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At least 685 records · Page 38

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

Data Request for the Distribution Grid Atlas

Model-based, distribution powerflow analysis is a foundational component of system planning and grid modernization efforts, but data security is an impediment to collaboration among utility engineers, researchers, developers, community members, and other stakeholders. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are partnering to develop the new Distribution Grid Atlas - a publicly available catalog of realistic, geographically relevant, representative distribution feeder models without sensitive geographic information, customer data, or disclosure of utility models. We are looking for utilities to share data for the Distribution Grid Atlas.

distribution↗

Risk Model for EM Decision Support Toolsets

The Government Office of Accountability (GAO) has published several reports identifying the need for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) to address mounting costs for DoE's cleanup program. DOEEM could greatly benefit from independent decision tool-sets/models that would allow them to evaluate options and inform business decision at the enterprise level considering site-specific life cycle costs and system plans. Program goals: Develop a tool-set that enables EM to independently evaluate alternatives, assess outcomes from different contracting strategies, and inform critical decisions for the enterprise. Project goals: Adaption of a Risk Model for integration with complimentary tool-sets for project level decision making. Operational Events: Discrete event model that evaluates operational variables (e.g. capacity, throughput, maintenance constraints) and identify bottlenecks. Identifying and Bounding Project Risk: Identify risks that impact confidence in meeting goals (e.g. production). Life cycle Cost: Evaluate impacts of staffing levels, inventory, and capital investments on life cycle costs. Methods and approach: Monte Carlo Analysis is being executed to generate results: Input derives from Risk Register Data; Tied to Projected and Target Schedules; Incorporates float duration within the model. Assumes associated risk mitigation actions being completed within a timeline of five fiscal years. Metrics include: Confidence in Meeting Production Goal; Confidence in Safety Standards; Confidence in Continuous Operation; Other Metrics can be added as appropriate regarding specific site needs. The adapted risk model can be used as a stand alone decision tool or can be integrated complementary tool-sets (i.e. process and cost models) for project-specific decisions. These support tool-sets can then be integrated with others for site- and complex- level evaluations. Future work includes designing an adaptable and modular framework that would allow integration of multiple tool-sets for holistic and/or targeted evaluation of alternative strategies for decision making that could lead to risk and cost reduction across the enterprise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Alternative Treatment of Defense Waste Processing Facility Recycle via Reuse of Existing Liquid Waste Facilities - 20097

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at Savannah River Site (SRS) has been immobilizing high level waste since 1996. The chemical process within DWPF generates a large volume of condensate, which is recycled to the SRS H-Area Tank Farm. The recycle stream includes a small quantity of sludge solids, as well as soluble cesium that is volatilized during melter operation. The recycle waste is currently received into a large, underground waste tank that separates insoluble solids via decanting. The supernate is treated by an evaporator with a concentrate stream that is stored for future processing. The evaporator overheads are collected and sent to the Effluent Treatment Project (ETP) for final polishing and testing prior to discharge to local surface water. Recycle storage and treatment as described above complicates the overall mission within the tank farms, which are primarily engaged in waste retrieval and preparation activities that support sludge and salt disposition, as well as tank characterization and closure. The need to devote a portion of available storage space to recycle treatment limits operational flexibility, and ultimately the DWPF recycle stream must be diverted to fully close all the SRS waste tanks. An alternative treatment process is being explored to decouple the recycle stream from the tank farm. The proposed treatment process will accomplish solids separation via crossflow filtration and will utilize a wiped film evaporator to volume-reduce the filtrate stream. Evaporator overheads will continue to be further processed in ETP while the solids stream and evaporator concentrate stream will be returned for reprocessing with the DWPF and Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF). This process will utilize existing facilities within DWPF and the tank farm that were previously dedicated to Interim Salt Disposition (ISD), but no longer have an identified mission with the startup of SWPF. The reuse of these facilities will remove several constraints from the current Liquid Waste (LW) System Plan without expanding the current footprint of Department of Energy Environmental Management (EM) infrastructure within LW. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Data-Driven Unit Commitment Refinement - a Scalable Approach for Complex Modern Power Grids

