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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Markov reliability models for digital flight control systems

The reliability of digital flight control systems can often be accurately predicted using Markov chain models. The cost of numerical solution depends on a model's size and stiffness. Acyclic Markov models, a useful special case, are particularly amenable to efficient numerical solution. Even in the general case, instantaneous coverage approximation allows the reduction of some cyclic models to more readily solvable acyclic models. After considering the solution of single-phase models, the discussion is extended to phased-mission models. Phased-mission reliability models are classified based on the state restoration behavior that occurs between mission phases. As an economical approach for the solution of such models, the mean failure rate solution method is introduced. A numerical example is used to show the influence of fault-model parameters and interphase behavior on system unreliability.

Mcgough, John↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process‐Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process-based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data-constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process-based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam-derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO 2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field-measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter-response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post-calibration GPP R 2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R 2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

ecosys↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the US

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the U.S. - 4P Framework

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Framework For Optimization Of Resources And Economics Ecosystem

The Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics is a collection of software tools, models, and datasets acquired and developed under the Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program to enable analysis of technical and economic viability of myriad IES configurations. FORCE is the consolidating interface and data repository for all the IES toolsets ranging from macro technoeconomic analysis to transient process modeling and experimental validation for integrated energy systems.

Frick, KonorL↗
DOE OSTI2021

How production networks amplify economic growth

Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. In standard growth models, technology is treated in the aggregate, but an economy can also be viewed as a network in which producers buy goods, convert them to new goods, and sell the production to households or other producers. We develop predictions for how this network amplifies the effects of technological improvements as they propagate along chains of production, showing that longer production chains for an industry bias it toward faster price reduction and that longer production chains for a country bias it toward faster growth. These predictions are in good agreement with data from the World Input Output Database and improve with the passage of time. The results show that production chains play a major role in shaping the long-term evolution of prices, output growth, and structural change.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice’s whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cooperative Transmission Expansion Planning Experiment Data and Results

GO WEST is an open-source power grid modeling framework for U.S. Western Interconnection, which allows users to tailor the model depending on their research study and science questions. It covers 28 balancing authorities (BA) and 12 states in U.S. Western Interconnection. GO WEST allows users to select different number of nodes and come up with a simplified network by utilizing 10,000 nodal topology of U.S. Western Interconnection created by Texas A&M University. Users can try and select different number of nodes, mathematical formulations (linear programming vs. mixed-integer linear programming), transmission line limit scaling factors, and hurdle rate scaling factors. GO WEST offers a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC/ED) module to simulate grid operations on an hourly scale. In this sense, users can calibrate and validate their model versions by comparing model outputs to historical datasets. TEP is an open-source transmission capacity expansion model, built on GO WEST framework. It utilizes linear programming to optimize transmission capacity addition investment on existing lines within GO WEST framework. In this sense, TEP model only increases the thermal capacity of existing transmission lines and does not add new lines to the system, which leaves the topology preserved. TEP minimizes the total cost of the system which comprises the operational cost of satisfying electricity demand (i.e., generation cost), cost of loss of load (i.e., unserved energy), cost of power flow, and cost of new transmission capacity additions (i.e., investment cost). In order to use TEP model, users need to create scenarios with GO WEST framework. In this analysis, outputs from several models are used to create future inputs to GO WEST and TEP models, including GCAM-USA, TELL, CERF and reV. This dataset includes experiment inputs and outputs from three different transmission expansion scenarios (cooperative, intermediate, and individual) for 2019 and 2059. For 2019, a base scenario to illustrate the default (i.e., historical) power grid operations is also included. This study utilizes rcp45hotter_ssp3 scenario from a previous version of GCAM-USA simulations. Sources of the shapefiles in supplementary data are HIFLD Open and U.S. Energy Atlas. Please see the README file for a detailed description of the main and supplementary data.

Capacity Expansion Model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carbon storage cost modeling for the offshore Gulf of America

At the 2025 Annual University of Houston ROICE Workshop, Dr. Chung Shih delivered an invited talk titled "Carbon Storage Cost Modeling for the Offshore Gulf of America." This presentation highlighted the capabilities of NETL's offshore saline carbon storage cost model (CO2_S_COM_Offshore) in evaluating the economics of both new and reused storage infrastructure. While primarily intended for screening-level analysis, the model comprehensively considers critical components such as onshore facilities, pipelines connecting shore to offshore platforms, main platforms, and satellite platforms. Additionally, its integrated cashflow model encompasses the entire project lifecycle, from initial site screening to post-injection site care, providing users with a thorough understanding of how various operational or financial parameters impact project economics.

cost modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

What drives embodied carbon policy? A global perspective on adoption

Abstract Embodied carbon refers to the greenhouse gas emission associated with the lifecycle of buildings. Embodied carbon policies are critical for addressing the environmental impact of construction materials and advancing climate goals. Despite their importance, the adoption of embodied carbon policies has been limited globally, influenced by economic, environmental, institutional, and trade factors. This study employs structural equation modeling to analyze 37 countries, testing ten hypotheses across four categorical factors. The base model reveals the significant influence of environmental vulnerability and institutional frameworks on policy adoption, while robustness models confirm the critical role of trade dependencies and economic competitiveness in shaping national embodied carbon strategies. Findings underscore that countries with high climate vulnerability and strong institutional support are more likely to adopt embodied carbon policies. Conversely, trade-reliant nations face challenges balancing competitiveness and sustainability. Policy implications suggest the need for international collaboration to align trade policies with carbon reduction goals, targeted support for vulnerable nations, and the integration of embodied carbon considerations into existing climate frameworks. These results offer a roadmap for policymakers to design more effective and equitable embodied carbon policies, fostering global progress toward sustainable construction and decarbonization.

