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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Fast-responding short circuit protection system with self-reset for use in circuit supplied by DC power

A short circuit protection system includes an inductor, a switch, a voltage sensing circuit, and a controller. The switch and inductor are electrically coupled to be in series with one another. A voltage sensing circuit is coupled across the switch and the inductor. A controller, coupled to the voltage sensing circuit and the switch, opens the switch when a voltage at the output terminal of the inductor transitions from above a threshold voltage to below the threshold voltage. The controller closes the switch when the voltage at the output terminal of the inductor transitions from below the threshold voltage to above the threshold voltage.

Burns, Bradley M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Gas Composition Sensing Using Carbon Nanotube Arrays

This innovation is a lightweight, small sensor for inert gases that consumes a relatively small amount of power and provides measurements that are as accurate as conventional approaches. The sensing approach is based on generating an electrical discharge and measuring the specific gas breakdown voltage associated with each gas present in a sample. An array of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in a substrate is connected to a variable-pulse voltage source. The CNT tips are spaced appropriately from the second electrode maintained at a constant voltage. A sequence of voltage pulses is applied and a pulse discharge breakdown threshold voltage is estimated for one or more gas components, from an analysis of the current-voltage characteristics. Each estimated pulse discharge breakdown threshold voltage is compared with known threshold voltages for candidate gas components to estimate whether at least one candidate gas component is present in the gas. The procedure can be repeated at higher pulse voltages to estimate a pulse discharge breakdown threshold voltage for a second component present in the gas. The CNTs in the gas sensor have a sharp (low radius of curvature) tip; they are preferably multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) or carbon nanofibers (CNFs), to generate high-strength electrical fields adjacent to the tips for breakdown of the gas components with lower voltage application and generation of high current. The sensor system can provide a high-sensitivity, low-power-consumption tool that is very specific for identification of one or more gas components. The sensor can be multiplexed to measure current from multiple CNT arrays for simultaneous detection of several gas components.

Li, Jing↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modelling the Future Hydroclimatology of the Lower Fraser River and its Impacts on the Spawning Migration Survival of Sockeye Salmon

Short episodic high temperature events can be lethal for migrating adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). We downscaled temperatures for the Fraser River, British Columbia to evaluate the impact of climate warming on the frequency of exceeding thermal thresholds associated with salmon migratory success. Alarmingly, a modest 1.0 C increase in average summer water temperature over 100 years (1981-2000 to 2081-2100) tripled the number of days per year exceeding critical salmonid thermal thresholds (i.e. 19.0 C). Refined thresholds for two populations (Gates Creek and Weaver Creek) of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were defined using physiological constraint models based on aerobic scope. While extreme temperatures leading to complete aerobic collapse remained unlikely under our warming scenario, both populations were increasingly forced to migrate upriver at reduced levels of aerobic performance (e.g. in 80% of future simulations, => 90% of salmon encountered temperatures exceeding population specific thermal optima for maximum aerobic scope; T(sub opt)) = 16.3 C for Gates Creek and T(sub sopt)=14.5 C for Weaver Creek). Assuming recent changes to river entry timing persist, we also predicted dramatic increases in the probability of freshwater mortality for Weaver Creek salmon due to reductions in aerobic, and general physiological, performance (e.g. in 42% of future simulations =>50% of Weaver Creek fish exceeded temperature thresholds associated with 0 - 60% of maximum aerobic scope). Potential for adaptation via directional selection on run-timing was more evident for the Weaver Creek population. Early entry Weaver Creek fish experienced 25% (range: 15 - 31%) more suboptimal temperatures than late entrants, compared with an 8% difference (range: 0 - 17%) between early and late Gates Creek fish. Our results emphasize the need to consider daily temperature variability in association with population-specific differences in behaviour and physiological constraints when forecasting impacts of climate change on migratory survival of aquatic species.

Hague, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Precipitation Detection over Various Surfaces from Passive Microwave Imagers and Sounders

