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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Local-scale panmixia in the lichenized fungus Xanthoria parietina contrasts with substantial genetic structure in its Trebouxia photobionts

Microsatellite markers can provide valuable information about gene flow and population history. We developed and tested new microsatellites for the nitrophilic lichenized fungus Xanthoria parietina and studied its genetic diversity and structure within the urban area of Munich, Bavaria. We compared its local genetic pattern with that of its photobiont partner Trebouxia decolorans, for which existing microsatellites were applied. For comparison, a reference site with clean air was included in the sampling. We found support for three genetic clusters in the fungus X. parietina, which occurred intermingled in collecting sites. There was a high degree of admixture within fungal populations and individuals, and analysis of molecular variance revealed a lack of population structure in the mycobiont. The Trebouxia photobiont, in contrast, exhibited structured populations which grouped into two to five genetic clusters, and individuals showed less admixture than in the mycobiont. This indicates that the two lichen partners differ in their ability to move around in the landscape. The microsatellite markers we report are polymorphic and are suitable for population genetic studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The impact of cold electrons and cold ions in magnetospheric physics

A review of the impact of the cold-ion and cold-electron populations in the Earth’s magnetosphere is presented in this paper. The cold populations are defined by total energy less than approximately 100 eV, i.e. in the energy range which is strongly affected by spacecraft charging and that often dominates the total plasma density. We also include the warm plasma cloak in the review, since it overlaps partially with the cold energy range and is a population that is still not well understood. The known impacts of cold ions and cold electrons that are discussed are: the source of magnetospheric plasma, solar-wind/magnetosphere coupling, magnetotail reconnection and substorms, Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities at the magnetopause, chorus, hiss, electromagnetic-ion-cyclotron and ultra-low-frequency wave-particle interactions, aurora structuring and spacecraft charging. Other possible impacts are associated with refilling on open-drift trajectories, the remnant layer and plasmapause disruption. A discussion of the difficulty of cold-plasma measurements and the need for new measurement techniques that measure the full cold-ion and cold-electron distribution functions is also presented. There remain a lot of unknowns about the cold-ion and cold-electron populations, associated with their origin, properties, drivers and impacts. These populations will need to be fully understood before the magnetosphere-ionosphere system can be fully understood.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Process-based Model with Temperature, Water, and Lab-derived Data Improves Predictions of Daily Culex pipiens/restuans Mosquito Density

While the number of human cases of mosquito-borne diseases has increased in North America in the last decade, accurate modeling of mosquito population density has remained a challenge. Longitudinal mosquito trap data over the many years needed for model calibration, and validation is relatively rare. In particular, capturing the relative changes in mosquito abundance across seasons is necessary for predicting the risk of disease spread as it varies from year to year. We developed a discrete, semi-stochastic, mechanistic process-based mosquito population model that captures life-cycle egg, larva, pupa, adult stages, and diapause for Culex pipiens (Diptera, Culicidae) and Culex restuans (Diptera, Culicidae) mosquito populations. This model combines known models for development and survival into a fully connected age-structured model that can reproduce mosquito population dynamics. Mosquito development through these stages is a function of time, temperature, daylight hours, and aquatic habitat availability. The time-dependent parameters are informed by both laboratory studies and mosquito trap data from the Greater Toronto Area. The model incorporates city-wide water-body gauge and precipitation data as a proxy for aquatic habitat. This approach accounts for the nonlinear interaction of temperature and aquatic habitat variability on the mosquito life stages. We demonstrate that the full model predicts the yearly variations in mosquito populations better than a statistical model using the same data sources. This improvement in modeling mosquito abundance can help guide interventions for reducing mosquito abundance in mitigating mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Phylogeography of the blacklegged tick ( Ixodes scapularis ) throughout the USA identifies candidate loci for differences in vectorial capacity

