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DOE OSTI2025

SAXS Assistant: Automated SAXS analysis for structural discovery in biologics and polymeric nanoparticles

Small-angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful technique for assessing macromolecular structure. High-throughput SAXS is limited by the time-consuming and, at times, subjective nature of SAXS data interpretation. Here, we present SAXS Assistant, a Python-based script that streamlines SAXS data analysis to extract features for machine learning (ML) and key structural parameters, including the Guinier radius of gyration (R g ), pair distance distribution function (PDDF)-derived R g , maximum particle dimension (D max ), and Kratky plots. The script builds upon BioXTAS RAW and validates reliability via Guinier/PDDF R g agreement, an important indicator of well-measured data sets. For assistance in D max estimation, a multilayer perceptron regressor was trained with 1940 data files from the Small Angle Scattering Biological Data Bank. The model achieved a test set performance R 2 = 0.90 and mean absolute error = 11.7 Å. Training exclusively with experimental data translates analyses from researchers, including experts in the field, to the ML model, which helps assess D max estimations from PDDF. Gaussian mixture model clustering was implemented to classify profiles into structural classes based on entries in the Small Angle Scattering Biological Data Bank. Users may therefore assess the similarity between experimental samples and known biomolecular shapes within the mapped repository entries. This probabilistic clustering aids in quantifying information from Kratky and generating shape-descriptive features. SAXS Assistant accelerates SAXS data analysis through enforced quality control, ML-ready outputs, and flags for low-confidence results. In addition to providing the ability to analyze large data sets at high throughput, this tool is versatile and may serve researchers in both biological and synthetic polymer research fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive behavior and different thermal experiences of real people: A Bayesian neural network approach to thermal preference prediction and classification

Various observed and unquantifiable factors affect the thermal comfort of occupants in indoor environments and can lead to high uncertainty in the prediction and classification of their thermal preferences. The behavioral adaptation of occupants, by operating window systems for example, changes their thermal experience and expectations and therefore contributes to even higher prediction uncertainty. In this study, we applied a Bayesian neural network (BNN) algorithm to build a predictive model for occupant thermal preference using the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II. The Bayesian method allows us to synthesize prior knowledge and available measurements into a unified modeling framework. It also offers a way to express and quantify uncertainty. Here we have performed a systematic study to test the efficiency and robustness of different BNN model configurations. In this study, the results show that the BNN model outperforms conventional thermal comfort models such as Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and adaptive comfort model. The BNN model tends to produce more confident “prefer cooler” predictions with high possibility and low uncertainty. In contrast, the BNN model produces less certain predictions for “prefer no change” and “prefer warmer” across all occupants. Our findings suggest that linking occupants’ subjective evaluation measures and window opening/closing behavior to thermal comfort modeling effectively improves predictive performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Entropy-based feature selection for capturing impacts in Earth system models with abrupt forcing

This paper presents the development of a new entropy-based feature selection method for identifying and quantifying impacts. Here, impacts are defined as statistically significant differences in spatio-temporal fields when comparing datasets with and without an external forcing in an Earth system model. Temporal feature selection is performed by first computing the cross-fuzzy entropy to quantify similarity of patterns between two datasets and then applying changepoint detection to identify regions of statistically constant entropy. The method is used to capture temperate north surface cooling from a 9-member simulation ensemble of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption, which injected 10 Tg of SO 2 into the stratosphere. The results estimate a mean difference decrease in near surface air temperature of -0.560 K with a 99% confidence interval between -0.864 K and -0.257 K between April and November of 1992, one year following the eruption. A sensitivity analysis with decreasing SO 2 injection revealed that the impact is statistically significant at 5 Tg but not at 3 Tg. Using identified features, a dependency graph model based on a 9-day lag had significantly fewer nodes than a graph based on monthly means. Furthermore, this demonstrates our method’s ability to perform dimension reduction while still uncovering source-to-impact pathways.

