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Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the validity and limitations of 1D model for heat and mass transfer performance evaluation in a multilayer binder-free desiccant dehumidifier: isothermal dehumidification with internal cooling

Efficient humidity control is essential for maintaining indoor thermal comfort, yet conventional vapor-compression-based dehumidifiers are energy-intensive. Employing separate sensible and latent cooling through desiccant-coated heat exchangers (DCHEs) combined with evaporative coolers offers energy savings of up to 80 % compared to conventional systems. However, the dehumidification performance of DCHEs remains limited due to the use of polymer binders for coating desiccant materials onto heat exchange surfaces. In our previous study, we developed a multilayer fixed-bed binder-free desiccant dehumidifier (MFBDD) that demonstrated high dehumidification capacity and low pressure drop compared to rotary desiccant wheels. Nevertheless, its potential for further enhancement through internal cooling and the use of step-shaped adsorption isotherms has not been explored. In this study, a physics-based one-dimensional (1D) transient model is developed and validated to capture the coupled heat and mass transfer processes in the MFBDD and extended to simulate internal cooling using a high-capacity composite metal–organic framework, MIL-101/GO-6 (water uptake ≈1.6 g/g within 35–47 % RH). The model enables detailed analysis of local air and bed temperature dynamics and quantifies how internal cooling affects the dehumidification performance under a wide range of operating conditions. Results show that integrating internal cooling and using MIL-101/GO-6 enhance mass adsorbed, moisture removal capacity, and dehumidification effectiveness by 50 %–99 % compared with the M.S. Gel baseline. The study further reveals that achieving near-isothermal operation requires simultaneous enhancement of the convective heat transfer coefficient and heat exchange surface area. In conclusion, this work provides the first detailed physical insight into the interplay between internal cooling and step-shaped isotherms in a binder-free desiccant device and establishes a validated modeling framework for scaling up and system-level performance evaluation of next-generation energy-efficient dehumidification systems.

Heat and mass transfer↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid-Energy-Powered Electrochemical Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Model: Plant Operation, Cost, and Profitability

Electrochemical ocean alkalinity enhancement is a form of marine carbon dioxide removal, a rapidly growing industry that is powered by efficient onshore or offshore energy sources. As more and larger deployments are being planned, it is important to consider how variable energy sources like tidal energy can impact plant performance and costs. An open-source Python-based generalizable model for electrodialysis-based ocean alkalinity enhancement has been developed that can capture key system-level insights of the electrochemistry, ocean chemistry, acid disposal, and co-product creation of these plants under various conditions. The model additionally accounts for hybrid energy system performance profiles and costs via the National Laboratory of the Rockies’ H2Integrate tool. The model was used to analyze an example theoretical plant deployment in North Admiralty Inlet, including how the plant is impacted by the available energy sources in the region and the scale at which plant costs are covered by the co-products it generates, such as recycled concrete aggregates, without requiring carbon credits. The results show that the example plant could be profitable without carbon credits at commercial scales of 100,000 to 1 million tons of carbon dioxide removal per year, so long as it uses low-cost electricity sources and either sells acid or recovers recycled concrete aggregates with about 1 molar acid concentrations, though more research is needed to confirm these results.

hybrid energy↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Cell to System: Accelerated hpc Simulations of BESS Aging under Frequency Regulation and Arbitrage use cases

Lithium-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS) packs have emerged as a leading solution for grid-scale energy storage, enhancing resiliency and balancing load fluctuations. Yet, experimental characterization of large-format LIB packs-particularly to assess performance and degradation over hundreds of cycles - demands substantial hardware investment and multi-year testing campaigns. In this work, we couple a hierarchical, physics-based modeling framework agnostic to electrode chemistries with high-performance computing to accelerate systems level evaluation by upto two orders of magnitude. Building on the open-source liionpack platform, we implement cell, module, and pack-scale electrochemical models enriched with mechanistic aging mechanisms and deploy them on an HPC cluster to simulate 150−200kWh systems over 500 - 1,000 cycles with in days. We subject these virtual B ESS to both constant-current cycling and realistic grid service profiles spanning frequency regulation, ramp-rate support, and energy arbitrage-and quantify the resulting degradation patterns. Our results reveal that localized cell aging can induce substantial nonuniformity at module and pack levels, with service-specific cycling protocols driving distinct aging modes. This rapid, multiscale modeling approach provides a powerful design-space exploration tool for optimizing electrical architecture, control strategies, and operational schedules to prolong pack lifetime and lower total cost of ownership.

