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At least 685 records · Page 38

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Hansen, James E.↗

Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Hansen, James↗

Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Hansen, James↗

Disentangling the Drivers of the Summertime Ozone‐Temperature Relationship Over the United States

Summertime surface-level ozone (O3 ) is known to vary with temperature, but the relative roles of different processes responsible for causing the O3 -temperature relationship are not well quantified. In this study we use simulations of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model (CTM) to isolate and assess the relative impact of atmospheric transport, chemistry, and emissions on O3 variability, events, and its correlation with temperature. Using observations from CASTNet in the contiguous United States, we show that the GMI CTM reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of O3 and the O3 -temperature relationship during the summer. We primarily focus on the total change in O3 due to a change in temperature (d O3 /d T). In regions with strong positive correlations between temperature and O3 such as the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Great Plains, temperature's association with transport primarily drives d O3 /d T with smaller contributions from temperature-dependent chemistry and anthropogenic emissions. There are regions, however, with near-zero correlation between temperature and O3 , and our findings suggest that transport is still an important driver of O3 variability in these regions, albeit not correlated with temperature. Transport is not directly dependent on temperature but rather is linked through an indirect association, and it is therefore important to understand the exact mechanisms that link transport to O3 and how these mechanisms will change in a warming world.

ozone, temperature, CTM↗

Sustainable, Net-Zero Carbon Steelmaking Utilizing Nuclear and Renewable-based Integrated Energy Systems

Decarbonizing Steelmaking: Emissions Background Industrial processes (including power) account for 28% of global CO2 emissions dominated by steel, cement, NH3, ethylene. Steel accounts for 7% of global CO2 emissions (25% of Industrial), 2-3 Gigatonnes annually. Given long asset life and large investments in steel industry, recommend: Detailed analysis, materials R&D and pre-pilot technology integration required by 2030 to position U.S. industry for an investment decision for building first net-zero integrated steel plan Symposium site: https://www.aiche.org/cei/conferences/competitive-energy-systems/2021

08 HYDROGEN↗

Obliquity Experiments with a Mars General Circulation Model

We have simulated the seasonal variation of the general circulation on Mars for obliquities of 0deg and 60deg. These obliquities represent the minimum and maximum values the planet has experienced during the past 10(exp 7) years (e.g., Laskar and Robutel, 1993, Nature, 361, 608-614). The model we use is the NASA/Ames Mars General Circulation Model (Pollack et al., 1993, J. Geophys. Res. 98, 3149-3181). We vary only the obliquity; all other model parameters are as in Pollack et al. At high obliquity, the model shows dramatic seasonal variations in the polar caps and in the structure and intensity of the circulation. At the solstices the winter cap extends to the equator. Thus, surface temperatures throughout the entire winter hemisphere are fixed at the CO2 frost point. During summer surface temperatures at the poles reach 269K in the north and 295K in the south. The most notable changes to the circulation at solstice compared to our standard runs are a general weakening of the winter westerlies, a Hadley cell of greater latitudinal extent, and the development of very strong, possibly unstable, low-level jets in midlatitudes of the summer hemisphere. Surface stresses associated with these jets are sufficient to raise dust continuously. Thus, dust storms should be frequent features of the high obliquity climate. This result is independent of any desorbed regolith CO2 which would raise mean surface pressures. At zero obliquity the structure of the circulation resembles that of present day equinox conditions modulated by the varying insolation associated with orbital eccentricity. Notable features include equatorial superrotation, asymmetric Hadley cells, and stronger poleward heat fluxes in the northern hemisphere. Since the poles do not receive solar energy at any time of year, permanent caps form which extend to about 70deg in each hemisphere. However, the north permanent cap is growing at a rate 40% faster than the south cap. This is due to the differences in topography, albedo, emissivity, and heat transport in each hemisphere. Thus the zero obliquity climate system appears to be evolving toward a state in which the north cap is the dominant cap.

