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NASA NTRS1993

Undecidability in macroeconomics

In this paper we study the difficulty of solving problems in economics. For this purpose, we adopt the notion of undecidability from recursion theory. We show that certain problems in economics are undecidable, i.e., cannot be solved by a Turing Machine, a device that is at least as powerful as any computational device that can be constructed. In particular, we prove that even in finite closed economies subject to a variable initial condition, in which a social planner knows the behavior of every agent in the economy, certain important social planning problems are undecidable. Thus, it may be impossible to make effective policy decisions. Philosophically, this result formally brings into question the Rational Expectations Hypothesis which assumes that each agent is able to determine what it should do if it wishes to maximize its utility. We show that even when an optimal rational forecast exists for each agency (based on the information currently available to it), agents may lack the ability to make these forecasts. For example, Lucas describes economic models as 'mechanical, artificial world(s), populated by ... interacting robots'. Since any mechanical robot can be at most as computationally powerful as a Turing Machine, such economies are vulnerable to the phenomenon of undecidability.

Chandra, Siddharth↗

NASA NTRS1992

Electrical power integration for lunar operations

Electrical power for future lunar operations is expected to range from a few kilowatts for an early human outpost to many megawatts for industrial operations in the 21st century. All electrical power must be imported as chemical, solar, nuclear, or directed energy. The slow rotation of the Moon and consequent long lunar night impose severe mass penalties on solar systems needing night delivery from storage. The cost of power depends on the cost of the power systems the cost of its transportation to the Moon, operating cost, and, of course, the life of the power system. The economic feasibility of some proposed lunar ventures depends in part on the cost of power. This paper explores power integration issues, costs, and affordability in the context of the following representative lunar ventures: (1) early human outpost (10 kWe); (2) early permanent lunar base, including experimental ISMU activities (100 kWe); (3) lunar oxygen production serving an evolved lunar base (500 kWe); (4) lunar base production of specialized high-value products for use on Earth (5 kWe); and (5) lunar mining and production of helium-3 (500 kWe). The schema of the paper is to project likely costs of power alternatives (including integration factors) in these power ranges, to select the most economic, to determine power cost contribution to the product or activities, to estimate whether the power cost is economically acceptable, and, finally, to offer suggestions for reaching acceptability where cost problems exist.

Woodcock, Gordon↗

NASA NTRS1992

Oblique wing supersonic transport concepts

The economic and technical features of two SST concepts that offer the potential of reducing the impact of the environmental constraints on the aircraft design and performance are presented. The potential economic performance of these aircraft is referenced to equivalent passenger size subsonic designs employing consistent design guidelines and assumptions. Total operating cost and airline return on investment are utilized for the economic comparisons.

Galloway, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS1993

Technology transfer. Determining industry needs: A guide for communities

This Guide was developed in accordance with the Memorandum of Understanding between the NASA George C. Marshall Space Flight Center and the following States: Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, West Virginia. The economic welfare of individual communities is currently a matter of considerable interest. Concern for the position of US industry in the competitive world marketplace is a matter of growing concern as well. This 'guide' describes a process whereby communities may seize the opportunity to improve their own economic destiny. The method described involves linking the technology needs of existing industries to the technologies which are available from Federal Laboratories. Community technology transfer is an 'action possibility' which allows individual citizen groups to do something tangible to improve the economic climate of the places where they live and work. The George C. Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama is pledged to promote and encourage such efforts, and stands ready to help communities both large and small in that regard.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1993

The high speed civil transport: A technology challenge

It has been over 17 years since Concorde entered service with British Airways and Air France. The thirteen production aircraft are still safely operating and may extend their service life into the next century. We can appreciate the technical success Concorde has achieved. However, from the onset the aircraft was unable to achieve overall economic viability. Currently the aircraft does generate a yearly profit for British Airways which is privatized. Unacceptable airport noise and sonic boom overland levels were detrimental to the aircraft performing between many worldwide city pairs. On the horizon appears a possible successor to Concorde that will need to demonstrate environmental acceptability and economic viability shortly after the turn of the century. This vehicle has been labelled the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). I believe that we can overcome the environmental and economic goals based on encouraging market demand forecasts and technology improvements that are materializing in current research and development programs.

Mortlock, Alan K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Requirements of blue, UV-A, and UV-B light for normal growth of higher plants, as assessed by action spectra for growth and related phenomena

Artificial lighting is very important for experimental purposes, as well as for the practical use of plants when not enough sunlight is available. To grow green higher plants in their normal forms under artificial lighting constructing efficient and economically reasonable lighting systems is not an easy task. One possible approach would be to simulate sunlight in intensity and the radiation spectrum, but its high construction and running costs are not likely to allow its use in practice. Sunlight may be excessive in irradiance in some or all portions of the spectrum. Reducing irradiance and removing unnecessary wavebands might lead to an economically feasible light source. However, removing or reducing a particular waveband from sunlight for testing is not easy. Another approach might be to find the wavebands required for respective aspects of plant growth and to combine them in a proper ratio and intensity. The latter approach seems more practical and economical, and the aim of this Workshop lies in advancing this approach. I summarize our present knowledge on the waveband requirements of higher plants for the regions of blue, UV-A and UV-B.