Ayalasomayajula, Surya [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000860788↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Lake Biogeochemistry Model for Global Methane Emissions: Model Development, Site‐Level Validation, and Global Applicability

Abstract Lakes are important sentinels of climate change and may contribute over 30% of natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions; however, no earth system model (ESM) has represented lake CH 4 dynamics. To fill this gap, we refined a process‐based lake biogeochemical model to simulate global lake CH 4 emissions, including representation of lake bathymetry, oxic methane production (OMP), the effect of water level on ebullition, new non‐linear CH 4 oxidation kinetics, and the coupling of sediment carbon pools with in‐lake primary production and terrigenous carbon loadings. We compiled a lake CH 4 data set for model validation. The model shows promising performance in capturing the seasonal and inter‐annual variabilities of CH 4 emissions at 10 representative lakes for different lake types and the variations in mean annual CH 4 emissions among 106 lakes across the globe. The model reproduces the variations of the observed surface CH 4 diffusion and ebullition along the gradients of lake latitude, depth, and surface area. The results suggest that OMP could play an important role in surface CH 4 diffusion, and its relative importance is higher in less productive and/or deeper lakes. The model performance is improved for capturing CH 4 outgassing events in non‐floodplain lakes and the seasonal variability of CH 4 ebullition in floodplain lakes by representing the effect of water level on ebullition. The model can be integrated into ESMs to constrain global lake CH 4 emissions and climate‐CH 4 feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

A "Kane's Dynamics" Model for the Active Rack Isolation System

Many microgravity space science experiments require vibratory acceleration levels unachievable without active isolation. The Boeing Corporation's Active Rack Isolation System (ARIS) employs a novel combination of magnetic actuation and mechanical linkages to address these isolation requirements on the International Space Station (ISS). ARIS provides isolation at the rack (International Standard Payload Rack (ISPR)) level. Effective model-based vibration isolation requires: (1) an appropriate isolation device, (2) an adequate dynamic (i.e., mathematical) model of that isolator, and (3) a suitable, corresponding controller. ARIS provides the ISS response to the first requirement. This paper presents one response to the second, in a state space framework intended to facilitate an optimal-controls approach to the third. The authors use "Kane's Dynamics" to develop a state-space, analytical (algebraic) set of linearized equations of motion for ARIS.

Hampton, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

J-2X Turbopump Cavitation Diagnostics

The J-2X is the upper stage engine currently being designed by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) for the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). Propellant supply requirements for the J-2X are defined by the Ares Upper Stage to J-2X Interface Control Document (ICD). Supply conditions outside ICD defined start or run boxes can induce turbopump cavitation leading to interruption of J-2X propellant flow during hot fire operation. In severe cases, cavitation can lead to uncontained engine failure with the potential to cause a vehicle catastrophic event. Turbopump and engine system performance models supported by system design information and test data are required to predict existence, severity, and consequences of a cavitation event. A cavitation model for each of the J-2X fuel and oxidizer turbopumps was developed using data from pump water flow test facilities at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) and Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) together with data from Powerpack 1A testing at Stennis Space Center (SSC) and from heritage systems. These component models were implemented within the PWR J-2X Real Time Model (RTM) to provide a foundation for predicting system level effects following turbopump cavitation. The RTM serves as a general failure simulation platform supporting estimation of J-2X redline system effectiveness. A study to compare cavitation induced conditions with component level structural limit thresholds throughout the engine was performed using the RTM. Results provided insight into system level turbopump cavitation effects and redline system effectiveness in preventing structural limit violations. A need to better understand structural limits and redline system failure mitigation potential in the event of fuel side cavitation was indicated. This paper examines study results, efforts to mature J-2X turbopump cavitation models and structural limits, and issues with engine redline detection of cavitation and the use of vehicle-side abort triggers to augment the engine redline system.

