Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Cost Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) concept definition study. Volume 2, part 2: System engineering

The latest technical and programmatic developments are considered as well as expansions of the Rockwell SPS cost model covering each phase of the program through the year 2030. Comparative cost/economic analyses cover elements of the satellite, construction system, space transportation vehicles and operations, and the ground receiving station. System plans to define time phased costs and planning requirements that support major milestones through the year 2000. A special analysis is included on natural resources required to build the SPS reference configuration. An appendix contains the SPS Work Breakdown Structure and dictionary along with detail cost data sheet on each system and main element of the program. Over 200 line items address DDT&E, theoretical first unit, investment cost per satellite, and operations charges for replacement capital and normal operations and maintenance costs.

Hanley, G. M.↗

Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

Plumer, Eric↗

Inspection error and its adverse effects - A model with implications for practitioners

Inspection error has clearly been shown to have adverse effects upon the results desired from a quality assurance sampling plan. These effects upon performance measures have been well documented from a statistical point of view. However, little work has been presented to convince the QC manager of the unfavorable cost consequences resulting from inspection error. This paper develops a very general, yet easily used, mathematical cost model. The basic format of the well-known Guthrie-Johns model is used. However, it is modified as required to assess the effects of attributes sampling errors of the first and second kind. The economic results, under different yet realistic conditions, will no doubt be of interest to QC practitioners who face similar problems daily. Sampling inspection plans are optimized to minimize economic losses due to inspection error. Unfortunately, any error at all results in some economic loss which cannot be compensated for by sampling plan design; however, improvements over plans which neglect the presence of inspection error are possible. Implications for human performance betterment programs are apparent, as are trade-offs between sampling plan modification and inspection and training improvements economics.

Collins, R. D., Jr.↗

Herbaceous Feedstock 2018 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and elsewhere (such as the High-Tonnage Feedstock Logistics projects (Webb et al. 2013a, Webb et al. 2013b, Webb et al. 2013c, Webb and Sokhansanj 2014, Sokhansanj et al. 2014) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D improvements to individual supply system unit operations, and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible, and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Program Plan. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT aligned feedstock logistic design with current biorefinery’s design capacity utilized by biochemical conversion platform. Currently biochemical conversion platform utilizes a 725,000 dry ton/year biorefiney design for the techno economic analysis. Hence, feedstock delivered cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT is calculated based on biorefinery’s 725,000 dry ton design capacity instead of 800, 000 dry ton capacity utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. Biomass availabilities in this SOT were updated to year 2018 data from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (BT16) (DOE 2016a), with the exception of switchgrass, for which the 2018 Herbaceous SOT utilized the 2019 switchgrass availability data from BT16. The BT16 report (DOE 2016a) does not project switchgrass availability in 2018; the soonest switchgrass is available in the BT16 report is 2019. Therefore, availability of switchgrass for this analysis was that projected for 2019. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT incorporates same technologies utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. However, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the impact of variation of process parameters on those technologies on feedstock logistic cost. New R&D data that shows the variations of process parameters affecting process performance is incorporated in the 2018 SOT to measure the variations in delivered feedstock cost. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT has also provided projected delivered feedstock of 2022 design case based on near term technical target under BETO funded R&D project. Finally, updated biorefinery size of 725,000 dry ton/year was incorporated within least-cost formulation model to select optimal siting and depot scales during optimization of the least cost blend. This modification to the optimization algorithm allows the trade-off between the cost of increased supply radius and the savings from selecting biomass from higher producing counties to be assessed. Such optimization has also showed the economic benefit of decentralized depots in comparison to centralized preprocessing co-located with the biorefinery by decoupling the biorefinery and feedstock locations. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT report documents the current modeled cost of a herbaceous feedstock supply system (from harvest to the pretreatment reactor throat, including grower payment) for hydrocarbon fuel production via biochemical conversion, based on equipment and processes now available or potentially available in the near term. The modeled cost also considers both the required quality and the availability of the biomass resources. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $83.67/dry ton (2016$); this is a $0.23/dry ton (2016$) decrease from the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. The modification of biorefinery’s designed capacity and increased projected biomass availability in the same supply shed contributed to this modeled cost reduction. The least-cost formulation model to optimally site and scale local distributed preprocessing depots also contributed to the cost reduction by considering county-level grower payment and distance from the biorefinery as variables in the optimization algorithm. Sensitivity analysis on various process parameters that affect delivered feedstock cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT shows that the delivered cost could varies from $80.45-$88.83/dry ton. The top factors that causes such variations are: effective baling rate, bale density, hammer mill throughput, interest rate and storage dry matter loss.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

