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At least 685 records · Page 38

Predicted galaxy counts in CO emission

The CO galaxy counts are predicted from studies of LCO in nearby galaxies, with consideration given to how these counts may be compared to the current understanding of recent galaxy evolution. The average number of galaxies per square degree with CO (1-0) emission above a brightness threshold of 4.5 x 10 exp -20 W/sq m is predicted to be 0.5 +/-4.0. The expressed uncertainty in the predicted galaxy counts comes primarily from uncertainties in the absolute scale and high-luminosity cutoff of the CO luminosity function. Using present-technology mm-radio telescopes and receivers, it is possible to employ galaxy counts in CO (1-0) emission to test theories of recent (z is less than about 0.4) galaxy evolution. If it is true that interactions among galaxies and consequent starbursts were more common in the recent past, as suggested by galaxy counts at far-IR and cm-radio wavelengths, then it is anticipated that the molecular emission of galaxies will increase with redshift and the CO galaxy counts will exceed this prediction based on nearby galaxies.

Verter, Frances↗

Prediction of ice accretion on a swept NACA 0012 airfoil and comparisons to flight test results

In the winter of 1989-90, an icing research flight project was conducted to obtain swept wing ice accretion data. Utilizing the NASA Lewis Research Center's DHC-6 DeHavilland Twin Otter aircraft, research flights were made into known icing conditions in Northeastern Ohio. The icing cloud environment and aircraft flight data were measured and recorded by an onboard data acquisition system. Upon entry into the icing environment, a 24 inch span, 15 inch chord NACA 0012 airfoil was extended from the aircraft and set to the desired sweep angle. After the growth of a well defined ice shape, the airfoil was retracted into the aircraft cabin for ice shape documentation. The ice accretions were recorded by ice tracings and photographs. Ice accretions were mostly of the glaze type and exhibited scalloping. The ice was accreted at sweep angles of 0, 30, and 45 degrees. A 3-D ice accretion prediction code was used to predict ice profiles for five selected flight test runs, which include sweep angle of zero, 30, and 45 degrees. The code's roughness input parameter was adjusted for best agreement. A simple procedure was added to the code to account for 3-D ice scalloping effects. The predicted ice profiles are compared to their respective flight test counterparts. This is the first attempt to predict ice profiles on swept wings with significant scalloped ice formations.

Reehorst, Andrew L.↗

Predictive control and estimation - State space approach

A modified output prediction procedure and a new controller design based on the predictive control law are presented. A new predictive estimator enhances system performance. The predictive controller was designed and applied to the tracking control of the NASA/JPL 70-m antenna. Simulation results show significant improvement in tracking performance over the linear quadratic controller and estimator presently in use.

Gawronski, W.↗

Interval prediction in structural dynamic analysis

Methods for assessing the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models are examined with attention given to the effects of modal mass, stiffness, and damping uncertainties. The methods are based on a nondeterministic analysis called 'interval prediction' in which interval variables are used to describe parameters and responses that are unknown. Statistical databases for generic modeling uncertainties are derived from experimental data and incorporated analytically to evaluate responses. Covariance matrices of modal mass, stiffness, and damping parameters are propagated numerically in models of large space structures by means of three methods. The test data tend to fall within the predicted intervals of uncertainty determined by the statistical databases. The present findings demonstrate the suitability of using data from previously analyzed and tested space structures for assessing the predictive accuracy of an analytical model.

Hasselman, Timothy K.↗

Predicted and measured in-flight wing deformations of a forward-swept-wing aircraft

An electrooptical flight-deflection measurement system (FDMS) is described in terms of its use in structural testing of the composite forward-swept wing of the X-29 aircraft. The wing deflected shapes measured using the present system are compared to the shapes predicted by NASTRAN and other codes as well as data from ground-test load measurements. The electrooptical FDMS is based on a control unit, two receivers, a target driver, and 12-16 IR LED targets. The FDMS determines the in-flight deflected wing shapes at a variety of altitudes at Mach 0.9, and the results are compared to the analytically predicted wing-twist distributions. The FDMS data describe the predicted increasing streamwise twist with increasing dynamic pressure and suggest that the streamwise twist is more prevalent at the inboard measurement station than at the wing tip. This hook shape is not represented in the predicted data, and suggestions are given for improving the modeling of the X-29 wing.

