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At least 685 records · Page 38

IRES Microgrid Energy Integration Report Version 1.0

This report presents technical information and guidance for the planned Integrated Renewable Energy System (IRES) microgrid project. This deployment of the microgrid and its associated assets was initiated in the beginning of 2022 at the Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory (MCRL) facility of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)-Sequim, Washington. The information in the report is organized under two main focus areas: electrical power interface, or interconnection, information of planned IRES assets; and communication and control interface, or interoperability, information of the planned IRES assets. The information will provide technical input for the development of the IRES microgrid controller technical specification, and also provide input for PNNL’s evaluation of adequacy of the electrical service infrastructure at MCRL to support the IRES project and help identify any gaps that will require facility-based upgrades. From an R&D aspect, this study and report will build on PNNL’s research and development work relating to energy storage (ES) codes and standards (C&Ss), including hybrid systems, performed on behalf of the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE) ES. The current state of C&Ss for advanced technologies and their application, including microgrid-based technology is limited. For cases where formal standards issued by recognized Standards Developing Organizations do not yet exist, guidance is provided based on emerging best practices, including industry-group references that can be leveraged for microgrid technology which is in its early stages of development and use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Interfacing HDF5 with a scalable object‐centric storage system on hierarchical storage

Summary Object storage technologies that take advantage of multitier storage on HPC systems are emerging. However, to use these technologies at present, applications have to be modified significantly from current I/O libraries. HDF5, a widely used I/O middleware on HPC systems, provides a virtual object layer (VOL) that allows applications to connect to different storage mechanisms transparently without requiring significant code modifications. We recently designed the proactive data containers (PDC) object‐centric storage system that provides the capabilities of transparent, asynchronous, and autonomous data movement taking advantage of multiple storage tiers—a decision that has so far been left upon the user on most current systems. To enable PDC's features through HDF5 without modifying application codes, we have developed an HDF5 VOL connector that interfaces with PDC. We present in this article the connector interface and evaluate its performance on Cori, a Cray XC40 supercomputer located at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC). Our evaluation demonstrates up to an 8× improvement compared with HDF5 that has the most recent optimizations.

Mu, Jingqing↗

Sensitivity Calculations for Systems with Polyethylene Reflector Materials Using CLUTCH

