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DOE OSTI2024

Anion Selectivities in Zwitterion Grafted Nanopores: Effect of Zwitterion Architecture

The separation of ions of similar charge is a crucial challenge in many applications, from water treatment to precious metal recovery. Membranes with cross-linked zwitterionic amphiphilic copolymer (ZAC-X) selective layers, which feature self-assembled, zwitterion-lined nanodomains for permeation, offer unique permselectivity between monovalent anions (e.g. $\mathrm{Cl^-}$/$\mathrm{F^-}$). This has motivated studies on the mechanisms of transport and selectivity in this family of materials. In this study, we conducted molecular dynamics simulations of aqueous salt solutions within zwitterion-functionalized nanopores to elucidate the influence of dipole orientation of the ZI ligands on anion diffusivities, partitioning, and permeabilities. Here, our model compares systems with contrasting ZI organization: surface-cation-anion ($\mathrm{S\text{-}ZI^{+}\text{-}ZI^{-}}$, Motif A) and surface-anion-cation ($\mathrm{S\text{-}ZI^{-}\text{-}ZI^{+}}$, Motif B). Our results reveal that Motif A exhibits less pronounced ion pairing due to a spatial separation in the radial profiles of cations and anions. Motif B demonstrates prominent ion pairing for smaller anions owing to their overlap with cation distributions. Further, our potential of mean force profiles reveal that anion partitioning increases with anion size in both ligand motifs, whereas Motif B exhibits significantly higher partitioning selectivity towards larger anions compared to Motif A. Our results for ion diffusivities show that the self-diffusivities of both anions and cations are lower for Motif B compared to Motif A. Such trends in anion partitioning and diffusivities can be explained by differences in the interactions and steric hindrance experienced by the anionic species in Motifs A and B. Finally, our results for anion permselectivity, obtained by combining partitioning and diffusivity, indicate that partitioning trends dominate over diffusivity trends. Consequently, anion permeability increases with anion size, and ligand Motif B yields much higher permselectivity towards larger anions compared to ligand Motif A.

anions↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanistic Similarities and Differences for Hydrogenation of Aromatic Heterocycles and Aliphatic Carbonyls on Sulfided Ru Nanoparticles

This study establishes the contrasting reactivity trends for the hydrogenation of aromatic hydrocarbons (AHCs = C n H m X, X = N, S, O, and C) and aliphatic carbonyls [R a C(O)R b ; R a = alkyl group, R b = CH 3 or H] on sulfided Ru clusters arising from the difference in the elementary proton and hydride attack catalytic sequence. Both reactions require sequential additions of a proton from either Ru n+ –(SH 2 ) or S 2 –(H δ+ ) species and a hydride from Ru n+ –(H δ– ) species to the unsaturated C=X bonds. For the five-membered-ring aromatic heterocycles (AHCs = pyrrole, thiophene, and furan), an initial proton addition limits the catalytic turnovers; thus, their hydrogenation reactivity increases with increasing gas-phase proton affinities of the AHCs. Pyridine as the more basic six-membered N-AHC is more susceptible to protonation; therefore, it is more reactive, and its initial proton addition is quasi-equilibrated, followed by the kinetically relevant hydride addition. Conversely, aliphatic carbonyls prefer to undergo hydrogen additions in a reverse sequence, where a Ru n+ –(H δ– ) hydride initially attacks the electron-deficient carbonyl C atom as the kinetically relevant step before a subsequent rapid S 2 –(H δ+ ) proton addition on the electron-rich O atom, as confirmed by isotopic exchange studies with butanal-D 2 and 1-butanol-D 2 mixtures and density functional theory calculations on S-deficient RuS 2 (100) surfaces. For these reasons, their hydrogenation reactivity increases with increasing gas-phase hydride affinities of the carbonyls. On metallic Ru surfaces without sulfur, hydrogen adatoms (H*) are the only reactive hydrogen species; the reactivity of their attack on aromatic heterocycles increases with increasing reactant proton affinities much more sensitively than that on sulfided Ru surfaces. This work illustrates the distinct catalytic roles of the diverse hydrogen species in hydrogenation—the interplay between proton and hydride additions has marked catalytic consequences in shaping the free energy landscape of the reactions, which in turn leads to the observed kinetic dependences, kinetic parameters, reactivity trends, and scaling relations between the measured barriers and the appropriate kinetic descriptors, that is, proton affinity of AHCs and hydride affinity of carbonyls in hydrogenation catalysis. Here, these mechanistic similarities and differences provide explanations of the observed reactivity trends and thus have profound implications for industrial hydrogenation and hydrotreating catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing AI-Driven Analysis in X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy: Spectral Domain Mapping and Universal Models

