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DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Mean State Cloud Properties in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Accurately simulating clouds remains a key challenge in global climate models, primarily because cloud formation involves sub-grid processes that are parameterized and crudely represented in models. This study examines the performance of DOE's Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) in simulating cloud properties and their spatio-temporal distribution by comparing against satellite observations. Two horizontal resolutions of SCREAM (3 and 12 km) are examined, and both depict a realistic spatial structure of mean-state cloud cover but underestimate its global mean magnitude. SCREAM 3 km reasonably reproduces the distribution of mean-state cloud properties across various cloud optical thickness and cloud-top pressure regimes, with performance comparable to CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble and marginally outperforming SCREAM 12 km. Still, SCREAM 3 km tends to underpredict low clouds and optically thin clouds, highlighting the need for continued improvement in representing unresolved processes. This study provides a basis for confidence in the representation of clouds in SCREAM, as simulating mean-state clouds is a necessary prerequisite for trusting its cloud responses to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Floquet operator dynamics and orthogonal polynomials on the unit circle

Operator spreading under stroboscopic time evolution under a unitary is studied. An operator Krylov space is constructed and mapped to orthogonal polynomials on a unit circle (OPUC), as well as to the Krylov space of the edge operator of the Floquet transverse field Ising model with inhomogeneous couplings (ITFIM). The Verblunsky coefficients in the OPUC representation are related to the Krylov angles parametrizing the ITFIM. The relations between the OPUC and spectral functions are summarized and several applications are presented. These include derivation of analytic expressions for the OPUC under persistent m-periodic dynamics, and the numerical construction of the OPUC for autocorrelations of the homogeneous Floquet-Ising model as well as the Z 3 clock model. The numerically obtained Krylov angles of the Z 3 clock model with long-lived period tripled autocorrelations show a spatial periodicity of six, and this observation is used to develop an analytically solvable model for the ITFIM that mimics this behavior.

Floquet systems↗

NASA NTRS1980

Three-dimensional perspective software for representation of digital imagery data

A generalized three dimensional perspective software capability was developed within the framework of a low cost computer oriented geographically based information system using the Earth Resources Laboratory Applications Software (ELAS) operating subsystem. This perspective software capability, developed primarily to support data display requirements at the NASA/NSTL Earth Resources Laboratory, provides a means of displaying three dimensional feature space object data in two dimensional picture plane coordinates and makes it possible to overlay different types of information on perspective drawings to better understand the relationship of physical features. An example topographic data base is constructed and is used as the basic input to the plotting module. Examples are shown which illustrate oblique viewing angles that convey spatial concepts and relationships represented by the topographic data planes.

Junkin, B. G.↗

NASA NTRS2019

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential while Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. This paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results should be considered with care due to the highly uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for five scenarios: four hydrothermal (3.5km depth) and one EGS (4.5km depth). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

exclusions↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential While Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics: Preprint

exclusions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatial Signatures of Electron Correlation in Least-Squares Tensor Hypercontraction

Least Squares Tensor Hypercontraction (LS-THC) has received some attention in recent years as an approach to reduce the significant computational costs of wavefunc- tion based methods in quantum chemistry. However, previous work has demonstrated that the LS-THC factorization performs disproportionately worse in the description of wavefunction components (e.g. cluster amplitudes T 2 ) than Hamiltonian compo- nents (e.g. electron repulsion integrals (pq|rs)). This work develops novel theoretical methods to study the source of these errors in the context of the real-space T 2 kernel, and reports, for the first time, the existence of a “correlation feature” in the errors of the LS-THC representation of the “exchange-like” correlation energy EX and T 2 that is remarkably consistent across ten molecular species, three correlated wavefunctions, and four basis sets. This correlation feature portends the existence of a “pair-point kernel” missing in the usual LS-THC representation of the wavefunction, which critically depends upon pairs of grid points situated close to atoms and with inter-pair distances between one and two Bohr radii. These findings point the way for future LS-THC developments to address these shortcomings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations

Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Geothermal Supply Curves

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. The included paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results provided here should be considered with care due to the high uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for three scenarios: two hydrothermal (3.5km depth, USGS heat flow & SMU temperatures respectively) and one EGS (4.5km depth, SMU temperatures). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Variable Renewable Energy and Storage in the Power Sector

