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DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Compression of Electron-Phonon Interactions

First-principles calculations of electron interactions in materials have seen rapid progress in recent years, with electron-phonon ( e − ph ) interactions being a prime example. However, these techniques use large matrices encoding the interactions on dense momentum grids, which reduces computational efficiency and obscures interpretability. For e − ph interactions, existing interpolation techniques leverage locality in real space, but the high dimensionality of the data remains a bottleneck to balance cost and accuracy. Here we show an efficient way to compress e − ph interactions based on singular value decomposition (SVD), a widely used matrix and image compression technique. Leveraging (un)constrained SVD methods, we accurately predict material properties related to e − ph interactions—including charge mobility, spin relaxation times, band renormalization, and superconducting critical temperature—while using only a small fraction (1%–2%) of the interaction data. These findings unveil the hidden low-dimensional nature of e − ph interactions. Furthermore, they accelerate state-of-the-art first-principles e − ph calculations by about 2 orders of magnitude without sacrificing accuracy. Our Pareto-optimal parametrization of e − ph interactions can be readily generalized to electron-electron and electron-defect interactions, as well as to other couplings, advancing quantitative studies of condensed matter. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Modeling of Grid-Forming Inverter Dynamics Using Power Hardware-in-the-Loop Experimentation

Not Available

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2012

A data-driven model of a modal gated ion channel: The inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptor in insect Sf9 cells

The inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (IP 3 ) receptor (IP 3 R) channel is crucial for the generation and modulation of intracellular Ca 2+ signals in animal cells. To gain insight into the complicated ligand regulation of this ubiquitous channel, we constructed a simple quantitative continuous-time Markov-chain model from the data. Our model accounts for most experimentally observed gating behaviors of single native IP 3 R channels from insect Sf9 cells. Ligand (Ca 2+ and IP 3 ) dependencies of channel activity established six main ligand-bound channel complexes, where a complex consists of one or more states with the same ligand stoichiometry and open or closed conformation. Channel gating in three distinct modes added one complex and indicated that three complexes gate in multiple modes. This also restricted the connectivity between channel complexes. Finally, latencies of channel responses to abrupt ligand concentration changes defined a model with specific network topology between 9 closed and 3 open states. The model with 28 parameters can closely reproduce the equilibrium gating statistics for all three gating modes over a broad range of ligand concentrations. It also captures the major features of channel response latency distributions. The model can generate falsifiable predictions of IP 3 R channel gating behaviors and provide insights to both guide future experiment development and improve IP 3 R channel gating analysis. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters and of the parameters in the De Young–Keizer model yield strong statistical evidence in favor of our model. Our method is simple and easily applicable to the dynamics of other ion channels and molecules.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Adaptive Damping Controller for Wind Power Plants with Doubly-Fed Induction Generators

This paper presents an adaptive damping controller for wind power plants in which the turbines are equipped with doubly-fed induction generators. The controller is designed to respond to an input control signal that is triggered according to the system operating conditions. A processing unit continuously estimates the electromechanical modes of oscillation based on real-time streaming data acquired from a phasor measurement unit that is strategically positioned on the grid. The decision to trigger (or not trigger) the control signal is automatic, based on the relative damping of the dominant mode. The modes are estimated using the dynamic mode decomposition algorithm with time-delay embedding. Numerical simulations performed on the two-area system demonstrate that the proposed controller enhances the rotor angle stability for both small-signal and large disturbances, and is adaptive to changing grid conditions.

damping controller↗

DOE OSTI2020

A data-driven approach to sampling matrix selection for compressive sensing

Sampling is a fundamental aspect of any implementation of compressive sensing. Typically, the choice of sampling method is guided by the reconstruction basis. However, this approach can be problematic with respect to certain hardware constraints and is not responsive to domain-specific context. We propose a method for defining an order for a sampling basis that is optimal with respect to capturing variance in data, thus allowing for meaningful sensing at any desired level of compression. We focus on the Walsh-Hadamard sampling basis for its relevance to hardware constraints, but our approach applies to any sampling basis of interest. We illustrate the effectiveness of our method on the Physical Sciences Inc. Fabry-Perot interferometer sensor multispectral dataset, the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab FTIR-based longwave infrared sensor hyperspectral dataset, and a Colorado State University Swiss Ranger depth image dataset. The spectral datasets consist of simulant experiments, including releases of chemicals such as GAA and SF6. We combine our sampling and reconstruction with the adaptive coherence estimator (ACE) and bulk coherence for chemical detection and we incorporate an algorithmic threshold for ACE values to determine the presence or absence of a chemical. We compare results across sampling methods in this context. We have successful chemical detection at a compression rate of 90%. For all three datasets, we compare our sampling approach to standard orderings of sampling basis such as random, sequency, and an analog of sequency that we term `frequency.' In one instance, the peak signal to noise ratio was improved by over 30% across a test set of depth images.

