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Parallel runway requirement analysis study. Volume 2: Simulation manual

This document is a user manual for operating the PLAND_BLUNDER (PLB) simulation program. This simulation is based on two aircraft approaching parallel runways independently and using parallel Instrument Landing System (ILS) equipment during Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). If an aircraft should deviate from its assigned localizer course toward the opposite runway, this constitutes a blunder which could endanger the aircraft on the adjacent path. The worst case scenario would be if the blundering aircraft were unable to recover and continue toward the adjacent runway. PLAND_BLUNDER is a Monte Carlo-type simulation which employs the events and aircraft positioning during such a blunder situation. The model simulates two aircraft performing parallel ILS approaches using Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) or visual procedures. PLB uses a simple movement model and control law in three dimensions (X, Y, Z). The parameters of the simulation inputs and outputs are defined in this document along with a sample of the statistical analysis. This document is the second volume of a two volume set. Volume 1 is a description of the application of the PLB to the analysis of close parallel runway operations.

Ebrahimi, Yaghoob S.↗

Uncertainty relations as Hilbert space geometry

Precision measurements involve the accurate determination of parameters through repeated measurements of identically prepared experimental setups. For many parameters there is a 'natural' choice for the quantum observable which is expected to give optimal information; and from this observable one can construct an Heinsenberg uncertainty principle (HUP) bound on the precision attainable for the parameter. However, the classical statistics of multiple sampling directly gives us tools to construct bounds for the precision available for the parameters of interest (even when no obvious natural quantum observable exists, such as for phase, or time); it is found that these direct bounds are more restrictive than those of the HUP. The implication is that the natural quantum observables typically do not encode the optimal information (even for observables such as position, and momentum); we show how this can be understood simply in terms of the Hilbert space geometry. Another striking feature of these bounds to parameter uncertainty is that for a large enough number of repetitions of the measurements all V quantum states are 'minimum uncertainty' states - not just Gaussian wave-packets. Thus, these bounds tell us what precision is achievable as well as merely what is allowed.

Braunstein, Samuel L.↗

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes to Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud-Resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution on the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes, and with surface processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, South China Sea, eastern Atlantic, South America and central U.S. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolution will be examined. This will be mainly achieved by performing sensitivity tests using various horizontal (from 1- to 5-kilometers) and vertical resolutions (from 20- to 200-meters in the lower troposphere to 200- to 500-m in the middle and upper troposphere). Sensitivity tests using various microphysical schemes (warm rain only, and three ice with either graupel or hail) will also be performed. The PBL and diurnal variation of precipitation processes will also be evaluated. The budgets will be calculated for different regions (i.e., convective and stratiform regions).

Tao, Wei-Kao↗

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes to Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud-resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution on the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, South China Sea, eastern Atlantic, South America and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have a good sampling of cloud statistics.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes to Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud-Resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution on the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes, and with surface processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, eastern Atlantic and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolution will be examined.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes to Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud Resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model examines the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution in the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing rations of all water phases (vapor, liquid and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes and with surface processes. For idealized hurricanes, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was use to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, South China Sea, eastern Atlantic, South America and central U.S. FOr the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have a good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolutio will be examined. This will be mainly achieved by performing sensitivity tests using various horizontal (from 1-to 5-km) and vertical resolutions (from 20- to 200-m in the lower troposphere to 200- to 500m in the middle and upper troposphere). Sensitivity test using various microphysical schemes (warm rain only, and three ice with either graupel or hail) will also be performed. The thermodynamic and water budget associated with various types of precipitation systems will also be evaluated. The budgets will be calculated for different regions (i.e., convective and stratiform regions).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes of Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud-Resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution ion the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble f clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperatures, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes, and with surface processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulated squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, eastern Atlantic and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolution will be examined. This will be mainly achieved by performing sensitivity tests using various horizontal (from 1- to 5-km) and vertical resolutions (from 20- to 200-m in the lower troposphere to 200- to 500-m in the middle and upper troposphere). Sensitivity tests using various microphysical schemes (warm rain only, and three ice with either graupel or hail) will also be performed. The thermodynamic and water budget associated with various types of precipitation systems will also be evaluated. The budgets will be calculated for different regions (i.e., convective and stratiform regions).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Lunar Samples: Apollo Collection Tools, Curation Handling, Surveyor III and Soviet Luna Samples

