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DOE OSTI2022

Wildfire exacerbates high-latitude soil carbon losses from climate warming

Abstract Arctic and boreal permafrost soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition has been slower than carbon inputs from plant growth since the last glaciation. Anthropogenic climate warming has threatened this historical trend by accelerating SOC decomposition and altering wildfire regimes. We accurately modeled observed plant biomass and carbon emissions from wildfires in Alaskan ecosystems under current climate conditions. In projections to 2300 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, we found that warming and increased atmospheric CO 2 will result in plant biomass gains and higher litterfall. However, increased carbon losses from (a) wildfire combustion and (b) rapid SOC decomposition driven by increased deciduous litter production, root exudation, and active layer depth will lead to about 4.4 PgC of soil carbon losses from Alaska by 2300 and most (88%) of these loses will be from the top 1 m of soil. These SOC losses offset plant carbon gains, causing the ecosystem to transition to a net carbon source after 2200. Simulations excluding wildfire increases yielded about a factor of four lower SOC losses by 2300. Our results show that projected wildfire and its direct and indirect effects on plant and soil carbon may accelerate high-latitude soil carbon losses, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Low-intensity frequent fires in coniferous forests transform soil organic matter in ways that may offset ecosystem carbon losses

The impact of shifting disturbance regimes on soil carbon (C) storage is a key uncertainty in global change research. Wildfires in coniferous forests are becoming more frequent in many regions, potentially causing large C emissions. Repeated low-intensity prescribed fires can mitigate wildfire severity, but repeated combustion may decrease soil C unless compensatory responses stabilize soil organic matter. Here, we tested how 30 years of decadal prescribed burning affected C and nitrogen (N) in plants, detritus, and soils in coniferous forests in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA. Tree basal area and litter stocks were resilient to fire, but fire reduced forest floor C by 77% (-36.4 Mg C/ha). In mineral soils, fire reduced C that was free from minerals by 41% (-4.4 Mg C/ha) but not C associated with minerals, and only in depths ≤ 5 cm. Fire also transformed the properties of remaining mineral soil organic matter by increasing the proportion of C in a pyrogenic form (from 3.2% to 7.5%) and associated with minerals (from 46% to 58%), suggesting the remaining soil C is more resistant to decomposition. Laboratory assays illustrated that fire reduced microbial CO2 respiration rates by 55% and the activity of eight extracellular enzymes that degrade cellulosic and aromatic compounds by 40–66%. Lower decomposition was correlated with lower inorganic N (-49%), especially ammonium, suggesting N availability is coupled with decomposition. The relative increase in forms of soil organic matter that are resistant to decay or stabilized onto mineral surfaces, and the associated decline in decomposition suggest that low-intensity fires may promote mineral soil C storage in pools with long mean residence times in coniferous forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

Studies on the Mechanisms of Microbial Adaptation to the Physical Environment

The environmental factors which affect humans and other animals also influence the microorganisms which are such an important part of our ecology. Some of the microorganisms are very closely associated with animals, living in the digestive tract and synthesizing essential nutrients for the host. For these microbes, most external physical changes are of little consequence, because they are well shielded by the animals' homeostatic systems. The vast majority of microorganisms, however, live free in nature, especially in the soil and oceans. It has been estimated that the upper 15 cm of a fertile soil may contain over 4000 kg of bacteria and fungi per hectare. These organisms are responsible for degrading the complex molecules of plants and animals when they die, eventually producing simple organics, carbon dioxide, and inorganics, which are then used for the next cycle of plant growth. It is believed that over 90 % of the biologically produced carbon dioxide results from the metabolic activity of bacteria and fungi. In addition to recycling plant nutrients, soil bacteria also provide new nutrients through 'fixation' of atmospheric nitrogen into ammonia and nitrate, the forms which can be used by plants. Microorganisms so have an enormous capacity for detoxifying both natural and man-made poisons. All of these functions of microorganisms are essential to the operation of the material cycles on Earth. This is true of all locations on the planet, regardless of the climate or other environmental factors. In fact, one of the most impressive attributes of microorganisms is their ability to adapt to every stable environment on Earth. These include such extremes as polar regions, hot springs, water saturated with salt, mountain tops, ocean depths, acid and alkaline waters, deserts, intense radioactivity, soil and water contaminated with toxic chemicals or petroleum, and areas devoid of oxygen.