compressive sensing, hyperspectral imaging, Walsh-↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Adaptive Damping Controller for Wind Power Plants with Doubly-Fed Induction Generators: Preprint

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Discovery of Active Nematic Hydrodynamics

Active nematics can be modeled using phenomenological continuum theories that account for the dynamics of the nematic director and fluid velocity through partial differential equations (PDEs). While these models provide a statistical description of the experiments, the relevant terms in the PDEs and their parameters are usually identified indirectly. We adapt a recently developed method to automatically identify optimal continuum models for active nematics directly from spatio-temporal data, via sparse regression of the coarse-grained fields onto generic low order PDEs. After extensive benchmarking, we apply the method to experiments with microtubule-based active nematics, finding a surprisingly minimal description of the system. Furthermore, our approach can be generalized to gain insights into active gels, microswimmers, and diverse other experimental active matter systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leading Energy Analysis: Data-Driven Insights That Power Our Energy Future

Energy analysts at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) use a broad set of expertise and cutting-edge tools to capture the complexities of our interconnected energy system. Decision-makers rely on these insights to drive cost savings, enhance grid reliability, support long-term innovation, and bolster America's energy workforce and global competitiveness. This fact sheet highlights some of NREL's high-impact analyses, data, and tools, largely focusing on power grid analysis.

data↗

DOE OSTI2024

Maximizing energy efficiency in wastewater treatment plants: A data-driven approach for waste heat recovery and an economic analysis using Organic Rankine Cycle and thermal energy storage

Maximizing energy efficiency through waste heat recovery (WHR) processes is crucial for sustainable and ecofriendly operations across multiple industries, notably in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). This work proposes a comprehensive approach for assessing the WHR feasibility in WWTPs, structured in two main objectives. Firstly, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is developed to accurately predict WHR based on operational data, including biogas temperature, biogas pressure, daily production in kWh, and WHR values in kWh th . The second objective focuses on economically evaluating the WHR feasibility based on the estimated WHR values obtained by the ANN model, and then realistically assessing the economic feasibility of integrating the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) and Seasonal Thermal Energy Storage (STES) systems. With an application to the As-Samra WWTP located in Jordan, the developed ANN model demonstrates promising results in the validation phase, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2206 kWh/day, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1674 kWh/day, and an R-squared (R 2 ) value of 68%. On the other hand, the economic analysis reveals that an optimal ORC system of 412.14 kW e capacity yields a Net Present Value (NPV) of 2.09 million US dollars, a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 0.0749 USD/kWh, a Payback Period (PBP) of 4.8 years, and annual revenues of 428 kUSD. This work also investigates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating ORC-STES. Results indicate that the LCOE and PBP are highly affected by the ORC's capital cost, and integrating STES increases the LCOE to 0.0824 USD/kWh, rendering its integration with ORC infeasible. In conclusion, this study aims to advance the understanding and application of WHR in WWTPs, paving the way for more efficient and sustainable practices in the field.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cross-Layered Distributed Data-Driven Framework for Enhanced Smart Grid Cyber-Physical Security

Smart Grid (SG) research and development has drawn much attention from academia, industry and government due to the great impact it will have on society, economics and the environment. Securing the SG is a considerably significant challenge due the increased dependency on communication networks to assist in physical process control, exposing them to various cyber-threats. In addition to attacks that change measurement values using False Data Injection (FDI) techniques, attacks on the communication network may disrupt the power system's real-time operation by intercepting messages, or by flooding the communication channels with unnecessary data. Addressing these attacks requires a cross-layer approach. In this paper a cross-layered strategy is presented, called Cross-Layer Ensemble CorrDet with Adaptive Statistics(CECD-AS), which integrates the detection of faulty SG measurement data as well as inconsistent network inter-arrival times and transmission delays for more reliable and accurate anomaly detection and attack interpretation. Numerical results show that CECD-AS can detect multiple False Data Injections, Denial of Service (DoS) and Man In The Middle (MITM) attacks with a high F1-score compared to current approaches that only use SG measurement data for detection such as the traditional physics-based State Estimation, Ensemble CorrDet with Adaptive Statistics strategy and other machine learning classification-based detection schemes.

