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DOE OSTI2021

A market-oriented database design for critical material research

Material databases are important tools to provide and store information from material research. Rising concerns about supply-chain risks to raw materials presents a need to incorporate raw-material market and end-use application data, beyond basic chemical and physical properties, into a material database. One key challenge for researchers working on critical materials is information scarcity and inconsistency. This paper introduces, as a result of a two-year project, a critical-material commodity database (CMCD) incorporated with a low-code web-based platform that allows easy access for users and simple updates for the authors. The main goal of this project was to educate material scientists on the applications having the most impact on the supply chain and current industrial specifications/markets for each application. The objective was to provide material researchers with harmonized information so that they could gain a better understanding of the market, focus their technologies on an application with a high potential for commercialization, and better contribute to supply-chain risk reduction. While the goal was met with high receptivity, several limitations stemmed from query design, distribution platform, and quality of data source. To overcome some of these limitations and expand on CMCD's potential, we are building a public webpage with an improved interface, better data organization, and higher extensibility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data and code from: Multivariate bayesian regression model for predicting disposed ash composition at U.S. coal fired power stations

This dataset contains the code and data files needed for implementation of a Multivariate Bayesian Regression model, described in Jin et al. (2025), for the historical prediction of the chemical composition of disposed coal ash at U.S. coal fired power plants as a function of annualized coal purchase data. The integrated coal supply data file (CoalSupplyDataset.csv) represents a compilation of monthly fuel purchase records for the period 1973-2022 at major U.S. power stations. These records were obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The CSV file also contains, for each coal purchase record, the coal region of the mine as defined by the U.S. Geological Survey. Data entry errors and data gaps in the EIA records were corrected as described in Jin et al. This CSV file represents the integrated coal supply data after corrections were made. The model structure and fitting parameters are encoded in pickle file format (Bayesian.pkl). The model was developed with the coal supply data and coal ash composition data, apportioned according to the Stratified Shuffle Split for training and testing subsets. The model was built using Python and the PyMC library. Reference Publication: Jin, Z.; Huang, J.; Hower, J.C.; Hsu-Kim, H.(2025). Predictive Assessment of the Chemical Composition of Coal Ash in Reserve at U.S. Disposal Sites. Environmental Science & Technology.

Coal ash composition↗

DOE OSTI2021

Benchmarks of Global Clean Energy Manufacturing, 2014-2016

Benchmarks of Global Clean Energy Manufacturing provides an assessment of the global state of clean energy manufacturing over 3 years from 2014 to 2016. Four technologies were examined - wind turbine components (blade, tower, nacelle), crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar photovoltaic (PV) modules, light-duty vehicle (LDV) lithium-ion battery (LIB) cells, and light-emitting diode (LED) packages for lighting and other consumer products. The analysis looked along each technology's manufacturing supply chain, including processing raw materials, producing required subcomponents, and assembling final products. Manufacturing supply chains were evaluated across 13 economies that are the primary manufacturing hubs for these technologies. This Highlights summary report features key findings across the manufacturing supply chains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Component Criticality in BESS for Cybersecurity

Battery energy storage systems (BESS), inverters, and associated digital equipment are integral pieces of interdependent energy delivery systems. When considering the supply chain security of such systems, there is often a misplaced focus on the origin of energy generation and storage materials like battery cells, overlooking the more significant cyber risks that stem from digital power electronics control systems. Part of this misplaced focus is due to the relative costs of these components, with more attention given to expensive raw materials rather than the impactful digital elements themselves. The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is addressing this gap in supply chain security through a systems-of-systems approach that considers the impact various components in digital energy systems can have should misoperation occur. Therefore, INL assigns a cyber criticality score based on quantitative analysis, which enables informed prioritization of mitigations and allows operators to reduce risk in light of the prevalence of a BESS and associated systems foreign supply chain.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Design for Sustainable Circularity of Barrier Films Used in Sheet Molding Composites Production

