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DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Warped April Tag Impacts on Detection and Pose Estimation

This report evaluates the impact of geometric deformation on an April Tag, particularly when warped due to attachment on a curved surface, on its detectability and pose estimation performance. A comparative analysis was conducted using a flat April Tag as a control under identical experimental conditions, which involved recording video sequences with varying viewing angles. For detectability, the warped tag exhibited consistent detection failures at viewing angles beyond 40° and complete failures beyond 60°, whereas the flat tag maintained reliable detection across all angles. For pose estimation, measured by pose jitter (variation in rotation and translation), differences between the warped and flat tags were minimal and statistically insignificant, indicating robust performance even for the deformed tag. These findings suggest that while geometric warping reduces an April Tag’s detectability, its pose estimation accuracy remains relatively unaffected under the tested conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Cost Estimate Tool v2.0: Methodology and Usage

Information about home energy costs is essential for appraisers, lenders, and buyers, but reliable data are often unavailable in real estate transactions. To fill this gap, the National Laboratory of the Rockies developed the Energy Cost Estimate (ECE) tool. The tool provides flexible, data-driven estimates of annual household energy use and costs across the contiguous United States, using only a small number of inputs typically found in mortgage appraisals. This report presents the methodology behind version 2.0 of the ECE tool, demonstrates how users can generate estimates through its interface, and discusses its applications and limitations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Myriad World Baseline: Global Geodemographic Estimates

The LandScan Myriad World Baseline (MWB) method produces global, residential (nighttime/home-location) gridded geodemographic estimates based on 5-year age/gender cohorts—at 30-arcsecond (≈1 km) resolution. MWB is designed to fill gaps where detailed, georeferenced survey data (e.g., Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)) are missing or outdated, and to provide a baseline that can support human security analysis, including consequence assessment, “patterns of life” modeling, and scenario-based population futures. MWB’s workflow spatializes household-level age/gender characteristics from the GLOPOP-S dataset by conflating household and gridded expected relative wealth adapted from Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI), then adjusts them to a target year of interest. Age/gender estimates are then applied to harmonize lowest-administrative-level statistics with LandScan residential counts, yielding final geodemographic estimates. Two validation case studies are presented: Ghana (2021) and Tokyo/Kanagawa, Japan (2020), illustrating spatial variability in demographic cohorts and comparing MWB outputs to official gridded statistics. Results show close overall alignment relative to validation criteria including population pyramids and age-dependency ratios.

Tuccillo, Joe [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000259300943)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simultaneous estimation of multiple eigenvalues with short-depth quantum circuit on early fault-tolerant quantum computers

We introduce a multi-modal, multi-level quantum complex exponential least squares (MM-QCELS) method to simultaneously estimate multiple eigenvalues of a quantum Hamiltonian on early fault-tolerant quantum computers. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that the algorithm exhibits Heisenberg-limited scaling in terms of circuit depth and total cost. Notably, the proposed quantum circuit utilizes just one ancilla qubit, and with appropriate initial state conditions, it achieves significantly shorter circuit depths compared to circuits based on quantum phase estimation (QPE). Numerical results suggest that compared to QPE, the circuit depth can be reduced by around two orders of magnitude under several settings for estimating ground-state and excited-state energies of certain quantum systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous Forward-Backward Prony Estimation

Power system dynamic stability can be evaluated through the analysis of transient oscillations that occur following significant system events. One of the earliest methods for this type of study is Prony analysis, which estimates the system's electromechanical modes. While previous studies have highlighted advantages of performing Prony analysis on data in the forward and backward directions, the proposed method does so simultaneously. As a result, signal poles corresponding to electromechanical modes can be distinguished from spurious poles more reliably. The method also produces a single mode estimate, where independent application in the forward and backward directions would produce two estimates for each mode. The method is validated using simulated and measured power system data.