During the middle part of this decade a wide variety of passive microwave imagers and sounders will be unified in the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission to provide a common basis for frequent (3 hr), global precipitation monitoring. The ability of these sensors to detect precipitation by discerning it from non-precipitating background depends upon the channels available and characteristics of the surface and atmosphere. This study quantifies the minimum detectable precipitation rate and fraction of precipitation detected for four representative instruments (TMI, GMI, AMSU-A, and AMSU-B) that will be part of the GPM constellation. Observations for these instruments were constructed from equivalent channels on the SSMIS instrument on DMSP satellites F16 and F17 and matched to precipitation data from NOAA's National Mosaic and QPE (NMQ) during 2009 over the continuous United States. A variational optimal estimation retrieval of non-precipitation surface and atmosphere parameters was used to determine the consistency between the observed brightness temperatures and these parameters, with high cost function values shown to be related to precipitation. The minimum detectable precipitation rate, defined as the lowest rate for which probability of detection exceeds 50%, and the detected fraction of precipitation, are reported for each sensor, surface type (ocean, coast, bare land, snow cover) and precipitation type (rain, mix, snow). The best sensors over ocean and bare land were GMI (0.22 mm/hr minimum threshold and 90% of precipitation detected) and AMSU (0.26 mm/hr minimum threshold and 81% of precipitation detected), respectively. Over coasts (0.74 mm/hr threshold and 12% detected) and snow-covered surfaces (0.44 mm/hr threshold and 23% detected), AMSU again performed best but with much lower detection skill, whereas TMI had no skill over these surfaces. The sounders (particularly over water) benefited from the use of re-analysis data (vs. climatology) to set the a-priori atmospheric state and all instruments benefit from the use of a conditional snow cover emissivity database over land. It is recommended that real-time sources of these data be used in the operational GPM precipitation algorithms.

GPM↗
NASA NTRS2016

Light Diffraction by Large Amplitude Ultrasonic Waves in Liquids

Light diffraction from ultrasound, which can be used to investigate nonlinear acoustic phenomena in liquids, is reported for wave amplitudes larger than that typically reported in the literature. Large amplitude waves result in waveform distortion due to the nonlinearity of the medium that generates harmonics and produces asymmetries in the light diffraction pattern. For standing waves with amplitudes above a threshold value, subharmonics are generated in addition to the harmonics and produce additional diffraction orders of the incident light. With increasing drive amplitude above the threshold a cascade of period-doubling subharmonics are generated, terminating in a region characterized by a random, incoherent (chaotic) diffraction pattern. To explain the experimental results a toy model is introduced, which is derived from traveling wave solutions of the nonlinear wave equation corresponding to the fundamental and second harmonic standing waves. The toy model reduces the nonlinear partial differential equation to a mathematically more tractable nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The model predicts the experimentally observed cascade of period-doubling subharmonics terminating in chaos that occurs with increasing drive amplitudes above the threshold value. The calculated threshold amplitude is consistent with the value estimated from the experimental data.

Adler, Laszlo↗
NASA NTRS2018

Determination of Cross-Sectional Area of Focused Picosecond Gaussian Laser Beam

Measurement of the waist diameter of a focused Gaussian-beam at the 1/e(sup 2) intensity, also referred to as spot size, is key to determining the fluence in laser processing experiments. Spot size measurements are also helpful to calculate the threshold energy and threshold fluence of a given material. This work reports an application of a conventional method, by analyzing single laser ablated spots for different laser pulse energies, to determine the cross-sectional area of a focused Gaussian-beam, which has a nominal pulse width of approx. 10 ps. Polished tungsten was used as the target material, due to its low surface roughness and low ablation threshold, to measure the beam waist diameter. From the ablative spot measurements, the ablation threshold fluence of the tungsten substrate was also calculated.

Ledesma, Rodolfo↗
NASA NTRS2017

Detection of Vegetation Trends in Highly Variable Environments After Grazing Exclusion in Mongolia

Aims: Environmental variability (e.g. in precipitation) has a large effect on vegetation dynamics, and this often makes it difficult to assess the recovery of vegetation after a disturbance. In this study, we assessed vegetation recovery trends in response to grazing exclusion while considering for the annual environmental variability. Location: Two regions with highly variable precipitation: a steppe near Mandalgobi, in Mongolia's Central Gobi province, and a desert steppe near Bulgan, in Mongolia's South Gobi province. Methods: Changes in vegetation were observed along grazing gradients at the above two sites, and vegetation thresholds were identified. We established reference plots in pre-threshold areas along the grazing gradients. We removed the impact of livestock grazing at various locations along the grazing gradients by establishing exclosures, and investigated vegetation from 2005 to 2013. We developed a smoothed hierarchical model within a Bayesian framework, and examined the effect of grazing exclusion on vegetation, focusing especially on the extent of grass cover recovery. In addition, we compared soil nutrient conditions in the reference plots and inside and outside each exclosure along the grazing gradients. Results: Temporal trends in the cover of perennial grass in each plot inside and outside of the exclosures largely coincided, irrespective of grazing intensity, and exclosure had no effect (Bulgan) or a negative effect (Mandalgobi) on vegetation recovery. Soil nutrient content was not significantly affected by exclosure at a given distance from the grazing source, but decreased significantly with decreasing grazing intensity. Thus, recovery of the land from a post-threshold state may not be apparent even after 9 yr of grazing exclusion in environments with highly variable precipitation. Conclusion: The effect of exclosure duration on perennial grass cover was limited, even after controlling for environmental variability. Once a vegetation threshold has been crossed, merely removing livestock from the landscape may not be sufficient for that area to recover.