Integration of renewable generation, which is often intermittent and decentralized, substantially increases the stochasticity and complexity of power grid operations. Future power systems planning will require significant computational capability to evaluate balance between demand and supply under varying conditions, both temporally and spatially. The standard approach for generation unit commitment is to use mixed-integer linear programming to find the optimal generation schedule considering ramping and generator constraints. In the future grid this poses computational scalability challenges because generation and demand are not known with certainty due to stochasticity in weather and complexity of the grid. To address this challenge, we present a data-driven unit commitment approach that can efficiently include stochastic weather impacts and contingency considerations to improve unit commitment. Our approach uses graph-based data analytics techniques on solutions to the security constrained (and possibly stochastic) economic dispatch problem to identify potential improvements to a given unit commitment. Recent breakthroughs in fully-parallel stochastic economic dispatch software allow this approach to be scalably deployed. Simulations on synthetic South Carolina and Texas grids show this method can improve grid reliability with security constraints over a set of contingencies, while also meaningfully lowering total generation cost.

Holt, Timothy↗

Application of Process Chemical Modeling to Optimize Radioactive Waste Disposal at the Savannah River Site – 24242

The Liquid Waste Program (LWP) managed by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) is responsible for the treatment and disposal of waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Radioactive waste at SRS is stored and processed at four key facilities – each with their respective functions to store, blend, grout, or vitrify waste. The tank farm, where waste is stored, consists primarily of legacy waste with new material incoming from the Accelerated Basin De-inventory program (ABD), which is managed by Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SRNS). System planning is done by SRNS and SRMC to optimize ABD and LWP operations, respectively.

Georgiou, Andreas↗

End-to-end planning and scheduling systems technology for space operations

Consideration is given to planning and scheduling operations concepts from an end-to-end perspective, through both mission operations and institutional support functions. An operations concept is proposed which is based on a flexible request language used to state resource requirements and mission constraints to a scheduling system. The language has the potential to evolve into an international standard for exchanging service request information on international space networks. The key benefit of the flexible scheduling request concept is the shift of a significant conflict resolution effort from humans to computers, reducing the time for generating a week's worth of schedules to hours instead of days.

Moe, Karen L.↗

Systems Engineering Management Plan NASA Traffic Aware Planner Integration Into P-180 Airborne Test-Bed

NASA's Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) is a cockpit decision support tool that provides aircrew with vertical and lateral flight-path optimizations with the intent of achieving significant fuel and time savings, while automatically avoiding traffic, weather, and restricted airspace conflicts. A key step towards the maturation and deployment of TAP concerned its operational evaluation in a representative flight environment. This Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) addresses the test-vehicle design, systems integration, and flight-test planning for the first TAP operational flight evaluations, which were successfully completed in November 2013. The trial outcomes are documented in the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) flight evaluation paper presented at the 14th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, Atlanta, GA. (AIAA-2014-2166, Maris, J. M., Haynes, M. A., Wing, D. J., Burke, K. A., Henderson, J., & Woods, S. E., 2014).

Maris, John↗

Controlling Distributed Planning

A system of software implements an extended version of an approach, denoted shared activity coordination (SHAC), to the interleaving of planning and the exchange of plan information among organizations devoted to different missions that normally communicate infrequently except that they need to collaborate on joint activities and/or the use of shared resources. SHAC enables the planning and scheduling systems of the organizations to coordinate by resolving conflicts while optimizing local planning solutions. The present software provides a framework for modeling and executing communication protocols for SHAC. Shared activities are represented in each interacting planning system to establish consensus on joint activities or to inform the other systems of consumption of a common resource or a change in a shared state. The representations of shared activities are extended to include information on (1) the role(s) of each participant, (2) permissions (defined as specifications of which participant controls what aspects of shared activities and scheduling thereof), and (3) constraints on the parameters of shared activities. Also defined in the software are protocols for changing roles, permissions, and constraints during the course of coordination and execution.

Clement, Bradley↗

Ares First Stage "Systemology" - Combining Advanced Systems Engineering and Planning Tools to Assure Mission Success

Ares is an integral part of NASA s Constellation architecture that will provide crew and cargo access to the International Space Station as well as low earth orbit support for lunar missions. Ares replaces the Space Shuttle in the post 2010 time frame. Ares I is an in-line, two-stage rocket topped by the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, its service module, and a launch abort system. The Ares I first stage is a single, five-segment reusable solid rocket booster derived from the Space Shuttle Program's reusable solid rocket motor. The Ares second or upper stage is propelled by a J-2X main engine fueled with liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. This paper describes the advanced systems engineering and planning tools being utilized for the design, test, and qualification of the Ares I first stage element. Included are descriptions of the current first stage design, the milestone schedule requirements, and the marriage of systems engineering, detailed planning efforts, and roadmapping employed to achieve these goals.

