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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Statistical Approach for Determination of Graphite Nitridation Using Bayesian Model Comparison

A better estimation of surface reaction efficiency of semiconductor-grade graphite with atomic nitrogen, as well as the calibration error are calculated using Bayesian updating based on experimental data. Compared with a conventional deterministic model, the stochastic model approach is a powerful tool in the sense that the model is capable of taking into account underlying error correlations among the data quantities. In this paper, we investigate four different stochastic models (called “stochastic system model classes” herein) corresponding to different descriptions of modeling and measurement error structures, given one deterministic physical model. These stochastic system model classes differ in the covariance matrix structure that is used in the uncertainty model to represent uncertainties associated with the physical model and experimental measurements. For each model class, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the posterior probabilities of the physical model parameters as well as of the stochastic model parameters. Model comparison and selection are then applied based on two measures including Bayesian evidence and Bayesian information criterion, as well as the deviance information criterion. Both measures suggest the stochastic model class, which considers that a correlation between errors in two data quantities among different data points is the most plausible. With the stochastic model class, the range of uncertainty in surface reaction efficiency is estimated to be about two orders of magnitude at [Formula: see text].

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind Plant Performance Prediction Benchmark Phase 1 (Technical Report)

Financial risk resulting from the uncertainty associated with developing, owning, and operating wind power plants remains a barrier to reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). On average, modern wind power plants in the U.S. underperform their expected annual energy output by 3.5-4.5% , with many underperforming by over 10%. To compensate for this uncertainty, investors require a larger return on investment (ROI) and apply "knock-down" factors that mask much of the underlying sources of uncertainty. Wind energy projects thus have reduced access to low-cost capital. Furthermore, operating wind plants often take a simple approach to estimating operations & maintenance (O&M) costs (e.g. straight-line estimates based on similar plants), which can eat into profits. To overcome these issues, the wind industry must improve the models they use for estimating wind plant performance and operations. An industry consortium (IC) requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) lead a Department of Energy (DOE) working group to benchmark the accuracy of wind power plant energy predictions against real operational data. The IC was also motivated by DOE and NREL's potential to characterize systematic energy underperformance, identify sources of uncertainty, and explore root causes. The Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) project was created out of this request, and this report represents the successful completion of Phase 1 of the WP3 project. During the project, wind plant owners provided both pre-construction and operational data to NREL. The pre-construction data was provided to wind resource assessment (WRA) consultants so they could conduct energy yield assessments (EYA). NREL took all of the completed EYAs, along with the operational data, and conducted an operational assessment to benchmark the EYA results against actual operational data. Given the large amounts of sensitive data required for this effort, as well as historical opposition to sharing data within industry, successful completion of Phase 1 represents an unprecedented milestone for industry data sharing. To improve the accuracy and confidence of pre-construction EYAs, wind plant owners and investors need better, more certain, energy yield predictions. The WP3 Benchmark Project is an industry-driven response to this reality. For the first time, industry has taken the important step of working together at scale, sharing valuable operational data with DOE and NREL in order to investigate the sources of bias and uncertainty in these energy estimates. This IC provides wind plant preconstruction and operational data to NREL in an organized and documented fashion and provides guidance and feedback as needed. The IC also provides introspection of the design of experiment, key metrics of success, data challenges, analysis best practices, and quality of results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate estimation of angular power spectra for maps with correlated masks

A common procedure when analyzing maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) or other cosmological signals is the need to remove ("mask") regions of the maps that are heavily contaminated, e.g., by non-cosmological foreground emission. After applying such a mask, one must account for its effect when inferring statistical properties of interest, such as the angular power spectrum of the field in the original map. A widely used approach to correct for such mask-induced effects was presented by Hivon et al. (2002), now widely known as the "MASTER" formalism. However, it is often the case that the map and mask are correlated in some way, such as point source masks used in CMB analyses, which have nonzero correlation with CMB secondary anisotropy fields and other mm-wave sky signals. In such situations, the MASTER approach gives biased results, as it assumes that the unmasked map and mask have zero correlation. While such effects have been discussed before with regard to specific physical models, here we derive a completely general formalism for any case where the map and mask are correlated. We show that our result ("reMASTERed") reconstructs ensemble-averaged angular power spectra to effectively exact precision, with significant improvements over traditional estimators for cases where the map and mask are correlated. An important consequence of our result is that for maps with correlated masks, it is no longer possible to invert a simple equation to obtain the true power spectrum from the observed (masked) power spectrum. Instead, our result necessitates the use of forward modeling from theory space into the observable domain of the masked power spectrum. We publicly release our software implementation of these results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Systems Analysis Developed for All-Electric Aircraft Propulsion