Hashimoto, T.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Second Generation)

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based mode with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that are envisioned for ASAC. We describe a second-generation Air Carrier Investment Model that meets these requirements. The enhanced model incorporates econometric results from the supply and demand curves faced by U.S.-scheduled passenger air carriers. It uses detailed information about their fleets in 1995 to make predictions about future aircraft purchases. It enables analysts with the ability to project revenue passenger-miles flown, airline industry employment, airline operating profit margins, numbers and types of aircraft in the fleet, and changes in aircraft manufacturing employment under various user-defined scenarios.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗

NASA NTRS1998

The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Third Generation)

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based model with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models flat are envisioned for ASAC.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗

NASA NTRS1998

Status of NASA High-Speed Research Program

This paper provides an overview of the NASA High-Speed Research (HSR) Program dedicated to establishing the technology foundation to support the US transport industry's decision for an environmentally acceptable, economically viable 300 passenger, 5000 n.mi., Mach 2.4 aircraft. The HSR program, begun in 1990, is supported by a team of US aerospace companies. The international economic stakes are high. The projected market for more than 500 High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) airplanes introduced between the years 2000 and 2015 translates to more than $200 billion in aircraft sales, and the potential of 140,000 new jobs. The paper addresses the history of supersonic commercial air transportation beginning with the Concorde and TU-144 developments in the early 1960 time period. The technology goals for the HSR program are derived from market study results, projections on environmental requirements, and technical goals for each discipline area referenced to the design and operational features of the Concorde. Progress since the inception of the program is reviewed and a summary of some of the lessons learned will be highlighted. An outline is presented of the remaining technological challenges. Emphasis in this paper will be on the traditional aeronautical technologies that lead to higher performance to ensure economic viability. Specific discussion will center around aerodynamic performance, flight deck research, materials and structures development and propulsion systems. The environmental barriers to the HSCT and that part of the HSR program that addresses those technologies are reviewed and assessed in a companion paper.

Allen H Whitehead Jr↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.

Gaier, Eric M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Conference Proceedings of the 1997 Air Transport Research Group (ATRG) of the WCTR Society

The Aviation Institute University of Nebraska at Omaha (UNO) Monograph series has published the Conference Proceedings of the 1997 Air Transport Research Group (ATRG) of the World Conference on Transportation Research Society (WCTR) volume 1, number 3. The topics included in this document are: 1) Industrial Reform and Air Transport Development in China; 2) The Economic Effects of Airline Deregulation and the Open-Sky Policy of Korea; 3) The Economic Effects of Airline Deregulation and the Open-Sky Policy of Korea; 4) "Open Skies" in India-Is the policy succeeding? 5) The Japanese Domestic Air Fares under the Regulatory Regime: What will be expected after the revision of current charging system? 6) The Competitive Position of Airline Networks; and 7) Air Transport and Regional Economic Development in the European Union.

Own, Tae Hoon↗

NASA NTRS1998

Collaborative Arrival Planning: Data Sharing and User Preference Tools

Air traffic growth and air carrier economic pressures have motivated efforts to increase the flexibility of the air traffic management process and change the relationship between the air traffic control service provider and the system user. One of the most visible of these efforts is the U.S. government/industry "free flight" initiative, in which the service provider concentrates on safety and cross-airline fairness, and the user on their business objectives and operating preferences, including selecting their own path and speed in real-time. In the terminal arrival phase of flight, severe restrictions and rigid control are currently placed on system users, typically without regard for individual user operational preferences. Airborne delays applied to arriving aircraft into capacity constrained airports are imposed on a first-come, first-serve basis, and thus do not allow the system user to plan for or prioritize late arrivals, or to economically optimize their arrival sequence. A central tenant of the free-flight operating paradigm is collaboration between service providers and users in reaching air traffic management decisions. Such collaboration would be particularly beneficial to an airline's "hub" operation, where off-schedule arrival aircraft are a consistent problem, as they cause serious air-port ramp difficulties, rippling airline scheduling effects, and result in large economic inefficiencies. Greater collaboration can also lead to increased airport capacity and decrease the severity of over-capacity rush periods. In the NASA Collaborative Arrival Planning (CAP) project, both independent exchange of real-time data between the service provider and system user and collaborative decision support tools are addressed. Data exchange of real-time arrival scheduling, airspace management, and air carrier fleet data between the FAA service provider and an air carrier is being conducted and evaluated. Collaborative arrival decision support tools to allow intra-airline arrival preferences are being developed and simulated. The CAP project is part of and leveraged from the NASA/FAA Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS), a fielded set of decision support tools that provide computer generated advisories for both enroute and terminal area controllers to manage and control arrival traffic more efficiently. In this paper, the NASA Collaborative Arrival Planning project is outlined and recent results detailed, including the real-time use of CTAS arrival scheduling data by a major air carrier and simulations of tactical and strategic user preference decision support tools.