Harberle, R. M.↗

Price Formation and Grid Operation Impacts from Variable Renewable Energy Resources

Increasing amounts of Variable Renewable Energy Resources (VREs) impact electricity markets and their operation. VREs are intermittent, zero marginal cost resources that tend to displace emissions-intensive generators in electricity dispatch, reducing emissions, but impacting price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, and market power mitigation processes of electricity markets. But VREs are not the only factor that affects operational and financial challenges in electricity markets. Declining natural gas prices, changing resource mixes, as well as different electricity market designs and regulatory policies all factor into the challenges both electricity market participants and operators face in today’s electricity markets. With this in-depth examination of electricity markets and related literature review, we aim to inform on key challenges of market design and operation for successful integration of large amounts of zero marginal cost resources. We’ve identified several areas, including VREs impact on price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, market power monitoring and mitigation, as well as how state-level incentives and market design impact VREs and these challenges. With each key challenge, we survey the literature to answer the question: To what extent is the problem, and how has it evolved over time? We first conduct a thorough review of ongoing challenges in electricity markets to understand the problem and review the empirical literature to capture important findings on how VREs, specifically, impact the problem. From this review, we highlight metrics that are important to understanding VRE integration and how market designs and outcomes are evolving with increasing levels of VREs. We propose several empirical models for future research to determine the impact of VREs on these identified challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Driving the grid forward: How electric vehicle adoption shapes power system infrastructure and emissions

We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency’s projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency’s roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

AI-Based Optimal Design and Controls Can Greatly Reduce Carbon Emissions and Enhance Resilience in Residential Communities in Cold Climates

Net-zero energy residential communities are crucial for achieving decarbonization goals, but the high-penetration photovoltaic (PV) in those communities is posing challenges to the distribution grid. Traditional design and operation of net-zero communities rely on rule-of-thumb methods and may not work in complex scenarios. Artificial intelligence and machine learning methods can optimally size PV for net-zero energy, identify user preferences and usage patterns, and fully unlock the potential of distributed energy resources to address distribution grid issues.

artificial intelligence↗

Scalable single-mode surface-emitting laser via open-Dirac singularities

Single-aperture cavities are a key component of lasers that are instrumental for the amplification and emission of a single light mode. However, the appearance of high-order transverse modes as the size of the cavities increases has frustrated efforts to scale-up cavities while preserving single-mode operation since the invention of the laser six decades ago. A suitable physical mechanism that allows single-mode lasing irrespective of the cavity size-a 'scale invariant' cavity or laser-has not been identified yet. Here we propose and demonstrate experimentally that open-Dirac electromagnetic cavities with linear dispersion-which in our devices are realized by a truncated photonic crystal arranged in a hexagonal pattern-exhibit unconventional scaling of losses in reciprocal space, leading to single-mode lasing that is maintained as the cavity is scaled up in size. The physical origin of this phenomenon lies in the convergence of the complex part of the free spectral range in open-Dirac cavities towards a constant governed by the loss rates of distinct Bloch bands, whereas for common cavities it converges to zero as the size grows, leading to inevitable multimode emission. An unconventional flat-envelope fundamental mode locks all unit cells in the cavity in phase, leading to single-mode lasing. We name such sources Berkeley surface-emitting lasers (BerkSELs) and demonstrate that their far-field corresponds to a topological singularity of charge two, in agreement with our theory. Open-Dirac cavities unlock avenues for light-matter interaction and cavity quantum electrodynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Identification of opportunities for integrating chemical processes for carbon (dioxide) utilization to nuclear power plants

The energy and industrial sectors are responsible for more than 75% of global carbon dioxide emissions, which are primary contributors to climate change. Decarbonization strategies to reduce overall carbon dioxide emissions are urgently needed. Among the numerous decarbonization strategies that are being defined and implemented, a particular strategy of interest for the present work is “the Re-X or zero waste” strategy, which involves recycling, reuse, repurposing, and remanufacturing of industrial emissions, by-products, and waste in general. A circular value chain or Circular Economy is embedded within this strategy. In a circular carbon economy, efficient reuse of emitted carbon dioxide is considered. However, the stability of carbon dioxide implies the requirement of significant amounts of energy for its transformation into value-added chemicals or products, which must be supplied by low carbon emitting energy sources. Nuclear power plants are low carbon energy sources that, additionally to electricity, could also supply heat and radiation for chemical transformations. This work identifies the opportunities and challenges for the development of integrated energy systems to upgrade and transform carbon dioxide, involving chemical and nuclear energy. The analysis encompasses possible use of the different forms of energy that can be obtain from nuclear reactors (i.e., radiation, electricity, and heat), by reviewing the published literature on potential routes for its conversion. Overall, our review indicates that an universal technology of the one-fits-all solution-type is an utopic dream. Instead, a suite of (contaminants tolerant) technologies for processing various concentrations CO 2 and producing a variety of products is currently needed.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Spectroscopy of an unusual emission line M star

