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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Compact galaxies and the size–mass galaxy distribution from a colour-selected sample at 0.04 < z < 0.15 supplemented by ugrizYJHK photometric redshifts

ABSTRACT The size–mass galaxy distribution is a key diagnostic for galaxy evolution. Massive compact galaxies are potential surviving relics of a high-redshift phase of star formation. Some of these could be nearly unresolved in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) imaging and thus not included in galaxy samples. To overcome this, a sample was selected from the combination of SDSS and UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS) photometry to r < 17.8. This was done using colour–colour selection, and then by obtaining accurate photometric redshifts (photo-z) using scaled flux matching (SFM). Compared to spectroscopic redshifts (spec-z), SFM obtained a 1σ scatter of 0.0125 with only 0.3 per cent outliers (|Δln (1 + z)| > 0.06). A sample of 163 186 galaxies was obtained with 0.04 < z < 0.15 over $2300\, {\rm deg}^2$ using a combination of spec-z and photo-z. Following Barro et al. log Σ1.5 = log M* − 1.5log r50, maj was used to define compactness. The spectroscopic completeness was 76 per cent for compact galaxies (log Σ1.5 > 10.5) compared to 92 per cent for normal-sized galaxies. This difference is primarily attributed to SDSS ‘fibre collisions’ and not the completeness of the main galaxy sample selection. Using environmental overdensities, this confirms that compact quiescent galaxies are significantly more likely to be found in high-density environments compared to normal-sized galaxies. By comparison with a high-redshift sample from 3D-HST, log Σ1.5 distribution functions show significant evolution, with this being a compelling way to compare with simulations such as EAGLE. The number density of compact quiescent galaxies drops by a factor of about 30 from z ∼ 2 to log (n/Mpc−3) = − 5.3 ± 0.4 in the SDSS–UKIDSS sample. The uncertainty is dominated by the steep cut off in log Σ1.5, which is demonstrated conclusively using this complete sample.

Baldry, Ivan K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: galaxy clustering and systematics treatment for lens galaxy samples

ABSTRACT In this work, we present the galaxy clustering measurements of the two DES lens galaxy samples: a magnitude-limited sample optimized for the measurement of cosmological parameters, maglim, and a sample of luminous red galaxies selected with the redmagic algorithm. maglim/redmagic sample contains over 10 million/2.5 million galaxies and is divided into six/five photometric redshift bins spanning the range z ∈ [0.20, 1.05]/z ∈ [0.15, 0.90]. Both samples cover 4143 $\deg ^2$ over which we perform our analysis blind, measuring the angular correlation function with an S/N ∼ 63 for both samples. In a companion paper, these measurements of galaxy clustering are combined with the correlation functions of cosmic shear and galaxy–galaxy lensing of each sample to place cosmological constraints with a 3 × 2pt analysis. We conduct a thorough study of the mitigation of systematic effects caused by the spatially varying survey properties and we correct the measurements to remove artificial clustering signals. We employ several decontamination methods with different configurations to ensure the robustness of our corrections and to determine the systematic uncertainty that needs to be considered for the final cosmology analyses. We validate our fiducial methodology using lognormal mocks, showing that our decontamination procedure induces biases no greater than 0.5σ in the (Ωm, b) plane, where b is the galaxy bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

B/PS bulges in DESI Legacy edge-on galaxies – I. Sample building

ABSTRACT We present the biggest up-to-date sample of edge-on galaxies with boxy/peanut-shaped (B/PS) bulges and X-structures. The sample was prepared using images from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy catalogue and contains about 2000 galaxies. To find suitable candidates in catalogue, we made the assumption that the residues (original images minus model) of galaxies with B/PS bulges should exhibit a characteristic X-shape. Galaxies with such features were selected by eye and then used as input data for a neural network training, which was applied to a bigger sample of edge-on galaxies. Using the available data and the photometric models from the literature, we investigated the observational and statistical properties of the sample created. Comparing the B/D ratios for galaxies with and without B/PS bulges, we found that the B/D ratio for galaxies from our sample is statistically higher, with typical values in the range ≈0.2–0.5 depending on the decomposition procedure. We studied how the opening angles φ of the X-structure and the length of its rays are distributed in the formed sample and found them to be consistent with previous measurements and predictions from N-body models, e.g. $\varphi \gtrsim 25{^\circ }$, but measured here for a much larger number of galaxies. We found a sharp increase in the B/PS bulge fraction for stellar masses log M⋆ ≳ 10.4, but for edge-on galaxies, which complements the results of previous works. The sample can be used in future work to test various bar models and their relationship with B/PS bulges, as well as to study their stability and evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Amalgame: cosmological constraints from the first combined photometric supernova sample