Heinrich, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The Apollo 14 regolith - Petrology of cores 14210/14211 and 14220 and soils 14141, 14148, and 14149

New modal data are presented for continuous polished thin sections from double drive tube 14210/14211, and single drive tube 14220, and for polished grain mounts of four soils from the double drive tube, one from the single drive tube, and the soils 14148 (trench top), 14149 (trench bottom), and 14141 (Cone Crater). Modal data show that the Cone Crater soil is immature, whereas the 'smooth plains' soils are mature and rich in agglutinates and breccias. Neither core exhibits any major variations with depth. Microprobe analyses of mineral and glass fragments are consistent with derivation of the soils predominantly from the local rocks, with about 5-11% exotic mare component indicated by the modal data. About 4% of the glasses are SiO2- and K2O-rich granitic glasses which are comminuted mesostasis from the local melt rocks. The soils are depleted in feldspar relative to the source rocks. The preferred explanation for this depletion is that feldspar is concentrated in the less than 10 microns fines and is consumed in the formation of agglutinates, regolith breccias, and feldspathic glass.

Simon, S. B.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of 18 Satellite- and Model-Based Soil Moisture Products Using in Situ Measurements From 826 Sensors

Information about the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture is critical for many purposes, including monitoring of hydrologic extremes, irrigation scheduling, and prediction of agricultural yields. We evaluated the temporal dynamics of 18 state-of-the-art (quasi-)global near-surface soil moisture products, including six based on satellite retrievals, six based on models without satellite data assimilation (referred to hereafter as “open-loop” models), and six based on models that assimilate satellite soil moisture or brightness temperature data. Seven of the products are introduced for the first time in this study: one multi-sensor merged satellite product called MeMo (Merged soil Moisture) and six estimates from the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model with three precipitation inputs (ERA5, IMERG, and MSWEP) with and without assimilation of SMAPL3E satellite retrievals, respectively. As reference, we used in situ soil moisture measurements between 2015 and 2019 at 5 cm depth from 826 sensors, located primarily in the USA and Europe. The 3-hourly Pearson correlation (R) was chosen as the primary performance metric. We found that application of the Soil Wetness Index (SWI) smoothing filter resulted in improved performance for all satellite products. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the four single-sensor satellite products was SMAPL3E SWI , SMOS SWI , AMSR2 SWI , and ASCAT SWI , with the L-band-based SMAPL3E SWI (median R of 0.72) outperforming the others at 50 % of the sites. Among the two multi-sensor satellite products (MeMo and ESA-CCI SWI ), MeMo performed better on average (median R of 0.72 versus 0.67), probably due to the inclusion of SMAPL3E SWI . The best-to-worst performance ranking of the six open-loop models was HBV-MSWEP, HBV-ERA5, ERA5-Land, HBV-IMERG, VIC-PGF, and GLDAS-Noah. This ranking largely reflects the quality of the precipitation forcing. HBV-MSWEP (median R of 0.78) performed best not just among the open-loop models but among all products. The calibration of HBV improved the median R by +0.12 on average compared to random parameters, highlighting the importance of model calibration. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the six models with satellite data assimilation was HBV-MSWEP+SMAPL3E, HBV-ERA5+SMAPL3E, GLEAM, SMAPL4, HBV-IMERG+SMAPL3E, and ERA5. The assimilation of SMAPL3E retrievals into HBV-IMERG improved the median R by +0.06, suggesting that data assimilation yields significant benefits at the global scale.