Sheet molding composites (SMC) are thermoset based molding compounds with a global market size of USD 2.1 billion in 2020. SMC is usually processed with multilayer barrier/carrier films to prevent emissions from volatile organic compounds (VOC). The plastic barriers are separated from SMC after the curing process and discarded. To illustrate the high consumption volume of SMC barrier/carrier films, Kohler Co., a company which uses SMC in their bath and showering product lines, alone generates over 1M lb/year of SMC barrier/carrier film waste. Therefore, high amount of SMC barrier/carrier film plastic waste creates a great opportunity for reusing, recycling, or valorization at its end of life. This can be achieved through transition from a linear to a circular supply chain design. However, this transition will not be feasible without overcoming the technical and economic barriers. This project aims to tackle this by making the film circular. Different end of life alternatives will be evaluated experimentally. The reusability of the film will be studied through applying different mechanical and solvent cleaning techniques. The operability concerns regarding the utilization of the cleaned film for long run operations will be addressed by thermally stitching the film. Pelletizing of the cleaned film will also be investigated as a viable technique for recycling or downcycling of the film as molded products. In addition to technical barriers, designing a sustainable circular supply chain for SMC carrier film products requires uncovering the collaboration opportunities between suppliers and users at different stages of the value chain to expand its use to other products. These opportunities will be investigated by finding companies willing to buy or treat the plastic film waste. Finally, the economic viability and environmental impacts of these circular design alternatives will be evaluated through techno-economic assessment (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA). Techno-economic and life cycle inventory data for various pathways will also be made available as one of the main outcomes of this project. Preliminary LCA results indicate that the current SMC film supply chain (base case) emits 5.81 tonne CO2 eq. and consumes 104 GJ energy per tonne of SMC film. It is estimated that alternative circular pathways result in 14-20% less CO2 emissions and 34-44% reduction in embodied energy. This project will develop a tool to analyze the circularity and sustainability of hundreds of combinations of alternatives in different life cycle stages. Users of this tool will be able to choose the best combination among these alternatives with respect to the selected economic, environmental and circularity objectives.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Material Design Strategies for Recovery of Critical Resources from Water

Population growth, urbanization, and decarbonization efforts are collectively straining the supply of limited resources that are necessary to produce batteries, electronics, chemicals, fertilizers, and other important products. Securing the supply chains of these critical resources via the development of separation technologies for their recovery represents a major global challenge to ensure stability and security. Surface water, groundwater, and wastewater are emerging as potential new sources to bolster these supply chains. Recently, a variety of material-based technologies have been developed and employed for separations and resource recovery in water. Judicious selection and design of these materials to tune their properties for targeting specific solutes is central to realizing the potential of water as a source for critical resources. Here, the materials that are developed for membranes, sorbents, catalysts, electrodes, and interfacial solar steam generators that demonstrate promise for applications in critical resource recovery are reviewed. In addition, a critical perspective is offered on the grand challenges and key research directions that need to be addressed to improve their practical viability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Redefining Net-Zero Water for Resilient Aquifers

Groundwater has long been a critical source of potable water, supplying one-third of all global water withdrawals and providing strategic reserves in times of drought (Konikow, 2012; Famiglietti, 2014). The risk in relying on groundwater is that it is often pumped at rates far greater than it can be naturally replenished. With increasing population and a changing climate, the depletion of potable water supplies has become an ever-growing concern (Srinivasan et al., 2012). Recently, the concept of “resilience” has been applied to groundwater, leaving many questions to be explored in terms of what resilience should mean for aquifers (Foster and MacDonald, 2014; Grönwall and Oduro-Kwarteng, 2017). The term is commonly used to indicate resilience to impacts of climate change specifically, but here we consider resilience in the context of more general water insecurity. Relatedly, the concept of “sustainable yield” has emerged in an attempt to determine a metric that can ensure the long-term resilience of groundwater systems, but the definition is fraught with inherent uncertainties and its quantification poses challenges (Rudestam and Langridge, 2014; Grönwall and Oduro-Kwarteng, 2017). At the heart of these concepts is a focus on sustainable management of aquifers. A sustainable approach to managing groundwater resources usually involves balancing long-term abstraction with the long-term recharge taking into account the needs for environmental flows and implementing drought-preparedness measures (Robins et al. 2006; Foster and MacDonald, 2014). At a high level, a sustainable balance of groundwater abstraction versus aquifer recharge may be considered “Net Zero” (NZ) or “Net Positive” (NP) in cases where recharge is equal to or in excess of abstraction, respectively. However, NZ/NP water management programs that address these concerns have varied definitions of compliance, which include considerations for the application at hand (ILFI, 2020; USGBC, 2020). Locations with high risk of low or poor water supply may be particularly interested in pursuing NZ/NP water. The AQUEDUCT Water Risk Atlas (World Resources Institute, 2019) indicates long-term availability, providing risk levels for quantity and quality of water at specific locations across the globe, for existing and predicted future conditions. This paper follows the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) NZ water definition adopted by the U.S. Army for use at their installations, including Army Reserve Centers (ARCs). This definition also relates to the U.S. Army’s current focus on water resilience, which includes short-term and long-term availability of water resources.

