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Aviation Safety Concerns for the Future

The Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) is a multidisciplinary international group of aviation professionals that was established to identify possible future aviation safety hazards. The principle was adopted that future hazards are undesirable consequences of changes, and a primary activity of FAST became identification and prioritization of possible future changes affecting aviation. Since 2004, FAST has been maintaining a catalogue of "Areas of Change" (AoC) that could potentially influence aviation safety. The horizon for such changes is between 5 to 20 years. In this context, changes must be understood as broadly as possible. An AoC is a description of the change, not an identification of the hazards that result from the change. An ex-post analysis of the AoCs identified in 2004 demonstrates that changes catalogued many years previous were directly implicated in the majority of fatal aviation accidents over the past ten years. This paper presents an overview of the current content of the AoC catalogue and a subsequent discussion of aviation safety concerns related to these possible changes. Interactions among these future changes may weaken critical functions that must be maintained to ensure safe operations. Safety assessments that do not appreciate or reflect the consequences of significant interaction complexity will not be fully informative and can lead to inappropriate trade-offs and increases in other risks. The FAST strongly encourages a system-wide approach to safety risk assessment across the global aviation system, not just within the domain for which future technologies or operational concepts are being considered. The FAST advocates the use of the "Areas of Change" concept, considering that several possible future phenomena may interact with a technology or operational concept under study producing unanticipated hazards.

emerging risks↗

The Cooling Loop A Anomaly of 2013: A Case Study in Human-Systems Resilience

Throughout the history of human spaceflight, NASA has employed an operational paradigm of 24/7 dependence on experts in Mission Control Center (MCC). In addition to nominal flight control and mission operations, these 85+ experts per shift manage anomaly detection, diagnosis, and response, and support the crew in real-time in performing maintenance and repair, procedure execution, and other complex mission operations. Future long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO) will not operate successfully using this same Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) where crew rely on ground controllers, have ready access to resupply, and have a fallback plan of evacuation. As distance from Earth increases and the communication delay grows, crews will need to respond independently and adequately to time-critical vehicle malfunctions. It will not always be sufficient or even possible to ‘safe the system’ and then wait upon ground intervention. A new and radically different HSIA is needed to accommodate the paradigm shift of deep-space travel. Historical International Space Station (ISS) data show that for a 30-day mission, the likelihood of a high-consequence vehicle anomaly of uncertain origin that requires rapid response is greater than 10%. The likelihood of such an event is 50% by the fourth month of the mission, and it grows exponentially with time. Our team has conducted in-depth investigations into these events and their corresponding anomaly resolution activities. Using MCC and Mission Evaluation Room (MER) anomaly resolution artifacts (including meeting summaries, caution and warning data, and ISS daily summaries), we created timelines detailing ground actions and in-orbit events for two significant anomalies. We then mapped these timelines onto Mars transit conditions, introducing a ground-crew communications time delay and shifting immediate response, time-critical task execution, and vehicle commanding to the crew. In detailing successful anomaly resolution in transit to Mars, the timelines highlight where effective resolution requires drastically evolved onboard capabilities. Though this research has yielded a rich data set based on ground response in past missions, there is still insufficient knowledge to assess the potential impact of inflight anomalies on a small autonomous crew on future LDEMs beyond LEO. To begin building an evidence base that will inform future HSIA standards and requirements, we are developing an approach to systematically capture crew anomaly response and procedure execution during early Artemis missions. Being the first human spaceflight beyond LEO since Apollo, early Artemis missions provide a rare and unique opportunity to serve as a testbed for Mars missions. Our work aims to capitalize on planned data collection to derive crew operational responses to anomalous events in real-time. Our team is also researching the level of simulation fidelity required for empirically validating proposed HSIA standards and evaluating HSIA implementations for LDEMs beyond LEO. This work will produce a trade space study of HSIA simulation objectives and fidelity requirements. Ultimately, these research efforts will assist in developing the standards and technologies needed to build a next-generation HSIA for LDEMs beyond LEO.

human-systems integration architecture↗

EVA Swab Kit: Tools and Techniques for Collecting Aseptic Samples from Crewed Space Missions