Hylke E. Beck↗

DOE OSTI2023

Throughfall-Reduction Drying Effects on Soil Respiration, Moisture, and Temperature in Four Distinct Lowland Panamanian Forests from 2015-2022

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet effects on soil properties across moisture and soil gradients within tropical forests remain poorly characterized, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We hypothesized that throughfall reduction (i.e. chronic drying) would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests by further reductions in soil moisture, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis and soil saturation. We conducted a field study in four distinct lowland Panamanian forests that vary in background rainfall and soil fertility. In each forest we constructed throughfall reduction structures that reduce moisture inputs to plots by ~50% (see methods). In drying and paired control plots we measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture (volume/volume), soil temperature (°C), air temperature (°C), and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022). We also collected litterfall biomass and surveyed all tree species for diameter at breast height (dbh), and identified tree species in 2018 and 2019.Results:We found that soil moisture peaked in the wet season and declined in the dry season. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. Chronic throughfall exclusion also suppressed soil moisture across the four forests, and also initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests. There was sustained suppression of soil CO2 fluxes after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils, as the drying effect increased with time. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks. Datasets included: Datasets included here include .csv and .xls files for soil respiration (carbon dioxide flux) collected using the LiCor (see methods), air temperature °C , soil moisture (vl/vl), and soil temperature °C. Soil moisture and soil temperature were collected at 0-10cm depths using hand-held probes (see methods). Data are on ~3 week timescales from 2015-2022 with some gaps. There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site). No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Low-Cost X-Ray CT System for Imaging of Roots

The goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate an innovative, low cost, field deployable, stationary 3D x-ray computed tomography (CT) system that will image total root phenotypes with a micron size resolution at a throughput of hundreds of plants per cycle. This system is based on UHV’s unique low cost linear x-ray tube technology and sophisticated reconstruction & image segmentation algorithms developed at University of Massachusetts, Lowel and University of Nottingham; and was tested for several types of soils at University of Wisconsin and Texas A&M University. Currently, no technologies exist that have been designed to image roots in complex media such as agricultural field conditions. Due to its small size, high resolution & fast imaging of fine roots, low power consumption, large penetration depth (i.e. ability to see through several feet of soil) and ease of field deployability, this CT system will increase the speed and efficacy of discovery, field translation, and deployment of improved crops and systems that improve soil carbon accumulation and storage, decrease N2O emissions, and improve water efficiency leading towards advancements that could mitigate 10% of the total US Greenhouse gases. This degree of imaging in the field has never been available and would be invaluable to scientists in understanding how environmental conditions and phenotypic variations contribute to carbon deposition through root development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

A multi-frequency measurement of thermal microwave emission from soils: The effects of soil texture and surface roughness

An experiment on remote sensing of soil moisture content was conducted over bare fields with microwave radiometers at the frequencies of 1.4 GHz, 5 GHz, and 10.7 GHz during July - September of 1981. Three bare fields with different surface roughnesses and soil textures were prepared for the experiment. Ground truth acquisition of soil temperatures and moisture contents for 5 layers down to the depths of 15 cm was made concurrently with radiometric measurements. The experimental results show that the effect of surface roughness is to increase the soils' brightness temperature and to reduce the slope of regression between brightness temperature and moisture content. The slopes of regression for soils with different textures are found to be comparable, and the effect of soil texture is reflected in the difference of regression line intercepts at brightness temperature axis. The result is consistent with laboratory measurement of soils' dielectric permittivity. Measurements on wet smooth bare fields give lower brightness temperatures at 5 GHz than at 1.4 GHz.

Wang, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A multi-frequency measurement of thermal microwave emission from soils - The effect of soil texture and surface roughness

An experiment on remote sensing of soil moisture content was conducted over bare fields with microwave radiometers at the frequencies of 1.4 GHz, 5 GHz, and 10.7 GHz during July September of 1981. Three bare fields with different surface roughneses and soil textures were prepared for the experiment. Ground truth acquisition of soil temperatures and moisture contents for 5 layers down to the depth of 15 cm was made concurrently with radiometric measurements. The experimental results show that the effect of surface roughness is to increase the soils' brightness temperature and to reduce the slope of regression between brightness temperature and moisture content. The slopes of regression for soils with different textures are found to be comparable, and the effect of soil texture is reflected in the difference of regression line intercepts at brightness temperature axis. The result is consistent with laboratory measurement of soils' dielectric permittivity. Measurements on wet smooth bare fields give lower brightness temperatures at 5 GHz than at 1.4 GHz. Previously announced in STAR as N82-24550

Wang, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Modification of Roberts' Theory for Rocket Exhaust Plumes Eroding Lunar Soil

Roberts' model of lunar soil erosion beneath a landing rocket has been updated in several ways to predict the effects of future lunar landings. The model predicts, among other things, the number of divots that would result on surrounding hardware due to the impact of high velocity particulates, the amount and depth of surface material removed, the volume of ejected soil, its velocity, and the distance the particles travel on the Moon. The results are compared against measured results from the Apollo program and predictions are made for mitigating the spray around a future lunar outpost.