Abstract The blacklegged tick ( Ixodes scapularis ( Journal of the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia , 1821, 2 , 59)) is a vector of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto ( s.s .) ( International Journal of Systematic Bacteriology , 1984, 34 , 496), the causative bacterial agent of Lyme disease, part of a slow‐moving epidemic of Lyme borreliosis spreading across the northern hemisphere. Well‐known geographical differences in the vectorial capacity of these ticks are associated with genetic variation. Despite the need for detailed genetic information in this disease system, previous phylogeographical studies of these ticks have been restricted to relatively few populations or few genetic loci. Here we present the most comprehensive phylogeographical study of genome‐wide markers in I. scapularis , conducted by using 3RAD (triple‐enzyme restriction‐site associated sequencing) and surveying 353 ticks from 33 counties throughout the species' range. We found limited genetic variation among populations from the Northeast and Upper Midwest, where Lyme disease is most common, and higher genetic variation among populations from the South. We identify five spatially associated genetic clusters of I. scapularis . In regions where Lyme disease is increasing in frequency, the I. scapularis populations genetically group with ticks from historically highly Lyme‐endemic regions. Finally, we identify 10 variable DNA sites that contribute the most to population differentiation. These variable sites cluster on one of the chromosome‐scale scaffolds for I. scapularis and are within identified genes. Our findings illuminate the need for additional research to identify loci causing variation in the vectorial capacity of I. scapularis and where additional tick sampling would be most valuable to further understand disease trends caused by pathogens transmitted by I. scapularis .

3RAD↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mapathons versus automated feature extraction: a comparative analysis for strengthening immunization microplanning

Background: Social instability and logistical factors like the displacement of vulnerable populations, the difficulty of accessing these populations, and the lack of geographic information for hard-to-reach areas continue to serve as barriers to global essential immunizations (EI). Microplanning, a population-based, healthcare intervention planning method has begun to leverage geographic information system (GIS) technology and geospatial methods to improve the remote identification and mapping of vulnerable populations to ensure inclusion in outreach and immunization services, when feasible. We compare two methods of accomplishing a remote inventory of building locations to assess their accuracy and similarity to currently employed microplan line-lists in the study area. Methods: The outputs of a crowd-sourced digitization effort, or mapathon, were compared to those of a machine-learning algorithm for digitization, referred to as automatic feature extraction (AFE). The following accuracy assessments were employed to determine the performance of each feature generation method: (1) an agreement analysis of the two methods assessed the occurrence of matches across the two outputs, where agreements were labeled as “befriended” and disagreements as “lonely”; (2) true and false positive percentages of each method were calculated in comparison to satellite imagery; (3) counts of features generated from both the mapathon and AFE were statistically compared to the number of features listed in the microplan line-list for the study area; and (4) population estimates for both feature generation method were determined for every structure identified assuming a total of three households per compound, with each household averaging two adults and 5 children. Results: The mapathon and AFE outputs detected 92,713 and 53,150 features, respectively. A higher proportion (30%) of AFE features were befriended compared with befriended mapathon points (28%). The AFE had a higher true positive rate (90.5%) of identifying structures than the mapathon (84.5%). The difference in the average number of features identified per area between the microplan and mapathon points was larger (t = 3.56) than the microplan and AFE (t = -2.09) (alpha = 0.05). Conclusions: Our findings indicate AFE outputs had higher agreement (i.e., befriended), slightly higher likelihood of correctly identifying a structure, and were more similar to the local microplan line-lists than the mapathon outputs. These findings suggest AFE may be more accurate for identifying structures in high-resolution satellite imagery than mapathons. However, they both had their advantages and the ideal method would utilize both methods in tandem.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence of Asexual Overwintering of Melampsora paradoxa and Mapping of Stem Rust Host Resistance in Salix

