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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Ocean internal tides suppress tropical cyclones in the South China Sea

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are devastating natural disasters. Analyzing four decades of global TC data, here we find that among all global TC-active basins, the South China Sea (SCS) stands out as particularly difficult ocean for TCs to intensify, despite favorable atmosphere and ocean conditions. Over the SCS, TC intensification rate and its probability for a rapid intensification (intensification by ≥ 15.4 m s −1 day −1 ) are only 1/2 and 1/3, respectively, of those for the rest of the world ocean. Originating from complex interplays between astronomic tides and the SCS topography, gigantic ocean internal tides interact with TC-generated oceanic near-inertial waves and induce a strong ocean cooling effect, suppressing the TC intensification. Inclusion of this interaction between internal tides and TC in operational weather prediction systems is expected to improve forecast of TC intensity in the SCS and in other regions where strong internal tides are present.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

El Niño increases the risk of lower Mississippi River flooding

Mississippi River floods rank among the costliest climate-related disasters in the world. Improving flood predictability, preparedness, and response at seasonal to decadal time-scales requires an understanding of the climatic controls that govern flood occurrence. Linking flood occurrence to persistent modes of climate variability like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has proven challenging, due in part to the limited number of high-magnitude floods available for study in the instrumental record. To augment the relatively short instrumental record, we use output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to investigate the dynamical controls on discharge extremes of the lower Mississippi River. We show that through its regional influence on surface water storage, the warm phase of ENSO preconditions the lower Mississippi River to be vulnerable to flooding. In the 6–12 months preceding a flood, El Niño generates a positive precipitation anomaly over the lower Mississippi basin that gradually builds up soil moisture and reduces the basin’s infiltration capacity, thereby elevating the risk of a major flood during subsequent rainstorms. Our study demonstrates how natural climate variability mediates the formation of extreme floods on one of the world’s principal commercial waterways, adding significant predictive ability to near- and long-term forecasts of flood risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-platform analysis of public responses to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence on Twitter and Reddit

Online social networks (OSNs) have become a powerful tool to study collective human responses to extreme events such as earthquakes. Most previous research concentrated on a single platform and utilized users’ behaviors on a single platform to study people’s general responses. In this study, we explore the characteristics of people’s behaviors on different OSNs and conduct a cross-platform analysis of public responses to earthquakes. Our findings support the Uses and Gratification theory that users on Reddit and Twitter are engaging with platforms that they may feel best reflect their sense of self. Using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes as our study cases, we collected 510,579 tweets and 45,770 Reddit posts (including 1437 submissions and 44,333 comments) to answer the following research questions: (1) What were the similarities and differences between public responses on Twitter and Reddit? (2) Considering the different mechanisms of Twitter and Reddit, what unique information of public responses can we learn from Reddit as compared with Twitter? By answering these research questions, we aim to bridge the gap of cross-platform public responses research towards natural hazards. Our study evinces that the users on the two different platforms have both different topics of interest and different sentiments towards the same earthquake, which indicates the necessity of investigating cross-platform OSNs to reveal a more comprehensive picture of people’s general public responses towards certain disasters. Our analysis also finds that r/conspiracy subreddit is one of the major venues where people discuss the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes on Reddit and different misinformation/conspiracies spread on Twitter and Reddit platforms (e.g., “Big one is coming” on Twitter and “Nuclear test” on Reddit).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet

Despite an urgent demand for reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions to guide disaster preparedness, our current climate models show limited S2S prediction skill, particularly for precipitation, due to an inadequate understanding of the key processes that drive regional S2S variability. Here we demonstrate that the leading subseasonal variability mode of precipitation over the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) region is not only closely tied to the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), but also linked to precipitation and temperature extremes worldwide, influenced by a circumglobal Rossby wave-train along the subtropical westerly jet. Despite a close phase-lock relationship between the MJO and subseasonal EAWM precipitation, our findings indicate that the MJO itself may only play a minor role in the subseasonal EAWM variability. Given its significant impact on the S2S variability of global weather extremes, we call for coordinated community efforts to enhance the understanding and prediction of the circumglobal Rossby wave-train.

