Results for “testing statistics” — Page 38

NASA NTRS2013

Impact of Gender on Pharmocokinetics of Intranasal Scopolamine

Introduction: An intranasal gel dosage formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness (SMS), which is commonly experienced by astronauts during space missions. The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were evaluated under IND guidelines. Since information is lacking on the effect of gender on the PK of Scopolamine, we examined gender differences in PK parameters of INSCOP at three dose levels of 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg. Methods: Plasma scopolamine concentrations as a function of time data were collected from twelve normal healthy human subjects (6 male/6 female) who participated in a fully randomized double blind crossover study. The PK parameters were derived using WinNonlin. Covariate analysis of PK profiles was performed using NONMEN and statistically compared using a likelihood ratio test on the difference of objective function value (OFV). Statistical significance for covariate analysis was set at P<0.05(ΔOFV=3.84). Results: No significant difference in PK parameters between male and female subjects was observed with 0.1 and 0.2 mg doses. However, CL and Vd were significantly different between male and female subjects at the 0.4 mg dose. Results from population covariate modeling analysis indicate that a onecompartment PK model with first-order elimination rate offers best fit for describing INSCOP concentration-time profiles. The inclusion of sex as a covariate enhanced the model fitting (ΔOFV=-4.1) owing to the genderdependent CL and Vd differences after the 0.4 mg dose. Conclusion: Statistical modeling of scopolamine concentration-time data suggests gender-dependent pharmacokinetics of scopolamine at the high dose level of 0.4 mg. Clearance of the parent compound was significantly faster and the volume of distribution was significantly higher in males than in females, As a result, including gender as a covariate to the pharmacokinetic model of scopolamine offers the best fit for PK modeling of the drug at dose of 0.4 mg or higher.

Putcha, L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of atmospheric delay statistics from Deep Space Network arrays and nearby site test interferometers

UNKNOWN

"D'Addario, Larry", 'Finley, Susan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Mild Hypobaric Hypoxia on Visual Field Impairment

INTRODUCTION: The primary objective of the Exploration Atmosphere (EA) study is to validate a new prebreathe protocol necessary before exposure to a suited hypobaric environment during extravehicular activity (EVA) from a habitat ‘exploration atmosphere’ of 56.5kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2. Prebreathe protocols must be time and resource efficient while also controlling Decompression Sickness (DCS) risk to within acceptable limits. The habitat hypobaric exploration atmosphere also results in a mildly hypoxic environment (piO2 = 128mmHg). As a secondary objective of the EA study, we characterized the effects of 11-day exposure to a mild hypobaric hypoxic environment on visual performance. METHODS: Two, 11-day hypobaric chamber tests were performed (EA-1and EA-2, n=8 each) in NASA’s 20-foot chamber at Johnson Space Center where subjects lived in the exploration atmosphere. Subjects also underwent simulated 6-hour EVAs at 85% O2 and 29.6 kPa during EVA on days 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11. Visual acuity (VA), a measure of spatial resolution, and contrast sensitivity (CS), a measure of ability to distinguish ever finer increments of brightness, were assessed on non-EVA days by using gapped Landolt C testing. The luminance was controlled by using a booth, a light monitor, and a lighting rheostat. EA-1 data had revealed problems in lighting control impacting consistency of the data. Procedures were subsequently updated for the EA-2 test. RESULTS: EA-1 data revealed large variance and data recording errors and was removed from the analysis. One participant left the study at Test Day 3 during EA-2. EA-2 ANOVA results showed CS (mean change=0.010 logCSWeber) and VA (mean change, -0.016 logMAR) between pre-test and 11-day test phases; however, neither VA nor CS changes were statistically significant. There were non-statistically significant declines in VA across test phases. DISCUSSION: Overall, visual field performance did not exhibit clinically significant changes (3 lines or greater change in LogMar chart) during exposure to the mild hypoxic exploration atmosphere environment compared to pre-test baseline. The consistency and stability of VA data during EA-2 suggests that the mild hypobaric hypoxic environment did not cause clinically significant negative impacts to participants’ visual field performance.

