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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainties in Atmospheric River Lifecycles by Detection Algorithms: Climatology and Variability

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow filaments of vapor transport that are responsible for most poleward moisture transport outside of the tropics. Many AR detection algorithms have been developed to automatically identify ARs in climate data. The diversity of these algorithms has introduced appreciable uncertainties in quantitative measures of AR properties and thereby impedes the construction of a unified and internally consistent climatology of ARs. This paper compares nine global AR detection algorithms from the perspective of AR lifecycles following the propagation of ARs from origin to termination in the MERRA2 reanalysis over the period 1980–2017. Uncertainties in AR lifecycle characteristics, including event number, lifetime, intensity, and frequency distribution are discussed. Notably, the number of AR events per year in the Northern Hemisphere can vary by a factor of 5 with different algorithms. Although all algorithms show that the maximum AR origin (termination) frequency is located over the western (eastern) portion of ocean basins, significant disagreements appear in regional distribution. Spreads are large in AR lifetime and intensity. Here, the number of landfalling AR events produced by the algorithms can vary from 16 to 80 events per year, although the agreement improves for stronger ARs. By examining the ARs' connections with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation, we find that the overall responses of ARs (such as changes in AR frequency, origin, and landfall activity) to climate variability are consistent among algorithms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the unknown impact of segmentation uncertainty on image-based simulations

Abstract Image-based simulation, the use of 3D images to calculate physical quantities, relies on image segmentation for geometry creation. However, this process introduces image segmentation uncertainty because different segmentation tools (both manual and machine-learning-based) will each produce a unique and valid segmentation. First, we demonstrate that these variations propagate into the physics simulations, compromising the resulting physics quantities. Second, we propose a general framework for rapidly quantifying segmentation uncertainty. Through the creation and sampling of segmentation uncertainty probability maps, we systematically and objectively create uncertainty distributions of the physics quantities. We show that physics quantity uncertainty distributions can follow a Normal distribution, but, in more complicated physics simulations, the resulting uncertainty distribution can be surprisingly nontrivial. We establish that bounding segmentation uncertainty can fail in these nontrivial situations. While our work does not eliminate segmentation uncertainty, it improves simulation credibility by making visible the previously unrecognized segmentation uncertainty plaguing image-based simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Interval prediction in structural dynamic analysis

Methods for assessing the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models are examined with attention given to the effects of modal mass, stiffness, and damping uncertainties. The methods are based on a nondeterministic analysis called 'interval prediction' in which interval variables are used to describe parameters and responses that are unknown. Statistical databases for generic modeling uncertainties are derived from experimental data and incorporated analytically to evaluate responses. Covariance matrices of modal mass, stiffness, and damping parameters are propagated numerically in models of large space structures by means of three methods. The test data tend to fall within the predicted intervals of uncertainty determined by the statistical databases. The present findings demonstrate the suitability of using data from previously analyzed and tested space structures for assessing the predictive accuracy of an analytical model.

Hasselman, Timothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Seismic Study of the Dynamics of the Solar Subsurface from SoHO Observations

In collaboration with Dr. Baudin, we have developed and refined the new observational methodology for local helioseismology known as time-distance analysis. Global helioseismology study the solar oscillations as a superposition of resonant modes, whose properties (mode frequencies) reflect the global structure of the sun (sound speed stratification, rotation rate, etc). In contrast, local helioseismology look at the solar oscillations as wave packets whose propagation will be affected by perturbations of the media sampled. These local perturbations (sound speed or velocity flows) will modify the propagation time, that in turn can be used as a diagnostic tool for a given region. From a data reduction perspective, the processing of solar dopplergrams that result in time-distance maps, i.e. propagation times as a function of distance between bounces at the surface, is radically different from the methodology used for global mode analysis. We have, in a first step, further develop the programs needed to carry out such analysis. We have then applied them to NMI data set, and explore the trade-off between various averaging and filtering approaches - steps required to improve the signal-to-noise ratio of correlation maps - and the resulting stability and precision of the fitted propagation times. While excessive averaging (whether over space, propagation distance, or time) will reduce the diagnostic potential of the method, insufficient averaging lead to unstable fits, or uncertainties so large as to hide the information we seek. In a second phase, we have developed the analysis methodology required to infer local properties from perturbation in time propagation. Namely, we have developed time-distance inversion techniques, with an emphasis on inferences of velocity flows from time anomalies. Note also that during the period covered by this grant, all the investigators on this proposal (i.e., Drs. Baudin, Eff-Darwich, Korzennik, and Noyes) took part in the organization of the SOHO 6 /GONG 99 Workshop: Structure and Dynamics of the Interior of the Sun and Sunlike Stars, held on June 1-4 1999 at the Boston Park Plaza Hotel in Boston, Massachusetts, USA. it was very well attended by more than 160 participants from 26 countries from all over the world. The proceedings were published in two volumes as ESA SP-418, with Sessions I-III in Volume 1, and Sessions IV-VI in Volume 2 (1,000 pages in total). The complete contents are also included in digital form on a CD-ROM included with Volume 1. This CD-ROM also contains additional multi-media material that complements some of the contributions.