cyber-physical security↗

DOE OSTI2014

Data-Driven Benchmarking of Building Energy Efficiency Utilizing Statistical Frontier Models

Frontier methods quantify the energy efficiency of buildings by forming an efficient frontier (best-practice technology) and by comparing all buildings against that frontier. Because energy consumption fluctuates over time, the efficiency scores are stochastic random variables. Existing applications of frontier methods in energy efficiency either treat efficiency scores as deterministic values or estimate their uncertainty by resampling from one set of measurements. Availability of smart meter data (repeated measurements of energy consumption of buildings) enables using actual data to estimate the uncertainty in efficiency scores. Additionally, existing applications assume a linear form for an efficient frontier; i.e.,they assume that the best-practice technology scales up and down proportionally with building characteristics. However, previous research shows that buildings are nonlinear systems. This paper proposes a statistical method called stochastic energy efficiency frontier (SEEF) to estimate a bias-corrected efficiency score and its confidence intervals from measured data. The paper proposes an algorithm to specify the functional form of the frontier, identify the probability distribution of the efficiency score of each building using measured data, and rank buildings based on their energy efficiency. To illustrate the power of SEEF, this paper presents the results from applying SEEF on a smart meter data set of 307 residential buildings in the United States. SEEF efficiency scores are used to rank individual buildings based on energy efficiency, to compare subpopulations of buildings, and to identify irregular behavior of buildings across different time-of-use periods. SEEF is an improvement to the energy-intensity method (comparing kWh/sq.ft.): whereas SEEF identifies efficient buildings across the entire spectrum of building sizes, the energy-intensity method showed bias toward smaller buildings. The results of this research are expected to assist researchers and practitioners compare and rank (i.e.,benchmark) buildings more robustly and over a wider range of building types and sizes. Eventually, doing so is expected to result in improved resource allocation in energy-efficiency programs.

Kavousian, A↗

DOE OSTI2018

Data-Driven Selection of Tessellation Models Describing Polycrystalline Microstructures

Tessellation models have proven to be useful for the geometric description of grain microstructures in polycrystalline materials. With the use of a suitable tessellation model, the complex morphology of grains can be represented by a small number of parameters assigned to each grain, which not only entails a significant reduction in complexity, but also facilitates the investigation of certain geometric features of the microstructure. However, for a given set of microstructural data, the choice of a particular geometric model is traditionally based on researcher intuition. The model should provide a sufficiently good approximation to the data, while keeping the number of parameters small. In this paper, we discuss general aspects of the process of model selection and suggest several criteria for selecting an appropriate candidate from a certain set of tessellation models. The choice of candidate represents a trade-off between accuracy and complexity of the model. Here, the selected model is used solely to approximate given data samples, but it also provides guidance for developing stochastic tessellation models and generating virtual microstructures. Model fitting is carried out by simulated annealing, applied in a consistent manner to twelve different tessellation models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Approach to Real-World Degradation of Backsheets

The objectives of this project are as follows: • The population behavior of fielded modules in various conditions of use • Predictions of materials in specific climatic zones • Understanding of a module’s local environment in the field on its degradation It aims to understand how and what backsheet materials of photovoltaic modules degrade in the real world field. • Field Survey Protocol This project is started from the protocol, because all the data, information, domain knowledge are from experience of the real world field surveys, which is based on the protocol. The Protocol is explored from the experience of the field survey observations. With the increasing of the field surveys, it is refined for three versions, which are Task 1.0 (Section 3.1), Task 6.0 (Section 3.6), Task 10.0 (Section 3.10) respectively. It includes a document and a training video, which is able to direct other teams to follow the same procedure with the sites surveyed during this project. The documents include the detailed information but is not limited to the terminology definition, instruments SOP, preparation items for the surveys, form for the data collections, the order of the information collection. The final version of the protocol can be found at Appendix A, see Section 5. Additional, It can also be found at Open Science Framework (OSF), see Section 3.18 for detail. • Written Waiver Request Before staring the field surveys, the request of the waiver for international surveys is completed, because the limitation of climate zone in the United States, see Appendix B in Section 6 for the request documents. Unfortunately, only 1 international site from Taiwan, China can be finished, due to the COVID-19. • Field Survey According to the protocol we built in Section 3.1, 3.6 and 3.10, 41 sites have been surveyed across seven different climate zones (Cfa, Csa, Csb, BSk, Dfa, Dfb, Am). A variety of materials, including Polyethylene Naphthalate (PEN), Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET), Polyvinyl Fluoride (PVF), Polyvinylidene Fluoride (PVDF), Acrylic PVDF, Fluoroethylene Vinyl Ether (FEVE), and Glass, were identified. These sites are located in various states including California, South Carolina, New Mexico, Maryland, Ohio, Tennessee, Florida, Massachusetts, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, and Taiwan, Republic of China. The ages of the sites ranged from 2 - 38 years in service and the field size varied from 1 MW - 25 MW. All requirements for the modeling have been satisfied. Some observations like ’Edge Effect’ for the rows and Junction box heating will also be a useful knowledge to build the model. Section 3.7 provides detailed information on the sites visited during this reporting period.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven cyber-attack detection for photovoltaic systems: A transfer learning approach