Lokos, William A.↗

Fatigue delamination onset prediction in unidirectional tapered laminates

Tapered (0 deg) laminates of S2/CE9000 and S2/SP250 glass/epoxies, and IM6/1827I graphite/epoxy were tested in cyclic tension. The specimens usually showed some initial stable delaminations in the tapered region, but these did not affect the stiffness of the specimens, and loading was continued until the specimens either delaminated unstably, or reached 10(exp 6) to 2 x 10 (exp 7) million cycles with no unstable delamination. The final unstable delamination originated at the junction of the thin and tapered regions. A finite-element model was developed for the tapered laminate with and without the initial stable delaminations observed in the tests. The analysis showed that for both cases the most likely place for an opening (Mode I) delamination to originate is at the junction of the taper and thin regions. For each material type, the models were used to calculate the strain energy release rate, G, associated with delaminations originating at that junction and growing either into the thin region or tapered region. For the materials tested, cyclic G(sub Imax) values from DCB tests were used with the maximum strain energy release rates calculated from the finite-element analysis to predict the onset of unstable delamination at the junction as a function of fatigue cycles. The predictions were compared to experimental values of maximum cyclic load as a function of cycles to unstable delamination from fatigue tests in tapered laminates. For the IM6/1827I and S2/SP250 laminates, the predictions agreed very well with the test data. Predicted values for the S2/CE9000 were conservative compared to the test data.

Murri, Gretchen B.↗

The role of predicted solar activity in TOPEX/Poseidon orbit maintenance maneuver design

Following launch in June 1992, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite will be placed in a near-circular frozen orbit at an altitude of about 1336 km. Orbit maintenance maneuvers are planned to assure all nodes of the 127-orbit 10-day repeat ground track remain within a 2 km equatorial longitude bandwidth. Orbit determination, maneuver execution, and atmospheric drag prediction errors limit overall targeting performance. This paper focuses on the effects of drag modeling errors, with primary emphasis on the role of SESC solar activity predictions, especially the 27-day outlook of the 10.7 cm solar flux and geomagnetic index used by a simplified version of the Jacchia-Roberts density model developed for this TOPEX/Poseidon application. For data evaluated from 1983-90, the SESC outlook performed better than a simpler persistence strategy, especially during the first 7-10 days. A targeting example illustrates the use of ground track biasing to compensate for expected orbit predictions errors, emphasizing the role of solar activity prediction errors.

Frauenholz, Raymond B.↗

Prediction of thermal cycling induced matrix cracking

Thermal fatigue has been observed to cause matrix cracking in laminated composite materials. A method is presented to predict transverse matrix cracks in composite laminates subjected to cyclic thermal load. Shear lag stress approximations and a simple energy-based fracture criteria are used to predict crack densities as a function of temperature. Prediction of crack densities as a function of thermal cycling is accomplished by assuming that fatigue degrades the material's inherent resistance to cracking. The method is implemented as a computer program. A simple experiment provides data on progressive cracking of a laminate with decreasing temperature. Existing data on thermal fatigue is also used. Correlations of the analytical predictions to the data are very good. A parametric study using the analytical method is presented which provides insight into material behavior under cyclical thermal loads.