Follum, James D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal intrinsic alignment estimators in the presence of redshift-space distortions

We present estimators for quantifying intrinsic alignments in large spectroscopic surveys that efficiently capture line-of-sight (LOS) information while being relatively insensitive to redshift-space distortions (RSD). We demonstrate that changing the LOS integration range, pimax, as a function of transverse separation outperforms the conventional choice of a single pimax value. This is further improved by replacing the flat pimax cut with a LOS weighting based on shape projection and RSD. Although these estimators incorporate additional LOS information, they are projected correlations that exhibit signal-to-noise ratios comparable to 3D correlation functions, such as the IA quadrupole. Using simulations from Abacus Summit, we evaluate these estimators and provide recommended pimax values and weights for projected separations of 1 - 100 Mpc/h. These will improve measurements of intrinsic alignments in large cosmological surveys and the constraints they provide for both weak lensing and direct cosmological applications.

cosmology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automating methods for estimating metabolite volatility

The volatility of metabolites can influence their biological roles and inform optimal methods for their detection. Yet, volatility information is not readily available for the large number of described metabolites, limiting the exploration of volatility as a fundamental trait of metabolites. Here, we adapted methods to estimate vapor pressure from the functional group composition of individual molecules (SIMPOL.1) to predict the gas-phase partitioning of compounds in different environments. We implemented these methods in a new open pipeline called volcalc that uses chemoinformatic tools to automate these volatility estimates for all metabolites in an extensive and continuously updated pathway database: the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) that connects metabolites, organisms, and reactions. We first benchmark the automated pipeline against a manually curated data set and show that the same category of volatility (e.g., nonvolatile, low, moderate, high) is predicted for 93% of compounds. We then demonstrate how volcalc might be used to generate and test hypotheses about the role of volatility in biological systems and organisms. Specifically, we estimate that 3.4 and 26.6% of compounds in KEGG have high volatility depending on the environment (soil vs. clean atmosphere, respectively) and that a core set of volatiles is shared among all domains of life (30%) with the largest proportion of kingdom-specific volatiles identified in bacteria. With volcalc , we lay a foundation for uncovering the role of the volatilome using an approach that is easily integrated with other bioinformatic pipelines and can be continually refined to consider additional dimensions to volatility. The volcalc package is an accessible tool to help design and test hypotheses on volatile metabolites and their unique roles in biological systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inference, Prediction, & Entropy-Rate Estimation of Continuous-Time, Discrete-Event Processes

Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide new methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating them. The methods rely on an extension of Bayesian structural inference that takes advantage of neural network’s universal approximation power. Based on experiments with complex synthetic data, the methods are competitive with the state-of-the-art for prediction and entropy-rate estimation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)

The characterization of wind speed distribution and the optimal assessment of wind energy potential are critical factors in selecting a suitable site for wind power plants (WPP). The Weibull distribution law has been used extensively to analyze the wind characteristics of candidate WPP sites, and to estimate the available and deliverable energy. This paper presents a comparative study of five wind energy resource assessment methods as they applied to the context of wind sites in West Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated three numerical approaches, namely, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), the multilayer perceptron method (MLP), and support vector regression (SVR), to derive the distribution law of wind speeds and to optimally quantify the corresponding wind energy potential. Next, we compared these three approaches to two well-known Weibull distribution law-based methods: the empirical method of Justus (EMJ) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). Case study results indicated that the neural network-based methods, ANFIS and MLP, yielded the most accurate distribution fits and wind energy potential estimates, and consequently, are the most recommended methods for the wind sites in Togo and Benin. The orders of magnitude of the root mean squared error (RMSE) in estimating the recoverable energy using ANFIS were, respectively, 10-4 and 10-5 for Lomé and Cotonou, while MLP achieved an RMSE order of magnitude of 10-3 for both sites.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Allometric, Growth, and Biomass Estimation Models for Acacia dealbata Link.: A Case Study in Serra da Estrela Natural Park (Portugal)

Allometric, growth, and biomass estimation models for the quantification of missing parameters in trees are widely used to estimate the productivity of a stand. However, regarding species with lower economic interest, or exotic invasive species, the creation of these tools did not occur in the same way as for other species, lacking the development of relationships to allow a deeper study of these species. Thus, data were collected in a settlement of Acacia dealbata Link. in Portugal, in an area known for the current infestation of this species. After a bibliographic review, some of the identified models were tested to select those who best fit the characteristics of this stand, which were used to develop relationships that, based on the data collected, would be able to estimate parameters, such as height, volume, or mass. It was found that the models established, at least for the initial 20 years of the life of the trees, followed close to a linear model. However, the model still presents some weaknesses. For being considered an invasive species in Portugal, A. dealbata is frequently controlled, and for this reason it is very difficult to find trees older than 20 years.