Changepoint detection↗

DOE OSTI2020

Raspberry colloid-templated approach for the synthesis of palladium-based oxidation catalysts with enhanced hydrothermal stability and low-temperature activity

It is becoming increasingly urgent to develop and utilize novel, more efficient and stable materials for mobile and stationary emission control applications as the deleterious consequences of anthropogenic air pollution are becoming more evident and pressing. Tightening regulations, particularly related to automotive exhaust treatment, together with continued improvements in engine design, that result in lowering the engine operating temperatures and inadvertently lead to the release of an overwhelming proportion of pollutants during the cold start, present new challenges for materials design, specifically for oxidation catalysts. In particular, improvements in the low-temperature activity while maintaining catalyst stability at high temperatures are required from the next-generation catalyst. Typical catalysts for removal of pollutants from automotive exhaust streams incorporate platinum group metals (PGMs). They tend to be inefficient at low temperatures (below 250 °C), thus accounting for the cold start problem, yet sinter and lose their activity at high temperatures that are frequently encountered during catalyst operation. High PGM loadings are often employed to compensate for catalyst inefficiencies and fast degradation, ultimately resulting in high-cost catalytic converters. Here, we have developed a new approach for the design and formation of catalytic materials that allows for both significantly more efficient PGM incorporation and improved overall catalyst performance at reduced PGM loadings. The method provides control over the composition and geometry of the support through self-assembly of sacrificial composite template — “raspberry” polymeric colloids decorated with catalytic particles — accompanied by infiltration with metal-oxide precursor and subsequent removal of the colloids. This method simultaneously structures the porous network and organizes the catalytic particles within it. Uniquely, the resulting catalytic particles are partially embedded in the support matrix and partially exposed to the pore interior, producing catalytic sites that are both stable and accessible. Herein, the feasibility of this novel and versatile approach for automotive catalytic conversion is demonstrated: the studies include testing alumina-based raspberry-colloid-templated (RCT) catalysts containing Pd nanoparticles (RCT Pd/Al2O3) for oxidation of propane and carbon monoxide under simulated diesel exhaust conditions and hydrothermal aging at 800 °C for 50 h in the simulated stream. The RCT Pd/Al2O3 catalysts exhibit exceptional activity toward CO oxidation, reduced reaction onset temperature, and high stability to elevated temperatures (demonstrated through prolonged exposure to temperatures up to 950 °C) and reactive gas streams, without migration, sintering or loss of the precious metal NPs. Notably, the novel catalyst shows the same or slightly better performance than the commercial catalysts even when the PGM load is reduced by ~80 % compared to the commercial counterparts. These results provide confidence for the utilization of the RCT approach for the fabrication of robust nanostructured catalysts for next-generation, energy-efficient catalytic converters with improved performance at low and high temperatures and reduced costs. The RCT methodology is, in addition, highly generalizable, and can thus be applied for the design of a wide range of catalytic systems in the automotive sector and beyond.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Use of Fisher's Ratio assisted multivariate curve resolution- alternating least squares for discovery-based analysis using ultrahigh pressure liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry

Non-targeted analysis of complex chemical mixtures can be difficult considering the convoluted nature of the matrix and the potential unknown chemical differences between samples or classes of samples. Ultrahigh pressure liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UHPLC-QTOF) is an ideal technique to probe chemical differences for a wide variety of samples. While UHPLC-QTOF can discover minute chemical differences down to low part per billion (ppb) concentrations with a high degree of confidence, the application of high-resolution mass spectrometry can yield massive amounts of information (∼ 10 gb per sample) that cannot be analyzed manually. Therefore, the application of chemometric techniques is mandatory for the interrogation of complex samples. Fisher's ratio (FR) assisted multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (MCR-ALS) was used to the discover and identify the chemical differences between two classes of materials: 1) a pond water matrix and 2) the matrix spiked with a pharmaceutical standard mix containing 17 compounds. Thirteen of the seventeen spiked compounds were discovered using FR analysis, and then five were successfully deconvoluted using MCR-ALS wherein the number of curves chosen were automatically determined using singular value decomposition (SVD). In conclusion, the use of an automated FR assisted MCR-ALS will aid in discovering trace levels of chemical components without the need for the researcher to provide potentially biased input which will aid in non-targeted workflow.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Metabolic flux analysis reaching genome wide coverage: lessons learned and future perspectives

13 C-MFA is currently the only technique capable of elucidating intracellular metabolic fluxes. Generally, in 13 C-MFA studies the reactions that can carry flux are mostly pre-specified by only considering canonical pathways and ignoring alternate ones. This may bias flux elucidation and cause labeling data to erroneously confirm implied assumptions. Here, by expanding the scope of the metabolic mapping models to match known genome-scale metabolism such estimation biases can be eliminated. However, this model expansion to genome-scale requires the construction of expanded atom mapping models, more efficient flux estimation algorithms, and formal estimation of confidence levels. Even though significant progress has been made in this direction, a number of challenges remain before widespread adoption by the community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Group additivity values for the heat of formation of C 2 –C 8 alkanes, alkyl hydroperoxides, and their radicals