The SCALE 6.2.4 code package contains four sequences for calculating $k_{eff}$ sensitivity coefficients. Two of these sequences use deterministic transport solvers: a one-dimensional (1D) capability based on XSDRN, and a two-dimensional (2D) capability based on NEWT. These sequences are restricted to the multigroup (MG) treatment of neutron energy. The three-dimensional (3D) sequences use the KENO V.a or KENO-VI Monte Carlo transport codes and can be used to calculate sensitivity coefficients with either MG or continuous-energy (CE) transport. The 3D sensitivities are ultimately reported in an MG structure, regardless of the method used in the transport calculations. If desired, the sensitivity coefficients can be reported with very fine energy resolution from a CE calculation, but they are calculated only in the MG library structure in the MG mode. CE TSUNAMI methods are available in SCALE starting in SCALE version 6.2. Sensitivity coefficients were generated using the 3D sequences as part of the generation of the SCALE 6.2.2 Validation Report; difficulties encountered when using the CLUTCH method for thick, fissionable-material reflectors were discussed and investigated as documented in a previous paper. This paper discusses the difficulties encountered in generating accurate sensitivity coefficients using the CLUTCH technique for polyethylene reflectors for two fast spectrum benchmarks. Direct perturbation (DP) calculations were performed to confirm the accuracy of the total sensitivity coefficient for important isotopes with large sensitivities in the system. Discrepancies were detected for CLUTCH-calculated sensitivity coefficients in the reflector of a critical experiment with a radial polyethylene reflector. A simple polyethylene-reflected plutonium sphere was then used to further investigate the discrepancy. Calculations performed using the iterated fission probability (IFP) method generated accurate sensitivity coefficients in both cases. The results of this study emphasize the need to confirm CLUTCH sensitivity results with DP calculations. IFP calculations are generally less efficient but more reliable than CLUTCH calculations. Improvements to the CLUTCH methodology that retain the greater efficiency but address identified difficulties are therefore potentially useful to analysts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Effect of Nuclear Data Covariances on Integral Experiment Design with Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) uses MCNP6.2 and the Whisper code for criticality safety analyses of the Hanford Tank Farm. Together the codes derive baseline upper subcritical limits (USLs) for the waste models using experimental benchmarks. Whisper returns higher USLs, i.e. , has less of a conservative penalty, when the neutronic similarity of the experimental benchmarks to the application is high. Unfortunately, few critical benchmarks have high similarity to the Hanford tanks. The waste in the tanks is highly dilute in plutonium and contains large masses of weakly neutron-absorbing elements like iron and manganese. Experimental benchmarks typically have low sensitivity to these absorbers because they are present as structural materials. Lacking similar benchmarks, new Thermal Epithermal eXperiment (TEX) configurations with high Pu content and interstitial iron absorbers have been designed for the criticality safety validation. The features of the design have been iterated upon to maximize the similarity between the experiment and different Hanford waste models. The similarity is quantified with sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification using the representativity coefficient, or c k . The representativity calculation requires nuclear data covariances, which may differ between nuclear data libraries and between library versions. Because of these variations, the optimal design may depend on the nuclear data covariances library. A scenario can be envisioned where an experiment is designed, and c k is maximized, with one set of covariance data. However, when the covariance data is changed, say from ENDF/B-VII.1 to ENDF/B-VIII.0, and the benchmark is used in a criticality safety evaluation, the experiment becomes suboptimal with respect to c k . In this paper, we present how the optimal design of the new TEX experiments varied depending on the nuclear data covariances used to calculate c k . We compare ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0, as if the library had been updated since the design of the experiment. Additionally, we use JEFF3.3 to simulate if the covariance data of a different library had been used. The results show that the covariances do have an important effect on the designs, less so for thermal systems (where the data are more consistent between evaluations) and more so for epithermal systems where more differences exist.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

HPC4Mfg with Samsung: Making semiconductor devices cool through HPC ab initio simulations

For decades, the semiconductor technology has followed the Moore’s law, making newer devices more powerful and energy efficient. Recently, however, it has reached a point where the performance and the energy efficiency of the device do not improve with the shrinking device size. One of the fundamental reasons of this deviation from the past trend is the interconnect resistance, which becomes larger with the shrinking size. The devices size is so small that the quantum mechanical effects can no longer be ignored and the traditional continuum simulation tools such as TCAD become inadequate. In this project, Samsung Semiconductor Inc. and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has collaborated to perform first of kind device-scale ab initio simulations to optimize materials and interconnect morphology to minimize interconnect resistance. We have tested the use of LS3DF method and the PEtot_trans approach on top of the folded spectrum method (FSM) Escan code to calculate the scattering state, and to study various effects influence the interconnect conductivity. We found that, the LS3DF can be used to calculate such metallic system. On the other hand, the use of Escan code to solve the linear equation is not practical due to the slow convergence. We have implemented a Chebyshev filter technique to calculate a few hundred eigen states near the scattering state energy E, then use these eigen states as preconditioner to solve the linear equation. We have used this approach to study the different factors which affect the interconnect conductivity, including the shape, the point defect, the temperature, and the grain boundary.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Paving the Way for Net Zero Energy Codes through Performance Based Approaches

