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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Multi-GPU Implementation of a 3D Finite Difference Time Domain Earthquake Code on Heterogeneous Supercomputers

We have developed a highly scalable 3D Finite Difference GPU code for use in earthquake engineering and disaster management through regional petascale earthquake simulations. This MPI-CUDA code is based on a widely-used wave propagation code called AWP-ODC and restructured for high throughput and efficiency on a heterogeneous computing architecture. We present an effective communication reduction technique for leveraging GPUs with minimal PCI-e overhead, and a novel overlapping method to fully hide data communication latency between GPUs. The optimization concept used in this work can be extended to general stencil computing on a structured grid. The benchmarks demonstrated sustained 100 TFlops in single precision for 49 billion mesh points using 952 GPUs on the NCCS Titan Phase 5 system, which is a 77-fold speedup compared to the CPU version of the code. This multi-GPU implementation has been validated and used for a large-scale verification wave propagation simulation of Mw5.4 Chino Hills earthquake using 128 GPUs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Asteroid diversion considerations and comparisons of diversion techniques

The threat of asteroid impacts on Earth poses a low-probability but high consequence risk, with possible outcomes ranging from regional to global catastrophe. However, unique amongst such global threats we have the capability of averting such disasters. Diversion approaches by either kinetic impactor or nuclear energy deposition are the two most practical technologies for mitigating hazardous near Earth asteroids. One of the greatest challenges in understanding our options is the uncertain response of asteroids to such impulsive techniques, due both to our lack of knowledge of the composition and structure of these objects as well as their highly varied nature. Predicting whether we will simply divert or break up a given object is a crucial: the weak self-gravity and inferred weak structure of typical asteroids present the strong possibility the body will fragment for modest impulses. Predictive modeling of failure and fragmentation is one important tool for such studies. In this paper we apply advances in modeling failure and fracture using Adaptive Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (ASPH) to understand mega-cratering on asteroids as a validation exercise, and show examples of diverting the near Earth asteroid Bennu using both a kinetic impactor and ablative blow-off due to nuclear energy deposition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Looking Beyond Bill Savings to Equity in Renewable Energy Microgrid Deployment

Microgrids powered by renewable energy can provide backup power to critical infrastructure during grid outages. These systems can also play an important role in advancing energy justice by providing economic, environmental, health, and resilience benefits for underserved communities. The value of microgrids is often measured by the economic savings and resilience provided, but there are other energy justice factors that should be considered. This paper describes a methodology for quantifying broader costs and benefits including utility bill savings, value of resilience, social cost of carbon, public health costs, and jobs associated with the construction and operation of microgrids. We evaluate these factors at three case study sites and find that including energy justice values in the cost-benefit analysis of microgrids can change investment decisions. When climate, health, resilience, and job creation are considered, cost-optimal microgrids include more renewable generation, leading to a 52-82% reduction in emissions and diesel fuel use. The net present values of the microgrids grow from negative $626,000-843,000 in the diesel only case to $10-16 million in the hybrid microgrid case and $12-19 million in the renewable microgrid case, indicating potential for greater microgrid deployment if energy justice values are incorporated in decision making. However, we also see large increases in capital expenses, which could limit deployment unless accompanied by innovative financing measures. These findings may be useful to communities as they seek to strengthen resilience to natural disasters while also improving public health, meeting climate goals, and providing economic opportunity for residents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

A review on snake robot testbeds in granular and restricted maneuverability spaces

Here this article reviews the state of the art in evaluating snake robots for small spaces such as a collapsed building where the snake is either locomoting in restricted maneuverability spaces, such as narrow pipes or tunnels, or pushing through granular regions, such as dirt and rubble. It makes recommendations on designing a testbed that can enable a comprehensive evaluation of a snake robot’s overall capability and an objective comparison of different snakes. A survey of 31 papers reveals that 20 testbeds were used to test snake robots in restricted maneuverability environments. All of those were built specifically to test a particular snake robot rather than for comparison with other snake robots, but each offers insights into designing comprehensive, comparative testbeds. The article analyzed these 20 testbeds in terms of how well they addressed the previously established disaster robotics metrics of scale (a dimensionless number) and four traversability elements, i.e. verticality, tortuosity, accessibility elements, and surface properties. This review suggests that two kinds of general testbeds are in need for the snake robot community: (1) a testbed with high physical fidelity for measuring suitability for a target application, and (2) a testbed which provides a dimensionless comparison of different snake robots. The review is expected to benefit the community in several ways. It can help form a consensus on a suite of metrics and test methods to incorporate into a testbed for evaluating and comparing different types of snake robots and capturing the performance of snake robots in more realistic work envelopes. The metrics and test methods can also pro-actively inform snake robot design as they offer more formally quantified work envelopes, thus accelerating technology transfer. The use of scale and traversability is expected to be applicable to robots in general.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Toward improving drought monitoring using the remotely sensed soil moisture assimilation: A parallel particle filtering framework