A set of 58 group additivity values (GAV) for the calculation of the heat of formation is derived from an extensive and accurate database of 192 ab initio heats of formation. The ab initio values are from companion calculations at the CCSD(T)–F12/cc-pVTZ-F12//B2PLYPD3/cc-pVTZ level of theory employing second order connectivity based hierarchy reference reactions with ANL energies for the reference species. This database of 192 species consists of alkanes (RH), alkyl radicals ($\dot{\text {R}}$), alkyl hydroperoxides (RO 2 H), alkyl-peroxy (R$\dot{\text {O}}$ 2 ) radicals, and hydroperoxy-alkyl ($\dot{\text {Q}}$OOH) radicals of all of the isomers of C 2 –C 5 alkane fuels and a select set of C 6 –C 8 isomers. The GAV and ab initio based enthalpies for this dataset show excellent agreement, with an estimated 2σ uncertainty of 0.9 kcal mol –1 . Among the 58 GAV terms, 40 are refinements of previously reported terms, while 18 are newly developed. These new GAV terms are mainly non-next-nearest neighbor interactions (NNI) and β-corrections. The inclusion of these new groups significantly improves the accuracy of the GAV estimates of the heats of formation. Finally, the updated GAVs can be used with increased confidence to estimate the heats of formation of combustion relevant hydrocarbons and oxygenated hydrocarbons and their corresponding radicals, which are important in predicting low-temperature chemistry and are critical in the development of accurate chemical kinetic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep-freeze graph training for latent learning

Scientific and engineering advances are primarily driven by multi-tier conceptual constructs and conditional theoretical frameworks. The theories allow predictions of hypothetical system responses, given a set of approximate conditions (ranges of applicability) imposed on latent parameters that cannot be measured directly. Learning to estimate the latent variables (Latent Learning) helps to pinpoint the anticipated range-edge anomalies and improves the confidence in interpretation, interpolation and extrapolation of limited experimental data. Due to high dimensionality and extreme non-linearity of the materials science problems, very large datasets are typically required for conventional data-driven model development. The vital experimental data collection, particularly on microstructural phases, is very challenging, which makes it difficult to compile a high-quality database. Incorporation of the domain knowledge into the computational graph structure, initialization and optimization processes presents a viable mechanism for developing accurate models, with limited datasets. Furthermore, this study successfully utilized the approach to build the Deep Freeze Graph (DeepFreG) by mapping known causality relationships and by digitizing empirical domain knowledge for Latent Learning (LL), with specific applications in materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational studies of impurity migration during induction stirring of molten uranium

Understanding and controlling impurity behavior in actinide metal casting processes are foundational for efficient part production yet remain major challenges for researchers and industry. To help provide insight regarding impurity distribution during actinide metal casting, we have developed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for a laboratory-scale system using commercial and open-source code. Multiple simulation frameworks allow for improved confidence in the resulting outputs, while taking advantage of the maturity and convenience offered by commercial platforms and simultaneously maintaining the transparency and flexibility often provided by open-source software. Here, we describe multiple experiment-informed models designed to simulate a specific laboratory system in which uranium melt, containing a known starting concentration of carbon impurity, is electromagnetically stirred in an induction furnace. Here, the goal of the simulations is to predict the motion of uranium carbide microparticles in the velocity field of the melt. Prior to simulating the uranium-carbon system, numerical models were validated using a previously published nonradioactive experimental system. Effects of the size and shape of impurity particles in the models were investigated and agree with experimental findings. Simulation of smaller particles (< 50 µm) shows more homogenous distribution throughout the stirred melt. With increased particle size (100 µm), the body forces, which include the buoyancy force, dominate over the drag force, causing larger particles to move toward the crucible walls and upward in the system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of process simulation workflow for thermosetting prepreg platelet molding compounds

Continuous carbon fiber prepreg slit and cut into rectangular platelets has proven to be a useful material for net shape molding of semi-structural and structural components in the aerospace and automotive industries. Furthermore, to assist the designer in use of these prepreg platelet molding compounds, sometimes called carbon fiber sheet molding compounds, simulation tools are required that can predict the as-manufactured fiber orientation state which has a significant impact on the resulting performance. Herein, an analysis workflow for design-enabling predictions is demonstrated for a double dome geometry with two different initial charge configurations. Here, the workflow is validated through comparison with experimental short shots, orientation state, and stiffness trends. Significantly, to complete the validation, a method is proposed for determining the confidence bounds on measured orientation state enhancing the results of optical microscopy which can only produce a small sample of platelet orientations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic isotope effects for dissociative recombination of tritiated ketenyl ion ( 3 HCCO + ): A surface-hopping ab initio molecular dynamics study