The prescriptive path is the most widely used approach for commercial code compliance in the United States. However, to achieve near-term net zero energy performance that many stakeholders in the buildings industry desire, it is clear that energy codes will need to transition from prescriptive to performance-based approaches. However, that transition is not without potential pitfalls. Among the concerns expressed by stakeholders are added complexity and cost, lack of confidence in energy modeling results, gamesmanship on the part of applicants, lack or qualified reviewers, challenges in promoting de-carbonization, and the inequity of trading long lived envelope efficiency for short lived measures such as building controls. This paper will discuss multiple approaches being evaluated and implemented by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to improve the usability of the performance-based approach for both code compliance and beyond code programs to meet aggressive energy savings targets. A 'system performance' approach provides a simpler approach compared to whole building performance, while keeping tradeoffs limited to specific building systems. A simplified whole-building performance-based approach for small commercial buildings can cost effectively achieve deeper savings for buildings that typically follow the prescriptive compliance approach. Improved reporting and verification processes applied to the traditional performance path can provide greater confidence in simulation results and facilitate adoption of performance-based approaches. Prescriptive packages provide prescriptive solutions while targeting specific performance thresholds. This paper discusses the progress being made with each of these approaches and provides examples of their implementation in energy codes and beyond code programs.

Performance Based Codes, Appendix G, PRM, TSPR, Sy↗

Single classical field description of interacting scalar fields

In this report we test the degree to which interacting Bosonic systems can be approximated by a classical field as total occupation number is increased. This is done with our publicly available code repository, QIBS, a new massively parallel solver for these systems. We use a number of toy models well studied in the literature and track when the classical field description admits quantum corrections, called the quantum breaktime. This allows us to test claims in the literature regarding the rate of convergence of these systems to the classical evolution. We test a number of initial conditions, including coherent states, number eigenstates, and field number states. We find that of these initial conditions, only number eigenstates do not converge to the classical evolution as occupation number is increased. We find that systems most similar to scalar field dark matter exhibit a logarithmic enhancement in the quantum breaktime with total occupation number. Systems with contact interactions or with field number state initial conditions, and linear dispersions, exhibit a power law enhancement. Finally, we find that the breaktime scaling depends on both model interactions and initial conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling and Analysis of a Micro-reactor using the DireWolf Code Suite

Micro-reactors, specifically those cooled with heat pipes, are tightly coupled systems which require multi-physics tools to accurately model both steady-state and transient behavior. Idaho National Laboratory’s DireWolf code suite is tailor-built to model heat-pipe reactors. DireWolf’s ability to model the coupled steady-state behavior of a heat-pipe micro-reactor are demonstrated herein. The DireWolf modeling methodology is described, and a micro-reactor design is introduced. A full-core model is developed, and the steady-state coupled neutronics-thermal analysis is performed. Results of the analyses, including flux, power, and temperature distributions are presented and discussed. This is a Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) led publication.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Toward performance-portable PETSc for GPU-based exascale systems

The Portable Extensible Toolkit for Scientific computation (PETSc) library delivers scalable solvers for nonlinear time-dependent differential and algebraic equations and for numerical optimization. The PETSc design for performance portability addresses fundamental GPU accelerator challenges and stresses flexibility and extensibility by separating the programming model used by the application from that used by the library, and it enables application developers to use their preferred programming model, such as Kokkos, RAJA, SYCL, HIP, CUDA, or OpenCL, on upcoming exascale systems. Furthermore, a blueprint for using GPUs from PETSc-based codes is provided, and case studies emphasize the flexibility and high performance achieved on current GPU-based systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulating coupled surface–subsurface flows with ParFlow v3.5.0: capabilities, applications, and ongoing development of an open-source, massively parallel, integrated hydrologic model