Zelenka, Richard E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Integrated Air Transportation System Evaluation Tool

Throughout U.S. history, our nation has generally enjoyed exceptional economic growth, driven in part by transportation advancements. Looking forward 25 years, when the national highway and skyway systems are saturated, the nation faces new challenges in creating transportation-driven economic growth and wealth. To meet the national requirement for an improved air traffic management system, NASA developed the goal of tripling throughput over the next 20 years, in all weather conditions while maintaining safety. Analysis of the throughput goal has primarily focused on major airline operations, primarily through the hub and spoke system.However, many suggested concepts to increase throughput may operate outside the hub and spoke system. Examples of such concepts include the Small Aircraft Transportation System, civil tiltrotor, and improved rotorcraft. Proper assessment of the potential contribution of these technologies to the domestic air transportation system requires a modeling capability that includes the country's numerous smaller airports, acting as a fundamental component of the National Air space System, and the demand for such concepts and technologies. Under this task for NASA, the Logistics Management Institute developed higher fidelity demand models that capture the interdependence of short-haul air travel with other transportation modes and explicitly consider the costs of commercial air and other transport modes. To accomplish this work, we generated forecasts of the distribution of general aviation based aircraft and GA itinerant operations at each of nearly 3.000 airport based on changes in economic conditions and demographic trends. We also built modules that estimate the demand for travel by different modes, particularly auto, commercial air, and GA. We examined GA demand from two perspectives: top-down and bottom-up, described in detail.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗

NASA NTRS2003

Small Aircraft Transportation System Simulation Analysis of the HVO and ERO Concepts

It is acknowledged that the aviation and aerospace industries are primary forces influencing the industrial development and economic well being of the United States and many countries around the world. For decades the US national air transportation system has been the model of success - safely and efficiently moving people, cargo, goods and services and generating countless benefits throughout the global community; however, the finite nature of the system and many of its components is becoming apparent. Without measurable increases in the capacity of the national air transportation system, delays and service delivery failures will eventually become intolerable. Although the recent economic slowdown has lowered immediate travel demands, that trend is reversing and cargo movement remains high. Research data indicates a conservative 2.5-3.0% annual increase in aircraft operations nationwide through 2017. Such growth will place additional strains upon a system already experiencing capacity constraints. The stakeholders of the system will continue to endure ever-increasing delays and abide lesser levels of service to many lower population density areas of the country unless more efficient uses of existing and new transportation resources are implemented. NASA s Small Aircraft Transportation System program (SATS) is one of several technologies under development that are aimed at using such resources more effectively. As part of this development effort, this report is the first in a series outlining the findings and recommendations resulting from a comprehensive program of multi-level analyses and system engineering efforts undertaken by NASA Langley Research Center s Systems Analysis Branch (SAB). These efforts are guided by a commitment to provide systems-level analysis support for the SATS program. Subsequent efforts will build upon this early work to produce additional analyses and benefits studies needed to provide the technical and economic basis for national investment and policy decisions related to further development and potential deployment of a small aircraft transportation system. This report primarily serves two purposes. First, it presents results attained from an initial evaluation and analysis of the Higher Volume Operations (HVO) and EnRoute Operations (ERO) concepts - both designated operational capabilities within the SATS Program s Concept of Operations (CONOPS) document. It further outlines areas of the concepts that would benefit from follow-on analyses and system engineering efforts. It is intended that these processes will aid continued maturation of the concepts and promote additional studies of their effects and influences in combination with other designated CONOPS currently under development. In essence, it establishes a baseline of data upon which subsequent analyses and studies can be built and identifies performance characteristics the concept must exhibit in order to provide, at minimum, levels of safety and usage equal to or better than the current system.