Nunes, Leonel J. R. (ORCID:0000000154048163)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Efficient Mass Estimate at the Core of Strong Lensing Galaxy Clusters Using the Einstein Radius

In the era of large surveys, yielding thousands of galaxy clusters, efficient mass proxies at all scales are necessary in order to fully utilize clusters as cosmological probes. At the cores of strong lensing clusters, the Einstein radius can be turned into a mass estimate. This efficient method has been routinely used in literature, in lieu of detailed mass models; however, its scatter, assumed to be similar to 30%, has not yet been quantified. Here, we assess this method by testing it against ray-traced images of cluster-scale halos from the Outer RimN-body cosmological simulation. We measure a scatter of 13.9% and a positive bias of 8.8% in M (<θ E ), with no systematic correlation with total cluster mass, concentration, or lens or source redshifts. We find that increased deviation from spherical symmetry increases the scatter; conversely, where the lens produces arcs that cover a large fraction of its Einstein circle, both the scatter and the bias decrease. While spectroscopic redshifts of the lensed sources are critical for accurate magnifications and time delays, we show that for the purpose of estimating the total enclosed mass, the scatter introduced by source redshift uncertainty is negligible compared to other sources of error. Finally, we derive and apply an empirical correction that eliminates the bias, and reduces the scatter to 10.1% without introducing new correlations with mass, redshifts, or concentration. Our analysis provides the first quantitative assessment of the uncertainties in M (<θ E ), and enables its effective use as a core mass estimator of strong lensing galaxy clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Core Mass Estimates in Strong Lensing Galaxy Clusters Using a Single-halo Lens Model

The core mass of galaxy clusters is an important probe of structure formation. Here we evaluate the use of a single-halo model (SHM) as an efficient method to estimate the strong lensing cluster core mass, testing it with ray-traced images from the Outer Rim simulation. Unlike detailed lens models, the SHM represents the cluster mass distribution with a single halo and can be automatically generated from the measured lensing constraints. In this work we find that the projected core mass estimated with this method, $M_{\text{SHM}}$, has a scatter of 8.52% and a bias of 0.90% compared to the "true" mass within the same aperture. Our analysis shows no systematic correlation between the scatter or bias and the lens-source system properties. The bias and scatter can be reduced to 3.26% and 0.34%, respectively, by excluding models that fail a visual inspection test. We find that the SHM success depends on the lensing geometry, with single giant arc configurations accounting for most of the failed cases due to their limiting constraining power. When excluding such cases, we measure a scatter and bias of 3.88% and 0.84%, respectively. Finally, we find that when the source redshift is unknown, the model-predicted redshifts are overestimated, and the $M_{\text{SHM}}$ is underestimated by a few percent, highlighting the importance of securing spectroscopic redshifts of background sources. Our analysis provides a quantitative characterization of $M_{\text{SHM}}$, enabling its efficient use as a tool to estimate the strong lensing cluster core masses in the large samples, expected from current and future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pressure–Strain Interaction as the Energy Dissipation Estimate in Collisionless Plasma

The dissipative mechanism in weakly collisional plasma is a topic that pervades decades of studies without a consensus solution. We compare several energy dissipation estimates based on energy transfer processes in plasma turbulence and provide justification for the pressure–strain interaction as a direct estimate of the energy dissipation rate. The global and scale-by-scale energy balances are examined in 2.5D and 3D kinetic simulations. We show that the global internal energy increase and the temperature enhancement of each species are directly tracked by the pressure–strain interaction. The incompressive part of the pressure–strain interaction dominates over its compressive part in all simulations considered. The scale-by-scale energy balance is quantified by scale filtered Vlasov–Maxwell equations, a kinetic plasma approach, and the lag dependent von Kármán–Howarth equation, an approach based on fluid models. We find that the energy balance is exactly satisfied across all scales, but the lack of a well-defined inertial range influences the distribution of the energy budget among different terms in the inertial range. Therefore, the widespread use of the Yaglom relation in estimating the dissipation rate is questionable in some cases, especially when the scale separation in the system is not clearly defined. In contrast, the pressure–strain interaction balances exactly the dissipation rate at kinetic scales regardless of the scale separation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distance Estimate Method for Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars Using Infrared Spectral Energy Distributions