Visual Acuity↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Mild Hypobaric Hypoxia on Visual Field Impairment

INTRODUCTION: The primary objective of the Exploration Atmosphere (EA) study is to validate a new prebreathe protocol necessary before exposure to a suited hypobaric environment during extravehicular activity (EVA) from a habitat ‘exploration atmosphere’ of 56.5kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2. Prebreathe protocols must be time and resource efficient while also controlling Decompression Sickness (DCS) risk to within acceptable limits. The habitat hypobaric exploration atmosphere also results in a mildly hypoxic environment (piO2 = 128mmHg). As a secondary objective of the EA study, we characterized the effects of 11-day exposure to a mild hypobaric hypoxic environment on visual performance. METHODS: Two, 11-day hypobaric chamber tests were performed (EA-1and EA-2, n=8 each) in NASA’s 20-foot chamber at Johnson Space Center where subjects lived in the exploration atmosphere. Subjects also underwent simulated 6-hour EVAs at 85% O2 and 29.6 kPa during EVA on days 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11. Visual acuity (VA), a measure of spatial resolution, and contrast sensitivity (CS), a measure of ability to distinguish ever finer increments of brightness, were assessed on non-EVA days by using gapped Landolt C testing. The luminance was controlled by using a booth, a light monitor, and a lighting rheostat. EA-1 data had revealed problems in lighting control impacting consistency of the data. Procedures were subsequently updated for the EA-2 test. RESULTS: EA-1 data revealed large variance and data recording errors and was removed from the analysis. One participant left the study at Test Day 3 during EA-2. EA-2 ANOVA results showed CS (mean change=0.010 logCSWeber) and VA (mean change, -0.016 logMAR) between pre-test and 11-day test phases; however, neither VA nor CS changes were statistically significant. There were non-statistically significant declines in VA across test phases. DISCUSSION: Overall, visual field performance did not exhibit clinically significant changes (3 lines or greater change in LogMar chart) during exposure to the mild hypoxic exploration atmosphere environment compared to pre-test baseline. The consistency and stability of VA data during EA-2 suggests that the mild hypobaric hypoxic environment did not cause clinically significant negative impacts to participants’ visual field performance.

Visual Acuity↗

NASA NTRS2006

Validating Coherence Measurements Using Aligned and Unaligned Coherence Functions

This paper describes a novel approach based on the use of coherence functions and statistical theory for sensor validation in a harsh environment. By the use of aligned and unaligned coherence functions and statistical theory one can test for sensor degradation, total sensor failure or changes in the signal. This advanced diagnostic approach and the novel data processing methodology discussed provides a single number that conveys this information. This number as calculated with standard statistical procedures for comparing the means of two distributions is compared with results obtained using Yuen's robust statistical method to create confidence intervals. Examination of experimental data from Kulite pressure transducers mounted in a Pratt & Whitney PW4098 combustor using spectrum analysis methods on aligned and unaligned time histories has verified the effectiveness of the proposed method. All the procedures produce good results which demonstrates how robust the technique is.

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton↗

DOE OSTI2017

Determination of He and D permeability of neutron-irradiated SiC tubes to examine the potential for release due to micro-cracking