Dissociative recombination (DR) reactions are important when modeling charged species in the presence of free electrons. While experimental measurements of DR reaction rates are challenging, surface hopping ab initio molecular dynamics (SH-AIMD) simulations provide an attractive alternative. SH-AIMD is especially well-suited for estimating branching ratios, i.e., the relative rates of competing production channels, for DR reactions. Although the radiolysis of diatomic tritium has been studied experimentally, previous attempts to model these systems have failed to account for isotope effects in DR reactions. Previous SH-AIMD studies have also not investigated tritium isotope effects for the branching ratios of DR reactions. In this study, we compute the DR branching ratios of the protiated and tritiated ketenyl ion. Comparison with literature values for the protiated branching ratios provides confidence in the reliability of our SH-AIMD results. Our simulations predict a significant increase of the HC + CO branching ratio for the tritiated system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validating corrosion models: Influence of physical properties

In chloride containing environments, two metals in physical contact can undergo galvanic corrosion limiting the lifetime of components. Being able to accurately predict galvanic corrosion damage distributions over time has not been widely presented in literature. Therefore, Finite Element Method (FEM) corrosion models were experimentally validated for two galvanic couples as a function of governing equations, environment, anode material, anode:cathode ratio, and time. Carbon steel/stainless steel (CS/SS) and zinc/stainless steel (Zn/SS) galvanic couples were exposed to NaCl solutions at room temperatures for up to 14 days. For the galvanic couples and environments, the Laplace equation with variable conductivity and reactions was sufficient to model the experimental corrosion damage. Increasing the chloride concentration for the CS/SS galvanic couple, regardless of the anode:cathode ratio, decreased the observed and modeled corrosion damage. Decreasing the anode:cathode ratio (i.e., increasing the cathode length), increased the experimentally observed and modeled corrosion damage. For small anode:cathode ratios, the governing equations deviate over long time periods with the Nernst-Plank equation being conservative. For the Zn/SS galvanic couple, the cathode length controls the dominant cathodic reduction reaction. For small cathode lengths, the hydrogen evolution reaction is dominant. For larger cathode lengths, the oxygen reduction reaction is dominant. The results are discussed with regard to the influence of solution chemistry, ohmic drop, and governing reactions. Overall, validated FEM models were presented, and the resultant models, physics, and mechanisms can be applied to other corrosion scenarios with confidence.

Carbon steel↗

DOE OSTI2022

$\mathrm{D}$ark$\mathrm{F}$lux: A new tool to analyze indirect-detection spectra of next-generation dark matter models

Here we present DarkFlux, a software tool designed to analyze indirect-detection signatures for next-generation models of dark matter (DM) with multiple annihilation channels. Version 1.0 of this tool accepts user-generated models with 2→2 tree-level dark matter annihilation to pairs of Standard Model (SM) particles and analyzes DM annihilation to γ rays. The tool consists of three modules, which can be run in a loop in order to scan over DM mass if desired: The annihilation fraction module calls an internal installation of MadDM, a dark matter phenomenology plugin for the Monte Carlo event generator MadGraph5 _ aMC@NLO, to compute the thermally averaged cross section $\langle σv\rangle_i$ for each annihilation channel $χχ$ ($\bar{χ}$,$χ^†$)→ i $\∈{SM, SM}. . The module then computes the fractional annihilation rate (annihilation fraction) into each channel. The flux module combines the flux spectrum from each annihilation channel, weighted by the appropriate annihilation fractions, to compute the total flux at Earth due to DM annihilation. In DarkFlux v1.0, this module specifically computes the γ-ray flux for each channel using the publicly available PPPC4DMID tables. The analysis module compares the total flux to observational data and computes the upper limit at 95% confidence level (CL) on the total thermally averaged DM annihilation cross section. In DarkFlux v1.0, this module compares the total γ-ray flux to a joint-likelihood analysis of fifteen dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) analyzed by the Fermi-LAT collaboration. DarkFlux v1.0 automatically provides data tables and can plot the output of these three modules. In this manual, we briefly motivate this indirect-detection computer tool and review the essential DM physics. We then describe the several modules of DarkFlux in greater detail. Finally, we show how to install and run DarkFlux and provide two worked examples demonstrating its capabilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics.

