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At least 685 records · Page 38

Steam caps in geothermal reservoirs can be monitored using seismic noise interferometry

Harvesting geothermal energy often leads to a pressure drop in reservoirs, decreasing their profitability and promoting the formation of steam caps. While steam caps are valuable energy resources, they also alter the reservoir thermodynamics. Accurately measuring the steam fraction in reservoirs is essential for both operational and economic perspectives. However, steam content estimations are very limited both in space and time since current methods rely on direct measurements within production wells. Besides, these estimations normally present large uncertainties. Here, we present a pioneering method for indirectly sampling the steam content in the subsurface using the ever-present seismic background noise. We observe a consistent annual velocity drop in the Hengill geothermal field (Iceland) and establish a correlation between the velocity drop and steam buildup using in-situ borehole data. This application opens new avenues to track the evolution of any gas reservoir in the crust with a surface-based and cost-effective method.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Utah FORGE: Southwestern Utah Magnetotelluric (MT) Data

This comprehensive magnetotellurics (MT) dataset, which covers southwestern Utah, integrates 600 sites from various surveys, including those from the Utah FORGE, SubTER, and Play Fairway projects, all of which are linked below. The core of this dataset is the use of a 3D finite element (FE) algorithm for inversion imaging, allowing for detailed analysis of the MT data. Provided here are all .edi files, the 3D finite element mesh (with a readme file), graphic slices, node graphics, resistivity graphics, and reports on the acquisition areas and inversion.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Finding, Organizing, and Preserving Legacy Nuclear Test Monitoring Data—Examples from the Livermore Nevada Network

A challenge for geophysical research is the relatively short time for which continuous digital data have been available. There are many events of research interest where much of the data were collected by analog or temporary digital means. These legacy data require special efforts to find, organize, and preserve for future research. Here, we focus on one type of legacy data, nuclear explosions, and associated events (e.g., collapses, aftershocks) of high interest for nuclear monitoring research and development. For nuclear tests conducted in Nevada, the Lawrence Livermore Nevada Network recorded valuable data on a variety of formats. In this article, we briefly review this network, and describe one set of data that previously was available via CD-ROM by request, and since 2018 has become available through Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology as assembled dataset 18-001.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Narrow-Band Least-Squares Infrasound Array Processing

Infrasound data from arrays can be used to detect, locate, and quantify a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources from local to remote distances. However, many array processing methods use a single broad frequency range to process the data, which can lead to signals of interest being missed due to the choice of frequency limits or simultaneous clutter sources. In this work, we introduce a new open-source Python code that processes infrasound array data in multiple sequential narrow frequency bands using the least-squares approach. We test our algorithm on a few examples of natural sources (volcanic eruptions, mass movements, and bolides) for a variety of array configurations. Our method reduces the need to choose frequency limits for processing, which may result in missed signals, and it is parallelized to decrease the computational burden. Improvements of our narrow-band least-squares algorithm over broad-band least-squares processing include the ability to distinguish between multiple simultaneous sources if distinct in their frequency content (e.g., microbarom or surf vs. volcanic eruption), the ability to track changes in frequency content of a signal through time, and a decreased need to fine-tune frequency limits for processing. We incorporate a measure of planarity of the wavefield across the array (sigma tau, στ) as well as the ability to utilize the robust least trimmed squares algorithm to improve signal processing and insight into array performance. Our implementation allows for more detailed characterization of infrasound signals recorded at arrays that can improve monitoring and enhance research capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Alaska North Slope 2018 Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well: Technical Results

The Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well was drilled in December 2018 to confirm that a seismically-identified location within the western Prudhoe Bay Unit might be suitable for extended-duration scientific production testing. The well featured the acquisition of a full suite of logging-while-drilling data, collection of side-wall pressure cores, and installation of distributed temperature and distributed acoustic sensor (DTS, DAS) fiber-optic cables. Evaluation of the logging-while-drilling data confirms gas hydrate is present at high saturation in two target sands of high reservoir quality. Acquired logs and samples enable critical petrophysical information to be compiled for input into production models. The well tested two primary targets: the deeper Unit B is highly favorable due to optimal reservoir temperature and minimal observed risk for direct communication with permeable, hydrate-free water-bearing zones. The shallower Unit D provides a secondary target and opportunity to