Driven by the need to enlarge the safety margins of light water reactors in both design-basis and beyond-design-basis accident scenarios, the research and development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) has become an importance topic in the nuclear engineering and materials community. Continuous SiC fiber-reinforced SiC matrix ceramic composites are under consideration as a replacement for traditional zirconium alloy cladding owing to their high-temperature stability, chemical inertness, and exceptional irradiation resistance. Among the key technical feasibility issues, potential failure of the fission product containment due to probabilistic penetrating cracking has been identified as one of the two most critical feasibility issues, together with the radiolysisassisted hydrothermal corrosion of SiC. The experimental capability to evaluate the hermeticity of SiC-based claddings is an urgent need. In this report, we present the development of a comprehensive permeation testing station established in the Low Activation Materials Development and Analysis laboratory at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Preliminary results for the hermeticity evaluation of un-irradiated monolithic SiC tubes, uncoated and coated SiC/SiC composite tubes, and neutron-irradiated monolithic SiC tubes at room temperature are exhibited. The results indicate that this new permeation testing station is capable of evaluating the hermeticity of SiC-based tubes by determining the helium and deuterium permeation flux as a function of gas pressure at a high resolution of 8.07 x 10 -12 atm-cc/s for helium and 2.83 x 10 -12 atm-cc/s for deuterium, respectively. The detection limit of this system is sufficient to evaluate the maximum allowable helium leakage rate of lab-scale tubular samples, which is linearly extrapolated from the evaluation standard used for a commercial as-manufactured light water reactor fuel rod at room temperature. The un-irradiated monolithic SiC tube is hermetic, as is manifested by the un-detectable deuterium permeation flux at various feeding gas pressures. A large helium leakage rate was detected for the uncoated SiC/SiC composite tube exposed to atmosphere, indicating it is inherently not hermetic. The hermeticity of coated SiC/SiC composite tubes is strongly dependent on the coating materials and the preparation of the substrate SiC/SiC composite samples. To simulate the practical application environment, monolithic CVD SiC tubes were exposed to neutron irradiation at the High Flux Isotope Reactor under high heat flux from the internal surface to the external surface. Although finite element analysis and resonant ultrasound spectroscopy measurement indicated that the combined neutron irradiation and high heat flux gave rise to a high probability of cracking within the sample, the hermeticity evaluation of the tested sample still exhibited gas tightness, emphasizing that SiC cracking is inherently a statistical phenomenon. The developed permeation testing station is capable of measuring the gas permeation flux in the range of interest with full confidence based on the presented results. It is considered a critical pre- /post-irradiation examination technique to characterize SiC-based cladding materials in asreceived and irradiated states to aid the research and development of ATF.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1977

The vector classifier

A linear classifier is developed. The classifier algorithm derives, from the picture element (pixel) response values, the response values for a point (called footpoint) consisting of determined proportions of distinct and operator defined land surfaces. The algorithm decides whether the pixel contains the content of the defined surfaces by testing the footpoint to pixelpoint distance against an operator specified threshold value. The test can be either of statistical or geometric form. Those pixels which give a positive result to the test are subclassified according to the proportions of the distinct land surfaces. The practical characteristics of the classifier are discussed and the classification results achieved, in a number of test areas, are described. The artificial nature of the classifier assumptions relate to certain land surface conditions. Testing the suitability of the classifier for other conditions is discussed.

Mccloy, K. R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of Cable Harness Post-Installation Testing

The Cable Harness Post-Installation Testing Report was written in response to an action issued by the Ares Project Control Board (PCB). The action for the Ares I Avionics & Software Chief Engineer and the Avionics Integration and Vehicle Systems Test Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Manager in the Vehicle Integration Office was to develop a set of guidelines for electrical cable harnesses. Research showed that post-installation tests have been done since the Apollo era. For Ares I-X, the requirement for post-installation testing was removed to make it consistent with the avionics processes used on the Atlas V expendable launch vehicle. Further research for the report involved surveying government and private sector launch vehicle developers, military and commercial aircraft, spacecraft developers, and harness vendors. Responses indicated crewed launch vehicles and military aircraft perform post-installation tests. Key findings in the report were as follows: Test requirements identify damage, human-rated vehicles should be tested despite the identification of statistically few failures, data does not support the claim that post-installation testing damages the harness insulation system, and proper planning can reduce overhead associated with testing. The primary recommendation of the report is for the Ares projects to retain the practice of post-fabrication and post-installation cable harness testing.