Bayesian statistics;Drought;Environmental variabil↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remaining Flying Time Prediction Implementing Battery Prognostics Framework for Electric UAV's

In this paper the problem of building trust in the online safety prediction of an fixed wing small electric unmanned aerial vehicles (e-UAV) for remaining flying time is addressed. A series of flight tests are described to verify the performance of the remaining flying time prediction algorithm. The estimate of remaining flying time is used to activate an alarm when the predicted remaining time falls below a threshold of two minutes. This updates the pilot to transition to the landing sequence of the flight profile. A second alarm is activated when the battery state of charge (SOC) falls below a specified safety limit threshold. This SOC threshold is the point at which the battery energy reserve would no longer safely support enough aborted landing attempts. During the test flights, the motor system is operated with the same predefined timed airspeed profile for each test. To test the robustness of the developed prediction algorithm, partial tests were performed with and remaining were performed without a simulated power train fault. To simulate a partial power train fault in the e-UAV the pilot engages a resistor bank at a specified time during the test flight. The flying time prediction system is agnostic of the pilot's activation of the fault and must adapt to the vehicle's state. The time at which the limit threshold on battery SOC is reached, it is then used to measure the accuracy of the remaining flying time predictions. This is demonstrated through comparing results from two battery models being developed. Accuracy requirements for the alarms are considered and the results discussed.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impairment of Human Ocular Tracking with Low-Dose Alcohol

Previous studies have documented adverse effects of alcohol on oculomotor performance. For example, moderate-dose alcohol (yielding a Blood Alcohol Concentration or BAC of 0.04-0.1%) has been shown to decrease steady-state pursuit gain (Fransson et al., 2010, Clin Neurophysiol, 121(12): 2134; Moser et al., 1998, J Neurol, 245(8): 542; Roche & King, 2010, Psychopharmacology, 212(1): 33), to increase saccade latency (Moser et al., 1998, J Neurol, 245(8): 542; Roche & King, 2010, Psychopharmacology, 212(1): 33), to decrease peak saccadic velocity (Fransson et al., 2010, Clin Neurophysiol, 121(12): 2134; Roche & King, 2010, Psychopharmacology, 212(1): 33), and to increase the frequency of catch-up saccades (Moser et al., 1998, J Neurol, 245(8): 542). Here, we administered two doses of ethanol on different days, yielding moderate (0.06%) and low (0.02%) levels of initial BAC, to examine the effects on human ocular tracking over BACs ranging from 0.00 to 0.07%. Twelve subjects (8 females) participated in a 5-day study. Three days of at-home measurements of daily activity and sleep were monitored, followed by two laboratory days where, ~5 hours after awakening, we administered one of the two possible single doses of alcohol. Using a previously published paradigm (Liston & Stone, 2014, J Vis, 14(14): 12), we measured oculomotor performance multiple times throughout the day with three pre-dosing baseline runs and bi-hourly post-dosing test runs until the subject recorded a BAC of 0.00% for two hours. BAC was measured before each run using an Alco-Sensor IV breathalyzer (Intoximeters, Inc., St. Louis, MO). For each of the oculometric measures, for each subject, we computed the within-subject % deviation for each test run from their baseline averaged across their three pre-dosing runs. We then averaged the data across subjects in 0.01% BAC bins. Finally, we used linear regression to compute the slope and x-intercept (threshold) of the mean binned % deviation as a function of BAC. We found that pursuit initiation was impaired at very low BAC levels, with significant (p < 0.002) linear trends in latency (+1.3%/0.01%BAC) and initial acceleration (-4.6%/0.01%BAC) with extrapolated absolute thresholds at or below 0.01% BAC. We also found that steady-state tracking was impaired showing significant (p < 0.002) linear trends in gain (- 3.8%/0.01%BAC) and catch-up saccade amplitude (+9.1%/0.01%BAC), again with extrapolated absolute thresholds around 0.01% BAC. We also found a significant (p < 0.02) increase in pursuit direction noise (+9.8%/0.01%BAC) with an extrapolated absolute threshold below 0.01% BAC. Many aspects of ocular tracking are impaired in a dose-dependent manner beginning at a BAC level around 0.01%, with significant effects at levels lower than previously reported and up to 8-times lower than the legal limit for driving in most states.