Introduction: When we send humans to search for life on other planets, we'll need to know what we brought with us versus what may already be there. To ensure our crewed spacecraft meet planetary protection requirements—and to protect our science from human contamination—we'll need to assess and verify whether micro-organisms may be leaking/venting from our spacesuits. This requires collecting samples under Extravehicular Activity (EVA) conditions. Detailed, systematic research on forward contamination from robotic spacecraft has been steadily progressing since the Viking missions, but systematic studies of contamination from space suits has not been conducted in many years. The modern EMU (Extravehicular Mobility Unit) suit used by NASA is designed to leak at rates as high as 100 cc/min. Before humans land on Mars there is a critical need to understand the types and quantities of microbes that could be introduced via space suits. The Human Forward Contamination Assessment team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) has developed a prototype EVA swab tool [1,2,3,4] designed for use in space to sample cleaned and uncleaned space suits to determine the present day microbial load and eventually the rate of leakage. The ability to assess microbial leakage early in advanced space suit and life support system design cycles will help avoid costly hardware redesign later. Test Objectives: The primary objective of EMU testing was to characterize the type of micro-organisms typically found on or near selected suit pressure joints under suit differential pressure conditions. Most human-borne microbes can fit through a 0.5 to 1.0 µm gap. Knowing which joints are more likely to leak will inform hardware design decisions. Knowing which types of micro-organisms may leak from EVA suits provides a basis for subsequent studies to characterize the viability of those organisms under destination conditions, as well as how far they might spread through natural or human-influenced processes. That data, in turn, will inform exploration mission operations and hardware design. The secondary objective of testing was to evaluate the interface between a fully suited test subject and the EVA swab tool at vacuum. Bulky EVA suits can restrict movement and limit visibility through the helmet visor. Fully suited testing is important for identifying tool design issues prior to flight. At exploration destinations, such as Mars, suited crew may be required to periodically sample their suits as part of an environmental monitoring protocol. Suit Microbial Sampling Results: This report details results of microbial swabs collected from current flight suit configurations worn by crew members assigned to upcoming ISS expedition missions as well as swabs collected from prototype suits intended for use on the Orion spacecraft. These tests were intended to characterize the types of contaminants found on flight suits under current, typical handling conditions. No attempt was made to change suit handling procedures, provide additional sterilization, or to limit typical potential contaminant sources. Using culture based techniques, we cultivated 235 CFU (colony forming units) comprised of 26 bacterial species and one fungal species on the outside of the suits. The fungal species and 14 of the bacterial species were unique to the suit surfaces and were not detected in any of the background samples collected within the chambers. We sequenced 755,434 ribosomal fragments on all of the suit surfaces from swab samples. 557,016 of these sequences represent DNA that survived at least 4 hours at vacuum. These sequences formed 2,464 OTU's (Operational Taxonomic Units, 97% similarity) showing low diversity in the samples. The most abundant sequences that survived vacuum belong to the genera Staphyloccocus, Ralstona, Bacillus and Rhodobacter all of which are common to the human microbiome. [5] See Danko et al., (2021) for more complete details of these first analyses. Further analysis of EVA suit materials with respect to the efficacy of various cleaning protocols and engineered containment solutions is planned to inform suit design for NASA’s Artemis Moon to Mars program crew testing. Swab Tool Function Results: The kit was demonstrated for fit and function in suited subject vacuum tests to determine how well the tool worked as an aseptic microbial sampling device as well as to identify any design elements that could be upgraded for EVA task specific improvement. It was found that sample acquisition efficacy could be enhanced by redesign of the sample canister to end-effector interface. Several modifications of the sample caddy assemblies to optimize EVA safety and functionality were also identified. Consequently, fabrication of the redesigned sample canister to end-effector assembly interfaces and and the sample caddy assemblies are required. Fabrication of sixteen flight sample canister assemblies (8 per each of two EVA Swab Kits) and two sample caddy assemblies are in process to be followed by hardware testing and certification to produce two flight-certified EVA Swab Kits for transport to ISS no earlier than summer of 2022. Sampling Strategy: The International Space Station is an ideal testbed for systematic studies of contamination from crewed vehicles since it has been continuously occupied for 20 years and exposed to non-terrestrial conditions. We will sample the exterior of the ISS during EVA using a purpose-built swab tool capable of maintaining sterility while undergoing temperature changes from -151 to +121°C under hard vacuum. Prior to each EVA, the project team will work with ISS mission managers to identify precise sampling locations, which will vary by EVA based on the translation paths and worksites scheduled for that particular EVA. Ideally, translation path handrails and areas near ECLSS (Environmental Control and Life Support System) external vent openings on a spacecraft would be assessed. There are currently more than a dozen ECLSS external vents on the ISS. Some are connected to systems that vent waste products, while others are intended to equalize cabin pressure. As EVA opportunity allows, microbial samples from any of these external vents would provide a valuable data point, though some will be more useful than others. Four criteria have been identified to help prioritize sampling sites near vents: • EVA Accessibility: To minimize cost, it is desired to piggy-back onto a planned EVA. Therefore, the sampling location must be readily accessible by an EVA crew • Type of Vented Products: Vent products that have been in direct contact with crew, such as cabin air, are more likely to contain microorganisms than vent products associated with isolated systems, such as experiment module combustion products. • Mass of Vented Products: Higher-flow vents are more likely to contain detectible levels of microbial contaminants than lower-flow vents. • Local Environment: Sample locations with relatively benign local conditions, such as warm surfaces shielded from direct ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure, may be more likely to support microbial growth than locations with harsher local environmental conditions. Because EVA accessibility is the most important criteria, the proposal team worked with an astronaut and flight controllers using the Dynamic Onboard Ubiquitous Graphics (DOUG) tool. The DOUG virtual environment allows an operator to “fly” around the current ISS vehicle configuration to assess EVA translation paths, attach points, and keep-out zones. While analysis on station or rapid return to Earth would be preferable, samples collected from the exterior of the ISS have already been exposed to temperature variations between -157 and +121 °C as well as hard vacuum. Therefore, they should be fairly stable and robust. We hypothesize that samples collected from the ISS exterior could be stored for up to 6 months at -80°C without degradation. Sample canisters will be returned to Earth while frozen at -80°C for analysis, and sterilized canisters can be re-flown back to ISS to support additional sampling opportunities Relevance to NASA Exploration Objectives: These data will allow us to identify new or improved methods, technologies, and procedures for spacecraft sterilization and leakage mitigation to minimize the amount of contamination introduced to the environment by human explorers. This work is funded by NASA research grant: NNH18ZDA001N-PPR References: [1] Bell, M.S. et al. (2015) LPS XLVI, Abst. #1832 [2] Rucker et al. (2018) 42nd COSPAR (PPP.3) [3] Bell, M.S. et al. (2019) Mars Extant Life Conference, Abst. #5096.[4] Bell, M.S. et al., (2020) 43rd COSPAR (BO.2).[5] Danko D, et.al.,(2021)Front.Microbiol.12:608478.