The emergence of variable renewable energy and battery storage technologies have fundamentally transformed the electric power sector and generated demand for analysis to understand their roles in future energy systems. Although unique characteristics of these resources are well-recognized and require more sophisticated methodologies to capture effectively, guidance is limited on best practices and research gaps. This paper selectively reviews recent literature and draws upon our collective modeling experience to offer recommendations to analysts and consumers of model outputs on approaches for modeling variable renewable energy and storage in long-term electric sector models. We focus on regional- and national-scale models with technological, temporal, and spatial detail given their prevalence in planning and policy analysis, though insights are applicable in other settings. The review highlights how the research frontier has advanced in representing renewables and energy storage over the past decade; however, given the many considerations involved with appropriately capturing salient economic and operational characteristics of renewables, there is a gap between commonly used models and state-of-the-art methods. Model simplifications can materially impact policy analysis associated with power sector decarbonization and high renewables deployment, and improving model representations of variable renewables can enhance insights for policymakers and other stakeholders. This review can point the way for improved methods for established models and designs for emerging ones.

energy and environmental policy↗

DOE OSTI2021

A restructured and updated global soil respiration database (SRDB-V5)

Field-measured soil respiration (R S , the soil-to-atmosphere CO 2 flux) observations were compiled into a global soil respiration database (SRDB) a decade ago, a resource that has been widely used by the biogeochemistry community to advance our understanding of R S dynamics. Novel carbon cycle science questions require updated and augmented global information with better interoperability among datasets. Here, we restructured and updated the global R S database to version SRDB-V5. The updated version has all previous fields revised for consistency and simplicity, and it has several new fields to include ancillary information (e.g., R S measurement time, collar insertion depth, collar area). The new SRDB-V5 includes published papers through 2017 (800 independent studies), where total observations increased from 6633 in SRDB-V4 to 10 366 in SRDB-V5. The SRDB-V5 features more R S data published in the Russian and Chinese scientific literature and has an improved global spatio-temporal coverage and improved global climate space representation. We also restructured the database so that it has stronger interoperability with other datasets related to carbon cycle science. For instance, linking SRDB-V5 with an hourly timescale global soil respiration database (HGRsD) and a community database for continuous soil respiration (COSORE) enables researchers to explore new questions. The updated SRDB-V5 aims to be a data framework for the scientific community to share seasonal to annual field R S measurements, and it provides opportunities for the biogeochemistry community to better understand the spatial and temporal variability in R S , its components, and the overall carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Implementation and operation of three fractal measurement algorithms for analysis of remote-sensing data

Fractal geometry is increasingly becoming a useful tool for modeling natural phenomena. As an alternative to Euclidean concepts, fractals allow for a more accurate representation of the nature of complexity in natural boundaries and surfaces. The purpose of this paper is to introduce and implement three algorithms in C code for deriving fractal measurement from remotely sensed data. These three methods are: the line-divider method, the variogram method, and the triangular prism method. Remote-sensing data acquired by NASA's Calibrated Airborne Multispectral Scanner (CAMS) are used to compute the fractal dimension using each of the three methods. These data were obtained as a 30 m pixel spatial resolution over a portion of western Puerto Rico in January 1990. A description of the three methods, their implementation in PC-compatible environment, and some results of applying these algorithms to remotely sensed image data are presented.

Jaggi, S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Representation of Nucleation Mode Microphysics in a Global Aerosol Model with Sectional Microphysics

