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NASA NTRS1975

Technology and public policy: The process of technology assessment in the Federal Government

Conclusions drawn from research and a series of recommendations for the improvement of the technology assessment process in Federal agencies are presented. The following topics are discussed: (1) who is doing technology assessment; (2) the organization of technology assessments; (3) disciplines and techniques used in technology; (4) analysis of a sample of technology assessment studies: initiation, disciplines, techniques, costs, scope, purpose, and utilization; (5) gaps and overlaps in governmental assessment of nine major technologies; (6) prerequisites for further improvement of technology assessment; and (7) recommendations.

Coates, V. T.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Ohio River main stem study - The role of geographic information systems and remote sensing in flood damage assessments

The Pittsburgh District, Corps of Engineers, has conducted feasibility analyses of various procedures for performing flood damage assessments along the main stem of the Ohio River. Procedures using traditional, although highly automated, techniques and those based on geographic information systems have been evaluated at a test site, the City of New Martinsville, Wetzel County, WV. The flood damage assessments of the test site developed from an automated, conventional structure-by-structure appraisal served as the ground truth data set. A geographic information system was developed for the test site which includes data on hydraulic reach, ground and reference flood elevations, and land use/cover. Damage assessments were made using land use mapping developed from an exhaustive field inspection of each tax parcel. This ground truth condition was considered to provide the best comparison of flood damages to the conventional approach. Also, four land use/cover data sets were developed from Thematic Mapper Simulator (TMS) and Landsat-4 Thematic Mapper (TM) data. One of these was also used to develop a damage assessment of the test site. This paper presents the comparative absolute and relative accuracies of land use/cover mapping and flood damage assessments, and the recommended role of geographic information systems aided by remote sensing for conducting flood damage assessments and updates along the main stem of the Ohio River.

Edwardo, H. A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA): CIL issues resolution report, volume 1

The results of the Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA) of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Critical Items List (CIL) are presented. This report contains IOA assessment worksheets showing resolution of outstanding IOA CIL issues that were summarized in the IOA FMEA/CIL Assessment Interim Report, dated 9 March 1988. Each assessment worksheet has been updated with CIL issue resolution and rationale. The NASA and Prime Contractor post 51-L FMEA/CIL documentation assessed is believed to be technically accurate and complete. No assessment issues remain that has safety implications. Volume 1 contain worksheets for the following sybsystems: Landing and Deceleration Subsystem; Purge, Vent and Drain Subsystem; Active Thermal Control and Life Support Systems; Crew Equipment Subsystem; Instrumentation Subsystem; Data Processing Subsystem; Atmospheric Revitalization Pressure Control Subsystem; Hydraulics and Water Spray Boiler Subsystem; and Mechanical Actuation Subsystem.

Urbanowicz, Kenneth J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Denver TMA assessment

This report describes the assessment of the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) conducted at the Denver Center and TRACON, January 11-February 5, 1993. The assessment addressed the effectiveness of TMA for supporting various traffic management activities. At the Center, traffic management coordinators (TMC's) shadowed traffic operations, using TMA to make metering time and internal release decisions. At the TRACON, TMC's accessed TMA in an advisory mode for different planning activities such as staffing, distributing the traffic load, and changing the airport acceptance rate. These different opportunities for assessing TMA provide insight into TMA as a potential communication aid and planning tool. Findings from this assessment indicate that TMA can be used to support traffic management planning and decisions. TMC's at the center were able to use information provided by TMA to determine metering times as well as internal release times. At the TRACON, TMA supported decisions on airport configuration, airport acceptance rate, load distribution, proactive coordination with the center, and staffing. While findings of TMA use are generally positive, it must be kept in mind that this assessment is a snapshot in time. Not all TMA capabilities were assessed, nor were TMC's fully trained and knowledgeable on all features. Feature use will continue to evolve and strategies emerge as the TMC's gain experience with TMA over a variety of traffic situations and their understanding of TMA capabilities broadens with continued training.