Metzger, Philip T.↗

DOE OSTI2021

BAWLD-CH 4 : a comprehensive dataset of methane fluxes from boreal and arctic ecosystems

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the boreal and arctic region are globally significant and highly sensitive to climate change. There is currently a wide range in estimates of high-latitude annual CH 4 fluxes, where estimates based on land cover inventories and empirical CH 4 flux data or process models (bottom-up approaches) generally are greater than atmospheric inversions (top-down approaches). A limitation of bottom-up approaches has been the lack of harmonization between inventories of site-level CH 4 flux data and the land cover classes present in high-latitude spatial datasets. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of small-scale, surface CH 4 flux data from 540 terrestrial sites (wetland and non-wetland) and 1247 aquatic sites (lakes and ponds), compiled from 189 studies. The Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Methane Dataset (BAWLD-CH 4 ) was constructed in parallel with a compatible land cover dataset, sharing the same land cover classes to enable refined bottom-up assessments. BAWLD-CH 4 includes information on site-level CH 4 fluxes but also on study design (measurement method, timing, and frequency) and site characteristics (vegetation, climate, hydrology, soil, and sediment types, permafrost conditions, lake size and depth, and our determination of land cover class). The different land cover classes had distinct CH 4 fluxes, resulting from definitions that were either based on or co-varied with key environmental controls. Fluxes of CH 4 from terrestrial ecosystems were primarily influenced by water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition, while CH 4 fluxes from aquatic ecosystems were primarily influenced by water temperature, lake size, and lake genesis. Models could explain more of the between-site variability in CH 4 fluxes for terrestrial than aquatic ecosystems, likely due to both less precise assessments of lake CH 4 fluxes and fewer consistently reported lake site characteristics. Analysis of BAWLD-CH 4 identified both land cover classes and regions within the boreal and arctic domain, where future studies should be focused, alongside methodological approaches. Overall, BAWLD-CH 4 provides a comprehensive dataset of CH 4 emissions from high-latitude ecosystems that are useful for identifying research opportunities, for comparison against new field data, and model parameterization or validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1971

Bulk, rare earth and other trace elements in Apollo 14 and 15 and Luna 16 samples

The chemical abundances were measured by instrumental and radiochemical neutron activation analysis in a variety of lunar specimens. Apollo 14 soils are characterized by significant enrichments of Al2O3, Na2O and K2O and depletions of TiO2, FeO, MnO and Cr2O3 relative to Apollo 11 and to most of Apollo 12 soils. The uniform abundances in 14230 core tube soils and three other Apollo 14 soils indicate that the regolith is uniform to at least 22 cm depth and within approximately 200 m from the lunar module. Two Luna 16 breccias are similar in composition to Luna 16 soils. Four Apollo 15 soils (LM, STA 4, 9, and 9a) have variable compositions. Interelement correlations between MnO-FeO, Sc-FeO, V-Cr2O3 and K2O-Hf negate the hypothesis that howardite achondrites may be primitive lunar matter, argue against the fission hypothesis for the origin of the moon, and precludes any selective large scale volatilization of alkalies during lunar magmatic events.

