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DOE OSTI2015

Nested Narratives Final Report

In cybersecurity forensics and incident response, the story of what has happened is the most important artifact yet the one least supported by tools and techniques. Existing tools focus on gathering and manipulating low-level data to allow an analyst to investigate exactly what happened on a host system or a network. Higher-level analysis is usually left to whatever ad hoc tools and techniques an individual may have developed. We discuss visual representations of narrative in the context of cybersecurity incidents with an eye toward multi-scale illustration of actions and actors. We envision that this representation could smoothly encompass individual packets on a wire at the lowest level and nation-state-level actors at the highest. We present progress to date, discuss the impact of technical risk on this project and highlight opportunities for future work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Evaluation of various interpolants available in DICE

This report evaluates several interpolants implemented in the Digital Image Correlation Engine (DICe), an image correlation software package developed by Sandia. By interpolants we refer to the basis functions used to represent discrete pixel intensity data as a continuous signal. Interpolation is used to determine intensity values in an image at non - pixel locations. It is also used, in some cases, to evaluate the x and y gradients of the image intensities. Intensity gradients subsequently guide the optimization process. The goal of this report is to inform analysts as to the characteristics of each interpolant and provide guidance towards the best interpolant for a given dataset. This work also serves as an initial verification of each of the interpolants implemented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Confidence in Numerical Simulations

This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Data Release Report for Source Physics Experiments 2 and 3 (SPE-2 and SPE-3) Nevada National Security Site

The second Source Physics Experiment shot (SPE-2) was conducted in Nevada on October 25, 2011, at 1900:00.011623 Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). The explosive source was 997 kilograms (kg) trinitrotoluene (TNT) equivalent of sensitized heavy ammonium fuel oil (SHANFO) detonated at a depth of 45.7 meters (m). The third Source Physics Experiment shot (SPE-3) was conducted in Nevada on July 24, 2012, at 1800:00.44835 GMT. The explosive source was 905 kg TNT equivalent of SHANFO detonated at a depth of 45.8 m. Both shots were recorded by an extensive set of instrumentation that includes sensors both at near-field (less than 100 m) and far-field (100 m or greater) distances. The near-field instruments consisted of three-component accelerometers deployed in boreholes at 15, 46, and 55 m depths around the shot and a set of single-component vertical accelerometers on the surface. The far-field network was composed of a variety of seismic and acoustic sensors, including short-period geophones, broadband seismometers, three-component accelerometers, and rotational seismometers at distances of 100 m to 25 kilometers. This report coincides with the release of these data for analysts and organizations that are not participants in this program. This report describes the second and third Source Physics Experiment shots and the various types of near-field and far-field data that are available.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2015

Training in Building Audit Technologies

In 2011, the Tribe proposed and was awarded the Training in Building Audit Technologies grant from the DOE in the amount of $55,748 to contract for training programs for infrared cameras, blower door technology applications and building systems. The coursework consisted of; Infrared Camera Training: Level I - Thermal Imaging for Energy Audits; Blower Door Analysis and Building-As-A-System Training, Building Performance Institute (BPI) Building Analyst; Building Envelope Training, Building Performance Institute (BPI) Envelope Professional; and Audit/JobFLEX Tablet Software. Competitive procurement of the training contractor resulted in lower costs, allowing the Tribe to request and receive DOE approval to additionally purchase energy audit equipment and contract for residential energy audits of 25 low-income Tribal Housing units. Sault Tribe personnel received field training to supplement the classroom instruction on proper use of the energy audit equipment. Field experience was provided through the second DOE energy audits grant, allowing Sault Tribe personnel to join the contractor, Building Science Academy, in conducting 25 residential energy audits of low-income Tribal Housing units.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2014

Cooperative measures to support the Indo-Pak Agreement Reducing Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons.