Melampsora rust is a devastating disease of shrub willow in North America. Previous work has identified Melampsora paradoxa as one of two identified rust species in New York State that infect Salix purpurea and other important Salix host species, however little is known about the population of this rust species in this region. Genotyping-by-sequencing was used to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and assess population diversity of M. paradoxa isolates collected from three Salix breeding populations in Geneva, NY between 2015 and 2020. Statistical analyses of SNP revealed that all isolates collected were clonally derived even though they were collected across years. In 2020, isolates were collected from stem infections where uredospore pustules were observed, and these isolates were also identical to M. paradoxa collected in previous seasons. These data suggest that M. paradoxa sampled across multiple years overwintered and reproduced asexually and that stem infection is a possible mechanism for overwintering, both of which are novel findings for this rust species. Additionally, field disease ratings were conducted on a S. purpurea × S. suchowensis F 1 breeding population with high disease severity, enabling the discovery of QTL for resistance on chromosomes 1 and 19. Lastly, Colletotrichum salicis was frequently associated with stem rust and may play a role in M. paradoxa stem infection. Together, this work is the first substantial exploration into M. paradoxa population biology, stem infection, and host resistance in Salix.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Model of Combined Community- and Jail-Based Take-Home Naloxone Distribution

Importance Opioid-related overdose accounts for almost 80 000 deaths annually across the US. People who use drugs leaving jails are at particularly high risk for opioid-related overdose and may benefit from take-home naloxone (THN) distribution. Objective To estimate the population impact of THN distribution at jail release to reverse opioid-related overdose among people with opioid use disorders. Design, Setting, and Participants This study developed the agent-based Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to model a synthetic population of individuals with and without a history of opioid use. Epidemiological data from 2014 to 2020 for Cook County, Illinois, were used to identify parameters pertinent to the synthetic population. Twenty-seven experimental scenarios were examined to capture diverse strategies of THN distribution and use. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical mediating and moderating variables associated with population impact and a proxy metric for cost-effectiveness (ie, the direct costs of THN kits distributed per death averted). Data were analyzed between February 2022 and March 2024. Intervention Modeled interventions included 3 THN distribution channels: community facilities and practitioners; jail, at release; and social network or peers of persons released from jail. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the percentage of opioid-related overdose deaths averted with THN in the modeled population relative to a baseline scenario with no intervention. Results Take-home naloxone distribution at jail release had the highest median (IQR) percentage of averted deaths at 11.70% (6.57%-15.75%). The probability of bystander presence at an opioid overdose showed the greatest proportional contribution (27.15%) to the variance in deaths averted in persons released from jail. The estimated costs of distributed THN kits were less than $\$$15 000 per averted death in all 27 scenarios. Conclusions and Relevance This study found that THN distribution at jail release is an economical and feasible approach to substantially reducing opioid-related overdose mortality. Training and preparation of proficient and willing bystanders are central factors in reaching the full potential of this intervention.

Tatara, Eric [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing digitized occurrence records of Midwestern feral Cannabis sativa to develop ecological niche models

Hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) has historically played a vital role in agriculture across the globe. Feral and wild populations have served as genetic resources for breeding, conservation, and adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, feral populations of Cannabis, specifically in the Midwestern United States, remain poorly understood. This study aims to characterize the abiotic tolerances of these populations, estimate suitable areas, identify regions at risk of abiotic suitability change, and highlight the utility of ecological niche models (ENMs) in germplasm conservation. The Maxent algorithm was used to construct a series of ENMs. Validation metrics and MOP (Mobility-oriented Parity) analysis were used to assess extrapolation risk and model performance. We also projected the final projected under current and future climate scenarios (2021–2040 and 2061–2080) to assess how abiotic suitability changes with time. Climate change scenarios indicated an expansion of suitable habitat, with priority areas for germplasm collection in Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. This study demonstrates the application of ENMs for characterizing feral Cannabis populations and highlights their value in germplasm conservation and breeding efforts. Populations of feral C. sativa in the Midwest are of high interest, and future research should focus on utilizing tools to aid the collection of materials for the characterization of genetic diversity and adaptation to a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution of genetic variation underlying adult migration timing in steelhead of the Columbia River basin

