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Natural Resources Assessment for the SNS Second Target Station, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

The US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is a leading institution in advanced materials, supercomputing, neutrons, and nuclear science. As a research laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for DOE, ORNL has national priorities in energy, security, and scientific discovery that necessitate facility improvements and expansions. DOE is also committed to environmental stewardship. The laboratory is located on the ~32,000-acre Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), much of which is categorized as a National Environmental Research Park and a state Wildlife Management Area. DOE works with the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA), Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC), US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), US Department of Agriculture, and other agencies to serve as an effective steward of the ORR. Accordingly, project managers must conform to environmental regulations, agreements, and policies at the federal, state, and institutional levels. Per 40 CFR (Code of Federal Regulations) 1508.14, potential effects on research and science education on the National Environmental Research Park represent potential impacts of federal actions. Moreover, federal actions that affect the quantity and quality of hunting opportunities and deer reduction harvest on the Oak Ridge Wildlife Management Area must be considered whenever other aspects of the human environment (as defined by NEPA) are affected. The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is a premiere facility at ORNL that provides advanced capabilities in neutron scattering to promote new discoveries and research opportunities in material sciences, physics, chemistry, biological sciences, and others. A conceptual design for a Second Target Station (STS) has been in consideration for several years. The STS is intended to complement and enhance existing ORNL capabilities, notably research and exploration of complex materials. The proposed STS will involve development of existing natural areas on the ORR, which might contain sensitive resources that require mitigation or avoidance in accordance with existing policies and regulation. This report summarizes current knowledge of natural and cultural resources within the STS project area. At the time of this report, the proposed STS project consisted of an operations area comprising 55.4 acres (22.4 ha) and a total review area for potential construction comprising ~224 acres (90.6 ha). The review area is located primarily within forested natural areas of the ORR with minor development in the form of power-line rights-of-way and secondary/graveled roads (Figure 1). The primary goal was to evaluate potential effects on sensitive resources that might result from development of the STS. In addition to onthe-ground surveys during summer 2009 and fall 2019 to summer 2020 by ORNL Natural Resources Management Program and Aquatic Ecology Group staff, this report makes use of historical (pre-1995) and contemporary (1995 to present) data from additional confirmed sources (e.g., TDEC). Likewise, forest conditions were compiled primarily from a 2013 forest inventory effort for Forest Management Compartment 17 and supplemented with limited ground observations in 2019. The individuals who obtained and compiled the data that are presented here are familiar with and routinely assess sensitive resources on the ORR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative life cycle assessment of remote potable water supply for the Department of Defense

The Department of Defense (DOD) and other agencies, including relief organizations, require potable water for remote missions around the globe. As part of recent initiative by the U.S. Federal government through Executive Order 14057, the DOD has been instructed to investigate the sustainability of operations and practices within the context of climate change. One such practice that needs to be addressed is the procurement of potable water, an essential requirement of any remote mission or location. Currently, there are three primary means of procuring potable water at remote locations: bottled water, on-site purification, or tie-in to existing, local infrastructure. The first two operations are often considered the most secure options, but have sustainability concerns. The purpose of this study is to compare the environmental impacts of bottled water procurement versus on-site treatment via a mobile Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Unit (ROWPU), which uses multiple levels of filtration to make potable water from a local source. A cradle-to-gate assessment was developed for both systems to compare different options for potable water supply. An in person inventory was paired with data taken from the Ecoinvent 3.8 database to directly compare the two systems. The two systems are compared on a 5-year timeline to analyze the environmental impact of repeated bottled water transport versus diesel generator-fueled on-site treatment. Across all impact categories, the results indicate that high energy costs of the reverse osmosis process have significantly less impact on the environment than the repetitive transport and procurement of bottled water. The results of the study have important implications for advancing sustainable operations for remote communities or temporary settlements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prefabricated Zero Energy Retrofit Technologies: A Market Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) mission is to “create and sustain American leadership in the transition to a global clean energy economy.” EERE’s vision is a strong and prosperous America powered by clean, affordable, and secure energy. In support of this vision, one of EERE’s strategic pillars is to stimulate the growth of a thriving domestic clean energy manufacturing industry. This report seeks to identify products in the European and U.S. markets that can enable a more integrated and standardized approach to conducting zero energy retrofits, leveraging off-site construction and manufacturing. Greater integration of energy conservation measures into prefabricated building components will further enable efficiency adoption, while reducing project complexity, risks, and costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems

Floods are the costliest natural disaster (United Nations 2004), causing approximately6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone (Doocy et al. 2013).Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD(Munich Re 2013). Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries (Davies et al. 2014).Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change (IPCC 2007). Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assessflooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure.

flood↗

Distribution of Natural Radionuclides at the Nevada National Security Site

According to the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) publications, contributions of terrestrial gamma doses are mainly from the presence of 40 K, and of 238 U and 232 Th together with their progeny in various rocks and soils. A survey of soil distributions of radionuclides 40 K, 238 U, and 232 Th was performed at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) using in situ gamma-ray spectrometry with a high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector. The average activity concentrations of 40 K, 238 U, and 232 Th in natural soils at the NNSS are 867 Bq kg -1 (range from 150 ± 8 to 1297 ± 56 Bq kg -1 ), 50 Bq kg -1 (range from 29 ± 3 to 74 ± 8 Bq kg -1 ), and 56 Bq kg -1 (range from 11 ± 2 to 96 ± 10 Bq kg -1 ), respectively. The concentration at each location is significantly associated with its geological lithology. The terrestrial gamma dose rates around the NNSS were estimated from 26 to 144 nSv h -1 with mean value of 93 nSv h -1 . In conclusion, our results provide useful information about the natural background radiation and radiological effects of naturally occurring radionuclides at the NNSS.