Atmospheric science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future

Recent decades have witnessed unprecedented extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding in some of the most populated regions in Southeast Asia during boreal winter. These extreme events are often influenced by the cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS), characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds south of the equator in the western Maritime Continent. However, the potential future changes in CENS and its hydrological impacts remain underexplored. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulations (CMIP6 HighResMIP), we show that the regional impacts of CENS on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in the near future (2030–2050), particularly over the adjacent coastal regions of southern Indonesia and northwestern Australia. More specifically, the risk of CENS-related extreme precipitation is projected to increase by up to 39 ± 1.2% relative to the seasonal probability, despite no apparent changes in the CENS characteristics in the near future. Such stronger impact is attributed to the enhanced moistening efficiency and moist static instability due to a more humid and warmer environment, which leads to more intense CENS convection. Our results suggest the need for effective monitoring and disaster managements to respond to the increasing severity of such events in the near future.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2018

Exploiting deep learning and volunteered geographic information for mapping buildings in Kano, Nigeria

Buildings in the developing world are inadequately mapped. Lack of such critical geospatial data adds unnecessary challenges to locating and reaching a large segment of the world’s most vulnerable population, impeding sustainability goals ranging from disaster relief to poverty reduction. Use of volunteered geographic information (VGI) has emerged as a widely accepted source to fill such voids. Despite its promise, availability of building maps for developing countries significantly lags behind demand. We present a new approach, coupling deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with VGI for automating building map generation from high-resolution satellite images for Kano state, Nigeria. Specifically, we trained a CNN with VGI building outlines of limited quality and quantity and generated building maps for a 50,000 km 2 area. Resulting maps are in strong agreement with existing settlement maps and require a fraction of the manual input needed for the latter. The VGI-based maps will provide support across multiple facets of socioeconomic development in Kano state, and demonstrates potential advancements in current mapping capabilities in resource constrained countries.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildland–urban interface wildfire increases metal contributions to stormwater runoff in Paradise, California

The 2018 Camp Fire was a large late-year (November) wildfire that produced an urban firestorm in the Town of Paradise, California, USA, and destroyed more than 18 000 structures. Runoff from burned wildland areas is known to contain ash, which can transport contaminants including metals into nearby watersheds. However, due to historically infrequent occurrences, the effect of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires, such as the Camp Fire, on surface water quality has not been well-characterized. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of widespread urban burning on surface water quality in major watersheds of the Camp Fire area. Between November 2018 and May 2019, 140 surface water samples were collected, including baseflow and stormflow, from burned and unburned watersheds with varying extent of urban development. Samples were analyzed for total and filter-passing metals, dissolved organic carbon, major anions, and total suspended solids. Ash and debris from the Camp Fire contributed metals to downstream watersheds via runoff throughout the storm season. Increases in concentration up to 200-fold were found for metals Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn in burned watersheds compared to pre-fire values. Total concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn exceeded EPA aquatic habitat acute criteria by up to 16-fold for up to five months after the fire. To assess possible transport mechanisms and bioavailability, a subset of 18 samples was analyzed using four filters with nominal pore sizes ranging from 0.22 to 1.2 μm to determine the particulate size distribution of metals. Trace and major metals (Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were found mostly associated with larger grain sizes (>0.45 μm), and some metals (Al, Cr, Fe, and Pb) also included a substantial colloidal phase (0.22 to 0.45 μm). This study suggests that fires in the wildland–urban interface increase metal concentrations, mainly through particulate driven transport. The metals with the largest increases are likely from anthropogenic disaster materials, though biomass ash also is a major contributor to water quality. In conclusion, the increase in metals following WUI burning may have adverse ecological impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Guest Editorial: Planning and operation of resilient distribution system for integrated multi-energy

Resilience is the ability of power systems to prepare for and adapt to low-probability, high-impact incidents and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. With the ageing of electricity distribution infrastructure and increasing threats of weather-related incidents and natural disasters, the need to effectively enhance the resilience of the electricity distribution system has become urgent and has attracted worldwide attention. Although there are an increasing number of publications related to enhancing resilience strategies, resilience is an emerging concept in power systems. Existing practices are mostly focused on deploying distributed energy resources (DERs) and microgrids, hardening the existing infrastructures and building redundant capacities. However, from a broader perspective, resilience enhancement of power distribution system is a systematic engineering, involving long-term system planning and upgrading (e.g., deployment of smart grid technologies and intelligent switches), short-term proactive scheduling, real-time robust and resilient control of DERs, and post-event restoration and recovery strategies. Based on this point, this Special Issue in IET Energy System Integration focuses on soliciting the most recent and original technologies, scheduling and control strategies for improving the resilience of power distribution system. Eight papers are presented in this Special Issue, covering various aspects related to resilience enhancement of power distribution system, including fault-tolerant frequency measurement, robust scheduling of integrated electricity and district heating systems, robust control of DERs, efficient methods for safety verification as well as novel graph theory-based approach to restore the distribution systems after multiple simultaneous faults. A brief introduction of these 8 papers is provided below.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Coincidence Risk Analysis of Floods Using Multivariate Copulas: Case Study of Jinsha River and Min River, China