The 6 Apollo missions that landed on the lunar surface returned 2196 samples comprised of 382 kg. The 58 samples weighing 21.5 kg collected on Apollo 11 expanded to 741 samples weighing 110.5 kg by the time of Apollo 17. The main goal on Apollo 11 was to obtain some material and return it safely to Earth. As we gained experience, the sampling tools and a more specific sampling strategy evolved. A summary of the sample types returned is shown in Table 1. By year 1989, some statistics on allocation by sample type were compiled [2]. The "scientific interest index" is based on the assumption that the more allocations per gram of sample, the higher the scientific interest. It is basically a reflection of the amount of diversity within a given sample type. Samples were also set aside for biohazard testing. The samples set aside and used for biohazard testing were represen-tative, as opposed to diverse. They tended to be larger and be comprised of less scientifically valuable mate-rial, such as dust and debris in the bottom of sample containers.

Allton, J.H.↗

Prospects for AGN Science using the ART-XC on the SRG Mission

The enhanced hard X-ray sensitivity provided by the Astronomical Roentgen Telescope to the Spectrum Roentgen Gamma mission facilitates the detection of heavily obscured and other hard-spectrum cosmic X-ray sources. The SRG all-sky survey will obtain large, statistically-well-defined samples of active galactic nuclei (AGN) including a significant population of local heavily-obscured AGN. In anticipation of the SRG all-sky survey, we investigate the prospects for refining the bright end of the AGN luminosity function and determination of the local black hole mass function and comparing the spatial distribution of AGN with large-scale structure defined by galaxy clusters and groups. Particular emphasis is placed on studies of the deep survey Ecliptic Pole regions.

Swartz, Douglas A.↗

Balanced mechanical resonator for powder handling device

A system incorporating a balanced mechanical resonator and a method for vibration of a sample composed of granular material to generate motion of a powder sample inside the sample holder for obtaining improved analysis statistics, without imparting vibration to the sample holder support.

Sarrazin, Philippe C.↗

Weak Hard X-Ray Emission from Two Broad Absorption Line Quasars Observed with NuStar: Compton-Thick Absorption or Intrinsic X-Ray Weakness?

We present Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) hard X-ray observations of two X-ray weak broad absorption line (BAL) quasars, PG 1004+130 (radio loud) and PG 1700+518 (radio quiet). Many BAL quasars appear X-ray weak, probably due to absorption by the shielding gas between the nucleus and the accretion-disk wind. The two targets are among the optically brightest BAL quasars, yet they are known to be significantly X-ray weak at rest-frame 2-10 keV (16-120 times fainter than typical quasars). We would expect to obtain approx. or equal to 400-600 hard X-ray (is greater than or equal to 10 keV) photons with NuSTAR, provided that these photons are not significantly absorbed N(sub H) is less than or equal to 10(exp24) cm(exp-2). However, both BAL quasars are only detected in the softer NuSTAR bands (e.g., 4-20 keV) but not in its harder bands (e.g., 20-30 keV), suggesting that either the shielding gas is highly Compton-thick or the two targets are intrinsically X-ray weak. We constrain the column densities for both to be N(sub H) 7 × 10(exp 24) cm(exp-2) if the weak hard X-ray emission is caused by obscuration from the shielding gas. We discuss a few possibilities for how PG 1004+130 could have Compton-thick shielding gas without strong Fe Kα line emission; dilution from jet-linked X-ray emission is one likely explanation. We also discuss the intrinsic X-ray weakness scenario based on a coronal-quenching model relevant to the shielding gas and disk wind of BAL quasars. Motivated by our NuSTAR results, we perform a Chandra stacking analysis with the Large Bright Quasar Survey BAL quasar sample and place statistical constraints upon the fraction of intrinsically X-ray weak BAL quasars; this fraction is likely 17%-40%.