Mary Suzanne Bell↗

Evaluation of Joint Cyber/Safety Risk in Nuclear Power Systems

This report presents an analysis of the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) for a generic Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)-4 NPP. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed Hazards and Consequences Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS) process is applied to the ECCS and its subsystems to identify unsafe control actions (UCAs) which act as possible cyber events of concern. The analysis is performed for two design basis events: Small-break Loss of Coolant Accident (SLOCA) and general transients (TRANS), such as unintended reactor trip. In previous work, HAZCADS UCAs were combined with other cyber-attack analysis to develop a risk-informed approach; however, this was for a single system. This report explores advanced systems engineering modeling approaches to model the interactions between digital assets across multiple systems which may be targeted by cyber adversaries. The complex and interdependent design of digital systems has the potential to introduce emergent cyber properties that are generally not covered by hazard analyses nor formal nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The R&D and supporting analysis presented here explores approaches to predict and manage how interdependent system properties effect risk. To show the potential impact of a successful cyber-attack to formal PRA event tree probabilities, HAZCADS analysis was also used. HAZCADS was also used to model the automatic depressurization system (ADS) automatic actuation. This analysis extended to an integrated system analysis for common-cause failure (CCF). In this aspect, the HAZCADS analysis continued by analyzing plant design details for system connectivity in support of critical plant functions. A dependency matrix was developed to depict the integrated functionality of the interconnected systems. Areas of potential CCF are indicated. Future work could include adversary attack development to show how CCF could be caused, resulting in PRA events. Across the multiple systems that comprise the ECCS, the analysis shows that the change in such probabilities was very different between systems. This indicates that some systems have a larger potential risk impact from successful cyber-attack or digital failure, which indicates a need for these systems to have a higher priority for design and defensive measures. Furthermore, we were able to establish that a risk analysis using any arbitrary threat model establishes an ordering of components with regard to cyber-risk. This ordering can be used to influence the overall system design with an eye to lowering risk, or as a way to understand real-time risk to operational systems based on a current threat landscape. Expert knowledge of both the analysis process and the system being analyzed is required to perform a HAZCADS analysis. The need for a tiered risk analysis is demonstrated by the results of this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Results of Liquid Motion Experiment Analyzed