The coincidence of floods on the mainstream and its tributary may cause significant flood damages at downstream of the confluence. In this study, the coincidence risks of flood magnitudes and occurrence dates on Jinsha River and Min River, China were analyzed using multivariate copulas. The Pearson Type III (P-III) distribution and the Mixed von Mises distribution were selected to establish the marginal distributions of flood magnitude and occurrence date, respectively. The Clayton copula and Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula functions were then used to establish the joint probability distributions of flood magnitudes and occurrence dates of Jinsha River and Min River, respectively. The coincidence probabilities of flood magnitudes and occurrence dates on Jinsha River and Min River were investigated, and the interval of Annual Maximum (AM) flood occurrence dates of the two rivers was also analyzed. The results show that the higher coincidence probabilities of flood occurrence dates of the two rivers occur in the period from mid-June to early September, with three peaks of coincidence probability occurring on 28 th July, 14 th August, and 31 st August, respectively. The coincidence probability of flood magnitudes for 0.1%, 0.2%, 1%, 5%, and 10% design floods are 1.651×10-8, 6.601×10-8, 1.647×10-6, 4.071×10-5, and 1.606×10-4, respectively. The probability of AM flood occurrence date of Jinsha River and Min River with a time interval of ±3 days is 10.16%. These results can provide guidance for the reservoir operation of Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs and offer reference for flood control and disaster reduction at downstream of the confluence.

Peng, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2013

Simulation-based design of energy management system with storage battery for a refugee shelter in Japan

Since the massive earthquake hit eastern Japan in March, 2011, our team has participated in the recovery planning for Kesen Association, which is a group of cities in northeastern Japan. As one of our proposals for the recovery planning for the community, we are designing energy management system with renewable energy (RE) and storage batteries. Some public facilities in the area have been used as refugee shelters, but refugees had to put up with life without electricity for a while after the disaster. If RE generator and storage batteries are introduced into the facilities, it is possible to provide refugees with electricity. In this study, the sizes of photovoltaic (PV) appliances and storage batteries to be introduced into one public facility are optimized. The optimization is based on simulation, in which electric energy is managed by charge and discharge of storage battery.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

What can Chernobyl teach us?

Disaster preparation is getting more attention since Fukushima underscored that nuclear accidents can occur anywhere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simulation of Deepwater Horizon oil plume reveals substrate specialization within a complex community of hydrocarbon degraders

The Deepwater Horizon (DWH) accident released an estimated 4.1 million barrels of oil and 10 1 0 mol of natural gas into the Gulf of Mexico, forming deep-sea plumes of dispersed oil droplets and dissolved gases that were largely degraded by bacteria. During the course of this 3-mo disaster a series of different bacterial taxa were enriched in succession within deep plumes, but the metabolic capabilities of the different populations that controlled degradation rates of crude oil components are poorly understood. We experimentally reproduced dispersed plumes of fine oil droplets in Gulf of Mexico seawater and successfully replicated the enrichment and succession of the principal oil-degrading bacteria observed during the DWH event. We recovered near-complete genomes, whose phylogeny matched those of the principal biodegrading taxa observed in the field, including the DWH Oceanospirillales (now identified as a Bermanella species), multiple species of Colwellia, Cycloclasticus, and other members of Gammaproteobacteria, Flavobacteria, and Rhodobacteria. Metabolic pathway analysis, combined with hydrocarbon compositional analysis and species abundance data, revealed substrate specialization that explained the successional pattern of oil-degrading bacteria. The fastest-growing bacteria used short-chain alkanes. The analyses also uncovered potential cooperative and competitive relationships, even among close relatives. We conclude that patterns of microbial succession following deep ocean hydrocarbon blowouts are predictable and primarily driven by the availability of liquid petroleum hydrocarbons rather than natural gases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Restart of the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility Neutron Radiography Program

The TREAT radiography system is used to perform neutron radiography of fuels, experiments, and other specimens before and after irradiation within the TREAT reactor. The TREAT neutron radiography facility performed approximately 5,000 radiographs by the spring of 1977. Originally built in 1958, the TREAT Facility was in operation until it was placed in a shutdown status in 1994. Following the Fukishima disaster and seeing a need for enhanced accident tolerant fuels, the United Stated Department of Energy decided to restart the TREAT facility and resume transient operations. In November 2017, the TREAT reactor was successfully restarted and is currently performing operational testing in preparation for initial experiment irradiations and transient testing. This paper discusses efforts to reactivate the TREAT neutron radiography facility. To characterize the neutron beam, gold foil activation measurements were made to determine an average neutron flux and flux profile. An open beam image provides the information about variations in the beam profile. In conclusion, a series of system qualification radiographs have been acquired to determine the effective image acquisition parameters, resulting image quality, and the relationships between the two.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Use of High-Density UN Fuel in Heat-Pipe Microreactors