In 2012, India and Pakistan reaffirmed the Agreement on Reducing the Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons. Despite a history of mutual animosity and persistent conflict between the two countries, this agreement derives strength from a few successful nuclear confidence building measures that have stood the test of time. It also rests on the hope that the region would be spared a nuclear holocaust from an accidental nuclear weapon detonation that might be misconstrued as a deliberate use of a weapon by the other side. This study brings together two emerging strategic analysts from South Asia to explore measures to support the Agreement and further develop cooperation around this critical issue. This study briefly dwells upon the strategic landscape of nuclear South Asia with the respective nuclear force management structures, doctrines, and postures of India and Pakistan. It outlines the measures in place for the physical protection and safety of nuclear warheads, nuclear materials, and command and control mechanisms in the two countries, and it goes on to identify the prominent, emerging challenges posed by the introduction of new weapon technologies and modernization of the respective strategic forces. This is followed by an analysis of the agreement itself leading up to a proposed framework for cooperative measures that might enhance the spirit and implementation of the agreement.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2014

Coupled Physics Environment (CouPE) library - Design, Implementation, and Release

Over several years, high fidelity, validated mono-physics solvers with proven scalability on peta-scale architectures have been developed independently. Based on a unified component-based architecture, these existing codes can be coupled with a unified mesh-data backplane and a flexible coupling-strategy-based driver suite to produce a viable tool for analysts. In this report, we present details on the design decisions and developments on CouPE, an acronym that stands for Coupled Physics Environment that orchestrates a coupled physics solver through the interfaces exposed by MOAB array-based unstructured mesh, both of which are part of SIGMA (Scalable Interfaces for Geometry and Mesh-Based Applications) toolkit. The SIGMA toolkit contains libraries that enable scalable geometry and unstructured mesh creation and handling in a memory and computationally efficient implementation. The CouPE version being prepared for a full open-source release along with updated documentation will contain several useful examples that will enable users to start developing their applications natively using the native MOAB mesh and couple their models to existing physics applications to analyze and solve real world problems of interest. An integrated multi-physics simulation capability for the design and analysis of current and future nuclear reactor models is also being investigated as part of the NEAMS RPL, to tightly couple neutron transport, thermal-hydraulics and structural mechanics physics under the SHARP framework. This report summarizes the efforts that have been invested in CouPE to bring together several existing physics applications namely PROTEUS (neutron transport code), Nek5000 (computational fluid-dynamics code) and Diablo (structural mechanics code). The goal of the SHARP framework is to perform fully resolved coupled physics analysis of a reactor on heterogeneous geometry, in order to reduce the overall numerical uncertainty while leveraging available computational resources. The design of CouPE along with motivations that led to implementation choices are also discussed. The first release of the library will be different from the current version of the code that integrates the components in SHARP and explanation on the need for forking the source base will also be provided. Enhancements in the functionality and improved user guides will be available as part of the release. CouPE v0.1 is scheduled for an open-source release in December 2014 along with SIGMA v1.1 components that provide support for language-agnostic mesh loading, traversal and query interfaces along with scalable solution transfer of fields between different physics codes. The coupling methodology and software interfaces of the library are presented, along with verification studies on two representative fast sodium-cooled reactor demonstration problems to prove the usability of the CouPE library.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Pattern ANalytics To Support High-performance Exploitation and Reasoning (PANTHER)

Sandia researchers are developing analytic techniques that efficiently detect patterns in high-volume, noisy, remote sensing and other geospatial data, improving an analysts’ ability to detect possibly off-normal events in complex homeland security, nuclear weapons, and emerging threat environments. High-consequence, national security decisions rely on timely, comprehensive answers to complex questions, yet critical gaps in our approach to these questions remain. PANTHER addresses these gaps through fundamental research on: geospatial-temporal feature extraction via image segmentation and classification; geospatial-temporal graph algorithms and computational geometry; and domain-relevant models of human perception and cognition informing the design of analytic systems. PANTHER’s cross-disciplinary R&D approach uses fundamental science and mathematics to understand how to maximize decision systems through rethinking key aspects of geospatial data analysis. New methods in motion and trajectory analysis support both rapid search for known trajectories as well as rapid clustering and anomaly detection. Thus, the perceptual and visual load on users is reduced by providing pattern analytics with elegant visual cues to spatial and temporal characteristics.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2015

Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC) Assessment Manual, Volume 1: Overview and Methods

The Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC) Assessment Manual is the tool used to organize and guide activities of the FRMAC Assessment Division. The mission of the FRMAC Assessment Division in a radiological emergency is to interpret radiological data and predict worker and public doses. This information is used by Decision Makers to recommend protective actions in accordance with Protection Action Guides (PAGs) issued by government agencies. This manual integrates many health physics tools and techniques used to make these assessments. Volume 1 contains the scientific bases and computational methods for assessment calculations. These calculations are broken up into sections: Section 1 – Public Protection; Section 2 – Emergency Worker Protection; Section 3 – Ingestion Pathway Analysis; and, Section 4 – Supplemental Methods. FRMAC’s broad-based staff is the key to achieving Assessment's objectives. The staff is drawn from multiple agencies and has a variety of skills. The staff includes health physicists, data analysts, cartographers, modelers, meteorologists, and computer scientists. These professionals facilitate the analysis, interpretation, presentation and preservation of incident specific radiological data. These individuals are primarily drawn from the NNSA and the EPA. However, staff also includes members from the NRC, USDA, FDA, CDC, and other Federal agencies. State, Local, and Tribal scientific specialists are also invited to participate.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

AGR-3/4 Final Data Qualification Report for ATR Cycles 151A through 155B-1

This report provides the qualification status of experimental data for the entire Advanced Gas Reactor 3/4 (AGR 3/4) fuel irradiation. AGR-3/4 is the third in a series of planned irradiation experiments conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification Program, which supports development of the advanced reactor technology under the INL ART Technology Development Office (TDO). The main objective of AGR-3/4 irradiation is to provide a known source of fission products for subsequent transport through compact matrix and structural graphite materials due to the presence of designed-to-fail fuel particles. Full power irradiation of the AGR 3/4 test began on December 14, 2011 (ATR Cycle 151A), and was completed on April 12, 2014 (end of ATR Cycle 155B) after 369.1 effective full power days of irradiation. The AGR-3/4 test was in the reactor core for eight of the ten ATR cycles between 151A and 155B. During the unplanned outage cycle, 153A, the experiment was removed from the ATR northeast flux trap (NEFT) location and stored in the ATR canal. This was to prevent overheating of fuel compacts due to higher than normal ATR power during the subsequent Powered Axial Locator Mechanism cycle, 153B. The AGR 3/4 test was inserted back into the ATR NEFT location during the outage of ATR Cycle 154A on April 26, 2013. Therefore, the AGR-3/4 irradiation data received during these 2 cycles (153A and 153B) are irrelevant and their qualification status isnot included in this report. Additionally, during ATR Cycle 152A the ATR core ran at low power for a short enough duration that the irradiation data are not used for physics and thermal calculations. However, the qualification status of irradiation data for this cycle is still covered in this report. As a result, this report includes data from 8 ATR Cycles: 151A, 151B, 152A, 152B, 154A, 154B, 155A, and 155B, as recorded in the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS). The AGR 3/4 data streams addressed in this report include thermocouple (TC) temperatures, sweep gas data (flow rates, pressure, and moisture content), and Fission Product Monitoring System (FPMS) data (release rates, release to birth rate ratios [R/Bs], and particle failure counts) for each of the twelve capsules in the AGR 3/4 experiment. During Outage Cycle 155A, fourteen flow meters were installed downstream from fourteen FPMS monitors to measure flows from the monitors; qualification status of these data are also included in the report. The final data qualification status for these data streams is determined by a Data Review Committee (DRC) composed of AGR technical leads, Sitewide Quality Assurance (QA), and NDMAS analysts. For ATR Cycles 151A through 154B, the DRC convened on February 12, 2014, reviewed the data acquisition process, and considered whether the data met the requirements for data collection as specified in QA approved INL ART TDO data collection plans. The DRC also examined the results of NDMAS data testing and statistical analyses, and confirmed the qualification status of the data as given in this report. The qualification status of AGR-3/4 irradiation data during the first six cycles were previously reported in INL/EXT-14-31186 document. This report presents data qualification status for the entire AGR-3/4 irradiation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2015

SPSP Phase III Recruiting, Selecting, and Developing Secure Power Systems Professionals: Individual and Team Performance Guidelines