About half of all scientific and commercial spacecraft spin during some part of their mission. Although spinning has many benefits (increasing stability, controlling the location of liquid propellants, and distributing solar heat loads), it also creates problems because a precession (or wobble) motion is unavoidable. For modern spacecraft, by far the largest source of wobble is energy dissipation in the liquid of partially filled tanks. The liquid s energy dissipation cannot, however, be quantified adequately by any ground test. Current analytical models are also inadequate because fundamental data on fluid motion in low gravity are needed to validate them. Consequently, spacecraft attitude-control systems are designed and operated very conservatively. Nonetheless, spacecraft often still perform poorly in orbit, and some have been lost because of a rapid increase of the wobble rate. The Liquid Motion Experiment (LME) was designed to provide spacecraft designers accurate data on the wobble dynamics of spacecraft that contain large quantities of mobile liquids. LME, which was flown on the space shuttle mission STS-84, was built under contract to the NASA Lewis Research Center by the Southwest Research Institute of San Antonio, Texas. Major accomplishments for 1998 include reduction of the flight data and publication of the experimental results. LME was essentially a spin table that created a realistic nutation motion of scale-model tanks containing liquid. Two spherical and two cylindrical transparent tanks were tested simultaneously, and three sets of such tanks were employed to vary liquid viscosity, fill level, and propellant management device (PMD) design. All the tanks were approximately 4.5 in. in diameter. The primary test measurements were the radial and tangential torques exerted on the tanks by the liquid. These torques could not be measured on the ground because of the masking effects of gravity.

Chato, David J.↗

Plant-microbe interactions: from genes to ecosystems using Populus as a model system

Plant-microbe symbioses span a continuum from pathogenic to mutualistic with functional consequences for both organisms in the symbiosis. In order to increase sustainable food and fuel production in the future, it is imperative that we harness these symbioses. The tree genus Populus is an excellent model system for studies examining plant-microbe interactions due to the wealth of genomic information available and the molecular tools that have been developed to manipulate Populus-microbe symbioses. In this review, we highlight how Populus can serve as a model system to explore plant-microbe interactions. Specifically, highlighting research linking Populus-microbe interactions from the gene to the ecosystem level. We explore why Populus is an excellent model for perennial plant systems, the molecular underpinnings of Populus-microbe interactions, how host genetics influence microbial community composition, and how microbial communities vary at fine spatial scales and between Populus species. Further, we explore how the patterns of the microbiome may affect ecosystem level functions in managed and natural ecosystems. Understanding and manipulating these interactions in Populus has the potential to improve plant health and impact ecosystem sustainability and processes as Populus trees function as foundational species in many natural ecosystems and are also deployed in managed ecosystems for various agroforestry applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Water cycles in closed ecological systems: effects of atmospheric pressure

In bioregenerative life support systems that use plants to generate food and oxygen, the largest mass flux between the plants and their surrounding environment will be water. This water cycle is a consequence of the continuous change of state (evaporation-condensation) from liquid to gas through the process of transpiration and the need to transfer heat (cool) and dehumidify the plant growth chamber. Evapotranspiration rates for full plant canopies can range from ~1 to 10 L m-2 d-1 (~1 to 10 mm m-2 d-1), with the rates depending primarily on the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) between the leaves and the air inside the plant growth chamber. VPD in turn is dependent on the air temperature, leaf temperature, and current value of relative humidity (RH). Concepts for developing closed plant growth systems, such as greenhouses for Mars, have been discussed for many years and the feasibility of such systems will depend on the overall system costs and reliability. One approach for reducing system costs would be to reduce the operating pressure within the greenhouse to reduce structural mass and gas leakage. But managing plant growth environments at low pressures (e.g., controlling humidity and heat exchange) may be difficult, and the effects of low-pressure environments on plant growth and system water cycling need further study. We present experimental evidence to show that water saturation pressures in air under isothermal conditions are only slightly affected by total pressure, but the overall water flux from evaporating surfaces can increase as pressure decreases. Mathematical models describing these observations are presented, along with discussion of the importance for considering "water cycles" in closed bioregenerative life support systems.