King, M. S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flow Fields of Internally Mixed Exhaust Systems With External Plug For Supersonic Transport Applications

Commercial supersonic vehicles of the future will likely use engines with lower bypass ratios, where the design of the internal mixer will have a strong impact on the noise produced by the jet plume. Their exhaust systems may also feature external plugs to improve boattail angle for cruise performance at supersonic speeds. Currently there are no publicly available empirical noise models for such nozzle systems, and insight into their flow fields will help in creating these models. For those attempting to make large eddy simulations and other higher fidelity methods be their main prediction tool, the internally mixed exhaust system is also a good test case when going beyond simple single-stream jets. The turbulent flow statistics of several configurations previously tested for noise and shocks have been measured for flow conditions that can be used in development of empirical models and validating scale-resolving prediction tools. These measurements are presented and briefly analyzed for insights into the noise impacts from the flow impacts observed.

Turbulence, Jets, Particle Image velocimetry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flow Fields of Internally Mixed Exhaust Systems With External Plug For Supersonic Transport Applications

Commercial supersonic vehicles of the future will likely use engines with lower bypass ratios, where the design of the internal mixer will have a strong impact on the noise produced by the jet plume. Their exhaust systems may also feature external plugs to improve boattail angle for cruise performance at supersonic speeds. Currently there are no publicly available empirical noise models for such nozzle systems, and insight into their flow fields will help in creating these models. For those attempting to make large eddy simulations and other higher fidelity methods be their main prediction tool, the internally mixed exhaust system is also a good test case when going beyond simple single-stream jets. The turbulent flow statistics of several configurations previously tested for noise and shocks have been measured for flow conditions that can be used in development of empirical models and validating scale-resolving prediction tools. These measurements are presented and briefly analyzed for insights into the noise impacts from the flow impacts observed.

Fluid Mechanics and Thermodynamics↗

NASA NTRS1993

Dipole and quadrupole tests of the isotropy of gamma-ray burst locations

Dipole and quadrupole tests of the isotropy of locations on the sphere are discussed. The statistics (cos theta), the dipole moment to the Galactic center, and mean (sin-squared b - 1/3), the quadrupole moment about the Galactic plane, can be used to search for significant anisotropies in galactic coordinates. Such coordinate-system-based tests are the most powerful tests of dipole and quadrupole anisotropies in the particular coordinate system. Two statistics which have not been previously applied to gamma-ray burst data are described. The Rayleigh-Watson statistic measures the size of the dipole moment of the locations and the Bingham statistic measures the deviation of the eigenvalues of a quadrupole-like matrix from the values expected for isotropy. Tests based upon these two statistics search for dipole and quadrupole moments in spherical location data in a coordinate-system-independent, and thus model-independent, manner. They can detect an anisotropy in any direction and yield an analytic statistical significance to any detected anisotropy. The statistical tests are demonstrated herein using a variety of data sets.

Briggs, Michael S.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Statistical analysis of the Nb 3 Sn strand production for the ITER toroidal field coils

The ITER toroidal field (TF) strand procurement initiated the largest Nb 3 Sn superconducting strand production hitherto. The industrial-scale production started in Japan in 2008 and finished in summer 2015. Six ITER partners (so-called Domestic Agencies, or DAs) are in charge of the procurement and involved eight different strand suppliers all over the world, of which four are using the bronze route (BR) process and four the internal-tin (IT) process. In total more than 500 tons have been produced including excess material covering losses during the conductor manufacturing process, in particular the cabling. The procurement is based on a functional specification where the main strand requirements like critical current, hysteresis losses, Cu ratio and residual resistance ratio are specified but not the strand production process or layout. We introduce the analysis on the data acquired during the quality control (QC) process that was carried out to ensure the same conductor performance requirements are met by the different strand suppliers regardless of strand design. The strand QC is based on 100% billet testing and on applying statistical process control (SPC) limits. Throughout the production, samples adjacent to the strand pieces tested by the suppliers are cross-checked ('verified') by their respective DAs reference labs. The level of verification was lowered from 100% at the beginning of the procurement progressively to approximately 25% during the final phase of production. Based on the complete dataset of the TF strand production, an analysis of the SPC limits of the critical strand parameters is made and the related process capability indices are calculated. In view of the large-scale production and costs, key manufacturing parameters such as billet yield, number of breakages and piece-length distribution are also discussed. Furthermore, the results are compared among all the strand suppliers, focusing on the difference between BR and IT processes. Following the completion of the largest Nb 3 Sn strand production, our experience gained from monitoring the execution of the QC activities and from auditing the results from the measurements is summarised for future superconducting strand material procurement activities.