Boswell, Ray↗

Seismic imaging of the Ecuadorian forearc and arc from joint ambient noise, local, and teleseismic tomography: catching the Nazca slab in the act of flattening

SUMMARY The Ecuadorian Andes are a complex region characterized by accreted oceanic terranes driven by the ongoing subduction of the oceanic Nazca plate beneath South America. Present-day tectonics in Ecuador are linked to the downgoing plate geometry featuring the subduction of the aseismic, oceanic Carnegie Ridge, which is currently entering the trench. Using seismic tomography, we jointly invert arrival times of P and S waves from local and teleseismic earthquakes with surface wave dispersion curves to image the structure of the forearc and magmatic arc of the Ecuadorian Andes. Our data set includes > 100 000 traveltimes recorded at 294 stations across Ecuador. Our images show the basement of the central forearc is composed of accreted oceanic terranes with high elastic wave speeds. Inboard of the Carnegie Ridge, the westernmost forearc and coastal cordilleras display relatively low Vp and Vs and high Vp/Vs values, which we attribute to the increased hydration and fracturing of the overriding plate due to the subduction of the thick oceanic crust of the Carnegie Ridge. We additionally image across-arc differences in magmatic architecture. The frontal volcanic arc overlies accreted terranes and is characterized by low velocities and high Vp/Vs indicative of partial melt reservoirs which are limited to the upper crust. In contrast, the main arc displays regions of partial melt across a wider range of depths. The Subandean zone of Ecuador has two active volcanoes built on continental crust suggesting the arc is expanding eastwards. The mid to lower crust does not show indications of being modified from the magmatic process. We infer that the slab is in the process of flattening as a consequence of early-stage subduction of the buoyant Carnegie Ridge.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring Uncertainty in Moment Estimation for Small Earthquakes in Southern Nevada Using the Coda Envelope Method

Compiling source parameter estimates for small earthquakes is important both for our understanding of earthquake physics and for accurately assessing earthquake hazard. Reliable source parameter estimates are difficult to achieve for small earthquakes, in part due to our inability to accurately model the relevant physical processes at high frequencies. The coda envelope methodology developed by Mayeda and Walter (1996) and Mayeda et al. (2003) can mitigate this concern and estimate the moment of small earthquakes by determining the parameters that control the shape of the S-wave coda envelope while eliminating path effects by minimizing the scatter between seismic stations. Here, we use an open-source implementation of this technique called the Coda Calibration Tool (CCT; Barno, 2017) to calculate CCT-based moment magnitude estimates of small earthquakes (M L 0–3) in the Rock Valley, Nevada, region within the Nevada National Security Site. The Rock Valley data set is of particular interest because it allows us to explore the changes in uncertainties of the coda calibration method with earthquake size and depth. We found that a consistent linear relationship exists between the local magnitude M L and our coda-derived M w estimates for earthquakes as small as M L 0–3, but that current CCT workflows do not accurately characterize very shallow events. We also demonstrate that the epistemic uncertainty in the apparent stress value assumed by the CCT algorithm can influence magnitude estimates of small earthquakes. In conclusion, these results provide valuable insight into the seismicity of this region, and inform future analysis and modeling efforts for nuclear monitoring and seismic hazard.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The influence of δ-(Al,Fe)OOH on seismic heterogeneities in Earth’s lower mantle