There is a growing interest in the use of fuel cells as a power source for all-electric aircraft propulsion as a means to substantially reduce or eliminate environmentally harmful emissions. Among the technologies under consideration for these concepts are advanced proton exchange membrane (PEM) and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), alternative fuels and fuel processing, and fuel storage. A multidisciplinary effort is underway at the NASA Glenn Research Center to develop and evaluate concepts for revolutionary, nontraditional fuel cell power and propulsion systems for aircraft applications. As part of this effort, system studies are being conducted to identify concepts with high payoff potential and associated technology areas for further development. To support this effort, a suite of component models was developed to estimate the mass, volume, and performance for a given system architecture. These models include a hydrogen-air PEM fuel cell; an SOFC; balance-of-plant components (compressor, humidifier, separator, and heat exchangers); compressed gas, cryogenic, and liquid fuel storage tanks; and gas turbine/generator models for hybrid system applications. First-order feasibility studies were completed for an all-electric personal air vehicle utilizing a fuel-cell-powered propulsion system. A representative aircraft with an internal combustion engine was chosen as a baseline to provide key parameters to the study, including engine power and subsystem mass, fuel storage volume and mass, and aircraft range. The engine, fuel tank, and associated ancillaries were then replaced with a fuel cell subsystem. Various configurations were considered including a PEM fuel cell with liquid hydrogen storage, a direct methanol PEM fuel cell, and a direct internal reforming SOFC/turbine hybrid system using liquid methane fuel. Each configuration was compared with the baseline case on a mass and range basis.

Kohout, Lisa L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibrating Synchronous-Generator-Interfaced DG Models in Microgrids Using Multiple Event Data

Microgrids, consisting of distributed generators (DGs), loads, and energy storage systems, play an important role in future smart grids. In order to evaluate how microgrids operate and their dynamic response, it is necessary to develop accurate dynamic models of DGs in microgrids. This paper proposes a systematic method to calibrate synchronous-generator-interfaced DG models. Challenges associated with model validation in microgrids are analyzed. Underlying parameters are categorized into two groups, i.e., the steady-state parameters and time constants, which are estimated in two successive stages using multiple event data. This methodology ensures that the validated model with the estimated parameters are applicable for all events. A modified unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to deal with the cases in which measurement of power angle is unavailable. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using field test data of a 2.6 MVA diesel generator in a real microgrid.

Wang, Zhiwen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon isotope fractionation by an ancestral rubisco suggests that biological proxies for CO 2 through geologic time should be reevaluated

The history of Earth’s carbon cycle reflects trends in atmospheric composition convolved with the evolution of photosynthesis. Fortunately, key parts of the carbon cycle have been recorded in the carbon isotope ratios of sedimentary rocks. The dominant model used to interpret this record as a proxy for ancient atmospheric CO 2 is based on carbon isotope fractionations of modern photoautotrophs, and longstanding questions remain about how their evolution might have impacted the record. Therefore, we measured both biomass (ε p ) and enzymatic (ε Rubisco ) carbon isotope fractionations of a cyanobacterial strain ( Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942) solely expressing a putative ancestral Form 1B rubisco dating to ≫1 Ga. This strain, nicknamed ANC, grows in ambient pCO 2 and displays larger ε p values than WT, despite having a much smaller ε Rubisco (17.23 ± 0.61‰ vs. 25.18 ± 0.31‰, respectively). Surprisingly, ANC ε p exceeded ANC ε Rubisco in all conditions tested, contradicting prevailing models of cyanobacterial carbon isotope fractionation. Such models can be rectified by introducing additional isotopic fractionation associated with powered inorganic carbon uptake mechanisms present in Cyanobacteria, but this amendment hinders the ability to accurately estimate historical pCO 2 from geological data. Understanding the evolution of rubisco and the CO 2 concentrating mechanism is therefore critical for interpreting the carbon isotope record, and fluctuations in the record may reflect the evolving efficiency of carbon fixing metabolisms in addition to changes in atmospheric CO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aggregated DER_A Model Parameterization via Online Moving Horizon Estimation

Here, this paper introduces a methodology for parameterizing the DER_A model using a novel smooth mathematical representation, simplifying the process and preserving accuracy in modeling inverter-based generator (IBG). The methodology employs an online parameterization process that can operate in real-time. The model parameterization process is structured into five sequential steps, each targeting a specific aspect of the DER_A model through moving horizon estimation. This approach adapts to systems with varying voltage and frequency support requirements by selectively applying each step. Simulation results on systems with both known and unknown parameters validate the methodology’s effectiveness. The online moving horizon estimation technique accurately captures the dynamics of the overall system and ensures that the parameterized DER_A model closely mirrors the real system’s voltage, current, and power dynamics. The findings highlight the potential of this methodology to substantially improve and simplify the dynamic modeling of power systems, paving the way for more reliable and robust IBG and grid integration.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