Korzennik, Sylvain G.↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Automated Probabilistic Asteroid Prediscovery Pipeline

We present an automated and probabilistic method to make prediscovery detections of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in archival survey images, with the goal of reducing orbital uncertainty immediately after discovery. We refit the Minor Planet Center's astrometry and propagate the full six-parameter covariance to survey epochs to define search regions. We build low-threshold source catalogs for viable images and evaluate every detected source in a search region as a candidate prediscovery. We eliminate false positives by refitting a new orbit to each candidate and probabilistically linking detections across images using a likelihood ratio. Applied to the Zwicky Transient Facility's (ZTF) imaging, we identify approximately 3000 recently discovered NEAs with prediscovery potential, including a doubling of the observational arc for about 500. We use archival ZTF imaging to make prediscovery detections of the potentially hazardous asteroid 2021 DG1, extending its arc by 2.5 yr and reducing future apparition sky plane uncertainty from many degrees to arcseconds. We also recover 2025 FU24 nearly 7 yr before its first known observation, when its sky plane uncertainty covers hundreds of square degrees across thousands of ZTF images. The method is survey agnostic and scalable, enabling rapid orbit refinement for new discoveries from Rubin, NEO Surveyor, and NEOMIR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A New Modeling Approach for a Priori Uncertainties of Laser Tracker Angle Measurements

Methods for modeling the uncertainty in laser tracker angle measurements vary within the metrology industry, leading to confusion and questionable stochastic modeling for survey network adjustments and error propagation analysis. Interpreting the published laser tracker manufacturer performance specifications to determine an a priori sigma value for weighting azimuth and zenith angle measurements can be confusing and has led to differing implementations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a unique way to model survey network a priori laser tracker angular uncertainties based on laser tracker manufacturers’ published maximum permissible error (MPE) values referenced to current standards for weighting survey network measurements. This paper’s proposed model takes into account the disparate effects that pointing errors, target centering errors, and leveling errors have on azimuth and zenith angular uncertainties for measurements with steep sightings and at near ranges.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Maggioni, V.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measuring the angular momentum of a neutron using Earth's rotation

A coupling between Earth's rotation and orbital angular momentum (OAM), known as the Sagnac effect, is observed in entangled neutrons produced using a spin-echo interferometer. After correction for instrument systematics the measured coupling is within 5% of theory, with an uncertainty of 7.2%. The OAM in our setup is transverse to the propagation direction and scales linearly with neutron wavelength (4–12.75 Å), so the Sagnac coupling can be varied without mechanically rotating the device, which avoids systematic errors present in previous experiments. The detected transverse OAM of our beam corresponds to 4098 ± 295 ℏ Å − 1 , 10 5 times lower than in the previous neutron experiments. This demonstrates the feasibility of using the Sagnac effect to definitively measure neutron OAM and paves the way towards a future observation of the quantum Sagnac effect. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Geerits, Niels (ORCID:0000000248072084)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characteristics of thermospheric infrasound predicted using ray tracing and weakly non-linear waveform analyses

Infrasonic signals refracted by thermal gradients in the rarefied upper atmosphere are modeled using a combination of ray tracing and weak shock theory to develop an understanding of thermospheric infrasound signals produced by energetic, transient sources. Canonical arrival structures in the form of u-wave signatures are identified for returns refracted at lower altitudes within the thermosphere, and possible multi-pathing produced by effective sound speed inflections are investigated to elucidate more complex arrival structures, which are found to be spatially localized. Furthermore, variability in the source characteristics is investigated and it is found that whereas some waveform phase information is lost due to finite amplitude effects, arrival characteristics are strongly dependent on the peak overpressure near the source. Variability in the propagation path is considered using archived atmospheric specifications and implies that despite uncertainties related to the dynamic and sparsely sampled nature of the atmosphere, thermospheric signatures might be useful in estimating the yield for explosive sources. Last, thermospheric arrivals from a failed rocket launch, as well as those from several large chemical explosions, are analyzed and it is found that qualitative trends match those predicted, and analyses here provide additional insight into such signatures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

