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At least 703 records · Page 39

Pricing of NASA Space Shuttle transportation system cargo

A two-part pricing policy is investigated as the most feasible method of pricing the transportation services to be provided by NASA's SSTS. Engineering cost estimates and a deterministic operating cost model generate a data base and develop a procedure for pricing the services of the SSTS. It is expected that the SSTS will have a monopoly on space material processing in areas of crystal growth, glass processing, metallurgical space applications, and biomedical processes using electrophoresis which will require efficient pricing. Pricing problems, the SSTS operating costs based on orbit elevation, number of launch sites, and number of flights, capital costs of the SSTS, research and development costs, allocation of joint transportation costs of the SSTS to a particular space processing activity, and rates for the SSTS are discussed. It is concluded that joint costs for commercial cargoes carried in the SSTS can be most usefully handled by making cost allocations based on proportionate capacity utilization.

Hale, C. W.↗

Modeling and Market Design Considerations for Conventional and Decarbonized Resources

The following paper reviews various market design issues that will need to be reconsidered due to anticipated changes in the resources that supply energy in wholesale electricity markets. As the energy supply continues towards decarbonization, the change in resource technologies will affect the fundamentals of production scheduling and the policies to address supply variability and uncertainty. We show through simple numerical examples that the existing market design approach based on fuel costs will result in $0/MWh prices with intermittent price spikes during reserve shortages, but that incorporating more granular reserve pricing, energy storage participation, and price-responsive demand participation can restore efficient market clearing with reasonable pricing outcomes. The market design approach fundamentally shifts from fuel based to opportunity cost based. We briefly review alternative market design frameworks that can support this shift, including intraday markets, decentralized markets, flexibility options, and swing contracts. Market designs may also be required to accommodate or support various out-of-market policies and agreements; ideally, these external factors can be integrated into the market design to facilitate efficient exchanges across longer time scales, between other markets, and in support of public policy goals. The paper concludes by discussing how decarbonization trends may affect the design and use of production cost models for short term operations and long term planning studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Inventory for Crystalline Silicon Module Recycling: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

A critical challenge for the continued expansion of photovoltaics (PV) is to develop technically feasible, inexpensive and environmentally friendly practices for handling and recycling modules at the end of their usable life. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is requested by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to collect primary data regarding the environmental performance of currently operational PV module recycling facilities in Europe. Very little has been published regarding crystalline silicon (C-Si) module recycling. Thus, much effort will be needed in direct industry outreach, collection of information and other business intelligence strategies similar to NREL's approaches for developing cost models for PV manufacturing. The goal of this work effort is to produce a detailed inventory that accounts for physical (e.g., energy, water, materials) flows through each step of a C-Si recycling process. The inventory (a life cycle inventory, or LCI) shall be designed so that it can be extended to include an accounting of costs for each process step, inputs, etc. This work effort shall leverage prior LCI data collection NREL performed for the United States Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technologies Office, under the auspices of the U.S. contribution to International Energy Agency's Photovoltaics Power Systems (PVPS) Task 12 (Environmental Health and Safety), which SETO nominated NREL to chair. The primary purpose of this work effort is to augment the prior data collection to increase the sample size of manufacturers' primary data in the LCI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Higher Fidelity Cost Analysis of Wind and Uranium from Seawater Acquisition symbiotic Infrastructure