Abstract Fish migrations are energetically costly, especially when moving between freshwater and saltwater, but are a viable strategy for Pacific salmon and trout ( Oncorhynchus spp.) due to the advantageous resources available at various life stages. Anadromous steelhead ( O. mykiss ) migrate vast distances and exhibit variation for adult migration phenotypes that have a genetic basis at candidate genes known as greb1L and rock1 . We examined the distribution of genetic variation at 13 candidate markers spanning greb1L , intergenic, and rock1 regions versus 226 neutral markers for 113 populations ( n = 9,471) of steelhead from inland and coastal lineages in the Columbia River. Patterns of population structure with neutral markers reflected genetic similarity by geographic region as demonstrated in previous studies, but candidate markers clustered populations by genetic variation associated with adult migration timing. Mature alleles for late migration had the highest frequency overall in steelhead populations throughout the Columbia River, with only 9 of 113 populations that had a higher frequency of premature alleles for early migration. While a single haplotype block was evident for the coastal lineage, we identified multiple haplotype blocks for the inland lineage. The inland lineage had one haplotype block that corresponded to candidate markers within the greb1L gene and immediately upstream in the intergenic region, and the second block only contained candidate markers from the intergenic region. Haplotype frequencies had similar patterns of geographic distribution as single markers, but there were distinct differences in frequency between the two haplotype blocks for the inland lineage. This may represent multiple recombination events that differed between lineages where phenotypic differences exist between freshwater entry versus arrival timing as indicated by Micheletti et al. (2018a). Redundancy analyses were used to model environmental effects on allelic frequencies of candidate markers, and significant variables were migration distance, temperature, isothermality, and annual precipitation. This study improves our understanding of the spatial distribution of genetic variation underlying adult migration timing in steelhead as well as associated environmental factors and has direct conservation and management implications.

Collins, Erin E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Juvenile life history diversity is associated with lifetime individual heterogeneity in a migratory fish

Abstract Differences in the life history pathways (LHPs) of juvenile animals are often associated with differences in demographic rates in later life stages. For migratory animals, different LHPs often result in animals from the same population occupying distinct habitats subjected to different environmental drivers. Understanding how demographic rates differ among animals expressing different LHPs may reveal fitness trade‐offs that drive the expression of alternative LHPs and enable better prediction of population dynamics in a changing environment. To understand how demographic outcomes and their relationships with environmental variables differ among animals with different LHPs, we analyzed a long‐term (2006–2021) mark–recapture dataset for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) from the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA. Distinct LHPs represented in this population include either remaining in the natal stream until emigrating to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (natal‐reach rearing) or emigrating from the natal stream and rearing in downstream habitats for several months before completing the emigration to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (downstream rearing). We found that downstream‐rearing fish emigrated to the ocean 19 days earlier on average and returned as adults from the ocean at higher rates. We detected a positive correlation between rate of return from the ocean by downstream‐rearing fish and coastal upwelling in their spring of outmigration, whereas for natal‐reach‐rearing fish we detected a positive correlation with sea surface temperature during their first marine summer. Different responses to environmental variability should lead to asynchrony in adult abundance among juvenile LHPs. A higher proportion of downstream‐rearing fish returned at younger ages compared with natal‐reach‐rearing fish, which contributed to variability in age at reproduction and greater mixing across generations. Our results demonstrate how diversity in juvenile LHPs is associated with heterogeneity in demographic rates during subsequent life stages, which can in turn affect variance in aggregate population abundance and response to environmental change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering life history diversity in demographic analyses and provide insights into the effects of life history diversity on population dynamics and trade‐offs that contribute to the maintenance of life history diversity.

Sorel, Mark H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

How do Management Goals for Wild Chinook Salmon Align with Feasibility?