NASA Center KSC↗

Waste Control Specialists Technical Review Team Report

1. Modeling of Drum 68660 and the WCS Drums: A calibrated model of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Drum 68660 indicates that pressurization of the drum by restriction of drum venting could have led to the thermal runaway reaction at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in 2014, supporting the hypothesis that the contents of the drum were not fundamentally different from the overall remediated nitrate salt (RNS) waste stream. 2. Nitric Acid Reactions and Aging of the Waste: The stability of the WCS RNS waste with respect to autocatalytic thermal runaway due to nitric acid chemistry should increase over time as the nitric acid is depleted from chemical reactions in the drum. However, this cannot be confirmed because of the lack of long-term experimental data on the impact of aging on the reactivity of RNS waste. The calibrated model indicates that the waste drums retain most of their reactive components, metal nitrate salts and sWheat Scoop ® , even after eight years. 3. Pressure Effects and Runaway Reactions: The calibrated model indicates that if the drums and standard waste boxes (SWBs) are not allowed to pressurize during transport or storage and they are stored at historical WIPP repository temperatures, then an autocatalytic thermal runaway event is not expected to occur. Since the cause of Drum 68660 pressurization is not known, decision makers are not able to tailor mitigating strategies to the initiating event. Consequently, mitigating strategies must consider all feasible internal and external events that could lead to the pressurization of the drums. 4. Temperature Effects and Runaway Reactions: Temperature also has a strong influence on the stability of the waste. The calibrated model indicates that cooling the drums or SWBs can reduce the possibility of autocatalytic thermal runaway reactions. Simulations suggest that for a drum with a plugged vent, the probability of thermal runaway may be reduced or eliminated if wastes are maintained at or below 43 °F through active cooling measures from the initiation of transport until emplacement at WIPP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The X-43 Fin Actuation System Problem - Reliability in Shades of Gray

Following the loss of the first X-43 during launch, the mishap investigation board indicated the Fin Actuator System (FAS) needed to have a larger torque margin. To supply this added torque, a second actuator was added. The consequences of what seemed to be a simple modification would trouble the X-43 program. Because of the second actuator, a new computer board was required. This proved to be subject to electronic noise. This resulted in the actuator latch up in ground tests of the FAS for the second launch. Such a latch up would cause the Pegasus booster to fail, as the FAS was a single string system. The problem was corrected and the second flight was successful. The same modifications were added to the FAS for flight three. When the FAS underwent ground tests, it also latched up. The failure indicated that each computer board had a different tolerance to electronic noise. The problem with the FAS was corrected. Subsequently, another failure occurred, raising questions about the design, and the probability of failure for the X-43 Mach 10 flight. This was not simply a technical issue, but illuminated the difficulties facing both managers and engineers in assessing risk, design requirements, and probabilities in cutting edge aerospace projects.

Peebles, Curtis↗

Application of Cyber-Informed Engineering for Protecting BESS

This white paper synthesizes an array of crucial grid services provided by BESS technology, assesses its architecture and communications, and presents a case study for analysis against the principles introduced by Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). Furthermore, in walking through the analysis, this paper presents a framework to evaluate risks and solutions when considering BESS components. Asset owners and buyers could perform this analysis to assess their BESS product implementations, alternative inverter-based resources (IBR), and energy management systems (EMS). Battery systems fulfill various roles contingent on the unique market demands and the specific challenges presented by regional grid infrastructures. These roles also vary due to the differing utility models for ownership and operation, which are adapted to meet regional and local capabilities and requirements. Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for adversaries to exploit knowledge of battery operational patterns to orchestrate decisive attacks. However, the security of operational data for these systems may not be the primary vulnerability, as much of this information is already well-understood within the community. Applying a modest degree of subject matter expertise can often yield valuable predictions regarding how a battery will respond under certain conditions, such as grid emergencies, high or low-temperature days, Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events, and outages. The operational characteristics of batteries are well-documented, and their capabilities, including the risks associated with misoperation and the resulting consequences, are published and understood within the industry. CIE practices represent the next step in gaining functional assurance and providing an acceptable level of risk, regardless of whether a battery vendor can support a trusted and validated supply chain. While this issue has exacerbated supply chain challenges, it is not an isolated condition. This foreign supply route is the primary source of BESS for the U.S. market. Significant efforts are underway through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) to change that. Still, strategic short-term operational mitigations are needed to ensure the security of our operational technology (OT) systems, which are enhanced by instilling trust and are separate from vendors implementing CIE principles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Design and Performance of lithium-Ion Batteries for Achieving Electric Vehicle Takeoff, Flight, and Landing