The pending retirement of significant numbers of power system experts and a continuing trend of increasing complexity in modern power systems prompted the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to establish the three-phase Secure Power Systems Professional (SPSP) project. The project developed resources for job definition and competency analysis along with tools to guide assessment and curriculum design and to help identify and develop required knowledge, skills, and abilities in technical and operational aspects of power systems cybersecurity. The Secure Power Systems Professional Phase III final report was released last year which an appendix of Individual and Team Performance Guidelines. This new report is that appendix broken out as a standalone document to assist utilities in recruiting and developing Secure Power Systems Professionals at their site. Individual/Team Performance Guidelines were developed for each of the four job roles: the secure power systems engineer, incident responder, intrusion analyst, and security operator. They enable an “at-a-glance” view of the multidisciplinary and collaborative nature of SPSP job roles, for which skill sets were studied and then mapped to stories of critical incidents or vignettes. This afforded an enumeration of tasks required of each job role to effectively perform responsibilities and to meet bestpractice goals for that operation. Assignment of these tasks among the job roles, either as an individual responsibility or a collaborative responsibility, was validated during a job performance model analysis. The analysis identified 13 master vignettes from the collection of critical incident stories, many of which shared a common set of job responsibilities and tasks that were grouped into four vignette categories according to the task requirement for effective response to each event.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

SPSP Phase III Recruiting, Selecting, and Developing Secure Power Systems Professionals. Job Profiles

The Secure Power Systems Professional Phase III final report was released last year which an appendix of Job Profiles. This new report is that appendix broken out as a standalone document to assist utilities in recruiting and developing Secure Power Systems Professionals at their site. A major accomplishment during Phase III of the project was the development of psychometrically validated job profiles for four identified SPSP job roles: the secure power systems engineer, incident responder, intrusion analyst, and security operator. The job profiles were produced by integrating the results of Phases I and II to capture the relevant job requirements that would be necessary to accurately predict job performance. They can be immediately applied by human resources professionals, recruiters, and hiring managers to assist in the recruitment, selection, and training of SPSPs, as well as to identify needed skills to qualify and equip existing employees to work as SPSPs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

Data Release Report for Source Physics Experiments 2 and 3 (SPE-2 and SPE-3) Nevada National Security Site

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2014

End-User Evaluation of SHARP for Analysis of Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors

The DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program is developing the SHARP toolkit to support growing reactor analysis needs in other programs. Although SHARP includes physics modules—especially the computational fluid dynamics code Nek5000 and the structural mechanics tools in Diablo—that have an existing user-base in other fields, most of the analysis and validation efforts for nuclear reactor applications have been performed by members of SHARP’s own development team. The SHARP development team includes engineers and computational scientists from a diverse set of backgrounds, including nuclear engineering. However, before the SHARP tools can be adopted by the Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) program to support the analysis of sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), it would be beneficial for an outside set of analysts and engineers to begin using SHARP and providing feedback to both programs. The authors of this report were charged with learning to use SHARP, applying SHARP to SFR analyses of interest to ART, evaluating the tools, and providing a set of recommendations and requirements to guide future development efforts by the NEAMS program. The authors are engineers (nuclear, mechanical, and civil) by training; all have experience in modeling and simulation for nuclear energy applications; all have either supported ART directly or report to a supervisor who does. This report is a formal summary of the findings of this team of engineers—the potential end-users of SHARP for ART activities. In an informal way, this effort also opened up communication lines between the SHARP developers and ART engineers, which will continue beyond the scope of this effort.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Streamlining NIF Design Engineering Processes