Evaluation of goals is crucial for effective management to conserve viable and diverse fish populations and to support harvest. Management of wild Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Snake River basin exemplifies the struggle to meet fisheries goals. Considering contemporary production of juvenile emigrants, it is imperative to determine the survival from emigration to adult ( S e‐a ) required to meet abundance goals. Increased anthropogenic impact on spawning and rearing habitats leads to higher S e‐a required to attain goals. Wilderness populations exhibit viability and could sustain fisheries with S e‐a lower than required elsewhere. Conversely, populations targeted for habitat restoration demand higher S e‐a to fulfill goals, indicating a need to enhance egg‐to‐smolt survival. However, S e‐a has fallen below the threshold needed for replacement in all populations, even at current low abundances. Despite these challenges, most populations still possess the potential to achieve abundance goals, emphasizing the importance of strategic interventions to bolster their resilience.

Copeland, Timothy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nutrient Restoration of a Large, Impounded, Ultra-Oligotrophic Western River to Recover Declining Native Fishes

Abstract Declines in many fish populations in large, western rivers have been primarily attributed to the anthropogenic reduction of nutrient inputs and subsequent impacts to the food web. The largest known river fertilization program was implemented starting in 2005 on the Kootenai River in northern Idaho to restore resident fisheries. Annual electrofishing surveys were conducted at multiple sites in Idaho and Montana before and during nutrient addition to evaluate assemblage and population-level responses. Although few responses in fish assemblage structure were observed, the addition of liquid ammonium polyphosphate fertilizer (3 μg/L) to the Kootenai River increased fish abundance and biomass over the 20-km stretch of river downstream of the treatment site. Increases were most notable in Largescale Suckers Catostomus macrocheilus, Mountain Whitefish Prosopium williamsoni, and Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss populations, although increases in catch and biomass were detected for nearly all fish species. The Kootenai River is approximately 30 times larger in discharge than other rivers that have been experimentally fertilized and provides compelling evidence that the mitigation of nutrient declines in rivers of similar size can result in positive influences on the fish populations where primary and secondary production are limiting growth, survival, and recruitment. However, results from our study also highlight the importance of completing evaluations across varying levels of biological organization (e.g., assemblage and population) and over biologically relevant timeframes.

Hardy, Ryan S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Review of Factors Affecting the Susceptibility of Juvenile Salmonids to Avian Predation

Abstract We reviewed studies of piscivorous colonial waterbird predation on juvenile salmonids to synthesize current knowledge of factors affecting fish susceptibility to avian predators. Specifically, we examined peer-reviewed publications and reports from academic, governmental, and nongovernmental agencies to identify commonalities and differences in susceptibility of salmonids to avian predation, with a focus on mark–recovery studies in the Columbia River basin. Factors hypothesized to influence salmonid susceptibility to avian predation were grouped into four general categories: (1) salmonid species and populations, (2) environmental factors, (3) prey density, predator density, and migration timing, and (4) prey characteristics. Our review focused on predation by Caspian terns Hydroprogne caspia, double-crested cormorants Nannopterum auritum, and gull species Larus spp. as these are the most well-studied avian predators of salmonids. Results indicated that predator–prey interactions varied across salmonid species and populations and species of avian predator. Inferences across studies supported multiple hypotheses regarding predator–prey dynamics, including environmental factors that influence prey exposure to predators (e.g., river flows, turbidity, alternative prey), variation in predator and prey abundances, predator characteristics (e.g., foraging behavior, colony location), and prey characteristics (e.g., fish length, condition). Mark–recovery studies of avian predation on fish populations have greatly improved our understanding of the factors affecting fish susceptibility to avian predation, the relative contributions of abiotic and biotic factors to predation susceptibility, and the extent to which avian predation affects fish survival and the viability of prey populations. Future studies that jointly model predation and survival and the factors affecting those processes will further broaden our understanding of predator–prey dynamics and directly evaluate the effects of predation on prey population dynamics.