High Energy Storage Capacity Low Cost Iron Flow Battery

A new flow battery was proposed that utilizes low cost materials: iron as the only active element, cheap aqueous electrolytes, and inexpensive separators. During charging, ferrous iron (Fe 2+ ) is oxidized to ferric iron (Fe 3+ ) at the positive electrode while it (Fe 2+ ) is reduced to form iron metal (Fe 0 ) at the negative electrode. Because iron is plated at the negative electrode during charging, conventional electrode structures couple the energy storage capacity and the power rating of the battery. In order to decouple the energy and power ratings and regain the economic advantages of a flow battery, a slurry electrode design was proposed for use as the negative electrode. The slurry electrode is made by flowing electrically conductive particles in an electrolyte containing the dissolved iron species. On charging, iron is plated onto the particles. The particles can then carry the iron metal out of the cell to be stored in external reservoirs. This project looked to develop a slurry for the negative electrode of the all-iron flow battery that can operate at 200 mA/cm 2 with <100 mV overpotential, be pumped with parasitic energy costs < 10%, and promote plating on the particles. A scalable and stackable cell design of 1100 cm 2 was developed. The project was initially under contract in mid-January 2013. The project was converted from a one-year proof of concept seedling to an additional two-year program, then extended with an 18-month plus-up, and finally with an additional 6-month approved cost-overrun. During the seeding project, the concept of plating on carbon particles in a slurry was demonstrated. However, this was accomplished with high-cost multi-walled carbon nanotubes as the slurry material. The following two-year program discovered several low-cost carbon blacks that could also be used in this application. These findings were supported by an analysis that demonstrated the effectiveness of the carbon that takes into account not just the effective electronic conductivity of the slurry, but also the surface area per volume of the slurry. It was demonstrated that stable, flowable slurries could be created with these carbons, even when the carbons where fully loaded with iron during charging. During the two-year program, laboratory-scale 50 cm 2 single-cells demonstrated charge-discharge cycling at current densities of 150 mA/cm 2 and energy efficiencies of >50%. Meanwhile, cost modeling continued to show promise for this energy storage approach. Following the conversion period, the overall objective of the nominally 18-month plus up period was to close the technical gap of a 25X scale-up and reduce risk to enable commercial investment required to develop a slurry iron flow battery product. A specific objective was to demonstrate 150 cycles of performance exceeding 70% energy efficiency with a 10-cell stack of 1156 cm 2 cells operating at 100 mA/cm 2 . The 10-cell short stack was designed to have a power delivery rating of approximately 1 kW, which represents a size commensurate with the requirements of our commercialization partner at that time. A complete battery support system for the full-size cell was designed, fabricated, and tested. This includes pumps (multiple types were considered, and constant volume hose pumps were found to be acceptable for performance and cost), electrolyte rebalance reactor, and sensors and control systems. The support system proved to be well-behaved and worked well. A new low-cost membrane was developed for this system based on a microporous polymer support with a layer of hydrogel polymer. The membrane had low resistivity, and significantly reduced pressure driven fluid flow across the membrane (as compared to the un-coated microporous support). This membrane approach was scaled-up in conjunction with a commercial toll coating company, and a large amount of membrane was manufactured to support large cell and stack testing. A new concept for an electrolyte rebalance reactor to react hydrogen gas from the negative electrolyte (from plating inefficiency) with excess ferric ion in the positive electrolyte was developed. This design was very simple, low cost, and effective. The full scale 1156 cm 2 single-cell was designed, modeled, fabricated and tested. Modeling showed that uniform flow-distribution should be obtained with the designed flow distributor. The design took into consideration the need to stack the cells, and components were fabricated for a ten-cell stack. Testing of the cell for charge and discharge demonstrated current densities of 50 mA/cm 2 with efficiencies of 50%. However, optimization and long cycling could not be accomplished because the slurry electrode would plug within the cell and block the flow. This would shut down the cell after several charge-discharge cycles. Various approaches were pursued to address this problem with some progress. However, there was not adequate time to find solutions to the problem although several promising approaches were identified for future work. The final deliverable for this proposed 18-month effort was to be a 1 kW, 6 kWh slurry flow battery, with complete balance of plant, ready for testing at an ARPA-E ‘Charges’ site with an estimated capital cost less than $\$ $45/kWh for a six-hour system (excluding power electronics). The deliverable milestone was not achieved for reasons mentioned above related to the slurry plugging. At the completion of this project, it was determined that the cost targets are achievable. The cost estimate for a 1 MW system with a one-hour capacity was estimated at $\$ $140/kWh (including power electronics) and for a six-hour system was estimated at $\$ $40/kWh (including power electronics). These costs include the battery, the balance of plant, the power conditioning and a concrete pad. This program resulted in three patents including the slurry-based iron flow battery, the rebalance reactor, and the membrane separator. At the time of this report, slurry-based iron flow battery patents have been issued in the US, China, Japan, Korea, and Europe. The other patent applications were under various stages of examination. A licensee was identified and the company initiated a scale-up and development program to take this technology to the marketplace, and CWRU staff have transferred their know-how and knowledge base to the company. This technology will enhance the economic and energy security of the United States by enabling the use of intermittent renewable energy technology, such as wind and solar power, as dispatchable resources. This report summarizes the results of this research and development program.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