FAD-Toolset (Floating Array Design Toolset) [SWR-26-056]

The Floating Array Design (FAD) Toolset is a collection of tools for modeling and designing arrays of floating offshore structures. It was originally designed for floating wind systems but has applicability for many offshore applications. A core part of the FAD Toolset is the floating array model, which serves as a high-level library for efficiently modeling a floating array, such as a floating wind array. It combines site condition information and a description of the floating array design, and contains functions for evaluating the array's behavior considering the site conditions. For example, it combines information about site soil conditions, mooring line loads, and an array's anchor characteristics to estimate the holding capacity of each anchor. The library works in conjunction with the tools RAFT, MoorPy, and FLORIS to model floating platforms, wind turbines, mooring systems, power cables, and array wakes respectively. Layered on top of the floating array model is a set of design tools that can be used for algorithmically adjusting or optimizing parts of the a floating array. Specific tools existing for mooring lines, shared mooring systems, dynamic power cables, static power cable routing, and overall array layout. These capabilities work with the design representation and evaluation functions in the floating array model, and they can be applied by users in various combinations to suit different purposes. In addition to standalone uses of the FAD Toolset, a coupling has been made with Ard, (https://github.com/NLRWindSystems/Ard) a sophisticated and flexible wind farm optimization tool. This coupling allows Ard to use certain mooring system capabilities from FAD to perform layout optimization of floating wind farms with Ard's more advanced layout optimization capabilities. The FAD Toolset works with the IEA Wind Task 49 Ontology (https://github.com/IEAWindTask49/Ontology), which provides a standardized format for describing floating wind farm sites and designs. See example use cases in our examples folder (https://github.com/NLRWindSystems/FAD-Toolset/blob/main/examples/README.md) For working with the library, it is important to understand the floating array model structure, which is described more here: https://github.com/NLRWindSystems/FAD-Toolset/blob/main/fad/README.md.

Sirkis, Leah [National Laboratory of the Rockies (↗
DOE OSTI2021

Methods for Estimating Dose from Galactic Cosmic Rays and Jovian Radiation Belts on Reduced-Order Monte Carlo Geometries

This document outlines the methods and tools developed to estimate dose rates from galactic cosmic rays and the trapped radiation belts surrounding Jupiter using Monte Carlo particle transport software. Furthermore, the techniques described here are specific for translating high-resolution MAVRIC models to analogous but lower resolution Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport (MCNP) code models to estimate charged particle effects on models originally developed to study neutral particles only. This capability was initially developed to predict doses to various components of dynamic radioisotope power systems for spaceflight applications, but the tools and methods can be easily applied to other problem geometries and expanded to other space radiation environments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the Gamma-Ray Emission Properties of the Globular Cluster M5 with the Fermi-LAT

Abstract We analyzed the globular cluster M5 (NGC 5904) using 15 yr of gamma-ray data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). Using rotation ephemerides generated from Arecibo and FAST radio telescope observations, we searched for gamma-ray pulsations from the seven millisecond pulsars (MSPs) identified in M5. We detected no significant pulsations from any of the individual pulsars. In addition, we searched for possible variations of the gamma-ray emission as a function of orbital phase for all six MSPs in binary systems, but we did not detect any significant modulations. The gamma-ray emission from the direction of M5 is well described by an exponentially cutoff power-law spectral model, although other models cannot be excluded. The phase-averaged emission is consistent with being steady on a timescale of a few months. We estimate the number of MSPs in M5 to be between 1 and 10, using the gamma-ray conversion efficiencies for well-characterized gamma-ray MSPs in the Third Fermi-LAT Catalog of Gamma-ray Pulsars, suggesting that the sample of known MSPs in M5 is (nearly) complete, even if it is not currently possible to rule out a diffuse component of the observed gamma rays from the cluster.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Computer Design Tool for Ceramic Receivers

Gen3 solar receivers and other components will experience a combination of high temperatures and high stress caused by thermal stress and internal pressure. Under these conditions metallic components, even those manufactured from nickel-based superalloys, have poor reliability. Engineering ceramics could be a solution, as these materials have excellent high temperature strength. However, accurately assessing the reliability of a ceramic component operating in these conditions requires an entirely different approach compared to metallic materials. This paper describes the implementation of statistical models for evaluating the reliability of high temperature ceramic components in srlife – an open-source software package for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar power equipment. This new capability allows users to make fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic component designs and to accurately assess the plant efficiency and economics of ceramic solar receivers and other components.