ABSTRACT Future constraints of cosmological parameters from Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) will depend on the use of photometric samples, those samples without spectroscopic measurements of the SNe Ia. There is a growing number of analyses that show that photometric samples can be utilized for precision cosmological studies with minimal systematic uncertainties. To investigate this claim, we perform the first analysis that combines two separate photometric samples, SDSS and Pan-STARRS, without including a low-redshift anchor. We evaluate the consistency of the cosmological parameters from these two samples and find they are consistent with each other to under 1σ. From the combined sample, named Amalgame, we measure ΩM = 0.328 ± 0.024 with SN alone in a flat ΛCDM model, and ΩM = 0.330 ± 0.018 and w = $-1.016^{+0.055}_{-0.058}$ when combining with a Planck data prior and a flat wCDM model. These results are consistent with constraints from the Pantheon+ analysis of only spectroscopically confirmed SNe Ia, and show that there are no significant impediments to analyses of purely photometric samples of SNe Ia. The data and results are made available at https://github.com/bap37/AmalgameDR.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2018

The clustering of theSDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey DR14 quasar sample: measuring the anisotropic baryon acoustic oscillations with redshift weights

We present an anisotropic analysis of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) signal from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 14 quasar sample. The sample consists of 147 000 quasars distributed over a redshift range of 0.8 < z < 2.2. We apply the redshift weights technique to the clustering of quasars in this sample and achieve a 4.6 per cent measurement of the angular distance measurement DM at z = 2.2 and Hubble parameter H at z = 0.8. We parametrize the distance-redshift relation, relative to a fiducial model, as a Taylor series. The coefficients of this expansion are used to reconstruct the distance-redshift relation and obtain distance and Hubble parameter measurements at all redshifts within the redshift range of the sample. Reporting the result at two characteristic redshifts, we determine DM(z = 1) = 3405 ± 305 (rd/rd, fid) Mpc, H(z=1) = 120.7± 7.3 (r_d,fid / r_d) km s^{-1} Mpc^{-1} and DM(z = 2) = 5325 ± 249 (rd/rd, fid) Mpc, H(z=2) = 189.9± 32.9 (r_d,fid / r_d) km s^{-1} Mpc^{-1}. These measurements are highly correlated. We assess the outlook of BAO analysis from the final quasar sample by testing the method on a set of mocks that mimic the noise level in the final sample. We demonstrate on these mocks that redshift weighting shrinks the measurement error by over 25 per cent on average. We conclude redshift weighting can bring us closer to the cosmological goal of the final quasar sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical analysis on random quantum circuit sampling by Sycamore and Zuchongzhi quantum processors

Random quantum circuit sampling, a task to sample bit strings from a random quantum circuit, is considered a suitable benchmark task to demonstrate the outperformance of quantum computers even with noisy qubits. Recently, random quantum circuit sampling was performed on the Sycamore quantum processor with 53 qubits [Nature (London) 574, 505 (2019)] and on the Zuchongzhi quantum processor with 56 qubits [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 180501 (2021)]. Here, we analyze and compare the statistical properties of the outputs of the random quantum circuit sampling by the Sycamore and Zuchongzhi processors. Using the Marchenko-Pastur law of random matrices of bit strings and the Wasssertein distances between bit strings, we find that the statistical properties of Sycamore bit strings are quite different from those of Zuchongzhi bit strings, while both processors score similar values of linear cross-entropy fidelity for random circuit sampling. Some bit strings sampled by the Zuchongzhi processor pass the NIST random number tests while both Sycamore and Zuchongzhi processors show similar patterns in the heat maps of bit strings. Zuchongzhi bit strings are much closer to classical uniform random bits than those of Sycamore. It is shown that the statistical properties of bit strings of both random quantum circuits change little as the depth of the random quantum circuits increases. Our findings raise a question about the computational reliability of noisy quantum processors because two quantum processors with similar noise levels and similar qubit structures produced statistically different outputs for the same random quantum circuit sampling.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Use of continuous sample translation to reduce radiation damage for XPCS studies of protein diffusion