Sundaram, Meenakshi↗

Physics-guided logistic classification for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining

This paper describes a physics-guided logistic classification method for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining. Tool life is modeled using a classification method since the exact tool life cannot be measured in a typical production environment where tool wear can only be directly measured when the tool is replaced. Here, in this study, laboratory tool wear experiments are used to simulate tool wear data normally collected during part production. Two states are defined: tool not worn (class 0) and tool worn (class 1). The non-linear reduction in tool life with cutting speed is modeled by applying a logarithmic transformation to the inputs for the logistic classification model. A method for interpretability of the logistic model coefficients is provided by comparison with the empirical Taylor tool life model. The method is validated using tool wear experiments for milling. Results show that the physics-guided logistic classification method can predict tool life using limited datasets. A method for pre-process optimization of machining parameters using a probabilistic machining cost model is presented. The proposed method offers a robust and practical approach to tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in a production environment.

Machine learning↗

Modeling the Value Recovery of Rare Earth Permanent Magnets at End-of-Life

Permanent magnets containing rare earth elements (REEs) such as Dysprosium and Neodymium offer an advantage over non-REE containing magnets (e.g. ferrite or AlNiCo) in terms of power relative to size. However, REE availability has varied significantly in recent years leading to volatility in the cost of rare earth permanent magnets (REPMs). The supply of REEs can be increased by recycling consumer products and industrial machinery that contain REPMs at product end-of-life (EOL). This paper discusses the REE recovery process for EOL products. The optimal dismantling of products is examined with an emphasis placed on obtaining used REPMs. The challenge of collecting, managing, transporting, and processing used products is addressed through the development of a cost model for REPM recovery. This model is used to investigate several EOL strategies for recovering REPMs. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the key factors that influence value recovery economics. A hard disk drive serves as a case study for model demonstration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Photovoltaics Module Manufacturing with Thin Silicon Wafers