net zero water, HUC12, Saipan, American Samoa, Mau↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evolution of Electric Sector Water Use Under Alternative Electricity Futures

Increasing competition for water resources in the United States could create future challenges for allocating and using thermal cooling water in the U.S. electric power sector. While thermal power plant retirements and the growth of wind and solar technologies can reduce national aggregate power sector cooling water use, local water constraints and growing demand for agricultural or municipal supply could create greater needs for higher-cost alternative water supplies such as groundwater or recycled wastewater. For some regions, these incentives could change future electricity planning and operational decisions. These relationships and impacts are studied here using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a national electric sector planning model that has recently been upgraded to include a highly detailed representation of thermal cooling water demand and supply. Thermal power technologies are differentiated by both cooling technology and water source type to track and constrain thermal cooling water use in a way that incorporates both physical and legal water considerations in the United States. This capability is exercised under a range of electricity sector futures with alternative technology costs, fuel prices, and water constraints to illustrate ways that U.S. electric sector water use could evolve under uncertain future electric sector drivers. In exploring changes to regional generation and transmission planning and operation, water requirements, and cost, we highlight the environmental and economic impacts of future power sector water decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integration of CO 2 capture and microalgae cultivation: demonstration assessment of outdoor Scenedesmus acutus cultivation using gaseous ammonia as a nitrogen source

Towards the goal of integrating CO 2 capture using aqueous ammonia with its utilization for algae cultivation, Scenedesmus acutus (UTEX B72) was grown in 1100 L open raceway ponds using CO 2 and NH 3 supplied from gas cylinders. CO 2 /NH 3 mole ratios of 7 and 10 were employed, the gas mixture acting as a surrogate for the output from a CO 2 scrubbing system using aqueous ammonia. Compared to Scenedesmus acutus grown in open ponds using gaseous CO 2 and NaNO 3 as the N-source, the ponds supplied with gaseous CO 2 and NH 3 displayed higher productivity at both CO 2 /NH 3 ratios, with the higher ratio providing the best growth. Depending on the culturing conditions and CO 2 /NH 3 ratio, CO 2 utilization ranged up to 15.8% and NH 3 utilization to 23.0%. These rather low values reflect the fact the high CO 2 /NH 3 feed rate used, resulting in a substantial release of NH 3 from the ORPs (~45%). Finally, these findings demonstrate the suitability of gaseous NH 3 as a N-source for microalgae cultivation, while highlighting the need for a control strategy that closely balances the CO 2 /NH 3 supply with the algae growth rate. The produced algae biomass possessed a high protein and low ash content, rendering it particularly suitable for use as a bioplastic feedstock.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Compartment-specific energy requirements of photosynthetic carbon metabolism in Camelina sativa leaves

Abstract Main conclusion The oxidative pentose phosphate pathway provides cytosolic NADPH yet reduces carbon and energy use efficiency. Repressing this pathway and introducing cytosolic NADPH-dependent malate dehydrogenase may increase crop yields by ≈5%. Abstract Detailed knowledge about plant energy metabolism may aid crop improvements. Using published estimates of flux through central carbon metabolism, we phenotype energy metabolism in illuminated Camelina sativa leaves (grown at 22 °C, 500 µmol photons m −2 s −1 ) and report several findings. First, the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway (OPPP) transfers 3.3% of the NADPH consumed in the Calvin–Benson cycle to the cytosol. NADPH supply proceeds at about 10% of the rate of net carbon assimilation. However, concomitantly respired CO 2 accounts for 4.8% of total rubisco activity. Hence, 4.8% of the flux through the Calvin–Benson cycle and photorespiration is spent on supplying cytosolic NADPH, a significant investment. Associated energy requirements exceed the energy output of the OPPP. Thus, autotrophic carbon metabolism is not simply optimised for flux into carbon sinks but sacrifices carbon and energy use efficiency to support cytosolic energy metabolism. To reduce these costs, we suggest bioengineering plants with a repressed cytosolic OPPP, and an inserted cytosolic NADPH-dependent malate dehydrogenase tuned to compensate for the loss in OPPP activity (if required). Second, sucrose cycling is a minor investment in overall leaf energy metabolism but a significant investment in cytosolic energy metabolism. Third, leaf energy balancing strictly requires oxidative phosphorylation, cofactor export from chloroplasts, and peroxisomal NADH import. Fourth, mitochondria are energetically self-sufficient. Fifth, carbon metabolism has an ATP/NADPH demand ratio of 1.52 which is met if ≤ 21.7% of whole electron flux is cyclic. Sixth, electron transport has a photon use efficiency of ≥ 62%. Last, we discuss interactions between the OPPP and the cytosolic oxidation–reduction cycle in supplying leaf cytosolic NADPH.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Manganese uptake by red maples in response to mineral dissolution rates in soil