The vastness of the worlds oceans makes the low concentration of naturally existing uranium, 3.3 ppb, appealing as a recoverable natural resource. Although ample uranium is available currently through conventional means, uranium from seawater is a widely studied topic due to the long term security it can assure the nuclear fuel cycle. It is important to mention that seawater uranium is not meant to act as a direct competitor to terrestrial uranium, but instead create a cost ceiling that provides economic stability and potential savings. Additionally, seawater uranium could circumvent some of the environmental impacts associated with recovery of any land based resource. The system currently studied by a nation-wide consortium of national lab and university partners involves the passive recovery of uranium using polymer based adsorbents. High Density Polyethylene fibers undergo a radiation induced graft co-polymerization process involving amidoxime, to attract uranium, and a polar co-monomer to increase hydrophilicity. After further chemical conditioning adsorbent fibers are braided into 60 meter strands for marine deployment. Braids are moored to the ocean floor for the duration of their soaking campaign. After sufficient seawater exposure they are winched up so the adsorbed uranium may be eluted off the braids. This deployment and elution process is repeated multiple times before the adsorbent's ultimate disposal, where its lifetime is dictated by the degradation it suffers with each re-cycle. Previous economic analyses have identified the adsorbent production and mooring as the most expensive components of the recovery process. Therefore, a later publication by Picard et al. proposed an alternative deployment method in an effort to reduce seawater uranium production cost. The Wind and Uranium from Seawater Acquisition symbiotic Infrastructure (WUSABI) couples uranium recovery with off shore wind to reduce mooring capital cost. The uranium harvesting structure attached to the underwater base of the wind turbine supports elution tanks and an adsorbent pulley system. This allows for a nearly autonomous mooring and elution procedure as adsorbent is in constant motion, reaching the elution tanks at the end of its soaking campaign. Although the original publication did include a short economic section, further analysis was carried out to provide a higher fidelity production cost estimate for uranium recovered by this system. Sufficient detail was provided regarding the capital and operating costs of the novel uranium harvesting units. The adsorbent production and uranium elution and purification steps however were estimated by simpler methods, for example applying a previously reported cost for producing a unit mass of adsorbent. This methodology, although satisfactory for the zeroth-order approximation desired in the original publication, overlooks many of the complexities and feedbacks embedded in the full cost model, which are necessary to provide a more accurate estimate. Perhaps more importantly, given the constant updates regarding adsorbent synthesis and performance this value quickly become outdated. Syncing an improved estimate for the WUSABI harvesting units with the existing economic analysis for adsorbent production and elution, which evolves in tandem with the technology, provides a more robust production cost estimate that will remain current over time. In addition to the updates and higher level of detail provided in this independent analysis, consistency in methodology allows for accurate comparison of uranium production costs across recovery methods. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Energy cost savings and expected payback for Re-tuning the controls of US Army buildings

The Headquarters Department of the Army (HQDA) sponsored a study to determine the national impact of deploying the Re-tuning™ methodology in 5 buildings types that account for over 40% of the Army’s conditioned building stock. Re-tuning is a systematic process that improves operational efficiency and reduces energy consumption at no- or low-cost through the building automation system (BAS) by correcting operational problems that plague buildings. The study relied on successful demonstration of the re-tuning methodology at 4 pilot US Army installations that informed a holistic effort that included simulating 12 individual re-tuning energy efficiency measures (EEMs) and 6 packages of EEMs in 5 selected Army building prototype models that represent 311 million ft2 (28.9 million m2) of the Army’s conditioned floor space. Both the baseline buildings and the packages were customized to capture the expected outcomes of re-tuning a diverse set of buildings. The study highlighted the benefit of individual re-tuning EEMs and economics of implementing packages of EEMs in applicable Army buildings across 16 climates and 2 building vintages. The average whole-building energy savings ranged from 10.8% to 40.5% by building type, with the company operations facility (COF) building having the highest value proposition from re-tuning. In addition, the study reveals that all large office (LO) buildings in the Army are economical to re-tune. The total modeled cost savings potential for re-tuning the five building types across the US Army is $204/1,000 sf ($220/100 m2), or $64M annually. This cost savings represents 5.6% of all the Army’s energy expenditures.