In recent years, rapid progress has been made in developing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods for X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) analysis. Compared to traditional XAS analysis methods, AI/ML approaches offer dramatic improvements in efficiency and help eliminate human bias. To advance this field, we advocate an AI-driven XAS analysis pipeline that features several interconnected key building blocks: benchmarks, workflows, databases, and AI/ML models. Specifically, we present two case studies for XAS ML. In the first study, we demonstrate the importance of reconciling the discrepancies between simulation and experiment using spectral domain mapping (SDM). Our ML model, which is trained solely on simulated spectra, predicts an incorrect oxidation state trend for Ti atoms in a combinatorial zinc titanate film. After transforming the experimental spectra into a simulation-like representation using SDM, the same model successfully recovers the correct oxidation state trend. In the second study, we explore the development of universal XAS ML models that are trained on the entire periodic table, which enables them to leverage common trends across elements. Looking ahead, we envision that an AI-driven pipeline can unlock the potential of real-time XAS analysis to accelerate scientific discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050

We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response to historical increases in radiative forcing. Additionally, we find that exposure can be expected to intensify under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with all counties permanently exceeding the baseline variability in the occurrence of extreme hot days, warm nights, and drought conditions by 2050. As a result, every county in the U.S. is projected to permanently exceed the historical CEI variability (as measured by one standard deviation during the 1981–2005 period). Based on the current population distribution, this unprecedented change implies a yearly exposure to extreme conditions for one in every three people. We find that the increasing trend in exposure to the aggregated extremes is already detectable over much of the U.S., and particularly in the central and eastern U.S. The high correspondence between the pattern of trends in our simulations and observations increases confidence in the projected amplification of population exposure to unprecedented combinations of extreme climate conditions, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to escalate along their current trajectory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Examination of Global Midlatitude Atmospheric River Lifecycles Using an Object-Oriented Methodology

Tracking atmospheric rivers (ARs) across their lifecycles is a field of recent interest with a multitude of emerging methodologies. The CONNected-objECT (CONNECT) algorithm is adapted for the tracking of global midlatitude AR lifecycles and associated precipitation by implementing a seeded region growing segmentation algorithm, creating the AR-CONNECT algorithm. To facilitate the permissiveness of the methodology, AR-CONNECT is without hard-coded geometric criteria yet is still shown to extract synoptic-scale elongated objects >99.99% of the time. One of the consequences of the methodology is the ability to occasionally track atmospheric water vapor anomalies before evolving into AR geometries, effectively tracking AR genesis further back than other studies. With the aid of subdaily satellite-derived rain data, we investigate the climatology, trends, and patterns of AR lifecycles from 1983–2016 and compare with other AR tracking studies. We find that AR frequency, genesis, and terminus locations are in generally good agreement with other AR tracking methodologies, though with key differences, and that AR frequencies in each hemisphere are determined by the number of AR hotspots. Furthermore, we uncover evidence that certain AR characteristics, such as frequency, areal extent, and duration, show evidence of increasing trends. Midlatitude precipitation uncovered by AR-CONNECT shows contributions up to 50% over land and 65% over the ocean. Trend analysis of AR precipitation shows an increase in precipitation associated with ARs propagated by the Southern Jet Stream and ARs that traverse over the Sahara Desert, among others, but is determined not to be a driver of changes in global precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatology and Evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula Föhn Wind-Induced Melt Regime From 1979–2018

