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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Loss Factors for Small Distributed Wind Turbines Based on Field Data in the United States

While wind energy production loss due to unavailability, environmental impacts, curtailment, and other causes has been studied and characterized at the utility-scale wind farm level, observation-based characterization of project loss is lacking for distributed wind energy, particularly for projects involving small wind turbines. Contemporary tools and research that support pre-construction distributed wind energy characterization present a wide range of default loss factors to convert gross energy estimates to net: 7-18%. We hypothesize that we can use generation observations from operational distributed wind projects to develop more accurate representations of loss. Using a density-based filtering technique on distributed wind power generation timeseries, we determine periods of typical performance and use them with regression algorithms in a measure-correlate-predict fashion to simulate what the generation would have been during periods of atypical or unreported performance. From there, the actual versus predicted generation leads to the establishment of observation-informed loss factors (median = 17%) for small, single turbine installation distributed wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Residual mean field model of valence quarks in the nucleon

Abstract We develop a non-perturbative model for valence parton distribution functions (PDFs) based on the mean field interactions of valence quarks in the nucleonic interior. The main motivation for the model is to obtain a mean field description of the valence quarks as a baseline to study the short range quark–quark interactions that generate the high x tail of PDFs. The model is based on the separation of the valence three-quark cluster and residual system in the nucleon. Then the nucleon structure function is calculated within the effective light-front diagrammatic approach introducing nonperturbative light-front valence quark and residual wave functions. Within the model a new relation is obtained between the position, $$x_p$$ x p , of the peak of $$xq_V(x)$$ x q V ( x ) distribution of the valence quark and the effective mass of the residual system, $$m_R$$ m R , in the form: $$x_{p} \approx {1\over 4} (1-{m_R\over m_N})$$ x p ≈ 1 4 ( 1 - m R m N ) at starting $$Q^2$$ Q 2 . This relation explains the difference in the peak positions for d- and u-quarks through the expected difference of residual masses for valence d- and u-quark distributions. The parameters of the model are fixed by fitting the calculated valence quark distributions to the phenomenological PDFs. This allowed us to estimate the overall mean field contribution in baryonic and momentum sum rules for valence d- and u-quarks. Finally, the evaluated parameters of the non-perturbative wave functions of valence 3q-cluster and residual system can be used in calculation of other quantities such as nucleon form factors, generalized partonic and transverse momentum distributions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Rooftop Solar Potential in Chernihiv and Lviv, Ukraine, and Efficacy of High-Resolution 3D Data Digital Twins [Slides]

NREL evaluated rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) siting opportunities in the cities of Chernihiv and Lviv, Ukraine, leveraging very-high-resolution 3D elevation data to calculate technical potential. The study assessed total rooftop solar capacity and annual energy production. In Chernihiv and Lviv, 116,503 buildings were analyzed for their rooftop solar potential. The buildings in the study areas include a mixture of residential, commercial, and industrial buildings, characterized by diverse roof shapes and sizes. The total estimated rooftop solar capacity is 332 MWDC in Chernihiv and 873 MWDC in Lviv with annual energy production up to 376.2 GWhDC in Chernihiv and 995.5 GWhDC in Lviv. This accounting provides a clear estimate of the potential rooftop solar installations that could be realized under optimal conditions, considering both technical constraints and the geographic distribution of available rooftop space. Related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NREL estimates loss from buildings damaged or destroyed of 2,754 buildings, 20.15 MWDC of capacity, and 22,869 MWhDC of annual energy production in Chernihiv as well as a loss of 1,316 buildings, 34.49 MWDC of capacity, and 39,369 MWhDC of annual energy production in Lviv. The study also assessed the feasibility of adapting this methodology on a national scale using either simulated digital surface models (DSMs) or a digital twin approach. While the very-high-resolution DSM provided more precise results, the simulated DSM demonstrated reasonable accuracy for broader applications in modeling aggregated distributed solar supply. The feasibility of using a digital twin for Ukraine's national rooftop solar potential is considered promising, with certain limitations in areas with highly variable building stock and heavy war damage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sputter-deposited low-stress boron carbide films

Significant challenges have been faced in the manufacturing of low-stress B 4 C films. Here, we demonstrate a set of process parameters for direct-current magnetron sputter deposition of smooth, high-purity, amorphous B 4 C films with near-zero total residual stress and with thicknesses up to 10 μm. Films are characterized by a combination of high-energy ion scattering, x-ray diffraction, electron microscopy, and stress measurements based on substrate curvature. In order to facilitate the process transfer to other sputtering geometries, the favorable deposition conditions are correlated with distributions of landing energies and incident angles of depositing species estimated by Monte Carlo simulations of ballistic collisions and gas phase atomic transport. Based on such simulations, a decrease in compressive stress with increasing Ar working gas pressure is attributed to the corresponding broadening of the angular distribution of depositing species and associated atomic shadowing effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the small-scale deposition of snow onto structured Arctic sea ice during a MOSAiC storm using snowBedFoam 1.0.

