] Tosco, P.; Stiefl, N. and Landrum, G. Bringing the MMFF force field to the RDKit: implementation and validation. J Cheminform. 2014, 6, 1–4. [5] a) Porezag, D.; Frauenheim, T.; Kohler, T.; Seifert, G.; Kaschner, Construction of tight-binding-like potentials on the basis of density-functional theory: Application to carbon, R. Phys. Rev. B 1995, 51, 12947-12957; b) Elstner, M.; Porezag, D.; Jungnickel, G.; Elsner, J.; Haugk, M.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S.; Seifert, G.; Phys. Rev. B 1998, 58, 7260-7268; c) Gaus, M.; Cui, Q.; Elstner, M. DFTB3: Extension of the Self-Consistent-Charge Density-Functional Tight-Binding Method (SCC-DFTB), J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2011, 7, 931-948; d) Cui, Q.; Elstner, M. Density functional tight binding: values of semi-empirical methods in an ab initio era, Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 2014, 16, 14368-14377. [6] Hourahine, B. et al. DFTB+, a software package for efficient approximate density functional theory based atomistic simulations, J. Chem. Phys. 2020, 152, 124101/1-19. [7] Larsen, A. H. et al. The atomic simulation environment—a Python library for working with atoms. J. Phys.: Cond. Matter 2017, 29, 273002. [8] Kubillus, M.; Kubar, T.; Gaus, M.; Rezac, J.; Elstner, M. Parameterization of the DFTB3 Method for Br, Ca, Cl, F, I, K, and Na in Organic and Biological Systems, J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2015, 11, 332-342. [9] Brandenburg, J. G.; Grimme, S. Accurate Modeling of Organic Molecular Crystals by Dispersion-Corrected Density Functional Tight Binding (DFTB), J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 2014, 5, 1785−1789. [10] a) Niehaus, T. A.; Elstner, M.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S. Application of an approximate density-functional method to sulfur containing compounds. J. Mol. Struct.: THEOCHEM 2001, 541, 185-94; b) Elstner, M.; Hobza, P.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S.; Kaxiras, E. Hydrogen bonding and stacking interactions of nucleic acid base pairs: A density-functional-theory based treatment. J. Chem. Phys. 2001, 114, 5149-55. [11] Kubar, T.; Bodrog, Z.; Gaus, M.; Köhler, C.; Aradi, B.; Frauenheim, Th.; Elstner, M. Parametrization of the SCC-DFTB Method for Halogens. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2013, 9, 2939-49.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗

Models to Incorporate Reaction Mechanisms into DG-OSPREY: Fixed-Bed Simulations for Organic Iodides Capture Using Ag 0 Z

As one of the most potent radioisotopes released during spent nuclear fuel reprocessing, 129 I is strictly regulated and must be removed before discharge. Organic iodides (primarily alkyl iodides with different chain lengths, i.e., CH 3 I, C 4 H 9 I, and C 12 H 25 I) comprise ~2% of the total iodine in the reprocessing off-gases and are primarily present in vessel off-gas (VOG). Reduced silver mordenite (Ag 0 Z) is predominantly considered for the removal of radioiodine; however, its capture performance and underlying interaction processes with long-chain organic iodides are not fully understood. Two major tasks were accomplished in this study. First, to improve upon the previous experimental studies where Ag 0 Z was used to capture CH 3 I, C 4 H 9 I, and C 12 H 25 I at different concentrations, we comprehensively investigated the corresponding capture mechanisms by characterizing fully loaded Ag 0 Z samples. Second, computational codes were implemented to perform fixed-bed simulations that account for transport and reaction mechanisms. Scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray analysis (SEM-EDX), powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), UV-visible diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (UV-vis DRS), and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) were conducted on Ag 0 Z samples that are saturated with I 2 , CH 3 I, C 4 H 9 I, and C 12 H 25 I), respectively. Results indicate that AgI is the predominant adsorption product regardless of the adsorbed iodine species, yet alkyl iodides with different carbon chain lengths may have different compositions of α- and γ-AgI. Synchrotron pair distribution function (PDF) measurements and TGA coupled with a Fourier transformed infrared detector (TGA FTIR) have been performed, and experimental data are currently analyzed. Results are expected to provide further insights into the adsorption mechanisms. The fixed-bed capture performance for CH 3 I was successfully simulated by solving mathematical equations that describe the underlying transport processes and adsorption reactions. The computational framework, Catalytic After Treatment System (CATS), that was originated in our research group, was used to solve the governing equations. Kinetic parameters, including the pore diffusivity and reaction rate constant were obtained by optimization techniques using data from thin-bed experiments performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The performance of a deep bed predicted using the optimized parameters showed promising agreement with the experimental data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Development and application of marginal likelihood optimization for integral parameter adjustment

When adjusting nuclear data with integral experiments, care must be taken that spurious adjustments are not made by assimilating poorly characterized integral parameters. If there are unaccounted for biases or poorly estimated uncertainties in the calculated and experimental values for an integral parameter, the Bayesian data assimilation may adjust the nuclear data in a manner that does not reflect the physics of the integral parameter. To identify and lessen the impact of these inconsistent integral parameters, in this study we present a Marginal Likelihood Optimization algorithm. In a data-driven way, the marginalized likelihood is used to modulate hyperparameter terms that decrease the influence of inconsistent integral parameters on the adjustment. The advantage of this approach over other methods in the literature is that it incorporates correlation information and does not remove an integral parameter from the adjustment. Herein, we present and motivate the algorithm, and apply it to an integral data assimilation case study.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Surrogate Modeling and Optimization of a Combustor with an Interdigitated Flushwall Injector

Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments (DACE) methods are applied and used to perform surrogate modeling and optimization of a simplified combustor flowpath with an interdigitated flushwall injector. The objectives of the optimization are the thrust potential and combustion efficiency, which are evaluated across a range of flight Mach numbers, duct heights, spanwise spacings, and injection angles. The focus of this work is to highlight the application of a sequential learning approach, in order to learn about the responses of the objective functions over the design space and to identify local regions of interest for further analysis. This approach is contrasted to a previous effort where only a single sampling set was used to fit surrogate models and perform optimization. The optimal solutions resulting from the previous and present approaches are different, due to surrogate model-guided local refinement of the design space allowed by the sequential learning method. The values of the global error estimates between the previous and present approaches are comparable, but the sequential method proved more computationally cost-effective. Further refinement in the optimal regions might be needed to improve predictive capability of surrogate models and to obtain the optimal solutions sets.

Rajiv R Shenoy↗