Hostetter, Nathan J. (ORCID:0000000160752157)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demographic and genetic consequences of a steelhead supplementation program

Abstract Objective Supplementation of naturally spawning populations by the addition of hatchery-spawned individuals is commonly conducted for recovery of threatened and endangered populations and to support harvest opportunities. Our objective was to evaluate whether the use of a juvenile captive broodstock and an integrated paradigm could increase returns of steelhead, the anadromous form of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, while avoiding negative genetic impacts commonly associated with hatchery propagation. Methods We analyzed 291 genetic markers in adult steelhead returning to an integrated population in southwest Washington over the course of 15 years. Reproductive success (RS) of fish spawning in the natural environment was evaluated by origin (hatchery versus natural) and return year. Data were then pooled over years to maximize sample sizes for comparing RS estimates among groups (i.e., estimation of relative reproductive success [RRS]). Result We observed a weak relationship between RS and origin (male p = 0.347; female p = 0.066), but a significant relationship between RS and return year (male p < 0.001, η2 = 0.896; female p ⟨ 0.001, η2 = 0.867) (i.e., hatchery- and natural-origin fish did well or poorly together each year). Estimates of RRS for fish spawned in the hatchery ranged from 2.4 to 6.4, indicating that fish spawned in the hatchery produced more returning adult progeny than did fish allowed to spawn in the natural environment. Estimates of RRS were ⟨1.0 for hatchery-origin fish spawning in the natural environment, but the difference was nonsignificant for males and marginally significant for females. Hatchery-origin fish exhibited reduced genetic diversity as well as evidence of increased temporal population structure. Conclusion We conclude that the program was successful in achieving an increase in adult returns but not in avoiding negative genetic effects on the population and that any lasting impacts of supplementation remain to be determined.

Smith, Christian T. (ORCID:0000000240522669)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural architecture search via similarity adaptive guidance

Evolutionary neural network architecture search (ENAS) has attracted the attention of many experts due to its global optimization capabilities to automatically search for convolutional neural network architectures based on the target task. The current search space for ENAS is not to design a fully structured network, but to search for smaller cell architectures to reduce search costs. However, blind search strategies do not effectively utilize the potential experience of the population. In order to utilize the potential experience learned by the current population to guide the evolutionary search of the population, we propose a similarity guided neural network architecture search algorithm based on cell architecture, which utilizes the similarity between pairwise architectures in the population as empirical knowledge learned by the population. Our proposed algorithm provides a novel method for calculating architecture similarity, which calculates architecture similarity separately from the cell and macro-structure. Then we decouple the connections and operations in the cell and calculate connection and operation similarity separately. In addition, we propose adaptive similarity selection and binary tournament selection strategies to enhance the algorithm’s global and local search capabilities and effectively explore the search space. Finally, we design an improved single-point crossover operator to enhance the local search ability of the evolutionary operator. The experimental results show that SAGNAS is a competitive algorithm that achieves 97.44% and 81.60% in CIFAR10 and CIFAR100 with only 1.9 GPU-days spent.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-throughput screening tools facilitate calculation of a combined exposure-bioactivity index for chemicals with endocrine activity