An experimental setup to measure X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy during continuous sample translation is presented and its effectiveness as a means to avoid sample damage in dynamics studies of protein diffusion is evaluated. X-ray damage from focused coherent synchrotron radiation remains below tolerable levels as long as the sample is translated through the beam sufficiently quickly. Here it is shown that it is possible to separate sample dynamics from the effects associated with the transit of the sample through the beam. By varying the sample translation rate, the damage threshold level, D thresh = 1.8 kGy, for when beam damage begins to modify the dynamics under the conditions used, is also determined. Signal-to-noise ratios, R sn ≥ 20, are obtained down to the shortest delay times of 20 µs. The applicability of this method of data collection to the next generation of multi-bend achromat synchrotron sources is discussed and it is shown that sub-microsecond dynamics should be obtainable on protein samples.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robotic sample changers for macromolecular X-ray crystallography and biological small-angle X-ray scattering at the National Synchrotron Light Source II

In this work, we present two robotic sample changers integrated into the experimental stations for the macromolecular crystallography (MX) beamlines AMX and FMX, and the biological small-angle scattering (bioSAXS) beamline LiX. They enable fully automated unattended data collection and remote access to the beamlines. The system designs incorporate high-throughput, versatility, high-capacity, resource sharing and robustness. All systems are centered around a six-axis industrial robotic arm coupled with a force torque sensor and in-house end effectors (grippers). They have the same software architecture and the facility standard EPICS-based BEAST alarm system. The MX system is compatible with SPINE bases and Unipucks. It comprises a liquid nitrogen dewar holding 384 samples (24 Unipucks) and a stay-cold gripper, and utilizes machine vision software to track the sample during operations and to calculate the final mount position on the goniometer. The bioSAXS system has an in-house engineered sample storage unit that can hold up to 360 samples (20 sample holders) which keeps samples at a user-set temperature (277 K to 300 K). The MX systems were deployed in early 2017 and the bioSAXS system in early 2019.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Laminography as a tool for imaging large-size samples with high resolution

Despite the increased brilliance of the new generation synchrotron sources, there is still a challenge with high-resolution scanning of very thick and absorbing samples, such as a whole mouse brain stained with heavy elements, and, extending further, brains of primates. Samples are typically cut into smaller parts, to ensure a sufficient X-ray transmission, and scanned separately. Compared with the standard tomography setup where the sample would be cut into many pillars, the laminographic geometry operates with slab-shaped sections significantly reducing the number of sample parts to be prepared, the cutting damage and data stitching problems. In this work, a laminography pipeline for imaging large samples (>1 cm) at micrometre resolution is presented. The implementation includes a low-cost instrument setup installed at the 2-BM micro-CT beamline of the Advanced Photon Source. Additionally, sample mounting, scanning techniques, data stitching procedures, a fast reconstruction algorithm with low computational complexity, and accelerated reconstruction on multi-GPU systems for processing large-scale datasets are presented. The applicability of the whole laminography pipeline was demonstrated by imaging four sequential slabs throughout an entire mouse brain sample stained with osmium, in total generating approximately 12 TB of raw data for reconstruction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast HARDI Uncertainty Quantification and Visualization with Spherical Sampling

In this paper, we study uncertainty quantification and visualization of orientation distribution functions (ODF), which corresponds to the diffusion profile of high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data. The shape inclusion probability (SIP) function is the state‐of‐the‐art method for capturing the uncertainty of ODF ensembles. The current method of computing the SIP function with a volumetric basis exhibits high computational and memory costs, which can be a bottleneck to integrating uncertainty into HARDI visualization techniques and tools. We propose a novel spherical sampling framework for faster computation of the SIP function with lower memory usage and increased accuracy. In particular, we propose direct extraction of SIP isosurfaces, which represent confidence intervals indicating spatial uncertainty of HARDI glyphs, by performing spherical sampling of ODFs. Our spherical sampling approach requires much less sampling than the state‐of‐the‐art volume sampling method, thus providing significantly enhanced performance, scalability, and the ability to perform implicit ray tracing. Our experiments demonstrate that the SIP isosurfaces extracted with our spherical sampling approach can achieve up to 8164× speedup, 37282× memory reduction, and 50.2% less SIP isosurface error compared to the classical volume sampling approach. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods through experiments on synthetic and human‐brain HARDI datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Portable ultrahigh-vacuum sample storage system for polarization-dependent total-reflection fluorescence x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy

A portable ultrahigh-vacuum sample storage system was designed and built to investigate the detailed geometric structures of mass-selected metal clusters on oxide substrates by polarization-dependent total-reflection fluorescence x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (PTRF-XAFS). This ultrahigh-vacuum (UHV) sample storage system provides the handover of samples between two different sample manipulating systems. The sample storage system is adaptable for public transportation, facilitating experiments using air-sensitive samples in synchrotron radiation or other quantum beam facilities. The samples were transferred by the developed portable UHV transfer system via a public transportation at a distance over 400 km. The performance of the transfer system was demonstrated by a successful PTRF-XAFS study of Pt{sub 4} clusters deposited on a TiO{sub 2}(110) surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved quantitation of SIMS depth profile measurements of niobium via sample holder design improvements and characterization of grain orientation effects

The importance of SIMS analyses for “N-doped” impurity alloyed niobium and other surface-alloyed materials continues to increase. A major hurdle is the uncertainty of instrument calibration due to changes in sample height either from sample surface topography or from the sample holder itself. The CAMECA sample holder design allows for many types of samples to be analyzed. However, a drawback is that the holder faceplate can bend, contributing an uncertainty in the relative sensitivity factor (RSF) used to quantify the SIMS results. Here, we describe an improved sample holder having a reinforced faceplate, which prevents deflection and reduces uncertainty. Simulations show that the new design significantly reduces deflection from 10 μm to 5 nm. Sample measurements show a reduction of RSF uncertainty from this source from 4.1% to 0.95%. Grain orientation has long been suspected to affect RSF measurement as well. A bicrystal implant standard, consisting of randomly oriented and [001] grains, was successively rotated 15° between analyses. It was observed that 20% of the analyses performed on the randomly oriented grain exhibited anomalously high RSF values as well as slow sputter rates. These features were associated with the changing grain normal orientation with respect to the primary Cs + beam. The grain orientation associated with the rise in RSF was simulated and determined to be the [101] crystallographic plane, thus indicating that ion channeling was responsible for the significantly increased RSF. Focused ion beam analysis confirmed slower sputter rates for the cardinal crystallographic orientations, indicating that ion channeling occurred for each.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Effects of Sample Preparation on the Infrared Reflectance Spectra of Powders

While reflectance spectroscopy is a useful tool in identifying molecular compounds, laboratory measurement of solid (particularly powder) samples often is confounded by sample preparation methods. For example, both the packing density and surface roughness can have an effect on the quantitative reflectance spectra of powdered samples. Recent efforts in our group have focused on developing standard methods for measuring reflectance spectra that accounts for sample preparation, as well as other factors such as particle size and provenance. In this work, the effect of preparation method on sample reflectivity was investigated by measuring the directional-hemispherical spectra of samples that were hand-packed as well as pressed into pellets using an integrating sphere attached to a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer. The results show that the methods used to prepare the sample have a substantial effect on the measured reflectance spectra, as do other factors such as particle size.

FTIR↗
DOE OSTI2020

More chemical detection through less sampling: amplifying chemical signals in hyperspectral data cubes through compressive sensing

Compressive sensing (CS) is a method of sampling which permits some classes of signals to be reconstructed with high accuracy even when they were sampled at sub-Nyquist rates. In this paper we explore a phenomenon in which bandwise CS sampling of a hyperspectral data cube followed by reconstruction can actually result in amplification of chemical signals contained in the cube. Perhaps most surprisingly, chemical signal amplification generally seems to increase as the level of sampling decreases. In some examples, the chemical signal is significantly stronger in a data cube reconstructed from 10% CS sampling than it is in the raw, 100% sampled data cube. We explore this phenomenon in two real-world datasets including the Physical Sciences Inc. Fabry-Perot interferometer sensor multispectral dataset and the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab FTIR-based longwave infrared sensor hyperspectral dataset. Each of these datasets contains the release of a chemical simulant, such as glacial acetic acid, triethyl phospate, and sulfur hexafluoride, and in all cases we use the adaptive coherence estimator (ACE) to detect a target signal in the hyperspectral data cube. We end the paper by suggesting some theoretical justifications for why chemical signals would be amplified in CS sampled and reconstructed hyperspectral data cubes and discuss some practical implications.