Drought is the costliest hazard among all natural disasters. Despite the significant improvements in drought modeling over the last decade, accurate provisions of drought conditions in a timely manner is still one of the major research challenges. In order to improve the current drought monitoring skills, this study presents a land data assimilation system by merging the remotely sensed surface soil moisture with the use of recently developed particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method. To cope with the computational complexity, a modular parallel particle filtering framework (PPFF) is developed which allows a large ensemble size in PMCMC applications. The implementation of the proposed system is demonstrated with the 2012 summer flash drought case study over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Results from both synthetic and real case studies suggest that the land data assimilation system significantly improves the soil moisture predictions and the drought monitoring skills. Compared with the U.S. Drought Monitoring (USDM), the land data assimilation can better capture the drought onset on May 2012 and the drought severity in June and July 2012. Finally, this study recommends that the proposed land data assimilation system under a high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure can better facilitate the drought preparation and response actions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Remote sensing and statistical analysis of the effects of hurricane María on the forests of Puerto Rico

Widely recognized as one of the worst natural disaster in Puerto Rico's history, hurricane María made landfall on September 20, 2017 in southeast Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale causing widespread destruction, fatalities and forest disturbance. This study focused on hurricane María's effect on Puerto Rico's forests as well as the effect of landform and forest characteristics on observed disturbance patterns. In this work, we used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to assess the severity of forest disturbance using a disturbance metric based on Landsat 8 satellite data composites with pre and post-hurricane María. Forest structure, tree phenology characteristics, and landforms were obtained from satellite data products, including digital elevation model and global forest canopy height. Our analyses showed that forest structure, and characteristics such as forest age and forest type affected patterns of forest disturbance. Among forest types, highest disturbance values were found in sierra palm, transitional, and tall cloud forests; seasonal evergreen forests with coconut palm; and mangrove forests. For landforms, greatest disturbance metrics was found at high elevations, steeper slopes, and windward surfaces. As expected, high levels of disturbance were also found close to the hurricane track, with disturbance less severe as hurricane María moved inland. Results demonstrated that forest and landform characteristics accounted for 34% of the variation in spatial forest spectral disturbance patterns. This study demonstrated an informative regional approach, combining remote sensing with statistical analyses to investigate factors that result in variability in hurricane effects on forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the economic costs of power outages owing to extreme events: A systematic review

Quantifying the economic cost of long-duration power outages is crucial to justifying investments in resiliency and reliability improvements. However, extensive study on the subject complicates the identification of power outage costs and determining the most suitable approach to quantify them for an individual, specific facility, particularly in the context of extreme events. Here, this research provides a systematic review of economic studies estimating the impact of environmental disasters at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. Of 326 articles, evaluating the costs of power outages in extreme events, this work identified 22 studies that attempted to quantify the economic costs. These findings indicate that quantifying power outage costs lacks standardization, posing challenges for comparing different studies. Most analyses aiming to quantify these costs for utilities, sectors, and the overall economy rely on outdated survey data, which offer generalized rather than specific cost estimations. The costs of power outages exhibit a significant dependence on factors such as the sector involved, the type of customer affected, and the outage duration. To quantify industry costs, the research in this study suggests that using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's online, open-access Customer Damage Function Calculator is the best option for individual-level assessments of industries, hospitals, offices, education centers, and similar facilities. However, the Interruption Cost Estimate Calculator can estimate outage costs across industrial, commercial, and residential sectors for macroeconomic outcomes. Finally, this article discusses the relative strengths of these methods and tools and the potential directions for future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Markov framework for generalized post-event systems recovery modeling: From single to multihazards