Reducing silicon usage by adopting thinner wafers can significantly reduce capital expenditure (capex) and cost, and thus accelerate the growth of manufacturing capacity and deployment. In this work, we evaluated potential benefits of thin Si wafers for current and future PV modules. We apply a technoeconomic framework that couples bottom-up cost model, and a cash-flow growth model to analyze PV modules with thin wafers. First, we show that, comparing the current PERC with 160 um thick wafers to the high-efficiency concept with 50 um thin wafers, the capex is reduced from 0.39 to 0.2 $/(W/year) while the cost is from 0.32 to 0.2 $/W. Second, the potential of accelerated deployment is analyzed for the highefficiency thin wafer concept. We found the significant advantages of higher growth rate (~20% relative) and higher deployment plateau (~3 times) than the current PERC modules. modules with thin wafers. First, we show that, comparing the current PERC with 160 um thick wafers to the high-efficiency concept with 50 um thin wafers, the capex is reduced from 0.39 to 0.2 $/(W/year) while the cost is from 0.32 to 0.2 $/W. Second, the potential of accelerated deployment is analyzed for the highefficiency thin wafer concept. We found the significant advantages of higher growth rate (~20% relative) and higher deployment plateau (~3 times) than the current PERC modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Demand Response in Bangalore: Implications for Electricity System Operations

Recent Greening the Grid studies for India highlight the benefits of flexible resources for integrating variable renewable energy onto India’s electricity system. India’s ambitious renewable energy targets, which are particularly focused on renewable resource states such as Karnataka, will face fewer challenges when combined with new planning and operational strategies and technologies. This report explores one such strategy - demand response - by which the system operator shifts load throughout a day to minimize system wide production costs. To explore this strategy, we added demand response resources to Karnataka’s electricity system in a production cost model of India, using load shifting potential analyzed by Lawrence Berkeley National Labs. We then investigated the impacts of increasing demand response capacity under several renewable resource scenarios. Our results show the addition of demand response enables fuel shifting from high-marginal-cost and emissions-intensive subcritical coal and diesel generation to zero-marginal-cost and emissions-free renewable generation. Accordingly, the value that demand response provides to the system increases as the renewable penetration increases. In addition to reducing production costs and emissions, demand response reduces the time that thermal generators spend at their minimum output levels, which typically represents a less efficient and costlier operational state. Agricultural load shifting provides greater value to the system than residential, commercial, or industrial loads. Agricultural demand response is more flexible than other sectors because it is not exposed to subdaily operational constraints and it can operate for more hours per day without impacting customer satisfaction. Further, the first increment of demand response that is added to a system provides the greatest value; further additions provide additional benefits but have a decreasing impact. The insights we discuss could be leveraged by system planners and operators in other jurisdictions, particularly those facing significant renewable energy penetrations, to develop their own demand response programs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Study of short-haul aircraft operating economics, volume 1

A short-haul air transportation operating cost model is developed. The effect is identified of such factors as level of service provided, traffic density of the market, stage length, number of flight cycles, level of automation, as well as aircraft type and other operational factors on direct and indirect operating costs.

Source record↗

A Framework for Preliminary Design of Aircraft Structures Based on Process Information

This report discusses the general framework and development of a computational tool for preliminary design of aircraft structures based on process information. The described methodology is suitable for multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) activities associated with integrated product and process development (IPPD). The framework consists of three parts: (1) product and process definitions; (2) engineering synthesis, and (3) optimization. The product and process definitions are part of input information provided by the design team. The backbone of the system is its ability to analyze a given structural design for performance as well as manufacturability and cost assessment. The system uses a database on material systems and manufacturing processes. Based on the identified set of design variables and an objective function, the system is capable of performing optimization subject to manufacturability, cost, and performance constraints. The accuracy of the manufacturability measures and cost models discussed here depend largely on the available data on specific methods of manufacture and assembly and associated labor requirements. As such, our focus in this research has been on the methodology itself and not so much on its accurate implementation in an industrial setting. A three-tier approach is presented for an IPPD-MDO based design of aircraft structures. The variable-complexity cost estimation methodology and an approach for integrating manufacturing cost assessment into design process are also discussed. This report is presented in two parts. In the first part, the design methodology is presented, and the computational design tool is described. In the second part, a prototype model of the preliminary design Tool for Aircraft Structures based on Process Information (TASPI) is described. Part two also contains an example problem that applies the methodology described here for evaluation of six different design concepts for a wing spar.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗

Utilization of space resources in the space transportation system

Utilization of space resources (i.e., raw materials obtained from nonterrestrial sources) has often been cited as a prerequisite for large-scale industrialization and habitation of space. While transportation of extremely large quantities of material from Earth would be costly and potentially destructive to our environment, vast quantities of usable resources might be derived from the Moon, the asteroids, and other celestial objects in a cost-effective and environmentally benign manner. The primary purpose of the parametric cost model developed as part of this study is to identify the factors that have the greatest influence on the economics of space resource utilization. In the near term, this information can be used to devise strategies for technology development so that capabilities developed will produce cost-effective results.

Simon, Michael C.↗

Assessing changes in eco-productivity of wastewater treatment plants: The role of costs, pollutant removal efficiency, and greenhouse gas emissions

Highlights: • Temporal dynamics of eco-efficiency were measured for wastewater treatment plants. • Individual drivers (costs, pollutants, GHG) of eco-productivity were quantified. • Most of the plants evaluated worsened its eco-efficiency over time. • Operational costs were the main responsible of negative eco-technical change. - Abstract: Improving eco-efficiency of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) has been identified as being essential for achieving urban sustainability. Several previous papers have evaluated the eco-efficiency of WWTPs using data envelopment analysis (DEA) models. However, those models provided only a static assessment in that they ignored possible fluctuations over time within each plant. To overcome this temporal limitation, this paper evaluates dynamic eco-efficiency (changes in eco-productivity over time) of WWTPs using the dynamic weighted Russell directional distance model (WRDDM). This approach allows one to obtain an eco-productivity change index for each major component of the WRDDM model (costs, pollutants removal, and greenhouse gas emissions). Our results illustrate that although eco-productivity improved in half of the WWTPs we assessed, there was still potential for improving some eco-efficiency components. Moreover, operational costs and greenhouse gases emissions were the main drivers reducing eco-productivity. This paper demonstrates the importance of evaluating change in eco-productivity over time and in identifying the drivers associated with those changes, both of which can be used to support decision-making focused on the sustainability of WWTPs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Elevating zero dimensional global scaling predictions to self-consistent theory-based simulations

In this work, we have developed an innovative workflow, Stability, Transport, Equilibrium, and Pedestal (STEP)-zero-dimensional (0D), within the OMFIT integrated modeling framework. Through systematic validation against the International Tokamak Physics Activity global H-mode confinement database, we demonstrated that STEP-0D, on average, predicts the energy confinement time with a mean relative error of less than 19%. Moreover, this workflow showed promising potential in predicting plasmas for proposed fusion reactors such as the affordable, robust, compact (ARC) reactor, the European demonstration power plant (EU-DEMO), and the China fusion engineering test reactor (CFETR) indicating moderate H-factors between 0.9 and 1.2. STEP-0D allows theory-based prediction of tokamak scenarios, beginning with 0D quantities. The workflow initiates with the PRO-create module, generating physically consistent plasma profiles and equilibrium using the same 0D quantities as the IPB98(y,2) confinement scaling. This sets the starting point for the STEP module, which further iterates between theory-based physics models of equilibrium, core transport, and pedestal to yield a self-consistent solution. Given these attributes, STEP-0D not only improves the accuracy of predicting plasma performance but also provides a path toward a novel fusion power plant design workflow. When integrated with engineering and costing models within an optimization, this new approach could eliminate the iterative reconciliation between plasma models of varying fidelity. This potential for a more efficient design process underpins STEP-0D's significant contribution to future fusion power plant development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Market participation strategy of hybrid energy resources: A New York ISO case study