human performance↗
NASA NTRS2018

New Neural Network Cloud Mask Algorithm Based on Radiative Transfer Simulations

Cloud detection and screening constitute critically important first steps required to derive many satellite data products. Traditional threshold-based cloud mask algorithms require a complicated design process and fine tuning for each sensor, and they have difficulties over areas partially covered with snow/ice. Exploiting advances in machine learning techniques and radiative transfer modeling of coupled environmental systems, we have developed a new, threshold-free cloud mask algorithm based on a neural network classifier driven by extensive radiative transfer simulations. Statistical validation results obtained by using collocated CALIOP and MODIS data show that its performance is consistent over different ecosystems and significantly better than the MODIS Cloud Mask (MOD35 C6) during the winter seasons over snow-covered areas in the mid-latitudes. Simulations using a reduced number of satellite channels also show satisfactory results, indicating its flexibility to be configured for different sensors. Comparedto threshold-based methods and previous machine-learning approaches, this new cloud mask (i) does not rely on thresholds, (ii) needs fewer satellite channels, (iii) has superior performance during winter seasons in mid-latitude areas, and (iv) can easily be applied to different sensors.

cloud mask algorithms↗
NASA NTRS2016

Real-Time Early Warning Techniques

Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current one-sensor, one-indicator threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.

Javorsek, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Enhancing Flight Test Safety with Real-Time Early Warning Techniques

Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current "one-sensor, one-indicator" threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.

Javorsek, Daniel, II↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts

Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.

DeFries, Ruth↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evidence for Arcing on the International Space Station Solar Arrays

The International Space Station (ISS) is powered by a set of 160 V photovoltaic arrays (PVA) in the US sector. Arcing thresholds for the ISS PVAs measured in the laboratory are shown to vary from -210 V to -457 V depending on the ambient plasma density, where low arcing threshold occurs at high plasma densities. Arcing of ISS PVAs on-orbit is unlikely under normal operating conditions. The net potential of a solar cell relative to space depends on the position of the cell within a string, the (vxB)•L contribution to the potential at the location of the cell, and the frame potential of ISS due to solar array charging. Net potentials on a cell will reach the arcing threshold only on rare occasions. However, the situation changes when damaged PVA strings are considered. Open circuit strings can exhibit voltages exceeding -300 V when the strings are shunted. Under these conditions the local potential on the damaged string can easily exceed arcing thresholds at the low end of the -210 V to -457 V range for ISS PVAs. Because arcing to space on the array will remove some fraction of the net negative charge on the ISS, transient variations in the frame potential are expected during the electrostatic discharge events. We report a new class of transient ISS frame potential variations consistent with arcing on open strings using data from the ISS Floating Potential Measurement Unit’s Floating Potential Probe instrument.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Perceptual Attributes of eVTOL Noise Noticeability and Blend with Reference to the Ambient

In most prior laboratory research, studies of human response to aircraft and rotorcraft noise have emphasized annoyance ratings, usually as a function of level. Estimates of detection and noticeability have also been addressed, e.g. in surveys of community response. This presentation explores an alternative subjective criterion, based on an average threshold where trained subjects estimate the level at which a new auditory object (an eVTOL event) “blends” into the existing ambient, as an experimentally defined threshold of acceptance. Contrasting an annoyance rating, subjects rate the level at which sound is no more significant than any other sound source in ambient, with a prescribed attitude focusing on the acceptance of an inevitable new transportation source with positive attributes for the community. The approach utilizes manipulations of ambient type as an experimental variable, using spatially veridical recordings in the laboratory. In one example, the method of limits can be used for determining blend as a function of eVTOL level; other manipulations include the spatial trajectory of the eVTOL relative to the listener, and/or manipulations of its tonal spectra. It is likely that a “blend” threshold lies somewhere between a detection and annoyance threshold as a function of level.

urban air mobility↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Robustness of Semi-Superjunction 4H-SiC Power DMOSFETs to Single-Event Burnout from Heavy Ion Bombardment

We compare the failure mechanism and performance of a silicon carbide (SiC) semi-superjunction (semi-SJ) power DMOSFET against pure SJ and conventional DMOSFET when struck by a single heavy ion. The Single-Event Burnout (SEB) failure mechanism was identified as the thermal runaway from second breakdown resulting in mesoplasma formation. The semi-SJ design shifts the mesoplasma location from the drift/substrate interface seen in the control device structures to a location along the center of the P-pillar and closer towards the DMOSFET surface, thus significantly improving the SEB threshold voltage. The SEB threshold voltage varies with pillar width and ratio of pillar thickness to drift layer thickness. A maximum value of SEB threshold voltage is reached when the pillar to drift layer ratio is 0.9 and the pillar width is 2.4 μm. The semi-SJ SEB/breakdown voltage ratio is 100% and 13% higher than the pure SJ and conventional DMOSFET, respectively. Using a new figure of merit (FOM), which accounts for the tradeoff between SEB threshold voltage and on-state performance, we find that the SiC semi-SJ DMOSFET achieves a FOM that is 1.8 and 8 times higher than SJ and conventional DMOSFET, respectively, making the semi-SJ a competitive candidate for radiation hardened applications.