Santi, I. Michael↗

NASA NTRS2008

Mesospheric H2O Concentrations Retrieved from SABER/TIMED Measurements

The SABER instrument on board the TIMED Satellite is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure temperature and minor constituent vertical profiles and energetics parameters in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The H2O concentrations are retrieved from 6.3 micron band radiances. The populations of H2O(v2) vibrational levels are in non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (non-LTE) above approximately 55 km altitude and the interpretation of 6.3 micron radiance requires utilizing non-LTE H2O model that includes various energy exchange processes in the system of H2O vibrational levels coupled with O2, N2, and CO2 vibrational levels. We incorporated these processes including kinetics of O2/O3 photolysis products to our research non-LTE H2O model and applied it for the development and optimization of SABER operational model. The latter has been validated using simultaneous SCISAT1/ACE occultation measurements. This helped us to estimate CO2(020)-O2(X,v=I), O2(X,v=I)- H2O(010), and O2(X,v=1) O rates at mesopause temperatures that is critical for an adequate interpretation of non-LTE H2O radiances in the MLT. The first distributions of seasonal and meridional H2O concentrations retrieved from SABER 6.3 micron radiances applying an updated non-LTE H2O model are demonstrated and discussed.

Feofilov, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

DEPEND - A design environment for prediction and evaluation of system dependability

The development of DEPEND, an integrated simulation environment for the design and dependability analysis of fault-tolerant systems, is described. DEPEND models both hardware and software components at a functional level, and allows automatic failure injection to assess system performance and reliability. It relieves the user of the work needed to inject failures, maintain statistics, and output reports. The automatic failure injection scheme is geared toward evaluating a system under high stress (workload) conditions. The failures that are injected can affect both hardware and software components. To illustrate the capability of the simulator, a distributed system which employs a prediction-based, dynamic load-balancing heuristic is evaluated. Experiments were conducted to determine the impact of failures on system performance and to identify the failures to which the system is especially susceptible.

Goswami, Kumar K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Collaborative Research: Advancing Arctic Climate Projection Capability at Seasonal to Decadal Scales (Final Technical Report)

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) at process resolving configurations has been used to (i) advance understanding of physical processes and feedbacks involved in Arctic amplification and (ii) understand and potentially reduce uncertainty in prediction of arctic climate change at seasonal to decadal scales. RASM consists the atmosphere (Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF), ocean (Parallel Ocean Program, POP), sea ice (CICE), land hydrology (Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC), river routing scheme (RVIC), marine biogeochemistry components and the coupling framework (CPL7). Its domain is pan-Arctic, with the atmosphere and land components configured on a 50-km or 25-km grid and four configurations of the ocean and sea ice components: 1/12°(~9.3km) or 1/48°(~2.4km) and 45 or 60 vertical layers. These RASM configurations have been motivated by the emerging exascale capability for high performance computing to improve model fidelity. The dynamical downscaling of reanalysis allows comparison of RASM results with observations in place and time to: (i) advance system level understanding of physical processes and coupling involved in an event, (ii) optimize model parameter space, (iii) diagnose and reduce model biases and (iv) produce realistic and consistent across all the components initial conditions for predictions and predictability studies, which are all unique capabilities not available in global Earth System Models (ESMs). An evaluation of RASM 1.0 (Cassano et al. 2017) revealed that it had a cold bias over the oceans and a warm bias over land areas due largely to cloud and radiation biases in the model, with too little cloud cover simulated over land and too much cloud cover simulated over sub-polar oceans. This study has motivated an upgrade to WRF version 3.7.1 in RASM and allowed for the inclusion of the radiative impact of convective clouds. A variety of atmospheric physics parameterizations were evaluated against observations (e.g. data from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE); Sedlar et al. 2020) to identify an optimal suite of WRF physics options in RASM. The RASM with the optimized WRF physics were used to study the impact of strong mesoscale winds over the ocean around the southern tip of Greenland (DuVivier and Cassano 2016) and their impact on oceanic convection (DuVivier et al. 2017a). Data from the PolarWinds field campaign were used to evaluate WRF boundary layer physics and resolution impacts on the simulation of a Greenland barrier wind event (DuVivier et al. 2017b). The RVIC streamflow routing model has been implemented in RASM to realistically represent high-resolution streamflow processes (Hamman et al. 2017) and to couple the land buoyancy fluxes to the ocean. The RASM-RVIC high-resolution data set of all coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas for 1979-2014 was published as a separate product (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.293037). The fidelity of atmospheric momentum transfer to and the response of polar marine Ekman layer in RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) was investigated by Roberts et al. (2015). The increased frequency of oceanic flux exchange in CESM, following the RASM guidance, caused a considerable increase in the median inertial ice speed across the Southern Ocean and parts of the Arctic. A comprehensive evaluation of the RASM1.0 atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land interface was completed by Brunke et al. (2018). RASM was also demonstrated for its capability to simulate extreme events in agreement with observations in space and time (Lee et al. submitted). In particular, the development of three open water events, known as polynyas, have been simulated north of Greenland in February of 2011, 2017 and 2018, in agreement with satellite observations for the past four decades. The optimized RASM sea ice results have been favorably evaluated against satellite observations and a subset of eleven CMIP6 models (Watts et al. submitted). In a complementary project, Jin et al. (2018) have shown that RASM with higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice conditions, concentrations of nutrients and ice algae, in comparison to results from the coarse-resolution (1°) CESM. In two other complementary studies, RASM results were used (i) to explain areas of concentrated use by bowhead whales, the seasonal progression in the use, and the physical environment within those areas (Citta et al. 2015) and (ii) for a synthesis of fall bowhead whales distribution and migration in the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) Sea to investigate whale movements and feeding to the local ocean hydrography and currents (Citta et al. 2018). However, the multi-decadal output from the CESM Large Ensemble yielded unrealistic forcing. Instead, the shorter NCEP CFSv2 9-month forecasts were successfully tested and afforded an increased ensemble size (~30) to demonstrate gains of dynamical downscaling at sub-seasonal to intra-annual time scales. The improved model physics and coupling among RASM model components have yielded more realistic representation of the sea ice cover and consistent across all model components initial conditions. Consequently, RASM demonstrates significant gains compared to simulation of sea ice in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, RASM 6-month ensemble forecasts yield very realistic sea ice distribution, which demonstrates both significant gains of dynamical downscaling and the continued impact of the initial conditions on forecasts out to 6 months (https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions). A follow up study using RASM for dynamical downscaling of the more realistic CESM initialized Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble output is currently ongoing as part of the DOE RGMA HiLAT-RASM project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