Millsaps, Gary D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Spatial Information Technology Center at Fulton-Montgomery Community College

The Spatial Information Technology Center (SITC) at Fulton-Montgomery Community College (FMCC) continued to fulfill its mission and charter by successfully completing its third year of operations under Congressional funding and NASA sponsorship. Third year operations (01 Oct 02 - 30 Sep 03) have been funded and conducted utilizing two authorized Research Grants NAG 13-00043 (via a one-year no-cost extension expiring Sep 03) and NAG 13-02053 (one-year no-cost extension expiring Sep 04). Drawdowns and reporting of fiscal activities for SlTC operations continues to pass through the Institute for the Application of Geo-spatial Technology (IAGT) at Cayuga Community College in Auburn, New York. Fiscal activity of the Center is reported quarterly via SF 272 to IAGT, thus this report contains only a budgetary overview and forecast of future expenditures for the remaining funds of NAG 13 - 02053. Funds from NAG 13 - 00043 were exhausted during the fourth quarter of fiscal year FY02 - 03, which necessitated initial draw down of NAG 13 - 02053. The IAGT receives no compensation for administrative costs as authorized and approved by NASA in each award budget. This report also includes the necessary addendums for each NAG award, as required by federal guidelines, though no reportable activities took place within this report period. Attached are the signed Report of New Technology/lnventions and a Final Property Report identifying qualifying equipment purchased by the Center. As an academic, economic and workforce development oriented program, the Center has made significant strides in bringing the technology, knowledge and applications of the spatial information technology field to the region it serves. Through the mission of the Center, the region's educational, economic development and work force communities have become increasingly educated to the benefits of spatial (Geospatial) technology, particularly in the region's K-12 arena. SlTC continues to positively affect the region's education, employment and economic development, while expanding its services and operations designed to be customer driven, growing infrastructure and affecting systemic change.

Flinton, Michael E.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Contingency Power Study for Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor

NASA has concluded from previous studies that the twin engine tiltrotor is the most economical and technologically viable rotorcraft for near-term civil applications. Twin engine civil rotorcraft must be able to hover safely on one engine in an emergency. This emergency power requirement generally results in engines 20 to 50 percent larger than needed for normal engine operation, negatively impacting aircraft economics. This study identifies several contingency power enhancement concepts, and quantifies their potential to reduce aircraft operating costs. Many unique concepts were examined, and the selected concepts are simple, reliable, and have a high potential for near term realization. These engine concepts allow extremely high turbine temperatures during emergency operation by providing cooling to the power turbine and augmenting cooling of both turbines and structural hardware. Direct operating cost are reduced 3 to percent, which could yield a 30 to 80 percent increase in operating profits. The study consists of the definition of an aircraft economics model and a baseline engine, and an engine concept screening study, and a preliminary definition of the selected concepts. The selected concepts are evaluated against the baseline engine, and the critical technologies and development needs are identified, along with applications for this technology.

D'Angelo, Marin M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Surfactant-Assisted Coal Liquefaction

Obtaining liquid fuels from coal which are economically competitive with those obtained from petroleum based sources is a significant challenge for the researcher as well as the chemical industry. Presently, the economics of coal liquefaction are not favorable because of relatively intense processing conditions (temperatures of 430 degrees C and pressures of 2200 psig), use of a costly catalyst, and a low quality product slate of relatively high boiling fractions. The economics could be made more favorable by achieving adequate coal conversions at less intense processing conditions and improving the product slate. A study has been carried out to examine the effect of a surfactant in reducing particle agglomeration and improving hydrodynamics in the coal liquefaction reactor to increase coal conversions...

Hickey, Gregory S.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Processing of Space Resources to Enable the Vision for Space Exploration

The NASA human exploration program as directed by the Vision for Exploration (G.W. Bush, Jan. 14,2004) includes developing methods to process materials on the Moon and beyond to enable safe and affordable human exploration. Processing space resources was first popularized (O Neill 1976) as a technically viable, economically feasible means to build city sized habitats and multi GWatt solar power satellites in Earth/Moon space. Although NASA studies found the concepts to be technically reasonable in the post Apollo era (AMES 1979), the front end costs the limits of national or corporate investment. In the last decade analysis of space on has shown it to be economically justifiable even on a relatively small mission or commercial scenario basis. The Mars Reference Mission analysis (JSC 1997) demonstrated that production of return propellant on Mars can enable an order of magnitude decrease in the costs of human Mars missions. Analysis (by M. Duke 2003) shows that production of propellant on the Moon for the Earth based satellite industries can be commercially viable after a human lunar base is established. Similar economic analysis (Rapp 2005) also shows large cost benefits for lunar propellant production for Mars missions and for the use of lunar materials for the production of photovoltaic power (Freundlich 2005). Recent technologies could enable much smaller initial costs, to achieve mass, energy, and life support self sufficiency, than were achievable in the 1970s. If the Exploration Vision program is executed with a front end emphasis on space resources, it could provide a path for human self reliance beyond Earth orbit. This path can lead to an open, non-zero-sum, future for humanity with safer human competition with limitless growth potential. This paper discusses extension of the analysis for space resource utilization, to determine the minimum systems necessary for human self sufficiency and growth off Earth. Such a approach can provide a more compelling and comprehensive path to space resource utilization.

Curreri, Peter A.↗