Fernandez, Nicholas EP↗

Load Balancing Sequences of Unstructured Adaptive Grids

Mesh adaption is a powerful tool for efficient unstructured grid computations but causes load imbalance on multiprocessor systems. To address this problem, we have developed PLUM, an automatic portable framework for performing adaptive large-scale numerical computations in a message-passing environment. This paper makes several important additions to our previous work. First, a new remapping cost model is presented and empirically validated on an SP2. Next, our load balancing strategy is applied to sequences of dynamically adapted unstructured grids. Results indicate that our framework is effective on many processors for both steady and unsteady problems with several levels of adaption. Additionally, we demonstrate that a coarse starting mesh produces high quality load balancing, at a fraction of the cost required for a fine initial mesh. Finally, we show that the data remapping overhead can be significantly reduced by applying our heuristic processor reassignment algorithm.

Biswas, Rupak↗

The Solar Umbrella: A Low-cost Demonstration of Scalable Space Based Solar Power

Within the past decade, the Space Solar Power (SSP) community has seen an influx of stakeholders willing to entertain the SSP prospect of potentially boundless, base-load solar energy. Interested parties affiliated with the Department of Defense (DoD), the private sector, and various international entities have all agreed that while the benefits of SSP are tremendous and potentially profitable, the risk associated with developing an efficient end to end SSP harvesting system is still very high. In an effort to reduce the implementation risk for future SSP architectures, this study proposes a system level design that is both low-cost and seeks to demonstrate the furthest transmission of wireless power to date. The overall concept is presented and each subsystem is explained in detail with best estimates of current implementable technologies. Basic cost models were constructed based on input from JPL subject matter experts and assume that the technology demonstration would be carried out by a federally funded entity. The main thrust of the architecture is to demonstrate that a usable amount of solar power can be safely and reliably transmitted from space to the Earth's surface; however, maximum power scalability limits and their cost implications are discussed.

climate change↗

New Method for Systems and Cost Analysis of Human Mars Entry Vehicles

Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically not estimated until after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more efficiently. This paper describes an extension to the tool SAPE (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing). This extension integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools. This new method is used to analyze several trade spaces of a HIAD (Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator) entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of ballistic coefficient, main engine specific impulse, and thrust-to-weight ratio on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.

Friz, Paul D.↗

Specific Energy Analysis for the Manufacturing of Light-Weight Automobile Body

This manuscript analyses the specific energy requirements to produce two hybridised vehicle structures on current automotive assembly lines. It provides quantitative and specific electric (kWhr/vehicle) and fossil-fuel (MMBtu/vehicle) energy predictions of the body-in-white (BIW) manufacturing processes including body panel forming, welding, painting, and final assembly, in addition to the facility heating ventilation and air conditioning or HVAC consumption. Two hybridised BIW design criteria are analysed; the first is based on minimising the added cost per unit weight saved (+$/-kg), while the second is based on maximising the percentage of weight saved (% -kg). Also a new criterion; that is the added specific-energy per unit weight-saved or (+kWhr/vehicle/-kg) is proposed. The light-weight structures comprise body parts made of aluminium and steel. To compute energy consumptions, the study utilises the energy performance index (EPI) stochastic model in addition to complementing it with a panel-forming energy model. Cost analysis is also provided for all the major vehicle body-panels using an in-house Excel macro. The study reverse engineers a passenger vehicle BIW using a full-size coordinate measuring machine (CMM). The presented work further highlights the monetary value of the associated emissions when increasing the specific energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The MERMAID project

The tendency for software development projects to be completed over schedule and over budget was documented extensively. Additionally many projects are completed within budgetary and schedule target only as a result of the customer agreeing to accept reduced functionality. In his classic book, The Mythical Man Month, Fred Brooks exposes the fallacy that effort and schedule are freely interchangeable. All current cost models are produced on the assumption that there is very limited scope for schedule compression unless there is a corresponding reduction in delivered functionality. The Metrication and Resources Modeling Aid (MERMAID) project, partially financed by the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) as Project 2046 began in Oct. 1988 and its goal were as follows: (1) improvement of understanding of the relationships between software development productivity and product and process metrics; (2) to facilitate the widespread technology transfer from the Consortium to the European Software Industry; and (3) to facilitate the widespread uptake of cost estimation techniques by the provision of prototype cost estimation tools. MERMAID developed a family of methods for cost estimation, many of which have had tools implemented in prototypes. These prototypes are best considered as toolkits or workbenches.