TOPEX/Poseidon precision orbit determination production and expert system

TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) is a joint mission between NASA and the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), the French Space Agency. The TOPEX/Poseidon Precision Orbit Determination Production System (PODPS) was developed at Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC) to produce the absolute orbital reference required to support the fundamental ocean science goals of this satellite altimeter mission within NASA. The orbital trajectory for T/P is required to have a RMS accuracy of 13 centimeters in its radial component. This requirement is based on the effective use of the satellite altimetry for the isolation of absolute long-wavelength ocean topography important for monitoring global changes in the ocean circulation system. This orbit modeling requirement is at an unprecedented accuracy level for this type of satellite. In order to routinely produce and evaluate these orbits, GSFC has developed a production and supporting expert system. The PODPS is a menu driven system allowing routine importation and processing of tracking data for orbit determination, and an evaluation of the quality of the orbit so produced through a progressive series of tests. Phase 1 of the expert system grades the orbit and displays test results. Later phases undergoing implementation, will prescribe corrective actions when unsatisfactory results are seen. This paper describes the design and implementation of this orbit determination production system and the basis for its orbit accuracy assessment within the expert system.

Putney, Barbara↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization based process modeling of an anaerobic membrane bioreactor system: Application to swine wastewater

To maintain current levels of consumption in the economy with the dwindling supply of non-renewable material and energy, alternative resource streams more traditionally viewed as waste streams must be considered. Fermentation of high-strength wastewaters is one such pathway that allows for the recovery of energy, nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon compounds. Anaerobic membrane bioreactors (AnMBRs) are an emerging technology that allow for the digestion of wastewater in a much smaller footprint than traditional anaerobic digesters. Adoption of this technology into industry has been limited by membrane capital and cleaning costs, but these costs may be offset through the recovery of valuable products. To evaluate the viability of AnMBR technology in the context of swine wastewater treatment, an optimization-based process model built upon Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) has been developed. Modeling results show that a swine wastewater stream provides potential for net positive energy generation from the AnMBR system in most cases. Sensitivity analyses around important variables were conducted to determine focus areas for future research into AnMBR technology and evaluate the robustness of the model to microbial variables that may change with different microbial communities.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scalable Federated Learning for Scientific Foundation Models on Leadership-Class Systems