Mcmanus, Hugh L.↗

User's manual for the ALS base heating prediction code, volume 2

The Advanced Launch System (ALS) Base Heating Prediction Code is based on a generalization of first principles in the prediction of plume induced base convective heating and plume radiation. It should be considered to be an approximate method for evaluating trends as a function of configuration variables because the processes being modeled are too complex to allow an accurate generalization. The convective methodology is based upon generalizing trends from four nozzle configurations, so an extension to use the code with strap-on boosters, multiple nozzle sizes, and variations in the propellants and chamber pressure histories cannot be precisely treated. The plume radiation is more amenable to precise computer prediction, but simplified assumptions are required to model the various aspects of the candidate configurations. Perhaps the most difficult area to characterize is the variation of radiation with altitude. The theory in the radiation predictions is described in more detail. This report is intended to familiarize a user with the interface operation and options, to summarize the limitations and restrictions of the code, and to provide information to assist in installing the code.

Reardon, John E.↗

Unsteady blade pressures on a propfan: Predicted and measured compressibility effects

The effect of compressibility on unsteady blade pressures is studied by solving the three-dimensional Euler equations. The operation of the eight-bladed SR7L propfan at a 4.75 deg angle of attack was considered. Euler solutions were obtained for three Mach numbers, 0.6, 0.7 and 0.8, and the predicted blade pressure waveforms were compared with flight data. The comparisons show that in general, the effect of Mach number on pressure waveforms are correctly predicted. The change in pressure waveforms are minimal when the Mach number is increased from 0.6 to 0.7. Increasing the Mach number from 0.7 to 0.8 produces significant changes in predicted pressure levels. The predicted amplitudes, however, differ from measurements at some transducer locations. At all the three Mach numbers, the measured (installed propfan) pressure waveforms show a relative phase lag compared to the computed (propfan along) waveforms due to installation effects. Measured waveforms in the blade tip region show nonlinear variations which are not captured by the present numerical procedure.

Nallasamy, M.↗

Improved Performance and Safety for High Energy Batteries Through Use of Hazard Anticipation and Capacity Prediction

Prediction of the capacity remaining in used high rate, high energy batteries is important information to the user. Knowledge of the capacity remaining in used batteries results in better utilization. This translates into improved readiness and cost savings due to complete, efficient use. High rate batteries, due to their chemical nature, are highly sensitive to misuse (i.e., over discharge or very high rate discharge). Battery failure due to misuse or manufacturing defects could be disastrous. Since high rate, high energy batteries are expensive and energetic, a reliable method of predicting both failures and remaining energy has been actively sought. Due to concerns over safety, the behavior of lithium/sulphur dioxide cells at different temperatures and current drains was examined. The main thrust of this effort was to determine failure conditions for incorporation in hazard anticipation circuitry. In addition, capacity prediction formulas have been developed from test data. A process that performs continuous, real-time hazard anticipation and capacity prediction was developed. The introduction of this process into microchip technology will enable the production of reliable, safe, and efficient high energy batteries.

Atwater, Terrill↗

Prediction of stiffener-skin separation in composite panels

A methodology was developed to predict the failure of stiffened composite panels by stiffener-skin separation. The methodology is applicable to curved or flat panels under combined uniaxial compression and in-plane shear loads. The analytical crux of the methodology are two different analysis packages: PACL1, which predicts the stress and displacement fields in a stiffened postbuckled panel; and WEBSTER, which predicts the local interfacial (shear and normal) stresses at the skin and stiffener flange junction. PACL1 is a Rayleigh-Ritz analysis of curved composite panels loaded into a post-buckling range. WEBSTER is a two-dimensional elasticity analysis for the skin-stiffener interface. Results of the predictive methodology are given.

Kan, Han-Pin↗

Prediction of Chemical Vapor Deposition Rates on Monofilaments and Its Implications for Fiber Properties

Deposition rates are predicted in a cylindrical upflow reactor designed for chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on monofilaments. Deposition of silicon from silane in a hydrogen carrier gas is chosen as a relevant example. The effects of gas and surface chemistry are studied in a two-dimensional axisymmetric flow field for this chemically well-studied system. Model predictions are compared to experimental CVD rate measurements. The differences in some physical and chemical phenomena between such small diameter (about 150 microns) fiber substrates and other typical CVD substrates are highlighted. The influence of the Soret mass transport mechanism is determined to be extraordinarily significant. The difficulties associated with the accurate measurement and control of the fiber temperature are discussed. Model prediction sensitivities are investigated with respect to fiber temperatures, fiber radii, Soret transport, and chemical kinetic parameters. The implications of the predicted instantaneous rates are discussed relative to the desired fiber properties for both the batch and the continuous processes.