nuclei↗

The Moving Group Targets of the Seeds High-Contrast Imaging Survey of Exoplanets and Disks: Results and Observations from the First Three Years

We present results from the first three years of observations of moving group (MG) targets in the Strategic Exploration of Exoplanets and Disks with Subaru (SEEDS) high-contrast imaging survey of exoplanets and disks using the Subaru telescope. We achieve typical contrasts of (is) approximately10(exp 5) at 1" and (is) approximately 10(exp 6) beyond 2" around 63 proposed members of nearby kinematic MGs. We review each of the kinematic associations to which our targets belong, concluding that five, beta Pictoris ((is) approximately 20 Myr), AB Doradus ((is) approximately 100 Myr), Columba ((is) approximately 30 Myr), Tucana-Horogium ((is) approximately 30 Myr), and TW Hydrae ((is) approximately 10 Myr), are sufficiently well-defined to constrain the ages of individual targets. Somewhat less than half of our targets are high-probability members of one of these MGs. For all of our targets, we combine proposed MG membership with other age indicators where available, including Ca ii HK emission, X-ray activity, and rotation period, to produce a posterior probability distribution of age. SEEDS observations discovered a substellar companion to one of our targets, kappa And, a late B star. We do not detect any other substellar companions, but do find seven new close binary systems, of which one still needs to be confirmed. A detailed analysis of the statistics of this sample, and of the companion mass constraints given our age probability distributions and exoplanet cooling models, will be presented in a forthcoming paper.

SEEDS high-contrast imaging survey of exoplanets↗

Multiple Transits during a Single Conjunction: Identifying Transiting Circumbinary Planetary Candidates from TESS

We present results of a study on identifying circumbinary planet candidates that produce multiple transits during one conjunction with eclipsing binary systems. The occurrence of these transits enables us to estimate the candidates’ orbital periods, which is crucial as the periods of the currently known transiting circumbinary planets are significantly longer than the typical observational baseline of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). Combined with the derived radii, it also provides valuable information needed for follow-up observations and subsequent confirmation of a large number of circumbinary planet candidates from TESS. Motivated by the discovery of the 1108 day circumbinary planet Kepler-1647, we show the application of this technique to four of Kepler’s circumbinary planets that produce such transits. Our results indicate that in systems where the circumbinary planet is on a low-eccentricity orbit, the estimated planetary orbital period is within <10%–20% of the true value. This estimate is derived from photometric observations spanning less than 5% of the planet’s period, demonstrating the strong capability of the technique. Capitalizing on the current and future eclipsing binaries monitored by NASA’s TESS mission, we estimate that hundreds of circumbinary planet candidates producing multiple transits during one conjunction will be detected in the TESS data. Such a large sample will enable statistical understanding of the population of planets orbiting binary stars and shed new light on their formation and evolution.

Veselin Kostov↗

Half of global methane emissions come from highly variable aquatic ecosystem sources

Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas that plays a major role in controlling the Earth’s climate. The causes of the renewed increase of methane concentration since 2007 are uncertain given the multiple sources and complex biogeochemistry. Here, we present a metadata analysis of methane fluxes from all major natural, impacted and human-made aquatic ecosystems. Our revised bottom-up global aquatic methane emissions combine diffusive, ebullitive and/or plant-mediated fluxes from 15 aquatic ecosystems. We emphasize the high variability of methane fluxes within and between aquatic ecosystems and a positively skewed distribution of empirical data, making global estimates sensitive to statistical assumptions and sampling design. We find aquatic ecosystems contribute (median) 41% or (mean) 53% of total global methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. We show that methane emissions increase from natural to impacted aquatic ecosystems and from coastal to freshwater ecosystems. We argue that aquatic emissions will probably increase due to urbanization, eutrophication and positive climate feedbacks and suggest changes in land-use management as potential mitigation strategies to reduce aquatic methane emissions.