Surface flow and subsurface flow constitute a naturally linked hydrologic continuum that has not traditionally been simulated in an integrated fashion. Recognizing the interactions between these systems has encouraged the development of integrated hydrologic models (IHMs) capable of treating surface and subsurface systems as a single integrated resource. IHMs are dynamically evolving with improvements in technology, and the extent of their current capabilities are often only known to the developers and not general users. This article provides an overview of the core functionality, capability, applications, and ongoing development of one open-source IHM, ParFlow. ParFlow is a parallel, integrated, hydrologic model that simulates surface and subsurface flows. ParFlow solves the Richards equation for three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow and the two-dimensional kinematic wave approximation of the shallow water equations for overland flow. The model employs a conservative centered finite-difference scheme and a conservative finite-volume method for subsurface flow and transport, respectively. ParFlow uses multigrid-preconditioned Krylov and Newton–Krylov methods to solve the linear and nonlinear systems within each time step of the flow simulations. The code has demonstrated very efficient parallel solution capabilities. ParFlow has been coupled to geochemical reaction, land surface (e.g., the Common Land Model), and atmospheric models to study the interactions among the subsurface, land surface, and atmosphere systems across different spatial scales. This overview focuses on the current capabilities of the code, the core simulation engine, and the primary couplings of the subsurface model to other codes, taking a high-level perspective.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Error-correcting codes for fermionic quantum simulation

Utilizing the framework of \mathbb{Z}_2 ℤ 2 lattice gauge theories in the context of Pauli stabilizer codes, we present methodologies for simulating fermions via qubit systems on a two-dimensional square lattice. We investigate the symplectic automorphisms of the Pauli module over the Laurent polynomial ring. This enables us to systematically increase the code distances of stabilizer codes while fixing the rate between encoded logical fermions and physical qubits. We identify a family of stabilizer codes suitable for fermion simulation, achieving code distances of d=2,3,4,5,6,7, allowing correction of any \lfloor \frac{d-1}{2} \rfloor ⌊ d − 1 2 ⌋ -qubit error. In contrast to the traditional code concatenation approach, our method can increase the code distances without decreasing the (fermionic) code rate. In particular, we explicitly show all stabilizers and logical operators for codes with code distances of d=3,4,5. We provide syndromes for all Pauli errors and invent a syndrome-matching algorithm to compute code distances numerically.

Physics↗

Nuclear Science User Facilities High Performance Computing: Provide a Science Gateway for HPC Users

Idaho National Laboratory (INL), supported by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) through the Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF), provides direct access to the Barracuda Virtual Reactor and 18 Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) applications via a web-based science gateway developed using Open Ondemand on the INL high performance computing (HPC) systems. This gateway features the computational tools of the Nuclear Computational Resource Center (NCRC) and the computing resources of the INL high performance computing systems. These computational tools are a key foundation of collaboration and innovation in nuclear energy systems research. High performance computing resources and INL staff directly support the mission and objectives of DOE-NE. The Barracuda Virtual Reactor was the first science gateway deployed in Jan 2021 to support NSUF users. In July 2021, the science gateway was expanded to support access to NCRC codes for use across all supported INL HPC systems. The HPC science gateway currently supports 20 total applications. The gateway also includes access to training resources specific to NCRC tools.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Heavy-Duty Electric Fleet Depot Charging Load Profiles & Substation Load Integration Assessment Results

This data set includes the 24-hour fleet depot charging load profiles (15-min. average demand) and substation load integration assessment results produced for the study, "Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification and the Impacts of Depot Charging on Electricity Distribution Systems", published in 2021 (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00855-0). The code developed to generate these load profiles is publicly available at https://github.com/NREL/hdev-depot-charging-2021. Please cite as: Borlaug, B., Muratori, M., Gilleran, M., Woody, D., Muston, W., Canada, T., Ingram, A., Gresham, H., and McQueen, C., (2021). "Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification and the Impacts of Depot Charging on Electricity Distribution Systems". https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00855-0.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Real-time machine-learning-driven control system of a deformable mirror for achieving aberration-free X-ray wavefronts