Warm and dry föhn winds on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) cause surface melt that can destabilize vulnerable ice shelves. Topographic funneling of these downslope winds through mountain passes and canyons can produce localized wind-induced melt that is difficult to quantify without direct measurements. Our Föhn Detection Algorithm (FöhnDA) identifies the surface föhn signature that causes melt from measurement by 12 Automatic Weather Stations on the AP, that train a machine learning model to detect föhn in 5 km Regional Atmospheric Climate Model 2 (RACMO2.3p2) simulations and in the ERA5 reanalysis model. We estimate the fraction of AP surface melt attributed to föhn and possibly katabatic winds and identify the drivers of melt, temporal variability, and long-term trends and evolution from 1979–2018. We find that föhn wind-induced melt accounts for 3.1% of the total melt on the AP and can be as high at 18% close to the mountains where the winds funnel through mountain canyons. Föhn-induced surface melt does not significantly increase from 1979–2018, despite a warmer atmosphere and more positive Southern Annular Mode. However, a significant increase (+0.1 Gt y-1) and subsequent decrease/stabilization occur in 1979–1998 and 1999–2018, consistent with the AP warming and cooling trends during the same time periods. Föhn occurrence, more than föhn strength, drives the annual variability in föhn-induced melt. Long-term föhn-induced melt trends and evolution are attributable to seasonal changes in föhn occurrence, with increased occurrence in summer, and decreased occurrence in fall, winter, and early spring over the past 20 years.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Signatures on Lake And Wetland Size Distributions in Arctic Deltas

Abstract Understanding how thermokarst lakes on arctic river deltas will respond to rapid warming is critical for projecting how carbon storage and fluxes will change in those vulnerable environments. Yet, this understanding is currently limited partly due to the complexity of disentangling significant interannual variability from the longer‐term surface water signatures on the landscape, using the short summertime window of optical spaceborne observations. Here, we rigorously separate perennial lakes from ephemeral wetlands on 12 arctic deltas and report distinct size distributions and climate trends for the two waterbodies. Namely, we find a lognormal distribution for lakes and a power‐law distribution for wetlands, consistent with a simple proportionate growth model and inundated topography, respectively. Furthermore, while no trend with temperature is found for wetlands, a statistically significant decreasing trend of mean lake size with warmer temperatures is found, attributed to colder deltas having deeper and thicker permafrost preserving larger lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds?

It is predicted by both theory and models that high-altitude clouds will occur higher in the atmosphere as a result of climate warming. This produces a positive longwave feedback and has a substantial impact on the Earth's response to warming. This effect is well established by theory, but is poorly constrained by observations, and there is large spread in the feedback strength between climate models. For this study, we use the NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) to examine changes in Cloud-Top-Height (CTH). MISR uses a stereo-imaging technique to determine CTH. This approach is geometric in nature and insensitive to instrument calibration and therefore is well suited for trend analysis and studies of variability on long time scales. In this article we show that the current MISR record does have an increase in CTH for high-altitude cloud over Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans but not over Tropical or the Northern Hemisphere (NH) oceans. We use climate model simulations to estimate when MISR might be expected to detect trends in CTH, that include the NH. The analysis suggests that according to the models used in this study MISR should detect changes over the SH ocean earlier than the NH, and if the model predictions are correct should be capable of detecting a trend over the Tropics and NH very soon (3–10 years). This result highlights the potential value of a follow-on mission to MISR, which no longer maintains a fixed equator crossing time and is unlikely to be making observations for another 10 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction

Floods and heavy precipitation have disruptive impacts worldwide, but their historical variability remains only partially understood at the global scale. This article aims at reducing this knowledge gap by jointly analyzing seasonal maxima of streamflow and precipitation at more than 3,000 stations over a 100‐year period. The analysis is based on Hidden Climate Indices (HCIs). Like standard climate indices (e.g., Nino 3.4, NAO), HCIs are used as covariates explaining the temporal variability of data, but unlike them, HCIs are estimated from the data. In this work, a distinction is made between common HCIs, that affect both heavy precipitation and floods, and specific HCIs, that exclusively affect one or the other. Overall, HCIs do not show noticeable autocorrelation, but some are affected by noticeable trends. In particular, strong and wide‐ranging trends are identified in precipitation‐specific HCIs, while trends affecting flood‐specific HCIs are weaker and have more localized effects. A probabilistic model is then derived to link HCIs and large‐scale atmospheric variables (pressure, wind, temperature) and to reconstruct HCIs since 1836 using the 20CRv3 reanalysis. In turn this allows estimating the probability of occurrence of floods and heavy precipitation at the global scale. This 180‐year reconstruction highlights flood hot‐spots and hot‐moments in the distant past, well before the establishment of perennial monitoring networks. Finally, the approach presented in this study is generic and paves the way for an improved characterization of historical variability by making a better use of long but highly irregular station data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Signal in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Today and Near Future

This manuscript discusses the challenges in detecting and attributing recently observed trends in the Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and the epistemic uncertainty we face in assessing future risk. We use synthetic storms downscaled from five CMIP5 models by the Columbia HAZard model (CHAZ), and directly simulated storms from high-resolution climate models. We examine three aspects of recent TC activity: the upward trend and multi-decadal oscillation of the annual frequency, the increase in storm wind intensity, and the decrease in forward speed. Some data sets suggest that these trends and oscillation are forced while others suggest that they can be explained by natural variability. Projections under warming climate scenarios also show a wide range of possibilities, especially for the annual frequencies, which increase or decrease depending on the choice of moisture variable used in the CHAZ model and on the choice of climate model. The uncertainties in the annual frequency lead to epistemic uncertainties in TC risk assessment. Here, we investigate the potential for reduction of these epistemic uncertainties through a statistical practice, namely likelihood analysis. We find that historical observations are more consistent with the simulations with increasing frequency than those with decreasing frequency, but we are not able to rule out the latter. We argue that the most rational way to treat epistemic uncertainty is to consider all outcomes contained in the results. In the context of risk assessment, since the results contain possible outcomes in which TC risk is increasing, this view implies that the risk is increasing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in the Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recently observed high values of the AA. In this report, we identify the main reason for this difficulty to be the CMIP6 models overestimate of the mean global temperature trend since about 1990. The largest values of the AA are observed in winter and spring. A sharp AA peak in 1987 spring was caused by a peak in the Arctic temperature trend occurring at the same time as a dip in the trend of mean global temperature. The winter AA has increased almost monotonically since 1990. Dividing the AA between the Arctic land and ocean areas shows that the ocean area makes a larger contribution to the AA. Our future projection of the AA suggests an increasing AA for about the next decade, followed by a slow decrease to about 3.5 in the 2050s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of top-down and bottom-up global terrestrial respiration estimates and their mismatch with model simulations

Terrestrial respiration is one of the most poorly understood processes in the global carbon cycle, making respiration predictions uncertain. However, expanding observations and machine learning approaches have led to a proliferation of estimates. We compiled total ecosystem and heterotrophic respiration estimates derived from top-down atmospheric inversions and bottom-up upscaling of ecosystem observations and compared them with dynamic vegetation models (DGVM) simulations over the 1980-2020 period. Our analysis revealed a convergence in mean annual global total ecosystem respiration estimates between top-down 97.1 (± SD 6.8) PgC yr-1 and bottom-up 98.5 (+/-13.4) PgC yr-1, which were both significantly lower than the ensemble mean from DGVMs estimates 133.7 (±4.7) PgC yr-1. We also found similar temporal trends between top-down estimates with a mean of 0.075 (±0.05) PgC yr-2, and bottom-up estimates of 0.05 (±0.05) PgC yr-2, which were 5 to 7 times smaller than the ensemble mean trend of 0.34 PgC yr-2 simulated by DGVMs. Global heterotrophic respiration showed much less agreement, ranging from top-down estimates of 42.7 (±4.0) PgC yr-1 to bottom-up estimates of 51.5 (±4.0) PgC yr-1 and a significantly larger ensemble model mean estimate of 60.8 PgC yr-1 (±1.9). The temporal trends in observation-based bottom-up estimates of heterotrophic respiration of 0.03 PgC yr-2 were five times lower than the model ensemble mean 0.15 PgC yr-2. Large regional disagreements in heterotrophic respiration estimates and simulations were evident in tropical and boreal latitudes. Therefore, improved regional and heterotrophic respiration estimates are necessary to reduce uncertainties regarding the future vulnerability of soil carbon.