State-dependent models can be used to represent the system recovery process as a series of stochastic transitions from lower to higher functional states. However, the applications of these models have been limited in scope and there is a lack of a generalized recovery modeling framework. A generalized framework would permit a robust forecasting of systems and system-of-systems recovery under multiple hazards, and more broadly, would contribute to community disaster preparedness. This paper develops a generalized post hazard-event recovery modeling framework based on state-dependent Markov-type processes. We then apply the proposed framework to solve a spectrum of problems that range from hind-casting single-system recovery following a single hazard event to forecasting post-event trajectories under multiple hazards and modeling the recovery of a system-of-systems. First, Markov chains are used to hind-cast the observed recovery for a portfolio of buildings affected by the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake. Next, Markov processes are used to formulate a parametric post hazard-event recovery model, which can be updated using Bayesian statistics when relevant datasets become available. Semi-Markov processes are then used to develop a more general model of single hazard recovery, which accounts for the intensity of the loading and level of damage caused by the event. Semi-Markov processes with non-renewal features are then used to account for multihazard interactions in a post-event recovery model, and applied to a case study that involves a community in Charleston, South Carolina. Lastly, Markov-type processes are combined with Bayesian networks to model the recovery of residential, commercial, educational, and industrial buildings (system-of-systems) following a hazard event. Overall, these applications demonstrate the versatility of the Markov framework towards handling recovery problems with varying levels of complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Hurricane Harvey Links to Ocean Heat Content and Climate Change Adaptation

Abstract While hurricanes occur naturally, human‐caused climate change is supercharging them and exacerbating the risk of major damage. Here using ocean and atmosphere observations, we demonstrate links between increased upper ocean heat content due to global warming with the extreme rainfalls from recent hurricanes. Hurricane Harvey provides an excellent case study as it was isolated in space and time. We show that prior to the beginning of northern summer of 2017, ocean heat content was the highest on record both globally and in the Gulf of Mexico, but the latter sharply decreased with hurricane Harvey via ocean evaporative cooling. The lost ocean heat was realized in the atmosphere as moisture, and then as latent heat in record‐breaking heavy rainfalls. Accordingly, record high ocean heat values not only increased the fuel available to sustain and intensify Harvey but also increased its flooding rains on land. Harvey could not have produced so much rain without human‐induced climate change. Results have implications for the role of hurricanes in climate. Proactive planning for the consequences of human‐caused climate change is not happening in many vulnerable areas, making the disasters much worse.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fifty Years of Research on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), first discovered by Madden and Julian in 1971, is a prominent tropical phenomenon with a typical period of 30–60 days and featured by a large-scale envelope of cloud clusters and rain systems moving eastward along the equator. The MJO significantly influences not only intense tropical rainstorms, such as hurricanes, but also extreme weather over the middle to high latitudes. Skillful prediction of the MJO several weeks ahead, therefore, will be greatly valuable for disaster mitigation purposes. However, many present-day climate models have great difficulty in realistically simulating the MJO for reasons that are not well understood. This article provides a comprehensive review of the recent progress in the observational, modeling, and theoretical study of the MJO, with a particular focus on the most recent decade. Several future research directions are also suggested to further advance our understanding and prediction capability of the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗
DOE OSTI2014

Separation of rare gases and chiral molecules by selective binding in porous organic cages

Abstract: The rare gases krypton, xenon, and radon pose both an economic opportunity and a potential environmental hazard. Xenon is used in commercial lighting, medical imaging, and anesthesia, and can sell for $5,000 per kilogram. Radon, by contrast, Is naturally radioactive and the second largest cause of lung cancer, and radioactive xenon, 133Xe, was a major pollutant released In the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster. We describe an organic cage molecule that can capture xenon and radon with unprecedented selectivity, suggesting new technologies for environmental monitoring, removal of pollutants, or the recovery of rare, valuable elements from air.

Chen, Linjiang↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Analysis of Report-Back of Research Results Strategies for Personal Chemical Exposure Data