The high-pressure phases of oxyhydroxides (δ-AlOOH, ε-FeOOH, and their solid solution), candidate components of subducted slabs, have wide stability fields, thus potentially influencing volatile circulation and dynamics in the Earth’s lower mantle. Here, we report the elastic wave velocities of δ-(Al,Fe)OOH (Fe/(Al + Fe) = 0.13, δ-Fe13) to 79 GPa, determined by nuclear resonant inelastic X-ray scattering. At pressures below 20 GPa, a softening of the phonon spectra is observed. With increasing pressure up to the Fe 3+ spin crossover (~ 45 GPa), the Debye sound velocity (vD) increases. At higher pressures, the low spin δ-Fe 13 is characterized by a pressure-invariant vD. Using the equation of state for the same sample, the shear-, compressional-, and bulk-velocities (v S , v P , and v Φ ) are calculated and extrapolated to deep mantle conditions. The obtained velocity data show that δ-(Al,Fe)OOH may cause low-v Φ and low-v P anomalies in the shallow lower mantle. At deeper depths, we find that this hydrous phase reproduces the anti-correlation between v S and v Φ reported for the large low seismic velocity provinces, thus serving as a potential seismic signature of hydrous circulation in the lower mantle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Prediction of gas hydrate saturation using machine learning and optimal set of well-logs

We report resistivity and acoustic logs are widely used to estimate gas hydrate saturation in various sedimentary systems using one of the two popular methods ((1) acoustic velocity and (2) electrical resistivity), but the limitations of these two methods are often overlooked, which include (i) well-specific calibration of empirical exponents in the electrical resistivity method, (ii) assumption of known pore morphology for gas hydrates in the acoustic velocity method, and (iii) presence of unknown mineralogy and bulk modulus terms in the acoustic velocity method. NMR-density porosity-derived gas hydrate saturation based on the analysis of the transverse magnetization relaxation time (T2) is considered the most precise method, but acquisition of NMR-based logs is limited at relatively recent drilled sites; additionally, its use in conventional oil and gas reservoirs is not that common due to higher cost and operational deployment limitations associated with acquiring NMR well-logs. This study proposes a new method that predicts gas hydrate saturation (S h ) for any well using porosity, bulk density, and compressional wave (P wave) velocity well-logs with neural network (or stochastic gradient descent regression) without any well-specific calibration and/or other aforementioned shortcomings of the existing methods. The method is developed by examining the underlying dependency between S h and different combinations of well-logs, chosen from 6 routine logs, with 12 different machine learning (ML) algorithms. The accuracy of the proposed method in predicting S h is ~ 84%, which is better than the accuracy of seismic and electrical resistivity methods (≤ 75%) per the results reported by three different studies. The robustness of the method in the specific case of permafrost-associated gas hydrates is demonstrated with well-log data from two wells drilled on the Alaska North Slope.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea

Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn- and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO 2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn-eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Extensive Secondary Cratering From the InSight Sol 1034a Impact Event

Abstract Impact cratering is one of the fundamental processes throughout the history of the Solar System. The formation of new impact craters on planetary bodies has been observed with repeat images from orbiting satellites. However, the time gap between images is often large enough to preclude detailed analysis of smaller‐scale features such as secondary impact craters, which are often removed or buried over a short time period. Here we use a seismic event detected on Mars by the NASA InSight mission to investigate secondary cratering at a new impact crater. We strengthen the case that the seismic event that occurred on Sol 1034 (S1034a) is the result of a new impact cratering event. Using the exact timing of this event from InSight, we investigated the resulting new impact crater in orbital image data. The S1034a impact crater is approximately 9 m in diameter but is responsible for over 900 secondary impact events in the form of low albedo spots that are located at distances of up to almost 7 km from the primary crater. We suggest that the low albedo spots formed from relatively low energy ejecta, with individual ejecta block velocities less than 200 m s −1 . We estimate that the low albedo spots, the main evidence of secondary impact processes at this new impact event, fade within 200–300 days after formation.

Grindrod, P. M. [Natural History Museum London UK]↗

A VOI Web Application for Distinct Geothermal Domains: Statistical Evaluation of Different Data Types within the Great Basin

The Great Basin region contains different domains that have different structural and hydrothermal flow patterns. Depending on the characteristics of these patterns, certain data types may be more successful at detecting hidden geothermal resources. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate if certain data types are more successful in certain domains. Given different aquifer, strain and structural conditions, we explore which data types statistically reveal positively labeled geothermal sites. We utilize value of information (VOI) metrics to help quantify the reliability of data types to discriminate against "positive" and "negative" labeled geothermal sites. We also evaluate how kernel density estimation can help generalize the statistics that inform VOI, which is necessary given the limited data in geothermal exploration. Except for the Carbonate Aquifer, the highest ranking of the Vimperfect is the Local Structural Setting. Next, the slip and dilation tendency is first for Carbonate Aquifer and second for Central Nevada Seismic Belt and Western Great Basin. For the Carbonate Aquifer, heat flow is has the lowest Vimperfect value compared to the other three domains, which is consistent with the understanding of how heat flow measurements are masked by regional groundwater flow.