Cowderoy, A. J. C.↗

Wind Plant Operations and Maintenance Challenges and Research Opportunities

Global wind industry has experienced tremendous growth during the past two decades and the trend does not appear changing in near future. However, the industry is still challenged by premature component failures and high operations & maintenance (O&M) costs, which can account for up to 35% of levelized cost of energy. It is imperative for the industry to improve performance, reliability and reduce O&M costs through advanced technologies, enabled by research in related disciplines, to be competitive. This talk will first briefly discuss the challenges with wind plant O&M, then give an overview of related NREL research in the areas of performance, reliability, and O&M cost modeling, finally touch on future R&D opportunities in related areas. The authors hope some of these challenges are of interested to and can be addressed by the INFORMS community in future.

costs↗

A Total Cost of Ownership Model for Low Temperature PEM Fuel Cells in Combined Heat and Power and Backup Power Applications

A total cost of ownership model is described for low temperature proton exchange membrane stationary fuel cell systems for combined heat and power (CHP) applications from 1-250kW and backup power applications from 1-50kW. System designs and functional specifications for these two applications were developed across the range of system power levels. Bottom-up cost estimates were made for balance of plant costs, and detailed direct cost estimates for key fuel cell stack components were derived using design-for-manufacturing-and-assembly techniques. The development of high throughput, automated processes achieving high yield are projected to reduce the cost for fuel cell stacks to the $300/kW level at an annual production volume of 100 MW. Several promising combinations of building types and geographical location in the U.S. were identified for installation of fuel cell CHP systems based on the LBNL modelling tool DER CAM. Life-cycle modelling and externality assessment were done for hotels and hospitals. Reduced electricity demand charges, heating credits and carbon credits can reduce the effective cost of electricity ($/kWhe) by 26-44percent in locations such as Minneapolis, where high carbon intensity electricity from the grid is displaces by a fuel cell system operating on reformate fuel. This project extends the scope of existing cost studies to include externalities and ancillary financial benefits and thus provides a more comprehensive picture of fuel cell system benefits, consistent with a policy and incentive environment that increasingly values these ancillary benefits. The project provides a critical, new modelling capacity and should aid a broad range of policy makers in assessing the integrated costs and benefits of fuel cell systems versus other distributed generation technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Enhanced Catalyst Durability for Bio-Based Adipic Acid Production by Atomic Layer Deposition

Harsh reaction environments challenge the lifetime productivity of conventional catalysts and impede emerging biobased chemical processes. Condensed-phase processing of muconic acid, a biobased platform chemical, leads to problematic levels of catalyst leaching and fouling. Atomic layer deposition (ALD) can improve catalyst durability using protective metal oxide coatings; however, a targeted coating strategy and cost models thereof are needed for application-specific deactivation challenges that can surmount these challenges while accounting for process implications. Herein, we utilize thin (<5 wt% Al) Al2O3 ALD coatings to increase the lifetime productivity of Pd/TiO2 during muconic acid hydrogenation to adipic acid. The ALD coating decreases Pd leaching by >3x and markedly improves the thermal stability of Pd and TiO2. Economic analysis for an adipic acid biorefinery supports that increased material costs and reduced catalyst productivity can be justified through lifetime extension. Broadly, this work lays the foundation for reducing the cost of biobased chemical processes through catalyst stability.