Harwood, Kelly↗

NASA NTRS1999

Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that affects decision-making, and better preparedness for contingencies.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS2001

Use of System Safety Risk Assessments for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM)

This paper discusses the System Safety approach used to assess risk for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Previous to the first RSRM flight in the fall of 1988, all systems were analyzed extensively to assure that hazards were identified, assessed and that the baseline risk was understood and appropriately communicated. Since the original RSRM baseline was established, Thiokol and NASA have implemented a number of initiatives that have further improved the RSRM. The robust design, completion of rigorous testing and flight success of the RSRM has resulted in a wise reluctance to make changes. One of the primary assessments required to accompany the documentation of each proposed change and aid in the decision making process is a risk assessment. Documentation supporting proposed changes, including the risk assessments from System Safety, are reviewed and assessed by Thiokol and NASA technical management. After thorough consideration, approved changes are implemented adding improvements to and reducing risk of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) Update

The Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) has developed a flexible systems analysis framework to identify long-term technology needs, quantify payoffs for technology investments, and assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics area. For this, ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. Concepts for transportation systems are selected based on relevance to the ASTP and integrated concept models (ICM) of these concepts are developed. Key technologies of interest are identified and projections are made of their characteristics with respect to their impacts on key aspects of the specific concepts of interest. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework in ModelCenter. This framework permits rapid sensitivity analysis, single point design assessment, and a full probabilistic assessment of each concept with respect to both embedded and enhancing technologies. Probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP using a multivariate decision making process to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. ITAC program is currently finishing the assessment of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO), rocket-based combined cycle (RBCC) concept and a TSTO turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) concept developed by the team with inputs from NASA. A baseline all rocket TSTO concept is also being developed for comparison. Boeing has recently submitted a performance model for their Flexible Aerospace System Solution for Tomorrow (FASST) concept and the ISAT program will provide inputs for a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) TBCC based concept in the near-term. Both of these latter concepts will be analyzed within the ITAC framework over the summer. This paper provides a status update of the ITAC program.

Taylor, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

TOPEX Radar Altimeter Engineering Assessment Report Update: Side B Turn-On to January 1, 2004

This is the eleventh in a series of TOPEX Radar Engineering Assessment Reports, The initial TOPEX Radar Altimeter Engineering Assessment Report, in February 1994, presented performance results for the NASA Radar Altimeter on the TOPEX/POSEIDON spacecraft, from the time of its launch in August 1992 to February 1994. Since the time of that initial report and prior to this report, there have been nine interim supplemental Engineering Assessment Reports, issued in March 1995, May 1996, March 1997, June 1998, August 1999, September 2000, June 2001, March 2002 and again in May 2003.The sixth supplement in September 2000 was the first assessment report that addressed Side B performance, and presented the altimeter performance from the turn-on of Side B until the end of calendar year 1999. This report extends the performance assessment of Side B to the end of calendar year 2003 and includes the performance assessment of Jason-1, the TOPEX follow-on mission, launched on December 7, 2001.

Hancock, David W., III↗

NASA NTRS2006

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Rhatigan, Jennifer↗

NASA NTRS2007

Improvements to NASA's Debris Assessment Software

NASA's Debris Assessment Software (DAS) has been substantially revised and expanded. DAS is designed to assist NASA programs in performing orbital debris assessments, as described in NASA s Guidelines and Assessment Procedures for Limiting Orbital Debris. The extensive upgrade of DAS was undertaken to reflect changes in the debris mitigation guidelines, to incorporate recommendations from DAS users, and to take advantage of recent software capabilities for greater user utility. DAS 2.0 includes an updated environment model and enhanced orbital propagators and reentry-survivability models. The ORDEM96 debris environment model has been replaced by ORDEM2000 in DAS 2.0, which is also designed to accept anticipated revisions to the environment definition. Numerous upgrades have also been applied to the assessment of human casualty potential due to reentering debris. Routines derived from the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool, Version 6 (ORSAT 6), determine which objects are assessed to survive reentry, and the resulting risk of human casualty is calculated directly based upon the orbital inclination and a future world population database. When evaluating reentry risks, the user may enter up to 200 unique hardware components for each launched object, in up to four nested levels. This last feature allows the software to more accurately model components that are exposed below the initial breakup altitude. The new DAS 2.0 provides an updated set of tools for users to assess their mission s compliance with the NASA Safety Standard and does so with a clear and easy-to-understand interface. The new native Microsoft Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is a vast improvement over the previous DOS-based interface. In the new version, functions are more-clearly laid out, and the GUI includes the standard Windows-style Help functions. The underlying routines within the DAS code are also improved.