In models, nucleation mode (1 nm<Dp <10 nm) particle microphysics can be represented explicitly with aerosol microphysical processes or can be parameterized to obtain the growth and survival of nuclei to the model's lower size boundary. This study investigates how the representation of nucleation mode microphysics impacts aerosol number predictions in the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics model running with the GISS GCM II-prime by varying its lowest diameter boundary: 1 nm, 3 nm, and 10 nm. The model with the 1 nm boundary simulates the nucleation mode particles with fully resolved microphysical processes, while the model with the 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries uses a nucleation mode dynamics parameterization to account for the growth of nucleated particles to 10 nm and 3 nm, respectively.We also investigate the impact of the time step for aerosol microphysical processes (a 10 min versus a 1 h time step) to aerosol number predictions in the TOMAS models with explicit dynamics for the nucleation mode particles (i.e., 3 nm and 1 nm boundary). The model with the explicit microphysics (i.e., 1 nm boundary) with the 10 min time step is used as a numerical benchmark simulation to estimate biases caused by varying the lower size cutoff and the time step. Different representations of the nucleation mode have a significant effect on the formation rate of particles larger than 10 nm from nucleated particles (J10) and the burdens and lifetimes of ultrafinemode (10 nm≤Dp ≤70 nm) particles but have less impact on the burdens and lifetimes of CCN-sized particles. The models using parameterized microphysics (i.e., 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries) result in higher J10 and shorter coagulation lifetimes of ultrafine-mode particles than the model with explicit dynamics (i.e., 1 nm boundary). The spatial distributions of CN10 (Dp ≥10 nm) and CCN(0.2 %) (i.e., CCN concentrations at 0.2%supersaturation) are moderately affected, especially CN10 predictions above ∼700 hPa where nucleation contributes most strongly to CN10 concentrations. The lowermost-layer CN10 is substantially improved with the 3 nm boundary (compared to 10 nm) in most areas. The overprediction in CN10 with the 3 nm and 10 nm boundaries can be explained by the overprediction of J10 or J3 with the parameterized microphysics, possibly due to the instantaneous growth rate assumption in the survival and growth parameterization. The errors in CN10 predictions are sensitive to the choice of the lower size boundary but not to the choice of the time step applied to the microphysical processes. The spatial distribution of CCN(0.2 %) with the 3 nm boundary is almost identical to that with the 1 nm boundary, but that with the 10 nm boundary can differ more than 10-40% in some areas. We found that the deviation in the 10 nm simulations is partly due to the longer time step (i.e., 1 h time step used in the 10 nm simulations compared to 10 min time step used in the benchmark simulations), but, even with the same time step, the 10 nm cutoff showed noticeably higher errors than the 3 nm cutoff. In conclusion, we generally recommend using a lower diameter boundary of 3 nm for studies focused on aerosol indirect effects but down to 1 nm boundary for studies focused on CN10 predictions or nucleation.

microphysics↗

NASA NTRS2009

Representations of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices in Versions 1 and 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM)

This study will document the behavior of the polar vortices in two versions of the GEOS CCM. Both versions of the model include the same stratospheric chemistry, They differ in the underlying circulation model. Version 1 of the GEOS CCM is based on the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, general circulation model which includes the finite-volume (Lin-Rood) dynamical core and physical parameterizations from Community Climate Model, Version 3. GEOS CCM Version 2 is based on the GEOS-5 GCM that includes a different tropospheric physics package. Baseline simulations of both models, performed at two-degree spatial resolution, show some improvements in Version 2, but also some degradation, In the Antarctic, both models show an over-persistent stratospheric polar vortex with late breakdown, but the year-to-year variations that are overestimated in Version I are more realistic in Version 2. The implications of this for the interactions with tropospheric climate, the Southern Annular Mode, will be discussed. In the Arctic both model versions show a dominant dynamically forced variabi;ity, but Version 2 has a persistent warm bias in the low stratosphere and there are seasonal differences in the simulations. These differences will be quantified in terms of climate change and ozone loss. Impacts of model resolution, using simulations at one-degree and half-degree, and changes in physical parameterizations (especially the gravity wave drag) will be discussed.

Pawson, S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

An efficient reconstruction algorithm for diffusion on triangular grids using the nodal discontinuous Galerkin method

High-energy-density (HED) hydrodynamics studies such as those relevant to inertial confinement fusion and astrophysics require highly disparate densities, temperatures, viscosities, and other diffusion parameters over relatively short spatial scales. This presents a challenge for high-order accurate methods to effectively resolve the hydrodynamics at these scales, particularly in the presence of highly disparate diffusion. A significant volume of engineering and physics applications use an unstructured discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method developed based on the finite element mesh generation and algorithmic framework. This work discusses the application of an affine reconstructed nodal DG method for unstructured grids of triangles. Solving the diffusion terms in the DG method is non-trivial due to the solution representations being piecewise continuous. Hence, the diffusive flux is not defined on the interface of elements. The proposed numerical approach reconstructs a smooth solution in a parallelogram that is enclosed by the quadrilateral formed by two adjacent triangle elements. The interface between these two triangles is the diagonal of the enclosed parallelogram. Similar to triangles, the mapping of parallelograms from a physical domain to a reference domain is an affine mapping, which is necessary for an accurate and efficient implementation of the numerical algorithm. Thus, all computations can still be performed on the reference domain, which promotes efficiency in computation and storage. This reconstruction does not make assumptions on choice of polynomial basis. Reconstructed DG algorithms have previously been developed for modal implementations of the convection–diffusion equations. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first practical guideline that has been proposed for applying the reconstructed algorithm on a nodal discontinuous Galerkin method with a focus on accuracy and efficiency. As a result, the algorithm is demonstrated on a number of benchmark cases as well as a challenging substantive problem in HED hydrodynamics with highly disparate diffusion parameters.