SSAPy - Space Situational Awareness for Python

SSAPy is a fast and flexible orbit modeling and analysis tool for orbits spanning from low-Earth into the cislunar regime. Orbits can be flexibly specified from common input formats such as Keplerian elements or two-line element (TLE) data files. SSAPy allows users to model satellites and specify parameters such as satellite area, mass, and drag coefficients. SSAPy includes a customizable force-propagation with a range of Earth, Lunar, radiation, atmospheric, and maneuvering models. SSAPy makes use of various community integration methods and can calculate time-evolved orbital quantities, including satellite magnitudes and state vectors. Users can specify various space- and ground-based observation models with support for multiple coordinate and reference frames. SSAPy also supports orbit analysis and propagation methods such as multiple hypothesis tracking and has built-in uncertainty quantification. The majority of SSAPy’s methods are vectorized and parallelizable, allowing for effective use of high-performance computer (HPC) systems. Finally, SSAPy has plotting functionality, allowing users to visualize orbits and trajectories. Examples are shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1989

External control of the Saturn kilometric radiation by the solar wind - Comparison between Voyager 1 and 2 observations

The long-term modulation of Saturn's nonthermal radio emission in the kilometric wavelength range has been studied based upon data obtained by Voyagers 1 and 2. A comparison of the ballistic and hydrodynamic propagation of solar wind features from the spacecraft to Saturn allows the uncertainty inherent in the projection to be determined. The results confirm the previous suggestion that momentum, ram pressure, and kinetic energy flux are the primary solar wind parameters that drive the nonthermal radio emission. It is suggested that, under certain conditions and for limited periods of time, the magnetic properties and time derivatives of the solar wind have increased importance.

Rucker, H. O.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Embedding Temporal Constraints For Coordinated Execution in Habitat Automation

Future NASA plans call for long-duration deep space missions with human crews. Because of light-time delay and other considerations, increased autonomy will be needed. This will necessitate integration of tools in such areas as anomaly detection, diagnosis, planning, and execution. In this paper we investigate an approach that integrates planning and execution by embedding planner-derived temporal constraints in an execution procedure. To avoid the need for propagation, we convert the temporal constraints to dispatchable form. We handle some uncertainty in the durations without it affecting the execution; larger variations may cause activities to be skipped.

Morris, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2024

Localization of infrasonic sources via Bayesian back projection

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework is investigated for event-specific localization of infrasonic sources using back projection ray tracing. Direction-of-arrival information from array-based detection analysis is used to initialize a back projection ray path originating from the detecting array location and quantifying propagation characteristics from hypothetical source locations. The Fisher statistic, computed from the array’s beam coherence, is mapped into uncertainty in the launch angles of the ray path. Auxiliary parameters previously introduced for solving the Transport equation to compute geometric spreading along ray paths are used to map uncertainty in the ray launch angles into spatial and temporal uncertainties in the ray path. An atmospheric ensemble approach is applied to account for atmospheric uncertainty, and the relation between uncertainties in the atmospheric state and confidence in estimated localization are evaluated using several ensembles with specified variances. The method is evaluated using a synthetic event in the western United States constructed via forward propagation simulations as well as a single-station, multi-arrival detection from a surface explosion in the western United States. Localization results using this event-specific approach are more accurate and exhibit improved precision than existing Bayesian localization methods that leverage generalized, pre-computed propagation statistics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved Parametric Models for Explosion Pressure Signals Derived From Large Datasets

Accurate recording and characterization of explosion-induced pressure signals are key components of the forensic analysis of explosion events in the atmosphere. Parametric overpressure models based on several key waveform features (peak overpressure, positive pulse duration, and impulse) are widely used to estimate explosion energy in terms of trinitrotoluene equivalent yield. However, those models are often developed by a limited dataset, including only a few events or recordings at relatively short propagation distances. Here, we develop empirical waveform-parameter models based on a regression analysis of a large set of data curated from four chemical explosion experiments including 16 detonations. We measured peak overpressure and impulse for positive and negative phases from 1000 pressure signals recorded at local ranges (<20 km) with scaled distance up to 8000 m/kg 1/3 . Additionally, the measured waveform parameters showed large variation with respect to observing distances indicating the effects of atmospheric propagation. In this study, a second-order polynomial model was used in a least-squares regression to account for those propagation effects and to improve data fitting. In addition to model parameters for waveform features, we also determined range-dependent model uncertainties based on data variance. The model uncertainty represents the prediction error of our models and can be critical to evaluating the uncertainty of yield estimate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlocal Operator Learning with Uncertainty Quantification

The goal of this work is to develop a Bayesian framework to characterize the uncertainty of material response when using a nonlocal, homogenized model to describe wave propagation through heterogeneous, disordered materials. Our approach is based on an operator regression technique combined with Bayesian optimization, through which the nonlocal kernel for a specific disordered microstructure is investigated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