Opiela, J.↗

NASA NTRS2006

TOPEX Radar Altimeter Engineering Assessment Report Final Update-Side B Turn-On to End-of-Mission on October 9, 2005

This is the thirteenth and final report in a series of TOPEX Radar Altimeter Engineering Assessment Reports. The initial TOPEX Radar Altimeter Engineering Assessment Report, in February 1994, presented performance results for the NASA Radar Altimeter on the TOPEX/POSEIDON spacecraft, from its launch in August 1992 to February 1994. Since the time of that initial report and prior to this report, there have been eleven interim supplemental Engineering Assessment Reports, issued in March 1995, May 1996, March 1997, June 1998, August 1999, September 2000, June 2001, March 2002, May 2003, April 2004 and September 2005. The sixth supplement in September 2000 was the first assessment report that addressed Side B performance, and presented the altimeter performance from Side B turn-on until the end of calendar year 1999. This report extends the performance assessment of Side B to the final collection of data on October 9, 2005, and includes the performance assessment of Jason-1, the TOPEX follow-on mission, launched on December 7, 2001. This report provides some comparisons of Side A and Side B performance.

Lockwood, Dennis W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Skill Assessment in Ocean Biological Data Assimilation

There is growing recognition that rigorous skill assessment is required to understand the ability of ocean biological models to represent ocean processes and distributions. Statistical analysis of model results with observations represents the most quantitative form of skill assessment, and this principle serves as well for data assimilation models. However, skill assessment for data assimilation requires special consideration. This is because there are three sets of information in the free-run model, data, and the assimilation model, which uses Data assimilation information from both the flee-run model and the data. Intercom parison of results among the three sets of information is important and useful for assessment, but is not conclusive since the three information sets are intertwined. An independent data set is necessary for an objective determination. Other useful measures of ocean biological data assimilation assessment include responses of unassimilated variables to the data assimilation, performance outside the prescribed region/time of interest, forecasting, and trend analysis. Examples of each approach from the literature are provided. A comprehensive list of ocean biological data assimilation and their applications of skill assessment, in both ecosystem/biogeochemical and fisheries efforts, is summarized.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

NASA NTRS2014

On Noise Assessment for Blended Wing Body Aircraft

A system noise study is presented for the blended-wing-body (BWB) aircraft configured with advanced technologies that are projected to be available in the 2025 timeframe of the NASA N+2 definition. This system noise assessment shows that the noise levels of the baseline configuration, measured by the cumulative Effective Perceived Noise Level (EPNL), have a large margin of 34 dB to the aircraft noise regulation of Stage 4. This confirms the acoustic benefits of the BWB shielding of engine noise, as well as other projected noise reduction technologies, but the noise margins are less than previously published assessments and are short of meeting the NASA N+2 noise goal. In establishing the relevance of the acoustic assessment framework, the design of the BWB configuration, the technical approach of the noise analysis, the databases and prediction tools used in the assessment are first described and discussed. The predicted noise levels and the component decomposition are then analyzed to identify the ranking order of importance of various noise components, revealing the prominence of airframe noise, which holds up the levels at all three noise certification locations and renders engine noise reduction technologies less effective. When projected airframe component noise reduction is added to the HWB configuration, it is shown that the cumulative noise margin to Stage 4 can reach 41.6 dB, nearly at the NASA goal. These results are compared with a previous NASA assessment with a different study framework. The approaches that yield projections of such low noise levels are discussed including aggressive assumptions on future technologies, assumptions on flight profile management, engine installation, and component noise reduction technologies. It is shown that reliable predictions of component noise also play an important role in the system noise assessment. The comparisons and discussions illustrate the importance of practical feasibilities and constraints in aircraft system noise studies, which include aerodynamic performance, propulsion efficiency, flight profile limitation and many other factors. For a future aircraft concept to achieve the NASA N+2 noise goal it will require a range of fully successful noise reduction technology developments.