Computational efficiency↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Surface Heat Flux as a Function of Ground Cover for Climate Models

Surface heat fluxes were examined as a function of surface properties and meteorological conditions in a 100 km x 100 km grid square at 1-km spatial resolution centered at the location of the First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment (FIFE), the Forest Ecosystem Dynamics site in central Maine, and a semiarid rangeland site around Walnut Gulch, Arizona. This investigation treats the surface heat flux variability within a GCM grid box to provide insight into methods for treating that variability in climate models. The heat fluxes were calculated using NOAA AVHRR and available meteorological data. The average heat fluxes that were estimated using the various area ground-cover representations were compared with the ensemble average heat fluxes for the entire area, which were assumed to be the best representation of the heat fluxes for the areas. Average beat fluxes were estimated for the entire 100 km x 100 km area based on a single ground-cover representation, and the mean error for the area sensible heat flux was about 10% and for the area latent heat flux, 21%. The estimation error was reduced, and in some cases significantly reduced, when the area heat fluxes were estimated by partitioning the area according to significant ground cover. The most significant effect of the partitioning was on the latent heat flux estimates.

Vukovich, Fred M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Remote sensing from unoccupied aerial systems: Opportunities to enhance Arctic plant ecology in a changing climate

The Arctic is warming at a faster rate than any other biome on Earth, resulting in widespread changes in vegetation composition, structure, and function that have important feedbacks to the global climate system. The heterogeneous nature of arctic landscapes creates challenges for monitoring and improving understanding of these ecosystems, as current efforts typically rely on ground, airborne, or satellite-based observations that are limited in space, time, or pixel resolution. The use of remote sensing instruments on small Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UASs) has emerged as an important tool to bridge the gap between detailed, but spatially limited ground-level measurements, and lower resolution, but spatially extensive high-altitude airborne and satellite observations. UASs allow researchers to view, describe and quantify vegetation dynamics at fine spatial scales (1-10 cm) over areas much larger than typical field plots. UASs can be deployed with a high degree of temporal flexibility, enabling observation across diurnal, seasonal, and annual timescales. In this work, we review how established and emerging UAS remote sensing technologies can enhance arctic plant ecological research by quantifying fine-scale vegetation patterns and processes, and by enhancing the ability to link ground-based measurements with broader-scale information obtained from airborne and satellite platforms. Synthesis: Improved ecological understanding and model representation of arctic vegetation is needed to forecast the fate of the Arctic in a rapidly changing climate. Observations from UASs provide an approach to address this need, however, the use of this technology in the Arctic currently remains limited. Here we share recommendations to better enable and encourage the use of UASs to improve the description, scaling, and model representation of arctic vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Challenging the Curse of Dimensionality in Multidimensional Numerical Integration by Using a Low-Rank Tensor-Train Format

Numerical integration is a basic step in the implementation of more complex numerical algorithms suitable, for example, to solve ordinary and partial differential equations. The straightforward extension of a one-dimensional integration rule to a multidimensional grid by the tensor product of the spatial directions is deemed to be practically infeasible beyond a relatively small number of dimensions, e.g., three or four. In fact, the computational burden in terms of storage and floating point operations scales exponentially with the number of dimensions. This phenomenon is known as the curse of dimensionality and motivated the development of alternative methods such as the Monte Carlo method. The tensor product approach can be very effective for high-dimensional numerical integration if we can resort to an accurate low-rank tensor-train representation of the integrand function. In this work, we discuss this approach and present numerical evidence showing that it is very competitive with the Monte Carlo method in terms of accuracy and computational costs up to several hundredths of dimensions if the integrand function is regular enough and a sufficiently accurate low-rank approximation is available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