Vostner, A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Evaluation of SLAR and thematic mapper MSS data for forest cover mapping using computer-aided analysis techniques

Several possibilities were considered for defining the data set in which the same test areas could be used for each of the four different spatial resolutions being evaluated. The LARSYS CLUSTER was used to sort the vectors into spectral classes to reduce the within-spectral class variability in an effort to develop training statistics. A data quality test was written to determine the basic signal to noise characteristics within the data set being used. Because preliminary analysis of the LANDSAT MSS data revealed the presence of high cirrus clouds, other data sets are being sought.

Hoffer, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Rolling-element fatigue life of AISI M-50 and 18-4-1 balls

Rolling element fatigue studies were conducted with AISI M-50, EFR 18-4-1, and VAR 18-4-1. Groups of 12.7 mm (1/2-in) diameter balls of each material were tested in the five ball fatigue tester. Test conditions included a load of 1540 N (347 lbf) giving a maximum Hertz stress of 5520 MPa (800 000 psi), a shaft speed of 10,700 rpm, and a contact angle of 30 deg. Tests were run at a race temperature of 339 K (150 F) with a type 2 ester lubricant. The rolling element fatigue life of AISI M-50 was not significantly different from that of EFR 18-4-1 or VAR 18-4-1 based on a statistical comparison of the test results.

Parker, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Colonoscopy Screening in the US Astronaut Corps

BACKGROUND: Historically, colonoscopy screenings for astronauts have been conducted to ensure that astronauts are in good health for space missions. Recently this historical data has been identified as being useful for developing an occupational surveillance requirement. It can be used to assess overall colon health and to have a point of reference for future tests in current and former astronauts, as well as to follow-up and track rates of colorectal cancer and polyps. These rates can be compared to military and other terrestrial populations. In 2003, the active astronaut colonoscopy requirements changed to require less frequent colonoscopies. Since polyp removal during a colonoscopy is an intervention that prevents the polyp from potentially developing into cancer, the procedure decreases the individual's risk for colon cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the possible effect of increased follow-up times between colonoscopies on the number and severity of polyps identified during the procedures among both current and former NASA astronauts. Initial results and forward work regarding astronaut colonoscopy screenings will be presented. METHODS: A retrospective study of all colonoscopy procedures performed on NASA astronauts between 1962 and 2015 (both during active career and retirement) was conducted by review of the JSC Clinic Electronic Medical Record and Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) database for colonoscopy screening procedures and pathology reports. The timeframe of interest was from the time of selection into the Astronaut Corps through May 2015 or death. For each colonoscopy report, the following data were captured: date of procedure, age at time of procedure, reason for procedure, quality of bowel prep, completion of procedure and/or reason for termination of procedure, findings of procedure, subsequent treatment (if any), recommended follow-up interval, actual follow up interval, family history of polyps or colon cancer, and other significant items or discrepancies. The population consisted of 338 astronauts: 52 females, 286 males. Of these, 56 were deceased, and 11 astronauts had no record of any colonoscopies. Because of a screening requirement change in 2003, analyses were conducted to determine if there were differences between the two time periods. One-sided Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used to identify statistically significant differences between the two time periods. RESULTS: There was a combined total of 1,964 colonoscopy screenings identified. The average follow-up intervals between colonoscopies were indeed longer after the screening requirement change than before the change. The mean follow-up interval pre -2003 was 3.59 years, while post-2003 it increased to 4.35 years. The statistical significance of this difference was confirmed using a one sided Wilcoxon rank sum test which yielded p<.001. Colonoscopies performed after the requirement change tended to have a higher incidence and greater severity of polyps. From pre-2003 to post-2003 the percentage of colonoscopy procedures yielding no polyps decreased from 83.77% to 74.70%. Not only did post-2003 procedures yield more polyp findings, but the polyps recorded were more often of severe pathology. Before 2003 3.62% of colonoscopy findings were polyps of the hyperplastic type (the least severe polyp type) and only 3.35% were of greater severity. Post-2003, 4.21% of findings were hyperplastic polyps while 11.44% were of greater severity. Upon the investigation of other possible contributing factors to these results, we also found that mean age post-2003 was 54.55 years which was significantly higher than during the pre-2003 timeframe (47.32 years). This was observed with a one-sided Wilcoxon rank sum test, resulting in a p<0.001. The increased average age of astronauts could also be a contributing factor to the greater number of polyps found since the risk of developing polyps increases with age. Further work is needed to better understand the increased incidence and greater severity of polyps found in astronaut colonoscopy outcomes.