We present a method to estimate distances to asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the Galaxy, using spectral energy distributions (SEDs) in the near- and mid-infrared. By assuming that a given set of source properties (initial mass, stellar temperature, composition, and evolutionary stage) will provide a typical SED shape and brightness, sources are color matched to a distance-calibrated template and thereafter scaled to extract the distance. The method is tested by comparing the distances obtained to those estimated from very long baseline interferometry or Gaia parallax measurements, yielding a strong correlation in both cases. Additional templates are formed by constructing a source sample likely to be close to the Galactic center, and thus with a common, typical distance for calibration of the templates. These first results provide statistical distance estimates to a set of almost 15,000 Milky Way AGB stars belonging to the Bulge Asymmetries and Dynamical Evolution (BAaDE) survey, with typical distance errors of ±35%. With these statistical distances, a map of the intermediate-age population of stars traced by AGBs is formed, and a clear bar structure can be discerned, consistent with the previously reported inclination angle of 30° to the GC–Sun direction vector. These results motivate deeper studies of the AGB population to tease out the intermediate-age stellar distribution throughout the Galaxy, as well as determining statistical properties of the AGB population luminosity and mass-loss-rate distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Iterative and Self-Consistent Estimation of Degradation and Soiling Loss in PV Systems - A Case Study

In many parts of the world, soiling is a significant loss mechanism for PV energy production. Methods for accurately quantifying historical and current soiling losses are needed. Furthermore, state-of-the-art methods to estimate degradation rates based on production data do not handle soiling in a satisfactory manner. In order to accurately estimate either of these quantities, it is in many cases helpful to consider their combined effect on PV system performance. In this work we make use of the Combined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) algorithm, which iteratively decomposes time series of daily normalized energy yield into four components: a soiling ratio, a degradation trend, seasonal variations, and noise. We demonstrate the use of the model on field performance data from a utility-scale power plant in a high-soiling environment in the Middle East. We apply the algorithm to the temperature-corrected performance index of the DC power on inverter level, quantifying how soiling varies over time and through the plant. The irradiation-weighted average soiling loss in this plant is 2.3 %, with a median soiling rate of -0.086 %/day. Between the inverters in the site in study, estimated degradation rates range between -0.86 %/year and -0.15 %/year, with a mean rate of -0.48 %/year.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of methods to estimate aerosol effective radiative forcings in climate models

Abstract. Uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of climate primarily arises from the unknown contribution of aerosols, which impact radiative fluxes directly and through modifying cloud properties. Climate model simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures but perturbed atmospheric aerosol loadings allow for an estimate of how strongly the planet's radiative energy budget has been perturbed by the increase in aerosols since pre-industrial times. The approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique further decomposes the contributions to the direct forcing due to aerosol scattering and absorption and to the indirect forcing due to aerosol-induced changes in cloud scattering, amount, and absorption, as well as the effects of aerosols on surface albedo. Here we evaluate previously published APRP-derived estimates of aerosol effective radiative forcings from these simulations conducted in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and find that they are biased as a result of two large coding errors that – in most cases – fortuitously compensate. The most notable exception is the direct radiative forcing from absorbing aerosols, which is more than 40 % larger averaged across CMIP6 models in the present study. Correcting these biases eliminates the residuals and leads to better agreement with benchmark estimates derived from double calls to the radiation code. The APRP method – when properly implemented – remains a highly accurate and efficient technique for diagnosing aerosol ERF in cases where double radiation calls are not available, and in all cases it provides quantification of the individual contributors to the ERF that are highly useful but not otherwise available.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimating total attenuation using Rayleigh targets at cloud top: applications in multilayer and mixed-phase clouds observed by ground-based multifrequency radars

At millimeter wavelengths, attenuation by hydrometeors, such as liquid droplets or large snowflakes, is generally not negligible. When using multifrequency ground-based radar measurements, it is common practice to use the Rayleigh targets at cloud top as a reference in order to derive attenuation-corrected reflectivities and meaningful dual-frequency ratios (DFRs). By capitalizing on this idea, this study describes a new quality-controlled approach that aims at identifying regions of cloud where particle growth is negligible. The core of the method is the identification of a “Rayleigh plateau”, i.e., a large enough region near cloud top where the vertical gradient of DFR remains small. By analyzing co-located Ka–W band radar and microwave radiometer (MWR) observations taken at two European sites under various meteorological conditions, it is shown how the resulting estimates of differential path-integrated attenuation (ΔPIA) can be used to characterize hydrometeor properties. When the ΔPIA is predominantly produced by cloud liquid droplets, this technique alone can provide accurate estimates of the liquid water path. When combined with MWR observations, this methodology paves the way towards profiling the cloud liquid water, quality-flagging the MWR retrieval for rain and drizzle contamination, and/or estimating the snow differential attenuation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