Manganese (Mn) is an essential plant micronutrient that influences photosynthesis, ecosystem productivity, and soil carbon storage. Our objective was to quantify how Mn uptake by forest vegetation relates to Mn release into soil solution through mineral dissolution. In this work, a greenhouse pot experiment was conducted to quantify Mn uptake by red maple saplings as a function of mineral solubility to test whether Mn uptake was limited by the supply of Mn to soil solution. Differences in soil microbial community composition between treatments, particularly amongst Mn cycling bacteria and fungi, were also evaluated to assess potential microbial impacts on observed Mn fluxes. Plant Mn uptake was highest in systems supplied with dissolved Mn(II) because it was not kinetically limited by mineral weathering. Mn uptake was also higher in systems supplied with a fast-weathering substrate (shale containing Mn(II)-bearing pyrite) than a slow-weathering substrate (Mn(IV)-oxide). However, vegetation accumulated a decreasing proportion of available Mn with increasing solubility, indicating that uptake was tempered relative to solubility. The presence of bacterial phyla containing known Mn-oxidizing bacteria indicates the potential for Mn-oxidizing bacteria to influence Mn solubility within Mn-oxide and dissolved Mn treatments. A relatively low abundance of these bacteria points to their limited capacity to oxidize and retain Mn in the shale treatments, consistent with substantial Mn leaching. We conclude that Mn uptake was primarily controlled by dissolution rates of Mn-bearing minerals but modified by biological processes. The quantitative framework presented here can guide understanding of how biogeochemical processes control element cycling between plants and soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nitrogen fixation rates in the Guinea Dome and the equatorial upwelling regions in the Atlantic Ocean

Abstract Biological nitrogen fixation is a key process balancing the loss of combined nitrogen in the marine nitrogen cycle. Its relevance in upwelling or high nutrient regions is still unclear, with the few available studies in these regions of the ocean reporting rates that vary widely from below detection limit to > 100 nmol N L −1 d −1 . In the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, two open ocean upwelling systems are active in boreal summer. One is the seasonal equatorial upwelling, where the residual phosphorus associated with aged upwelled waters is suggested to enhance nitrogen fixation in this season. The other is the Guinea Dome, a thermal upwelling dome. We conducted two surveys along 23° W across the Guinea Dome and the Equator from 15° N to 5° S in September 2015 and August–September 2016 with high latitudinal resolution (20–60 nm between stations). The abundance of Trichodesmium colonies was characterized by an Underwater Vision Profiler 5 and the total biological nitrogen fixation in the euphotic layer was measured using the 15 N 2 technique. The highest abundances of Trichodesmium colonies were found in the area of the Guinea Dome (9°–15° N) with a maximum of 3 colonies L −1 near the surface. By contrast, colonies were almost absent in the Equatorial band between 2° N and 5° S. The highest nitrogen fixation rate was measured at the northern edge of the Guinea Dome in 2016 (ca. 31 nmol N L −1 d −1 ). In this region, where diazotrophs thrived on a sufficient supply of both phosphorus and iron, a patchy distribution was unveiled by our increased spatial resolution scheme. In the Equatorial band, rates were considerably lower, ranging from below detection limit to ca. 4 nmol N L −1 d −1 , with a clear difference in magnitude between 2015 (rates close to zero) and 2016 (average rates around 2 nmol N L −1 d −1 ). This difference seemed triggered by a contrasting supply of phosphorus between years. Our study stresses the importance of surveys with sampling at fine-scale spatial resolution, and shows unexpected high variability in the rates of nitrogen fixation in the Guinea Dome, a region where diazotrophy is a significant process supplying new nitrogen into the euphotic layer.