High-throughput and computational tools provide a new opportunity to calculate combined bioactivity of exposure to diverse chemicals acting through a common mechanism. We used high throughput in vitro bioactivity data and exposure predictions from the U.S. EPA’s Toxicity and Exposure Forecaster (ToxCast and ExpoCast) to estimate combined estrogen receptor (ER) agonist activity of non-pharmaceutical chemical exposures for the general U.S. population. High-throughput toxicokinetic (HTTK) data provide conversion factors that relate bioactive concentrations measured in vitro (µM), to predicted population geometric mean exposure rates (mg/kg/day). These data were available for 22 chemicals with ER agonist activity and were estimated for other ER bioactive chemicals based on the geometric mean of HTTK values across chemicals. For each chemical, ER bioactivity across ToxCast assays was compared to predicted population geometric mean exposure at different levels of in vitro potency and model certainty. Dose additivity was assumed in calculating a Combined Exposure-Bioactivity Index (CEBI), the sum of exposure/bioactivity ratios. Combined estrogen bioactivity was also calculated in terms of the percent maximum bioactivity of chemical mixtures in human plasma using a concentration-addition model. Estimated CEBIs vary greatly depending on assumptions used for exposure and bioactivity. In general, CEBI values were <1 when using median of the estimated general population chemical intake rates, while CEBI were ≥1 when using the upper 95th confidence bound for those same intake rates for all chemicals. Concentration-addition model predictions of mixture bioactivity yield comparable results. Based on current in vitro bioactivity data, HTTK methods, and exposure models, combined exposure scenarios sufficient to influence estrogen bioactivity in the general population cannot be ruled out. Future improvements in screening methods and computational models could reduce uncertainty and better inform the potential combined effects of estrogenic chemicals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thirdhand tobacco smoke exposure increases the genetic background-dependent risk of pan-tumor development in Collaborative Cross mice

Increasing evidence has shown that thirdhand smoke (THS) exposure is likely to induce adverse health effects. An important knowledge gap remains in our understanding of THS exposure related to cancer risk in the human population. Population-based animal models are useful and powerful in investigating the interplay between host genetics and THS exposure on cancer risk. Here, we used the Collaborative Cross (CC) mouse population-based model system, which recapitulates the genetic and phenotypic diversity observed in the human population, to assess cancer risk after a short period of exposure, between 4 and 9 weeks of age. Eight CC strains (CC001, CC019, CC026, CC036, CC037, CC041, CC042 and CC051) were included in our study. We quantified pan-tumor incidence, tumor burden per mouse, organ tumor spectrum and tumor-free survival until 18 months of age. At the population level, we observed a significantly increased pan-tumor incidence and tumor burden per mouse in THS-treated mice as compared to the control (p = 3.04E-06). Lung and liver tissues exhibited the largest risk of undergoing tumorigenesis after THS exposure. Tumor-free survival was significantly reduced in THS-treated mice compared to control (p = 0.044). At the individual strain level, we observed a large variation in tumor incidence across the 8 CC strains. CC036 and CC041 exhibited a significant increase in pan-tumor incidence (p = 0.0084 and p = 0.000066, respectively) after THS exposure compared to control. We conclude that early-life THS exposure increases tumor development in CC mice and that host genetic background plays an important role in individual susceptibility to THS-induced tumorigenesis. Genetic background is an important factor that should be taken into account when determining human cancer risk of THS exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The role of geographical spreaders in infectious pattern formation and front propagation speeds

The pattern formation and spatial spread of infectious populations are investigated using a kernel-based Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered (SIR) model applicable across a wide range of basic reproduction numbers R O . The goal is to examine the role of geographical spreaders on transient spatial pattern formation of infectious populations and the associated maximum invasive front speeds c max . In the simulations conducted here, geographical spreaders are defined as a portion of the infected population Φ experiencing high mobility between identical communities. The spatial organization of the infected population and c max are determined when the infections are randomly initiated in space within multiple communities. For small but finite , scaling analysis and numerical simulations in 1-dimension suggest that when the spreading kernel is Gaussian-shaped, where is the inverse of the infectious duration. This finding for agrees with a diffusion-based representation of mobility in 1-D. Numerical simulations in 2-D across wide-ranging suggest that , the variance of the spatial kernel describing mobility of long-distance geographical spreaders across communities, determines the spatial organization of infections across communities. When (long-distance mobility, where is the minimum spatial extent defining adjacent communities), the infectious population will experience a transient but spatially coherent pattern with a wavelength that can be derived from the spreading kernel properties. Moreover, the 2-D simulations for the bounded kernel suggest that attainment of is also dictated by but the magnitude is not sensitive to unlike diffusion-based models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