Hu, Ming (ORCID:0000000325831161)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in Tracking Waste Reduction Performance Improvement in Manufacturing Plants

The recently released Circularity Gap Report 2023 by the Circle Economy Foundation states that the circularity score for the global economy is declining. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) tracked municipal solid waste from 1960 to 2018 and found that 50% of the waste was destined for landfills. EPA estimates that US industry is responsible for 2.7 Gt of solid nonhazardous waste annually in the US mostly linear economy model. The circular economy framework aims to decouple economic value generation from the extraction of virgin materials from nature. The linear model of material extraction and disposal at the end of life is highly unsustainable. Manufacturing companies are adopting ambitious waste reduction targets to achieve sustainability. Through the Better Plants program, US DOE has established the Waste Reduction Network, which offers technical assistance to partners to achieve their ambitious waste reduction goals. Basic requirements of establishing a target include identifying a baseline, quantifying waste performance, and measuring progress over time. One problem faced by industry is unstandardized metrics for quantifying waste performance that may not be well suited to demonstrate progress. This paper studies traditional methods used to measure waste performance and highlights advantages, disadvantages, and limitations of each method. It also examines the suitability of applying the methods in different manufacturing circumstances. Finally, the paper presents a case study of a large manufacturer that faced inconsistencies in its tracked measurement metric. A solution was proposed and implemented to alter the methodology to enable more accurate waste performance tracking against a baseline.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. In this work, we find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Numerical simulation of the circulation of the atmosphere of Titan

A three dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) of Titan's atmosphere is described. Initial results obtained with an economical two dimensional (2D) axisymmetric version of the model presented a strong superrotation in the upper stratosphere. Because of this result, a more general numerical study of superrotation was started with a somewhat different version of the GCM. It appears that for a slowly rotating planet which strongly absorbs solar radiation, circulation is dominated by global equator to pole Hadley circulation and strong superrotation. The theoretical study of this superrotation is discussed. It is also shown that 2D simulations systemically lead to instabilities which make 2D models poorly adapted to numerical simulation of Titan's (or Venus) atmosphere.

Hourdin, F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Tamsin L. Edwards↗
DOE OSTI2022

PyPVRPM: Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model in Python

The ability to perform accurate techno-economic analysis of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is essential for bankability and investment purposes. Most energy yield models assume an almost flawless operation (i.e., no failures); however, realistically, components fail and get repaired stochastically. This package, PyPVRPM, is a Python translation and improvement of the Language Kit (LK) based PhotoVoltaic Reliability Performance Model (PVRPM), which was first developed at Sandia National Laboratories in Goldsim software (Granata et al., 2011) (Miller et al., 2012). PyPVRPM allows the user to define a PV system at a specific location and incorporate failure, repair, and detection rates and distributions to calculate energy yield and other financial metrics such as the levelized cost of energy and net present value (Klise, Lavrova, et al., 2017). Our package is a simulation tool that uses NREL’s Python interface for System Advisor Model (SAM) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020b) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020a) to evaluate the performance of a PV plant throughout its lifetime by considering component reliability metrics. Besides the numerous benefits from migrating to Python (e.g., speed, libraries, batch analyses), it also expands on the failure and repair processes from the LK version by including the ability to vary monitoring strategies. These failures, repairs, and monitoring processes are based on user-defined distributions and values, enabling a more accurate and realistic representation of cost and availability throughout a PV system’s lifetime.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

2023 FORCE Development Status Update

Technical and economic analysis of integrated energy systems (IES) using software models is a complex process requiring multiple commodity market decision analysis, optimal control, process modeling, and stochastic analysis. Many assumptions used in traditional energy analysis tools do not hold in future energy markets with significant storage and variable renewable energy sources (VRE), let alone with multiple commodity markets. Capturing these intricate elements for accurate techno-economic analysis of IES led to the development of the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) tool suite under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Energy Systems crosscutting technology program. With the aim of a full framework release in 2025, many improvements to the FORCE tool suite were developed in fiscal year 2023 (FY23). These improvements broadly fit into three focuses for development of FORCE: capability, accessibility, and reliability. Capability refers to the ability of FORCE to accurately model the technical and economic viability of various IES. Accessibility refers to ease-of-use for new and existing IES analysts to efficiently set up, analyze, and produce results using FORCE. Reliability refers to the consistency of the software, allowing consistency to analysis regardless of erstwhile changes to the software. In addition to many smaller changes, there are three major capability improvements in FORCE in FY23. In summary, FORCE developments in FY23 have moved us close to all the capability requirements for FORCE 1.0 to be delivered in FY25. Inclusion of Bayesian optimization, resilience metrics, and levelized cost analysis expand the capability, accessibility, and reliability of FORCE.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