Federated learning (FL) at leadership-class HPC systems remains largely unexplored, despite growing interest in deploying federated workflows on modern HPC systems. This paper provides the first system-level empirical characterization of federated fine-tuning of pretrained foundation models on an exascale supercomputer under a multi-node deployment. Using up to 96 concurrent FL clients deployed across Frontier nodes, we study the impact of client scale, model size, data heterogeneity, partial participation, and differential privacy on runtime, communication overhead, and convergence stability. Our results show that pretrained transformer models remain robust to heterogeneity, client dropout, and privacy noise, while system efficiency degrades rapidly with scale as synchronizat and orchestration dominate runtime. We further demonstrate that system-aware execution strategies, including intra-node aggregation and early aggregation, significantly reduce wall-clock time without degrading model quality. These findings establish a practical performance baseline and inform the design of communication-efficient FL systems on leadership-class HPC platforms.

Kotevska, Olivera [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000316772243)↗

NASA NTRS2014

HEMCO v1.0: A Versatile, ESMF-Compliant Component for Calculating Emissions in Atmospheric Models

We describe the Harvard-NASA Emission Component version 1.0 (HEMCO), a stand-alone software component for computing emissions in global atmospheric models. HEMCO determines emissions from different sources, regions, and species on a user-defined grid and can combine, overlay, and update a set of data inventories and scale factors, as specified by the user through the HEMCO configuration file. New emission inventories at any spatial and temporal resolution are readily added to HEMCO and can be accessed by the user without any preprocessing of the data files or modification of the source code. Emissions that depend on dynamic source types and local environmental variables such as wind speed or surface temperature are calculated in separate HEMCO extensions. HEMCO is fully compliant with the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) environment. It is highly portable and can be deployed in a new model environment with only few adjustments at the top-level interface. So far, we have implemented HEMCO in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Earth system model (ESM) and in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). By providing a widely applicable framework for specifying constituent emissions, HEMCO is designed to ease sensitivity studies and model comparisons, as well as inverse modeling in which emissions are adjusted iteratively. The HEMCO code, extensions, and the full set of emissions data files used in GEOS-Chem are available at http: //wiki.geos-chem.org/HEMCO.

GEOS-5↗

NASA NTRS2003

MPD Thruster Performance Analytic Models

Magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thrusters are capable of accelerating quasi-neutral plasmas to high exhaust velocities using Megawatts (MW) of electric power. These characteristics make such devices worthy of consideration for demanding, far-term missions such as the human exploration of Mars or beyond. Assessment of MPD thrusters at the system and mission level is often difficult due to their status as ongoing experimental research topics rather than developed thrusters. However, in order to assess MPD thrusters utility in later missions, some adequate characterization of performance, or more exactly, projected performance, and system level definition are required for use in analyses. The most recent physical models of self-field MPD thrusters have been examined, assessed, and reconfigured for use by systems and mission analysts. The physical models allow for rational projections of thruster performance based on physical parameters that can be measured in the laboratory. The models and their implications for the design of future MPD thrusters are presented.

Gilland, James↗

NASA NTRS2007

MPD Thruster Performance Analytic Models

Gilland, James↗

NASA NTRS1994

Software fault tolerance in computer operating systems

This chapter provides data and analysis of the dependability and fault tolerance for three operating systems: the Tandem/GUARDIAN fault-tolerant system, the VAX/VMS distributed system, and the IBM/MVS system. Based on measurements from these systems, basic software error characteristics are investigated. Fault tolerance in operating systems resulting from the use of process pairs and recovery routines is evaluated. Two levels of models are developed to analyze error and recovery processes inside an operating system and interactions among multiple instances of an operating system running in a distributed environment. The measurements show that the use of process pairs in Tandem systems, which was originally intended for tolerating hardware faults, allows the system to tolerate about 70% of defects in system software that result in processor failures. The loose coupling between processors which results in the backup execution (the processor state and the sequence of events occurring) being different from the original execution is a major reason for the measured software fault tolerance. The IBM/MVS system fault tolerance almost doubles when recovery routines are provided, in comparison to the case in which no recovery routines are available. However, even when recovery routines are provided, there is almost a 50% chance of system failure when critical system jobs are involved.

Iyer, Ravishankar K.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