Fernández-Carrera, Ana (ORCID:0000000183470996)↗

DOE OSTI2020

An overview of the Energy Modeling Forum 33rd study: Assessing large-scale global bioenergy deployment for managing climate change

Previous studies have projected a significant role for bioenergy in decarbonizing the global economy and helping realize international climate goals such as limiting global average warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. However, with significant variability in bioenergy results and significant concerns about potential environmental and social implications, greater transparency and dedicated assessment of the underlying modeling and results and more detailed understanding of the potential role of bioenergy are needed. Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) initiated a 33rd study (EMF-33) to explore the viability of large-scale bioenergy as part of a comprehensive climate management strategy. This special issue presents the papers of the EMF-33 study—a multi-year inter-model comparison project designed to understand and assess global, long-run, biomass supply and bioenergy deployment potentials and related uncertainties. Using a novel scenario design with independent biomass supply and bioenergy demand protocols, EMF-33 separately elucidates and explores the modeling of biomass feedstock supplies and bioenergy technologies and their deployment—revealing, comparing, and assessing the modeling that is suggesting that bioenergy could be a key climate containment strategy. This introduction provides an overview of the EMF-33 study design and the overview, thematic, and individual modeling team papers and types of insights that make up this special issue. By providing enhanced transparency and new detailed insights, we hope to inform policy dialogue about the potential role of bioenergy and facilitate new research.

Rose, Steven K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chloride Molten Salt Electrolysis Enables Integrated and Energy-Efficient Process for NdFeB Magnet Fabrication

Rare-earth elements (REEs) have been identified by NATO, the USDOE, and USGS as critical materials, i.e., materials which have significant demand yet pose supply-chain risks. Many of the existing processes for separations, metallization, and final parts production used across the REE supply chain involve energy intensive steps. For example, neodymium (Nd or NdPr) is produced using oxyfluoride electrolysis of Nd 2 O 3 , which requires hydrofluoric acid to produce a key electrolyte component (NdF 3 ) and generates undesired perfluorocarbon (PFC) gases. Such challenges make securing a resilient supply chain for NdFeB permanent magnets in countries like the United States prohibitively difficult. Here, we propose a chloride-based MSE process that circumvents these challenges, delivering high-purity NdPr from a (NdPr)Cl 3 feed from upstream REE separations. This eliminates environmentally-damaging steps of oxalate or carbonate precipitation and calcination, and enables superior production rates due to greater solubility of (NdPr)Cl 3 in chloride melts compared to Nd 2 O 3 . We show that CMSE generates high-purity NdPr (99.4 wt.%) while being energy-efficient (~ 6 kWh/kg-Nd). NdPr from CMSE was used to fabricate a NdFeB magnet with an excellent maximum energy product (> 40 MGOe), comparable to commercially available NdFeB magnets. This establishes CMSE as a leading approach for integrated, energy-efficient NdFeB magnet production.

Materials science↗

DOE OSTI2022

How Cerium and Lanthanum as Coproducts Promote Stable Rare Earth Production and New Alloys

The largest outputs of rare earth mining are the low-value byproducts cerium and lanthanum, which burden rare earth supply chains because they must be separated from more desirable rare earths used in magnet production. Promoting demand for cerium and lanthanum can potentially diversify the economics of rare earth mining and improve supply chain stability for all rare earth elements. A promising avenue for increasing byproduct rare earth element demand is their use in aluminum alloys; an application for cerium and lanthanum offering multiple benefits to manufacturing such as energy reduction and improved throughput. Experimental materials science and economic implications of Al-rare earth element alloys will be discussed. We show that Al–La/Ce alloys have elevated mechanical strength compared to more traditional aluminum alloys, in some formulations can be used without heat treatment, and possess a highly castable eutectic microstructure. This report presents the use of cerium and lanthanum in aluminum alloys as an example of how supply chain focused approaches to technological development can benefit stakeholders at every step in production.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Seasonality and trade in hydro-heavy electricity markets: A case study with the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP)

Hydroelectric power plants account for 25% of West Africa's total installed capacity. In general, electricity generated by these plants is seasonal and intra-annual fluctuation has a considerable impact on electricity supply and cross-border electricity trade. We soft-linked a global hydrologic model to a multi-region capacity expansion and planning model for the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP) to examine the effects of seasonality in hydropower electricity generation on electricity trade, as well as the economic benefits of unconstrained cross-border electricity trade. We found that transitioning from rainy to dry season decreases hydroelectricity generation by an average of 40% in a normal year across the region. Between 2018 and 2050, satisfying the region's electricity demand will require significant capital investment; nevertheless, extending from current bilateral electricity trade agreements to a fully competitive cross-border electricity trade will result in net annual savings of $3 billion in 2015 USD. To achieve year-round energy security, countries should plan ahead and diversify their energy sources to ensure that supply reliability can be maintained in the case of lower supply during the dry season.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles

Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