Moderate-resolution spectroscopy of an unusual late-type faint emission-line star, PC 0025 + 0047, is reported. A very strong (greater than 250 A equivalent width) an H-alpha emission line was detected by the present automated line search algorithm. The spectrum was found to have two unresolved emission lines (H-alpha and H-beta) near zero velocity, superposed on the absorption spectrum of a very red M dwarf which has strong K I, and relatively weak bands of TiO. From the weakness of the subordinate lines of Na I (8192 A) and other spectral features, it is inferred that it is definitely a cooler, and probably fainter, analog of LHS 2924. The strength of the emission lines indicates that PC 0025 + 0447 is very young and may be a fading predecessor brown drawf at an estimated M(bol) approaching 14m at a distance of about 60 pc.

Schneider, Donald P.↗

In-FEEP ion beam neutralization with thermionic and field emission cathodes

Charge neutralization of an In-FEEP thruster was demonstrated with three different electron sources by zeroing the floating potential of the thruster and neutralizer system. The three cathodes used in the investigation include a mixed metal thermionic cathode, a carbon nanotube field emission cathode, and a Spindt-type Mo field emission array cathode.

field emission cathodes FEEP electric propulsion↗

The role of negative emissions in meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal

China’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 is an ambitious goal and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to limit warming to +1.5°C warming above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. But the pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear, including the role of negative emissions technologies. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to simulate how negative emissions technologies, in general, and direct air capture (DAC) in particular, could contribute to China’s meeting this target. Our results show that negative emissions could play a large role, offsetting on the order of 3 GtCO 2 per year from difficult-to-mitigate sectors, such as freight transportation and heavy industry. This includes up to a 1.6 GtCO 2 per year contribution from DAC, constituting up to 60% of total projected negative emissions in China. But DAC, like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation, has not yet been demonstrated anywhere approaching the scales required to meaningfully contribute to climate mitigation. Deploying NETs at these scales will have widespread impacts on financial systems and natural resources, such as water, land and energy in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Forest Opacity Using Multi-Angular Emission and Backscatter Data

This paper discusses the results from a series of field experiments using ground-based L-band microwave active/passive sensors. Three independent approaches are employed to the microwave data to determine vegetation opacity of coniferous trees. First, a zero-order radiative transfer model is fitted to multi-angular microwave emissivity data in a least-square sense to provide "effective" vegetation optical depth. Second, a ratio between radar backscatter measurements with the corner reflector under trees and in an open area is calculated to obtain "measured" tree propagation characteristics. Finally, the "theoretical" propagation constant is determined by forward scattering theorem using detailed measurements of size/angle distributions and dielectric constants of the tree constituents (trunk, branches, and needles). The results indicate that "effective" values underestimate attenuation values compared to both "theoretical" and "measured" values.

Kurum, Mehmet↗

Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada

Despite net-zero pledges, consensus on national responsibilities for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is lacking. Here, we use integrated assessment modeling to examine equity-informed estimates of Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, exploring CDR’s role at net-zero and beyond. Gigaton-scale CDR efforts post-2050 are needed to address Canada’s carbon debt under various burden-sharing principles. Cumulative negative emissions (2050-2100) could increase from 7.5 GtCO 2 in the Net-Zero scenario to 20.3 GtCO 2 in equity-informed scenarios. By 2100, a CDR portfolio, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to ~500 MtCO 2 /year of removals. The projected average CDR growth rates, 2.8%-16%/year, align with the historical adoption rates of ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, underscoring the importance of drawing lessons from past successes. Socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis highlights that, despite variations in the role of individual CDR technologies, CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accurate frequency of the 119 micron methanol laser from tunable far-infrared absorption spectroscopy

High-accuracy absorption spectroscopy of CH3OH in the far infrared is discussed. In addition to 22 transitions in the ground state, the frequency of the (n, tau, J, K), (0, 1, 16, 8) to (0, 2, 15, 7) transition in the nu5 excited vibrational level, which is responsible for the laser emission at 119 microns, was measured. The measured frequency is 2,522,782.57(10) MHz at zero pressure, with a pressure shift of 6.1(32) kHz/Pa (0.805/420/ MHz/torr). An accurate remeasurement of the laser emission frequency has also been performed, and the results are in good agreement.

Inguscio, M.↗