Settle, Amy↗

Estimating Energy Market Schedules Using Historical Price Data: Preprint

The global climate crisis is expected to reshape the energy generation landscape in the coming decades. Increasing integration of non-dispatchable renewable energy resources into energy infrastructures and markets increases uncertainty and creates new opportunities for flexible energy systems. To conduct proper economic evaluation of flexible energy systems, such as integrated energy systems (IES), advancements in modelling of market interactions, such as bidding, is crucial. This work presents a shortcut algorithm which uses two mixed integer linear programs to compute dispatch schedules (e.g., hourly power production targets) that are constrained by the resource's bid information and characteristics (e.g., minimum up and down times) based on historical locational marginal price (LMP) data. This is orders of magnitude less data than required for a market clearing calculation with a full production cost model (PCM). We find the shortcut simulator recapitulates generator dispatch signals for the Prescient PCM with approximately 4% error for the RTS-GMLC test system.

electricity generation↗

Estimating Energy Market Schedules using Historical Price Data

The global climate crisis is expected to reshape the energy generation landscape in the coming decades. Increasing integration of non-dispatchable renewable energy resources into energy infrastructures and markets creates uncertainty as well as new opportunities for flexible energy systems. To conduct proper economic evaluation of flexible energy systems, such as integrated energy systems (IES), advancements in modelling of market interactions, such as bidding, is crucial. This work presents a shortcut algorithm which uses two mixed integer linear programs to compute dispatch schedules (e.g., hourly power production targets) that are constrained by the resource's bid information and characteristics (e.g., minimum up and down times) based on historical locational marginal price (LMP) data. The proposed algorithm is approximately 100 times faster and uses orders of magnitude less data than a full production cost model (PCM). We find the shortcut simulator recapitulates generator dispatch signals for the Prescient PCM with approximately 4% error for the RTS-GMLC test system.

electricity generation↗

NV Energy Electricity Storage Valuation

This study examines how grid-level electricity storage may benet the operations of NV Energy in 2020, and assesses whether those benets justify the cost of the storage system. In order to determine how grid-level storage might impact NV Energy, an hourly production cost model of the Nevada Balancing Authority (\BA") as projected for 2020 was built and used for the study. Storage facilities were found to add value primarily by providing reserve. Value provided by the provision of time-of-day shifting was found to be limited. If regulating reserve from storage is valued the same as that from slower ramp rate resources, then it appears that a reciprocating engine generator could provide additional capacity at a lower cost than a pumped storage hydro plant or large storage capacity battery system. In addition, a 25-MW battery storage facility would need to cost $\$$650/kW or less in order to produce a positive Net Present Value (NPV). However, if regulating reserve provided by storage is considered to be more useful to the grid than that from slower ramp rate resources, then a grid-level storage facility may have a positive NPV even at today's storage system capital costs. The value of having storage provide services beyond reserve and time-of-day shifting was not assessed in this study, and was therefore not included in storage cost-benefit calculations.

Electrical Energy Storage↗

Solvent Dynamics Are Critical to Understanding Carbon Dioxide Dissolution and Hydration in Water

Simulations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in water may aid in understanding the impact of its accumulation in aquatic environments and help advance technologies for carbon capture and utilization (via, e.g., mineralization). Quantum mechanical (QM) simulations based on static molecular models with polarizable continuum solvation poorly reproduce the energetics of CO 2 hydration to form carbonic acid in water, independent of the level of QM theory employed. Only with density-functional-theory-based molecular dynamics and rare-event sampling, followed by energy corrections based on embedded correlated wavefunction theory (in conjunction with density functional embedding theory), can a close agreement between theory and experiment be achieved. Such multilevel simulations can serve as benchmarks for simpler, less costly models, giving insight into potential errors of the latter. The strong influence of sampling/averaging over dynamical solvent configurations on the energetics stems from the difference in polarity of both the transition state and product (both polar) versus the reactant (nonpolar). When a solute undergoes a change in polarity during reaction, affecting its interaction with the solvent, careful assessment of the energetic contribution of the solvent response to this change is critical. Here, we show that static models (without structural sampling) that incorporate three explicit water molecules can yield far superior results than models with more explicit water molecules because fewer water molecules yield less configurational artifacts. Static models intelligently incorporating both explicit (molecules directly participating in the reaction) and implicit solvation, along with a proper QM theory, e.g., CCSD(T) for closed-shell systems, can close the accuracy gap between static and dynamic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