Bayesian analysis↗

DEEPEN 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. Part of the DEEPEN project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology is based on the method proposed by Poux et al. (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., 2022. For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. More information on this process is described in the following sections. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty. There are two different versions of the Leapfrog model and associated favorability models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.1: The second release, with improvements made to the earthquake catalog (included additional identified events, removed duplicate events), to the temperature model (fixed a deep BHT), and to the index models (updated the seismicity-heat source index models for supercritical and EGS, and the resistivity-insulation index models for all three play types). Also uses the jet color map rather than the magma color map for improved interpretability. - v2.1.1: Updated to include v2.0 uncertainty results (see below for uncertainty model versions) There are two different versions of the associated uncertainty models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.0: The se...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Event Classifications on DNE2 Main Experiment Data using a Convolutional Neural Network Ensemble

The Dynamic Networks (DN) Experiment for FY24 (DNE2) is an experiment within DN with the goal of quantitatively evaluating the effectiveness of solutions developed so far by various researchers under the Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) program using a shared set of metrics and datasets. A key component of this experiment is the mimicking of a signature processing pipeline, and comparing currently accepted and standard-use processing methods to more state-of-the-art processes developed under DN. In this work, we focus specifically on the Event Characterization (EC) Focus Area (FA) of the pipeline, where a seismic event’s magnitude, yield and class are identified. We use Deep Learning (DL) to classify the type of events being processed as either earthquakes (EQs) or explosions (EXs) for three iterations of experiment datasets. The model is noticeably more confident and accurate in classifying explosions than earthquakes, reflecting a known shortcoming of the model, that being of a bias towards predicting explosions over earthquakes in the west coast due to training data biases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Iraq Based on the Updated Earthquake Catalog (1900-2021) and Ground Motion Characteristics

Onur et al. (2017) compiled the first comprehensive earthquake catalog for Iraq, covering 1900 to 2009 within 26°–40°N latitude and 36°–51°E longitude. This catalog was utilized in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) by Abdulnaby et al. (2020) to aid in updating Iraq’s building code seismic provisions. Recently, we have updated the earthquake catalog for Iraq by adding earthquakes recorded from 2010 to 2021 and directly calculating moment magnitude (Mw) for about 2,800 earthquakes using the coda envelope methodology and waveform data from the Mesopotamian Seismological Network (MPSN) in Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geophysical Observations of the 2023 September 24 OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Sample return capsules (SRCs) entering Earth's atmosphere at hypervelocity from interplanetary space are a valuable resource for studying meteor phenomena. The 2023 September 24 arrival of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer SRC provided an unprecedented chance for geophysical observations of a well-characterized source with known parameters, including timing and trajectory. A collaborative effort involving researchers from 16 institutions executed a carefully planned geophysical observational campaign at strategically chosen locations, deploying over 400 ground-based sensors encompassing infrasound, seismic, distributed acoustic sensing, and Global Positioning System technologies. Additionally, balloons equipped with infrasound sensors were launched to capture signals at higher altitudes. This campaign (the largest of its kind so far) yielded a wealth of invaluable data anticipated to fuel scientific inquiry for years to come. The success of the observational campaign is evidenced by the near-universal detection of signals across instruments, both proximal and distal. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the collective scientific effort, field deployment, and preliminary findings. The early findings have the potential to inform future space missions and terrestrial campaigns, contributing to our understanding of meteoroid interactions with planetary atmospheres. Furthermore, the data set collected during this campaign will improve entry and propagation models and augment the study of atmospheric dynamics and shock phenomena generated by meteoroids and similar sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