Today, the burgeoning drive towards global urbanization with over half the earth’s population living in cities, has created major challenges with regards to intracity and intercity transit and mobility. This problem is compounded due to the fact that almost always urbanization and increase in standard of living drives individual automobile ownerships. Over 95% of automobiles are presently powered by some form of fossil fuel and as an unintended consequence, urban centers have also been centers for peak greenhouse gas emissions, a major contributor to global climate change. A revolutionary solution to this conundrum is flight capable electric automobiles or electric aerial vehicles that can tackle both urban mobility and climate change challenges. For such advanced electric platforms, energy storage and delivery component is the vital component towards achieving takeoff, flight, cruise, and landing. The requirements and duty cycle demands on the energy storage system is drastically different when compared to the performance metrics required for terrestrial electric vehicles. As the widely deployed lithium ion-based battery systems are often the primary go-to energy storage choice in electric vehicle related applications, it is imperative that performance metrics and specifications for such batteries towards areal electric vehicles need to be established. In this nascent field, there exists ample opportunities for battery material innovations, understanding degradation mechanism, battery design, development and deployment of battery control and management systems. Thus, this chapter comprehensively discusses battery requirements and identifies battery material chemistries suitable for handling aerial electric automobile duty cycles. The chapter also discusses the battery cell-level metrics pertaining to electrochemical, chemical, mechanical, and structural parameters. Furthermore, specific models for battery degradation, state of health (SOH), capacity and models for full cell performance and degradation are also discussed here. Finally, the chapter also discusses battery safety and future directions of batteries that would power these next generation urban electric aircrafts.

Amin, Ruhul↗

Impact of Thermochromic Coatings on Thermal Management for Human Spacecraft Applications

Thermochromic variable emittance coatings (VECs) allow for passive, dynamic thermal management of space vehicles due to their temperature dependent optical properties. Ideally, a thermochromic material should exhibit low mid-IR emissivity for lower temperatures and switch to high mid-IR emissivity for higher temperatures; one promising material that demonstrates these characteristics is Lanthanum Strontium Manganite (LSM). The transition temperatures of LSM are dependent on the Lanthanum-to-Strontium ratio x, La1-xSrxMnO3. La0.8Sr0.2MnO3, which has an emittance of 0.5 for < 270 K, then a linear increase in emittance to 0.8 over an increase of 70 K where it will saturate at ~340K, is commonly utilized but this is tunable by changing the Sr concentration. The tunability of the transition temperature range of LSM motivates a need to understand the optimal thermal transition range for human spacecraft. Additionally, LSM has high solar absorptance and to combat this issue the VEC will be micropatterned on top of a highly solar reflective layer of Barium Sulfate (BaSO4). Consequently, this work will elucidate the tradeoffs between solar absorptance and variable emittance for this technology since the micropattern adversely couples the solar absorptance to the mid-IR emittance. This work develops a computational model using Thermal Desktop to study the utility of VECs on human spacecraft, such as Orion, subjected to mission phases such as lunar transit and Gateway docking. The model considers both external heat loads, from solar irradiation and planetary IR, as well as vehicle heat loads, from avionics and crew, as an input into the body mounted thermochromic radiators. There are several design targets for VECs, i.e. achieving the largest change in emittance, finding the optimal temperature range for the transition, and achieving the highest emittance in the high temperature phase. This work prioritizes these design targets for LSM to achieve the optimal heat rejection for a human spacecraft. The VECs are compared with static emittance coatings and the efficiency gains are quantified. Thermochromic VECs will ultimately lead to simplifications of active cooling systems which synergistically correlates to mass reduction and less energy consumption for space vehicles.

Joseph Peoples↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-NC2 NC_Loblolly Plantation

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NC2 NC_Loblolly Plantation. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NC2 NC_Loblolly Plantation produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The North Carolina Loblolly Pine site is located in a pine plantation amongst the mixed forests of the North Carolina lower coastal plain. During the late 19th and early 20th centuries the region was logged extensively. After a series of clearcuts, the land was transformed for agricultural practices. In 1967 and 1969, 4000 ha was sold to the Weyerhauser company for agriculture, preservation, and commercial logging of loblolly pines in a series of plantations. The fifth rotation stand surrounding the tower was established in 1992. The only significant natural disturbances during the measurement period was a severe drought that spanned the entire duration of the 2007 growing season. Consequently, the 2007 total amount of precipitation was 486 mm below the 30-year norm. In the same year, the plantation was thinned and fertilized. The stand was thinned in Oct 2009. The eastern half of the site was fertilized in January 2011, and the entire site was fertilized in October 2012.