environmental assessment↗

Radionuclide Screening Analysis and Transport Parameters for Pahute Mesa Detonations, Nevada National Security Site

A “screening analysis” is implemented at Pahute Mesa (PM), Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), to determine subsets of the 43 radionuclides listed in the radionuclide inventory of Finnegan et al. (2016) that are of relevance or potential relevance to the hydrologic source term (HST) for assessment of radionuclide transport in groundwater. Consideration is added to how levels of contamination are defined and whether any other radionuclides not in the inventory are relevant to the HST. A model is developed to estimate a range of possible source concentrations in groundwater that account for uncertainty in partitioning into melt glass and sorption into surrounding rock of the exchange zone for the 82 PM underground nuclear tests detonated in vertical shafts. The model also accounts for the varied hydrogeochemical settings. Transport parameters needed for the screening model calculations are developed from databases for hydrogeologic units, chemistry, mineralogy, fracture spacing, fracture aperture, fracture openness, matrix porosity, bulk density, saturation, and alteration. Of key importance is consideration of diagenetic zonation of the mineralogy related to hydrothermal alteration. The screening analysis compares model results with available groundwater radiochemistry data. Consistency between screening model results and available data helps validate the model for application to all 43 radionuclides, most of which have no measurements or only non-detect measurements of concentration in groundwater. The screening analysis determines that ten radionuclides – tritium, Sr-90, I-129, Cs-137, U-232, U-233, U-234, U-238, and the total of Pu-239 and Pu-240 are relevant to the HST. Determination of relevance is primarily based on data and/or model results indicating source concentration exceeding a maximum contaminant level (MCL) out to 100 years since the time of detonation. U-238 is relevant to assessment of contamination relative to MCLs for uranium and gross alpha particle activity. Five other radionuclides – C-14, Cl-36, Tc-99, Np-237, and Pu-238 – are determined potentially relevant to the HST based on a 0.1 MCL threshold. The screening analysis recommends additional attention to the natural daughter radionuclides of the uranium series (U-238) and thorium series (Th-232) decay chains, particularly Ra-226 and Ra-228, that were not included the inventory.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Machine learning for reactor power monitoring with limited labeled data

Real-time reactor power monitoring is critical for a variety of nuclear applications, spanning safety, security, operations, and maintenance. While machine learning methods have shown promise in monitoring reactor power levels, there is limited research on their efficacy in label-starved environments. The goal of this work is to assess the feasibility of classifying nuclear reactor power level using multisource data in scenarios with limited labels. Data were collected using low-resolution multisensors at four nuclear reactor facilities: two large research reactors and two TRIGA reactors. Within each pair, one reactor dataset served as the source and the other as the target in a transfer learning paradigm. Twenty-three supervised models were trained on labeled sequences of magnetic field and acceleration data from each of the target sites. Self-learning and transfer learning methods were applied to the top performing models to assess their classification performance with increasing amounts of labeled data. While reactor power level classification was achieved with a Matthews Correlation Coefficient of up to 0.739 ± 0.003 and 0.622 ± 0.009 with only 400 sequences per power state for the large research reactor and TRIGA target sites, respectively, self-learning and transfer learning leveraging source site data did not improve target classification performance. These findings suggest that alternative methods, such as higher sensitivity sensors, digital twins, or the use of physics-informed models, are required to enable high-performance classification in machine learning approaches to reactor monitoring with a dearth of target ground truth.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy

Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries’ potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation’s producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Lithium Production in North America: A Review

This report provides a detailed literature review and preliminary life cycle inventory for producing lithium (Li) chemicals—lithium carbonate (Li 2 CO 3 ) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH)—from sedimentary clays in the North America, as was incorporated into the GREET® 2023 model release. It also updates the status and life cycle inventory of Li chemical production from low Li content brines via direct lithium extraction (DLE) from our previous work in GREET 2022. All life cycle inventory updates are based on preliminary economic assessment studies conducted by various commercial entities engaged in this industry. If produced successfully, Li chemicals from North American reserves can be significant in meeting the United States’ strategic goal of ensuring a robust and secure supply of a strategic mineral that is critical to its decarbonization initiatives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Secure and Resilient Operations Using Open-Source Distributed Systems Platform (OpenDSP)

The goal of this project is to identify and address cybersecurity gaps by developing a multi-layer multi-channel cyber-physical defense and survival mechanism for operating distribution networks with high penetration of solar / inverter-based resource (IBR) / distributed energy resource (DER). The proposed security enhancements are built upon the distributed framework and solution architecture for both information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) systems. The technical solutions consist of two composite functionalities and six layers: proactive defense (vulnerability assessment, communication protection, and attack detection, as layers 1-3), and adaptive self-healing (attack-resilient control, adaptive recovery, and resilient survival, as layers 4-6). These layers, built on and extended from DHS CISA Cyber Framework, establish an integrated and robust cybersecurity framework for operating large-scale distribution networks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