Ballantyne, Ashley↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cyclic Background Noise Variations on Infrasound Microbarometers From Micrometeorology and Human Activity

Infrasound microbarometers deployed on the Earth's surface capture pressure fluctuations and acoustic signatures, revealing trends in surface wind speed and cycles in ambient sound. Previous studies investigated wind noise trends at quarter day resolution and urban acoustic background variations on hourly to weekly scales. Cyclic variations at sub-hourly resolution over local distances remain unaddressed. We show that topography-driven micrometeorology impacts diurnal background noise levels below 10 Hz. Anthropogenic noise occurs over daily and weekly cycles, with inputs from traffic, ventilation systems, and power lines. These noise patterns vary at stations spaced less than a kilometer apart. We observe these phenomena by using a circular spectrogram to visualize frequency trends over a periodic temporal scale. This study demonstrates that infrasound microbarometer deployments can highlight localized wind patterns and time scales of human activity. The results suggest that future microbarometer deployments may benefit from site noise surveys before selecting final sensor locations.

Malach, Amrit Kaur [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA),↗
DOE OSTI2020

High frequency atomic tunneling yields ultralow and glass-like thermal conductivity in chalcogenide single crystals

Crystalline solids exhibiting glass-like thermal conductivity have attracted substantial attention both for fundamental interest and applications such as thermoelectrics. In most crystals, the competition of phonon scattering by anharmonic interactions and crystalline imperfections leads to a non-monotonic trend of thermal conductivity with temperature. Defect-free crystals that exhibit the glassy trend of low thermal conductivity with a monotonic increase with temperature are desirable because they are intrinsically thermally insulating while retaining useful properties of perfect crystals. However, this behavior is rare, and its microscopic origin remains unclear. Here, we report the observation of ultralow and glass-like thermal conductivity in a hexagonal perovskite chalcogenide single crystal, BaTiS 3 , despite its highly symmetric and simple primitive cell. Elastic and inelastic scattering measurements reveal the quantum mechanical origin of this unusual trend. A two-level atomic tunneling system exists in a shallow double-well potential of the Ti atom and is of sufficiently high frequency to scatter heat-carrying phonons up to room temperature. While atomic tunneling has been invoked to explain the low-temperature thermal conductivity of solids for decades, our study establishes the presence of sub-THz frequency tunneling systems even in high-quality, electrically insulating single crystals, leading to anomalous transport properties well above cryogenic temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences—have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can—on its own—appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Citywide indoor air sampling mirrors wastewater and clinical for environmental surveillance of respiratory viruses

Wastewater surveillance of respiratory pathogens can provide timely estimates of viral activity and disease trends in a population. Indoor air surveillance could be used similarly with some advantages but remains largely unvalidated at the community -scale. Here, an indoor air surveillance program was employed as part of public health environmental surveillance in Chicago, Illinois, USA. Ten air samplers were placed in healthcare and congregate living settings across the city. Weekly air samples were evaluated for influenza A, influenza B, respiratory syncytial virus, and SARS -CoV-2 over two respiratory virus seasons (2023 -2025). Citywide, aggregated air sample positivity and viral load were closely correlated with local clinical case and wastewater surveillance data across all respiratory viruses. Virus trends in air data often preceded clinical and wastewater, although this varied across pathogens and respiratory virus seasons. Further, whole -genome sequencing of SARS -CoV-2 showed close correlation of variant proportions across all datasets. At the building -scale, air samples obtained from a single sampling device provided efficient respiratory virus surveillance, with respiratory pathogen levels mirroring citywide clinical surveillance data. These data demonstrate that air surveillance can provide respiratory virus case and variant trend data at a building or community -scale, serving as an alternative or complementary tool for public health environmental surveillance.

Wilton, Rosemarie↗
DOE OSTI2022

Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming

Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