Noormets, Asko [Texas A&M University]↗

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss

Documenting the rate, magnitude and causes of snow loss is essential to benchmark the pace of climate change and to manage the differential water security risks of snowpack declines. So far, however, observational uncertainties in snow mass have made the detection and attribution of human-forced snow losses elusive, undermining societal preparedness. Here we show that human-caused warming has caused declines in Northern Hemisphere-scale March snowpack over the 1981–2020 period. Using an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions, we identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, 31 of which we can confidently attribute to human influence. Most crucially, we show a generalizable and highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity of snowpack, in which snow becomes marginally more sensitive to one degree Celsius of warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and augurs much sharper declines and water security risks in the most populous basins. Together, our results emphasize that human-forced snow losses and their water consequences are attributable—even absent their clear detection in individual snow products—and will accelerate and homogenize with near-term warming, posing risks to water resources in the absence of substantial climate mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation Training Versus Real Time Console Training for New Flight Controllers

For new flight controllers, the two main learning tools are simulations and real time console performance training. These benefit the new flight controllers in different ways and could possibly be improved. Simulations: a) Allow for mistakes without serious consequences. b) Lets new flight controllers learn the working style of other new flight controllers. c) Lets new flight controllers eventually begin to feel like they have mastered the sim world, so therefore they must be competent in the real time world too. Real time: a) Shows new flight controllers some of the unique problems that develop and have to be accounted for when dealing with certain payloads or systems. b) Lets new flight controllers experience handovers - gathering information from the previous shift on what the room needs to be aware of and what still needs to be done. c) Gives new flight controllers confidence that they can succeed in the position they are training for when they can solve real anomalies. How Sims could be improved and more like real-time ops for the ISS Operations Controller position: a) Operations Change Requests to review. b) Fewer anomalies (but still more than real time for practice). c) Payload Planning Manager Handover sheet for the E-1 and E-3 reviews. d) Flight note in system with at least one comment to verify for the E-1 and E-3 reviews How the real time console performance training could be improved for the ISS Operations Controller position: a) Schedule the new flight controller to be on console for four days but with a different certified person each day. This will force them to be the source of knowledge about every OCR in progress, everything that has happened in those few days, and every activity on the timeline. Constellation program flight controllers will have to learn entirely from simulations, thereby losing some of the elements that they will need to have experience with for real time ops. It may help them to practice real time console performance training in the International Space Station or Space Shuttle to gather some general anomaly resolution and day-to-day task management skills.

Heaton, Amanda↗

Sanitary Waste Landfill Effects on an Invasive Wild Pig Population

Being opportunistic omnivores, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) readily feed on edible garbage. Given the presence of substantial volumes of edible food waste, large multi-county and regional municipal sanitary waste landfills constitute attractive forage resources for pigs, providing a year-round anthropogenic source of potentially high-quality forage. Our objective was to assess the effects that a large regional landfill has on the local pigs foraging in that facility's waste disposal cells. The landfill, located on the United States Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina, USA, became operational in 1998 and pigs began foraging there in 2001. By 2009 >100 pigs/night were observed foraging in the landfill, suggesting landfill establishment may have important consequences for population dynamics, public safety, and disease transmission. We evaluated changes in body mass, fetal litter size, numbers of pigs removed, and wild pig-vehicle collisions (WPVCs) before (1980–2000) and after (2001–2019) pigs began foraging in the landfill on SRS. Body mass during the after period increased to a greater extent for pigs in the vicinity of the landfill compared to pigs on the rest of SRS. Fetal litter size increased for pigs in the vicinity of the landfill, whereas it remained unchanged on the rest of SRS. Our density surrogate (number of pigs harvested) increased around the landfill during the after period by 2.9 times, whereas on the rest of the site it only increased by 53%. No WPVCs occurred adjacent to the landfill before 2001, but WPVCs increased along the 2 major roads bordering the landfill after 2001. Effects of sanitary waste landfills on wild pig populations scavenging there can present unique challenges to population management, control, public safety, and disease transmission. Potential approaches to address these challenges could be exclusion fencing to prevent access to the landfill's waste disposal cells or enhanced placement of waste cell covers to reduce access.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