With increasing exposure to software-based sensing and control, power systems are facing higher risks of cyber/physical attacks. Here, to ensure system stability and minimize the potential economic losses, it is imperative to monitor the operating states and detect those attacks at the early stage. In this paper, a transfer learning method is proposed to detect cyber-attacks in photovoltaic (PV) systems with much less training data. First of all, two PV systems with a different number of PV inverters and power ratings are analyzed and their attack models are studied. Next, an attack detection Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model was trained with rich amount of data from PV #1. Then, transfer learning was proposed to transfer the well-trained features from PV #1 to PV #2. Lastly, the attack detection model on PV #2 was trained based on the transferred CNN model. The experiment results show that the proposed transfer learning method achieves better accuracy and a faster convergence rate with a much less training dataset than conventional deep learning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2012

Data-driven Fault Tolerance for Work Stealing Computations

Checkpoint-restart approaches to fault tolerance typically roll back all the processes to the previous checkpoint in the event of a failure. Work stealing is a promising technique to dynamically tolerate variations in the execution environment, including faults, system noise, and energy constraints. In this paper, we present fault tolerance mechanisms for task parallel computations, a popular computation idiom, employing work stealing. The computation is organized as a collection of tasks with data in a global address space. The completion of data operations, rather than the actual messages, is tracked to derive an idempotent data store. This information is used to accurately identify the tasks to be re-executed, therefore to recompute only the lost data, in the presence of random work stealing. We consider three recovery schemes that present distinct trade-offs -- lazy recovery with potentially increased re-execution cost, immediate collective recovery with associated synchronization overheads, and noncollective recovery enabled by additional communication. We employ distributed work stealing to dynamically rebalance the tasks on the live processes and evaluate the three schemes using candidate application benchmarks. We demonstrate that the overheads (space and time) of the fault tolerance mechanism are low, the cost incurred due to failures are small, and the overheads decrease with per-process work at scale.

fault tolerance, task parallelism, load balancing,↗

DOE OSTI2012

A data driven approach to assess team performance through team communication

For teams working in complex task environments, instilling effective communication between team members is a primary goal during task training. Presently, responsibility for evaluating team communication abilities resides with instructors and outside observers who make qualitative assessments that are shared with the team following a training exercise. Constructing technologies to automate these assessments has historically been prohibitive for two reasons. First, the financial cost of instrumenting the environment to collect team communication data at the necessary fidelity has been too high for an operational setting. Second, past research on using team communication as a proxy for team performance assessment has relied on defining communication through traditional algorithmic design, an approach which does not properly capture the varied nature of communication strategies amongst different teams.

Forsythe, James Chris↗

DOE OSTI2017

Data-Driven Residential Load Modeling and Validation in GridLAB-D

Accurately characterizing the impacts of high penetrations of distributed energy resources (DER) on the electric distribution system has driven modeling methods from traditional static snap shots, often representing a critical point in time (e.g., summer peak load), to quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulations capturing all the effects of variable DER, associated controls and hence, impacts on the distribution system over a given time period. Unfortunately, the high time resolution DER source and load data required for model inputs is often scarce or non-existent. This paper presents work performed within the GridLAB-D model environment to synthesize, calibrate, and validate 1-second residential load models based on measured transformer loads and physics-based models suitable for QSTS electric distribution system modeling. The modeling and validation approach taken was to create a typical GridLAB-D model home that, when replicated to represent multiple diverse houses on a single transformer, creates a statistically similar load to a measured load for a given weather input. The model homes are constructed to represent the range of actual homes on an instrumented transformer: square footage, thermal integrity, heating and cooling system definition as well as realistic occupancy schedules. House model calibration and validation was performed using the distribution transformer load data and corresponding weather. The modeled loads were found to be similar to the measured loads for four evaluation metrics: 1) daily average energy, 2) daily average and standard deviation of power, 3) power spectral density, and 4) load shape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