Drawing on existing market designs with independent resource participation in electricity markets, this study analyzes participation models for hybrid resources combining renewable generation and storage. Two models are considered: in the first, the components operate independently, with the Independent System Operator (ISO) managing the storage state of charge (SoC); in the second, the hybrid resource acts as an integrated unit, submitting offers as a “black box” and managing its SoC internally. Using a production cost model for the zonal New York Bulk Power System, we evaluate trade-offs in system reliability, market efficiency, and asset profitability. Our results provide several key insights for policymakers, showing that the ISO-managed granular model enhances social welfare through explicit SoC management, while the simpler integrated model is more computationally efficient, but may cause more real-time violations and lower overall profits.

Bansal, Rajni Kant↗

Spacecraft Complexity Subfactors and Implications on Future Cost Growth

During the last ten years the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has used a set of cost-risk subfactors to independently estimate the magnitude of development risks that may not be covered in the high level cost models employed during early concept development. Within the last several years the Laboratory has also developed a scale of Concept Maturity Levels with associated criteria to quantitatively assess a concept's maturity. This latter effort has been helpful in determining whether a concept is mature enough for accurate costing but it does not provide any quantitative estimate of cost risk. Unfortunately today's missions are significantly more complex than when the original cost-risk subfactors were first formulated. Risks associated with complex missions are not being adequately evaluated and future cost growth is being underestimated. The risk subfactor process needed to be updated.

Mission Design↗

Silver-free Metallization Technology for Producing High Efficiency, Industrial Silicon Solar Cells

The goal of this project is to provide a commercially viable Ag-free metallization technology that will both reduce cost and increase efficiency of standard silicon solar cells. By removing silver from the front grid metallization and replacing it with lower cost nickel, copper, and tin metal, the front grid direct materials costs will decrease. This reduction in material costs should provide a path to meeting the Sunshot 2020 goal of 1 dollar / W DC . As of today, plated contacts are not widely implemented in large scale manufacturing. For organizations that wish to implement pilot scale manufacturing, only two equipment choices exist. These equipment manufacturers do not supply plating chemistry. The main goal of this project is to provide a chemistry and equipment solution to the industry that enables reliable manufacturing of plated contacts marked by passing reliability results and higher efficiencies than silver paste front grid contacts. To date, there have been several key findings that point to plated contacts performing equal to or better than the current state of the art silver paste contacts. Poor adhesion and reliability concerns are a few of the hurdles for plated contacts, specifically plated nickel directly on silicon. A key finding of the Phase 1 budget period is that the plated contacts have the same adhesion as the silver paste controls. This is a huge win for plated contacts. With very little optimization work, state of the art electrical results for plated contacts on laser ablated lines have been demonstrated with efficiencies up to 19.1% and fill factors ~80% on grid lines 40-50 um wide. The silver paste controls with similar line widths demonstrate similar electrical results. By optimizing the emitter and grid design for the plated contacts, it is expected that the electrical performance will exceed the silver paste controls. In addition, cells plated using Technic chemistry and equipment pass reliability testing; i.e. 1000 hours damp heat and 200 thermal cycles, with results similar to silver paste control cells. 100 cells have been processed through Technic’s novel demo plating tool built and installed during budget period 2. This plating tool performed consistently from cell to cell, providing gentle handling for the solar cells. An agreement has been signed with a cell manufacturer to process their cells through our plating chemistry and equipment. Their main focus for plated contacts is to reduce the direct materials cost by utilizing nickel, copper, and tin in place of silver paste. Based on current market conditions and cost model calculations, the overall savings offered by plated contacts is only 3.5% dollar/W versus silver paste contacts; however, the direct materials savings depend on the silver market. If silver prices increase, plated contacts may find a wider adoption in the solar industry in order to keep the direct materials costs down for front grid contacts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