The remoteness and extreme conditions of the Arctic make it a very difficult environment to investigate. In these polar regions covered by sea ice, the wind is relatively strong due to the absence of obstructions and redistributes a large part of the deposited snow mass, which complicates estimates for precipitation hardly distinguishable from blowing or drifting snow. Moreover, the snow mass balance in the sea ice system is still poorly understood, notably due to the complex structure of its surface. Quantitatively assessing the snow distribution on sea ice and its connection to the sea ice surface features is an important step to remove the snow mass balance uncertainties (i.e., snow transport contribution) in the Arctic environment. In this work we introduce snowBedFoam 1.0., a physics-based snow transport model implemented in the open-source fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM. We combine the numerical simulations with terrestrial laser scan observations of surface dynamics to simulate snow deposition in a MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) sea ice domain with a complicated structure typical for pressure ridges. The results demonstrate that a large fraction of snow accumulates in their vicinity, which compares favorably against scanner measurements. However, the approximations imposed by the numerical framework, together with potential measurement errors (precipitation), give rise to quantitative inaccuracies, which should be addressed in future work. The modeling of snow distribution on sea ice should help to better constrain precipitation estimates and more generally assess and predict snow and ice dynamics in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Basics

The maximum likelihood estimation is a general estimation procedure. It is often compared to estimation procedures like the ordinary least squares regression or generalized method of moments, to name a few. We discuss some basics about the maximum likelihood estimation, its advantages and disadvantages, and provide an example application to a gamma distribution function.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Basics

The maximum likelihood estimation is a general estimation procedure. It is often compared to estimation procedures like the ordinary least squares regression or generalized method of moments, to name a few. We discuss some basics about the maximum likelihood estimation, its advantages and disadvantages, and provide an example application to a gamma distribution function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Novel Data-based Stochastic Distribution Control for Non-Gaussian Stochastic Systems

In this note, we present a novel data-based approach to investigate the non-Gaussian stochastic distribution control problem. As the motivation of this note, the existing methods have been summarised regarding to the drawbacks, for example, neural network weights training for unknown stochastic distribution and so on. To overcome these disadvantages, a new transformation for dynamic probability density function is given by kernel density estimation using interpolation. Based upon this transformation, a representative model has been developed while the stochastic distribution control problem has been transformed into an optimisation problem. Then, data-based direct optimisation and identification-based indirect optimisation have been proposed. In addition, the convergences of the presented algorithms are analysed and the effectiveness of these algorithms has been evaluated by numerical examples. In summary, the contributions of this note are as follows: 1) a new data-based probability density function transformation is given; 2) the optimisation algorithms are given based on the presented model; and 3) a new research framework is demonstrated as the potential extensions to the existing stochastic distribution control.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIGS: deep inference of galaxy spectra with neural posterior estimation

Abstract With the advent of billion-galaxy surveys with complex data, the need of the hour is to efficiently model galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with robust uncertainty quantification. The combination of simulation-based inference (SBI) and amortized neural posterior estimation (NPE) has been successfully used to analyse simulated and real galaxy photometry both precisely and efficiently. In this work, we utilise this combination and build on existing literature to analyse simulated noisy galaxy spectra. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study of spectra that is (a) an efficient analysis of galaxy SEDs and inference of galaxy parameters with physically interpretable uncertainties; and (b) amortized calculations of posterior distributions of said galaxy parameters at the modest cost of a few galaxy fits with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We utilise the SED generator and inference framework Prospector to generate simulated spectra, and train a dataset of 2 × 10 6 spectra (corresponding to a five-parameter SED model) with NPE. We show that SBI—with its combination of fast and amortized posterior estimations—is capable of inferring accurate galaxy stellar masses and metallicities. Our uncertainty constraints are comparable to or moderately weaker than traditional inverse-modelling with Bayesian MCMC methods (e.g. 0.17 and 0.26 dex in stellar mass and metallicity for a given galaxy, respectively). We also find that our inference framework conducts rapid SED inference (0.9–1.2 × 10 5 galaxy spectra via SBI/NPE at the cost of 1 MCMC-based fit). With this work, we set the stage for further work that focuses of SED fitting of galaxy spectra with SBI, in the era of JWST galaxy survey programs and the wide-field Roman Space Telescope spectroscopic surveys.

spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust neural network-enhanced estimation of local primordial non-Gaussianity

When applied to the nonlinear matter distribution of the universe, neural networks have been shown to be very statistically sensitive probes of cosmological parameters, such as the linear perturbation amplitude σ 8 . However, when used as a “black box,” neural networks are not robust to baryonic uncertainty. We propose a robust architecture for constraining primordial non-Gaussianity f NL , by training a neural network to locally estimate σ 8 , and correlating these local estimates with the large-scale density field. We apply our method to N-body simulations, and show that σ⁡(f NL ) is 3.5 times better than the constraint obtained from a standard halo-based approach. Finally, we show that our method has the same robustness property as large-scale halo bias: baryonic physics can change the normalization of the estimated f NL , but cannot change whether f NL is detected.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning robust parameter inference and density reconstruction in flyer plate impact experiments

Estimating physical parameters or material properties from experimental observations is a common objective in many areas of physics and material science. In many experiments, especially in shock physics, radiography is the primary means of observing the system of interest. However, radiography does not provide direct access to key state variables, such as density, which prevents the application of traditional parameter estimation approaches. Here we focus on flyer plate impact experiments on porous materials, and resolving the underlying parameterized equation of state (EoS) and crush porosity model parameters given radiographic observation(s). We use machine learning as a tool to demonstrate with high confidence that using only high impact velocity data does not provide sufficient information to accurately infer both EoS and crush model parameters, even with fully resolved density fields or a dynamic sequence of images. We thus propose an observable data set consisting of low and high impact velocity experiments/simulations that capture different regimes of compaction and shock propagation, and proceed to introduce a generative machine learning approach which produces a posterior distribution of physical parameters directly from radiographs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in estimating parameters from simulated flyer plate impact experiments, and show that the obtained estimates of EoS and crush model parameters can then be used in hydrodynamic simulations to obtain accurate and physically admissible density reconstructions. Finally, we examine the robustness of the approach to model mismatches, and find that the learned approach can provide useful parameter estimates in the presence of out-of-distribution radiographic noise and previously unseen physics, thereby promoting a potential breakthrough in estimating material properties from experimental radiographic images.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Parameter Estimation of Deflagration Losses in a Rotating Detonation Engine

One of the practical challenges of the studies of rotating detonation engines (RDEs) is the direct estimation of losses from experimental measurements. This study attempts at resolving this limitation by combining a reduced order model (ROM) of the detonation wave characteristics with a Markov chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation framework. The model considers simple deflagration losses and the overall impact of deflagration on RDE performance. To evaluate this model, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was applied to estimate the loss parameters within the model for a set of conditions operated in hydrogen-air over a range of mass flow rates and equivalence ratios. The MCMC parameter estimation framework allowed for the determination of a posterior distribution of the loss parameters for each test condition, an examination of the correlation between the loss parameters and measured performance metrics of the RDE, and an uncertainty propagation of these parameters. The predicted model loss parameters were then compared to indirect experimental measurements of the deflagration combustion fractions to evaluating the validity of the approach, and shed light on the benefits and drawbacks of the model, measurement techniques, and the estimation framework.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

$t\bar{t}b\bar{b}$ at the LHC: on the size of corrections and b -jet definitions

We report on the calculation of the next-to-leading order QCD corrections to the production of a $t\bar t$ pair in association with two heavy-flavour jets. We concentrate on the di-lepton $t\bar t$ decay channel at the LHC with $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The computation is based on pp → $e^+ν_eμ^-\bar{ν}_μb\bar{b}b\bar{b}$ matrix elements and includes all resonant and non-resonant diagrams, interferences and off-shell effects of the top quark and the W gauge boson. As it is customary for such studies, results are presented in the form of inclusive and differential fiducial cross sections. We extensively investigate the dependence of our results upon variation of renormalisation and factorisation scales and parton distribution functions in the quest for an accurate estimate of the theoretical uncertainties. We additionally study the impact of the contributions induced by the bottom-quark parton density. Results presented here are particularly relevant for measurements of $t\bar{t}H(H → b\bar{b})$ and the determination of the Higgs coupling to the top quark. In addition, they might be used for precise measurements of the top-quark fiducial cross sections and to investigate top-quark decay modelling at the LHC.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global evidence for the acclimation of ecosystem photosynthesis to light