Gokoglu, S. A.↗

Prediction of engine and near-field plume reacting flows in low-thrust chemical rockets

A computational model is employed to study the reacting flow within the engine and near-field plumes of several small gaseous hydrogen-oxygen thrusters. The model solves the full Navier-Stokes equations coupled with species diffusion equations for a hydrogen-oxygen reaction kinetics system and includes a two-equation q-omega model for turbulence. Predictions of global performance parameters and localized flowfield variables are compared with experimental data in order to assess the accuracy with which these flowfields are modeled and to identify aspects of the model which require improvement. Predicted axial and radial velocities 3 mm downstream of the exit plane show reasonable agreement with the measurements. The predicted peak in axial velocity in the hydrogen film coolant along the nozzle wall shows the best agreement; however, predictions within the core region are roughly 15 percent below measured values, indicating an underprediction of the extent to which the hydrogen diffuses and mixes with the core flow. There is evidence that this is due to three-dimensional mixing processes which are not included in the axisymmetric model.

Weiss, Jonathan M.↗

A comparison of arcjet plume properties to model predictions

This paper describes an experimental study of the plasma plume properties of a 1 kW class hydrogen arcjet thruster and the comparison of measured temperature and velocity field to model predictions. The experiments are based on laser-induced fluorescence excitation of the Balmer-alpha transition. The model is based on a single-fluid magnetohydrodynamic description of the flow originally developed to predict arcjet thruster performance. Excellent agreement between model predictions and experimental velocity is found, despite the complex nature of the flow. Measured and predicted exit plane temperatures are in disagreement by as much as 2000K over a range of operating conditions. The possible sources for this discrepancy are discussed.

Cappelli, M. A.↗

Comparison of GLIMPS and HFAST Stirling engine code predictions with experimental data

Predictions from GLIMPS and HFAST design codes are compared with experimental data for the RE-1000 and SPRE free piston Stirling engines. Engine performance and available power loss predictions are compared. Differences exist between GLIMPS and HFAST loss predictions. Both codes require engine specific calibration to bring predictions and experimental data into agreement.

Geng, Steven M.↗

Quantifying predictability variations in a low-order ocean-atmosphere model - A dynamical systems approach

The predictability of the weather and climatic states of a low-order moist general circulation model is quantified using a dynamic systems approach, and the effect of incorporating a simple oceanic circulation on predictability is evaluated. The predictability and the structure of the model attractors are compared using Liapunov exponents, local divergence rates, and the correlation and Liapunov dimensions. It was found that the activation of oceanic circulation increases the average error doubling time of the atmosphere and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by 10 percent and decreases the variance of the largest local divergence rate by 20 percent. When an oceanic circulation develops, the average predictability of annually averaged states is improved by 25 percent and the variance of the largest local divergence rate decreases by 25 percent.

Nese, Jon M.↗

The effect of ocean tides on the earth's rotation as predicted by the results of an ocean tide model

The published ocean tidal angular momentum results of Seiler (1991) are used to predict the effects of the most important semidiurnal, diurnal, and long period ocean tides on the earth's rotation. The separate, as well as combined, effects of ocean tidal currents and sea level height changes on the length-of-day, UT1, and polar motion are computed. The predicted polar motion results reported here account for the presence of the free core nutation and are given in terms of the motion of the celestial ephemeris pole so that they can be compared directly to the results of observations. Outside the retrograde diurnal tidal band, the summed effect of the semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tides studied here predict peak-to-peak polar motion amplitudes as large as 2 mas. Within the retrograde diurnal tidal band, the resonant enhancement caused by the free core nutation leads to predicted polar motion amplitudes as large as 9 mas.

Gross, Richard S.↗