Seiler, James↗

Research and development for Onboard Navigation (ONAV) ground based expert/trainer system: Preliminary test plan

The test plan for the onboard navigation (ONAV) expert system is described. Levels of testing are identified and the contributing role of each level for ensuring reliability is described. Also, the objectives of each type of test are identified and a summary of the test methods and the type of testing environment to be used is included. The ONAV expert system testing effort utilizes a multi-level verification approach. Five levels of testing are performed in essentially a serial manner: (1) individual rules, (2) ordered and unordered functional groups, (3) interface rules, (4) system tests, and (5) user tests. The intent is to catch the full range of both programming errors common to traditional programming and those errors characteristic of expert systems including factbase organization and inference engine interactions.

Bochsler, Daniel C.↗

Lunar Flashlight Propulsion System Fracture Control Plan

This document is intended to replace a previously approved Fracture Control Plan (VACCO X16029-10-FCP1) for the Lunar Flashlight Propulsion System (LFPS). The current LFPS is a new design and therefore requires a new plan; however, the spacecraft interfaces have remained the same. This document describes the elements of the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC)Fracture Control Program and the responsibilities for managing these elements for the LFPS for the Lunar Flashlight CubeSat mission that will launch as a secondary payload on the Space Launch System (SLS). The purpose of this document is to establish a plan for the fracture control activities for MSFC’s LFPS that will be used on the Lunar Flashlight CubeSat. This plan lists all the specific activities that will be performed to satisfy fracture control for this program. The provisions of this plan shall be met to demonstrate that the parts are in compliance with NASA’s fracture control requirements for space flight hardware.

Cubesat↗

Mission Operations Planning and Scheduling System (MOPSS)

MOPSS is a generic framework that can be configured on the fly to support a wide range of planning and scheduling applications. It is currently used to support seven missions at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in roles that include science planning, mission planning, and real-time control. Prior to MOPSS, each spacecraft project built its own planning and scheduling capability to plan satellite activities and communications and to create the commands to be uplinked to the spacecraft. This approach required creating a data repository for storing planning and scheduling information, building user interfaces to display data, generating needed scheduling algorithms, and implementing customized external interfaces. Complex scheduling problems that involved reacting to multiple variable situations were analyzed manually. Operators then used the results to add commands to the schedule. Each architecture was unique to specific satellite requirements. MOPSS is an expert system that automates mission operations and frees the flight operations team to concentrate on critical activities. It is easily reconfigured by the flight operations team as the mission evolves. The heart of the system is a custom object-oriented data layer mapped onto an Oracle relational database. The combination of these two technologies allows a user or system engineer to capture any type of scheduling or planning data in the system's generic data storage via a GUI.

Wood, Terri↗

Evolution of space power systems

NASA planning for large power systems (tens to hundreds of kilowatts) in space for the next decade is summarized. Applications requiring large amounts of power, the selection of solar photovoltaic as the primary power conversion approach, and the power technology base are explained. Large power systems, beginning with a Space Shuttle/Spacelab power augmentation kit and an orbitally stored Power Module, are described.

Freitag, R. F.↗

Future operational plans for the National Space Transportation System

In March 1985, the NASA/DOD Space Transportation System Master Plan was published. This document establishes objectives and plans for operating the Space Transportation System (STS) for the next decade. In the present paper, some key points are discussed, and the significance of the weather forecasting capability is indicated. The STS is to become fully operational by the later 1980's and is to support fully the national needs into the mid-1990's. Attention is given to NASA/DOD STS coordination, NASA/DOD STS Master Plan Traffic Models, the Orbiter Launch-Rate Capability, Launch-Rate Capabilities for Shuttle Processing Facilities at Kennedy Space Center, and Launch-Rate Capabilities for Shuttle Processing Facilities at Vandenberg Air Force Base.

Neubauer, C. H., Jr.↗

Benefits from remote sensing data utilization in urban planning processes and system recommendations

The benefits of utilizing remote sensor data in the urban planning process of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments are investigated. An evaluation of sensor requirements, a description/ comparison of costs, benefits, levels of accuracy, ease of attainment, and frequency of update possible using sensor versus traditional data acquisition techniques are discussed.

Mallon, H. J.↗