Masterova, K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Aemulus Project. VI. Emulation of Beyond-standard Galaxy Clustering Statistics to Improve Cosmological Constraints

Abstract There is untapped cosmological information in galaxy redshift surveys in the nonlinear regime. In this work, we use the Aemulus suite of cosmological N -body simulations to construct Gaussian process emulators of galaxy clustering statistics at small scales (0.1–50 h −1 Mpc) in order to constrain cosmological and galaxy bias parameters. In addition to standard statistics—the projected correlation function w p ( r p ), the redshift-space monopole of the correlation function ξ 0 ( s ), and the quadrupole ξ 2 ( s )—we emulate statistics that include information about the local environment, namely the underdensity probability function P U ( s ) and the density-marked correlation function M ( s ). This extends the model of Aemulus III for redshift-space distortions by including new statistics sensitive to galaxy assembly bias. In recovery tests, we find that the beyond-standard statistics significantly increase the constraining power on cosmological parameters of interest: including P U ( s ) and M ( s ) improves the precision of our constraints on Ω m by 27%, σ 8 by 19%, and the growth of structure parameter, f σ 8 , by 12% compared to standard statistics. We additionally find that scales below ∼6 h −1 Mpc contain as much information as larger scales. The density-sensitive statistics also contribute to constraining halo occupation distribution parameters and a flexible environment-dependent assembly bias model, which is important for extracting the small-scale cosmological information as well as understanding the galaxy–halo connection. This analysis demonstrates the potential of emulating beyond-standard clustering statistics at small scales to constrain the growth of structure as a test of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2024

Summary and Annotated Bibliography of Measurement Error Corrections with Potential Application in Future Quesst Mission Community Noise Studies

This document is motivated by likely needs of the Quesst mission community response tests, which will culminate in data collection and estimation of dose-response regression relationships for consideration by domestic and international aviation regulators. Furthermore, basic research questions evaluating interactions between rates of community annoyance, dose levels, and indicators of the presence of rattle, vibration, and startle hinge on hypothesis testing in the context of regression models. For a variety of reasons, noise doses may be known only imprecisely and may not reflect the actual level experienced by responding subjects. These differences between true dose and estimated dose, be they systematic or random, constitute covariate measurement error. Available statistics literature speaks to the impacts of measurement error on regression models, both in terms of bias in estimated coefficients and predicted values, and in terms of the loss of statistical power for hypothesis testing. Given the particulars of a categorical annoyance response variable and a continuous noise dose predictor variable subject to measurement error during testing, the emphasis of this report is on findings and methods pertinent to generalized linear (and mixed) models likely to be employed during the Quesst mission community tests. We reach the following conclusions: 1. Of four reviewed methods, structural Bayesian measurement error models and simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) may be the most readily applicable to Quesst mission community noise study objectives. 2. If warranted, a linear measurement model can help model systematic sources of measurement error that the classical measurement error does not. 3. For its ready implementation and small additional input requirements, simulation extrapolation may be ideally suited for addressing secondary research questions involving interactions between annoyance, noise dose, and other factors through hypothesis testing. 4. For their flexibility and ability to propagate uncertainty, structural Bayesian hierarchical models have great appeal for mission purposes; some care may be needed in developing appropriate probability models describing actual noise exposure during testing. An annotated bibliography logs additional papers and resources that may be of value to analysts in other projects and disciplines.

Dose-Response Model↗

DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