Guo, Yueping↗

NASA NTRS2014

Open Rotor Tone Shielding Methods for System Noise Assessments Using Multiple Databases

Advanced aircraft designs such as the hybrid wing body, in conjunction with open rotor engines, may allow for significant improvements in the environmental impact of aviation. System noise assessments allow for the prediction of the aircraft noise of such designs while they are still in the conceptual phase. Due to significant requirements of computational methods, these predictions still rely on experimental data to account for the interaction of the open rotor tones with the hybrid wing body airframe. Recently, multiple aircraft system noise assessments have been conducted for hybrid wing body designs with open rotor engines. These assessments utilized measured benchmark data from a Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustic interaction effects test. The measured data demonstrated airframe shielding of open rotor tonal and broadband noise with legacy F7/A7 open rotor blades. Two methods are proposed for improving the use of these data on general open rotor designs in a system noise assessment. The first, direct difference, is a simple octave band subtraction which does not account for tone distribution within the rotor acoustic signal. The second, tone matching, is a higher-fidelity process incorporating additional physical aspects of the problem, where isolated rotor tones are matched by their directivity to determine tone-by-tone shielding. A case study is conducted with the two methods to assess how well each reproduces the measured data and identify the merits of each. Both methods perform similarly for system level results and successfully approach the experimental data for the case study. The tone matching method provides additional tools for assessing the quality of the match to the data set. Additionally, a potential path to improve the tone matching method is provided.

Bahr, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary two-page assessment representing the state of knowledge/evidence of that risk, available risk mitigations, traceability to the Space Flight Human System Standards (SFHSS) and program requirements, and future work required. These data then can drive coordinated budgets across the Human Research Program, the International Space Station, Crew Health and Safety and Advanced Exploration System budgets to provide the most economical and timely mitigations. The risk assessments were completed for the 6 DRMs and serve as the baseline for which subsequent research and technology development and crew health care portfolios can be assessed. The HSRB reviews each risk at least annually or when new evidence/information is available that adds to the body of evidence. The current status of each risk can be reported to program management for operations, budget reviews and general oversight of the human system risk management program.

Francisco, D.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Project Assessment Report for the Beta-Release L4_SM Data Product - Volume 40

ubRMSE↗

NASA NTRS2015

Inconsistent Strategies to Spin up Models in CMIP5: Implications for Ocean Biogeochemical Model Performance Assessment

During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to- model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

histories↗

NASA NTRS2016

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_SM Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public Version 2 validated release scheduled for 29 April 2016. The assessment of the Version 2 L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to up-scaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the wide geographic range of the sparse network sites, and the global assessment of the assimilation diagnostics, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 2 validation and supports the validated release of the data. An analysis of the time average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern of arid and humid regions are captured by the L4_SM estimates. Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that "Version 2" of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the ubRMSE: the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) after removal of the long-term mean difference. The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM surface soil moisture at the 9 km scale is 0.035 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The corresponding ubRMSE for L4_SM root zone soil moisture is 0.024 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. Both of these metrics are comfortably below the 0.04 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only SMAP Nature Run version 4 (NRv4), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. L4_SM surface soil moisture estimates are consistently more skillful than NRv4 estimates, although not by a statistically significant margin. The lack of statistical significance is not surprising given the limited data record available to date. Root zone soil moisture estimates from L4_SM and NRv4 have similar skill. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from nearly 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results. The instantaneous soil moisture and soil temperature analysis increments are within a reasonable range and result in spatially smooth soil moisture analyses. The O-F residuals exhibit only small biases on the order of 1-3 degrees Kelvin between the (re-scaled) SMAP brightness temperature observations and the L4_SM model forecast, which indicates that the assimilation system is largely unbiased. The spatially averaged time series standard deviation of the O-F residuals is 5.9 degrees Kelvin, which reduces to 4.0 degrees Kelvin for the observation-minus-analysis (O-A) residuals, reflecting the impact of the SMAP observations on the L4_SM system. Averaged globally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals is close to unity, which would suggest that the magnitude of the modeled errors approximately reflects that of the actual errors. The assessment report also notes several limitations of the "Version 2" L4_SM data product and science algorithm calibration that will be addressed in future releases. Regionally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals deviates considerably from unity, which indicates that the L4_SM assimilation algorithm either over- or under-estimates the actual errors that are present in the system. Planned improvements include revised land model parameters, revised error parameters for the land model and the assimilated SMAP observations, and revised surface meteorological forcing data for the operational period and underlying climatological data. Moreover, a refined analysis of the impact of SMAP observations will be facilitated by the construction of additional variants of the model-only reference data. Nevertheless, the “Version 2” validated release of the L4_SM product is sufficiently mature and of adequate quality for distribution to and use by the larger science and application communities.

SMAP L4_SM↗