Heat-pipe microreactors (HPMRs) are very small-scale nuclear reactors that employ heat pipes (HPs) for heat removal. HPMRs can be easily integrated with other forms of renewable energies, can be used for emergency responses to disaster relief zones, can be deployed in remote locations not connected to the grid, and can be removed from sites and replaced by new ones. HPMRs can also be used for space missions as HPs do not rely on gravity for heat transfer. Conventional fuel materials, such as uranium oxide (UO 2 ) and uranium oxycarbide (UCO), are currently considered in most existing HPMR designs, but ceramic uranium nitride (UN) fuel that has high uranium density, high thermal conductivity, and high melting point may become a better fuel candidate. Through neutronics calculations, this paper assesses the impact of using UN fuel in HPMRs with two different neutron spectra (fast and thermal) and two different fuel forms [traditional solid fuel pellets and TRi-structural-ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel compacts]. It was concluded that retrofitting HPMRs with UN fuel has the potential to reduce the initial 235 U enrichment requirement by ~3 wt% (to keep the same cycle length) or increase the cycle length (by keeping the same initial 235 U enrichment), which enables more compact and transportable HPMR core designs. However, using UN fuel decreases the control element worth [by up to 20% for the Special Purpose Reactor (SPR) and 5% for HP-MR] and is up to 80% more costly. Increasing 15 N enrichment can further decrease the initial 235 U enrichment requirement and increase the control element worth but is more costly. In conclusion, compared to fast-spectrum HPMRs fueled with solid pellet fuels, retrofitting UN fuel is more suitable for thermal-spectrum HPMRs fueled with TRISO fuel compacts, where the neutron spectrum hardening caused by using UN is less significant.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of Recycling Discharged Microreactor Heavy Metal in Light Water and Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors: A Neutronics Analysis

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) offer unique advantages, such as rapid deployment, potability, low maintenance requirements, and operational flexibility. Their compact size makes them a promising solution for decentralized power generation, particularly in remote areas, military bases, and disaster-stricken regions. However, MRs face challenges, including unutilized fissile material at the end of life, economic inefficiency, increased heavy metal (HM) waste complicating disposal, and the accumulation of plutonium (Pu) with high 239 Pu concentrations raising proliferation risks. Here, this study investigated the neutronics feasibility of a novel three-stage fuel cycle where discharged HM from MRs is recycled and burned in light water reactors and sodium-cooled fast reactors. This approach converts discharged HM into valuable fuel, enhancing the efficiency of MR deployments while improving the safeguardability of their final waste products. Neutronics analysis demonstrated that the safety characteristics of reactor designs in each stage were minimally impacted by the proposed cycle. For two representative MR designs, a fast-spectrum MR with solid pellet fuel and a thermal-spectrum MR with TRISO (TRi-structural-ISOtropic) fuel compacts, the proposed fuel cycle reduced the uranium disposal mass flow rate by ~60%, decreased the 235 U enrichment of the discharge fuel to ~1 wt%, eliminated plutonium disposal, and increased the cumulative fuel burnup to ~580 gigawatt-day per metric ton of initial heavy metal (GWd/t-iHM) or 60% fissions per initial metal atom. Despite the significant differences between the two MR designs, the performance and infrastructure requirements of the developed fuel cycles were remarkably similar, indicating its generalizability to a broader class of MRs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges and Technology-Driven Opportunities for Safeguarding Microreactors

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) represent a new class of reactors characterized by their compactness, portability, and low power output. These features enable MRs to supply electricity and process heat to remote areas like military bases; inaccessible locations; small grids, such as on islands; or disaster impacted areas. Compared to traditional light water reactors, MRs have a unique set of attributes that need to be considered for the implementation of safeguard strategies. Current safeguard methodologies are reactor technology specific and are employed on large, stationary reactors where there is easy access by safeguards inspectors and where safeguard equipment can be easily installed and retrofitted. While there are numerous benefits to MRs, their compact size, portability, scalability, and operational lifetime create challenges to the traditional safeguard approaches, thus needing novel safeguard strategies. Here, this paper addresses the unique challenges posed by MRs to the international nuclear safeguards regime, including limited human resources, and explores how technology advancements can help mitigate these challenges. Specifically, it examines novel technologies that could contribute to establishing a comprehensive safeguards framework for MRs. These safeguards-enabling technologies encompass safeguards by design, remote sensing and monitoring technologies, applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms, utilization of digital twins, and system of systems assessments. While each of these safeguards-enabling technologies offers partial solutions to the challenges posed by MRs for the international safeguards regime, none of them alone can entirely address these challenges. Consequently, a combination of the safeguards-enabling technologies outlined in this paper is recommended to establish a robust safeguards regime for MRs.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