Background. Report-back of research results (RBRR) is ethically supported and highly requested by participants yet lacks broadly transferable guidelines for RBRR. Effective RBRR must be responsive to target audience needs and may not be addressed by a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. Objective. Within a subset of our 19 studies on RBRR, we had the unique opportunity to carry out a comparative analysis of RBRR strategies across cohorts with similar development and evaluation methods, yet distinct in life stage, geography, number and type of chemicals assessed, and community contexts. Methods. We highlight key outcomes from three environmental health studies: an ongoing New York, NY cohort (Fair Start; n=486) and a Detroit, MI cohort (CLEAR; n=34) assessing exposure to ambient urban pollution during pregnancy, and a longitudinal cohort in Houston, TX (Houston-3H) following Hurricane Harvey (n=312). Focus group and survey data were analyzed to identify lessons learned and explore how RBRR supports understanding of environmental health. Results. Commonalities emerged in RBRR development, design, organization, and data visualization, as well as in how RBRR can contribute to an understanding of health-environment connections. Differences included preferences for individual versus community level findings, as well as distinguishable contextual considerations. For pregnancy cohorts, messaging was framed with cultural sensitivity, and to avoid unintended consequences of parental guilt due to prenatal exposures. In the post-disaster Houston-3H study, participants requested additional transparency regarding sampling design and study rationale. Significance. All RBRR case studies reported chemicals without known regulatory or health guidelines, so results were contextualized within the study population. Participants across cohorts requested multi-study comparisons to better understand their results beyond their communities. While foundational RBRR elements (e.g. plain language, graphic organizers) may supersede cohort-specific differences, RBRR should be personalized to encompass perceptions of health across different life-stage, cultural, and environmental contexts.

Vogel, Taylor J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ocean internal tides suppress tropical cyclones in the South China Sea

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are devastating natural disasters. Analyzing four decades of global TC data, here we find that among all global TC-active basins, the South China Sea (SCS) stands out as particularly difficult ocean for TCs to intensify, despite favorable atmosphere and ocean conditions. Over the SCS, TC intensification rate and its probability for a rapid intensification (intensification by ≥ 15.4 m s −1 day −1 ) are only 1/2 and 1/3, respectively, of those for the rest of the world ocean. Originating from complex interplays between astronomic tides and the SCS topography, gigantic ocean internal tides interact with TC-generated oceanic near-inertial waves and induce a strong ocean cooling effect, suppressing the TC intensification. Inclusion of this interaction between internal tides and TC in operational weather prediction systems is expected to improve forecast of TC intensity in the SCS and in other regions where strong internal tides are present.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

El Niño increases the risk of lower Mississippi River flooding

Mississippi River floods rank among the costliest climate-related disasters in the world. Improving flood predictability, preparedness, and response at seasonal to decadal time-scales requires an understanding of the climatic controls that govern flood occurrence. Linking flood occurrence to persistent modes of climate variability like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has proven challenging, due in part to the limited number of high-magnitude floods available for study in the instrumental record. To augment the relatively short instrumental record, we use output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to investigate the dynamical controls on discharge extremes of the lower Mississippi River. We show that through its regional influence on surface water storage, the warm phase of ENSO preconditions the lower Mississippi River to be vulnerable to flooding. In the 6–12 months preceding a flood, El Niño generates a positive precipitation anomaly over the lower Mississippi basin that gradually builds up soil moisture and reduces the basin’s infiltration capacity, thereby elevating the risk of a major flood during subsequent rainstorms. Our study demonstrates how natural climate variability mediates the formation of extreme floods on one of the world’s principal commercial waterways, adding significant predictive ability to near- and long-term forecasts of flood risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-platform analysis of public responses to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence on Twitter and Reddit

Online social networks (OSNs) have become a powerful tool to study collective human responses to extreme events such as earthquakes. Most previous research concentrated on a single platform and utilized users’ behaviors on a single platform to study people’s general responses. In this study, we explore the characteristics of people’s behaviors on different OSNs and conduct a cross-platform analysis of public responses to earthquakes. Our findings support the Uses and Gratification theory that users on Reddit and Twitter are engaging with platforms that they may feel best reflect their sense of self. Using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes as our study cases, we collected 510,579 tweets and 45,770 Reddit posts (including 1437 submissions and 44,333 comments) to answer the following research questions: (1) What were the similarities and differences between public responses on Twitter and Reddit? (2) Considering the different mechanisms of Twitter and Reddit, what unique information of public responses can we learn from Reddit as compared with Twitter? By answering these research questions, we aim to bridge the gap of cross-platform public responses research towards natural hazards. Our study evinces that the users on the two different platforms have both different topics of interest and different sentiments towards the same earthquake, which indicates the necessity of investigating cross-platform OSNs to reveal a more comprehensive picture of people’s general public responses towards certain disasters. Our analysis also finds that r/conspiracy subreddit is one of the major venues where people discuss the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes on Reddit and different misinformation/conspiracies spread on Twitter and Reddit platforms (e.g., “Big one is coming” on Twitter and “Nuclear test” on Reddit).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