As a new project and facility, the National Ignition Facility (NIF) located a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), adopted a design standard that incorporated a safety criteria process that all equipment was to be designed with thorough design documentation and a level of safety evaluation that guaranteed tractability and success in the commissioning of this new asset. The documentation is in the form of a Mechanical Engineering Safety Note (MESN) or Engineering Note (EN), which is a complete stand-alone review document of each design, with backup support, detailed analysis, drawings and a full review committee signoff. The design safety review process was given conservative Factors of Safety (FS) and guidance to evaluated design adequacy, leading to robust support structures. The MESN, EN, FS and guidance requirements were primarily driven by a need for confidence in the early success of the facility and the importance of personnel safety concerns. As the NIF facility and operations have matured and design loads, usage and risks have been become well defined and empirically validated, and we now have an opportunity to streamline the design process by not requiring such strict adherence to historical practice, specifically for non-personnel safety related requirements. This streamlining helps support a congressional review that was performed on NIF to determine cost saving opportunities in all areas of operation and development. This proposed NIF design guidance design approach would save design time, schedule and material costs. The new design approach includes reductions in FS and reduction in formal documentation, and will be implemented through the release of a NIF Design Guidance Document. This document will be used actively by designers, project engineers, structural analysts, safety engineers, scientists and engineering management to prepare, evaluated and approve designs for NIF experiments. This document will also be used as a general supporting reference for all design reviews involving the active stakeholders. The active stakeholders will gain through a faster design cycle time, from requirements, to concept, to final design, using less expensive materials and fewer design iterations. The passive stakeholders will gain through lighter weight equipment, easier to acquire materials, easier to manufacture parts and shorter schedules to get equipment in the hands of the user.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Nuclear Energy Knowledge and Validation Center (NEKVaC) Needs Workshop Summary Report

The Department of Energy (DOE) has made significant progress developing simulation tools to predict the behavior of nuclear systems with greater accuracy and of increasing our capability to predict the behavior of these systems outside of the standard range of applications. These analytical tools require a more complex array of validation tests to accurately simulate the physics and multiple length and time scales. Results from modern simulations will allow experiment designers to narrow the range of conditions needed to bound system behavior and to optimize the deployment of instrumentation to limit the breadth and cost of the campaign. Modern validation, verification and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) techniques enable analysts to extract information from experiments in a systematic manner and provide the users with a quantified uncertainty estimate. Unfortunately, the capability to perform experiments that would enable taking full advantage of the formalisms of these modern codes has progressed relatively little (with some notable exceptions in fuels and thermal-hydraulics); the majority of the experimental data available today is the "historic" data accumulated over the last decades of nuclear systems R&D. A validated code-model is a tool for users. An unvalidated code-model is useful for code developers to gain understanding, publish research results, attract funding, etc. As nuclear analysis codes have become more sophisticated, so have the measurement and validation methods and the challenges that confront them. A successful yet cost-effective validation effort requires expertise possessed only by a few, resources possessed only by the well-capitalized (or a willing collective), and a clear, well-defined objective (validating a code that is developed to satisfy the need(s) of an actual user). To that end, the Idaho National Laboratory established the Nuclear Energy Knowledge and Validation Center to address the challenges of modern code validation and to manage the knowledge from past, current, and future experimental campaigns. By pulling together the best minds involved in code development, experiment design, and validation to establish and disseminate best practices and new techniques, the Nuclear Energy Knowledge and Validation Center (NEKVaC or the ‘Center’) will be a resource for industry, DOE Programs, and academia validation efforts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Use Case Realization Report: UCR-02.08 System Refines Event Location

This architecturally significant use case describes how the System refines event hypothesis location solutions. The System locates events by finding the event location minimizing the difference between signal detection feature measurements and signal detection feature predictions (see 'System Measures Signal Features' UC). The System references both empirical knowledge from past events and geophysical models to form the signal detection feature predictions. The System also computes an uncertainty bound for each event hypothesis location solution describing a region bounding the event hypothesis' hypocenter and origin time at a particular confidence level. The System creates a variety of location solutions for each event hypothesis. These location solutions vary from one another in either the input parameters the System uses or in the location solution components the System restrains to fixed values (e.g. depth) during event location calculations. The System computes location solutions using input parameters configured by the System Maintainer (see ‘Configures Processing Components’ UC). The Analyst has the option to override input parameters originally configured by the System Maintainer (see 'Refines Event Location' UC). This use case is architecturally significant due to the processing and memory resource consumption of 3D earth model calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Multi-Channel Correlation Detectors: Accounting for and Reducing Non-target Detections [Slides]

Overwhelming non-target detections require more representative hypothesis test to target real events. Implicit signal model with convex-cone geometry includes both target waveforms and non-targets. New detector screens target waveforms from convex cone members that correlation detectors return. Proto-type detector returns analyst-equivalent detections, requires minimal modification from correlation detector, and has quantifiable detection performance, and satisfies all solution requirements to reduce false detections for GNDD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