Laul, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Bright soil units on Mars determined from ISM imaging spectrometer data

The lithology of bright Martian soil provides evidence for chemical and physical processes that have modified the planet's surface. Data from the ISM imaging spectrometer, which observed much of the equatorial region at a spatial resolution of approximately 22 km, cover the NIR wavelength range critical to ascertaining the presence and abundance of Fe-containing phases, hydroxylated silicates, and H2O in the bright soil. ISM data previously have revealed spatial variations in depth of the 3.0-microns H2O absorption suggesting differences in water content, a weak absorption at 2.2 microns indicative of metal-OH in phyllosilicate, and variations in the 1-micron Fe absorption indicative of differences in Fe mineralogy. This paper summarizes first results of a systematic investigation of spectral heterogeneity in bright soils observed by ISM. At least seven 'units' with distinctive properties were discriminated. Comparison of their spatial distributions with Viking data shows that they generally correspond with previously recognized morphologic, color, and thermal features. These correspondences and the units' spectral attributes provide evidence for lithologic differences between the soils in different geologic settings.

Murchie, Scott↗

DOE OSTI2025

From the top: surface-derived carbon fuels greenhouse gas production at depth in a peatland

Tropical peatlands play an important role in global carbon (C) cycling, but little is known about factors driving carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) emissions from these ecosystems, especially production in deeper soils. This study aimed to identify source material and processes regulating C emissions originating deep in three sites in a peatland on the Caribbean coast of Panama. We hypothesized that (1) surface-derived organic matter transported down the soil profile is the primary C source for respiration products at depth and that (2) high lignin content results in hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis as the dominant CH 4 production pathway throughout the profile. We used radiocarbon isotopic values to determine whether CO 2 and CH 4 at depth are produced from modern substrates or ancient deep peat, and we used stable C isotopes to identify the dominant CH 4 production pathway. Peat organic chemistry was characterized using 13 C solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( 13 C-NMR). We found that deep peat respiration products had radiocarbon signatures that were more similar to surface dissolved organic C (DOC) than deep solid peat. These results indicate that surface-derived organic matter was the dominant source for gas production at depth in this peatland, likely because of vertical transport of DOC from the surface to depth. Lignin, which was the most abundant compound (55 %–70 % of C), increased with depth across these sites, whereas other C compounds like carbohydrates did not vary with depth. These results suggest that there is no preferential decomposition of carbohydrates but instead preferential retention of lignin. Stable isotope signatures of respiration products indicated that hydrogenotrophic rather than acetoclastic methanogenesis was the dominant production pathway of CH 4 throughout the peat profile. These results show that deep C in tropical peatlands does not contribute greatly to surface fluxes of carbon dioxide, with compounds like lignin preferentially retained. This protection of deep C helps explain how peatland C is retained over thousands of years and points to the vulnerability of this C should anaerobic conditions in these wet ecosystems change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quarterly Soil Core and Root Analyses from the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) Site, Ashland, Missouri, 2017-2023

This dataset contains quarterly soil core measurements from the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site located at the University of Missouri’s Thomas H. Baskett Wildlife Research and Education Area near Ashland, Missouri. These data will be used to parameterize an ensemble of MOFLUX-optimized soil carbon-nitrogen models, used to simulate carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling responses to future hydroclimatic scenarios and the trajectory of soil C stocks with concomitant forest decline. Beginning in 2017, eight soil cores were collected approximately quarterly near plot 1 of the southeast transect, near the automated soil respiration flux chambers, from 0–15 cm depth. Data are currently available through 2023 (2017-06-14 to 2023-11-13); additional observations will be appended to this dataset as they become available. Cores were analyzed for gravimetric moisture content, pH, total carbon and nitrogen, texture, microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen, and extractable dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen. This dataset contains one data file in comma separate (*.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Iron and Phosphorus Geochemistry in High-Centered and Low-Centered Polygon Soils from the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2015

This dataset provides chemical characterization of soil cores obtained in triplicate from center and trough positions of a high-centered polygon and center, ridge, and trough positions of a low-centered polygon in the NGEE Arctic research area within the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Utqiagvik, Alaska. Photographs of the 15 collected cores are provided. Cores were collected to thaw depth in early October 2015 and subsequently divided into subsamples for analysis, which included bulk soil horizons (organic or mineral) and finer scale depth increments (minimum 4 cm thickness per increment). Bulk horizons and depth increments were characterized using sequential chemical extractions for Fe and P and with Fe K-edge x-ray absorption spectroscopy. Additional soil parameters such as loss-on-ignition, gravimetric water content, and carbon and nitrogen concentrations were also quantified for bulk horizons. This dataset includes four csv files, one pdf user guide, and one zip folder of *.jpg photos.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Water level changes in Lake Erie drive 21st century CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from a coastal temperate wetland