SiC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Path to Improving Simulated Properties of Low Clouds over the Beaufort Sea using Airborne In Situ Observations of Subgrid-Scale Variability

Arctic low clouds influence the evolution of the Arctic system through their effects on radiative fluxes, boundary layer mixing, stability, turbulence, humidity, and precipitation. Unfortunately, atmospheric models and retrospective analysis (reanalysis) products struggle to accurately simulate the occurrence and properties of low clouds in the Arctic. One of the main reasons for this problem are the possible unrealistic assumptions that models/reanalyses make about the subgrid-scale (SGS) variability of meteorological properties, as well as the relationship between SGS variability and grid-scale (GS) cloud properties. We utilize cloud and thermodynamic data of low level (primarily) liquid clouds collected from two aircraft campaigns conducted over the Beaufort Sea to better understand and characterize this problem. Examining data from the September 2014 Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) airborne campaign reveals that GS cloud water variability is closely related with SGS distribution of total water (i.e. water vapor + cloud water). Multiple models/reanalyses use SGS supersaturated total water (relative to GS saturation) as a threshold for partitioning available water for condensation, and indeed we find significant correlation between GS cloud water and SGS supersaturation. However, we also find that the assumption of a static threshold of 100% saturation to be unrealistic. Empirical calculations from the ARISE data show a large sensitivity of this threshold to GS relative humidity, and so a microphysical parameterization allowing the threshold to vary according to GS thermodynamic properties may result in more realistic GS cloud water values. Finally, to determine how sensitive the ARISE-derived results are to that particular campaign, we include additional data from the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)–Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE) conducted in 1998. The inclusion of the second dataset will help with demonstrating the robustness of the results and their utility in improving the representation of Arctic clouds in models and reanalyses.

J Brant Dodson↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Temporal and Spatial Development of dB/dt for Substorms

Ground induced currents (GICs) due to space weather are a threat to high voltage power transmission systems. However, knowledge of ground conductivity is the largest source of errors in the determination of GICs. A good proxy for GICs is dB/dt obtained from the Bx and By components of the magnetic field fluctuations. It is known that dB/dt values associated with magnetic storms can reach dangerous levels for power transmission systems. On the other hand, it is not uncommon for dB/dt values associated with substorms to exceed prior Pulkkinen and Molinski critical thresholds of 1.5 nT/s and 5 nT/s, respectively, and the temporal and spatial changes of the dB/dt associated with substorms, unlike storms, are not well understood. Using two dimensional maps of dB/dt over North America and Greenland derived from the spherical elementary currents, we investigate the temporal and spatial change of dB/dt for both a single substorm event and a two dimensional superposed epoch analysis of many substorms. Both the single event and the statistical analysis shows a sudden increase of dB/dt at substorm onset followed by an expansion poleward, westward, and eastward after the onset during the expansion phase. The area of dB/dt values exceeding the two critical thresholds from the initial onset dB/dt values showed little to no expansion equatorward. The temporal and spatial development of the dB/dt resembles the temporal and spatial change of the auroral emissions. Substorm values of dB/dt peak shortly after the auroral onset time and in at least one event exceeded 35 nT/s for a non-storm time substorm. In many of our 81 cases the area that exceeds the threshold of 1.5 nT/s is over several million square kilometers and after about 30 minutes the dB/dt values fall below the threshold level. These results address one of goals of the Space Weather Action Plan, which are to establish benchmarks for space weather events and improve modeling and prediction of their impacts on infrastructure. Plain language: The change in the ground magnetic field with respect to time (dB/dt) associated with magnetic storms (a large disturbance of the magnetic field of the earth) can reach dangerous levels for power transmission systems. On the other hand, substorms, which are a smaller more localized disturbance of the Earth’s magnetic field, are more common. It is not uncommon for substorm dB/dt values to also exceed dangerous levels and the temporal and spatial changes of the dB/dt associated with substorms, unlike storms, are not well understood. Our analysis shows a sudden increase of dB/dt at substorm onset, which peaks shortly after the start of the substorm, followed shortly after by an expansion northward, westward, and eastward after the onset.

ionospheric currents↗