A neural-network machine learning model is developed to control a bimorph adaptive mirror to achieve and preserve aberration-free coherent X-ray wavefronts at synchrotron radiation and free electron laser beamlines. The controller is trained on a mirror actuator response directly measured at a beamline with a real-time single-shot wavefront sensor, which uses a coded mask and wavelet-transform analysis. The system has been successfully tested on a bimorph deformable mirror at the 28-ID IDEA beamline of the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. It achieved a response time of a few seconds and maintained desired wavefront shapes (e.g., a spherical wavefront) with sub-wavelength accuracy at 20 keV of X-ray energy. This result is significantly better than what can be obtained using a linear model of the mirror’s response. The developed system has not been tailored to a specific mirror and can be applied, in principle, to different kinds of bending mechanisms and actuators.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Development of a Conditioned System-Level Groundwater Model to Evaluate Long-Term Groundwater Impacts within a Performance Assessment - 20115

A preliminary performance assessment (PA) of single-shell tank Waste Management Area (WMA) A-AX located at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s Hanford Site in southeastern Washington is being conducted to satisfy the requirements of DOE Order 435.1 [1] as it relates to closure of the single-shell radioactive waste tanks in the WMA A-AX tank farms. A PA assesses the fate, transport, and impacts of radionuclides within a low-level radioactive waste disposal facility in its assumed closure configuration and the subsequent potential doses to humans over a 1,000-year compliance period and a 10,000-year performance evaluation period. The WMA A-AX preliminary PA evaluation is structured around the complementary use of process-level and system-level models to calculate the facility performance against established DOE Order 435.1 [1] performance objectives. Process-level models are those that represent a detailed phenomenological representation of processes of concern in the PA. Process models typically only represent one or a few of the components of the PA, such as groundwater flow and transport, and must be integrated with other modeling elements to perform PA calculations. System-level models are those that are abstracted from the process models, retaining the essential features of the process model, while allowing integration of all aspects of the PA in a single modeling framework. System-level models are often characterized by coarser numerical discretization, lower dimensionality, or other similar simplifications compared to the process-level model. Traditionally, a three-dimensional (3-D) process-level model is utilized primarily to evaluate the long-term impact on groundwater and the potential doses to individuals who consume contaminated groundwater. System-level models are also utilized to evaluate the groundwater pathway in PAs. These models typically have reduced dimensionality (1-D) and are conditioned utilizing flow fields (Darcy fluxes) and moisture content distributions that are abstracted from the process level models. The abstraction approach assures that the flow field in both models is consistent for a specific set of input parameters for flow, differing only in the discretization and dimensionality of the two models. The preliminary WMA A-AX PA incorporates a detailed representation of the geological system and hydraulic properties within the 3-D model STOMP{sup C} numerical code so that the effects of relevant features and processes on water flow and radionuclide transport in the subsurface can be evaluated. The complementary system-level model is developed utilizing the GoldSim{sup C} code to implement a simplified, 1-D equivalent model to represent the groundwater pathway. Contaminant transport through the vadose zone and unconfined aquifer for Tc-99 and I-129 were evaluated in each of the models. Adjustments to the saturated portion of the GoldSim{sup C} 1-D model were required to mimic the dispersion effect captured with the 3-D STOMP{sup C} model. Once this conditioning was conducted, highly similar results for the transport of Tc-99 and I-129 were achieved at the point of calculation, located 100 m downgradient from the WMA A-AX fenceline. These radionuclides represent elements that are regarded as primary dose drivers in the PA groundwater pathway analysis. The high degree of conformance between the two models suggests that the use of the equivalent 1-D system model is suitable for evaluating the full suite of radionuclides that will be released from the tank sources within WMA A-AX over the 1,000-year compliance period and over the 10,000-year evaluation period. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Non-Cartesian Coordinate Systems in the Portage Library

In order to be more broadly useful, the Portage framework needs to be able to support non-Cartesian coordinate systems. This document will lay out the most important details of implementing non-Cartesian coordinate systems in Portage. The most immediate need for this feature is integration with the EAP code base. Towards that end, the focus will be on certain curvilinear coordinate systems. However, this will provide a framework that can be used to implement other coordinate systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