Messner, Mark (ORCID:0000000200404385)↗
NASA NTRS1981

Density power spectrum in the local interstellar medium

Observational evidence is presented for the existence of interstellar medium electron density irregularities over a wide range of scale sizes. Radio scattering observations associated with the wavenumber range of about 10 to the -11th to 10 to the -6th/m are consistent with a density spectrum of the wavenumber form -3.7 + or - 0.6. At lower spatial wavenumbers (10 to the -16th to 10 to the -18th/m) the power spectrum can be estimated by (1) computation of the density fluctuations near the outer scale of the spectrum, (2) comparison with density irregularities predicted by theoretical models of the interstellar medium, and (3) comparison with observations of the velocity structure function.

Armstrong, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Estimating unsteady aerodynamic forces on a cascade in a three-dimensional turbulence field

An analytical method has been developed to estimate the unsteady aerodynamic forces caused by flow field turbulence on a wind tunnel turning vane cascade system (vane set). This method approximates dynamic lift and drag by linearly perturbing the appropriate steady state force equations, assuming that the dynamic loads are due only to free stream turbulence and that this turbulence is homogeneous, isotropic, and Gaussian. Correlation and unsteady aerodynamic effects are also incorporated into the analytical model. Using these assumptions, equations relating dynamic lift and drag to flow turbulence, mean velocity, and vane set geometry are derived. From these equations, estimates for the power spectra and rms (root mean squared value, delta) loading of both lift and drag can be determined.

Norman, T.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Estimating unsteady aerodynamic forces on a cascade in a three-dimensional turbulence field

An analytical method has been developed to estimate tne unsteady aerodynamic forces caused by flow field turbulence on a wind tunnel turning vane cascade system (vane set). This method approximates dynamic lift and drag by linearly perturbing the appropriate steady state force equations, assuming that the dynamic loads are due only to free stream turbulence and that this turbulence is homogeneous, isotropic, and Gaussian. Correlation and unsteady aerodynamic effects are also incorporated into the analytical model. Using these assumptions, equations relating dynamic lift and drag to flow turbulence, mean velocity, and vane set geometry are derived. From these equations, estimates for the power spectra and rms (root mean squared value, delta) loading of both lift and drag can be determined.

Norman, T. R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Application of Landsat Thematic Mapper data for coastal thermal plume analysis at Diablo Canyon

The possibility of using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) thermal data to derive absolute temperature distributions in coastal waters that receive cooling effluent from a power plant is demonstrated. Landsat TM band 6 (thermal) data acquired on June 18, 1986, for the Diablo Canyon power plant in California were compared to ground truth temperatures measured at the same time. Higher-resolution band 5 (reflectance) data were used to locate power plant discharge and intake positions and identify locations of thermal pixels containing only water, no land. Local radiosonde measurements, used in LOWTRAN 6 adjustments for atmospheric effects, produced corrected ocean surface radiances that, when converted to temperatures, gave values within approximately 0.6 C of ground truth. A contour plot was produced that compared power plant plume temperatures with those of the ocean and coastal environment. It is concluded that Landsat can provide good estimates of absolute temperatures of the coastal power plant thermal plume. Moreover, quantitative information on ambient ocean surface temperature conditions (e.g., upwelling) may enhance interpretation of numerical model prediction.

Gibbons, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

X-ray evidence for particulate contamination on the AXAF VETA-1 mirrors

X-ray testing of the AXAF outer mirror pairs, in the VETA-1 configuration, reveals a point spread function (PSF) with unexpectedly large wings at low energies. Although the angular dependence in the wings of the PSF is close to that expected for diffractive scattering from surface roughness, the energy dependence differs substantially. Analyses of the observed X-ray PSF, images near ring focus, and single-quadrant images at conjugate focus suggest that the excess scattering observed at low X-ray energies results from diffractive scattering by relatively small grains (as small as a few tenths micrometer in radius). We develop a simple model for the contribution of scattering by particulates to the PSF. Merging this model with that for scattering by surface roughness, we fit the combined model to the observed energy-dependent PSF, in order to estimate parameters and associated uncertainties characterizing the grain-size distribution and the surface-roughness power spectral density. In particular, we find that the fractional coverage of the mirrors by particulates is approximately 1 x 10 exp -4 (for grain radii between 0.1 and 10 microns), and that the rms surface-roughness is approximately 0.7 nm (for spatial frequencies between 1/mm and 1000/mm).

O'Dell, S. L.↗