The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. These new methods will become increasingly important in the coming years as the volume of survey data continues to increase, and as the degeneracy between predictions of different physical models grows. There are several perspectives on the divergences between the values of cosmological parameters, such as the model-independent probes in the late Universe and model-dependent measurements in the early Universe, which we cover at length. The White Paper closes with a number of recommendations for the community to focus on for the upcoming decade of observational cosmology, statistical data analysis, and fundamental physics developments.

Dienes, Keith [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2024

The damage Mechanics challenge Results: Participant predictions compared with experiment

In this article, We present results from a recent exercise where participating organizations were asked to provide model-based blind predictions of damage evolution in 3D-printed geomaterial analogue test articles. Participants were provided with a range of data characterizing both the undamaged state (e.g., ultrasonic measurements) and damage evolution (e.g., 3-point bending, unconfined compression, and Brazilian testing) of the material. In this paper, we focus on comparisons between the participants’ predictions and the previously secret challenge problem experimental observations. We present valuable lessons learned for the application of numerical methods to deformation and failure in brittle-ductile materials. The exercise also enables us to identify which specific types of calibration data were of most utility to the participants in developing their predictions. Further, we identify additional data that would have been useful for participants to improve the confidence of their predictions. Consequently, this work improves our understanding of how to better characterize a material to enable more accurate prediction of damage and failure propagation in natural and engineered brittle-ductile materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-throughput screening tools facilitate calculation of a combined exposure-bioactivity index for chemicals with endocrine activity

High-throughput and computational tools provide a new opportunity to calculate combined bioactivity of exposure to diverse chemicals acting through a common mechanism. We used high throughput in vitro bioactivity data and exposure predictions from the U.S. EPA’s Toxicity and Exposure Forecaster (ToxCast and ExpoCast) to estimate combined estrogen receptor (ER) agonist activity of non-pharmaceutical chemical exposures for the general U.S. population. High-throughput toxicokinetic (HTTK) data provide conversion factors that relate bioactive concentrations measured in vitro (µM), to predicted population geometric mean exposure rates (mg/kg/day). These data were available for 22 chemicals with ER agonist activity and were estimated for other ER bioactive chemicals based on the geometric mean of HTTK values across chemicals. For each chemical, ER bioactivity across ToxCast assays was compared to predicted population geometric mean exposure at different levels of in vitro potency and model certainty. Dose additivity was assumed in calculating a Combined Exposure-Bioactivity Index (CEBI), the sum of exposure/bioactivity ratios. Combined estrogen bioactivity was also calculated in terms of the percent maximum bioactivity of chemical mixtures in human plasma using a concentration-addition model. Estimated CEBIs vary greatly depending on assumptions used for exposure and bioactivity. In general, CEBI values were <1 when using median of the estimated general population chemical intake rates, while CEBI were ≥1 when using the upper 95th confidence bound for those same intake rates for all chemicals. Concentration-addition model predictions of mixture bioactivity yield comparable results. Based on current in vitro bioactivity data, HTTK methods, and exposure models, combined exposure scenarios sufficient to influence estrogen bioactivity in the general population cannot be ruled out. Future improvements in screening methods and computational models could reduce uncertainty and better inform the potential combined effects of estrogenic chemicals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature and air pollution exposures on suicide mortality

Background: Individual components of the ambient environment, such as temperature and air pollution, exist as part of a complex mixture and have been associated with suicide; however, their interactive effects remain poorly understood. This study examined the independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) on suicide mortality. Methods: We identified 7,551 suicide cases in Utah, USA, from 2000 to 2016 and assigned exposure to daily maximum WBGT (sourced from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and PM 2.5 and NO 2 concentrations (sourced from a national spatiotemporal ensemble model) using decedent’s residential address at the time of death. A case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the independent and interactive effects of WBGT max , PM 2.5 , and NO 2 on suicide. For exposure windows, we considered single days preceding suicide (lag 0 to 6) and their averages across preceding days (lag 0–1, 0–3, and 0–6). Analyses were stratified by season. Results: We identified a significant association between WBGT max and suicide across all seasons (odds ratio [OR] = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.10; per 5 °C increase on lag 0–3 days). The associations were stronger in the warm season (March 22 to September 21), with ORs and 95% CIs ranging from 1.08 (1.02, 1.15) to 1.20 (1.10, 1.30) per 5 °C increase depending on the lag periods. We observed synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 in the warm season, associated with higher odds of suicide. The associations of WBGT max with suicide were most pronounced at high NO 2 levels. Conclusions: We found evidence of synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 on suicide in the warm season, emphasizing the need for considering the combined effects of heat stress and air pollution in suicide prevention strategies.

Fine particulate matter↗