aquatic ecosystem↗

Lidar Inter-Comparison Exercise Final Campaign Report

The objective of this field campaign was to evaluate the performance of the new Leosphere R-MAN 510 lidar, procured by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, by testing it against the MicroPulse Lidar (MPL) and Raman lidars, at the Darwin Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. This lidar is an eye-safe (355 nm), turn-key mini Raman lidar, which allows for the detection of aerosols and cloud properties, and the retrieval of particulate extinction profiles. To accomplish this evaluation, the R-MAN 510 lidar has been operated at the Darwin ARM site, next to the MPL, Raman lidar, and Vaisala ceilometer (VCEIL) for three months (from 20 January 2013 to 20 April 2013) in order to collect a sufficient sample size for statistical comparisons.

Protat, A↗

Uniform Distribution Technique for Neutrino Beam Scan Simulation

In Fermilab's neutrino facilities such as the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) and the upcoming Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF), a proton beam strikes high-power target, producing positively and negatively charged pions and kaons. There is a need for detailed simulations in order to capture all particle interactions and beam propagation from protons on target to short-lived mesons decaying into muons and neutrinos. The generation of individual beam simulations is a resource-intensive and time-consuming process. In this paper, we describe a method through which many simulation samples with high statistics can be generated to study the effects of beam scan across a target for given beam configurations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Synchrotron Microdiffraction Study of Heavy-Ion-Irradiated Uranium-Molybdenum Dispersion Fuel

There has been an ongoing effort by the Department of Energy Office of Material Management and Minimization to convert research and test reactors from high-enriched to low-enriched uranium fuels. Uranium-molybdenum alloy fuel dispersed in an aluminum matrix (UMo-Al dispersion fuel) has emerged as the leading candidate fuel for converting the remaining high-power research reactors in Europe. One of the primary barriers to using this fuel type is the deleterious reaction of UMo with Al. Depending on the operating temperature of the reactor, this interaction layer can be amorphous under irradiation and allows for the accumulation of fission gas products in large bubbles, leading to unacceptable swelling of the fuel. Therefore, detailed characterization of the phases that form within the fuel and in the interaction layer is critical to understanding, and controlling, UMo-Al dispersion fuel behavior under irradiation. Furthermore, the phase stability of the UMo fuel is of great importance, as the alpha-UMo phase has undesirable swelling compared to the metastable gamma-UMo phase. Heavy ion irradiation was used to reproduce the interaction layer that develops in-reactor. Samples of both the fuel and interaction layer formed under ion irradiation were examined using the high-energy x-ray microdiffraction technique at the Advanced Photon Source (APS) at Argonne National Laboratory to examine the microstructure of the interaction layer. The high-resolution phase information obtained in this experiment provides a valuable basis for understanding the evolution of UMo-Al dispersion fuel under irradiation and as input for computational studies to improve predictive capabilities. Phase information for in-pile fuels can currently be determined from TEM samples (limited sample volume, limiting statistics), or by extrapolation from SEMEDS analysis. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Cluster expansion by transfer learning for phase stability predictions

Recent progress towards universal machine-learned interatomic potentials holds considerable promise for materials discovery. Yet the accuracy of these potentials for predicting phase stability may still be limited. In contrast, cluster expansions provide accurate phase stability predictions but are computationally demanding to parameterize from first principles, especially for structures of low dimension or with a large number of components, such as interfaces or multimetal catalysts. We overcome this trade-off via transfer learning. Using Bayesian inference, we incorporate prior statistical knowledge from machine-learned and physics-based potentials, enabling us to sample the most informative configurations and to efficiently fit first-principles cluster expansions. Furthermore, this algorithm is tested on Pt:Ni, showing robust convergence of the mixing energies as a function of sample size with reduced statistical fluctuations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