Photosynthesis responds quickly to changes in light, increasing with incoming photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) until the leaves become light saturated. This instantaneous response to PPFD, which is widely studied and incorporated into models of photosynthesis, is overlaid on non-instantaneous photosynthetic changes resulting from the acclimation of plants to average PPFD over intermediate timescales of a week to months ($\overline{PPFD}$). Such photosynthetic light acclimation is not typically incorporated into models, due to the lack of observational constraints. In this work, we use eddy covariance observations from globally distributed and automated sensor networks, along with photosynthesis estimates from nine terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), to quantify and assess photosynthetic acclimation to light in natural environments. We also use recent theoretical developments to incorporate light acclimation in a TBM. Our results show widespread light acclimation of ecosystem photosynthesis. On average, a 1 μmol m -2 s -1 increase in $\overline{PPFD}_{10}$ (ten-day average PPFD) leads to a 0.031 ± 0.013 μmol C m -2 s -1 increase in the maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate (A max ), with croplands having stronger acclimation rates than grasslands and forests. Our analysis shows that the TBMs examined either neglect or substantially underestimate light acclimation. By updating a TBM to include photosynthetic acclimation, successfully reproducing the $\overline{PPFD}_{10}$-A max relationship, we provide a robust method for the incorporation of photosynthetic light acclimation in future models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of the spray-induced wall stress acting on the ignition assistance device

This research introduces a novel wall-stress model called the Spray-Induced Wall Stress (SIWS) model, which considers the effects of spray-wall impingement and the resulting formation of wall stress within the Lagrangian spray modeling framework. The primary objective of this paper is to provide a mathematical description of the fundamental physics underlying the model. Subsequently, the proposed model is validated using existing experimental data. Here, the remainder of the study focuses on the practical application of the model to an ignition assistance device. Specifically, this device is installed in a compression ignition engine and designed to enhance ignition in aviation-fueled high-altitude aircraft propulsion systems. The research sheds light on the mechanical impulse caused by the high-speed impact of the spray jet, leading to the accumulation of mechanical stress on the rigid body of the ignition assistance device. Previous studies on fluid-structure interaction have only considered the interaction between the gas phase and the solid wall. However, the SIWS model incorporates the additional impact of the impinging liquid spray jet. Consequently, the simulated stress distribution on the ignition assistance device can be estimated by considering both the gas-phase-induced term and the spray-induced term simultaneously.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rates and delay times of type Ia supernovae in the Dark Energy Survey

We use a sample of 809 photometrically classified Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) along with 40 415 field galaxies to calculate the rate of SNe Ia per galaxy in the redshift range 0.2 < z < 0.6. We recover the known correlation between SN Ia rate and galaxy stellar mass across a broad range of scales 8.5 ≤ log (M*/M ⊙ ) ≤ 11.25. We find that the SN Ia rate increases with stellar mass as a power law with index 0.63 ± 0.02, which is consistent with the previous work. We use an empirical model of stellar mass assembly to estimate the average star formation histories (SFHs) of galaxies across the stellar mass range of our measurement. Combining the modelled SFHs with the SN Ia rates to estimate constraints on the SN Ia delay time distribution (DTD), we find that the data are fit well by a power-law DTD with slope index β = –1.13 ± 0.05 and normalization A = 2.11 ± 0.05 × 10 –13 SNe M ⊙ –1 yr –1 , which corresponds to an overall SN Ia production efficiency N Ia /M * = 0.9 $^{+4.0}_{–0.7}$ × 10 –3 SNe M$^{–1}_{⊙}$. Upon splitting the SN sample by properties of the light curves, we find a strong dependence on DTD slope with the SN decline rate, with slower-declining SNe exhibiting a steeper DTD slope. We interpret this as a result of a relationship between intrinsic luminosity and progenitor age, and explore the implications of the result in the context of SN Ia progenitors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