Hyperspectral imagery, Compressive Sensing, single↗
DOE OSTI2014

Sample size requirements for estimating effective dose from computed tomography using solid-state metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor dosimetry

Purpose: Effective dose (ED) is a widely used metric for comparing ionizing radiation burden between different imaging modalities, scanners, and scan protocols. In computed tomography (CT), ED can be estimated by performing scans on an anthropomorphic phantom in which metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) solid-state dosimeters have been placed to enable organ dose measurements. Here a statistical framework is established to determine the sample size (number of scans) needed for estimating ED to a desired precision and confidence, for a particular scanner and scan protocol, subject to practical limitations. Methods: The statistical scheme involves solving equations which minimize the sample size required for estimating ED to desired precision and confidence. It is subject to a constrained variation of the estimated ED and solved using the Lagrange multiplier method. The scheme incorporates measurement variation introduced both by MOSFET calibration, and by variation in MOSFET readings between repeated CT scans. Sample size requirements are illustrated on cardiac, chest, and abdomen–pelvis CT scans performed on a 320-row scanner and chest CT performed on a 16-row scanner. Results: Sample sizes for estimating ED vary considerably between scanners and protocols. Sample size increases as the required precision or confidence is higher and also as the anticipated ED is lower. For example, for a helical chest protocol, for 95% confidence and 5% precision for the ED, 30 measurements are required on the 320-row scanner and 11 on the 16-row scanner when the anticipated ED is 4 mSv; these sample sizes are 5 and 2, respectively, when the anticipated ED is 10 mSv. Conclusions: Applying the suggested scheme, it was found that even at modest sample sizes, it is feasible to estimate ED with high precision and a high degree of confidence. As CT technology develops enabling ED to be lowered, more MOSFET measurements are needed to estimate ED with the same precision and confidence.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Multilevel, Hierarchical Sampling Technique for Spatially Correlated Random Fields

In this paper, we propose an alternative method to generate samples of a spatially correlated random field with applications to large-scale problems for forward propagation of uncertainty. A classical approach for generating these samples is the Karhunen--Loève (KL) decomposition. However, the KL expansion requires solving a dense eigenvalue problem and is therefore computationally infeasible for large-scale problems. Sampling methods based on stochastic partial differential equations provide a highly scalable way to sample Gaussian fields, but the resulting parametrization is mesh dependent. We propose a multilevel decomposition of the stochastic field to allow for scalable, hierarchical sampling based on solving a mixed finite element formulation of a stochastic reaction-diffusion equation with a random, white noise source function. Lastly, numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the scalability of the sampling method as well as numerical results of multilevel Monte Carlo simulations for a subsurface porous media flow application using the proposed sampling method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

RT-QuIC detection of chronic wasting disease prion in platelet samples of white-tailed deer

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease of captive and free-ranging cervids. Currently, a definitive diagnosis of CWD relies on immunohistochemistry detection of PrP Sc in the obex and retropharyngeal lymph node (RPLN) of the affected cervids. For high-throughput screening of CWD in wild cervids, RPLN samples are tested by ELISA followed by IHC confirmation of positive results. Recently, real-time quacking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) has been used to detect CWD positivity in various types of samples. To develop a blood RT-QuIC assay suitable for CWD diagnosis, this study evaluated the assay sensitivity and specificity with and without ASR1-based preanalytical enrichment and NaI as the main ionic component in assay buffer. A total of 23 platelet samples derived from CWD-positive deer (ELISA +/IHC +) and 30 platelet samples from CWD-negative (ELISA-) deer were tested. The diagnostic sensitivity was 43.48% (NaCl), 65.22% (NaI), 60.87% (NaCl-ASR1) or 82.61% (NaI-ASR1). The diagnostic specificity was 96.67% (NaCl), 100% (NaI), 100% (NaCl-ASR1), or 96.67% (NaI-ASR1). The probability of detecting CWD prion in platelet samples derived from CWD-positive deer was 0.924 (95% CRI: 0.714, 0.989) under NaI-ASR1 experimental condition and 0.530 (95% CRI: 0.156, 0.890) under NaCl alone condition. The rate of amyloid formation (RFA) was greatest under the NaI-ASR1 condition at 10 -2 (0.01491, 95% CRI: 0.00675, 0.03384) and 10 -3 (0.00629, 95% CRI: 0.00283, 0.01410) sample dilution levels. Incorporation of ASR1-based preanalytical enrichment and NaI as the main ionic component signifcantly improved the sensitivity of CWD RT-QuIC on deer platelet samples. Blood test by the improved RT-QuIC assay may be used for antemortem and postmortem diagnosis of CWD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