Wetland water depth influences microbial and plant communities, which can alter the above- and below-ground carbon cycling of a wetland. Wetland water depths are likely to change due to shifting precipitation patterns, which will affect projections of greenhouse gas emissions; however, these effects are rarely incorporated into wetland greenhouse gas models. Seeking to address this gap, we used a mechanistic model, ecosys, to simulate a range of water depth scenarios in a temperate wetland, and analyzed simulated predictions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) andmethane (CH 4 ) fluxes over the 21st century. We tested our model using eddy covariance measurements of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes collected at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC) during 2015 and 2016. OWC is a lacustrine, estuarine, freshwater, mineral-soil marsh. An empirical model found that the wetland water depth is highly dependent on the water depth of the nearby Lake Erie. Future wetland surface water depths were modeled based on projection of Lake Erie's water depth using four separate NOAA projections, resulting in four wetland water-depth scenarios. Two of the four 21st century projections for Lake Erie water depths used in this study indicated that the water depth of the wetland would remain nearly steady; however, the other two indicated decreases in the wetland water depth. In our scenario where the wetland dries out, we project the wetland's climatological warming effect will decrease due to smaller CH 4 fluxes to the atmosphere and larger CO 2 uptake by the wetland. We also found that increased water level can lower emissions by shifting the site towards more open water areas, which have lower CH 4 emissions. We found that decreased water depths would cause more widespread colonization of the wetland by macrophyte vegetation. Using an empirical relationship, we also found that further drying could result in other, non-wetland vegetation to emerge, dramatically altering soil carbon cycling. In three of our four projections, we found that in general the magnitude of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes steadily increase over the next 100 years in response to higher temperatures. However, in our driest simulations, we projected a different response due to increased oxidation of soil carbon, with CH 4 emissions decreasing substantially from an annual cumulative peak of 224.6 to a minimum of 104.7 gC m –2 year –1 . In that same simulation, net cumulative flux of CO 2 changed from being a sink of 56.5 gC m –2 year –1 to a source of 369.6 gCm –2 year –1 over the same period, despite a temperature increase from 13.7 °C to 14.2 °C. This temperature shift in our other three cases with greater water depths increased the source strength of CH 4 and the sink strength of CO 2 . Here, we conclude that the magnitude of wetland greenhouse-gas fluxes depended on the water depth primarily as it affected the areal percentage of the wetland available for plant colonization, but dramatic decreases in water depths could cause significant reductions in the wetland CH 4 fluxes, while simultaneously altering the wetland vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Detecting Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Change From Nonlinear Baseflow Recession

We report permafrost underlies about one fifth of the global land area and affects ground stability, freshwater runoff, soil chemistry, and surface-atmosphere gas exchange. The depth of thawed ground overlying permafrost (active layer thickness) has broadly increased across the Arctic in recent decades, coincident with a period of increased streamflow, especially the lowest flows (baseflow). Mechanistic links between active layer thickness and baseflow have recently been explored using linear reservoir theory, but most watersheds behave as nonlinear reservoirs. We derive theoretical nonlinear relationships between long-term average saturated soil thickness $\bar{η}$(proxy for active layer thickness) and long-term average baseflow. When applied to 38 years of daily streamflow data for the Kuparuk River basin on the North Slope of Alaska, the theory predicts $\bar{η}$ increased 0.17 ± 0.22[2σ] cm a -1 between 1983 and 2020 (6.4 ± cm total). The rate of increase nearly doubled to 0.29 ± 0.31 cm a -1 between 1990 and 2020, during which time local field measurements from Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites indicate the active layer increased 0.31 ± 0.22 cm a -1 . The predicted rate of increase more than doubled again between 2002 and 2020, outpacing a near doubling of observed active layer thickening, consistent with trends in terrestrial water storage inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite gravimetry and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications climate reanalysis. Overall, hydrologic change is accelerating in the Kuparuk River basin, and we provide a theoretical framework for estimating basin-scale changes in active layer water storage from streamflow measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